electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the city of berkeley
DESCRIPTION
How to implement EV charging infrastructure in the City of Berkeley. Market analysis, scenarios, strategy, recommendations, and financial analysis.TRANSCRIPT
Developing Electric
Value Added
December 17, 2010
Justin Bean
Katie Dunn
Rudi Halbright
Obrie Hostetter
Tim McLaughlin
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added
Developing Electric Value Added Developing Electric Value Added
Outline
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Outline Market Overview
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Outline
Scenarios &
Strategy
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Outline Recommendations
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Outline Financial Options &…
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Outline Analysis
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Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan
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• 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020
• Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2
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Who is Berkeley?
• Population 107,000
• 67% have bachelors degree+
• Berkeley FIRST
• PACE
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Technology Overview
EV Vs PHEV
Charging
Level 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours
Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours
Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes
Developing Electric Value Added
Market Overview
• 841,000 EV & PHEVs by 2015
• Favorable Federal and State Policies
• $14.4B – ARRA
• Consumer Tax Credits
$7,500 fed tax credit
$5,000 CA tax credit
$2,000 fed tax credit for charging
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Market Overview - Hybrids are a predictor of EV sales
Beating the Market (2009)
• Auto sales declined 21%
• Hybrids declined only 8%
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Market Overview - EV Demand in Berkeley
• 2.8% of vehicle registrations are hybrids
• Toyota - 500 PHEVs on waiting list
• Nissan – Sold out!
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Focus of Other Cities
Portland
Key Focus
All car commuters
Key Strategies
Easy access to charging
stations and permitting
Leverage municipal EV
fleet to set precedent
for adoption
New York
Key Focus
Early adopters only
Key Strategies
Commercial parking
garages
Not offering incentives,
only supporting demand
San Francisco
Key Focus
Long-term integrated
transportation plan
Key Strategies
Public parking in dense
areas
Alliances with car share
programs
Utilize existing assets
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Strategy Canvas
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SWOT Highlights
Strengths •Progressive Berkeley
residents
•CAP goals
•Measure R
•Small city: minimal EV
infrastructure big impact
Developing Electric Value Added
SWOT Highlights
Strengths •Progressive Berkeley
residents
•CAP goals
•Measure R
•Small city: minimal EV
infrastructure big impact
Weaknesses •Barriers to residential
charging
•Late for grants
•Funding
Developing Electric Value Added
SWOT Highlights
Strengths •Progressive Berkeley
residents
•CAP goals
•Measure R
•Small city: minimal EV
infrastructure big impact
Weaknesses •Barriers to residential
charging
•Late for grants
•Funding
Opportunities •2nd mover to learn from
other cities
•Can be leading city for
range of options
•Funding available
•Bay area network
Developing Electric Value Added
SWOT Highlights
Strengths •Progressive Berkeley
residents
•CAP goals
•Measure R
•Small city: minimal EV
infrastructure big impact
Weaknesses •Barriers to residential
charging
•Late for grants
•Funding
Threats •Other alternative fuel
vehicles might prevail
•CoB disconnected from
Bay Area corridor
•Charging technology not
completely standardized
Opportunities •2nd mover to learn from
other cities
•Can be leading city for
range of options
•Funding available
•Bay area network
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Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Recommendations
Facilitate EV usage for early adopters
• Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles
• Fast-track permitting
• Carshare and commercial parking lot charging
• Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP
Within 3 months
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• Monitor station usage for
future siting
• Install opportunity
charging stations in
shopping districts and
high-traffic areas
• Develop transportation
integration strategies
• Encourage use of the
entire transportation
system
Within 3 to 6 months
Recommendations
Developing Electric Value Added
Evaluate & Educate
Within 18 months and on-going
Move 2nd • Move 2nd: reduce risks and
costly mistakes
• Monitor other cities’
solutions
• Disseminate information
online and through
community
• Showcase innovative pilot
projects, including
educational components
for the community
Recommendations
Developing Electric Value Added
Not recommended at this time
Challenges:
• Uncertain commitment
to charging technology
• Permitting issues
• No clear solutions in other
cities
• Large, complicated
investment
• Lack of data
Residential Curbside Charging
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Short-term recommendations • Push EV parking & charging policies
• Provide information about other
charging options
• Encourage communities to install
charging stations on private property
• Encourage permittable owner-initiated
solutions
• Facilitate relationships between private
owners of charging stations and EV
owners
Residential Curbside Charging
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Our Task
Build low-risk model that is
financially and environmentally
sustainable.
Four Models A. Grid Powered
B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase
D. PV Lease
Constraints • Lack of data
• Limited budget
Financial Analysis: Charging Station Network
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Finding WACC
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WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ]
Developing Electric Value Added Developing Electric Value Added
WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ]
Finding WACC
Developing Electric Value Added Developing Electric Value Added
WACC = [ D/V * Rd ]
Finding WACC
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WACC = Rd
Finding WACC
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WACC = Rd = YTM
Finding WACC
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WACC = Rd = YTMMunicipal Bonds
•10 yr
•AA
•Callable
•Revenue
Finding WACC
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3 Steps: 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output
NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay
3. Make conclusion
The Tool
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3 4 Steps: 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output
NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay
3. Make conclusion 4. Monitor, reassess
assumptions
X
The Tool
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NPV (thousands)
IRR Capital
Investment (thousands)
Payback
Period (years)
A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2
B: ClimateSmart $486 102% $49 1.1
C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0
D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4
Our Calculations
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A Visual Comparison
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A Visual Comparison: Flipped
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Variables
• daily demand
• charging price
Sensitivity Analysis: IRR
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Our Task Build low risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable.
Recommended Scenario
A. Baseline
B. ClimateSmart
C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease*
*Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward.
Financial Analysis Summary
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In Sum
Start now
•Grant money for stations
•Appease early adopters
Emergent Strategy
•Monitor other cities
•Monitor local demand
Systems Approach
EVs are not THE answer
but a part of it