egovernment, internet & policy agendaspeople.csail.mit.edu/wlehr/lehr-papers_files/lehr irish...

© Lehr, 2012

eGovernment, Internet & Policy Agendas

William Lehr MIT

© Lehr, 2012

Our Vision at the Communications Futures Program (CFP) is to define the roadmap for communications and its impact on adjacent industries. CFP is a cross cutting partnership between academia and industry, with industrial partners from across the value chain.

Multidisciplinary : technology, business strategy/economics and policy

Cross Value Chain : across industry … chips to boxes to services to apps, across functions… R&D to strategy to operations, industry to academia to policy

Open Communications : focus on destabilizing shifts of intelligence and control between network owners and end users

http://cfp.mit.edu

© Lehr, 2012

Some areas of research interest

Vision of the Wireless Broadband Future Broadband Internet as the new PSTN Economic Impacts of ICTs & the Metrics challenge

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Vision of the ICT Future

Phase 1: 1950-1995 Ø  Universal telephone service, computing everywhere (in business) Ø  PCs on every desktop, LANs to tie them together

Phase 2: 1995-2000 Ø  Internet and mass market data services: computing everywhere in society Ø  Mobile telephony and personalization of communications

Phase 3: 2000-2012 Ø  Broadband: uncork the last-mile speed bottleneck Ø  Mobile + Internet convergence Ø  Personalization, everywhere/always connected, mixed/multi-media Ø  Social networking, social media

Phase 4(?) : 2013+ Ø  M2M, Sensors, Ambient/context-dependent (AI-enabled) computing Ø  Automation and Cyber-mechanical integration Ø  Cloud computing : connectivity, computing/storage resources, …..

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Vision of the Wireless Broadband Future

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Communications

Computing

Control

-- Sensors/RFID -- Smart - healthcare - energy grids - highways - buildings…

Convergence à Pervasive Computing….

-- Internet of Things -- Everything connected

-- mobile Internet -- everywhere/always connected


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Transition to Liquid Value Chains SOLID PHASE

-- vertical value/production chains -- hierarchical -- standardization -- rigid organizational structure -- well-defined industry boundaries -- public utility regulation

e.g., Traditional telecoms Retail trade Broadcasting/media content Product design/marketing

LIQUID PHASE

-- flexible/dynamic organizations -- distributed, peering, outsourcing -- interfaces -- interactive -- industry convergence -- market competition

e.g., Internet eCommerce, eBay Blogs, Wikipedia, YouTube Viral marketing


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faster Clockspeed Data Processing Internet Real Time

Weeks Batch Megabytes Punch Cards Few People

Days Request/Reply Terabytes Human Many People

Minutes Automated Exabytes Event Driven Beyond People

(Still Happening)

-- more competition (faster entry/exit, geographic mobility) -- shorter product (firm/industry) lifecycles -- more systemic uncertainty (volatility, complexity) -- competitive advantage more ephemeral

e.g., Just-in-time organization, outsourcing, plan for unexpected, IT-intensive


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End-user Empowerment End-users have the options… -- ICT saavy generation -- Rising discretionary income -- Communication intensive

They control the platform -- Cell phone, iPod, PC -- Application (and OS) -- Lease or buy?

They control the time/place -- Stream or Store/forward -- Internet is everywhere

Collectively, they control the info -- Wikis, Blogs, Social networks -- Viral networking -- Flash mobs

What do businesses need to do? -- proactive customer engagement -- interactive, open, truthful -- churn accelerates (fast and fickle)

Opportunities: -- self-service economy -- partners in risk/capital management -- continuous innovation


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Basic infrastructure is -- Ubiquitously available (affordably) -- Pervasively used (adopted) -- Publicly-provided (often), regulated

Broadband is basic infrastructure

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Roads, water, electricity,….. telecommunications…

Telecom a bit special -- Mostly private investment (regulated utility => managed competition) -- Rapid technical change, complex/changing value chain (convergence) -- More heterogeneous services (uses/needs)

Broadband is future of Internet (and it’s an eEconomy) -- Facebook, podcasting, YouTube, Web2.0,… -- SmartX (X=business, infrastructure, grids, healthcare) -- eCommerce (B2B, B2C), eHealth, eEducation, eEntertainment, eGovt…

Broadband Internet as the new PSTN

© Lehr, 2012

Broadband Internet becoming the new PSTN

Three separate trends….

(1) From Telephone to Internet •  Voice telephony “silo” è Async data hour-glass •  4KHz VG circuit è “best effort” packet data over anything

(2) From Internet to Cloud Computing Utility •  Transport è Services (VoIP, Netflix, Facebook,….) •  E2e Peers è Cloud services (storage, CDN, trust)

(3) From Public Utility Regulation to Markets •  Command & Control è Market discretion

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© Lehr, 2012

Internet’s evolution and policy implications

Internet (old): e2e, best-effort, switched packet-data network (future): cloud utility computing platform Internet is “new” PSTN: THE platform for all electronic comms -- Basic essential infrastructure for economy (like water, roads, electricity…) -- Enduring public interest: USF, public safety, economic development, telecom -- Markets instead of public utility regulation

Challenge is increased: -- Heterogeneity -- Dynamism -- Complexity

(no one size fits all) (flexible provisioning) (adaptability, evolvability) (not just telephone) (shared resources (lots more functionality; by diverse QoS apps; new players/uses; bursty traffic) faster clockspeed)

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Some core areas for policy concern Transitioning legacy telecom

Ø  Universal service: affordable access for all Ø  Interconnection/Open access : competition, choice Ø  Content/broadcast : diversity, speech

Spectrum policy future Ø  From C&C to markets: flexible licensed & unlicensed, auctions Ø  Spectrum sharing across uses, users, and networks/infrastructures

Public safety Ø  Next generation wireless broadband networks

Security, trust, privacy Ø  Privacy protection quandary Ø  Reliability, safety

Other stuff Ø  Tax policy : VAT and the eCommerce Ø  Trade policy : ITU, WIPO Ø  Intellectual Property : Patents, Copyright Ø  Economic development : ICT as tool for development

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Value-added Service -> better Internet access

Essential Service -> BB and triple play

Essential platform -> New PSTN

Availability Adoption Usage

Infrastructure investment

Pricing, Universal Service subsidies, Choice, QoS

Skills, Verticals (SmartX), Complementary assets

Past Fixed 0.2-1Mbps DSL, cable

Present Fixed 5-50Mbps DSL, cable Mobile 0.1Mbps 3G

Future Fixed 100Mbps+ FTTx Mobile 5-10Mbps 4G LTE, WiMax

Web eCommerce

Web2.0 Media convergence Social media

Pervasive computing Mobile BB Cloud resources, IoT,…

Changing face of broadband & policy implications Broadband Internet as the new PSTN

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Broadband contributes to economic growth

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ICT adds to productivity (and BB critical component of ICT)… -- Supply-chain management/just-in-time/flexible production -- Complements labor (skill-biased, value-added) -- Expand markets & competition (death of distance, globalization) -- Changes how we work: org change, outsourcing, process innovation

Broadband critical to key sectors (drivers)… -- eCommerce: B2B (supply chain), B2C (retail) -- Education: information sharing/acquisition, skills enhancement -- Healthcare: aging population, patient mgmt/empowerment, home care -- Environment: energy efficiency, smart grids, telecommuting -- eGovernment: government efficiency

But how do we know above hypothesis is correct? -- How much is enough?

Economic Impacts of ICTs & the Metrics challenge

© Lehr, 2012 15 Source: “Emerging Digital Economy,” Department of Commerce, 1998.

ICT engine for economic growth, growing in importance


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Jorgenson (2001): ICT added 1.18% to GDP growth and accounted for 2/3rds of total factor productivity growth 1995-2000. Jorgenson, Ho, Stiroh (2007): ICT contributed 59% of growth in labor productivity from 1995-2000, and 33% from 2000-2005 Fuss and Waverman (2006): 60% of the slower productivity growth experienced by Canada (relative to US) in 2003 attributed to less intensive ICT use. Varian, Litan, Elder, Shutter (2002): US firms have adopted Internet business solutions more intensively than European firms. Crandall, Lehr, and Litan (2007) : 1% increase in BB penetration results in 0.2-0.3% higher job growth over one year, or ~300k additional jobs. Lehr, Osorio, Gillett, and Sirbu (2005) : BB added 1-1.4% to job growth

Information Productivity Paradox a measurement issue… Information Technology yields significant excess returns!


© Lehr, 2012

Internet metrics challenge

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Markets & Policy need data - esp. if goal is light-handed regulation - most of investment is private (but some public investment needed)

It’s an Information Economy - BB < Internet < Information Economy < Economy - BB is basic infrastructure à economy, society, public safety

Economic Development, Regulation, & Network Mgmt - Economic impact à Public Funds à Investment - Regulation à telecom, content, antitrust - Network Mgmt à architecture, provisioning, operational (congestion)

Internet will continue to evolve - BB a moving target - Mobility is future - Lots other stuff… clouds, smartX (grids, homes, cars), ….


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Data, data everywhere Internet as measurement platform -- sensors, mobile platforms, social-networking, and cloud resources to measure

anything/every thing, automating decision-making Big Data challenge -- PB data sets require new tools such as cloud services & parallel processing -- Skills deficit in how to work with large data sets. Need new theory, metrics,

analytic approaches. Democratizing the data game -- What’s the truth when anyone can play? Skills/understanding gap -- Crowdsourcing, “experts,” and validation

Policymaking: more public-private partnerships -- From custodian to curator -- From publisher to communicator -- Inherently multidisciplinary, multi-stakeholder engagement

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© Lehr, 2012

Summing up

Future is pervasive computing : always on/everywhere connected Ø  Convergence communication, computing & control Ø  Broadband (rich media), Wireless (mobile) Ø  Intelligent edges (distributed, AI-enabled, context aware) Ø  Personalized (individual is center, customizable, adaptive) Ø  Heterogeneous (hw/sw, competition, networks/equip, wired/wireless)

Implications: Ø  Liquid value chains (adaptive, fluid organization/markets structures) Ø  Faster clockspeed (just-in-time, real-time, outsourcing) Ø  End-user empowerment (self-service economy) Ø  Greater complexity (choice, options, flexible architectures)

BB Internet as the new PSTN Ø  BB as basic infrastructure è Enduring public interest Ø  Markets instead of Public Utility Regulation Ø  Transitioning of traditional regulatory policies

Metrics challenge Ø  Economic impacts in usage è SmartX Ø  Measuring the Internet economy is multidisciplinary, evolutionary Ø  Data everywhere è Big Data challenge, real-time control

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Thanks for your attention! Questions: [email protected] Websites: http://cfp.mit.edu http//csail.mit.edu/~wlehr

© Lehr, 2012

References

Lehr, W., S. Bauer, and D. Clark (2012), "Measuring Broadband Performance when Broadband is the New PSTN," MITAS Working Paper, May 2012.

Lehr, W. (2012), “Measuring the Internet: the data challenge,"

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Digital Economy Working Paper 184, ISSN 2071-6826, April 2012

Chapin, J. and W. Lehr (2011) "Mobile Broadband Growth, Spectrum

Scarcity, and Sustainable Competition," 39th Research Conference on Communications, Information and Internet Policy (www.tprcweb.com), Alexandria, VA, September 2011.

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