eia’s global natural gas outlook · 2002 and 2025, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent the...

EIA’sGlobal Natural Gas Outlook

Phyllis D. MartinSenior Energy Analyst

Energy Information Administration

2006 Fertilizer Outlook& Technology Conference

November 2, 2005Tampa, Florida

[email protected]

202-586-9592

Scope of Presentation

Global Outlook

Domestic Short-term Outlook

Domestic Long-term Outlook

Questions

Global Outlook

What is LNG ?

Liquefied natural gas or LNG is natural gas that hasbeen liquefied by reducing its temperature to minus260 degrees Fahrenheit.

It is an odorless, colorless liquid

Its volume is reduced to around one six-hundredth of itsvolume as a gas

It is stored and transported in specifically designedrailcars, trucks or seagoing vessels at atmosphericpressure

Simplified View of Steps in LNG Process

+30

729

300

356532

147

231

187

237

226325

131

146

365

128

15163

35

18

35

388

56

41

7321

27

22

205

106

100

Major LNG Trade Movements, 2002(billion cubic feet)

USA

Canada

Mexico

S. & Cent. America

Europe & Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

18117

(Line thickness indicates volume)

LNG imports into Asia/Pacific

LNG imports into Europe & Eurasia

LNG imports into North & South America

Source: Energy Information Administration,(May 2003). : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Energy

Agency, (with 2002 data)

Imports to the United States and Imports to Japan and Mexico from the United States:All other countriesNatural Gas Monthly

Natural Gas Information 2003

18

16

Note: The map includes flows greater than 5 Bcf for imports into the United States and flows greate r than 15 Bcf for imports into all otherCountries.

World LNG Trade, 2002

International Energy Outlook 2005indicates that over the next two decades…

Worldwide energy consumption will grow by 57 percent between2002 and 2025, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent

The strongest growth is expected to be in the emergingeconomies, particularly in Asia.

World oil demand will grow from 78 to 119 million barrels per day,with the United States and emerging Asia, including China andIndia, accounting for 64 percent of the growth.

Natural gas will be the fastest growing energy source worldwide,at a average growth rate of 2.3 percent.

Although the slowest growing energy source, nuclear power willincrease, particularly in emerging Asia, where its use will triple.

International Energy Outlook 2005Country Groups

The emerging economies include developing Asia (includingChina, India, and South Korea, but excluding Japan, Australia, andNew Zealand), Middle East (including Turkey), Africa, and Centraland South America (including Brazil, but excluding Mexico).

The transitional economies include eastern Europe and the formerSoviet Union.

The mature market economies are the industrialized countries.

World and Regional GDP, 2002,and GDP Growth Rates, 2002-2025

3,904

1,431

1,434

2,388

3,460

9,416

11,997

13,196

47,227

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Middle East

Africa

Central & South America

EE/FSU

Mature Market Asia

Western Europe

North America

Emerging Asia

World

(billion 2000 dollars) (annual average percent)

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2005

World Natural Gas Consumptionby End-Use Sector, 2002 - 2025

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric PowerSource: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2005

Tri

llio

nC

ub

icF

eet

128142

156

111

92

Increases in World Natural Gas Consumptionby Region and Country Group, 2002-2025

0 5 10 15 20

Mature Market Asia

Africa

Central and South America

Western Europe

Middle East

North America

Emerging Asia

EE/FSU

Trillion Cubic Feet


World Natural Gas Reserves by Region,as of January 1, 2005

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Mature Market Asia

Western Europe

Central & South America

North America

Emerging Asia

Africa

EE/FSU

Middle East

Trillion Cubic FeetSource: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47,12/20/2004, pp.22-23.

World Total =6,040 Trillion Cubic Feet

World Natural Gas Reserves (as of January 1, 2005)and Cumulative Consumption by Region, 2002-2025

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Mature Market

Western Europe

Central & South

North America

Emerging Asia

Africa

EE/FSU

Middle East

Trillion Cubic FeetSources: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Oil & Gas Journal,Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004), pp. 22-23., and EIA, International Energy Outlook 2005

World Total Gas Reserves =6,040 Trillion Cubic Feet

World Total Cum. Consumption,2002-2025 =

2,954 Trillion Cubic Feet

Gas ReservesCumulative Gas Consumption, 2002-2025

Asia

World LNG Liquefaction Capacity,September 2005 (billion cubic feet per year)

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

Pacific Basin Middle East Atlantic Basin

Existing Under Construction Proposed

Source: Energy Information Administration

World Natural Gas Consumption in MatureMarket Economies by Source, 2002-2025

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025

Trill

ion

Cub

icFe

et

Emerging Economies Imports

EE/FSU Imports

Domestic Production


63 6659

5346

Domestic Short-term Outlook

Several Factorsare Driving Prices Higher

International factors such as low spare crude oilcapacity and political tensions contribute touncertainty and low supply growth for crude oil.

Recent hurricanes and associated disruptionsexacerbate already tight markets in oil, petroleumproducts, and natural gas.

NOAA predicts colder weather nationally for the2005/06 winter – 3.2% colder than last winter and0.4% colder than the 30-year average.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Shut InSignificant Gulf Natural Gas Production

0

2

4

6

8

10

8/22 9/1 9/11 9/21 10/1

Projections

5.2

3.7

2.1

11.9612.76

13.72

Oct Nov Dec0

4

8

12

16

20Shut In Capacity

Henry Hub Price

Bcf/d $/Mcf

Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Per

cen

tCh

ang

e

0102030405060708090

Bil

lion

Cu

bic

Fee

tp

erD

ay

Percent Change (Left Axis) Total (Right Axis)

History Proj.

U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2004-2005 2005-2006 (NOAA) Colder Warmer

A Slightly Colder Winter is Projectedfor the Lower - 48 States

Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub):Baseline, Warmer, Colder Cases

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07

Forecast

Oct 2005 – Mar 2006 Average10% Colder = $13.20/mcfBase Case = $11.40/mcf10% Warmer = $10.00/mcf 10% Colder

Actual / Base Case

10% Warmer

Dollars perThousandCubic Feet

(mcf)

Domestic Long-term Outlook

World Oil Prices in Five Cases,1990-2025 (2003 dollars per barrel)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

High A price $39.34

Reference $30.31October futures $35.00

High B price $48.00

Low price $20.99

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005

History Projections

Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,1970 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025

15%

20%Net imports

Consumption

Production

Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025(trillion cubic feet)

2.8

0.4

2.6 3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas

20032025

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005-High B Oil Price Case

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,1990-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History

Industrial*

Electric Generators Residential

Commercial

Transportation**

Projections


* Includes lease and plant fuel** Includes pipeline fuel

Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resourcesas of January 1, 2003 (trillion cubic feet)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Undiscovered nonassociated

Inferred nonassociated

Unconventional

Other unproved

Proved

Offshore

Coalbed methane

Shale gasTight gas

AlaskaLower 48 associated-dissolved

Onshore

OffshoreOnshore

261

487

237

165

187

Total: 1,337 trillion cubic feet


Atlantic*33 trillion cubic feet

Gulf of Mexico*20 trillion cubic feet

North Aleutian Basin*6 trillion cubic feet

ANWR*9 trillion cubic feet

Pacific*18 trillion cubic feet

Technically RecoverableRestricted Access U.S. Natural Gas Resources

Canada

United States

Mexico

Alaska

Non-restricted: 1337 trillion cubic feetRestricted: 113 trillion cubic feet

Total: 1450 trillion cubic feet

*MMS mean estimates for the offshore OCS under Moratoria

Rocky Mountains**22 trillion cubic feet

Great Lakes State Offshore**3 trillion cubic feet

**Officially off limits due to Federal statutes or administrative decrees

Pacific State Offshore**2 trillion cubic feet

(as of January 1, 2003)

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025(trillion cubic feet)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History Projections

Associated/Dissolved

Non-associated Offshore

NonassociatedOnshore Conventional

Onshore Unconventional

Alaska


Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025(trillion cubic feet)

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History Projections

Canada

Liquefied Natural Gas

Mexico


Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals

Elba Island, Georgia4.1 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 675 MMcf per dayBaseload: 460 MMcf per day

Cove Point, Maryland7.8 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 1 Bcf per dayBaseload: 750 MMcf per day

Everett, Massachusetts3.5 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 885 MMcf per dayBaseload: 710 MMcf per day

Lake Charles, Louisiana6.3 Bcf Storage CapacityRegasification Capacity:Peak: 1.2 Bcf per dayBaseload: 630 MMcf per day


Gulf of Mexico, OffshoreGulf Gateway Energy Bridge

Regasification Capacity:Peak: 500 MMcf per dayBaseload: 500 MMcf per day

28

CONSTRUCTEDA. Everett, MA : 1.035 Bcfd (Tractebel - DOMAC)B. Cove Point, MD : 1.0 Bcfd (Dominion - Cove Point LNG)C. Elba Island, GA : 0.68 Bcfd (El Paso - Southern LNG)D. Lake Charles, LA : 1.0 Bcfd (Southern Union - Trunkline LNG)E. Gulf of Mexico: 0.5 Bcfd, (Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge - Excelerate Energy)APPROVED BY FERC1. Lake Charles, LA: 1.1 Bcfd (Southern Union - Trunkline LNG)2. Hackberry, LA : 1.5 Bcfd, (Sempra Energy)3. Bahamas : 0.84 Bcfd, (AES Ocean Express)*4. Bahamas : 0.83 Bcfd, (Calypso Tractebel)*5. Freeport, TX : 1.5 Bcfd, (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev.)6. Sabine, LA : 2.6 Bcfd (Cheniere LNG)7. Elba Island, GA: 0.54 Bcfd (El Paso - Southern LNG)8. Corpus Christi, TX: 2.6 Bcfd, (Cheniere LNG)9. Corpus Christi, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Vista Del Sol - ExxonMobil)10. Fall River, MA : 0.8 Bcfd, (Weaver's Cove Energy/Hess LNG)11. Sabine, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Golden Pass - ExxonMobil)12. Corpus Christi, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (Ingleside Energy - Occidental Energy Ventures)APPROVED BY MARAD/COAST GUARD13. Port Pelican: 1.6 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)14. Louisiana Offshore : 1.0 Bcfd (Gulf Landing - Shell)CANADIAN APPROVED TERMINALS15. St. John, NB : 1.0 Bcfd, (Canaport - Irving Oil)16. Point Tupper, NS 1.0 Bcf/d (Bear Head LNG - Anadarko)MEXICAN APPROVED TERMINALS17. Altamira, Tamulipas : 0.7 Bcfd, (Shell/Total/Mitsui)18. Baja California, MX : 1.0 Bcfd, (Sempra)19. Baja California - Offshore : 1.4 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)PROPOSED TO FERC20. Long Beach, CA : 0.7 Bcfd, (Mitsubishi/ConocoPhillips - Sound Energy Solutions)21. Logan Township, NJ : 1.2 Bcfd (Crown Landing LNG - BP)22. Bahamas : 0.5 Bcfd, (Seafarer - El Paso/FPL )23. Port Arthur, TX: 1.5 Bcfd (Sempra)24. Cove Point, MD : 0.8 Bcfd (Dominion)25. LI Sound, NY: 1.0 Bcfd (Broadwater Energy - TransCanada/Shell)26. Pascagoula, MS: 1.0 Bcfd (Gulf LNG Energy LLC)27. Bradwood, OR: 1.0 Bcfd (Northern Star LNG - Northern Star Natural Gas LLC)28. Pascagoula, MS: 1.3 Bcfd (Casotte Landing - ChevronTexaco)29. Cameron, LA: 3.3 Bcfd (Creole Trail LNG - Cheniere LNG)30. Port Lavaca, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (Calhoun LNG - Gulf Coast LNG Partners)31. Freeport, TX: 2.5 Bcfd (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev. - Expansion)32. Sabine, LA: 1.4 Bcfd (Cheniere LNG - Expansion)PROPOSED TO MARAD/COAST GUARD33. California Offshore: 1.5 Bcfd (Cabrillo Port - BHP Billiton)34. So. California Offshore : 0.5 Bcfd, (Crystal Energy)35. Louisiana Offshore : 1.0 Bcfd (Main Pass McMoRan Exp.)36. Gulf of Mexico: 1.0 Bcfd (Compass Port - ConocoPhillips)37. Gulf of Mexico: 2.8 Bcfd (Pearl Crossing - ExxonMobil)38. Gulf of Mexico: 1.5 Bcfd (Beacon Port Clean Energy Terminal - ConocoPhillips)39. Offshore Boston, MA: 0.4 Bcfd (Neptune LNG - Tractebel)40. Offshore Boston, MA: 0.8 Bcfd (Northeast Gateway - Excelerate Energy)

Existing and ProposedNorth American LNG

Terminals

As of October 7, 2005

FERC

Office of Energy Projects

A

3 422

3320

35

34

14

B

1

24

36

US JurisdictionFERCUS Coast Guard

* US pipeline approved; LNG terminal pending in Bahamas

26

102521

7C

2D37

3813

5,31

9

6,32

3927

E

15

17

16

1819

40

81230

112329

POTENTIAL U.S. SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS41. Coos Bay, OR: 0.13 Bcfd, (Energy Projects Development)42. California - Offshore: 0.75 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)43. Pleasant Point, ME : 0.5 Bcfd (Quoddy Bay, LLC)44. St. Helens, OR: 0.7 Bcfd (Port Westward LNG LLC)45. Galveston, TX: 1.2 Bcfd (Pelican Island - BP)46. Philadelphia, PA: 0.6 Bcfd (Freedom Energy Center - PGW)47. Astoria, OR: 1.0 Bcfd (Skipanon LNG - Calpine)48. Robbinston, ME: 0.5 Bcfd (Downeast LNG - Kestrel Energy/Dean Girdis)49. Boston, MA: 0.8 Bcfd (AES Battery Rock LLC - AES Corp.)50. Calais, ME: ? Bcfd (BP Consulting LLC)POTENTIAL CANADIAN SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS51. Quebec City, QC : 0.5 Bcfd (Project Rabaska - Enbridge/Gaz Met/Gaz de France)52. Rivière-du- Loup, QC: 0.5 Bcfd (Cacouna Energy - TransCanada/PetroCanada)53. Kitimat, BC: 0.61 Bcfd (Galveston LNG)54. Prince Rupert, BC: 0.30 Bcfd (WestPac Terminals)55. Goldboro, NS 1.0 Bcfd (Keltic Petrochemicals)POTENTIAL MEXICAN SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS56. Lázaro Cárdenas, MX : 0.5 Bcfd (Tractebel/Repsol)57. Puerto Libertad, MX: 1.3 Bcfd (Sonora Pacific LNG)58. Offshore Gulf, MX: 1.0 Bcfd (Dorado - Tidelands)59. Manzanillo, MX: 0.5 Bcfd60. Topolobampo, MX: 0.5 Bcfd

Potential North American LNG Terminals

As of October 7, 2005

FERC

Office of Energy Projects

42

41

US JurisdictionFERCUS Coast Guard

42

46

45

4447

58

5152

5453

55

56

57

59

60

4943

4850

Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)

Mid

FL

South

New

South

East

AZ/NM

Mountain

WA/OR

CA

Mexico into US

2010201520202025

(2007)

(2006)(2012)

(2012)

(20xx) – Start year of first new terminalFlorida

South Atlantic

Middle Atlantic

New England

East South CentralWest South Central

Central

Atlantic

Atlantic

West

England

CentralSouth

WestNorth

Central

eCntralNorthEast

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0

163

261215

0

399

807

661

535585

620606

183 183183183


Natural gas prices by end-use sector,1970-2025 (2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

History Projections

CNG vehicles $10.53Residential $9.93Commercial $8.73

Industrial $6.15Electricity $6.15Wellhead $5.32(nominal $9.07)

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005 – High B case

Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices,1970-2025 (2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

History Projections

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2005

Reference case $4.79Rapid technology $4.35

Slow technology $5.18

Restricted Supply $6.29

Phyllis D. Martin

Energy Information Administration

[email protected]

202-586-9592

International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005

Annual Energy Outlook 2005, December, 2004Short-term Energy Outlook, October, 2004

Special Reports:The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 2003

“Qatar LNG: Status and Development,” International Energy Outlook 2004

“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005

The Impact of High Energy Prices on Energy-intensive Industries:

A Case Study of the U.S. Chemicals Industry, August, 2004

www.eia.doe.gov

eia’s global natural gas outlook · 2002 and 2025, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent the...

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