eia: short-term energy outlook june 2011

8/6/2019 EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2011

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Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy OutlookJune 20111

IndependentStatistics&Analysis

U.S. Energy Information

Administration June2011

ShortTermEnergyOutlookJune7,2011Release

Highlights

WorldbenchmarkcrudeoilpricesreachedtheirhighestlevelofthisyearattheendofApril,fellbyabout10percentbyMay9andhavechangedverylittle

sincethen. EIAstillexpectsoilmarketstotightenthrough2012givenprojected

worldoildemandgrowthandslowinggrowthinsupplyfromcountriesthat

arenotmembersoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries

(OPEC). TheprojectedU.S.refinercrudeoilaverageacquisitioncostrisesfrom

$104perbarrelin2011to$108perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameaslast

monthsOutlook.

BasedontheoutlookfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)forthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA

estimatesmedian(mean)outcomesfortotalshutinproductionintheFederal

GulfofMexico(GOM)duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(Junethrough

November)ofabout19(27)millionbarrelsofcrudeoiland53(78)billioncubic

feet(Bcf)ofnaturalgas(see2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProductionOutagesintheGulfofMexico). Actualshutinsarelikelytodiffersignificantly

fromthisestimatedependingonthenumber,track,andstrengthofhurricanes

astheseasonprogresses.

Regulargraderetailgasolinepriceaveragedabout$3.96pergallonduringthefirsthalfofMayasunexpectedrefineryoutagesanddisruptionsindistribution

causedbythefloodingoftheMississippiRiveranditstributariestemporarily

counterbalancedtheimpactoflowercrudeoilprices. Inrecentweeks,

gasolinepriceshavebeenfalling,however,astherefinerysituationhasbegun

torecover. EIAexpectstheMayaveragepriceof$3.91pergallonwillbethepeakmonthlyaveragepricethisdrivingseason. Still,EIAforecaststhatthe

regulargrademotorgasolineretailpricewillaverage$3.75pergallonduring

thissummersdrivingseason(fromApril1throughSeptember30),upfrom

$2.76pergallonlastsummer,but6centspergallonlowerthanlastmonths

Outlook.
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NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedMay2011at2.2trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),about10percent,or245billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endofMay

level. EIAexpectsthatworkinggasinventorieswillbuildstronglyduringthe

summerandapproachrecordhighlevelsinthesecondhalfof2011. The

projectedHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.25permillionBritish

thermalunits(MMBtu)in2011,$0.13perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIAexpectsthenaturalgasmarkettobegintighteningin2012,withtheHenry

Hubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.58perMMBtu.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels

CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.EIAprojectsthattotalworldoilconsumption

willgrowby1.7millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2011,whichisabout0.3million

bbl/dhigherthanlastmonthsOutlook,primarilybecauseofhigherforecastsof

consumptionforelectricitygenerationinChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEast.

Projectedworldconsumptionincreasesby1.6millionbbl/din2012,unchangedfrom

lastmonthsOutlook. ProjectedsupplyfromnonOPECcountriesincreasesbyan

averageofabout0.6millionbbl/din2011and0.5millionbbl/din2012.

EIAexpectsthatthemarketwillrelyonbothadrawdownofinventoriesand

increasesinproductionfrombothOPECandnonOPECcountriestomeetprojected

demandgrowth.WhileOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclines0.4millionbbl/din2011

becauseofthedisruptionforecasttoLibyanproduction,OPECnoncrudeliquids

productiongrowsby0.6millionbbl/d. EIAexpectstheworldcrudeoilmarketwill

continuetotightenin2012,withforecastOPECcrudeoilproductionincreasingby0.7millionbbl/dandOPECnoncrudeproductiongrowingby0.4millionbbl/d.

Amongthemajoruncertaintiesthatcouldpushcrudeoilpricesaboveorbelowour

currentforecastare:continuedunrestinproducingcountriesanditspotentialimpact

onsupply;decisionsbykeyOPECmembercountriesregardingtheirproductionin

responsetotheglobalincreaseinoildemand;therateofeconomicgrowth,both

domesticallyandglobally;fiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnationalgovernments;

andChinaseffortstoaddressconcernsregardingitsgrowthandinflationrates.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption. EIAexpectsthatworldliquidfuels

consumption,whichreachedarecordlevelof86.7millionbarrelsperdayin2010,will

growby1.7millionbbl/din2011andbyanadditional1.6millionbbl/din2012,

resultingintotalworldconsumptionof90.0millionbbl/din2012. Countriesoutside

theOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)willmakeup

almostallofthegrowthinconsumptionoverthenexttwoyears,withthelargest

increasescomingfromChina,Brazil,andtheMiddleEast. Forecastsof2011


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consumptioninChina,Japan,andtheMiddleEastwereraisedby120thousandbbl/d,

80thousandbbl/d,and110thousandbbl/d,respectively,fromlastmonthsOutlook

becauseofhigherexpecteddemandforpetroleumfueledelectricpowergeneration.

EIAnowexpectsconsumptioninChinatoincreaseby700thousandbbl/din2011.

NonOPECSupply. EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproductionwillincreaseby590thousandbbl/din2011andby490thousandbbl/din2012. The

greatestincreasesinnonOPECoilproductionduring2011occurinBrazil(130

thousandbbl/d),Canada(170thousandbbl/d),China(140thousandbbl/d),Colombia

(110thousandbbl/d)andcountriesthatwereformerlypartoftheSovietUnion(210

thousandbbl/d). In2012,EIAexpectsproductiongrowthtoremainstronginCanada,

China,Brazil,andColombia,butforecastproductiongrowthintheformerSoviet

Unioncountriesslowsto80thousandbbl/d. OthernonOPECareasareexpectedto

decline,includingadecreaseinNorthSeaproductionof110thousandbbl/din2011

andafurther

decrease

of

200

thousand

bbl/d

in

2012.

OPECSupply.ForecastOPECcrudeoilproductiondeclinesby370thousandbbl/din

2011,followedbyanincreaseof660thousandbbl/din2012. EIAassumesthatabout

onehalfofLibyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012.

EstimatedOPECcrudeoilproductionduringthefirstquarterof2011averagedalmost

30millionbbl/d. EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscapacitywillfallfrom4.0million

bbl/dattheendof2010to3.6millionbbl/dattheendof2011,followedbyafurther

declineto3.1millionbbl/dbytheendof2012. EstimatedOPECproductionofnon

crudeliquidstotals6.0and6.4millionbbl/din2011and2012,respectively.

OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDinventorieswilldeclinein2011

followingthesteepdropinfloatingstoragethathasalreadyoccurred.Projected

onshoreOECDstocksfallbyabout120millionbarrelsin2011,followedbyan

additional110millionbarreldeclinein2012. Daysofsupply(totalinventories

dividedbyaveragedailyconsumption)dropsfromarelativelyhigh57.9daysduring

thefourthquarterof2010to54.6daysinthefourthquarterof2011,and52.4daysof

supplyinthefourthquarterof2012.

CrudeOilPrices.WTIcrudeoilspotpricesaveraged$103perbarrelinMarch,$110perbarrelinApril,and$101perbarrelinMay. TheWTIcrudeoilpricewas$113per

barrelatthebeginningofMaybutfellto$97perbarrelbytheendofthefirstweekof

themonth. FortheremainderofMay,WTIpricesfluctuatedwithinarelatively

narrowrangeofbetween$96and$103perbarrel. EIAstillexpectsoilmarketsto

tightenasgrowingliquidfuelsdemandintheemergingeconomiesandslowing

growthinnonOPECsupplymaintainupwardpressureonoilprices. EIAexpects

thatWTIspotprices,whichaveraged$79perbarrelin2010,willaverage$102per


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barrelin2011and$107perbarrelin2012,aboutthesameasexpectedinlastmonths

Outlook(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).

GrowingvolumesofCanadiancrudeoilimportedintotheUnitedStatescontributed

torecordhighstoragelevelsatCushing,Oklahomaofover41millionbarrelsatthe

endofMarch2011(86percentofworkingcapacityatCushing),andapricediscountforWTIcomparedwithsimilarqualityworldcrudessuchasBrent. Adiscountfor

WTIisexpectedtopersistuntiltransportationbottlenecksimpactingthemovementof

midcontinentcrudeoiltotheGulfcoastarerelieved. Consequently,theprojected

U.S.refineraverageacquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichwasabout$2.70perbarrel

belowWTIin2010, is$1.60perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$1.10perbarrelabove

WTIin2012.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecast

Uncertainty).WTI

futures

for

August

2011

delivery

over

the

5day

period

ending

June

2averaged$101.49perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged29percent,establishing

thelowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets

expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinJulyof$83perbarreland$124per

barrel,respectively. Lastyearatthistime,WTIforAugust2010deliveryaveraged$75

perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged39percent. Thecorrespondinglowerand

upperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$58perbarreland$97per

barrel.

U.S. CrudeOilandLiquidFuels

U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption. Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsincreasedby270

thousandbbl/d(1.4percent)duringthefirstquarter2011overthesameperiodthe

yearbefore(U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumptionGrowthChart). Consumptiongrowth

duringthefirstquarterwasledbydistillatefueloil(160thousandbbl/d)andliquefied

petroleumgas(70thousandbbl/d).Motorgasolineconsumptionfellby50thousand

bbl/d. Consumptiongrowthisexpectedtoslowovertheforecast. ProjectedtotalU.S.

liquidfuelsconsumptionincreasesbyanaverage150thousandbbl/d(0.8percent)in

2011,andbyafurther130thousandbbl/d(0.7percent),to19.4millionbbl/din2012,

whichis

still

well

below

the

record

high

20.8

million

bbl/d

in

2005.

Distillate

fuel,

buoyedbycontinuedincreasesinindustrialproduction,accountsfortwothirdsofthe

projectedincreaseinliquidfuelsconsumptionin2011.Motorgasolineisthefastest

growingconsumptioncategoryin2012,reflectinggrowingpopulation,rising

employmentandincome,andapredictedendtotherecentsteeprunupinretail

gasolineprices.
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U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports. Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which

increasedby150thousandbbl/din2010to5.51millionbbl/d,remainsatthatlevelin

2011beforedecliningby80thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProductionChart).

EIAexpectsthatproductiondeclinesfromtheGOMandAlaskatobeoffsetby

projectedincreasesinlower48nonGOMproductionof230thousandbbl/din2011

and110thousandbbl/din2012becauseofanincreaseinoildirectedonshoredrillingactivity.

BasedontheoutlookfromNOAAforthecurrentAtlantichurricaneseason,EIA

estimatesthemedianoutcomefortotalshutincrudeoilproductionintheGOM

duringtheupcominghurricaneseason(JunethroughNovember)of19millionbarrels

(anaverage105thousandbbl/doverthe6months). Thereisawiderangeof

uncertaintyaroundthisforecast(seethe2011OutlookforHurricaneRelatedProduction

OutagesintheGulfofMexico). Thebulkofoutagesareexpectedduringthelate

summerandearlyfallmonthsofAugust,September,andOctober.

Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57

percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010,primarilybecauseof

thedeclineinconsumptionduringtherecessionandrisingdomesticproduction. EIA

forecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportswillaverage9.4millionbbl/din2011and9.7

millionbbl/din2012,representing49percentand50percentoftotalconsumption,

respectively.

U.S.PetroleumProductPrices. EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade

gasolineretailpricewillincreasefrom$2.78pergallonin2010to$3.60pergallonin2011andto$3.67pergallonin2012. Thesizablejumpinretailpricesthisyearreflects

notonlythehigheraveragecostofcrudeoil,butalsoanincreaseinU.S.refinery

marginsongasoline(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasolinepricesand

theaveragecostofcrudeoil)fromanaverageof$0.34pergallonin2010to$0.47per

gallonin2011,still6to9centspergallonbelowtherecordmarginssetin2006and

2007. UnexpectedshutdownsofU.S.refiningcapacityinMarchandAprilwitha

largedropingasolinestocksontheEastCoast,alongwithfloodingoftheMississippi

riverinMay,contributedtotheincreaseinmarginsthisyear. Theprojectedrefinery

gasolinemargindeclinesto$0.44pergallonin2012.

EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon

in2010,willaverage$3.87pergallonin2011and$3.95pergallonin2012. Projected

U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreaseby21centspergallon,fromanaverage$0.38

pergallonin2010to$0.59pergallonin2011,thenfallto$0.53pergallonin2012.
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NaturalGas

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption. EIAexpectstotalnaturalgasconsumptionwillgrow

by1.4percentto67.1billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.TotalNaturalGas

ConsumptionChart). Forecastindustrialandelectricpowerconsumptionare

expectedtorise3.1percentto18.7Bcf/din2011and0.4percentto20.3Bcf/d,respectively. Growthintheelectricpowersectorin2011issomewhatmoderatedby

expecteddeclinesincoolingdemand,withforecastedcoolingdegreedaysfalling14.2

percentcomparedwithlastyear.

Projectedtotalconsumptionrisesslightlyin2012to67.2Bcf/d. Growthcontinuesin

theindustrialsectorat1.6percent,asthenaturalgasweightedindustrialproduction

indexrises2.7percent.Consumptionalsoincreasesintheelectricpowersector(2.1

percent). Residentialandcommercialconsumption,however,declineby2.8percent

and2.2percent,respectively,stemmingfromtheforecastdeclineinheatingdemand

fornaturalgas.

U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports. The2011productionforecasthasbeen

revisedupwardsignificantlydueinparttounexpectedlystrongMarchproduction

reportedinthelatestEIANaturalGasMonthly. TotalU.S.marketednaturalgas

productionisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percent(to64.6Bcf/d)in2011,upfrom2.3

percent(to63.2Bcf/d)forecastinlastmonthsOutlook.

Productioncontinuestogrowatastrongpacedespiteasignificantdeclineingas

directeddrillingactivity. AccordingtoBakerHughes,totalworkingnaturalgasrigsnownumber881,down11percentfromtheAugust2010level.However,growthin

oildirecteddrillingactivitycouldleadtosignificantincreasesinassociatednatural

gasproduction. EIAexpectsrisingnaturalgaspricesin2012tocontributetoan

increaseindrillingactivity.

Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgas

imports,andcontributedtoincreasedexports. EIAexpectsthatpipelinegross

importsofnaturalgaswillfall4.2percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andby3.7percent

to8.4Bcf/din2012. IncreasedpipelinegrossexportstoMexicoandCanadaduring

thefirstpartof2011haveledtoanupwardrevisionforboth2011and2012. Pipeline

grossexportsareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and3.9Bcf/din2012,

comparedtojust3.1Bcfin2010.

EIAprojectsU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)willfallfromanaverage1.2

Bcf/din2010to1.0Bcf/din2011and0.95Bcf/din2012. Becauseoftheearthquakein

Japanandsubsequentnucleargenerationoutages,JapansdemandforLNGasa
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replacementfuelforelectricpowergenerationisexpectedtoincrease,contributingto

higherglobalLNGprices.

U.S.NaturalGasInventories. OnMay27,2011,workingnaturalgasinstoragestood

at2,107Bcf,whichis237BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateMay(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasinStorageChart). EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughlowerthanlastyear,will

remainrobustgivenhigherforecastproductionthroughoutthe2011injectionseason.

Projectedinventoriessurpass3.8TcfattheendofOctober2011asaresultofhigh

productionlevelsandamildsummerrelativetolastyear.

U.S.NaturalGasPrices. TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.31perMMBtuin

May,6centshigherthantheAprilaverageand11centshigherthanforecastinlast

monthsOutlook(HenryHubNaturalGasPriceChart). EIAexpectsthattheHenry

Hubpricewillaverage$4.25perMMBtuin2011,adeclineof13centsfromthe2010

average. EIAexpectsthattheslowinggrowthinproductionwillcontributetoa

tighteningdomesticmarketnextyearwiththeHenryHubpriceaveraging$4.58per

MMBtuin2012.

Uncertaintyovernaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedtolastyearatthis

time(EnergyPriceVolatilityandForecastUncertainty).Naturalgasfuturesfor

August2011delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingJune2)averaged$4.66perMMBtu,

andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas33percent. Thelowerandupperboundsfor

the95percentconfidenceintervalforAugust2011contractsare$3.91perMMBtuand

$5.47perMMBtu. Atthistimelastyear,thenaturalgasAugust2010futurescontractaveraged$4.47perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged47percent. The

correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.22

perMMBtuand$6.20perMMBtu.

Electricity

U.S.ElectricityConsumption. EIAexpectslittlechangeintotalU.S.electricity

consumptionbetween2010and2011(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).

Coolingdegreedaysduring2011areassumedtobe14percentlowerthanlastyear,

whichdrivestheprojected2.5percentdeclineinretailelectricitysalestotheresidentialsector. Improvedeconomicconditionsshouldleadtoa3.6percent

increaseinsalestotheindustrialsector,whilecommercialsectorelectricitysalesshow

littlechangein2011. During2012,totalU.S.electricityconsumptiongrowsby2.0

percent.

U.S.ElectricityGeneration. EIAprojectsthattotalgenerationbytheelectricpower

sectorduring2011willremainclosetolastyearslevel(U.S.ElectricPowerSector
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GenerationGrowthChart).Weathereventshavesignificantlyaffectedgeneration

dispatchingpatternsthisspring. Preliminarydataindicatethathydroelectric

generationduringMarchreacheditshighestlevelsince1999asaresultofheavy

precipitationintheNorthwest,whilestrongthunderstormsandtornadoscauseda

numberofunplannednuclearplantoutagesduringApril. Theincreasein

hydroelectricgenerationthisyearcontributestoadeclineintheshareoftotalgenerationfueledbycoalandflatnaturalgasgenerationduring2011. EIAexpectsa

2.0percentincreaseintotalelectricpowersectorgenerationin2012,fueledprimarily

byincreasesincoal andnaturalgasfiredgeneration.

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices. EIAexpectstheaverageU.S.residentialelectricityprice

torisefrom11.58centsperkilowatthourin2010to11.83centsperkilowatthourthis

year,anincreaseof2.2percent(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart). Thecostof

coalandnaturalgastotheelectricpowersectorthisyearisexpectedtostayflat,

whichshould

flatten

retail

electricity

prices

next

year

because

of

regulatory

lags

in

the

passthroughofgenerationcoststoretailprices.

Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption. Coalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrewby4.5

percentin2010,primarilytheresultofhigherelectricitydemandduringthesummer.

EIAprojectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorwilldecreaseby1.5

percentin2011,aselectricitydemandremainsflatandgenerationfromotherenergy

sourcesincreases. Forecastcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorgrowsby2.9

percentin2012(U.S.CoalConsumptionGrowthChart).

U.S.CoalSupply. Coalproductionin2010grewbyonly1.0percentdespitethe5

percentincreaseintotalU.S.coalconsumption. Adrawdowninstocks,particularly

intheelectricpowersector,metthedemandincrease(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoal

StocksChart).EIAprojectsthatcoalproductionwillremainflatin2011,followedbya

2.5percentincreasein2012(U.S.AnnualCoalProductionChart).

U.S.CoalTrade. Strongglobaldemandforcoal,particularlymetallurgicalcoalused

toproducesteel,resultedinsharpincreasesinU.S.coalexportsin2010. U.S.coalexportsroseabout50%duringthefirstquarterof2011comparedto2010,reaching

26.6millionshorttons(mmst),thehighestlevelsince1992.Whilecokingcoalremains

theprimaryexport,exportsofsteamcoalledrecentgrowth,rising160%overthe

sameperiod. EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevatedin2011,particularlyinthefirsthalfoftheyear,reachinganannuallevelof98mmst. ForecastU.S.coal

exportsfallbacktomoretypicalhistoricallevels(approximately80mmst)in2012as

supplyfromothermajorcoalexportingcountriesrecovers.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig20.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig21.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig19.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig23.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig24.gif


9/43


EIAalsoexpectsthestrongglobaldemandforcoaltocontinuetosuppresscoal

imports,withimportsatlevelsbelow19mmstinboth2011and2012. U.S.coal

importsaveragedabout31mmstannuallyfrom2004through2009.

U.S.CoalPrices. Electricpowersectordeliveredcoalpriceshavebeenrisingrelativelysteadilyoverthelast10years,reflectinglongertermcoalcontractsinitiated

duringaperiodofhighenergyprices,risingtransportationcosts,andincreased

consumption.However,EIAexpectsthatthepowersectorcoalpricewillremain

stablein2011and2012ascoalcompeteswithnaturalgasforgenerationmarketshare.

Theprojectedpowersectordeliveredcoalprice,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin

2010,averages$2.28perMMBtuand$2.26perMMBtuin2011and2012,respectively.

U.S. CarbonDioxideEmissions

EIAestimatesthatfossilfuelCO2emissionsincreasedby3.8percentin2010(U.S.

CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart). ForecastfossilfuelCO2emissionsremain

flatin2011asemissionincreasesfromhigherpetroleumandnaturalgasconsumption

areoffsetbydeclinesincoalconsumption. Expectedincreasesinconsumptionofall

fossilfuelsin2012contributetoa1.6percentincreaseinfossilfuelCO2emissions.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gifhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig26.gif


10/43

U.S. Energy Information AdministrationIndependent Statistics & Analysis

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Chart Gallery for June 2011

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012

Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2011

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011

Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

dollars per barrel

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices

Forecast

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

dollars per gallon

Retail Regular Gasoline

Crude Oil

dollarsper gallon


11/43

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices

Forecast

1.30

1.80

2.30

2.80

3.30

3.80

4.30

4.80


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

dollars per gallon

Retail Diesel Fuel

Crude Oil

dollarsper gallon

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012

Historical spot price

STEO price forecast

NYMEX futures price

95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval


Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending June 2, 2011

Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

dollars per million btu

Natural Gas Prices

Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25


Residential priceHenry Hub spot price

Composite wellhead price


dollars per thousand cubic feet


12/43

World Liquid Fuels Consumption

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.01.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

China United States Other Countries

Total consumption

Annual growth


Forecast

million barrels per day million barrels per day

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth

(change from previous year)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2010 2011 2012

OECD* Non-OECD Asia FSU** and Eastern Europe Other


* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development** Former Soviet Union

Forecast

million barrels per day

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2010 2011 2012

OPEC countries Russia and Caspian Sea

North America Latin America

North Sea Other Non-OPEC


Forecast


World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth



13/43

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


-0.4

-0.3-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Canada

China

UnitedStates

Brazil

Colombia

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Russia

Vietnam

India

Oman

Sudan

Egypt

Syria

Gabon

Australia

OtherNorthSea

Malaysia

Mexico

Norway

UnitedKingdom

2012

2011

2010



World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


Forecast

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100World oil consumption (left axis)

Non-OPEC production (left axis)

WTI crude oil price (right axis)


millions of barrels per day dollars per barrel

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Forecast

Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)




14/43

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

Forecast

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012


0

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum obeserved inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

days of supply

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Fuel ethanol Crude oil Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus

Total production

Annual change


Forecast

Total production


Change from prior year

(million barrels per day)

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Forecast

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400


Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.


0

million barrels


15/43

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2010 2011 2012

Total Motor gasoline Jet fuel Distillate fuel Other


Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth

2.0% 0.8% 0.7%

Forecastthousand barrels per day

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories

Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260



Total motor gasoline inventory

Total distillate fuel inventory


0

million barrels

U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption

3.9%

-4.4%

3.5%

0.2%

-1.4% -1.5%

6.5%

0.5%

5.7%

1.4%0.3%

-1.6%

-3.2%

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Consumption

Annual growth

Forecast

billion cubic feet per day change from prior year


16/43

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage

Forecast

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


Deviation from 2005 - 2009 average

Storage level

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010


billion cubic feet

U.S. Coal Consumption Growth


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010 2011 2012

Total consumption Electric power sector Retail and general industry Coke plants

Forecast


U.S. Annual Coal Production

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total U.S. Western region

Appalachian region Interior region

Forecast

million short tons



17/43

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks

Forecast

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan

2003

Jan

2004

Jan

2005

Jan

2006

Jan

2007

Jan

2008

Jan

2009

Jan

2010

Jan

2011

Jan

2012



0

million short tons

U.S. Total Electricity Consumption

2.8%

-0.7%

2.1%0.8% 1.2%

2.8%

0.2%

1.9%

-0.9%

-3.4%

4.3%

0.0%

2.0%

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Annual growth

Consumption


Forecast

billion kilowatthours per day change from prior year

U.S. Residential Electricity Price

0.9%

4.2%

-1.6%

3.2% 2.6%

5.4%

10.3%

2.4%

5.7%

2.2%0.6%

2.2%0.1%

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Annual growth

Monthly average electricity priceForecast

cents per kilowatthourchange from prior year


18/43

U.S. Electric Power Sector Generation Growth


-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2011 2012

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydropower Other Renewables


Note: Percent change labels refer to growth in total generation. Not all generation sources are shown.

4.2% -0.3% 2.0%

Forecast

gigawatt-hours per day

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share

of Gross Domestic Product

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012


Forecast

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

2010 2011 2012

All Fossil Fuels Coal Petroleum Natural Gas

Forecast



19/43

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days

(population-weighted)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

2008

2009

20102011

2012

Normal


Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days

(population-weighted)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

Normal


Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Servicehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Pacific

East

South

Central

South

Atlantic

Middle

Atlantic

New

England

West

South

Central

West

North

Central

East

North

CentralMountain

WAMT

WID

NV

UT

CO

AZ

NM

TX

OK

IA

KS MO ILIN

KY

TN

MSAL

FL

GASC

NC

WV

PA

NY

VTME

NJ

MD

DE

CTRIMA

NH

VA

W

MI

OH

NE

SD

MNND

AR

LA

OR

CA

AKPacific

HIPacific

WEST MIDWEST NORTHEAST

SOUTH

REGION

Division

LEGEND

State

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions



20/43

Q2 Q3 Season Q2 Q3 Season Q2 Q3 Season

Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)

WTI Crude Oil (Spot)a

1.85 1.81 1.83 2.48 2.48 2.48 33.9 36.7 35.3 Imported Crude Oil Price

b1.77 1.75 1.76 2.53 2.52 2.53 42.8 44.6 43.7

U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost 1.79 1.76 1.78 2.53 2.52 2.53 41.0 43.1 42.0

Wholesale Gasoline Pricec

2.18 2.10 2.14 3.13 3.01 3.07 43.9 43.4 43.6

Wholesale Diesel Fuel Pricec 2.20 2.15 2.17 3.15 3.10 3.13 43.1 44.4 43.8

Regular Gasoline Retail Priced

2.81 2.72 2.76 3.82 3.68 3.75 36.3 35.3 35.8

Diesel Fuel Retail Priced 3.03 2.94 2.98 4.01 3.92 3.97 32.6 33.4 33.0

Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)

Total Consumption 9.201 9.288 9.245 9.171 9.323 9.248 -0.3 0.4 0.0

Total Refinery and Blender Outpute

7.604 7.699 7.652 7.473 7.691 7.583 -1.7 -0.1 -0.9

Fuel Ethanol Blending 0.858 0.879 0.868 0.876 0.879 0.877 2.1 0.1 1.1

Total Stock Withdrawalf

0.101 -0.049 0.026 0.016 0.090 0.053

Net Imports f 0.639 0.759 0.700 0.807 0.663 0.735 26.3 -12.7 5.0

Refinery Utilization (percent) 89.0 88.8 88.9 85.1 87.8 86.5

Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)

Beginning 224.0 214.8 224.0 214.9 213.4 214.9

Ending 214.8 219.3 219.3 213.4 205.2 205.2

Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)

Real GDP 13,195 13,279 13,237 13,551 13,654 13,602 2.7 2.8 2.8

Real Income 10,252 10,277 10,264 10,434 10,475 10,454 1.8 1.9 1.8

Year-over-year Change

(percent)

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- June 2011

Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook

2010 2011

Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-

0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).

Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.

eRefinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.

fTotal stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.

GDP = gross domestic product.

Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data

are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.

aSpot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

bCost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.

cPrice product sold by refiners to resellers.

d Average pump price including taxes.


21/43

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2010 2011 2012

Energy Supply

Crude Oil Production (a)

million barrels per day) .............................. 5.47 5.48 5.49 5.61 5.57 5.54 5.41 5.54 5.55 5.48 5.34 5.39 5.51 5.51 5.44

Dry Natural Gas Production

billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 57.93 58.56 59.28 60.66 60.95 62.62 61.85 61.73 61.75 61.56 61.62 62.19 59.12 61.79 61.78

Coal Production

million short tons) ....................................... 265 265 278 277 271 263 275 275 284 270 281 278 1,085 1,085 1,112

Energy Consumption

iquid Fuels

million barrels per day) .............................. 18.82 19.01 19.49 19.26 19.09 19.21 19.52 19.38 19.33 19.32 19.58 19.50 19.15 19.30 19.43

Natural Gas

billion cubic feet per day) ........................... 83.41 54.42 57.93 68.95 83.78 55.68 57.84 71.19 83.39 55.77 58.55 71.29 66.12 67.06 67.24

Coal (b)

million short tons) ....................................... 265 247 286 250 254 245 275 258 275 245 283 260 1,048 1,032 1,064

Electricity

billion kilowatt hours per day) .................... 10.61 10.02 12.01 9.92 10.60 10.13 11.81 10.04 10.86 10.31 12.03 10.23 10.64 10.65 10.86

Renewables (c)

quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 1.77 1.95 1.80 1.84 2.06 2.24 2.03 1.90 2.02 2.21 2.04 2.03 7.36 8.23 8.31

Total Energy Consumption (d)

quadrillion Btu) ........................................... 25.75 22.96 24.65 25.04 26.02 23.52 24.60 25.12 26.62 23.68 24.95 25.44 98.41 99.27 100.69

Energy Prices

Crude Oil (e)

dollars per barrel) ....................................... 75.89 75.34 74.05 81.70 94.01 106.21 105.98 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 76.72 103.54 108.12

Natural Gas Wellhead

dollars per thousand cubic feet) ................. 4.79 4.07 4.11 3.67 3.99 3.94 3.98 4.28 4.35 4.06 4.23 4.57 4.15 4.05 4.30

Coal

dollars per million Btu) ............................... 2.26 2.26 2.28 2.25 2.35 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.26 2.28 2.26

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product

billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 13,139 13,195 13,279 13,381 13,439 13,551 13,654 13,771 13,855 13,934 14,031 14,139 13,248 13,603 13,990

Percent change from prior year ................... 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

ndex, 2005=100) ........................................ 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.2 111.7 112.6 113.1 113.3 113.7 113.9 114.5 115.1 110.7 112.7 114.3


Real Disposable Personal Income

billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) ......... 10,113 10,252 10,277 10,324 10,399 10,434 10,475 10,532 10,487 10,573 10,618 10,668 10,241 10,460 10,587


Manufacturing Production Index

ndex, 2007=100) ........................................ 85.0 86.9 88.1 89.0 91.1 92.3 94.2 95.6 96.5 97.2 98.1 98.8 87.3 93.3 97.6


Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days .......................... 2,311 422 68 1,659 2,285 515 100 1,632 2,249 537 100 1,618 4,460 4,532 4,504

U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .......................... 12 445 937 73 33 377 771 77 35 344 778 83 1,467 1,258 1,240

Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).

Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226;Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; andInternational Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.

Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.

Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2;Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208;Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380;Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;

Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.

Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2011

2010 2011 2012 Year

EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.

d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).

c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.

= no data availablePrices are not adjusted for inflation.

a) Includes lease condensate.

b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.


22/43


Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)

West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ........................... 78.64 77.79 76.05 85.10 93.50 104.14 104.00 106.00 107.00 106.00 107.00 108.00 79.40 101.91 10

Imported Average ............................................................. 75.28 74.33 73.32 81.03 94.27 106.18 105.99 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 75.87 103.64 10

Refiner Average Acquisition Cost .................................... 75.89 75.34 74.05 81.70 94.01 106.21 105.98 107.50 108.50 107.50 108.00 108.50 76.72 103.54 10

iquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

Refiner Prices for Resale

Gasoline ........................................................................ 211 218 210 227 267 313 301 293 299 309 304 295 217 294

Diesel Fuel .................................................................... 209 220 215 240 286 315 310 311 308 308 311 314 221 306

Heating Oil .................................................................... 205 212 204 234 275 306 303 309 309 306 306 311 215 295

Refiner Prices to End Users

Jet Fuel ......................................................................... 210 219 214 238 287 316 309 311 309 307 310 313 220 306

No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................ 172 170 166 182 218 241 242 246 247 244 246 251 173 236

Propane to Petrochemical Sector .................................

Retail Prices Including Taxes

Gasoline Regular Grade (b) .......................................... 271 281 272 288 329 382 368 357 362 374 372 360 278 360

Gasoline All Grades (b) ................................................. 277 286 277 294 335 388 373 363 367 379 377 365 283 365

On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................ 285 303 294 315 363 401 392 393 393 394 396 399 299 387

Heating Oil .................................................................... 292 293 282 310 359 391 390 401 410 404 400 408 298 378

Propane .........................................................................

Natural Gas

Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ...... 4.79 4.07 4.11 3.67 3.99 3.94 3.98 4.28 4.35 4.06 4.23 4.57 4.15 4.05

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .......... 5.30 4.45 4.41 3.91 4.31 4.38 4.24 4.59 4.80 4.40 4.60 5.08 4.52 4.38

Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .................... ..... 5.15 4.32 4.28 3.80 4.18 4.25 4.12 4.45 4.66 4.27 4.46 4.93 4.39 4.25

End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

Industrial Sector ............................................................ 6.51 4.98 5.07 4.89 5.40 5.23 5.25 5.87 6.25 5.44 5.51 6.22 5.40 5.44

Commercial Sector ....................................................... 9.30 9.25 9.63 8.66 8.66 9.04 9.63 9.83 9.71 9.73 10.19 10.27 9.14 9.18

Residential Sector ......................................................... 10.59 12.54 15.47 10.56 9.98 12.00 15.98 12.11 11.08 12.66 16.64 12.66 11.18 11.35 1Electricity

Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

Coal ............................................................................... 2.26 2.26 2.28 2.25 2.35 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.29 2.27 2.25 2.22 2.26 2.28

Natural Gas .............................. ..................... ............... 6.06 4.89 4.88 4.69 5.05 4.88 5.02 5.28 5.51 5.09 5.29 5.63 5.08 5.05

Residual Fuel Oil (c) ...................................................... 12.10 12.36 12.36 14.19 15.58 17.55 17.80 18.03 18.30 18.32 18.21 18.13 12.63 17.40 1

Distillate Fuel Oil ........................................................... 15.84 16.48 16.18 17.94 20.82 23.34 23.39 23.74 23.66 23.47 23.67 23.88 16.60 22.74 2

End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

Industrial Sector ............................................................ 6.53 6.75 7.17 6.67 6.67 6.76 7.15 6.68 6.56 6.79 7.20 6.73 6.79 6.82

Commercial Sector ....................................................... 9.87 10.30 10.71 10.06 10.02 10.42 10.90 10.22 10.02 10.46 10.96 10.29 10.26 10.41 1

Residential Sector ......................................................... 10.88 11.90 12.02 11.50 11.25 12.06 12.32 11.65 11.11 12.11 12.37 11.75 11.58 11.83 1

c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.


Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;

Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

b) Average self-service cash price.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


2010 2011 2012 Year

This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear

beginning with the July 2011 edition.

This price series discontinued beginning with the June 2011 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This row will no longer appear

beginning with the July 2011 edition.


Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

a) Average for all sulfur contents.

= no data available

Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).

Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted

Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035.


23/43


Supply (million barrels per day) (a)

OECD ................................................ 21.44 21.30 20.97 21.83 21.54 21.64 21.15 21.38 21.58 21.45 21.11 21.30 21.39 21.43 2

U.S. (50 States) ............................. 9.46 9.56 9.67 9.91 9.77 9.73 9.63 9.75 9.69 9.66 9.57 9.62 9.65 9.72

Canada .......................................... 3.45 3.58 3.55 3.77 3.75 3.75 3.71 3.82 3.93 3.95 3.99 4.02 3.59 3.76

Mexico ............................................ 2.95 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.91 2.87 2.81 2.81 2.86 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.90 2.85

North Sea (b) ................................. 4.08 3.74 3.36 3.76 3.68 3.79 3.49 3.51 3.61 3.51 3.23 3.38 3.73 3.62

Other OECD ................................... 1.51 1.54 1.53 1.49 1.44 1.50 1.50 1.47 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.47 1.52 1.48

Non-OECD ........................................ 64.55 65.29 66.14 65.82 66.03 66.32 66.22 66.45 67.53 67.69 67.93 68.48 65.46 66.26 6

OPEC ............................................. 34.51 35.02 35.71 35.35 35.48 35.16 35.41 35.55 36.08 36.20 36.56 37.12 35.15 35.40 3

Crude Oil Portion ........................ 29.40 29.65 30.15 29.85 29.77 29.11 29.34 29.37 29.70 29.78 30.11 30.63 29.77 29.40 3Other Liquids ............................... 5.11 5.37 5.57 5.49 5.70 6.05 6.07 6.18 6.38 6.42 6.45 6.49 5.39 6.00

Former Soviet Union ...................... 13.11 13.15 13.18 13.22 13.27 13.51 13.36 13.39 13.65 13.53 13.37 13.28 13.17 13.38 1

China .............................................. 4.16 4.23 4.31 4.37 4.31 4.45 4.41 4.45 4.51 4.56 4.57 4.58 4.27 4.41

Other Non-OECD ........................... 12.78 12.88 12.94 12.89 12.98 13.20 13.05 13.06 13.29 13.40 13.43 13.51 12.87 13.07 1

Total World Supply ............................ 86.00 86.59 87.11 87.65 87.57 87.96 87.37 87.82 89.11 89.13 89.04 89.79 86.84 87.68 8

Non-OPEC Supply ............................ 51.49 51.56 51.40 52.31 52.10 52.81 51.96 52.28 53.02 52.93 52.48 52.67 51.69 52.28 5

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)

OECD ................................................ 45.79 45.09 46.55 46.66 46.29 45.07 46.24 46.81 46.81 45.19 45.96 46.64 46.03 46.11 4

U.S. (50 States) ............................. 18.82 19.01 19.49 19.26 19.09 19.21 19.52 19.38 19.33 19.32 19.58 19.50 19.15 19.30 1

U.S. Territories ............................... 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

Canada .......................................... 2.19 2.21 2.28 2.26 2.29 2.18 2.29 2.28 2.30 2.21 2.32 2.32 2.24 2.26

Europe ............................................ 14.18 14.12 14.79 14.69 14.17 14.01 14.48 14.59 14.17 13.82 14.28 14.40 14.45 14.32 1

Japan ............................................. 4.79 4.04 4.33 4.54 4.85 3.95 4.33 4.65 4.93 4.00 4.03 4.40 4.42 4.44

Other OECD ................................... 5.55 5.44 5.38 5.64 5.62 5.45 5.36 5.64 5.80 5.57 5.47 5.76 5.50 5.52 Non-OECD ........................................ 39.63 41.14 40.92 41.08 41.52 42.78 42.94 42.05 43.21 44.26 44.30 43.70 40.70 42.32 4

Former Soviet Union ...................... 4.32 4.34 4.49 4.45 4.42 4.47 4.62 4.58 4.50 4.55 4.71 4.67 4.40 4.52

Europe ............................................ 0.79 0.77 0.83 0.83 0.78 0.76 0.81 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.79

China .............................................. 8.88 9.31 8.89 9.60 9.65 10.11 10.02 9.71 10.32 10.58 10.44 10.34 9.17 9.87 1

Other Asia ...................................... 9.81 9.93 9.47 9.69 10.18 10.20 9.74 9.97 10.40 10.42 9.95 10.18 9.72 10.02 1

Other Non-OECD ........................... 15.83 16.79 17.25 16.52 16.49 17.24 17.74 16.97 17.19 17.93 18.38 17.69 16.60 17.11 1

Total World Consumption ................. 85.41 86.23 87.47 87.75 87.81 87.85 89.18 88.86 90.02 89.44 90.26 90.34 86.73 88.43 9

nventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)

U.S. (50 States) ................................ -0.03 -0.65 -0.20 0.69 0.27 -0.36 -0.09 0.56 0.07 -0.39 -0.13 0.54 -0.05 0.09

Other OECD ...................................... -0.16 -0.38 0.36 0.19 -0.10 0.09 0.73 0.19 0.33 0.26 0.50 0.00 0.01 0.23

Other Stock Draws and Balance ...... -0.39 0.68 0.19 -0.78 0.07 0.15 1.17 0.29 0.51 0.44 0.84 0.01 -0.08 0.42

Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.58 -0.35 0.36 0.09 0.24 -0.11 1.81 1.03 0.91 0.31 1.22 0.55 -0.12 0.75

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)

U.S. Commercial Inventory .............. 1,053 1,112 1,130 1,067 1,043 1,075 1,084 1,033 1,026 1,062 1,073 1,024 1,067 1,033 OECD Commercial Inventory ........... 2,649 2,742 2,727 2,647 2,632 2,656 2,597 2,529 2,492 2,504 2,470 2,420 2,647 2,529

Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.


Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data

Service, latest monthly release.

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.

b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.


Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.

c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,

a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.


2010 2011 2012 Year

= no data available

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,


24/43


North America ................................... 15.86 16.02 16.09 16.58 16.42 16.35 16.15 16.39 16.48 16.45 16.37 16.45 16.14 16.33 1

Canada ................................................ 3.45 3.58 3.55 3.77 3.75 3.75 3.71 3.82 3.93 3.95 3.99 4.02 3.59 3.76

Mexico .................................................. 2.95 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.91 2.87 2.81 2.81 2.86 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.90 2.85

United States ....................................... 9.46 9.56 9.67 9.91 9.77 9.73 9.63 9.75 9.69 9.66 9.57 9.62 9.65 9.72

Central and South America .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.72 4.80 4.80 4.81 4.90 5.11 4.99 5.00 5.08 5.22 5.25 5.27 4.78 5.00

Argentina ............................................. 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.77

Brazil .................................................... 2.68 2.75 2.75 2.80 2.80 2.96 2.87 2.86 2.89 3.02 3.02 3.04 2.74 2.87

Colombia .............................................. 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.83 0.88 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 0.80 0.91 Other Central and S. America ............. 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46

Europe ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.92 4.60 4.23 4.64 4.55 4.63 4.32 4.34 4.44 4.34 4.06 4.21 4.60 4.46

Norway ................................................. 2.32 2.11 1.93 2.18 2.10 2.27 2.14 2.06 2.14 2.12 1.98 2.03 2.13 2.14

United Kingdom (offshore) .................. 1.46 1.35 1.18 1.30 1.29 1.24 1.08 1.18 1.20 1.12 1.00 1.09 1.32 1.20

Other North Sea .................................. 0.30 0.29 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.28

FSU and Eastern Europe ................. 13.11 13.15 13.18 13.22 13.27 13.51 13.36 13.39 13.65 13.53 13.37 13.28 13.17 13.38 1

Azerbaijan ............................................ 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.00 1.16 1.20 1.19 1.23 1.20 1.15 1.13 1.04 1.14

eia: short-term energy outlook june 2011

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