empirical research methods japanese voter paper

8/7/2019 Empirical Research Methods Japanese Voter Paper

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Japanese Voter Behavior

by:

Amy Russ

INTA 6003: Empirical Research Methods

Dr. Skelley-Jordan

Monday: 6:05-8:55


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American occupation of Japan ended on April 28, 1952. During the American occupation,

Japan was transformed into an image of a democratic republic, where voting would determine

the leaders of the country. Unlike the majority of democracies, Japan has had one political party

in power for over fifty years: the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This is a conundrum,

considering the fact that the nation has gone through many different political and economic

problems. This research project is an attempt to explain how one political party was able to

maintain political dominance, even through issues that would have caused a decrease in national

support.

As such, the purpose of this research is to better attempt to analyze Japanese voter

behavior by understanding the effects that this culture has on electorate behavior. In this regard,

this study will not use a comparative research methodology; instead, it will focus solely on

econometrics data that focuses on the results of Japanese elections. It will further explain the

problem and a research question will be proposed. Then, this essay will delve into a literature

review and critique the primary source of theoretical research entitled The Japanese Vote

(Flanagan et al. 1991). Additionally, this research will provide concise definitions for important

terminology, create a theory explaining Japanese electorate behavior, and propose a hypothesis to

test this theory. Lastly, there is a discussion on the data used to empirically study this theory, with

a focus on critically analyzing the variables and possible problems with this research.

The Problem and Research Question

Even though there are recent published works on Japanese voter behavior, there is one

major problems regarding this research: there has not been any research done that focuses on the

role of culture in Japanese voter choices. In particular, it has been assumed by authors such as

Scott C. Flanagan, Shinsaku Kohei, and Dr. Eiji Yamamura, that Japanese voter preferences are


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similar to American voter preferences. This does not take into account the strong sense of

community and group mentality within Japan. Another problem is that the primary research done

on Japanese voting, The Japanese Voter, is mostly based on comparative political thought: in

other words, the Japanese voter is not looked at from a singular view. This culminates in a lack

of data and political scientific analysis on the importance of community and social cohesion on

voting in Japan. The research question that will be analyzed and answered in this paper is: What

explains a Japanese candidate's success in an election? It is necessary to focus on the candidate

and not the party for two reasons: first, the Japanese political system favors candidate

interactions with the electorate and not partisanship and second, the political parties, including

the LDP, rely heavily on candidates influences with the electorate (this will be explained in more

detail later in the research). By analyzing this question, the research will be able to bridge the

gap between social influences and voting in Japan.

Literature Review

Before determining a proper response to the problem of the lack of understanding of

Japanese mass voting, it is necessary to perform a literature review of the work done regarding

this subject. Research of Japanese voting behavior is very rare in American journals.

Additionally, analysis of this behavior is primarily used in a comparative political context and

rarely analyzed on its own. This has created significant problems in Japanese voter analysis. In

particular, analysis on this subject was primarily done in sporadic instances, with a strong

concentration in the late 1980s, and then some major articles published during the mid-1990s and

early 2000s that expand on the points raised in the work published by Flanagan et. al.

Furthermore, articles written by authors such as Christopher J. Anderson and Jun Ishi that are

used in this research contain mixture of ideas that attempt to determine the main influence on


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voting behavior; however, they rarely take into account culture. Therefore, the literature review

will focus primarily on The Japanese Voterand will use articles to illustrate the support of this

work.

Flanagan et. al use a comparative political approach, collecting data from the United

States and Western European countries on their voting behavior and comparing it to data from

Japanese elections. In and of itself, this book is a valuable resource when attempting to gain a

basic grasp of the primary methods that have been used by political scientist to understand voter

behavior. Furthermore, each author specializes in a particular area of voter behavior; as such, the

book is organized into chapters where each author expresses his or her knowledge on voter

behavior in America and then compares it to data and statistics on Japanese voter behavior to

reach a conclusion about what influences Japanese voters. The authors support their findings

using two main sources: opinion polls done by different Japanese newspapers and a study done

by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center. Through these two sources, The

Japanese Voterattempts to analyze electorate behavior.

The main argument of the book is that voting behavior can be analyzed using two

different methodologies: the sociological and the social psychological. Both ways focus on the

process that a voter goes through when making a decision; however, each one emphasizes a

different aspect of that process. The sociological approach focuses on the idea of social conflict

and the necessity for groups to ban together to gain political power so that their political will can

be accomplished. On the other hand, the social psychological approach focuses on three points:

party identification, candidate evaluation, and attitudes toward certain issues. Flanagan et. al

use a comparative approach in their work. They determined that by in a comparison of the voting

preferences of American voters and Japanese voters, Japanese voters approach the process of


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voting in a similar manner as citizens of other democratic nations. After an analysis of both the

sociological and the social psychological approach to voting, surveys and some voting data, the

authors determine that the social psychological approachthe approach that also describes

Western voting behaviorbest explains the actions of voters in Japan.

The social psychological approach is more focused on the beliefs of the individual actor.

Indeed, "the political attitudes of the individual voter" are considered to be the primary

determinate within this approach (Flanagan et al. 1991, 11). The main data used to support this

idea is a University of Michigan Survey performed once in 1954 and again in 1960. This study is

supportive of the social psychological approach to the analysis of electoral behavior in Japan

because:

Voters were seen as influenced by primarily three basic attitudes on current issues

loyalties to political parties, evaluation of candidates, and attitudes on current issues-and

their choices in particular elections were believed to represent the net sum of thesedifferential forces operating on individual electoral decisions (Flanagan et. al. 1991, 12).

Each of these three attitudes composes a particular idea that guides voter's when determining the

proper candidate. Moreover, they are either thought to have long-term or short-term effects on

voter's decisions.

Party loyalty is seen to have a lasting effect on voter habits. When discussing party

loyalty it is " believed to develop primarily through early formative experiences and exposure to

partisan symbols within the parental family" (Flanagan et al. 1991, 12). Party identification is

considered to be one of the primary influences regarding voter mentality because of the

longstanding emotions that are associated with it. In particular, the fact that family party

behavior will influence a future voter's behavior creates a multi-faceted aspect of party loyalties.

Party identification is considered to be stable over time, tends to intensify as voters grow older

and have a strong correlation with attitudes towards candidates and political issues (Flanagan et


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al. 1991, 12). Party loyalty has longstanding emotional attachments that make it one of the

primary variables used when describing voter behavior. It is thought that Japanese voters are

constantly viewing political communications regarding party policy and party politics. This

bombardment of images starts at a young age as parents are influenced by these images and pass

these influences to their children.

Under the social psychology approach, the second attitude, candidate evaluation is more

or less a product of exposure to "appeals of specific campaigns, given the assumption that

candidates were fairly temporary phenomena and salient mainly during the months prior to

election" (Flanagan et al. 1991, 12). This attitude is not as stable as party identification, simply

because candidates can either be forgotten (this is usually the case if they are not elected to

office) or their constituency lost confidence in their ability (if they are elected to office and

voters feel that the candidate did a poor job). Candidate evaluation is influenced by many

different social influences. Some of these influences include "the presence of local elites who

manipulate the vote, community norms and group processes that encourage conformity, cultural

values that emphasize personal linkages over abstract ties, and social exchange practices

dictating that gifts often be given for the favor of a vote" (Yamamura 11). Even with the presence

of the social influences of candidate evaluation, Flanagan, et al. still view it as a short term

influence on voting behavior.

Lastly, "issue attitudes were believed to develop mainly from experiences and

communications exposure at the time of a specific election campaign, or in the case of some

issues longer duration, stimuli that were sustained over the period of several campaigns"

(Flanagan, et al. 1991, 12). Flanagan, et al. determined that issue attitudes did not have a long-

term effect on voting. The is because voters are interested in many issues; however, it is possible


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that there is one issue they may have stronger feelings toward and will base their vote on that

particular issue (Flanagan, et al. 1991, 31-32). But the authors argue that because political,

social, and economic issues change rapidly, the main issue more than likely changes frequently.

Hence, all the authors draw the conclusion that issue attitudes must be a short-term factor within

Japanese politics.

Criticism of The Japanese Voter

There are some important problems regarding the research done in The Japanese Voter.

All of the authors agree that issue attitudes are short-term and that the social psychology

approach is the best approach. However, the authors seem to ignore the possibility of long-term

political and economic issues and the sociological perspective of voting. In particular, the

authors's use of the comparative method of empirical analysis leads to the conclusion that

Japanese voters are similar to American voters in that they are more individualistic when making

choices. By studying Japanese culture and history, it appears that this assumption is not

completely based on culture norms and social ideas. The problem of assuming that these issues

are short-term is that it ignores the importance of international prestige that has been a common

guide to Japan since the Meiji Restoration. In addition, through an understanding of the

sociological approach, it soon becomes apparent that it fits the cultural mentality of Japan. It

closely explains Japanese culture beliefs by illustrating the importance of civic groups.

One problematic assumption is the authors' classification of issue attitudes. As stated

above, the authors determine that issue attitudes are only short-term in duration. However, that is

not always the case. Issue attitudes have a mixed duration because the issues depend on the

amount of exposure toward the issue voters receive before, during and after election campaigns

(Flanagan, et. a 1991, 11). However, issues such as trade and economic decline have a longer


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lasting duration in Japan because of the long-term effects the issues have on the Japanese society.

With the opening of the Japanese market to more global influences "Japan's success abroad has

affected farmers because it exposes them to increased competition" (Anderson and Ishii 1997,

623). Just as in many industrial nations, agriculture policy is a policy that brings together a

generally small, but quickly mobilized and highly organized base of voters. As such, to assume

that this issue is also short-term is very questionable. Another long lasting issue is how voters

view Japan's standing within the international community:

There have been a number of recent suggestions that Japan's domestic political

developments areat least partlyinfluenced by the country's position in the

international political economy and by the government's pursuit of internationallyoriented economic policy options (Anderson and Ishii 1997, 622).

The electorate most often views any loss in international prestige negatively. Indeed, this

mentality can be traced throughout Japanese history. Even before World War II, the Japanese felt

that the alternative of submitting to pressure from the West would lower their claim to state

sovereignty and make them easier targets for colonization (Duus 1998, 235). Hence, loss of

international prestige (often illustrated through trade deficits, international political reports, etc.)

is very much a longstanding issue in Japan.

Another problem with The Japanese Voteris that the authors do not attempt to create an

in-depth analysis on why the sociological method does not explain Japanese voter behavior. For

Flanagan, et al. the sociological perspective of voter preferences is based on Marxist theories

regarding social conflict and has a secondary component (1991, 10). The primary point focuses

purely on social issues that drive conflict and the need for political power among social groups.

Under this method, political parties in Japan are assumed to base "their appeals to emerging

electorates [were shaped] around basic social issues and the rhetoric of conflict among a society's

major social groupings" (Flanagan et al. 1991, 10). By emphasizing their ability tosolve certain


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issues, political parties are able to target certain social classes. The end result is that political

parties gather as much support for their solution from electorates as possible to win an

election. Through this conflict the modern party system is organized and institutionalized. In the

use of this approach, the Japanese voter is then based in a class system where certain parties

attract voters because of their interests in social cleavages and views on certain social interests

(Flanagan et al. 1991, 11). This methodology toward the analysis of mass voter behavior is

thought by the authors to have less potential to understand voting behavior.

However, this assumption is problematic when looking at the other aspect of the

sociological approach to mass electoral analysis. This approach states that people are attracted to

civic groups that represent personal beliefs. Therefore, the electorate is mobilized through

member ship in secondary organizations such as particular religious sects or trade unions"

(Flanagan et al. 1991, 11). Under this second axiom, the Japanese voter would have created or

joined civic groups to better mobilize and raise his or her class, interests, or ideology to a higher

position within the polity. Voters in these groups would be around people who have similar ideas

as themselves and would be better able to plan voting strategies to put the favored political

delegate in power. Flanagan, et al. dismisses the sociological approach because Japan lacks

basic religious, ethnic, and in recent times, regional cleavages that have been so important in the

structuring of party alignments (1991, 16).

Nevertheless, s this approach can be identified within Japanese society by realizing the

importance of the collective mentality. In some cases if a member does not vote or votes for

other candidates, he or she [can be] ostracized by the other members. When taking into account

the long-term relationship within such a community, the cost of exclusion from the community is

tremendously high (Yamamura 1992, 9). This idea of collective mentality is very much known


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to cultural experts of Japanese society. All the same, Flanagan, et al. only briefly analyze this

idea of collective mentality; thus, its potential to create a core concrete understanding of

Japanese behavior is not fully realized.

In summation, The Japanese Voterhas two primary problems: the first is its lack of

understanding and further expansion on the sociological approach to understanding mass

electorate elections and the second is its assumption of the idea that attitudes toward political and

economic issues are short-term. As such, this primary research work must be expanded upon to

fill in the holes within this field.

Operationalization: Definitions, Theory and Primary Hypothesis

Before discussing the research design of this project, it is necessary to first define certain

political terms that will be used. Clarifying terminology is a necessary part of any political

science research, especially considering that many terms have multiple definitions. As such, it is

important to use the definition that best fits into the social, political, and economic context of

Japan.These terms are: collectivist ideology, social political mobilization, and electorate.

Furthermore, there are important assumptions that are created from these definitions that create

the theory of this work and will lead to the creation of a hypothesis to test this theory.

Collectivist ideology can be considered to be the opposite of individualistic ideology.

Unlike individualist cultures, people in collectivist culture rarely see

themselves as acting as independent agents: in Japan, people rarely view

themselves as such (Kashima, et al. 1995, 925). This can be seen going as

far back to before the Meiji Restoration where the collectivity ethic within

the peasant villages . . .rested on a sense of commonality created by

common economic interests, the need to cooperate in daily life, and a sense


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of togetherness over time (Duus 1998, 11). Even today, collectivism is a

integral part of Japanese culture and it pervades all parts of society. An

example of this is that Japanese still view the model worker [as] the 'fanatic

company man' (mourtsu shain), who put all his energies into company work

and thought of little else (Duus 1998, 11). It is the model worker who

gives up vacation and some personal activities for the company. With such a

strong focus on the collective, it is much easier for both social and civic

groups to form and for people to join these groups.

This strong collectivism in Japan allows for the ease of social political mobilization.

Social mobilization is a broad-scale movement to engage people's participation to achieve a

specific development goal through self-reliant efforts (Haider 2005, 93). But, rarely does social

mobilization mean violence. This can be traced back to the pre-Meiji era, where if a group of

peasants were to protest certain laws, they would use a language of persuasion, calling on the

daimyo and his officials to act 'benevolently'. . . (Duus 1998, 34). In and of itself, social

mobilization is a non-violent, group effort that units groups with similar ideas to act for a

common purpose.

For this paper, social political mobilization will be represented using the JIBAN variable

found in Dr. Stephen Reed's data set (Reed, Steven R. The Japan Data Set, July 2007). Jiban

are"the strongly supportive network limited to a particular area and used to gain the majority of

the candidate's votes" (Yamamura 1992, 9). Unlike the koenkai,jiban are geographically

defined subconstituencies that a candidate will use to divide the electorate. This is essential

because thejiban will act as a base of operations for a candidate during an election.Koenkai, are

simply the groups within thejiban. In addition, they are similar to American grassroots groups


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for political parties. They form because it is acknowledged that a socially and culturally

homogeneous society can produce cohesiveness and collective action; the gaining of a benefit

from collective action is a common result within society (Yamamura 1992, 2). These groups

encompass many facets in the community including business owners, local government works

(in particular, postal workers) and members of the community. Just like American political

grassroots groups, Japanese citizens will join political interest groups to gain power within the

political body through support of their selective candidate. However, these groups have much

more in common with ancient Japanese villages than with their American counterparts. They are

not just active during the election season: they are very active all year, holding meetings

regarding political parties and candidates while also participating in party sponsored functions

and events. This leads to two important assumptions:

Assumption 1: Japanese culture and society has a strong collectivist ideology that leads

to easier social political mobilization.

Assumption 2: The idea of social mobilization can be expressed using the idea of jiban

groups.

Lastly, it is necessary to define what is the electorate in Japan. In other words, what is a

voter? Using Princeton University's WordNet Vocabulary software, a voter is a citizen with the

legal right to vote.* Under Japanese law, there is universal suffrage and anyone twenty or older

can vote. However, being a voter is not only about casting a ballot. It also entails the decision-

making process that voters go through before they decide on their candidate of choice. As such, it

is important to understand the Japanese voting laws. Voting laws are at least meant to be strict in

Japan: candidates cannot start campaigning for an election until weeks before it is time to vote.

For instance, the law stating that it is illegal for parties to mention the name of specific

* Princeton Universitys WordNet is a large lexical database of English, developed under the direction of George

A. Miller (Emeritus). Using this database, it is possible to look for concise definitions of words from different

dictionaries and other online education software. The url is: http://wordnet.princeton.edu


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candidates in campaign aids and other media is strictly enforced. Therefore, political campaigns

tend to be candidate centered with candidates communicating with voters through telephone

calls (Hayes 2009, 122).

On the other hand, jiban groups often ignore the laws regarding other political activities,

with little to no punishment resulting from their actions. As a result,jiban act as a constant

political base within communities for their particular candidate. These groups provide a wide

range of events for the constituents such as local fund- raisers, study groups,

cultural events (such as sumo matches), tours of the Diet, celebrations, and, in

some cases, trips to hot springs ( Hirano 2006, 57). Using these tactics, jiban groups

attempt to gain more votes for their particular candidate. Truly, the supportive network of the

candidate is required to engage in collective action within the community, and is therefore more

likely to be shaped to do so in a more organized society due to an abundant social capital"

(Yamamura 1992,11). With lack-luster voting laws and the politicians dependence on jiban

groups, this leads to the third important assumption:

Assumption 3: The electoral system allows for a strong candidate-electorate relationship

through jiban

Essentially, all of the above definitions, assumptions, and concepts discussed in this

portion of the research as well as in the criticism of the literature form the theory of this work. It

is theorized that Japanese voting behavior is best described using the sociological methodology.

This is because collectivist ideology is rampant in Japanese culture, which leads to the ease of

social mobilization and the creation of political groups. These groups, called jiban are

representative of social political mobilization in Japan because of their constant presence that

impacts voter decision-making. The primary hypothesis is based on the above theory and states:

When social political mobilization, represented through the proxy variable of JIBAN number


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increases within a candidate's camp, than the candidate will have a higher chance of winning an

election.

Research Design

I will be using data collected from Dr. Steven R. Reed, to test the correlation between

social political mobilization and a Japanese candidates ability to win an election. This data is

better for this particular subject because it focuses only on the Japanese voter. Furthermore, the

data used will focus primarily on the 1993 election year. The 1993 election year is considered to

be an indicator of the shift in Japanese politics because of the district restructuring and change in

the voter system that occurred. These two changes led to a change in how politicians interacted

with the electorate. Under the new combined system of the single-member district and

proportional representation, politicians must now work on gaining the support of swing voters

(voters who do not rely on party identification and who are much more interested in international

political and economic issues): single-seat districts accentuate the importance of swing voters

(Christensen, Ray. 2000, 187). These voters are not easily swayed by party pork-barrel politics.

As such, the change in the voting system and district restructuring created a need for politicians

to attempt to reach out to this core group of voters.

In addition, the data encompasses many variables; however, this work will focus on the

variables that fall into either the sociological approach for voter analysis or the social psychology

approach of data analysis. This is because it is necessary to empirically study all variables for

each methodology in this non-experimental project to decrease the possibility of a bias in the

result due to an omitted variable. Furthermore, there are three important precepts regarding what

politicians are used for the second of Dr. Reed's data collection:

1.) any candidate who ever ran for one of the parties listed in the

data set's Appendix A


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2.) any candidate who ever received at least 10,000 votes in the

district; and

3.) any candidate who finished ahead of a candidate who meets

either of the first two criteria. Candidates who changed districts must meetone of these criteria in each district to be included in that district. (Reed,

Steven R. The Japan Data Set July 2007).

Each of these precepts is logical when considering the exact nature of the voting and the

methodologies to be tested. Both precept 1.) and 2.) are illustrative of the attempt to capture as

much data as possible. This is key for this paper because it will attempt to use aggregate data

analysis to perform a statistical analysis based on the cross-sectional design. In other words, the

measurement of every independent and dependent variable is taken around the same time and the

researcher has no control over the independent variables (Johnson and Reynolds 155). This is

crucial when methodologies regarding voter behavior are being tested. By capturing large

indications of electorate behavior, a researcher is able to better generalize and create an

overarching thesis that can be tested in similar circumstances. Precept 3.) simply combines

precepts 1.) and 2.) so that all data sets regarding the candidates are similar in nature.

Description of Variables: Dependent Variable and Competing Hypotheses

The variables to be included in this research encompass many aspects of voter behavior.

However, not all aspects of voter behavior are easily measurable. As such, a few of the variables

will act as proxy variables. My main dependent variable is the total vote a candidate receives

1993. It is important to realize that a candidate's victory in an election does not also equal an

automatic victory for the candidate's party. One of the reasons is because the Japanese voting

system is a mixture of single member district elections and proportional representation votes.

Single member district elections run basically the same as American elections: meaning that a

person selects a candidate as their choice and submits the ballot. However, under the


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proportional representation system, a person receives a ballot where the parties running

candidates are listed. The voter puts the name of the party of choice on the piece of paper and

places it in a box (Hayes 2009, 122). In essence, a voter elects a party, and not a candidate. This

is confusing because many campaigns are not centered on a party: instead, campaigns are very

candidate centered (Hayes 2009, 122). Therefore, citizens will vote for a party that contains the

candidate that they want to elect.

With these two different systems of voting within Japan, it is practically impossible for

one party to have a majority vote in the Diet and coalitions governments are created from parties

with similar ideology once they are elected. As such, it is more empirically viable to use the total

votes a candidate receives versus the dichotomous variable ofwin/lose. My primary independent

variable is the social political mobilization, represented by the proxy variable JIBAN found in

Dr. Reed's data. As discussed earlier,jiban groups are representative of social political

mobilization because they are the groups that candidate's rely on to garner voter support. This

variable would be considered a concept that relates directly to the sociological methodology of

understanding voter behavior because it also encompasses civic groups. Additionally, it is

necessary to analyze competing hypotheses regarding candidate victories in an election. These

hypotheses will be operationalized with the variables: incumbency status, urban-rural measure,

and the camp and party variables.

Competing Hypothesis 1: Incumbency Status

The power of incumbents in Japanese elections center on their ability to use tactics from

previous elections to maintain their power. Indeed, incumbents and candidates who

ran in earlier elections also may benefit from the effects of prior campaign

sand efforts to maintain stable followings between elections (Richardson,


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Bradley. 1998, 708). One possible reason for this is because the candidate

has created a stable image for voters to focus upon, versus new candidates

who must work to create an politically favorable image. The image may

indicate that the candidate has opinions 'close to their own views,' was a

'clean and fresh' candidate, would help their area or occupation, or had 'deep

ties with the area' (Richardson, Bradley. 1998, 702). This reliance on

candidate images is directly related to the candidate-centered elections.

Candidates must build a strong support base; as such, they must create an

image that voters will respond favorably to. If a candidate is an incumbent,

he (or she) has already had the opportunity to create this image that voters

favor. As a result, the incumbent is able to better maintain the electorate's

support. The competing hypothesis is: if the candidate is an incumbent, than

the ability to win more votes will increase. If the regression is indicative of

this hypothesis, then this will indicate that candidate image is more

important in gaining votes than other factors.

Competing Hypothesis 2: Urban-Rural Vote

The change in the voting system in 1993 was an attempt to balance

the weight of the votes between the urban areas and the rural areas. The

voting system was highly unbalanced: the voter in the most rural district

had a voice three times as strong as the voter in the most urban (Duus,

Peter. 1998, 315). Before the change in the voting the system, the LDP was

able to maintain a strong support group within the rural sector:

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has relied upon the agricultural sector for strongelectoral support. The Diet members of the LDP have established a large voting


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constituency in rural areas. Given that other parties also regard the support of the

agricultural sector as being of utmost importance, the agricultural cooperative wields a

tremendous amount of political power (Yamamura, Eiji. 1992, 8).

The LDP politicians have been able to maintain this group by using their political power to give

them special favor and subsidies. The extent of this favoritism has been a source of contention

between the United States and Japan. However, in 1993, the voting system moved from the

multi-member district system to a mixture of single non-transferable vote (nicknamed first past

the post) and the proportional representation system (the number of seats a party receives relies

on thepercentage of national votes they receive) (Hayes, Louis. 2009, 135). These two systems

make it very difficult to rely on just one strong support base. Therefore, using the the 1993 year

and the variable created urban-rural, created by Dr. Steven Reed and coded by the Japanese

newspaper,Asahi Shibun, will test the validity of the hypothesis: if the candidate runs in a

mostly rural area and receives most of the rural votes, than the candidate's

ability to win more votes will increase.

Competing Hypothesis 3: Camp and Party

Lastly, the importance of the camp and party in Japanese politics is an

important competing hypothesis. Generally, it is assumed that the more

powerful the political party is, the higher the candidate's ability to receive

more votes. The LDP has demonstrated this hypothesis since 1955 by

maintaining its power within the government, until an election in 1993

removed the party from the government. However, what is interesting

regarding Japanese politics is that partisan identity is week among Japanese

voters. Steven Reed observes that between 40 and 55 percent of voters have

no partisan identity (Hayes, Louis. 2009, 69). But that does not mean that


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thepartyvariable should not be included in the data: indeed, the importance

of this variable is found when analyzing politicians constituencies. Parties

are important in Japanese politics because they are identified with certain

important civic groups within the nation. For instance, the LDP is associated

with farm civic groups.

In addition, Dr. Reed codes thejiban groups based on their general

political theological leanings using the CAMP variable: 1 = conservative

camp, 2 = socialist camp, 3 = Koumei camp, 4 = Communist camp, or 9 =

independents, no camp or camp unknown (Reed, Steven R. The Japan Data

Set July 2007). This is not the same variable as party: this variable is

representative of the factions within Japanese parties. In particular, factions

consist of members of the Diet who commit themselves to the leadership of

a senior party figure (Hayes, Louis. 2009, 74). It is necessary to distinguish

the difference between the two terms because a member of a political party

is often a member of a different faction that may have political ideology that

is different that the others. For instance, a member of the LDP may also be a

member of a faction within the party that usually votes favorably for socialist

ideas.

Critique of this Research

As in any research studying Japanese voting behavior, there are problems with this

paper's proposal, methodology, and data. One of these problems is the fact that this research will

not attempt to try and use variables that symbolize the third method of explaining voting

behavior. This method attempts to analyze the idea of expressiveness in voting behavior.* There

* Expressive voting focuses solely on the desire to express some desire that may not be found in the party or


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is a practical difficulty in identifying reasonable measures of expressiveness (Copeland and

Leband 2002, 352). This is difficult because any attempt to measure this kind of behavior must

attempt to measure certain human emotions. Empirically measuring human emotions is

complex and is something that political scientist are reluctant to due because of the intricacies of

human thought. Another problem is that any attempt to actually quantify this variable by using a

proxy method is problematic given the fact that this kind of behavior will need to be defined

narrowly; thus, leading to a lack of variability in a proposed explanatory variable (Copeland and

Leband 2002, 352). Because it is beyond the scope of this paper and the problem of the possible

lack of variability associated with this methodology, it will not be included in this report.

Another problem with this proposal is that cross-sectional designs improve external

validity at the expense of internal validity (Johnson and Reynolds 2008, 156). In other words,

the results of this research can be generalized; however, the ability to prove that social political

mobilization was the cause of the LDP's ability to maintain control of Japanese politics is

decreased. This is because cross-sectional experimental designs do not allow for the creation of a

control and experiment group, nor the control of the administration of the test stimulus. As such,

this project will have to rely on data analysis techniques to isolate the impacts of different

variables; however, these techniques are problematic because it is difficult to determine ifall

relevant variables have been identified (Johnson and Reynolds 2008, 157). Even though use of

cross-sectional analysis makes it difficult to improve internal validity, it is an integral aspect of

this research. As stated above, the only cross-sectional data used in The Japanese Voteris data

collected from United States citizens. For there to be a truly comprehensive understanding of

Japanese voter behavior it is necessary to use cross-sectional data that is taken from a population

candidate that a voter would normally vote for. As a result, the voter will elect someone in another party that may

not exemplify their personal beliefs. A complete analysis of this subject is beyond the scope of this paper. For

more detailed information regarding this methodology and the possible theoretical consequences, please see Arye

L. Hillman's Expressive Behavior in Economics and Politics.


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with a close relation to the units of analysis.

Lastly, the data set used for this research does not take into account candidate focused

variables that include gender, education, age, etc. This could be problematic because of the

importance of each of these variables in most case studies regarding elections. However, Japan is

a different case. Statistically, women make up about 7.3% of the 480-member Lower House and

it has been proven that there is a gender gap within Japanese politics (Mitsui, Mariko. 2000, 1).

This gender gap surrounds candidate elections. For candidate elections, the gender gap occurs

because of the candidate election system:

In most constituencies, the Lower House adopts a single-seat system in which only onecandidate is elected. Under the system, each political party fields only one candidate. In

order to increase the number of women representatives, more women have to run forelection. In order to be a major candidate, however, a woman has to win the party ticket

by defeating an incumbent male representative. But generally the only instance in which a

new candidate can replace an incumbent is when she or he is lucky to take over the

heritage from the incumbent. It is known in Japanese as jiban, which is a firmlyprotected support base, kanban, strong name value, and kaban, literally a suitcase,

but implying a large amount in campaign funds. Therefore, it is almost impossible for

an ordinary citizen to run for a single-seat constituency, much less for an ordinarywoman who is economically disadvantaged (Mitsui, Mariko. 2000, 1).

With the entrenchment of the candidate support system, it is very difficult for

new candidates to enter into the political arena. As the above quote stated,

without a strong support base, family name, and campaign funds, it is

generally impossible to run for an election. However, the only way to gain

these three requirements is to already be an successor of the previous

incumbent. Women are very rarely chosen to fill such political roles. As such,

gender in Japanese candidate status is not necessarily an integral variable

when analyzing the ability of a candidate to win because there are few

women who participate in elections. Similarly, both education and age are


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generally uniform across candidates. For education, most politicians go to

school either at Tokyo University of Kyoto University. Moreover, most

politicians are in their early 40s to late 50s when the first start their political

career. Therefore, the lack of inclusion of candidate focused variables may

not be as problematic because of the uniformity of candidates within

Japanese politics.

Robustness Checks

First, a bivariate regression was run to test for multicollinearity

between the independent variables. There were some variables that had

significantly high correlations, such as jiban and the urban-rural measure

(Pearson's r=-.085); however, the correlation was not significant enough to

lead to the removal of either variable. As illustrated in Appendix A, urban-

rural has a correlation with jiban, camp, and party with a Pearson's rof -.085,

-.047, .012, respectfully. However, these responses are not strong enough to

warrant the removal of any variable (the decision rule being that the

absolute value of the Pearson's rmust be greater than or equal to

.90).

After this, three graphs were created: a histogram, a normal plot

distribution, and a scatterplot. The histogram illustrates the regression-

standardized residuals of total vote. Most of the bars are in the area of

-2


23/31

plot creates a line and plots the regression-standardized residuals against it.

The residuals tend to follow this normal linearity, also indicating normal error

distribution. Moreover the scatterplot of the residuals plotted against the

predicated dependent variable result for each independent variable does

display the normal trend.

Results and Implications for Future Research

A linear, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was run with the

dependent variable as total vote (totvot) and the independent variables as:

urban-rural measure (ur), camp (camp), party (pty), incumbency status (inc),

and jiban (jiban). The variable that is statistically significant is the urban rural

measure, with beta of .545, t(866)=18.975,p


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groups. However, the results support the idea that before the redistricting of

the urban and rural areas, rural areas had a higher percentage of votes per

population than the urban areas. Indeed, as Peter Duus comments in one of

the most rural districts, it took only 81,400 votes t win a Diet seat in the

1982 election, but it took 326,350 votes in a heavily urban district . . .in

other words, the voter in the most rural district had a voice three times as

strong as the voter in the most urban district. (1998, 315). Thus, if a

candidate could gain control of rural areas, than the candidate would have a

stronger chance of winning the election. This implies that the importance of

a party, camp, or ajiban is insignificant in comparison to the voting power of

the rural areas.


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Appendix A: Descriptive Statistics and Correlations

Descriptiv

e Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

jiban 63798.39 37364.236 866

inc .52 .500 866

pty 4.12 3.693 866

camp 2.08 1.656 866

ur 2.68 1.042 866


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Correlation

s

jiban inc pty camp

u

r

jiban Pearson Correlation 1 .061 -.027 .011 -.085

*

Sig. (2-tailed) .071 .435 .747 .012

N 866 866 866 866 866

inc Pearson Correlation .061 1 -.444** -.319** -.047

Sig. (2-tailed) .071 .000 .000 .167

N 866 866 866 866 866

pty Pearson Correlation -.027 -.444** 1 .201** .102**

Sig. (2-tailed) .435 .000 .000 .003

N 866 866 866 866 866

camp Pearson Correlation .011 -.319**

.201**

1 .036

Sig. (2-tailed) .747 .000 .000 .292

N 866 866 866 866 866

ur Pearson Correlation -.085* -.047 .102** .036 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .012 .167 .003 .292

N 866 866 866 866 866

*.

Correlation

is

significantat the 0.05

level (2-

tailed).

**.

Correlation

is

significant

at the 0.01

level (2-

tailed).


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Appendix B: Regression Results

Model

Summaryb

Model

R R Square Adjusted R Square

Std.

Erro

r of

the

Esti

mat

e

dim

ensi

on0

1 .551a

.304 .300 165617.845

a.

Predictors:

(Constant),

jiban,

camp, ur,

pty, inc

b.

Dependent

Variable:

totvote


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Coeffici

entsa

Model

Unstand

ardized

Coefficie

nts Standardized Coefficients

t Sig.

95.0% Confidence Interval

for B Correlations

B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound

Zero-

order Partial

1 (Constan

t)

24945

6.799

23108.645 10.795 .000 204100.854 294812.744

ur 10348

2.704

5453.639 .545 18.975 .000 92778.703 114186.705 .549 .543

camp 519.2

43

3599.658 .004 .144 .885 -6545.899 7584.385 .020 .005

pty 226.3

47

1712.687 .004 .132 .895 -3135.188 3587.882 .056 .005

inc 5496.

283

13049.873 .014 .421 .674 -20117.046 31109.611 -.018 .014

jiban -.259 .152 -.049 -1.706 .088 -.556 .039 -.094 -.058


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Appendix C: Charts


30/31

Appendix C con.

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Horiuichi, Yusaku and Jun Saito. Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences ofElectoral Reform in JapanAmerican Journal of Political Science. Vol. 47, No. 4, (2003):

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