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Viewpointpaper–AquaticConservation

Eighturgentfundamentalandsimultaneousstepsneededtorestoreoceanhealth,andtheconsequencesforhumanityandtheplanetofinactionordelay.

Authors:Laffoley,D.1*,Baxter,J.M.2,Amon,D.J.3,Currie,D.E.J.4,Downs,C.A.5,Hall-Spencer,J.M.6,Harden-Davies,H.7,Page,R.8,Reid,P.C.6,9,Roberts,C.M.10,Rogers,A.11,12,Thiele,T.13,Sheppard,C.R.C.14,Sumaila,U.R.15,andWoodall,L.C.16.

*correspondingauthor

Affiliations:

1IUCNWorldCommissiononProtectedAreas,IUCN(InternationalUnionforConservationofNature),28rueMauverney,CH-1196Gland,Switzerland.

2MarineAllianceforScienceandTechnologyforScotland,SchoolofBiology,EastSands,UniversityofStAndrews,FifeKY168LB,UK.

3DepartmentofLifeSciences,NaturalHistoryMuseum,London,CromwellRoad,LondonSW75BD,UK.

4Globelaw,Christchurch,NewZealand.

5HaereticusEnvironmentalLaboratory,Clifford,Virginia,USA.

6SchoolofMarineandBiologicalSciences,UniversityofPlymouth,PL48AA,UK.

7AustralianNationalCentreforOceanResourcesandSecurity,UniversityofWollongong,Wollongong,NSW2500,Australia.

8InternationalProgrammeontheStateoftheOcean(IPSO).

9TheContinuousPlanktonRecorderSurvey,MarineBiologicalAssociation,TheLaboratory,CitadelHill,PlymouthPL12PB,UK.

10DepartmentofEnvironmentandGeography,UniversityofYork,York,YO105DD,UK.

11SomervilleCollege,UniversityofOxford,WoodstockRoad,OxfordOX26HD,UK.

12REVOcean,Oksenøyveien10,NO-1366Lysaker,Norway.

13InstituteforAdvancedSustainabilityStudies,BerlinerStrasse,14471Potsdam,Germany.

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14.SchoolofLifeSciences,UniversityofWarwick,CoventryCV47AL,UK.

15FisheriesEconomicsResearchUnit,InstitutefortheOceansandFisheries&LiuInstituteforGlobalIssues,TheUniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver,B.C.,Canada,V6T1Z4.

16DepartmentofZoology,UniversityofOxford,ZoologyResearchandAdministrationBuilding,11aMansfieldRd,OxfordOX13SZ,UK.

Keywords:ocean,sustainability,protection,highseas,climatechange,mining,fisheries,MPAs,fishing,pollution,finance,scientificresearch

Abstract

1. Theoceancrisisisurgentandcentraltohumanwell-beingandlifeonEarth;pastandcurrentactivitiesaredamagingtheplanet’smainlifesupportsystemforfuturegenerations.Wearewitnessinganincreaseinoceanheat,disturbance,acidification,bio-invasionsandnutrients,andreducingoxygen.Severaloftheseactlikeratchets:oncedetrimentalornegativechangeshaveoccurred,theymaylockinplaceandmaynotbereversible,especiallyatgrossecologicalandoceanprocessscales.

2. Eachchangemayrepresentalosstohumanityofresources,ecosystemfunction,oxygenproductionandspecies.Thelongerwepursueunsuitableactions,themoreweclosethepathtorecoveryandbetteroceanhealthandgreaterbenefitsforhumanityinthefuture.

3. Westandatacriticaljunctureandhaveidentifiedeightpriorityissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinunisontohelpavertapotentialecologicaldisasterintheglobalocean.Theyformapurposely-ambitiousagendaforglobalgovernanceandareaimedatinformingdecision-makersatahigh-level.

4. Ofallthethemes,thehighestpriorityistorigorouslyaddressglobalwarmingandlimitsurfacetemperatureriseto1.5°Cby2100,aswarmingisthepre-eminentfactordrivingchangeintheocean.TheotherthemesareestablishingarobustandcomprehensiveHighSeasTreaty,enforcingexistingstandardsforMPAsandexpandingtheircoverage,especiallyintermsofhighlevelsofprotection,imposingaprecautionarypauseondeep-seamining,endingoverfishinganddestructivefishingpractices,radicallyreducingmarinepollution,puttinginplaceafinancingmechanismforoceanmanagementandprotectionand,lastly,scaling-upscience/datagatheringandfacilitatingdatasharing.

5. Byimplementingalleightmeasuresinunison,asacoordinatedstrategy,wecanbuildresiliencetoclimatechange,helpsustainfisheriesproductivity,particularlyforlow-incomecountriesdependentonfisheries,protectcoasts(e.g.viasoft-engineering/habitat-basedapproaches),promotemitigation(e.g.carbonstorage)andenableimprovedadaptationtorapidglobalchange.

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1.Introduction

TheApollo8photographstakenonChristmasEve1968revealedourworldastheblueplanet,finiteandbeautifulinthedarkvoidofspace.Backthen,fewcouldhaveimaginedtheimpactwearenowhavingonthisoceanworld.Intheinterveningyearswehavewitnessedmuchdiscussion,somevaluedkeyactions,butnowherenearthescaleofwhatisneededtokeeppace,letalonegetaheadoftheproblemsouractivitiesarecausingtothenaturalworld.

Theocean,byitsbreadthanddepth,occupiesmorethan97%ofthelivingspaceonEarth.Itdominatestheprocessesthatkeepourplanethabitablesuchasregulatingtheclimatebyabsorbingexcesscarbondioxideandheat(e.g.Bijma,Pörtner,Yesson,&Rogers,2013;IPCC,2013;Levitus,Antonov,&Boyer,2005;Reidetal.,2009;Rogers,Sumaila,Hussain,&Baulcomb,2014;Wijffels,Roemmich,Monselesan,Church,&Gilson,2016).Butthisprotectioncomesatacostastheoceanisnowbecomingmoreacidic(Cattano,Claudet,Domenici,&Milazzo,2018;Duffyetal.,2018,Goodetal.2018),isheatingupwithvirtuallyeveryyearnowbeingarecord-breakinghotyear(Chengetal.,2019;Frölicher,Fischer,&Gruber,2018;Gleckler,Durack,Stouffer,Johnson,&Forest,2016;Zanna,Khatiwala,Gregory,Ison,&Heimbach,2019),andtheoceanislosingitslife-givingoxygen(Levin,2018).Theconcernishowmuchlongertheoceancancontinuetofunctionasitis,whilstsubjecttothepressuresofclimatechangeandotherimpacts.Wearealreadywitnessingagainsthistoricbaselinestheimpactsofachangingoceanonmarinelifeandtheeconomy(Cheung,Watson,&Pauly,2013;Gattusoetal.,2015;Sumaila,Cheung,Lam,Pauly,&Herrick,2011;Sumailaetal.,2019).Fortoolongwehavemistakentheimmensityoftheoceanforinviolability,butthosedaysaregone,andwestandatacriticaljuncture.Cuttingemissions,whileessential,willnotalonesolvetheenvironmentalproblemsweface.Whatisneededisasuiteofmeasures,implementedtogether,tohelpgainthemaximumopportunitytorestoreoceanhealth.

Here,weproposeeightmeasureswhich,ifacteduponsimultaneously,wouldrepresentamajorsteptowardsrecoveringoceanhealthandsafeguardingplanetaryandhumanwell-being–theoveralleffectbeingfarmorethantheactionsimplementedinisolation.Theyformapurposelyambitiousagendaforgovernmentsandseniorpolicyadvisorsanddecision-makers.Thisisbecausethechallengeswefacearenowsovastthatgrandambition,andastrongleadershipanddirectionareneededifwearetoavoidreachingecologicalthresholdsbeyondwhichoceanhealthwilldeclineabruptly.

Thepopularconsensusisthatwehaveabout10yearstomakethesechanges,andthereisagreatopportunityrightnowtomakethishappen.Thereasonisthat2020isthedeadlineformanyinternationalprocessesandpolicies.TheParisClimateAgreementcomesintoforcein2020withitsimplementationplan,negotiationsfortheUNtreatyonbiodiversityprotectionbeyondnationaljurisdictionarescheduledtobecompletedby2020,andanoceanSustainableDevelopmentGoalhastargetsthataretobedeliveredby2020.Properlyimplementingthesepolicyopportunitiesandbringingtheseglobaleffortstogethermustbearfruitasscientistswarnthattippingpointsinoceandeclinearenowsignificantlymorelikelytohappenifactionisnottaken(Beaugrandetal.,inpress;Steffenetal.,2018).

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2.Developingtheconsensus

Inlate2018,theInternationalProgrammeontheStateofOcean(IPSO)convenedexpertsforaworkshoponoceanhealth.Thisrepeatedanexercisein2011thatproducedaglobalStateoftheOceanreport(Rogers&Laffoley,2013).The2011reportwarnedofthethreatofmassmarineextinctionscausedbythemultiplestressorsaffectingoceanhealth.Itgarneredworldwidegovernmentandmediaattentionandwaspartofanincreaseinthevisibilityoftheincreasingrateofdeclineinthefunctioningoftheocean.

ThistimeIPSOaskedoceanexpertsacrossscience,law,policy,andeconomicstoconsiderthemajoractionsneededtoachieveoceanprotection,consideringchangesalreadylockedintotheecosystem;thecurrent,andlikelyfuture,operatingenvironmentforpolicy,legalandothersolutions;andemergingthreatsandopportunities.Withoutexception,theexpertsareunitedonfourpoints.Theseexperts:

• highlightourimprovingunderstandingofoceanecosystemsandprocesses,whichprovideamultitudeofvitalservicesonwhichweallrely,butalsohowthereisstillmuchtolearn,asshownbytheever-increasingrateofdiscoveryofnewmarinespecies;

• arealarmedbythesignificantrateofhuman-inducedchangeoccurringnow,whichthreatensthatlife;

• aregravelyconcernedthatthewindowofopportunityforactionisclosing;and

• areunitedinproposinganurgentsuiteofmeasurestobetterprotectandmanagetheocean.

Theanalysiswasbasedaroundthefollowingquestions:

1. Fromyourperspective,wherearethemajorgapsinoceanprotection/conservationeffort?

2. Whichthreeinterventionswouldmakethebiggestpositiveimpactsinarrestingthetrajectoryofoceandecline?

3. Whatoneactionshouldbetakenwithinthenextthreeyearsifwe’regoingtomakethedifferenceintime,orwhatdowehavetodonowbecausedelaywillmeanthenegativeimpactswillbeirreversible/catastrophic?

4. Arethererecenttrendsinoceanchangewhich,inyourview,arecauseforconcernandneedmoreattention?

5. Ifyouhadthepower,whatwouldyouchange/do/implementtomorrow?

Byidentifyingkeyopportunitiesforoceanprotection,theIPSOexerciseenabledstrategicdecisionstobemadeaboutwhereexistingworkcanbeamplifiedoraugmented.Ithelpedidentifygapsineffort,fundingandgeographiccapacityandshowedhowexistingwork,approachesandsolutionscouldbereplicated,scaledandaligned.

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3.Keymessages

ThereisgrowingunderstandingofthefunctioningoftheoceananditsessentialroleinmakinglifeonEarthpossible(e.g.Steffenetal.,2018).Newsciencehasmadethedeterioratingstateoftheoceanclearerthanever(e.g.Breitbergetal.,2018;Oschlies,Brandt,Stramma,&Schmidtko,2018).Ofparticularconcernisthedeoxygenationofvastregions(Levin,2018)andincreasingratesofacidification(e.g.Cattanoetal.,2018;Duffyetal.,2018)andwarmingduetoincreasinglevelsofcarbondioxide(e.g.Wijffelsetal.,2016),alongwithevidencethattheoceanisbecominglessproductive(e.g.Laufkotteretal.,2015).Alongsidetheever-presentissueofoverfishing,thesethreatscomeduringarushtosecureextractionrights(e.g.oilandgas,seabedmining)overincreasingareasanddepths,withexistingregulatorybodiespoorlyequippedtocoordinateactivitiesandconsiderpotentialimpactsinasystematicway.Advancesintechnologyplayanimportantroleindatagathering,monitoringandenforcementofrules,buthumanactioniskey.Alltheexpertssurveyedcalledfortheneedtoincreaseoceanliteracythroughtheglobalspreadofscientificinformationabouttheoceanandtheeconomicactivitiesthataredependentonit.

Theexpertsidentifiedthefollowingeightpriorityactionsneededtoavertecologicaldisasterintheglobalocean.

1. Addressclimatechange:implementpoliciestolimitthetemperatureriseto1.5oC,butpreparefora2-3oCtemperaturerise.

2. Securearobust,comprehensiveHighSeasTreatywithaConferenceofPartiesandaScientificCommittee.

3. Enforceexistingstandardsforeffectivemarineprotectedareas(MPAs),andinparticularfully-protectedmarinereserves,andextendtheirscopetofullyprotectatleast30%oftheocean,includingrepresentationofallhabitatsandthehighseas,whileensuringeffectivemanagementtopreventsignificantadverseeffectsfor100%oftherestoftheocean.

4. Imposeaprecautionarypauseondeep-seaminingtoallowtimetogainsufficientknowledgeandunderstandingtosupportinformeddecisionsandeffectivemanagement.

5. Endoverfishinganddestructivepracticesincludingillegal,unreportedandunregulated(IUU)fishing.

6. Radicallyreducemarinewaterpollution.

7. Provideafinancingmechanismforoceanmanagementandprotection.

8. Scale-upscientificresearchontheoceanandincreasetransparencyandaccessibilityofoceandatafromallsources(i.e.science,government,industry).

Thelasttwoareascutacrossthefirstsix.Eachtopicisconsideredinmoredetailbelowtojustifyandexplainthemainpointsforaction.

3.1Addressclimatechange:implementpoliciestolimitthetemperatureriseto1.5oC,butpreparefora2-3oCtemperaturerise

Climatechange,drivenbyrisingatmosphericcarbondioxidelevelsandothergreenhousegasessuchasmethane,withassociatedoceanwarming,acidificationanddeoxygenation,wasacriticalconcernofalltheexpertssurveyed.Itisadifficultpoliticalandsocio-economicproblemthatisbeingsidelinedinfavourofmoreeasilytackledissuessuchasreducingplasticpollution(StaffordandJones2019).Therewasunanimityontheneedtomaintainastrongfocusonclimatechangeasthecentral

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issueandnotgetsidetrackedbyotherissues,whichstillneedtobeaddressedbutnotatthecostofaddressingclimatechange.Asthepre-eminentfactordrivingchangeintheocean,climatechangemustremainattheforefrontofallaction.

Climatechangeimpactsintheoceanarepervasiveandaccelerating,andtheyinteractwithmostoftheotherhumanoceanicimpacts.Themostfamiliarimpactsareoftenseenassea-levelriseandincreasedstormintensity,but,alongwithsurfacewarmingfromclimatechange,oceanwarming,acidificationanddeoxygenationarenowofsuchseriousconcernthattheyhavebeenreferredtobytheIPSOworkshopexpertsastheotherthreeof“thefourhorsemenoftheapocalypse”.Thesestressorsarenotbeingaddressedbytheglobalcommunitywiththeurgencythatisneeded.Alreadywehaveseenthethreatofextinctionofreef-formingcoralsincreasedramatically,largelyasaresultofoceanwarmingdrivingrepeatedmasscoralbleachingevents(seeCarpenteretal.,2008;Hughesetal.,2018;Veronetal.,2009).Polarecosystemsareundermajorthreatfromenvironmentalchangesincludingrisingtemperatures,lossofseaice,changesinprimaryproductivityandinvasivespecies.ThesethreatsarealreadymanifestingintheArcticandregionallywithintheAntarctic(e.g.Atkinsonetal.,2019;Constableetal.,2014;Eameretal.,2013).Eventhedeepseaisnotprotectedfromtheeffectsofclimatechange(Sweetmanetal.,2017).Boththedirectimpactsfromwarminganddeoxygenationandtheindirecteffectsviachangesinthequantityandqualityofsurfaceprimaryproductionarelikelytoimpacttheabundanceandbiomassofthebiotaontheseabedandinthewatercolumn,withsignificantconsequencesforvitaloceanfunctions,suchasfoodprovisionthroughpolewardshifts,andconsequencesforchangesinfisheriescatch(Cheungetal.2010,Barangeetal.2014)andactivetransportandburialofcarbon(e.g.Ashfordetal.,2018;Rogers,2015;Sumailaetal.,2019).Overall,theeffectsofclimatechangeonmarineecosystemshavebeenglobalandhavemanifestedrapidlyandatlargescales(Beaugrandetal.,inpress)withmajorimpactsonecosystemstructure,functionandserviceprovisiontohumankindthathavemeasurablesocialandeconomicconsequences(Gattusoetal.,2015;Lam,Cheung,Reygondeau,&Sumaila,2016).

Weareseeingtheeffectsofclimatechangeandacidificationthroughmarineheatwaves(Frölicheretal.,2018)andpulsesofacidifiedorlowoxygenwatercausingmarineorganismstoeithersuffocate,starve,dieofheatstrokeorbecomecorrodedbyacidification(e.g.Birkeland,2019).Emergenceofnoveloceanconditionsfororganisms,fromplanktontomammals,aredrivingshiftsinspeciesdistributionsandrapidlyalteringthefundamentalecologyofthecoastalhabitatsuponwhichpeoplerelyforincomeandwell-being(Agostinietal.,2018).

WhilstitisimperativethattheParisAgreementbeimplementedinfull,andthatsurfacetemperaturerisesbelimitedto1.5oC,not2oC(Veronetal.,2009),ifwearetoprotectmarinebiodiversity,jobsandincomesoffishersandhouseholdbudgetsforseafood(Sumailaetal.,2019),weshouldalsopreparefortheworst.IftheParisAgreementistobesuccessfulthentheoceanmustbefullyintegratedintotheclimateregimewithanappropriatecarbonprice,soocean-climateinteractionsandconsequencesareproperlyrecognisedandmanaged.

Theneedforaction

Researchshowsthattheoceanhasbeenheatingfasteranddeeperthanscientistshadpreviouslythought(e.g.Breitbergetal.,2018;Oschliesetal.,2018).Therearesignsthattheoceanmightbestartingtoreleasesomeofthestoredthermalenergyasseenduringthe2015-16ElNino,whichcouldcontributetosignificantglobaltemperatureincreasesinthecomingyears(Yin,Overpeck,Peyser,&Stouffer,2018).Increasingtheunderstandingofheatabsorptionandheatreleasefromtheseatotheatmosphereshouldbearesearchpriority.Recentreportsandpapers(e.g.Altieri&

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Diaz,2019;Breitbergetal.,2018)showanalarmingtrendofdecliningoxygenlevelsintheocean.TheBayofBengalstandsoutasanexample,whereincreasingseawatertemperatureshavechangedcurrentsandmonsooncyclesatthesametimeasagrochemicalandsewagelevelshavebuiltup,threateningtopushthisentiresystemtooceanbasinanoxia.Thiswouldhavesevereimpactsonregionalfoodsecurityandtheglobalnitrogencycle(Bristowetal.,2016).

Oceanacidificationisalsoofgreatconcernasitisrapidlychangingthechemistryofseawaterandyetscientistshaveverylittleconfidenceintheirabilitytopredicttheknock-oneffectsofthesemajorchangesonmarinefood-websandecosystems.Oneoftheclearestsignaturesofacceleratingoceancatastropheisseenincoralreefs,bothdeepandshallow,duetooceanwarmingandacidification(Hughesetal.,2018;Steiner,Turchyn,Harpaz,&Silverman,2018).Around90%ofcoralreefsarealreadydamagedthroughunsustainableuse(Birkeland,2019),withallreefs,eventhosethatarelessexploited,severelythreatenedbywarmingandacidification.Wearepotentiallywitnessingtheendofthegreatesteraofcoralreefgrowthingeologicalhistoryandarefacedwiththechallengeofmanagingtheirdeclinebyworkingtokeepasmanyofthemasproductiveaspossible.Ifareductionincarbonemissionsoccurssoon,wewillstillhavethebuildingblocksofcoralreefbiodiversitytoenablerecoveryandstartrestoringthedamagedone.

3.2SecurearobustcomprehensiveHighSeasTreatywithaConferenceofPartiesandaScientificCommittee

Thehighseasoccupyabout61%oftheoceansurfaceand43%ofthesurfaceoftheplanet,butthereareonlypiecemealregionalandsectoralmeanstoprotectmarineareasforbiodiversityconservationandnocoherentapproachtoeffectivelyassess,monitorandmanagetheenvironmentalimpactsofhumanactivities(Gjerde&Harden-Davies,2018).Effortstoprotectglobal-scalebiodiversity,suchasthroughrepresentativenetworksofMPAs,areflawedwhenthehighseasarenotincluded(Sumailaetal.,2015).

Itisessentialthatanambitioustreatyontheconservationandsustainableuseofmarinebiodiversitybeyondnationaljurisdiction(BBNJ)beachievedby2020.Arobustfit-for-purposetreatyisessentialifwearetomeetcurrentandimpendingchallengestosustainingvitaloceanservicesandvarietyofmarinelife.Thetreatyisseenasaonce-in-a-generationopportunity,whichifmissedwillhaunthumankindfordecadestocome.Suchatreatyshouldinclude:

● aConferenceofParties(CoP)toensurebettercoordination,cooperation,oversightandgovernance;

● anindependentscientificcommittee,andothernecessarygovernancearrangements;

● globalinstitutionalarrangementsthroughwhichStatePartiescanactdirectly,andwhichcanalsoraisetheambition,performanceandconservationcapacitiesofdisparateregionalandsectoralbodies;

● votingproceduresthatensurethatself-interestedpartiescannotvetoeffectiveactions;and

● adequatefundingmechanismsfortheCoPandsupportingactivities.

Intheinterim,activitiesthoughttobeunequivocallydamaging,suchasdeep-seaminingininternationalwaters,shouldnottakeplaceuntilpropergovernance,scienceandprecautionarymanagementtoolsaresecuredthatwillensureeffectiveprotectionofthemarineenvironmentanditsbiodiversity(seeSection3.4).

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Theneedforaction

Oceanlifeinthehighseasanddeepseasbeyondnationalboundariesisunderthreat(Merrieetal.,2014).Ithastaken15yearsofefforttogettothepointofnegotiatingaBBNJtreaty(Wright,Rochette,Druel,&Gjerde,2016)andnowthatnegotiationshavebegun,itisessentialtoachieveanagreementthatwillensureeffectivebiodiversityprotectionfortheglobaloceanbeyondnationalboundaries.Thisneedsawhole-oceanapproachthatencompassestheuppersunlitwatercolumn,themid-watercolumn,andthedeepseabedbelow.TheUNBBNJprocessisseenasacrucialopportunitytoresetthebalanceinfavourofsustainabilityandprotectionandawayfromdestructivepracticesandunsustainableuse.Thetreatyprocessisanopportunitytocreateanempoweredinternationalorganizationdedicatedtoaholisticapproachtoprotectingandpreservingoceanlifeandtheservicesitprovidestohumankind.Thetreatyprocessisalsoseenasanurgentlyneededopportunitytoshineaspotlightongovernmentsandrequirethemtoact,includingintherealmoffisheriesmanagement.Fisherieshaveasignificantimpactonbiodiversity(Crespo&Dunn,2017;Thrush,Ellingsen,&Davis,2016;Wormetal.,2006)andthusmeasuressuchasMPAsandenvironmentalimpactassessments(EIAs)toprotectbiodiversityfromtheimpactsofhighseasactivitiesneedtobeacorefocusofthenegotiationsandallactivitiesunderthejurisdictionandcontrolofStatePartiesmadesubjecttoanyprotectionmeasuresagreed.

Sothatwecanlookattheoceanholistically,thetreatymustintegratedifferentaspectsofoceanmanagement(fisheriesmanagement,oceanprotection,themanagingofminingandshipping).Sectoralorganizationssuchasregionalfisheriesmanagementorganizations(RFMOs),theInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO),andtheInternationalSeabedAuthority(ISA)mustbebettercoordinatedandintegratedinordertoconservemarinebiodiversity.Thetreatywillneedtocontainoverarchinggoals,principlesandobjectivesaswellasrobustaccountability,reportingandcompliancemechanismsthatareapplicabletoallStatesandinternationalorganizations.

Actionisalsoneededtoreformvotingrightsinsectoralorganizationsastoomanyhaveafewdominanteconomicstakeholderswhocan,throughconsensusrequirements,makeorbreakreformandcontrolbywhichdecisionsareagreedorwhichresolutionsareadopted.Toooftendecisionsaretaken–ornottaken–thatsimplymaintainthestatusquo,anddonotreflecttheambitionrequiredtoconfrontchallengestooceanhealth.ThereneedstobeatransformationinourapproachtomanagingeconomicactivitiesinABNJ,onethatputsbiodiversityandecosystemresilienceattheforefrontofpolicy,planningandmanagement.Inotherwords,activitiesshouldbeundertakeninwaysthatdonotunderminetheintegrityofmarineecosystemsoradverselyaffecttheirabilitytosustainviablepopulationsoftargetandnon-targetspeciesandmaintainvitalecosystemfunctions.

Thetreatyneedstoensurethatdecisionsarebasedonindependentscience.AfutureoceanCoPneedstodesignaneffectivescientificadvisoryprocessthatensuresbalancedparticipationandadherencetoscientificadviceandrecommendations,andalsosupportsthemarinescientificresearchneededtoensureinformeddecision-making.InRFMOs,scienceisalltoooftennotaddressed,ignored,sidelinedorpoliticised(e.g.Wakefield,2019).Negotiationsmustidentifythemetricsandtoolsneededtomakeagreementswork.Arigorousapproachtoandmoreworkinthisareaareneeded,whichwillalsohelpgalvanisesupportfortheprocesses.Effectivefundingmechanismswillbeessentialtoensurethestructuresagreedcanfunction(seeSection3.7below).

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3.3EnforceexistingstandardsforeffectiveMarineProtectedAreas(MPAs)andextendtheirscopetoprotectatleast30%oftheocean,includingthehighseas

ThethirdpriorityrelatestoMPAswherethefocusneedstoradicallyincreasethelevelofprotectionaffordedbyexistingMPAsandtoexpandtheircoverage–employingfullprotectionmechanisms–toatleast30%oftheocean(O’Learyetal.,2016).No-takeMPAsareimportantinincreasingthebiodiversity,abundanceandbiomassofmarinelife,includingthreatenedspecies(e.g.Edgaretal.,2014).Theyallowrecoveryofmarinelifefromover-exploitationorotherdestructiveeffects,maintainthestructureofmarineecosystemsandimprovetheirresilience(e.g.Mellin,MacNeil,Cheal,Emslie,&Caley,2016;Speed,Cappo,&Meekan,2018).Thereisalsoaneedtoinstituteahigherleveloftransparencyandaccountabilityintheirdefinition,managementandenforcement.AbouthalfofexistingMPAsareonlynominallyprotected(Laffoleyetal.,2019).Atpresent,UNEPsimplyrecordsMPAsreportedtoit,ratherthanincludinginformationontheirstageofestablishment,levelofprotection,oreffectivenessofmanagement.ReportingneedstobeundertakenagainstagreedmetricsandstandardssothatcountryinventoriesofMPAsareaccountableandtransparentandcanbeindependentlyassessedfortheircompliancewithinternationalagreements,suchasSustainableDevelopmentGoal14,andtheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(CBD)10%targetforoceanprotectionby2020,setoutinTarget11.Inadditiontoarea-basedtargets(Robertsetal.,2018,Agardyetal.,2016),weneedtobemorestrategicwithMPAplacement,design(size,shape)andnetworkcoherence(Reesetal.,2018)advocatessocial-ecologicalcoherence.WealsoneedtoconsiderdynamicoceanpatternsandprocesseswithregardtoclimatechangeandidentifyandmitigatethreatstoMPAperformance.

Therehasbeennoincreaseintheofficial,politicallyagreedambitionforoceanprotectionundertheCBDsince1983whentheNGOcommunityfirstposited10%attheWorldParksCongressinBali.TheofficialCBDoceanprotectiontarget,nowrecognisedtobeinadequatetoachievesufficientprotectionformarinelife(O’Learyetal.,2016),willbereviewedin2020anditneedsboldandradicalreformifprotectionprioritiesaretokeepanypacewithclimate-andhuman-relateddeteriorationandlossesnowbeingseeninmarineecosystemsandspecies.Increasedtargetsarewarrantedpost-2020,namelyanetworkofstronglytofullyprotectedMPAscovering30%oftheoceanby2030.Trulysustainablemeasuresandactionsthenalsoneedtobeappliedtotheremaining70%oftheoceansothatawholeoceanapproachistaken.Beyond2030,considerationshouldalsobegiventoeventuallyratchetingthisupto50%inlinewiththerecent‘NatureNeedsHalf”initiative(Dinersteinetal.,2017;Kopnina,Washington,Gray,&Taylor,2018),althoughitisclear,atleastonland,thatthiswouldhavemajorimplicationsforworldfoodproduction(Mehrabi,Ellis,&Ramankutty,2018).

Thecaseforaction

Buildingonthecurrentviewofprotectedareasthathasdevelopedsincethe19thcentury,thereisnowanimportantopportunitytoincrease,improveanduseoceanobservationinfrastructureanddataflowstohelpintheirestablishmentandmanagement.TheMPAagendashouldbetocreatea‘Noah’sArk’ofprotectedareasformarineorganisms,rampingupecosystemresilienceandradicallyreducingthefootprintofhumanactivities,aswellassafeguardingthediminishingnumberofplacesthathavenotyetbeenreachedbyextractive,impactingactivitiessuchasfishing.Givenexistingglobalthreatsfromclimatechange(Brunoetal.,2018),thecaseforreinforcingandexpandingprotectionisevenmoreurgent.

GovernmentsandresponsibleauthoritiesmustalsorecognisethatratherthanjustannouncingMPAs,therearealreadyagreedstandards(http://www.iucn.org/mpastandards)forhowtheseareas

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shouldbetreatedandmanaged,andsuchstandardsneedtobeappliedbyresponsibleauthorities.Theprotectionagendaneedstojoinupwiththepushonmoreeffectivefisheriesmanagementandtheclimatechangemitigationagenda,intermsofthecrucialroletheoceanplaysintheEarth'scarboncycleandthesequestrationofbluecarbon(Robertsetal.,2017).EffectiveconclusionoftheBBNJtreatywillenableestablishmentofhighseasMPAs,currentlyallbutimpossibletosecureinmostpartsoftheocean.

Questionshavebeenraisedastohowtoimplementaglobalnetworkofmarinereservesandhowtheymightbeenforced.ScientistshaverecentlyusedmodellingapproachestodesignglobalnetworksofMPAsforthehighseastakingintoaccountalready-establishedprotection,ecologicallyandbiologicallysignificantareas(EBSAs)andhumanusesoftheocean(O’Learyetal.,Insubmission).Whilstsuchadesignmaybeviewedasaworkinprogress,itdemonstratesthefeasibilityofreachingthe30%oreven50%targetsforarepresentativenetworkofmarinereserves.EnforcementofhighseasMPAshasbeenviewedaschallengingandpotentiallyexpensive,however,arangeofnewtechnologies,includingsatellitesurveillance(e.g.Rowlands,Brown,Soule,Boluda,&Rogers,inpress),on-boardsurveillanceandelectroniclogbooks,togetherwithimprovedglobalcoordinationinfisheriesmanagement,suchasthroughthePortStateMeasuresAgreement,areprovidingthetoolstorealiseeffectiveimplementationofprotectedareas.

3.4Imposeaprecautionarypauseondeep-seaminingtoallowtimetogainsufficientknowledgeandunderstandingtosupportinformeddecisionsandeffectivemanagement

Therehasbeenarapidincreaseinthenumberofcountriesandcompaniesseekingexplorationaccesstotheoceanfloor.Theareaofcommercialinterestforminingactivityisestimatedatover4millionkm2,largerthanthetotallandmassofthetop20EUcountries(Rogers,2019).Meanwhile,scientificsurveysconductedinprospectiveminingregions(ferromanganese-encrustedseamounts,polymetallicnodulesonabyssalplains,andseafloor,massivesulphidesathydrothermalvents)haveconfirmedhundredsofnewspecies,aswellashighdiversityinbothspeciesandhabitats.Manyoftheseareasareconsideredvulnerablemarineecosystems(VMEs)inthattheyarestructurallycomplexandcontainendemic,rare,long-lived,slow-growingandfragilespecies(e.g.Rogers,2018forseamounts,andhttp://www.fao.org/in-action/vulnerable-marine-ecosystems/criteria/en/).Deep-seaminingwilladdtothestressorsalreadyfacingtheocean,andlikelyleadtocumulativeimpacts,whichwillfurtherundermineoceanhealthandresilience.

Thecaseforaction

Foreachmilliontonnesoforeextracted,deep-seaminingwillresultindisturbancetoanareaordersofmagnitudelargerthanforthesamelevelofmineralproductiononland.Forexample,toextractamilliontonnesofmanganesefromlandrequiresmining0.5km2;forthesamequantityfromtheoceanfloor,miningneedstocover80km2.TheClarion-ClippertonZone(CCZ)inthePacificbetweenMexicoandHawaiiisthesiteof16explorationlicencesforpolymetallicnodules,stretchingacrossanareaofoceannearlythewidthofthecontiguousUnitedStates.Amonetal.(2016)foundthatmorethanhalfofthemegafaunalspeciescollectedintheeasternCCZwerenewtoscience,reiteratinghowlittleisknownaboutthebiodiversityinthisregion,andthatroughlyhalfofobservedmegafaunalspeciesreliedonthepolymetallicnodulesofattachmentsurfaces,underscoringtheirimportancetothisecosystem.Asubsequentstudy(Nineretal.,2018)foundthatdeep-seaminingwillbedestructive,anditwillbeimpossibletoachievenonetlossofbiodiversity.

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Deep-seaminingproposalshavebeenmadeorexistbothinandbeyondnationaljurisdictions(e.g.NewZealand,Namibia,PapuaNewGuinea).Informationontheenvironmentswhereminingmaytakeplaceislackingandasaresult,scientistsareill-equippedtomakeestimatesofthelikelyimpactsfrommining.Internationally,technologieshavenotyetbeendevelopedortested,soitisimpossibletoknowtheimpacts.Aconcertedscientificpushisneededurgentlytodeterminewhatthepotentialrisksarefromtheexploitationofthetargetminerals.Itiscriticalthatscientificknowledge,andassociateduncertainties,beappliedtopreservethebiodiversityandfunctionsofthedeepoceanifandwhenseabedminingproceeds.Thereneedstobeaprecautionarypauseondeep-seaminingtoallowtimetogainsufficientknowledgeandunderstandingofdeep-oceancommunities,ecosystemfunctions,processesandrolesintheglobalEarthSysteminordertosupportinformeddecisionsandeffectivemanagement.Areassuchasactivehydrothermalventsitesshouldalreadybeplacedpermanentlyoff-limitsgiventheirabilitytosupportabundantandoftenendemicbiologicalcommunities.Activeventsoccupyintotalonlyanestimatedglobalareaof50km2(VanDoveretal.,2018),withmorethan60%ofspeciesbeinguniquetoasingleventsite.

3.5Endoverfishinganddestructivepracticesincludingillegal,unreportedandunregulated(IUU)fishing

Inaworldheadingtowards10billionpeople,seafoodiscriticaltoglobalfoodsecurity,asasourceofproteinbutalsoformicronutrientsneededinaquaculture.Catchesfromwildfisheriespeakedin1996ataround130milliontonnesperyearandhavebeendecliningby1milliontonnesperyearsincethen(Pauly&Zeller,2016;Thurstan&Roberts,2014,).Thereisstrongconsensusthat,despiteallefforts,currentfisheriesmanagementgloballyisnoteffectiveenoughtosecuresustainabilityandsufficientlylimitenvironmentalharm.Inrevisingglobalfisherieslandingstoaccountforunreportedcatches,PaulyandZeller(2016)showedcatcheswerenearly50%higherthanpreviouslythought,withevidencethatoverfishinginmanyregionsisstillincreasing.Expertsconcludedthattacklingoverfishingisawinnablechallenge,whichcanconnectcommunitiesreliantonfishandfishingtothewiderproblemofoceandeclineandtheneedforprotection.

Whatisprimarilyneededtosolvethisproblemistoenforceandenhanceexistingregulations,torefineandexpandthetechnologicaladvancestoassistenforcement,andtousetheexistingtechnologytotrackallfishinggearandmakesureitisdisposedofsustainably.Thisissomethingwecansolvenowifthereisthewilltodoso.Alongsidethis,complementarystrategiesareneededaddressingsuchissuesasimprovededucationtopromotesustainablepractice(Gifford&Nilsson,2014),realignedincentives,andimprovedsocialmarketing.

Thecaseforaction

Thereiscurrentlyapincermovementonoceanproductivityfromclimatechangeandoverfishing,whichisreducingfisheriesproductivityandthreateningstockhealth.Thewarmingoftheoceanis,atthesimplestlevel,doingtwothings:reducingoceanmixing,whichreducesnutrienttransfertoshallowerwaters;andreducingoxygencontent,whichmeansfishwillgrowmoreslowlytosmallersizes(Pauly&Cheung,2018a,2018b).Atthesametime,overfishingcontinues:recentFAOfiguresaveragedfortheworlddisclosethatfullyandoverexploitedfisheriesincreasedto93%,andnon-fullyexploitedfisheriesdeclinedto7%(FAO,2018).Oftenoverlookedtoointermsoffishstockreduction,especiallybenthicspecies,istheissueof‘ghostfishing’(Lively&Good,2019).

Considerationshouldthereforebegiventocuttingglobalfishingeffortbyupto50%tobuffertheeffectsofclimatechange.Harmfulfishingsubsidiesshouldalsoberemoved(Sumailaetal.,2010)

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andthefundsredirectedtosupportthecreationofeffectiveMPAsandothermanagementmechanismstosafeguardstocks.Aneconomicanalysisin2018(Salaetal.,2018)concludedthatifsubsidieswereremoved,andadequatelabourandhumanrightswereenforced,mosthighseasfishingwouldbetoouneconomictosurvive.

Thereisalsoaneedtointroducemoratoria/bansforhighlydamagingactivities.Examplesincludedeep-watergillnetsandbottomtrawling,andpoorlymanagedlongliningresultinginhighlevelsofbycatch,suchasturtles,sharksandseabirds.ThepotentialimplicationsoflicencesrecentlygrantedbyNorwayandPakistanforexploratoryfishingonmesopelagicfishstocksneedstobeconsidered.Certificationstandardsalsoneedtobemorestringent.TheMarineStewardshipCouncilhasbecomethesubjectofacampaigntoensureitupholdsandstrengthensitssustainabilitystandards,sohelpingdrivepositivechangeinthefisheriessector.Manyofitscertifiedfisheriescannotbedescribedassustainableornon-damagingtotheenvironmentortobycatchspecies.Thereisarealdangerthatthelabelwilllosecredibilityandpublictrust,riskingaveryimportanttoolforimprovingfisheries.Andthenthereis,ofcourse,theoptioninpartsoftheworldwherefishisanoptionalfoodtyperatherthananessentialone,tosimplyconsumelessandtherebyreducethedemandandthreat.

Alongsidesuchmeasuresisthegrowingneedtobanallbottomtrawlingonseamountsandothersubmarinetopographicalfeaturestoprotectcorals,spongesandtheuniqueecosystemsassociatedwiththesesites.Considerationshouldalsobegiventoendingsomeaquaculture,e.g.unsustainableshrimpfarming,whichistoodamagingforpoorercommunities,intermsoffeedprovision,wateruse,pollution,coastalhabitatdestructionandotherimpacts,tojustifymeetingthedemandforluxuryseafood.

EndingIUUfishingisanimportantissuethatwillalsohelpconnectcommunitiesreliantonfishandfishingtothewiderproblemofoceandeclineandneedforprotection.Therearesufficientregulationstosolvethisproblem,especiallybyharnessingandrefiningthetechnologicaladvancesthathavebeenmadeinmonitoring,surveillanceandenforcement.Thereisnodoubtthatsatelliteremotesensingandotherformsoftechnologyaregettingtothestagewhereillegalfishersshouldhavenowheretohide(Dunnetal.,2018;McCauleyetal.,2016).Thereshouldbepropersanctionsforflagstateswhichcontinuetoignoretheirobligations,withtestcasesneededbeforetheUNCLOSTribunal.Associatedproblemswithghostfishinggearneedstobesolvedusingtechnologytotagandtrackgearonallvessels.

3.6Radicallyreducemarinewaterpollution

Eutrophicationandchemicalandplasticspollutionaremountingcausesforconcern.Plastic-debrispollutionhasbeenrecentlyrecognisedasariskwhosemanagementrequiresaglobal-levelresponse(Lambetal.,2018;Seltenrich,2015;Vince&Hardesty2016)andasubiquitousintheocean(Woodalletal.,2014).Bycontrast,marinenutrientandchemicalpollutionhavebeenacontinuousproblemforthepastcentury,whosedistributionandimpactshaveonlyexpanded,andarecausingecologicalcollapseanddestabilisinglargecoastalregions(Clark,2011;Diaz-Cruz&Barcelo,2015;Kennish,Kennish,&Lutz,1997;Vernberg,Thurberg,Calabrese,&Vernberg,1979).Governanceandotherformsofmanagementofnutrientandchemicalpollutionhavemadesmallgainsoverthepastdecades,butnotenoughtomitigateitsimpact(Hassan,2006).Failureanalysisindicatesthatmorestringentandinnovativepolicyactionsneedtobeimplementedatmultiplelevelsofsocialandeconomichierarchies,withanemphasisonmanagingexplicitpollutionsourcesaspoint-sourcesof

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origin,ratherthanambiguousnon-pointsourcesofpollution(D’Angelo&Wiedenmann,2014;Liuetal.,2018;Selman,Greenhalgh,Diaz,&Sugg,2016;Vilmin,Mongollón,Beusen,&Bouwman,2018,).Toensureeffectivepollutionmitigation,thereisaneedforthefollowingactions.

● Effectivelymanagesewagedischargesinmajorrivercatchmentsandincoastalcommunities.Thisrequiresinnovativetechnologiesthatreduceeutrophicfactors,aswellaschemicalpollutants.Since70%oftheworldpopulationlivesincoastalregions,thiscouldhaveanenormouslocalandglobalimpactinincreasingecologicalresiliencetootherstressors,aswellasincreasingrecoveryofdegradedecosystems.

● Increasethepublicawarenessofnutrientpollutionanditsdegradationtolocalandregionalecosystemsthatarecriticalresourcesfortourism,fisheriesandresidential/commercialpropertyvaluation.Thisawareness,inturn,canbeusedasleveragetodriveeffectivepoliciesforbothmitigationofpollutionimpactsandpreventionofpollution.Reducingnutrientpollutantswouldincreasefisheriesproductivityandreducetheexacerbationthatclimatechangefactorswouldhaveondeadzoneformationandlongevity,harmfulalgalblooms,andcoastalerosion.

● Recogniseandcharacterisemarinechemicalcontaminantsofemergingconcern,includingpersonalcareproductchemicals,pharmaceuticalsandantibiotics,anti-foulantchemicals,andpesticides.Someofthesechemicalsarepersistentintheenvironmentandwillbetransferredthroughthefoodchain.Forexample,somepersonalcareproductchemicalscanbepassedfromhumansewagetofisheries,andthenconsumedbyhumans(Henriquez-Hernandezetal.,2017).Theextentofchemicalcorruptionthroughoutthefoodchainisuncertain,butstudiestodateshowthatitisfarmoreextensivethanexpected.

● Ensurethereversaloftheburdenofproofinapprovaloftheuseofchemicalsinindustrialandhouseholdapplications.Industryshouldbearthecostofcertifyingthattheirproductsarenotcausingunacceptablelevelsofdamagetotheocean.

● Innovatetoreplacesingle-useplasticpackagingwithbiodegradableandnon-chemicalpollutingalternatives.Industryinvestmentintoinnovationisparamountandcanbeleveragedthroughrestrictingtheuseofsingle-useplasticpackaging,butalsoinprovidingfinancialawardsthroughtaxationmechanismsforcorporationsthatinnovateandimplementnon-plastic,environmentallysustainablepackaging.

Thecaseforaction

Pollutionisthepresenceofanthropogeniccontaminantsinthenaturalenvironmentthatcausesanadverseimpact.Thechallengeisnotjustunderstandingspecificimpactsbutalsocumulativeimpactsandmultipleinteractionsamongstressors.Thethreebiggestformsofoceanicandcoastalpollutionaddressedinthissectionare(a)nitrogen-phosphorousfactorscomingfromsewage,residentialandagriculturalactivities;(b)chemicalpollutionthatcomprises,butisnotlimitedto,pesticides,petroleum,pharmaceuticals,personalcareproductsandindustrialdischarges;and(c)plastic-debrispollution.

Nitrogenandphosphoruspollution,alsocallednutrientoreutrophicpollution,hashadaglobalimpactonoceanbodies.Thesenutrientscreatealgalbloomsincontaminatedareaswhere,whenthealgalbloomdies,aprocessofdecayisestablishedthatcanradicallyshiftoceanicalkalinity,induceharmfulalgalblooms,andchangetheecologicalstructureofcoastalandpelagiccommunities(Diaz&Rosenberg,2008).SomeoftheinternationalimpactsincludetheSargassumbloomsthatplaguebeachesthroughouttheentireCaribbeanSeaandGulfofMexico,harmfulalgalbloom

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outbreaks(‘RedandBrownTides’)allovertheworld,andincreasingdeadzoneformationsthatrangefromBarbadostoChina(Diaz&Rosenberg,2008;Heisleretal.,2008;Paerl&Scott,2010).Theeconomicimpactsoftheseformsofpollutionarebothinsidiousandextensive,includingshiftingthefeedinggroundsofimportantcommercialfisheries,localisedecologicalextinctionsthatimpactfisheries,degradingcoastlinesincurringalossofecologicalservicesthatimpactresidentialcommunities,andadecreaseinlocaleconomicstabilityandresilienceasaresultofdecliningcoastaltourism(Moberg&Folke,1999;Elliff&Kikuchi,2017;Nordlundetal.,2018;Sanseverino,Conduto,Pozzoli,Dobricic,&Lettieri,2016).Forensicdataareneededtoidentifyboththesourceofthenutrientpollutionplumes,aswellascharacterisationofthegeographicalsizeandecologicalimpact.Technologyandeffectivepoliciesareneededtomitigatethesedischarges.Passinglegislationtorestrictcesspools,septicsystems,suck-wells,andotherformsofuntreatedsewage,andimplementingadvancedwaste-watertreatmentsystems(e.g.membrane/bioreactorsystems)canbeveryeffectiveinreducingdischargelevels.Innovationsinlandscapeengineeringtechnologiesforagriculturalandresidentialsettings,suchasfilter/bioreactorretentionaswellasbetterregulatedfertiliserapplicationsandapplicationtechnologies,canreducefertiliserrunoff(Klein,2017).

Thereleaseofpersistentorpseudo-persistentorganicpollutantsintotheoceanishavinganegativeimpactonmarinespecies.Chemicalpollutants,especiallythoserecognisedasendocrinedisruptorsandteratogens,aredirectlyimpactingthereproductiveviabilityofspeciesinmarineecosystems(Richmondetal.,2017;Windsor,Ormerod,&Tyler,2018).Chemicalsthatcancausethesereproductiveanddevelopmentaldisordersrangefrompolyaromatichydrocarbonsincrudeoilandotherpetroleumproducts,antifoulants,pesticides,pharmaceuticals,andpersonalcareproductchemicals.Onemanifestationofthisimpactistheriseof‘zombies’–marinepopulationswithareducedfecundityorreducedoffspringsurvivalthatundergolocalisedextinctionoveradecadalorgenerationalperiodoftime(Côté,Darling,&Brown,2016).Crypticchemicalsinpersonalcareproductsarehavingsignificantimplicationsforbothhumanandoceanhealth(Dinardo&Downs,2018).Arecentexampleisthefindingthatoxybenzone,acommoningredientinsunscreensandotherpersonalcareproducts,negativelyimpactscoralhealthandreproduction(Downsetal.,2016).Theburdenofproofshouldbeonindustrytoshowthattheuseofthesechemicalsissafeforbothpublicandecologicalhealthviaagovernment-regulatedprocessthathastransparency,inclusionofengagedstakeholdersthatrepresentpublicwelfare,andabsenceofacorruptiveconflictofinterest(EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2018).Itmustbeuptomanufacturerstoprovethatchemicalsarebenignorhaveminimalimpactinordertojustifytheiruse.The‘polluter-pays-principle’shouldbeenforcedsothatallland-basedactorsthathaveoceanimpactsaremaderesponsiblefortheiractionsandtheresultingfinancialcosts.Thiswillimpactthebadactors,whetherforplasticsoranyotherpollutingproduct.Furthermore,accountabilityandrestrictionscanbeaneffectivedriverfortechnologicalinnovationsforthesearchanddevelopmentofsaferproducts.Finally,thereisanurgentneedtoincreasethescientificandforensicevidenceneededtodriverobustpolicy,whichthenrequirestobeaccuratelymonitoredforeffectiveness.

Plasticpollutionhascaughttheglobalpublic’sattention,bothinitslargeformasoceanicgarbagepatchesanditsbreakdownproductsasingestiblemicroplastics(e.g.Barboza,Cózar,etal.,2019;Barboza,Frias,etal.,2019).Mostofthismarineplasticdebriscomesfromabout10majorrivercatchmentsystems(Schmidt,Krauth,&Wagner,2017).Microplasticbeadsandfibrescanalsocomefrompersonalcareproductsandlaundryprocessing,transportedthroughmunicipalsewagesystemsandintomarineenvironments(Law&Thompson,2014;Suran,2018).Plasticmarinedebriscanbeingestedbymanyorganisms,rangingfromwhalesandtoppredatorstocoralsandzooplankton,causingmorbiditythroughgastricorintestinalblockage(Coleetal.,2013;Hall,Berry,Rintoul,&Hoogenboom,2015;Thieletal.,2018).Plasticdebris,especiallyduringthe‘weathering’and

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degradationprocess,canleachalargenumberofchemicalsincludingendocrinedisruptorssuchasnonylphenols,bisphenols,phthalates,andbenzophenonesandresultinsignificantpathologiesandmorbidity(Asimakopoulos,Elangovan,&Kannan,2016;Hermabessiereetal.,2017;Luetal.,2016).Micro-andnano-particlesofplasticcancontaminateshellfishandcouldbeahazardforhumanconsumption(Rochmanetal.,2015).Becauseoftheirubiquityinthemarineenvironment,plasticsposeanalarminghazardtoincurringreproductivefailureinorganismsatalllevelsoftheecologicalandcommunitystructure,andtherebycausingadirectassaultonpopulationmortality.Reductionofmarineplasticdebris,especiallysingle-useplasticpackaging,isparamountinordertoreduceastressorthathasthecapacityforlocalisedandoceanic-wideextinctions.

3.7Establishafinancingmechanismforoceanmanagementandprotection

Theabovesixactionsneedtobecomplementedbyanapproachtooceanfinancethatisconsistentwiththediversity,scaleandurgencyofthechallenge.Adequateandcomprehensivefundingmechanismsneedtobeputinplacerapidlytodelivertheactionsproposed,withenoughhumancapacitytoeffectivelypreservemarinebiodiversity.

Thisfinanceapproachshouldalignitselfwithbroadersustainablefinanceefforts,suchasclimatefinanceformitigation,adaptationandresilience.Appropriateaccountingforbluenaturalcapital,inlinewithconceptsofinclusivewealth,providesavaluationframeworkthathelpstosetmoreappropriateeconomicincentivestosupportoceanrecovery.Marineactivitiesthathavenegativeimpactsneedtobetaxedsufficientlytofullyinternalisetheexternalities-thecosttotheglobalcommons.Suchtaxeswillincentiviseatransitiontolower-impactactivitiesandsoencouragebetterbehaviour,andthefundsraisedcanbespentonfinancingtheactionsproposed.Oceanindustries,likeallothersectors,needtomoverapidlytowardsinvestmentsininnovationtoreducepollution,zerowaste,carbonandimpactsonbiodiversity.Financialtoolscanhelptospeedupthistransition.

Inadditiontoaddressingoceanstressorsandtoallowforoceanrecoverythroughpublicandprivatesectorinvestmentsthatencourageprotectionofmarineecosystems,innovativeoceanfinanceneedstobeputinplacetocreateanappropriateoceanfundingarchitecture.Thiscouldinclude:

• globalfundsandinsurancestructuresforkeymarineassetssuchascoralreefs,seamounts,thehighseasandthedeepsea;

• public-privatepartnershipsforaglobaloceandatainfrastructure;

• debtfornatureswapsandotherfinancialincentivesforMPAmanagement;

• anOceanSustainabilityBank;and

• othercorecomponentsofoceanaction(Thiele&Gerber,2017).

Governments,theprivatesectorandmultilateralbankshaveakeyroletoplayincatalysingthistransitiontosustainable,nature-basedmarinerandcoastalinfrastructure.Thatway,thebroadersocietalresponse,includingthevoicesofthemostaffectedpeopleandofprogressivebusinesses,willbepartofdevelopingacommonlanguagearoundoceanaction.Thefinancialsector,banksandinsuranceandassetmanagers,aswellastheprivatesector,mustengagewithsuchapolicytohelpensuredeliveryofeffectiveresponsesandnewtoolstoaddressgrowingoceanrisk.

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3.8Scale-upscience/datagatheringandsharing

Alltheexpertshighlightedasecondcriticalcross-cuttingprioritytothesixactionssetoutabove.Thiswastheneedtosignificantlyscale-upscientificresearcheffortsontheocean.Thereisstillmuchtobeunderstoodaboutallaspectsoftheocean,itsecosystemsandspecies,andthereisaneedforamuchgreaterexpansionoflong-term,in-depthstudiesacrossavarietyofareastogetmoreclarityontheheterogeneityoftheoceanacrossgeographyandtime.Togethertheseeffortswillhelpsciencebettercontributetofutureoceanpolicyneeds.Solidsciencemeansbetterpolicyandallowsustounderstandandmeasuretheeffectivenessofthatimplementedpolicyandmakeappropriatecoursecorrections.Prioritieshereinclude:

• extendingglobaloceanexploration,mapping,andobservation,withaparticularfocusonmorebiologicaldatagathering;

• ensuringadequatefundingforlong-termtime-seriesobservations(e.g.thelong-runningContinuousPlanktonSurvey,whichrecentlyhasseenheavycuts);

• expandingtheArgobuoynetworktoshelfanddeeperwaters;and

• usingtechnologytojoinupdatagatheringmorecoherentlyandsystematically.

InternationalinitiativessuchastheUNDecadeofOceanScienceforSustainableDevelopmentandacomprehensiveHighSeasTreatyprovidetimelyopportunitiestobothsignificantlyupscalemarinescienceandbuildthehumancapacityofmanystatestoundertakeresearchandgainscientificinputintopolicydecisions,whethertheyarerelatedtodomesticwatersorareasbeyondnationaljurisdiction.Therefore,thereshouldbeincreasedefforttoprovidetrainingandcareeropportunities,particularlyforleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs),sothattheirparticipationinthesustainableoceaneconomyandgovernancecanberealised.Sucheffortsneedtobesustainableinthemselves,soconsiderationofresearchinfrastructurewhetheratstatelevelortransnationalinnature(e.g.globallyavailableresearchplatformssuchasshipsormonitoringnetworks)needstoformpartofaglobalstrategytoincreaseinternationalparticipationinoceangovernance.EngagingpublicandprivatesupportfortheOceanDecade,theHighSeasTreaty,andotherinitiatives,willbevital.

Afinalareawhereinternationalcooperationbetweenscientists,governmentsandindustryiscriticalisthatofdatatransparencyandaccessibility.Despitearequirementbymanyfundingagenciestomakescientificdatapubliclyavailable,muchofitisstillinaccessiblebecauseithaseithernotbeendepositedinappropriatedatabasesorsuchdatabaseshavealimitedavailabilitytoabroadrangeofusersincludingscientists,policy-makers,industryandthepublic.Likewise,governmentdepartmentsandindustrysituponsignificantrepositoriesofdatathatareunavailable.Itislikelytobethecasethatthisleadstosurveyandothertypesofworkbeingrepeated,wastingpreciousresourcesforresearchandotherocean-relatedmanagementactivities.Oceandatagatewaysoperatingwithgloballyagreedstandardsareneededtoprovideanecosystemwheredataapplicationscanbedevelopedthroughprivateandpublicinitiativestoallowaccesstoappropriatedatabyspecificusergroupsfromscience,government,industryandthepublic,togetherwithsupportwhereneededforthosemanagingtheindividualdatabases.Datatransparencyisanissuethatisespeciallyproblematicwithingovernment,intergovernmentalagencies(e.g.RFMOs)andindustryandwhichneedsaddressingwithinitself.Inawell-managedocean,theonlydatathatshouldberegardedasconfidentialarethoserelatingtonationalsecurityorwhichareofimmediatecommercialsensitivitywhereaccesstoresourcescannotbecontrolled.Inawell-managed,limited-accessfishery,for

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example,itisdifficulttojustifygroundsforconfidentialityonwhereavesselgoesandwhatitcatches.

4.Conclusions

Addressingtheoceancrisisisurgentandcentraltothelivesandlivelihoodsofhundredsofmillionsofdirectlydependentpeople.Pastandcurrentactivitiesaredamagingtheplanet’smainlifesupportsystemforfuturegenerations.Wearewitnessinganincreaseinoceanheat,disturbance,acidification,bio-invasionsandnutrients,andreducingoxygen.

Theoceanprovidesawiderangeofbenefitstohumansociety,rangingfromthespiritualtolivingandmineralresources,weatherandrainfalland,fundamentaltooursurvival,themainreservoirsofheat,carbondioxide,oxygenandwater.Givenitsimportance,weneedtoradicallyrethinkhowwevaluethesebenefitsandtheoceanonwhichtheyrely.Duetopresentmethodsofexternalisingcosts,muchoceanactivityisconductedunderaprincipleofgettingsomeoneelse,orsocietygenerally,topayforanydamage.Inthefuture,suchcostsneedtobebasedonensuringthatoceanfunctionsaremaintainedforfuturegenerationsandthatitswealthisexploitedsustainablyforthebenefitofallhumanity.Theoceanischangingrapidlyasaresultofglobalwarming,naturalvariabilityandhumanimpacts;thisvariabilityneedstobetakenaccountofinanyfuturecostingmechanism.

Thispaperidentifieseightpriorityissuesthatneedtobeaddressedtohelpavertapotentialecologicaldisasterintheglobalocean.Ofalltheissues,thehighestpriorityistorigorouslyaddressglobalwarmingandlimitsurfacetemperatureriseto1.5°Cby2100,aswarmingisthepre-eminentfactordrivingchangeintheocean.TheotherissuesareestablishingarobustandcomprehensiveHighSeasTreaty;enforcingexistingstandardsforMPAsandexpandingtheircoverage,especiallyintermsofhighlevelsofprotection;imposingaprecautionarypauseondeep-seamining;endingoverfishinganddestructivefishingpractices;radicallyreducingpollution;puttinginplaceafinancingmechanismforoceanmanagementandprotection;andlastlyscaling-upscience/datagatheringandfacilitatingdatasharing.Implementingthiscross-cuttingpackageofmeasureswillbuildresiliencetoclimatechange,helpsustainfisheriesproductivity,particularlyforlow-incomecountriesdependentonfisheries,protectcoasts(e.g.viasoft-engineering/habitat-basedapproaches),promotemitigation(e.g.carbonstorage)andenableimprovedadaptationtorapidglobalchange.

Oncedetrimentalornegativechangeshaveoccurred,theymaylockinplaceandmaynotbereversible,especiallyatgrossecologicalandoceanprocessscales.Eachchangemayrepresentalosstohumanityofresources,ecosystemfunction,oxygenproductionandspecies.Thus,wemaythinkwecansimplystopnegativeactions,assumingthatpreviousconditionsthatweviewasmorebenign/naturalorbeneficialwillreturn,wheninrealitythelongerwepursuethosedamagingactions,themoreweclosethepathtorecoveryandbetteroceanhealth,aswellasgreaterbenefitsforhumanityinthefuture.

Timeisnotnowonoursideifwearetotakeaction.Itisevidentwithinjustthefirstfewmonthsof2019thatworryingtrendsarebeingreportedbymultiplescientificresearchgroupsasaresultofclimatechangeeffectstakingholdintheocean,justasatmosphericcarbondioxidelevelsareexpectedtojumpstillfurtherduetoclimatefeedback(MetOffice,2019).Thesechangesincludethefactthat:oceanwarmingisaccelerating,heatingup40%fasteronaveragethanaUnitedNationspanelestimatedfiveyearsago(Cheng,Abraham,Hausfather,&Trenberth,2019);upper-ocean

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warming,aconsequenceofanthropogenicglobalwarming,ischangingtheglobalwaveclimate,makingwavesstronger(Reguero,Losada,&Méndez,2019);Greenland’siceismeltingfasterthanscientistspreviouslythought,withmostofthisicelossunexpectedlycomingfromtheland-fasticesheetitself,notGreenland’sglaciers(Bevisetal.,2019);theBarentsSeaissaidtobeatatippingpoint,changingfromanArcticclimatetoanAtlanticclimateasthewatergetswarmer(Lind,Ingvaldsen,&Furevik,2018);iceintheAntarcticismeltingatarecord-breakingrateandthesubsequentsea-levelrisecouldhavecatastrophicconsequencesforcitiesaroundtheworld(Rintouletal.,2018;Witze,2018);andkrill,thekeystonespeciesofAntarcticwaters,hasmovedfourdegreesoflatitude,trackingsouthtowheremorefavourableconditionsarefound(Atkinsonetal.,2019).

Thechallengesmayseeminsurmountable,butifweactnowwithambitionandiftheeightissuesoutlinedaboveareaddressedtogether,andenforced,thenevenwithourcurrentstateofknowledgeoftheocean,amorepositiveandsustainablefuturefortheoceanispossible.Actingnow,withurgencyandwithamassiveincreaseinthelevelofourambition,hastobetheno-regretspolicy,onethatwillprotectusandfuturegenerationsfromshort-termismandourignoranceofwhyahealthyoceanshould–anddoes–mattertohumankind.

5.Acknowledgements

TheauthorsaregratefultoIPSOandthewiderscientificandexpertcommunityfortheircontributionstothedevelopmentofthispaperandtofunderTheIslamicDevelopmentBank.

Theauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingpeoplefortheirvariedsupport,includingorganisingtheworkshopsandotherprocessesleadingtopublication:BrittneyFrances,GailGallie,LouisaHooper,SophieHulme,LydiaMogridgeEast,CharlotteSmithandMirellavonLindenfels.

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