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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN
Prepared for:
SaskCulture
Saskatchewan Parks and Recreation Association
Sask Sport
May 26, 2014
Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor
444 19th AvenueRegina, Saskatchewan
S4N 1H1 306-522-5515
OUTLINE
RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN
• BIRTHS AND DEATHS
• MIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION
• URBANIZATION
AGE STRUCTURES AND TRENDS
• BOOM, BUST, AND ECHO
• TRENDS TO 2020
• RECENT IMMIGRANTS
• THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION
May 26, 2014 2
RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
NOTES
There are three interrelated factors that determine the size and structure of the provincial population.
• The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths.
• The movement to or from other countries, emigration or immigration, comprises net international migration.
• The migration to or from other provinces is called net interprovincial migration.
These factors affect the age of the population as well as the absolute size. They are related in complex ways.
Most demographic data are published on a “census year” basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year.
Unless otherwise indicated, the data in this section are from Statistics Canada’s CANSIM database. The figures from 2006 to date are preliminary and subject to revisions. The forecasts and estimates are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor.
May 26, 2014 4
DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: NATURAL GROWTH
In this figure, the number of births is the blue line and the number of deaths the red line. The difference between the two (that is, the natural growth rate) is represented by the yellow bars.
After dropping throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, the natural growth rate has been increasing since the early 2000s.
The increase in births is the result of a) more young women in the province and b) a slight increase in fertility rates.
The steady counts for the number deaths is because lower mortality rates are offset by an increasing number of people in older age groups.
May 26, 2014 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1996-1997
1998-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
2004-2005
2006-2007
2008-2009
2010-2011
2012-2013
July to June
Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in Saskatchewan,1996-97 to 2012-13
Births
Deaths
Natural Increase
thousands
DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
As with the previous figure, immigration is the blue line and emigration the red line. The difference between the two (i.e. net international immigration) is represented by the yellow bars.
Immigration has increased exponentially because of the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP). The number of immigrants is still small, however, compared with other provinces
These figures do not include temporary residents - the temporary foreign workers or foreign students.
May 26, 2014 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1996-1997
1998-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
2004-2005
2006-2007
2008-2009
2010-2011
2012-2013
July to June
International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) to/from Saskatchewan, 1996-97 to 2012-13 est
Immigration
EmigrationNet Flow
thousands
DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION
Interprovincial in-migration is the blue line and interprovincial out-migration the red line in this figure. The difference between the two (i.e. net interprovincial migration) is represented by the yellow bars.
In the mid 2000s, the number of people moving to Saskatchewan from other provinces increased while the number leaving declined. Net interprovincial flow is positive for the first time since the early 1980s.
After declining to 15,000 per year in the late 2000s, the number of persons leaving Saskatchewan is increasing again.
May 26, 2014 7
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996-1997
1998-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
2004-2005
2006-2007
2008-2009
2010-2011
2012-2013
July to June
Interprovincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan1996-97 to 2012-13 estimate
Incoming
Outgoing
Net Flow
thousands
TOTAL PROVINCIAL POPULATION
Note that the vertical scale in this figure has been compressed; it covers a relatively narrow range of populations.
The net effect of all the population flows has been, until recently, a downward trend in the provincial population.
The reversal in interprovincial migration together with the increase in immigration has added more than 100,000 people since the mid 2000s.
The annual growth rate is near 2.0% in the past few years and is the highest it has been since the 1970s.
May 26, 2014 8
900
920
940
960
980
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
as of July:
Total Provincial Population
thousands
CONTINUED URBANIZATION
Much of the recent population growth has occurred in the province’s metropolitan areas (the cities including the surrounding “bedroom” communities).
From 2006, to 2011, 77% of the population growth occurred in these eight large centres. They now account for 60% of the population.
All of the eight urban centres except Moose Jaw are growing more quickly than the rural and smaller urban centres.
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2.2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.7%
1.3%
0% 1% 2% 3%
Saskatoon CMA
Estevan CA
Regina CMA
North BattlefordCA
Swift Current CA
Prince Albert CA
Yorkton CA
Moose Jaw CA
Rural and smallerurban
Saskatchewan
average annual increase from 2006 to 2011
Population Growth for Urban Areas, 2006 to 2011
POPULATION PROJECTION TO 2025
This population projection is based on a forecast prepared by Sask Trends Monitor in 2008. It should be updated but the total population projections remain quite close to the actual figures.
The projection is relatively optimistic and assumes:
• no change in fertility or mortality rates;
• continued immigration of 10,000 per year; and
• a gradual return to zero for net interprovincial migration.
The population reaches 1.2 million by 2020 and 1.3 million by 2025.
May 26, 2014 10
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
as of July:
Total Provincial Population, Actual and Projected
thousands
projected
(in 2008)
actual
SUMMARY
The long term pattern in Saskatchewan has been a net outflow of people to other provinces. This reversed abruptly starting in the mid 2000s. If immigration remains high, the population will reach 1.2 million by 2020 and 1.3 million by 2025.
The three factors affecting the size of the provincial population have been positive in recent years, creating a kind of “perfect storm” for population growth. The population changed from July 2012 to July 2013, for example, by:
• +5,400 from natural growth;
• +9,500 from international migration; and
• +1,800 from interprovincial migration.
Regina and Saskatoon (and the bedroom communities around the cities) are getting a disproportionately large share of the population growth but not all of it.
Demographic patterns are slow to change. Unless there is a dramatic economic downturn, we can expect the population to continue to grow in the short term. And most of the growth will be in the large urban centres.
May 26, 2014 11
AGE STRUCTURES
AGE OF THE SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION IN 2013
May 26, 2014 13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81
age as of July 2013
Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, as of July 2013
Baby Boomers
Born 1946 to 1964
Generation Y
the Millenials
Born 1985 to 2004
Bust or Gen X
Born 1965 to 1984
thousands
PROJECTED AGE OF THE SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION IN 2023
May 26, 2014 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
Projected Population by Individual Years of Age, 2023
Baby Boomers
Born 1946 to 1964
Generation Y
the Millenials
Born 1985 to 2004
Bust or Gen X
Born 1965 to 1984
thousands
Gen Z
Born after 2004
POPULATION GROWTH TO 2023 BY AGE GROUP
In the next ten years, we can expect that the fastest growing age groups will be:
• those in the 25 to 44 age group along with their children; and
• those in the 65 to 74 age group.
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0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
under 15
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
Age Distributions, Saskatchewan
2013 Actual
2023 Projected
AGE OF ABORIGINAL POPULATION, 2013 AND 2023
Saskatchewan’s Aboriginal population is relatively young and it will remain soin the short term.
There will be a substantial increase in the number of Aboriginal people in the family formation age group (25 to 34) in the next ten years.
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0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
under 15
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
Age Distributions, Saskatchewan's Aboriginal Population
2013 Estimate
2023 Projected
AGE OF IMMIGRANT POPULATION, 2013 AND 2023
The population projection assumes that future immigrants to Saskatchewan will continue to be young adults.
We can expect many more immigrants in the 15 to 44 age group over the next ten years as well as some flows into older age groups.
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0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
under 15
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
Age Distributions, Saskatchewan's Immigrant Population
2013 Estimate
2023 Projected
PROJECTED DIVERSITY IN 2023 BY AGE GROUP
Diversity will be most pronounced among those in the family formation age group (15 to 34) and among their children.
Notwithstanding the increases, non-Aboriginal people born in Canada are still dominant in each age group.
May 26, 2014 18
18%
22%
17%
13%
13%
11%
7%
14%
5%
14%
12%
13%
12%
8%
6%
8%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
under 15
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
All Ages
Projected Age Distributions in 2023
Non-Aboriginal Born in Canada Aboriginal Immigrant
RESIDENCE OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS, 2011
The vast majority of recent immigrants in Saskatchewan live in the major urban centres.
Looked at another way, three quarters of recent immigrants lived in either Regina or Saskatoon in 2011.
We expect the growth in immigration over the next ten years to be concentrated in large urban centres as well.
May 26, 2014 19
4.5%
3.9%
3.7%
3.5%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.1%
2.7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Saskatoon CMA
Regina CMA
Swift Current CA
North Battleford CA
Moose Jaw CA
Prince Albert CA
Estevan CA
Yorkton CA
Rural and smaller urban
Saskatchewan
Recent Immigrants (in Canada less than five years) as a Percentage of the Population, 2011
RESIDENCE FOR THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION, 2011
Aboriginal people are much more common in northern cities such as Prince Albert and North Battleford.
There is also a significant proportion living in rural areas and small towns, including Reserves.
In 2011, 57% of Aboriginal people lived outside the major urban centres and 28% lived in either Regina or Saskatoon.
Urbanization is expected to continue over the next ten years.
May 26, 2014 20
38.5%
22.2%
10.0%
9.5%
9.3%
5.0%
4.2%
2.8%
22.2%
15.6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Prince Albert CA
North Battleford CA
Yorkton CA
Regina CMA
Saskatoon CMA
Estevan CA
Moose Jaw CA
Swift Current CA
Rural and smaller urban
Saskatchewan
Aboriginal Population as a Percentage of the Population, 2011
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS
The Philippines accounted for 37% of recent immigrants in Saskatchewan in 2011.
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10,090
1,755
1,415
1,085
1,050
800
700
635
560
430
425
400
385
7,195
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Philippines
China
India
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Pakistan
USA
Burma (Myanmar)
South Korea
Viet Nam
Iraq
Russia
Colombia
All others
Country of Origin for Recent Immigrants (after 2006), Saskatchewan, 2011
SUMMARY
The “baby boom” generation is now in their fifties and early sixties.
In the next ten years, we can expect that the fastest growing age groups will be:
• those in the 25 to 44 age group along with their children; and
• those in the 65 to 74 age group.
Diversity will be most pronounced among those in the family formation age group (15 to 34) and among their children.
The vast majority of recent immigrants in Saskatchewan live in the major urban centres. Aboriginal people, on the other hand, are more common in northern cities such as Prince Albert and North Battleford and more common in rural areas.
May 26, 2014 22
COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS?