el paso multifamily report 2q 2018 - texas a&m university...3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15 1q16 3q16...

a Berkshire Hathaway and Jefferies Financial Group company

SECOND QUARTER 2018

MARKET AT A GLANCE

OCCUPANCY AND RENT TRENDS

EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT

STURDY APARTMENT DEMAND IN EL PASO PUSHES UP OCCUPANCY TO 92.8%

Healthy leasing activity outpaced deliveries in the El Paso metro area. A surge in apartment demand was observed in the second quarter, following two quarters of negative absorption. Renters occupied 304 additional apartments from March through June of this year. The recent increase in demand supported the absorption of 434 units on an annual basis. During the same time, multifamily developers delivered 395 units, bringing three projects to a close. The largest project under construction in the second quarter was the 200-unit Las Mansiones at Cimarron apartment community in Northwest El Paso, with additional units expected to come online later this year. The project is adjacent to the developing The Canyons retail center and has a large office presence nearby, including the ADP campus and The Hospitals of Providence Transmountain Campus, the teaching facility for Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center El Paso. While newly leased units outpaced supply, annual occupancy ticked up 10 basis points to 92.8% in June, reaching the highest mid-year occupancy rate since 2012. Metrowide asking rent accelerated 1.5% annually to $771 per month at the end of the second quarter.

$675

$700

$725

$750

$775

$800

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18


Occupancy Rate Effective Rent

OCCUPANCYRATE

EFFECTIVERENT

TOTAL INVENTORY

92.8%

$771

49,220

Up 10 bps since 2Q17

Up 1.5% since 2Q17

BERKADIASECOND QUARTER 2018

DELIVERIES AND DEMAND

ECONOMIC TRENDS


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

13

225

Units YTD

Units YTD -500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*


Deliveries Demand*Year to date

UNEMPLOYMENT*2017 2018

EMPLOYMENT*2017 2018

EXISTING SFH SALES**2017 2018

MEDIAN SFH PRICE**2017 2018

10-YEAR TREASURY**2017 2018

4.8%

312.2k

9.3k

$150.1k

2.19%

4.5%

316.7k

9.1k

$156.1k

2.91%

El Paso-area employment expanded 1.4% annually through May of this year as area companies added 4,500 net workers to local payrolls. The largest rate of growth occurred in the education and health services sector, as 1,300 workers were hired, a 2.9% year-over-year increase. The sector will continue to be supported as hiring began at the Las Palmas Medical Center where construction was nearly complete on a $63 million, 90,000-square-foot expansion located across the street from the main hospital. Substantial growth was also present in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, with 900 new jobs, equating to a 1.3% annual increase. The retail trade subsector was boosted when the $100 million West Towne Marketplace opened last fall with anchor tenants Walmart Supercenter and Cabela’s. In February 2018, Topgolf opened its $15.7 million, three-story, high-tech golf driving range in the Montecillo Smart Growth Community in West El Paso, hiring 500 people. Topgolf’s recruits were part of the net 700 jobs created in the leisure and hospitality industry, up 2.0% since May 2017.

-30 BPSCHANGE

1.4%CHANGE

-2.2%CHANGE

4.0%CHANGE

70 BPSCHANGE

U.S. SHARE OF WALLET METRO SHARE OF WALLET

U.S.ANNUAL RENT

26.5%share of wallet

METROANNUAL RENT


*May; **June

BERKADIA SECOND QUARTER 2018

© 2018 Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLCBerkadia® is a registered trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLCDocument sources: Axiometrics; Berkadia Research; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Moody’s

SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN


SUBMARKET NAME 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q18 ANNUAL 2Q18 ANNUAL

El Paso, TX 92.7% 92.8% -1.1% 1.5% $760 $771 304 434 0 395

TOTALS 92.7% 92.8% -1.1% 1.5% $760 $771 304 434 0 395

OCCUPANCY AVG RENTINCREASE

AVG RENT NETABSORPTION

DELIVEREDUNITS

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS521 Fifth Avenue

20th FloorNew York, NY 10175

(646) 600-7800 | Fax: (646) 600-7838www.Berkadia.com

© 2018 Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLC Berkadia® is a trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLC.Axiometrics® is a trademark of Axiometrics Inc.Commercial mortgage loan origination and servicing businesses are conducted exclusively by Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC and Berkadia Commercial Mortgage Inc. This website is not intended to solicit commercial mortgage loan brokerage business in Nevada. Investment sales and real estate brokerage businesses are conducted exclusively by Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLC and Berkadia Real Estate Advisors Inc. For state licensing details for the above entities, visit: www.berkadia.com/legal/licensing.aspx

a Berkshire Hathaway and Jefferies Financial Group company

MARKET AT A GLANCE


a Berkshire Hathaway and Leucadia National company

EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2018

MANY RESIDENTS CHOOSING TO RENT OVER HOMEOWNERSHIP

Apartment rental demand sharply increased in El Paso in the last year. Contributing to the rise in leasing activity was sustained hiring and household formation exceeding population growth. In the last year, population growth was 1.0% while household formation was 1.4%. Existing single-family home sales decreased nearly 50% year over year while leasing activity almost quadrupled, indicating many residents chose renting over homeownership. A total of 1,283 net units were absorbed since the first quarter of 2017, up from 337 units absorbed in the preceding year. With elevated rental demand and only 455 units among four properties that came online since March 2017, occupancy rose from 91.4% to 93.0% in March 2018. While no new projects were under construction at the end of the first quarter, permits were submitted for four apartment communities, which could add 1,241 units if all projects come to fruition in the upcoming years. With rising occupancy in the last year, apartment operators capitalized by raising effective rent. After lowering effective rent 2.1% from March 2016 to March 2017, average effective rent increased 3.1% annually since March 2017 to $766 per month.

$700

$725

$750

$775

$800

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17


Occupancy Rate Effective rent

OCCUPANCYRATE

EFFECTIVERENT

TOTAL INVENTORY

93.0%

$766

49,270


Up 3.1% since 1Q17


ECONOMIC TRENDS

BERKADIA


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

112

388

Units YTD

Units YTD -500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*








4.9%

311.4k

9.0k

$151.2k

2.40%

4.3%

314.4k

4.7k

$154.4k

2.74%

Underpinning vigorous rental demand in El Paso was rising overall employment and a sturdy pipeline of commercial development under construction. Employers added 3,000 workers to local payrolls, a 1.0% expansion in the 12 months ending January 2018. The education and health services sector accounted for the most growth, 1,300 new jobs, representing a 2.9% year-over-year increase. The sector was boosted by more than 370 jobs when The Hospitals of Providence Transmountain campus and Providence’s Horizon City microhospital opened last year. The construction industry was further supported by four major downtown hotel projects: Aloft at Bassett Tower, Paso Del Norte Hotel restoration, the nearly complete urban Courtyard by Marriott, and Plaza Hotel’s renovation. Construction will soon begin on the 14-story, $70 million WestStar Tower, downtown’s first office high-rise in 40 years. In addition, Fort Bliss’ new $650 million medical facility has brought an estimated 1,200 skilled laborers to the 1 million-square-foot project, slated to complete in 2019.

-60 BPSCHANGE

1.0%CHANGE

-47.8%CHANGE

2.1%CHANGE

30 BPSCHANGE


U.S.ANNUAL RENT


METROANNUAL RENT


FIRST QUARTER 2018

*January; **March

SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

BERKADIA


FIRST QUARTER 2018

© 2018 Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLCBerkadia® is a registered trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLCDocument sources: Axiometrics; Berkadia Research; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Moody’s


El Paso, TX 91.4% 93.0% -2.1% 3.1% $743 $766 388 1,283 112 455

TOTALS 91.4% 93.0% -2.1% 3.1% $743 $766 388 1,283 112 455



DELIVEREDUNITS




ALBUQUERQUE, NM

AMBLER, PA

ATLANTA, GA

AUSTIN, TX

BATON ROUGE, LA

BIRMINGHAM, AL

BOCA RATON, FL

BOSTON, MA

CAMAS, WA

CHARLESTON, SC

CHATTANOOGA, TN

CHICAGO, IL

CLEVELAND, OH

COLORADO SPRINGS, CO

DALLAS, TX

DC METRO

DENVER, CO

DETROIT, MI

EL SEGUNDO, CA

FRESNO, CA

HOUSTON, TX

IRVINE, CA

JACKSONVILLE, FL

KANSAS CITY, MO

LAS VEGAS, NV

LEXINGTON, KY

LOS ANGELES, CA

MARBLEHEAD, MA

MEMPHIS, TN

MIAMI, FL

MIDVALE, UT

MURRIETA, CA

NASHVILLE, TN

NEW YORK, NY

NEWPORT NEWS, VA

ORLANDO, FL

PASADENA, CA

PHILADELPHIA, PA

PHOENIX, AZ

PORTLAND, OR

RALEIGH, NC

RICHMOND, VA

SALT LAKE CITY, UT

SAN ANTONIO, TX

SAN DIEGO, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

SEATTLE, WA

SHREWSBURY, NJ

ST. LOUIS, MO

TAMPA, FL

TEMPE, AZ

TUCSON, AZ

WOODLAND HILLS, CA

HYDERABAD - INDIA*

*Back Office Support



MARKET AT A GLANCE



EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2017

APARTMENT OCCUPANCY RISES 60 BPS AMID HEALTHY LEASING ACTIVITY

During the last four quarters, apartment demand exceeded completions by more than two to one, fueling a 60-basis-point increase in occupancy. Operators recorded metrowide occupancy of 92.2% by the end of the third quarter. Despite negative apartment demand in the third quarter, leasing activity remained net positive in the trailing 12 months with 1,240 newly occupied apartments, up 42% from one year prior. Multifamily completions totaled 451 units annually, with most of the new inventory concentrated in northeast El Paso. For the remainder of the year, another 232 apartments are scheduled to be delivered as the Bella Estancias phase II project is completed and all 214 units at North Loop Apartments come online in El Paso’s Lower Valley near the Loop 375 freeway. Average rent remained consistent over the past three years; the quarterly average since third quarter 2014 was $774. Third quarter 2017 was no different; average rent was $774 per month, the same as one year prior. Meanwhile, effective rent reached $762 per month in the third quarter, as concessions remained stable to the year-ago rate of 1.6% of asking rent.

$700

$725

$750

$775

$800

$825

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17


Occupancy Rate Asking Rent Effective Rent

OCCUPANCYRATE

ASKINGRENT

CONCESSIONS

92.2%

$774

1.6%


Unchanged since 3Q16

Unchanged since 3Q16


ECONOMIC TRENDS

BERKADIA


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

350

983

Units YTD

Units YTD 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*








5.1%

310.9k

7.4k

$148.9k

1.63%

4.3%

318.4k

8.1k

$150.1k

2.20%

El Paso-area employment expanded 2.4% in the trailing 12 months ending August 2017 and outpaced national job growth of 1.4%. Area companies added 7,500 workers to local payrolls. The professional and business services sector accounted for the most growth, 2,100 new jobs, representing a 6.2% year-over-year increase. The financial activities industry had the greatest rate of growth, 7.9%, as 1,000 positions were filled. In the education and health services segment, 1,300 workers were hired, representing a gain of 2.9%. The sector was boosted by more than 300 jobs when the 106-bed The Hospitals of Providence Transmountain Campus in El Paso opened in January. The leisure and hospitality industry rounded out the high-growth sectors as 1,100 jobs were created, an expansion of 3.2%. The construction industry was supported by the $670 million William Beaumont Army Medical Center bringing an estimated 1,200 skilled laborers to the project. The 1.1-million-square-foot William Beaumont Army Medical Center is slated to complete in 2019.

-80 BPSCHANGE

2.4%CHANGE

9.5%CHANGE

0.8%CHANGE

60 BPSCHANGE


U.S.ANNUAL RENT


METROANNUAL RENT


THIRD QUARTER 2017

*August; **September

SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

BERKADIA



El Paso, TX 91.6% 92.2% -0.9% 0.0% $774 $774 -167 1,240 143 451

TOTALS 91.6% 92.2% -0.9% 0.0% $774 $774 -167 1,240 143 451



DELIVEREDUNITS

THIRD QUARTER 2017




ALBUQUERQUE, NM

AMBLER, PA

ATLANTA, GA

AUSTIN, TX

BAKERSFIELD, CA

BATON ROUGE, LA

BETHESDA, MD

BIRMINGHAM, AL

BOCA RATON, FL

BOSTON, MA

CAMAS, WA

CHARLESTON, SC

CHATTANOOGA, TN

CHICAGO, IL

CLEARWATER, FL

CLEVELAND, OH


DALLAS, TX

DENVER, CO

DETROIT, MI

EL SEGUNDO, CA

FRESNO, CA

HOUSTON, TX

IRVINE, CA

JACKSONVILLE, FL

KANSAS CITY, MO

LAS VEGAS, NV

LENOX, MA

LOS ANGELES, CA

MARBLEHEAD, MA

MIAMI, FL

MIDVALE, UT

MURRIETA, CA

NASHVILLE, TN

NEW YORK, NY

NEWPORT NEWS, VA

ORLANDO, FL

PASADENA, CA

PHILADELPHIA, PA

PHOENIX, AZ

PORTLAND, OR

RALEIGH, NC

RICHMOND, VA

SACRAMENTO, CA

SALT LAKE CITY, UT

SAN ANTONIO, TX

SAN DIEGO, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

SCOTTSDALE, AZ

SEATTLE, WA

SHREWSBURY, NJ

ST. LOUIS, MO

TACOMA, WA

TAMPA, FL

TEMECULA, CA

TEMPE, AZ

TUCSON, AZ

WOODLAND HILLS, CA

HYDERABAD - INDIA*




MARKET AT A GLANCE



EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT SECOND QUARTER 2017

ROBUST RENTAL DEMAND IN FIRST HALF OF 2017 AMID HEALTHY JOB CREATION

Healthy rental activity outpaced deliveries in the El Paso metro area. A surge in apartment demand was observed in the first half of the year, following two quarters of negative absorption. Renters occupied 1,158 additional apartments from January through June of this year. The recent increase in demand supported the absorption of 568 units on an annualized basis. During the same time, multifamily developers delivered 423 units, as five apartment communities completed construction. The largest project to finish construction in the second quarter was the 150-unit Bella Estancias Phase II in northeast El Paso near Fort Bliss. For the remainder of the year, the North Loop development was scheduled to bring all 214 apartments online near the popular Feather Lake wildlife sanctuary in El Paso’s Lower Valley. While newly leased units outpaced supply, occupancy ticked up 40 basis points to 92.8% in June, reaching the highest quarterly occupancy rate in the prior two-year period. Metrowide asking rent dipped 0.1% annually to $769 per month at the end of the second quarter.

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17



OCCUPANCYRATE

ASKINGRENT

CONCESSIONS

92.8%

$769

1.6%


Down 0.1% since 2Q16



ECONOMIC TRENDS

BERKADIA


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

301

1,158

Units YTD

Units YTD -300

0

300

600

900

1,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*








5.0%

308.4k

5.9k

$149.9k

1.64%

5.4%

316.8k

2.9k

$152.8k

2.19%

El Paso-area employment expanded 2.7% annually through May of this year and outpaced national job growth of 1.6%. Area companies added 8,400 workers to local payrolls. The largest rate of growth occurred in the professional and business services sector, as 2,600 workers were hired, a 7.8% year-over-year surge. Substantial expansion was also present in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, with 1,700 new jobs. This sector was boosted by hundreds of new hires at The Fountains at Farah, as the shopping center continued to add national restaurants and build out the Promenade area, where J.Crew Mercantile recently opened. Construction is underway in northwest El Paso on West Towne Marketplace with Walmart and Cabela’s as future tenants and scheduled to open this fall. Tenet Healthcare’s new hospital campus created 300 jobs, contributing to the 1,400 workers added to the education and health services employment segment. Businesses in the leisure and hospitality industry rounded out the high-growth sectors as 1,600 jobs were created, an expansion of 4.7%.

40 BPSCHANGE

2.7%CHANGE

-50.8%CHANGE

1.9%CHANGE

60 BPSCHANGE


U.S.ANNUAL RENT


METROANNUAL RENT


SECOND QUARTER 2017

*May; **June

© 2017 Berkadia Real Estate Advisors LLCBerkadia® is a registered trademark of Berkadia Proprietary Holding LLCDocument sources: Axiometrics; Moody’s; Berkadia Research

SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

BERKADIA



El Paso, TX 92.4% 92.8% -0.4% -0.1% $770 $769 761 568 203 423

TOTALS 92.4% 92.8% -0.4% -0.1% $770 $769 761 568 203 423



DELIVEREDUNITS

SECOND QUARTER 2017

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS 521 Fifth Avenue

20th Floor New York, NY 10175

(646) 600-7800 | Fax : (646) 600-7838www.Berkadia.com


ALBUQUERQUE, NM

AMBLER, PA

ATLANTA, GA

AUSTIN, TX

BAKERSFIELD, CA

BATON ROUGE, LA

BIRMINGHAM, AL

BOCA RATON, FL

BOSTON, MA

CAMAS, WA

CAPISTRANO BEACH, CA

CHARLESTON, SC

CHATTANOOGA, TN

CHICAGO, IL

CLEARWATER, FL


DALLAS, TX

DC METRO

DENVER, CO

DETROIT, MI

EL SEGUNDO, CA

FRESNO, CA

HOUSTON, TX

IRVINE, CA

JACKSONVILLE, FL

KANSAS CITY, MO

LAS VEGAS, NV

LEAWOOD, KS

LOS ANGELES, CA

MANCHESTER, MA

MARBLEHEAD, MA

MEMPHIS, TN

MIAMI, FL

MIDVALE, UT

NASHVILLE, TN

NEW YORK, NY

NEWPORT BEACH, CA

NEWPORT NEWS, VA

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK

ONTARIO, CA

ORLANDO, FL

PASADENA, CA

PHILADELPHIA, PA

PHOENIX, AZ

PORTLAND, OR

RALEIGH, NC

RICHMOND, VA

SACRAMENTO, CA

SALT LAKE CITY, UT

SAN ANTONIO, TX

SAN DIEGO, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

SCOTTSDALE, AZ

SEATTLE, WA

SHREWSBURY, NJ

ST. LOUIS, MO

TACOMA, WA

TAMPA, FL

TEMECULA, CA

TEMPE, AZ

THE PLAINS, CA

TROY, MI

TUCSON, AZ

TULSA, OK

WAUKESHA, WA

WOODLAND HILLS, CA

HYDERABAD - INDIA*


MARKET AT A GLANCE



EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2017

OCCUPANCYRATE

ASKINGRENT

CONCESSIONS

91.2%

$761

2.4%

ASKING RENT RISES ANNUALLY AS EMPLOYMENT EXPANDS 2.6%

Renters absorbed 137 apartments in El Paso since the first quarter of 2016. During the same period, multifamily developers delivered 417 apartments as four apartment communities were completed, the newest of which was the 128-unit Desert Sky Townhomes. Construction was underway at North Loop apartments with 72 of the 214 units anticipated to come online in the third quarter of this year. While new supply outpaced absorption by three-fold in the metro, the occupancy rate dipped 50 basis points to 91.2% in March of 2017. From the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, average asking rent decelerated 1.2%. During the most recent four quarters, however, the rate of rent growth increased 0.3%. By March of this year, average asking rent in El Paso was $761 per month. Average renter concessions rose 130 basis points to 2.4% of asking rent, resulting in nine days of free rent annually, compared to four days of free rent one year ago. Effective rent ended the first quarter at $743 per month.

$700

$750

$800

$850

90%

92%

94%

96%

2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16



Down 50 bps since 1Q16

Up 0.3% since 1Q16



ECONOMIC TRENDS

BERKADIA


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

Units YTD

Units YTD






FIRST QUARTER 2017

*January; **March

54

269-200

0

200

400

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*



5.1% 0 BPSCHANGE

5.1%

305.9k 2.6%CHANGE

313.8k

7.0k -40.0%CHANGE

4.2k

$144.1k 7.6%CHANGE

$155.1k

1.89% 60 BPSCHANGE

2.48%

El Paso payrolls expanded 2.6% annually through January of this year as employers created 7,900 jobs. The largest rate of growth occurred in the financial activities sector as 1,100 workers were hired, an 8.8% surge. Substantial expansion was also present in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, with 1,600 new jobs, equating to 2.4% annual growth. Government agencies, including Fort Bliss, augmented payrolls 2.3% with 1,600 newly created positions. In January 2017, Tenet Healthcare opened its $120 million, 300,000-square-foot hospital campus creating 300 new jobs, contributing to the 1,200 workers added to the education and health services employment segment. Construction is underway on Aldea, a 200-acre development to encompass retail, entertainment, hotel, and office space to be built in west El Paso. Up to $500 million will be invested in the urban-village style development. Additionally, a 2.8 million-square-foot regional entertainment district has been proposed near the Ysleta Port of Entry in east El Paso.

U.S. SHARE OF WALLET

U.S.ANNUAL RENT


METRO SHARE OF WALLET

METROANNUAL RENT



SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

BERKADIA


FIRST QUARTER 2017


El Paso, TX 91.7% 91.2% -1.2% 0.3% $759 $761 269 137 54 417

TOTALS 91.7% 91.2% -1.2% 0.3% $759 $761 269 137 54 417



DELIVEREDUNITS

CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS 521 Fifth Avenue

20th Floor New York, NY 10175

(646) 600-7800 | Fax : (646) 600-7838www.Berkadia.com


ALBUQUERQUE, NM

AMBLER, PA

ATLANTA, GA

AUSTIN, TX

BAKERSFIELD, CA

BATON ROUGE, LA

BIRMINGHAM, AL

BOCA RATON, FL

BOSTON, MA

CAMAS, WA

CHARLESTON, SC

CHATTANOOGA, TN

CHEVY CHASE, MD

CHICAGO, IL

CLEARWATER, FL

CLEVELAND, OH


DALLAS, TX

DENVER, CO

DETROIT, MI

EL SEGUNDO, CA

FRESNO, CA

HOUSTON, TX

IRVINE, CA

JACKSONVILLE, FL

KANSAS CITY, MO

LAS VEGAS, NV

LENOX, MA

LOS ANGELES, CA

MARBLEHEAD, MA

MIAMI, FL

MIDVALE, UT

MURRIETA, CA

NASHVILLE, TN

NEW YORK, NY

NEWPORT NEWS, VA

ORLANDO, FL

PASADENA, CA

PHILADELPHIA, PA

PHOENIX, AZ

PORTLAND, OR

RALEIGH, NC

RICHMOND, VA

SACRAMENTO, CA

SALT LAKE CITY, UT

SAN ANTONIO, TX

SAN DIEGO, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

SCOTTSDALE, AZ

SEATTLE, WA

SHREWSBURY, NJ

ST. LOUIS, MO

TACOMA, WA

TAMPA, FL

TEMECULA, CA

TEMPE, AZ

TUCSON, AZ

WOODLAND HILLS, CA

HYDERABAD - INDIA*


MARKET AT A GLANCE



EL PASOMULTIFAMILY REPORT THIRD QUARTER 2016

JOB GROWTH SUPPORTS POSITIVE ABSORPTION DESPITE SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURE

From January to September, renters occupied 102 units on a net basis, which was well above the average annual absorption of 64 units from 2010 to 2015. Multifamily inventory expanded by 349 units year to date as two apartment communities completed construction in the third quarter. The 263-unit, mid-rise community of Santi Dwellings at Montecillo, located approximately two miles north of the University of Texas at El Paso, is in full lease up after the remaining 20 units came online. Builders delivered the final 37 apartments at the 262-unit Avalon West apartment community. Near downtown, construction is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter at The Campbell Apartments, an 87-unit, five-story apartment community which includes approximately 3,650 square feet of ground-floor retail space. Since the beginning of the year, construction outpaced newly-occupied units by more than three-fold. It is anticipated that rental demand will rebound concurrent with sustained employment growth and absorption of recent deliveries. Average rent has remained fairly consistent over the past three years, hovering in the $805 range. Third quarter was no different, average rent checked in at $811 per month, essentially unchanged from one year prior.

$750

$775

$800

$825

$850

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16



OCCUPANCYRATE

ASKINGRENT

CONCESSIONS

91.5%

$811

1.5%

Down 110 bps since 3Q15

Down 0.1% since 3Q15



ECONOMIC TRENDS

BERKADIA


DELIVERIES

NETABSORPTION

349

102

Units YTD

Units YTD -2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*








5.0%

303.7k

7.2k

$141.4k

2.17%

5.0%

310.4k

7.3k

$142.8k

1.63%

Recently, Fort Bliss underwent one of the most significant economic developments in El Paso history. A total of $5 billion was invested into modernizing the base. The project supported the addition of 11,500 new troops to the area, resulting in one in nine El Paso County residents having a direct link to Fort Bliss. Since August 2015 metro-area employment expanded 2.2% with the addition of 6,700 workers. Employers in the leisure and hospitality sector led job growth by hiring 2,100 workers, a 6.3% expansion. Destination El Paso, estimates El Paso hosts 2.96 million visitors annually with an economic impact of $1.6 billion in direct spending, up 6.9% in the past five years. Two new downtown hotels recently hired staff to support the upswing in El Paso’s visitor and convention traffic. The upscale, $12 million, 119-room Hotel Indigo El Paso Downtown and the $10 million, 100-room Starwood Aloft Hotel both opened in the last 12 months. The largest employment sector, trade, transportation, and utilities, expanded 2.7% as 1,800 workers were recruited.

0 BPSCHANGE

2.2%CHANGE

1.4%CHANGE

1.0%CHANGE

-50 BPSCHANGE

U.S.ANNUAL RENT


METROANNUAL RENT


THIRD QUARTER 2016

*August; **September


SUBMARKET BREAKDOWN

BERKADIA



El Paso, TX 92.6% 91.5% 1.0% -0.1% $812 $811 -341 27 58 550

TOTALS 92.6% 91.5% 1.0% -0.1% $812 $811 -341 27 58 550



DELIVEREDUNITS

THIRD QUARTER 2016

EL PASOSECOND QUARTER 2016

VACANCY & RENT PERMITS & DELIVERIES EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

VACANCY & RENT COMPARISON

El Paso-area employment expanded 2.6% in the last four quarters and outpaced national job growth of 1.7%. Area companies added7,900 workers to local payrolls. The trade, transportation and utilities sector accounted for the most growth, 1,700 new jobs, equatingto a 2.7% year-over-year increase. This sector was boosted by hundreds of new hires at the North Hills Crossing shopping center thatopened in mid-2015 in north central El Paso. By the end of 2017, hundreds of additional retail workers will be hired among the WestTowne Marketplace in northwest El Paso and the Eastlake Marketplace in Horizon City. Meanwhile, hundreds of construction jobs areexpected to be generated as those retail destinations are developed. The construction industry was supported by the $5 billion expansionunder way at Fort Bliss. The leisure and hospitality industry had the greatest rate of growth, 4.9%, as 1,600 positions were filled. In theeducation and health services segment, 1,600 workers were hired, representing a gain of 3.8%. Professional and business servicesrounded out the high-growth sectors as 1,500 jobs were created, an expansion of 4.7%.

Sales of single-family homes increased 1.1% in the last 12 months with 4,500 annualized transactions. During that time, the medianhome price dipped 0.1% to $143,200. Developers continued adding to the planning pipeline, requesting 2,420 annualized permits,down 4.3% from one year prior.

Renters occupied 60 additional apartments in the metro area in the first half of this year. From 2000 to 2015, net absorption fromJanuary to June averaged 90 apartments.

Multifamily completions totaled 60 units in the first half of 2016, all in northwest El Paso. For the remainder of the year, another 100apartments are scheduled to be delivered as the Santi Dwellings at Montecillo development is completed and all 87 units at TheCampbell Apartments come online just outside downtown El Paso.

Confident in sustained economic growth and the resulting apartment demand in the near term, developers began ramping up multifamilydevelopment in the area. Permits were issued for 1,290 annualized apartments, a three-fold increase over one year prior. Already,planning activity was set to outpace 2015's total issuance of 1,800 permits.

Operators recorded marketwide vacancy of 7.3% one year ago. Negative apartment absorption at the end of 2015 and the beginningof 2016 resulted in vacancy peaking at 8.2% at the end of the first quarter of this year. Subsequent absorption in the second quarter waspositive, fueling a decrease in vacancy. In the second quarter of this year, the vacancy rate was 7.6%, 30 basis points higher than oneyear prior, though 60 points below the recent peak.

Rising vacancy in the last 12 months hindered rent growth. Asking rent averaged $804 per month in the second quarter of 2016, thesame as one year ago. During the same time, however, effective rent advanced 0.4% to $793 per month.

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EL PASOFIRST QUARTER 2016



El Paso-area employment advanced a healthy 3.3% since March of 2015 with the addition of 10,000 workers to payrolls. Vigoroushiring in the leisure and hospitality industry resulted in 2,600 new jobs, a 7.6% year-over-year surge. Staffing additions were nearly asgreat in the education and health services segment, where 2,400 jobs were filled, a gain of 5.3%. Substantial growth was also present inthe trade, transportation and utilities sector with 2,000 new hires, representing a 2.9% expansion. The sector was boosted by hundredsof jobs created at the opening of the North Hills Crossing retail center in mid-2015. Companies in the white-collar industries created2,000 jobs among the professional and business services, financial activities and information segments. Meanwhile, public-sectoremployment advanced 1.7% as 1,200 government workers were hired. The manufacturing industry was the sole employment sector withlosses, as 400 positions were eliminated, resulting in contraction of 2%. Despite the losses in the segment, Schneider Electric, anelectronics manufacturing firm, hired more than 190 workers in 2015.

Metrowide unemployment was 4.7% in March, 60 basis points lower than one year prior. The local jobless rate decreased each monthin the first quarter of this year.

Single-family home prices dipped 0.7% annually to $140,700 at the end of the first quarter, compared to a 1.6% increase in the priorfour-quarter period. Home buyers took advantage of favorable pricing as sales rose 20.2% year over year to 5,600 annualizedtransactions in March.

Operators recorded negative absorption of 40 apartments in the first quarter. One year ago, absorption totaled 190 units. In three of thelast five years, first-quarter absorption was negative, but rebounded to positive activity in the following quarter.

Builders completed 40 multifamily units in the metro area so far this year, all at the 263-unit Santi Dwellings at Montecillo apartmentcommunity, located approximately two miles north of the University of Texas at El Paso. Another 110 units are projected to be deliveredmetrowide by year-end with the completion of the Santi Dwellings at Montecillo and the 87-unit Campbell Apartments, one block east ofdowntown El Paso. An apartment community in north central El Paso is in the planning stage and could result in 370 units added toinventory if completed.

Multifamily developers demonstrated optimism in the local economy as planning activity surged in March. Permit requests weresubmitted for 1,390 annualized units compared to 210 annualized units issued one year prior. Issuance of permits in the last five yearsaveraged 1,230 multifamily units.

In the last four quarters, builders completed 270 apartments as negative absorption of 190 units was recorded. Consequently,metrowide vacancy rose from 7.2% to 8.3% during that time. Vacancy has increased each quarter since March of 2015.

Asking rents dipped 0.6% year over year to $803 per month in March. Renter inducements increased as vacancy rose. Concessionsreached 1.7% of asking rents by the end of the first quarter, up from 1.4% of asking rents one year prior.






EL PASOTHIRD QUARTER 2015



Metro-area employment expanded 1.5% since September of 2014 with the addition of 4,500 workers to payrolls. This increasesurpassed a 0.7% annual gain in the prior 12-month period. More than one-third of job growth in the last four quarters was attributed tothe education and health services sector, with 1,600 new hires, an increase of 3.7%. The largest employment sector, trade,transportation and utilities, expanded 2.2% as 1,500 workers were recruited. The leisure and hospitality industry was another economicdriver, growing 4% with 1,400 newly created jobs. Hiring in the white-collar trades was uneven, as 600 positions were filled in theprofessional and business services segment, while a total of 300 workers were laid off among the financial activities and informationsectors. Additional contraction occurred in the government and manufacturing sectors with a total of 400 jobs eliminated.

Metrowide unemployment was 4.8% at the end of the third quarter, down 150 basis points from one year earlier.

The median home price in the third quarter of this year was the highest on record. Existing median home values reached $144,600, 4%annual appreciation, offsetting the 1.5% price decline during the prior year. The trend in sales velocity was similar. After falling 2.8%from September of 2013 to September of 2014, sales activity rose 11.1% in the most recent four quarters to 5,400 annualizedtransactions. Meanwhile, planning activity decreased 13.9% year over year as developers filed permits for 2,310 annualized homes inSeptember.

Leasing activity totaled 430 apartments in the third quarter, following negative absorption of 15 units in the second quarter. So far thisyear, renters occupied 600 apartments, twice the average annual absorption from 2010 to 2014.

Multifamily inventory will expand as two apartment communities are completed this year and construction on one developmentcommences. Construction continued at the Santi Dwellings at Montecillo apartment community, located approximately two miles northof the University of Texas at El Paso. Builders completed approximately 50 units at the development in the third quarter. The 263-unitmid-rise community is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year as the final 50 units come online. In the east side of themetro, builders delivered 90 units at the 120-unit The Quest at Edgemere apartment community, which will be completed by year-end.Near downtown, construction will begin in the fourth quarter at The Campbell Apartments, an 87-unit mid-rise development.

Anticipating sustained apartment demand, multifamily developers ramped up planning activity. Permits were filed for 890 annualizedapartments in September, significantly outpacing issuance of 60 permits one year earlier.

During the last 12 months, apartment demand exceeded completions by 72.8%, fueling a 60-basis-point decrease in vacancy.Operators recorded metrowide vacancy of 6.9% by the end of the third quarter. The vacancy rate was the lowest since the third quarterof 2013.

Asking rents reached $815 per month in September. Market rents advanced 2.6% annually compared to cuts in the two prior 12-monthperiods. Effective rents also increased 2.6% since the third quarter of 2014 as operators kept concessions at an average of 1.3% ofasking rents.






EL PASOSECOND QUARTER 2015



Employers in the El Paso metro area hired 300 workers in the 12 months ending in June of this year, a 0.1% annual increase. The mostsubstantial growth was in the leisure and hospitality industry as 1,100 jobs were created, a 3.4% gain. In the education and healthservices segment, 1,000 workers were hired, equating to 2.4% growth. Meanwhile, 500 jobs were added for 0.7% expansion in thetrade, transportation and utilities sector. Layoffs were most significant in the government sector, which lost 1,700 jobs and the financialactivities industry, where 600 positions were eliminated.

The local jobless rate was 20 basis points below the national average and 450 basis points below the postrecession peak of 9.6% inApril of 2011. Metrowide unemployment fell 70 basis points from June 2014 to the end of the year. In the next six months, the ratedescended another 70 basis points to 5.1% in June.

Single-family home sales velocity rose 5.1% year over year with 5,500 annualized transactions in June. In comparison, the number oftransactions fell 4.4% in the prior 12-month period. Single-family planning activity averaged 2,860 permits from 2010 to 2014. In June,issuance totaled 2,370 annualized permits, a 4.9% annual decrease.

In the last five years, absorption averaged 320 apartments. So far this year, renters occupied 100 additional apartments. During thesame period in 2014, there was negative net absorption of 170 units.

In the first half of this year, builders completed approximately 150 units among the Santi Dwellings at Montecillo apartment communityin northwest El Paso and The Quest at Edgemere development in northeast El Paso. Completions in the first six months of this year weredown 47.6% compared to the first half of 2014. Over the next six months, 180 additional apartments are expected to be deliveredmetrowide.

Permits were issued for an average of 1,180 apartments in the last five years. Developers curtailed multifamily planning activity in the firsthalf of 2015, resulting in a 24% year-over-year reduction in permits. By June, year-to-date issuance totaled 440 permits, whileapproximately 370 identified units were in the planning pipeline.

Metrowide vacancy rose 40 basis points since the end of the first quarter. Despite the recent increase, the rate was down 20 basis pointsfrom mid-2014, to 7.7% in June of this year. The annual decline in vacancy was fueled by leasing activity that outpaced completions by22%.

Market rent decreased 0.3% from mid-2013 to mid-2014. During the most recent four quarters, however, asking rents appreciated1.3% to $796 per month. Meanwhile, effective rents advanced at a slower rate, a 1% increase to $781 per month, as concessionsedged up from 1.7% to 1.9% of asking rents.


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EL PASOFIRST QUARTER 2015



Employment expanded 2.5% since March of 2014 with the addition of 7,400 workers to local payrolls. The majority of this growthoccurred in the first quarter of this year as payrolls expanded 2.3% since December. Brisk gains were recorded in the trade, transportationand utilities sector as 2,100 jobs were created through March of this year, a 3.1% annual increase. In the leisure and hospitalityindustry, 1,900 workers were hired, a gain of 5.6%. White-collar hiring totaled more than 2,400 new jobs among the education andhealth services, professional and business services and information sectors. Contraction was limited to the financial activities industrywhere 300 jobs were eliminated.

Job growth in the last 12 months fueled a steep drop in unemployment in the El Paso metro area. The jobless rate plummeted from 7.6%in March of 2014 to 5.8% in March of this year.

The median home price reached $142,100 at the end of the first quarter, a 1.9% year-over-year gain. Following a 1% decrease in salesactivity from March of 2013 to March of 2014, sales velocity advanced 6.4% to 6,100 annualized transactions by the first quarter of thisyear, 11.5% greater than average annual velocity from 2010 to 2014. In the last 12 months, the single-family planning pipelinecontracted 1.1% to 2,200 annualized permits.

During the last 12 months, renters occupied 450 additional apartments in the metro area, a decrease of 58% from the prior 12-monthperiod. Despite the reduction in leasing activity, year-to-date absorption is on pace to exceed average apartment demand of 330 unitsfrom 2010 to 2014.

First-quarter apartment completions decreased 65.1% year over year as 78 units were delivered at the Santi Dwellings at Monticelloapartment community. Nearly 200 additional apartments are expected to be completed metrowide by year-end. Approximately 60% ofthese additions to inventory will be in northeast El Paso, while the remainder will come online in northwest El Paso.

Permits were requested for 270 apartments in the first quarter of this year. During the same period last year, issuance totaled sixapartments. From 2010 to 2014, developers requested an average of 1,190 permits.

In the last 12 months, apartment demand exceeded completions by 60.6%, fueling a decrease in vacancy. By the end of the first quarter,metrowide vacancy was 7.6%, 30 basis points lower than the same period last year. In the prior 12-month period, the vacancy rate fell160 basis points.

Year-over-year rent growth was up in the first quarter of this year, the first positive annual rent growth in nine quarters. Monthly rentsascended 0.8% since the first quarter of 2014 to $794 in March. During this time, effective rents grew 1.2% to $781 per month asconcessions decreased from 2% to 1.6% of asking rents.






42

POPULATION

847,800 1.6%

EMPLOYMENT

294,800 2.1%

MEDIAN HOME PRICE

$145,900 3.3%

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

$39,100 2.1%

2014 REVIEWSustained employment growth and aggressive apartment development marked the El Paso economy in 2014. Employers added 6,100 workers to local payrolls, a 2.1% year-over-year gain. Losses were confined to the manufacturing and information sectors. The professional and business services segment expanded 3.3% with 1,000 new workers, bolstered by hiring at payroll services company ADP. The trade, transportation and utilities industry grew 3.3% as 2,100 jobs were created. The sector was supported by the Fountains at Farah regional lifestyle-shopping center which opened in November 2013 and continued to fill out this year with hundreds of new hires. Developers accommodated this job growth with an increase in new inventory last year. Completions totaled 600 rentals, the greatest annual deliveries since 2011.

Leasing activity was negative in the first quarter of 2014. During the next three quarters, apartment demand was positive, resulting in full-year absorption of 420 units, a reduction of 15.8% from the prior year. Leasing activity from 2009 to 2013 averaged 470 rentals.

Multifamily builders added 600 apartments to inventory in 2014, 18.6% greater than the combined deliveries in the prior two years. Approximately 160 units were completed in the 263-unit Santi Dwellings at Montecillo apartment community in northwest El Paso. The remainder of completions came online in the eastern portion of the metro area. In the Eastside Crossings community, approximately three-quarters of the development’s 188 units were finished. Development was completed at three additional projects in eastern El Paso: the 154-unit Casitas del Este, the 102-unit Ardent Quest and the 26-unit La Hacienda at Villa Victoria II.

Seeking to curb a temporary increase in vacancy, multifamily developers scaled back planning activity last year. Permits were requested for 600 apartments, a decrease of 85.1% from the prior year. Permitting activity from 2009 to 2013 averaged 1,140 units.

Apartment completions outpaced leasing activity last year. Consequently, metrowide vacancy edged up 30 basis points since year-end 2013, reaching 7.6% in December.

Asking rents advanced 1% to $800 per month in 2014, following a 2.1% decline the prior year. Concessions were 1.1% of asking rents in December, the same as year-end 2013.

EL PASO

* Estimate * Estimate

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14*

AVERAGE PRICE PER UNIT

TRANSACTIONS — SALES VOLUME (MILLIONS)

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

0

5

10

15

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14*

SALES VELOCITY

VACANCY AVERAGE RENT INCREASE AVERAGE RENTSUBMARKETS 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013

El Paso 7.6% 7.3% 1.0% -2.1% $800 $792

TOTALS 7.6% 7.3% 1.0% -2.1% $800 $792


QUICK FACTS

43Data and images pertaining to employment, income, permits, population, rents, single-family housing and vacancy are year-end figures. Absorption, construction and apartment sales figures are full-year totals. Numbers for 2014 are estimated values, while 2015 and 2016 figures are forecast projections. The sales information represents transactions of apartment properties with a sales price of $1 million or more. Apartment market data criteria and methodologies vary by market.

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

09 10 11 12 13 14* 15** 16**

PERMITS DELIVERIES

* Estimate; ** Forecast

VACANCY RENT GROWTH


-5%

0%

5%

10%

09 10 11 12 13 14* 15** 16**

FORECAST 2015Apartment fundamentals are expected to improve alongside continued economic expansion in the El Paso area in the next two years. The construction industry, in particular, will benefit from ongoing development of the Union Pacific Rail Hub in nearby Santa Teresa. Approximately 1,000 construction jobs will be supported at the project through 2015. An additional 1,000 specialty trade and general labor positions will be filled through 2016 at the William Beaumont Army Medical Center at Fort Bliss. In northwest El Paso, another hospital will open in late 2016, supporting additional construction workers until completion. Once open, this teaching facility, owned by Tenet Hospitals, will hire 300 medical workers. The construction and medical jobs will be significant contributors to 5,900 new hires this year throughout the metro area, a 2% annual increase. Next year, 6,300 new jobs will be created, a gain of 2.1%. The sustained employment expansion will spur apartment demand, as renters will occupy 1,200 additional apartments through 2016, driving vacancy down. Operators will capitalize on increased demand by raising asking rents 3.4% during the next two years.

Multifamily property sales activity, particularly among institutional-sized properties, has been limited in the last several years. This modest sales volume is expected to continue during the forecast period. Sales of assets with more than 200 units are primarily being targeted by out-of-state investors, while local and Texas-based buyers are usually concentrating on smaller properties, most of which are selling for under $10 million. These smaller assets often range in price from $25,000 to $45,000 per unit, depending on location and condition. Newer properties can command as much as $90,000 to $100,000 per unit.

Apartment demand will rise this year and then drop off slightly next year. Nearly 700 apartments will be absorbed in 2015, an annual increase of 65.6%. Next, year, demand is projected to decrease 18.1% as 570 additional rentals are occupied.

Multifamily builders will complete 160 rentals this year. The majority of this inventory will be located at the Eastside Crossings and the Santi Dwellings at Montecillo apartment communities which are projected to be completed in the first quarter of this year. In 2016, builders will deliver 510 units in the metro area.

Planning activity will rise 59.4% this year as multifamily developers request permits for 960 apartments. Next year, issuance is forecast to decrease 26.9% as 700 permits are requested.

Over the next 12 months, leasing will outpace completions by a wide margin, resulting in a rapid decrease in vacancy. By year-end, the metrowide rate will be 6.4%, a decline of 120 basis points. In 2016, vacancy is projected to fall an additional 20 basis points to 6.2%.

Operators will take advantage of increased demand during the next 24 months, raising asking rents 2% this year and 1.7% next year. By the end of 2016, average rent will be $829 per month.

VACANCY & RENT

ABSORPTIONEMPLOYMENT GROWTH

PERMITS & DELIVERIES

JOB CHANGE

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

09 10 11 12 13 14* 15** 16**

METRO — U.S.

* Estimate; ** Forecast * Estimate; ** Forecast

-2,500

-1,250

0

1,250

2,500

09 10 11 12 13 14* 15** 16**

GAINED I LOST


2006 4,800

2007 9,800

2008 (800)

2009 (3,200)

2010 5,300

2011 1,300

2012 6,000

2013 2,600

2014* 6,100

2015** 5,900

2016** 6,300

Conventional Average Market Rents $800 $816 $829

EL PASO2014 SALES SUMMARY

SALES VELOCITY

AVERAGE PRICE PER UNIT

2013 ANNUALSALES VOLUME

$35.4 M

2014 ANNUALSALES VOLUME

$13.8 M

SALES VOLUME% CHANGE

-61.2%

TRANSACTIONCOUNT

20132

20142

AVERAGE CAP RATE

SALES COMPARABLES

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Investors purchased two apartment communities in the El Paso metro area in 2014, unchanged from the number of assetsbought in 2013. Sales volume totaled $13.8 million last year, down from $35.4 million in the prior year. The sale of a largeproperty built in 2006 contributed to the elevated sales volume in 2013, whereas both properties traded in 2014 were 1980sstock.

In 2013, the average price per unit was $70,668, 54.1% higher than the average price during the prior five-year period. Thisincrease was due to the newer makeup of properties sold that year. In 2014, the average price per unit was $34,196, adecrease of 25.4% from the average price between 2008 and 2012.

The multifamily buyer profile was similar from 2013 to 2014, with one buyer from Texas and one from Utah. One of theapartment communities sold in 2013 was resold 15 months later in 2014.






el paso multifamily report 2q 2018 - texas a&m university...3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15 1q16 3q16...

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