electrification of the canadian road transportation sector: a 2050 outlook with times-canada energy...

ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA

Energy and Environment (E2G) TeamGERAD Research CenterMontreal, QC, Canada

International Energy Workshop, June 21st , 2012

Context and objectives

Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO2 emissions is more important than the world average.

Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends.

Different options are considered Measures to reduce transportation demand Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to

promote the deployment of clean vehicles

The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically: To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the

deployment of clean vehicles; To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle

penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.

The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES)

Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models

Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA)

Linear programming bottom-up energy models Integrated modeling of the entire energy system GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes Prospective analysis on a long term horizon (50-100

yrs) Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Price-elasticities for end-use demands

Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets

Main output: Optimal technology selection Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the

energy system Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)

TIMES-Canada

Base year: 2007Horizon: 2050 (energy) Horizon: 2100 (climate)

Regions: 13 provinces and territories

Time slices- 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter- 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak

Start Mid End Length

1 2007 2007 2007 12 2008 2008 2009 23 2010 2010 2011 24 2012 2012 2013 25 2014 2015 2017 46 2018 2020 2022 57 2023 2025 2027 58 2028 2030 2032 59 2033 2040 2047 15

10 2048 2050 2052 5

Power & Heat Cogeneration PlantsThermal, NuclearRenewables, Biomass

International ExportsCrude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2, LNG

Domestic Trades- Pipelines- Transmission

IND (8) - Tons Iron & Steel, Cement Chemicals, Copper

Demand for Energy Service

End-UseTechnologies

Production / ConversionTechnologies

Primary Energy

Primary Energy Final Energy Useful Energy

DM 2050Oil prices (3)Elasticities

DM 2100Growth (2)Elasticities

COM (7) - PJ/m2

Heating, CoolingLighting, Appliances

RSD (20) - PJ/unit Heating, CoolingLighting, Appliances

TRA (16) - Pkm/TkmRoad: short/long dist.Rail, Marine, Air

AGR (1) - PJ

IND ProductionFurnaces, BoilersMachinery

COM ServicesFurnaces, AC,Fluorescents, Etc.

RSD DwellingsHeat Pumps, LampsFreezers, Ranges

TRA VehiclesCars, trucks, busesTrains, Ships, Planes

-TrucksAGR Process

Refineries

Hydrogen Plants

Biomass PlantsSolid: pellet, woodLiquid: biofuelsGaseous: biogas

Coke Plants

Renewable Potentials Hydro, Wave, TidalWind, Solar, GeoOcean Thermal & Salinity

Biomass PotentialsCrops: Starch, Oilseeds Greasy residuesLignocellulosic sourcesDedicated cropsWaste, Biogas, Algae

Fossil Fuel ReservesConventional & Oil sandsCrude oil, Gas, Coal

Uranium & Lithium Reserves

ScenariosEnergy policiesClimate policies

International ImportsCrude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2

GHG EmissionsCombustion, Process

CCS

LNG Regasification

CAC Emissions

Extraction Oil, Gas, Coal

LNG Liquefaction

LNG Imports

CCS

Carbon sequestrationEOR, Aquifers, Afforestation

Driver growth projections, 2007-2050

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

0

50

100

150

200

250

NEB 2009 CentralNEB 2009 LowNEB 2009 HighCEO 2006 CentralIEO 2010 CentralIEO 2010 LowIEO 2010 HighWEO 2010 ReferenceWEO 2010 PolicyWEO 2010 Policy

$U

S 2

00

8 /

ba

rre

l

Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)

AB

BC

MB

SK

ON

QC

NB

NL

NS

PE

WEST CENT

EAST NORTH

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

RenewableOilGasElectricityCoalBiomass

PJ

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Trans-portationResidentialIndustrialCommercialAgriculture

PJ

Re-new-ableOilGasElectric-ityCoalBiomass

TRPSA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPSB (M Pkms - Short dist.)

Passenger, Small cars

TRPLA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPLB (M Pkms - Short dist)

Passenger, Large cars

TRPT (M Pkms) Passenger, Light trucks

TRFT (M Tkms) Freight, Light trucks

TRFM (M Tkms) Freight, Medium trucks

TRFH (M Tkms) Freight, Heavy trucks

TRPU (M Pkms) Passenger, Urban buses

TRPI (M Pkms) Passenger, Intercity buses

TRPC (M Pkms) Passenger, School buses

TRPM (M Pkms) Passenger, Motos

TRPO (M Pkms)

Passenger, Off road

TTPA (M Pkms) Passenger, Trains

TTFR (M Tkms) Freight, Trains

TAPA (PJ) Passenger, Airplanes

TAFR (PJ)Freight, Airplanes

TMAL (PJ)All, Ships

Ga

so

lin

e

Die

se

l

NG

Ls

Na

tura

l g

as

Ele

ctr

icit

y

Eth

an

ol

Bio

sd

ies

el

Me

tha

no

l

Bio

-dim

ety

l

Av

iati

on

ga

s

Je

t fu

els

H f

ue

l o

il

Road

Rail

Air

Marine

H2

-ga

s

H2

-liq

uid

TRPSA

TRPSB

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE Std.

Ga

so

lin

e

Die

se

l

NG

Ls

Na

tura

l g

as

Ete

ctr

icit

y

Eth

an

ol

Bio

die

se

l

Me

tha

no

l

Bio

-dim

ety

l

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 3.5 MPG.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 7.0 MPG.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 3.5 MPG.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 7.0 MPG.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas liquids, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 10%.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 18%.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Biodiesel, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Methanol, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Bio Dimethyleter, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Gasoline Hybrid, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Diesel Hybrid, Std.

Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Gas.

Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Liquid.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Gas.

Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Liquid.

H2

-ga

s

H2

-liq

uid

Fo

ssil

fue

lsB

iofu

els

Hyd

rog

en

TRPSA

TRPSB

Ga

so

lin

eD

ies

el

Ele

ctr

icit

y

Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Lead Acid

Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, NiMH

Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Li-Ion




Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH

Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion











Ele

ctric

Plu

g-i

n h

ybri

d G

aso

line

Plu

g-i

n h

ybri

d D

iese

l

TELCBAT1, Battery (Storage)

Charging station, Residential, Level 1.2



Charging station, Commercial, Level 6.5

Charging station, Commercial, Level 30

Charging station, Commercial, Level 60

Charging station, Public, Level 6.5

Charging station, Public, Level 30

Charging station, Public, Level 60

Electricity from the grid

Level and availability of charging stations

Level 1

Level 2 Level 3 – fast charger

Level 1.11.2 KW50 min/kWh

Level 1.21.6 KW40 min/kWh

Level 26.5 KW10 min/kWh

Level 3.130 KW2.5 min/kWh

Level 3.260 KW1 min/kWh

Example: small passenger cars

Small BEV – 150 (Lithium-Ion)

Capital costs2012: 36,558 $2050: 12,328 $

Battery capacity: 2012: 25 kWh2050: 13 kWh

Example: Mitsubishi i-Miev Range: 150 km

Battery: 16 kWh

Capital cost: 33,000$

Example: small passenger cars (18)

Technology

Battery (start year)

Fuel

Capital cost ($/unit) Efficiency

Start year 2050

ICE(l/

100km)

ELC (km/kW

h)

BEV – 70

Lead (2008)NiMH (2008)Li-Ion (2010)

ELC14,73017,31422,834

8,7499,8497,000

---

5.965.965.96

BEV – 150

Li-Ion (2012) ELC 36,558 12,32

8 - 5.96

BEV – 200

Li-Ion (2014) ELC 45,136 17,78

4 - 5.96

BEV – 300

Li-Ion (2016) ELC 62,290 26,39

4 - 5.96

PHEV – 20

NiMH (2008)

Li-Ion (2010)

ELC & GSLELC & DSTELC & GSLELC & DST

19,10520,355 19,73120,981

9,71310,02

29,0689,377

1.5 7.527.52

PHEV – 50

NiMH (2010)

Li-Ion (2012)

ELC & GSLELC & DSTELC & GSLELC & DST

36,60837,78838,37839,558

18,979

19,560

17,446

18,040

2 6.506.50

PHEV – 100

Li-Ion (2014)

ELC & GSLELC & DST

68,41570,518

32,524

33,603

2.2 6.22

PHEV – 200

Li-Ion (2016)

ELC & GSLELC & DST

128,489132,439

63,205

65,273

2.5 6.08

Scenarios

• BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio-economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach.

• CLIM: GHG reduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories.

• EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation

Province Reference year Target for 2020 Target for 2050Alberta 2005 5% 14%British Colombia 2007 33% 50%Manitoba 2005 15% 45%New Brunswick 1990 10% 20%Newfoundland 1990 10% 20%Nova Scotia 1990 10% 20%Ontario 1990 15% 30%Prince Edward Island 1990 10% 20%Quebec 1990 20% 40%Saskatchewan 2006 20% 40%Territories 2005 17% 50%

Year 2020 2030 2040 2050All provinces 5% 18% 31% 44%

End-use demand projections, 2007-2050

2007

2015

2040

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Trains Off-Road

Motos Urban buses

Intercity buses School buses

Light trucks Large cars - Long distance

Large cars - Short distance

Small cars - Long distance

Small cars - Short distance

M P

km

2007200820102012201520202025203020402050 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Trains

Light trucks

Medium trucks

Heavy trucks

M T

km

Final energy consumption, 2007-2050 (PJ)

2007

2008

2010

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

2040

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Hydrogen

Natural gas and NGL

Heavy Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Electricity

Diesel

Biofuels

Aviation fuels

PJ

BAU 200

7BAU

CLIM

202

0EV

PBAU

CLIM

205

0EV

P

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Hydrogen

Natural gas and NGL

Heavy Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Electricity

Diesel

Biofuels

Aviation fuels

PJ

GHG emissions, 2007-2050 (Mt CO2-eq)

2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

BAU CLIM EVP

Mt

CO

2-e

q

AB14%

BC16%

MB4%

NB7%NL

0%NS0%

NT0%

NU0%

ON38%

PE0%

QC17%

SK4%

YT0% AGR

0%COM8%

ELC25%

IND39%

RSD0%

SUP0%

TRA28%

Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050

2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

ICV + fossils fuels ICV + biofuels

HEV PHEV

BEV ICV & FCV + Hydrogen

M P

km

s

2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

ICV + fossils fuels ICV + biofuels

HEV PHEV

BEV ICV & FCV + Hydrogen

M T

km

s

Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases, 2007-2050

2007200820102012201520202025203020402050 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

BEV BAU BEV CLIM 2020 BEV EVPPHEV BAU PHEV CLIM 2020 PHEV EVP

M P

km

Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case, 2007-2050

2007

2015

2040

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Small cars - Short distance

Small cars - Long distance

Large cars - Short distance

Large cars - Long distance

Light trucks School busesIntercity buses Urban busesMotos

M P

km

Charging stations and batteries, 2050

Day/Night

Peak Day/Night

Peak Day/Night

Peak Day/Night

Peak

Spring Summer Fall Winter

-

5

10

15

20

OutputInput

Day Night Day Night Day Night Day NightSpring Summer Fall Winter

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Commercial and public Residential

PJ

Investment in new capacity, 2050 (GW)

Thermal Hydro Nuclear Biomass Renewable -

20

40

60

80

100

Installed / Planned Additional - BAU Additional - CLIM

GW

Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 20480

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

ROPT OPT PESS RPESS

$/k

Wh

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 20480

102030405060708090

100

ROPT OPT PESS RPESS

Ind

ex:

2008 =

100

Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all-electric car with a 150 km capacity

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

ROPT OPT PESS RPESS

Inve

stm

en

t co

st

(Cd

n$

)

Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2007-2050 (PJ)

RO

PT

*OP

T*

PES

S

RP

ES

S

RO

PT

*OP

T*

PES

S

RP

ES

S

RO

PT

*OP

T*

PES

S

RP

ES

S

2007 BAU scenarios 2050

CLIM scenarios 2050

EVP scenarios 2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

HydrogenNatural gas and NGLGasolineElectricityDieselBiofuels

PJ

Conclusion

Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions.

In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030).

The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy.

On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.

Thank you from the E2G team

Postdoc fellowCamille Fertel (GCPDRF)PhD studentYuri AlcocerMaster studentsErik FrenetteHichem GarboujMathilde MarcyYosra NejiNoushin Reisi

Project leaders• Jean-Philippe Waaub• Olivier Bahn• Richard Loulou

Project Coordination• Kathleen Vaillancourt

Research consultants

Amit Kanudia (KanORS-EMR)

Maryse Labriet (ENERIS)

Research project funded by the NSERC of CanadaResearch project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU)Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-QuebecGCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships

electrification of the canadian road transportation sector: a 2050 outlook with times-canada energy...

Documents

energy horizon

energy models

timescanada energy

biomass gas

final energy consumption

oil prices

biogas biomass plants

algae biomass potentials