ekin 3 this week
TRANSCRIPT
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*
kuliah 12PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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*SOME FEATURES OF INDONESIAS EXPORTSince mid of 1980s, structural change has occurred:Nonoil exports played more dominant role than oil exportsTrade liberalization toward export-orientation regime replaced inward-orientation
Chart1
13.372981477412.4067256989
13.718687476612.1802917469
14.080397626611.2601525966
14.361952343113.1649512993
14.779258542612.9638799299
15.197505790611.1823025561
15.460828249111.9095706097
15.739738519912.5772321843
16.21363240312.7761971492
16.650585727214.1418339064
16.957451287913.589684512
17.396292305314.7935559668
17.767883830313.9922990565
17.701213124313.7310931981
18.148723102812.7493468414
18.4722523914.5885135579
18.592162593415.9834138858
18.835306726916.7357468549
19.054134743416.9451412429
19.326754717718.4739713226
19.747419026518.1376046971
20.144002876919.8930250535
20.527731970120.8982502594
20.827807291221.7564341082
21.125129471522.3302732488
21.433816092123.3480116279
21.763608844524.1331787067
22.068152111625.6166160941
22.20211067626.7929635935
20.39053807624.9956709549
Normal pattern
Actual pattern
Year
% of GDP
Figure 3.1 Structural change in manufacturing sector
Chart2
13.372981477412.4067256989
13.718687476612.1802917469
14.080397626611.2601525966
14.361952343113.1649512993
14.779258542612.9638799299
15.197505790611.1823025561
15.460828249111.9095706097
15.739738519912.5772321843
16.21363240312.7761971492
16.650585727214.1418339064
16.957451287913.589684512
17.396292305314.7935559668
17.767883830313.9922990565
17.701213124313.7310931981
18.148723102812.7493468414
18.4722523914.5885135579
18.592162593415.9834138858
18.835306726916.7357468549
19.054134743416.9451412429
19.326754717718.4739713226
19.747419026518.1376046971
20.144002876919.8930250535
20.527731970120.8982502594
20.827807291221.7564341082
21.125129471522.3302732488
21.433816092123.3480116279
21.763608844524.1331787067
22.068152111625.6166160941
22.20211067626.7929635935
20.39053807624.9956709549
2125.9
2126
Source: BPS and author's estimate
Normal pattern
Actual pattern
Year
%
Figure 1.1Structural Change in the Manufacturing Sector
Sheet1
Normal patternActual pattern
196913.412.4
197013.712.2
197114.111.3
197214.413.2
197314.813.0
197415.211.2
197515.511.9
197615.712.6
197716.212.8
197816.714.1
197917.013.6
198017.414.8
198117.814.0
198217.713.7
198318.112.7
198418.514.6
198518.616.0
198618.816.7
198719.116.9
198819.318.5
198919.718.1
199020.119.9
199120.520.9
199220.821.8
199321.122.3
199421.423.3
199521.824.1
199622.125.6
199722.226.8
199820.425.0
199921.025.9
200021.026.0
Sheet2
Sheet3
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*Geographic concentration in terms of exportJava: manufacturing productsOuter islands: resource baseSumatra: mostly plantationAceh: LNGRiau: oil Batam: electronic productsKalimantan: wood-basedSulawesi: plantation, miningPapua: mining
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*PETA AKTIVITAS KONTAINER DUNIASecara umum, tampak bahwa Asia menunjukkan kinerja yang tinggi dalam aktivitas KONTAINER (TEU) dibandingkan dengan kawasan belahan dunia lainnya.
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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*Pelabuhan Indonesia di tengah perdagangan dunia
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*RANKING PELABUHAN DUNIABERDASARKAN TEUs
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*KONSTELASI PELABUHAN ASIA PASIFIKBERDASARKAN TEU Konstelasi pelabuhan di Asia Pasifik sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di Asia Timur seperti yang ditunjukkan dengan lingkaran merah & biru.
Secara global, aktivitas pelabuhan dunia juga terpusat di Asia Timur (6 dari 10 pelabuhan terbesar berlokasi di Asia Timur)
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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EMPAT PELABUHAN BESAR DI INDONESIA
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*Ketergantungan KTI Terhadap Pelabuhan di KBI
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*VALUE OF EXPORTS BY PRINCIPAL PORTS (% of total)Export by sea ports:Value of Exports: Java-Madura (45%), followed by Sumatra, KalimantanVolume of Exports: Sumatra (63%), Kalimantan, Java-MaduraIn terms of destination:Total: Japan, US, Singapore, European UnionOil: Jepang
RAW
VALUE OF EXPORTS BY PRINCIPAL PORTS
19901991199219931994
Tanjung Priok5122.66 885,29 731,110 903,211 410,6
Palembang397487,0445,9490,0686,6
Surabaya1506.32 151,32 800,73 118,32 993,5
Banjarmasin444.1511,2613,3727,9730,0
Ujung Pandang200.5228,0221,9258,1366,8
TOTAL INDONESIA25675.329 142,433 967,036 823,039 707,8
Belawan1 215,01 492,21 709,11 932,62 189,8
Pakan Baru & Dumai3 620,13 289,22 904,52 552,92 876,7
Semarang402,5467,6661,5780,1924,7
Bontang1 784,92 040,91 938,21 940,11 985,9
Amamapare374,4498,5731,1663,5829,3
OLAH
VALUE OF EXPORTS BY PRINCIPAL PORTS
19901994
Tanjung Priok5,122.611,410.6
Palembang397.0686.6
Surabaya1,506.32,993.5
Banjarmasin444.1730.0
Ujung Pandang200.5366.8
Belawan1,215.02,189.8
Pakan Baru & Dumai3,620.12,876.7
Semarang402.5924.7
Bontang1,784.91,985.9
Amamapare374.4829.3
TOTAL INDONESIA25,675.339,707.8
Ports19901994
Tanjung Priok20.028.7
Palembang1.51.7
Surabaya5.97.5
Banjarmasin1.71.8
Ujung Pandang0.80.9
Belawan4.75.5
Pakan Baru & Dumai14.17.2
Semarang1.62.3
Bontang7.05.0
Amamapare1.52.1
Others41.337.1
TOTAL INDONESIA100.0100.0
Sheet3
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*Questions to be addressedWhat are the impacts of trade openness on productivity, labour market and concentration ratio?Who benefited from trade protection? Did the trade openness lead to economic crisis?What are the major challenges for the future?
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*Export Intensity
Chart1
1316362699040602547
149887174580393736496
105894411650176326816
14934725609350443338410129
28216527133425552678122737
28327829929592292921867827
33580531567850244990487947
4319214063931854696068155
498264107391461585476265144
7315346522642237778942137739
8808225854449438755800152691
73215991856574532158128138011
851961123538729400139748161909
114640182288114089868803221395
13266641575731536890139134335479
17582971807471826295118338241376
18024442379542372732139260255059
28930613382343505678187715373020
37655382696074688332306313710395
433283030484259225284169911230883
424871430228570887305155781320487
488925435877389617887314711964287
56785214629671191015310648242920917
71795504660731396518113703154069674
74806813425081399685017769395433467
79924161555401414975626310765978020
85163151776231522707233141056910952
88270831499811282698037311885922340
69651252095971145174738373056644875
Source: As Figure 1.2
HCI
TI
ULI
ARI
MRI
ARI
MRI
ULI
TI
HCI
Year
Figure 1.4 Factor intensity composition of Indonesian non-oil manufacturing exports, 1970-98 (% of total )
exp-cls1
YEARCLASARIMRIULITIHCIISIC 3311ISIC 3512ISIC 3411ISIC 3522ARIMRIULITIHCI
1970113163681226990406252762280227291316362699040602547
1971114988720493580393737868187611371149887174580393736496
19721105894408571165017632106373679303791105894411650176326816
1973114934794863350443338415926183757579014934725609350443338410129
1974128216523499642555267813341724478121066828216527133425552678122737
1975128327848307592292939280407319331741661241428327829929592292921867827
1976133580520575850244990697868554062129979233580531567850244990487947
197714319212340099318572559758976635725599177414319214063931854696068155
19781498264327471146158786497287610843823887347698498264107391461585476265144
1979173153450003042237710886714882328505729925480462807315346522642237778942137739
1980188082264311049438787223169116319877314234749116768808225854449438755800152691
198117321596173045745321620771479524081233949543939873215991856574532158128138011
198218519615282497294001488231759955294049075241711669851961123538729400139748161909
198311146401624596114089810945924097877798240656565113932114640182288114089868803221395
198411326664671834153689017200837338395562032874262491165513266641575731536890139134335479
1985117582977173141826295189798283968112531671460271881540417582971807471826295118338241376
19861180244460426823727322515473038121345959112287322591649418024442379542372732139260255059
1987128930616515283505678260636482467220700172921901771927028930613382343505678187715373020
1988137655381060288468833242709285464627293281207791268391741237655382696074688332306313710395
198914332830118525859225285691091423649321999115211817535217414433283030484259225284169911230883
19901424871491743770887307051661536877308136018958819642219968424871430228570887305155781320487
199114889254918570896178810058842254475338254727441326625323935488925435877389617887314711964287
199215678521904235119101531234537323775538852461697132963262051256785214629671191015310648242920917
199317179550708849139651811509416451057151097021391014126502824771795504660731396518113703154069674
199417480681902632139968501943173595228948073121662344809843783874806813425081399685017769395433467
19951799241613077701414975628873417156306459957125626511344224386479924161555401414975626310765978020
19961851631512352211522707235710758090098473853025697011285015064585163151776231522707233141056910952
19971882708312030601282698040315207187218434705430033212233854149388270831499811282698037311885922340
19981696512510558591145174740229408625715266017118563519269085393269651252095971145174738373056644875
19702
19712
19722
19732
19742
19752
19762
19772
19782
19792
19802
19812
19822
19832
19842
19852
19862
19872
19882
19892
19902
19912
19922
19932
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
19703
19713
19723
19733
19743
19753
19763
19773
19783
19793
19803
19813
19823
19833
19843
19853
19863
19873
19883
19893
19903
19913
19923
19933
19943
19953
19963
19973
19983
19704
19714
19724
19734
19744
19754
19764
19774
19784
19794
19804
19814
19824
19834
19844
19854
19864
19874
19884
19894
19904
19914
19924
19934
19944
19954
19964
19974
19984
19705
19715
19725
19735
19745
19755
19765
19775
19785
19795
19805
19815
19825
19835
19845
19855
19865
19875
19885
19895
19905
19915
19925
19935
19945
19955
19965
19975
19985
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Competitiveness?World Competitiveness Report
Peringkat Daya Saing Negara versi World Competitiveness Report(n=49 negara)Negara200220011998USA111Singapura522Malaysia262912Korea272836Jepang302620Cina313321Thailand343841Indonesia474940
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*Competitiveness Cube:IMD versionSumber: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, http://www02.imd.ch/wcy/methodology/
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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*Competitiveness FactorsEconomic Performance74 kriteria Evaluasi makro ekonomi domestik Government Efficiency84 kriteriaSeberapa jauh kebijakan pemerintah kondusif Business Efficiency 66 kriteriaSeberapa jauh kinerja perusahaan Infrastructure 90 kriteriaSeberapa jauh infrastruktur dasar, teknologi, ilmiah, SDM memenuhi kebutuhan bisnis
Economic Performance Domestic Economy International Trade International Investment EmploymentPrices Govern-ment EfficiencyPublic Finance Fiscal Policy Institutional Framework Business Legistlation Education Business Efficiency Productivity Labor Market Finance Management Practices Impact of Gobalization Infra-structureBasic Infrastructure Technological Infrastructure Scientific Infrastructure Health and Environment Value System
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*Dimension of Competitiveness CubeAttractiveness vs AggressivenessAgresive: Germany, Japan and Korea Attractive (incentive): Ireland and Singapore Proximity vs Globality Sticky places in slippery spaceThink globally but act locallyAssets vs Processes Rich in assets (land, labor, natural resources) is not always competitive Process in creating competitive advantageIndividual Risk Taking vs Social CohesivenessAnglo-Saxon model focus on:Risk-lovers, enterpreneurDeregulationPrivatisationIndividual responsibilityMinimalist in welfare system. Continental European Model:Social consensus Egaliterian in responsibilityExtensive welfare system
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*LADDER OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
Export By Categories, Indonesia 1975 - 1995 (%)
Category
1975
1985
1995
NRI (Natural Resource Intensive)
2.51
48.59
21.13
ULI (Unskilled Labour Intensive)
17.18
31.75
36.78
PCI (Physical Capital Intensive)
19.94
4.97
7.76
HCI (Human Capital Intensive)
21.56
4.84
11.57
TI (Technological Intensive)
30.84
9.85
13.14
Total Manufaktur
100
100
100
Source : Goeltom (1996)
Note : NRI : SITC 53,63,66 (except 664, 665, 666)
ULI : SITC 65, 664, 665, 666, 81-85, 89 (except 896, 897)
PCI : SITC 51, 52, 67, 71, 72, 73, 75, 751
HCI : SITC 55, 62, 64, 69, 775, 78, 79, 885, 896, 897
TI : SITC 54, 56, 57, 59, 752, 789, 76, 77 (except 775), 87, 88 (except 885)
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*
Table 1: Dispersion of protection 1975-95 (%)
Sectors
NRP
NRP
RERP
RERP
All sectors.
Non oil Mfg
All sectors
Non Oil Mfg.
1975
Mean (%)
34
169*
Std.dev(%)
51
513*
1987
Mean (%)
12
21
4
59
Std. dev (%)
17
21
42
102
1995
Mean (%)
3
6
0
16
Stad.dev.(%)
17
17
26
39
Source: Fane and Condon, 1996; World Bank, 1981. Note: * = ERP
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*Trade openness and CR4
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*Inter-industry protectionInter-industry variations of protection in manufacturing sector were not simply random in nature. After the mid 1980s the role of crony capitalists and interest group was increasingly important in determining trade protection.
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*ContinueFor 1987 and 1995, manufacturings protections were the result of interest groups and crony capitalist pressure. Implicitly, the structure of protection depends on the cost benefits and of building a personal relationship (in the case of crony capitalists) or lobbying (in the case of interest groups).Whereas for 1975 variations of manufacturings protection can be explained better by the national policy model.Using Grossman and Helpman model, the empirical study show that the role of crony capitalists was important in influencing trade protection in Indonesian manufacturing sector.
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*Why trade protection changed overtime?Besides the tug of war between protectionist vs. pro market, trends of import protection were influenced by changes in real oil prices and the real exchange rate. Adequate depreciation of the real exchange rate indirectly protect domestic goods from imports, leading to less pressure for import protection.The declined of oil price raised the profitability of the non-oil traded sector by depressing the price of the non-traded sector, resulting in less demand for the average tariff.
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*Did openness have anything to do with the crisis?There was no clear link between the Krugman myth and the current crisis. The economic crisis was mainly to do with weak banking system, financial markets, exchange rates, the problem of short term debt, capital mobility and political disturbancesCosetti ,Pesenti and Roubini (1998) argue that the structural and policy distortions had caused the plunge of exchange rates, assets prices and economic activity to be more severe than warranted by initial weak economic conditions.There is a little evidence to support that openness led to economic crisis. But weak institution and policy distortions severe the economic crisis
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*Much trade protections has been phased out. In addition Indonesia is required to eliminate all trade restrictions by the end of the IMF program. Average tariff (simple av. declined to 7.3%, tariff dispersions also decreased from 16.7% (1996) to 10.8% (2000)The trade reform of the last decade has successfully created many proponents for economic liberalization, including exporters, academics, media and government officers.The protectionist groups are still prevalent and hold some key positions both in government and in the business sectors. Patron-client relationships or rent seeking activities continue to take place. Although there is a less pressure for protection compared to the 1970s, it is likely that the tug of war between pro and anti trade reform groups will continue to take place . Example: case of wheat flour
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*TRADE LIBERALISATIONOne of the crucial issues is whether trade liberalisation has reinforced the geographic concentration or geographic dispersion.The inward-looking strategy was reversed in the mid-1980s when international trade policy was liberalised (see table below).
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
Summary of Trade Reforms in Indonesia
1973-84
1985-1995
Protection
Increased NTBs (Non-Tariff Barriers)
From NTBs to tariffs and tariff reduction
Neutralise
Reduction tariff (79)
Tariff reforms (85)
Customs reforms (85)
Shipping deregulation (85)
Improved duty drawbacks (86)
Improve textile quota allocation (87)
Promotion
Export credit (82)
Removal of subsidised export credit (GATT) (90)
Source: Rearranged from Pangestu (1997)
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*Barriers to trade tend to decline steadilySource: ASEAN Secretariat and http://www.us-asean.org/afta.asp, 5 Maret 2003
Average AFTA / CEPT Tariff Rates 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Brunei 1.351.291.000.970.940.87Indonesia7.045.854.974.634.203.71Laos5.005.005.005.005.005.00Malaysia3.583.172.732.542.382.06Myanmar4.474.454.383.323.313.19Philippines7.967.005.595.074.803.75Singapore0.000.000.000.000.000.00Thailand10.569.757.407.366.024.64Vietnam6.063.783.302.902.892.02ASEAN5.374.773.873.653.252.68
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*HAMBATAN PENGEMBANGAN EKSPOR KE KAWASAN AMERIKA DAN ASIA Hambatan tarif; Hambatan non tarif yaitu standardisasi, holding order, karantina, SPS (bioterorisme);Tuduhan dumping dan tindakan safeguard;Isu-isu HAM, lingkungan, dll;
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*HAMBATAN PENCAPAIAN EKSPOR (EKSTERNAL)Semakin tajamnya persaingan global (perdagangan dan investasi)Meningkatnya proteksionisme dan blok perdaganganMeningkatnya kecenderungan penerapan hambatan non-tarifTidak pastinya harga produk primer.
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*HAMBATAN (INTERNAL)Belum optimalnya pemanfaatan kapasitas produksi;Obsolete-nya teknologi produksi;Sangat tergantungnya pada impor bahan baku;Adanya relokasi footlose industries;Lemahnya penguasaan pasar dan belum efisiennya sistem distribusi;Munculnya Perda-perda baru yang tidak mendukung pengembangan industri dan perdagangan;
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*LANGKAH-LANGKAH KEBIJAKANMendorong eskalasi ekspor non-migas dan meningkatkan daya saing global produk-produk ekspor (memanfaatkan fasilitas preferensi internasional: GSP, GSTP, dsb.);Meningkatkan ekspor ke pasar non-tradisional (Asia Timur, Asia Selatan, Amerika Latin);Meningkatkan diplomasi dagang ke negara mitra utama dan mitra-mitra baru serta meningkatkan trade promotion;Mengembangkan sistem distribusi nasional yang efisien dan efektif;Mendorong kekuatan industri nasional menuju pembentukan industrial cluster;Secara konsisten melaksanakan kebijakan revitalisasi industri;
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@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM*PELUANG PENGEMBANGAN KAWASAN DENGAN KERJASAMA REGIONALKawasan Pengembangan Strategis yang merupakan pintu gerbang untuk pasar regional dengan:negara anggota APEC: Batam, Pontianak, Samarinda-Balipapan, Manado-Bitung, dan BiakUni Eropa, Timur Tengah dan Asia Selatan: Lhokseumawe, Padang, Medan,dan Batam;Australia: Timika , Kupang dan Denpasar.distribusi utama untuk pasar domestiK antar kawasan: Medan, Lampung,Jakarta, Semarang, Surabaya, Banjarmasin, dan Makasar
@Mudrajad/Faculty of Economics UGM
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*Keterkaitan Antar KAWASAN PENGEMBANGAN STRATEGIS dan Orientasi Perdagangan