Election with a difference:Analysing the Verdict of Lok

Sabha Elections 2014

Sanjay KumarDirector

Centre for the Study of Developing Societies Delhi

This presentation is meant to highlight some of the features of Lok Sabha Elctions in India

Few months ago 16th Lok Sabha elections were held in India.

These elections not only resulted in change of government, but these elections also marked some new changes in Indian Electoral Politics.

The results indicate, this elections marked not one but several shifts in Indian Electoral Politics.

At the moment it is difficult to say if these are long terms changes or these are only episodic.

Sources of Information In order to highlight some of the changes in tend

in Indian electoral politics I would use the following data sources

Election results from the Election Commission of India

Findings of the post poll survey conducted by the CSDS of national representative sample of 20,000 (approx.) respondents

Verdict 2014: How did various political parties perform?

31.1%

7.2%19.3%3.7%

38.7%

BJP BJP+ CongCong+ Others

282

5444

15

148

SeatsVote

Change from 2009 Lok Sabha Election

12.3

-0.3

-9.3

-0.5-2.2

BJP BJP+ Cong Cong+ Others

166

29

-162

-11 -22BJP BJP+ Cong Cong+ Others

Vote change (% points) Seat change

Dissatisfaction with the UPA government at the centre continued to rise during the campaign

Role of leadership and the ‘Modi factor’

Issues like corruption and price rise contributed to increased anti incumbency

Role of the Media

Why it happened: Explaining the reasons for that ?

Public Anger and anti incumbency were building up

2009 2011 July

2013July

2014 January

Dissatisfied with the UPA Government 21% 31% 40% 50%

Dissatisfied with Manmohan Singh’s performance as PM 17% 24% 32% 43%

Dissatisfaction with UPA government and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh kept rising as the campaign progressed

All figures are in percentage

As a leader Narendra Modi was far more popular compared to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and popularity kept rising

2%5%

19%

34% 34%36%

40% 39%

23% 23%20% 19%

2009 2011 Jul-13 Jan-14 Mar Apr

Modi’s popularity helped mobilise additonal voters for BJP.One in four BJP voters would have voted differently had Modi

not been BJP’s PM candidate

27

48

Would havechanged vote had

Modi not been PMcandidate

Would have stillvoted for same

party

BJP voters (%)

16

2027

28

30

33

35

34

42

57

Maharashtra

UP

West Bengal

Assam

Odisha

Delhi

Haryana

Bihar

Rajasthan

Karnataka

BJP voters who would have changed vote had Modi not been PM

(%)

Modi’s message about Gujarat’s ‘development’ worked also contributed t BJP’s massive victory

20

4 4 3 3

Most developed state according to voters (All India %)

‘Gujarat is most developed state’

(%)Gujarat 62Rajasthan 36Maharashtra 31Jharkhand 28UP 25Odisha 23Karnataka 21

Out of 21 states, Gujarat was ranked first in 8 states (AP, Bihar, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, UP, Uttarakhand. It was ranked second in 9 states.

Price rise and a desire for development were big election issues

11%

18%19% 19%

9% 9%

15%

17%

6%7%

12% 12%

5%6%

7%8%

Jul‐13 Jan‐14 March April

Price rise Development Corruption Employment

Increasing price rise; Common voters blamed the Central government more than the state government

20112013

2014

51 81 85

Prices of essential commodities have increased (%)

Central Government

30%

State Government

11%

Both44%

Neither3%

Don’t Know/Cant Say

12%

Whom do you think is more responsible for Price Rise

Shared perception amongst voters of UPA Government being “Corrupt’ kept gaining strength

28

34

41

2011 2013 2014

UPA 'Very Corrupt' (%)

2011 2013 2014

39

6974

Corruption has increased under UPA 

(%)

More presence in the media did help the BJP in mobilsing voters in favour of the party

Voters who----- July 2013

Jan2014

March 2014

May 2014

Watch TV Regularly + 3 +10 +13 +15

Never watch TV -6 +3 +1 +3

Read Newspaper Regularly +7 +14 +15 +20

Never read the Newspaper -7 -1 +3 +4

Use Internet Regularly +13 +19 +23 +26

Never use the Internet -2 +6 +9 +10

Who deserted the Congress and switched towards the BJP in recent years

Community which matter in Indian elections most/seen as blocks

Proportion in the population

Upper Castes 10%-15 % Approximately

OBCs 42-46% Approximately

Dalits 16.2% (Census of India)

Tribals 9.7% (Census of India)

Muslims 13.4% (Census of India)

Greater consolidation of Upper Caste voters in favour of the BJP

2521

23 26

13

35

40

35

29

47

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

56

1996 1999 2004 2009 2014

CongressBJP

BJP takes a significant lead among OtherBackward Classes voters (OBCs)

2524 24 24

1519 23 23 22

34

0

8

16

24

32

40

1996 1999 2004 2009 2014

CongressBJP

Decisive shift amongst the Dalits in favour of BJP

3430

26 27

1914 14 13 12

24

1996 1999 2004 2009 2014

Vote Share Among DalitsCongress BJP

The Adivasis (ST/Tribals) also shifted towards the BJP in large numbers

4246

37 38

2821 22

2824

38

1996 1999 2004 2009 2014

Vote Share Among TribalsCongress BJP

Hardly any change in the Muslim support for the Congress

59

3640

36 38 38

27 7 4

8

41

62

5357 58

54

1971 1996 1999 2004 2009 2014

CongressBJPRegional Parties

Modi succeeded in mobilising the “Young Voters” more so the first time voters in age group 18-22 years

Age group(years)

Narendra Modi for PM (%)

18-22 4323-25 4026-35 3836+ 32

27

27

17

23

21

36

2004 2009 2014

First time voters forCongress First time voters for BJP

2014 – What makes this elections different from many other National Elections Turnout reached an all time high in 2014

First Non Congress Party to get a majority ever

First Single party majority government in 30 years all previous governments during last 30 years were coalition of various parties

High average victory margins for the BJP

Party registered highest ever vote share increase for a national party between two elections

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed highest ever turnout in Indian elections

61.2 62.7

55.4

61.3

55.3

60.556.9

6462

55.957.9

6260

58 58.2

66.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014

Increased electoral participation of women in 2014 Lok Sabha elections contributed to the increase turnout

17

15

12 12

1011

9 910

98 8 8

4.42

1.460

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 2014

Gender Gap in Lok Sabha Elections

The increased electoral participation of Youth in 2014 also contributed to the increased turnout

Year of Lok Sabha

Election

Average Turnout (In

%)

Turnout among Youth Voters (in %)

1996 58 541998 62 601999 60 572004 58 552009 58 542014 66 68

How do we read this higher turnout in 2014? Did this helped any particular political party

Turnout increasesince 2009

Number of seats

Seats won by NDA

15% points and above 70 6710-14.99% points 145 1250.1-9.99% points 267 123

No change/decline in turnout 61 21

96 86

46 34

15 ppt + 10-14.99 ppt 0.1-9.99 ppt No change/decline inturnout

Percentage of seats won

First Non Congress Party to get a majority; Single party majority after 30 years

Year Leading party Vote % Seats won1952 Congress 45.0 3641957 Congress 47.8 3711962 Congress 44.7 3611967 Congress 40.8 2831971 Congress 43.7 3521977 BLD 41.3 2951980 Congress 42.7 3531984 Congress 48.0 4151989 Janata Dal 17.8 1431991 Congress 36.6 2441996 BJP 20.3 1611998 BJP 25.6 1821999 BJP 23.8 1822004 Congress 26.5 1452009 Congress 28.6 2062014 BJP 31.1 282

More parties did not mean decline in average victory margin, on the contrary it increased

14.8

13.7

23.926.1

18.2 19.515.4

14.111.9

10 1012.2

9.7

15.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Average Victory Margin (Difference in Vote Share in %)

BJP registered convincing victories, three out of four seats won by margins of over one lakhvotes (282 seats)

0102030405060708090

100

3 lakh+ 2 - 2.99lakh

1 - 1.99lakh

50,000 -99,999

25,000 –49,999

10,000 –24,999

Lessthan

10,000

41

74

91

44

17

69

Highest ever increase in vote share between two elections The BJP gained 12.2 percent votes as compared to the 2009 election –

highest ever increase in the vote share of a national party between two elections

The Congress lost 9.3 percent votes in 2014 election – highest ever loss of vote share for any party between two elections

Negative vote swing for the Congress is higher than its earlier major defeats – 1977 and 1989.

The previous highest gain was in 1991, when the BJP had gained 8.7 percent votes

2014 marks a major shift in the vote shares of major parties which had become almost stagnant in the last decade. Major increase in vote share gap between BJP and Congress.

Summing up

Will this trend continue at the national level?

Will this trend continue in election being held in

various provinces (States)?

Can we see emergence of the Non-BJP front in

coming years?

Will Congress be willing to be part of any such

alliance?