emerging shifts and impacts on hospitality - 10 may 2013
TRANSCRIPT
This talk provides some views on how external shi4s outside the hotel industry could provoke key changes across the hospitality sector over the next decade or so
Contents
• Context – Foresight and Future Agenda • Macro Trends for the Next Decade • Six Key Shi+s and Implica3ons for Hospitality
1. Flexible Urban Spaces 2. Sustainable ConsumpBon 3. Access Not Ownership
4. Trusted Data 5. Curated Experiences 6. AlternaBve Currencies
• Key Challenges for Hotel Brands
As change accelerates in an increasingly connected world, more companies are looking further ahead to be>er understand emerging opportuni?es and challenges
Context -‐ Foresight
Organisa?ons increasingly want to iden?fy and understand both the an?cipated and unexpected changes
so that they can be be>er prepared for the future
Context -‐ Foresight
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight programme that accesses mul?ple views of the next decade
so all can be be>er informed and s?mulate innova?on
By 2020 the popula?on will have grown by 700m with many of us living longer: A good number of us will be in marginal regions
that are unable to accommodate extra growth
Imbalanced Popula?on Growth Certain?es
We will see economic, physical and poli?cal shortages of key materials that significantly change our perspec?ves especially
around access to food, water and land
Key Resource Constraints Certain?es
The centre of gravity of global wealth is accelera?ng to Asia faster than expected: Western influence is simultaneously
decreasing in many high-‐growth markets
Asian Wealth Shi4 Certain?es
We will finally be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can benefit from a network connec?on will have one and all
will have the poten?al to access more informa?on
Ubiquitous Data Access Certain?es
By 2020 75% of us will live in urban environments and these will increasingly be dense ci?es – more like
Paris and Hong Kong than LA or Mexico City.
Dense Ci?es Shi4 1: Flexible Urban Spaces
Midi-‐city clusters will be of growing significance with 400 middleweight ci?es in emerging markets genera?ng
40% of global growth in the next 15 years.
Midi City Clusters Shi4 1: Flexible Urban Spaces
Millions are drawn to ci?es: by 2015, 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into
Mumbai and Karachi, 50 into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.
Developing World Mobility Shi4 1: Flexible Urban Spaces
As most of us increasingly live in smaller, more flexible, mul?func?onal spaces, making more effec?ve use of hotel rooms
and semi-‐public areas will be pivotal design trends
Flexible Spaces Shi4 1: Flexible Urban Spaces
By 2020 ‘weird weather’ is commonplace, has changed some pivotal adtudes and the macro environmental shi4s are
increasingly visible to all and ac?onable by many
Weird Weather Shi4 2: Sustainable Consump?on
Organiza?ons are focused on adapta?on to, rather than mi?ga?on of, climate change as the impacts of 4C rise are recognized globally – should we be building floa?ng hotels?
Adapta?on Shi4 2: Sustainable Consump?on
As ‘green’ is a hygiene factor, social innova?on is central for companies as philanthropic exercises are replaced by a more genuine focus on risk and sustainability in the core business
Genuine Social Ac?ons Shi4 2: Sustainable Consump?on
New regula?on, rising sustainability impera?ves, changing consumer sen?ment and increasing cost of ownership all shi4 the
balance to access as we prefer to rent than buy
Shi4 3: Access Not Ownership Lease Everything
As norms change across sectors’ supply chains, more items will be rented not bought – many brands are moving towards leasing as
an integral part of their business models
Shi4 3: Access Not Ownership Supply Chain Leasing
Wan?ng less luggage, guests may increasingly prefer to rent and not bring their own stuff – whether that be tablets and laptops or
gym kit, business shirts and even evening wear
Shi4 3: Access Not Ownership Luggage-‐less Travel
As the amount of data in the world doubles every month access is not the issue: Making be>er sense of open and owned
informa?on is a pivotal and dis?nc?ve capability
Shared Data Shi4 4: Trusted Data
Leaders expertly use (their own and others) data to get closer to consumers and, as the nature of trust and value shi4s, established brands carry less relevance and weight
Value and Relevance Shi4 4: Trusted Data
As consumers put increasing faith in those most able to match unar?culated needs and make the best connec?ons, hotel stay
recommenda?ons will shi4 to the data miners
Intelligent Connec?ons Shi4 4: Trusted Data
For many the future is one of reduced choice but not less interest as retailers especially provide an increasingly edited porlolio of
products through ever more efficient channels
Less Choice Shi4 5: Curated Experiences
Consumers increasingly seek increasingly tailored selec?ons of op?ons with the onus on providers to curate the ‘choice architecture’ and give guests apparent personalisa?on
Apparent Personaliza?on Shi4 5: Curated Experiences
Several different organiza?ons are already making strong moves into taking a share of online and offline payments through
alterna?ve currencies and plalorms
Exis?ng Ac?vi?es Shi4 6: Alterna?ve Currencies
Decreased trust in ins?tu?ons may broaden the adop?on of new usable stores of value controlled by a few key global consumer brands but used by many
Shi4 6: Alterna?ve Currencies Global Scale
Looking ahead there seems to be four main challenges and / or opportuni?es for leading hotel brand owners
Key Thoughts Four Challenges
Going forward how best should hotel companies…
1. Take advantage of trust in their brands to deepen rela3onships
2. Be proac3ve to poten3al disrup?on from outside and within
3. Challenge themselves on their individual future dis?nc?ve capability
4. BePer use new partnerships to expand reach beyond current assets
Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org [email protected]
The world’s leading open foresight program