© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

IEA Electricity Security Action Plan RD&D activities, gaps and opportunities: IEA Perspective International Energy Agency

Christelle Verstraeten – Energy Analyst

IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology Experts’ group on R&D priority setting and evaluation – 14 November 2013

© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

1. Introduction to IEA and IEA’s work on electricity 2. Natural disaster frequency and impact history 3. Resilience dimension in ESAP

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Introduction to the IEA

Formed in the wake of the 1973 oil embargo with a mission to promote member country energy security

Oil: The good old tradition of a geopolitical risk

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Why Electricity at IEA? OECD is significantly electrifying

since the 70’s

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Primary energy use growth in OECD (1970 = 100)

Electricity Other

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US GDP and power demand growth

GDP Power demand

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It catches up much more rapidly in emerging markets

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oil electricity

China’s consumption as a percentage of US consumption

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So its recent growth is just a taste of things to come

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NPS 450 ppm EU + USA in 2010

Incremental global power generation till 2035, twh

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Context: Drivers for electricity supply

INCREASING PRIMARY

ENERGY DEMAND

DECARBONIZATION OBJECTIVES

ADAPATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

VARIABLE RENEWABLES INTEGRATION

Electricity generation from renewables

sources will triple from

2010 to 2035

(New Policies Scenario–IEA WEO 2012)

Increased occurrences of natural disasters and

related impacts on energy systems

THE FASTEST GROWING ENERGY SOURCE CONSUMED

Global electricity demand projected to increase by

over 70% between

2010 and 2035

(New Policies Scenario–IEA WEO 2012)

FUEL SECURITY

EVOLVING SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT

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Natural factors FLOODING

RISKS

AIR TEMPERATURE

WATER AVAILABILITY

WIND INTENSITY/ STORMS

“A disaster is a serious

disruption of the

functioning of a

community or a society

involving widespread

human, material,

economic or

environmental losses and

impacts, which exceeds the

ability of the affected

community or society to

cope using its own

resources.”

Terminology, UNISDR

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Natural Catastrophes 2011

Natural Catastrophes Selection of significant loss events

Geophysical events (earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic,..) Meterological events (storm)

Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Source: 2012 ¨Munich Re – NatCat service

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Temperatures changes scenarios

Global warming predictions based on different emission scenarios - IPCC

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Source: Approaches to setting electric distribution

reliability standards and outcomes – The Brattle Group

January.2012 Source: 5th CEER Benchmarking Report on the Quality of

Electricity Supply - 2011

System Security: Index SAIDI average outage duration for each customer served

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POWER SECURITY CHALLENGES

Affordability Security

Low carbon

Dispatchable solutions

Nuclear

CCS

Variable solutions

Onshore

Offshore

Other

Resilience dimension in all pillars of electricity systems security

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1. FUEL SECURITY: RENEWABLES INTEGRATION – No longer a niche player

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2. INTERCONNECTIONS: As generation capacity?

Source: EWI Cologne, Optimal transmission grid scenario

Can transmission be regarded as a non-scarce resource?

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3. MARKET DESIGN

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Balancing the dimensions - Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP)

Regional Market Integration

Electricity Networks

(ENIO)

Emergency Preparedness

Generation Investments

Demand Response

ESAP

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Natural disasters and electricity networks

Prevent/anticipate vs. Recovery

LT actions (adaptation) vs. Immediate action (emergency plan)

"It is virtually impossible to protect the system from a storm like Sandy," said Clark Gellings, a fellow at the industry's Electric Power Research Institute. "Can we do a better job at putting it all back together?"

Anticipate Prevent Resist Restore

DISASTER

• Vulnerability of the power system with larger share of RES? • Power network vulnerability • How adaptation to CC is affecting generation adequacy? • Predictability scenarios

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Thank you for your attention

For more information:

http://www.iea.org/topics/electricity/