EEA scenario 2005 project:

“Climate Change and a European low-carbon energy

system”

Rob Swart, EEA Topic Centre Air and Climate Change

(core presentation provided by Hans Eerens)

It is not most important to predict the future, but to be prepared for it

Perikles (about 500-429 b. Chr.)

SoEOR2005 Air and Climate Change

Energy and GHG projections

Regional air quality 2000-2030

Some conclusions

SoEOR2005

ETC/ACC partners and others involved:

• RIVM: IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR/EUROMOVE models, global scenarios, climate effects, coordination

• NTUA: PRIMES/GEM-E3/PROMETHEUS models, European energy system

• IIASA: RAINS model, European air quality• DNMI: EMEP model

• AEAT: non-CO2 GHGs and non-energy CO2 emissions

• IPTS: POLES model, technology variants• AUTH: OFIS, OSPM model, transport & urban Air Quality• NILU: air Pollution State & policies• CCE: air pollution effects on ecosystems/critical loads

• EEA: project guidance, links with issues other than air and climate

change

SoEOR2005: series of reportsSoEOR2005: series of reports

• Climate change and a low-carbon European energy system

• European Environmental Outlook

• Main SoEOR2005 report (29 November 2005)• Air quality and ancillary benefits of climate policy

(December 2005?)

                                                                     

SoEOR2005 SoEOR2005 ObjectiveObjective ACC ACC

Assessment of long-term air pollution and climate change trends and scenarios

–Europe (2030) in a global long-term context (2100)–Baseline (no climate action after 2012, moderate high

economic growth, based on CAFE scenario)–Climate action scenario (550 CO2eq) assuming EU25

GHG target of -40 % by 2030 (from 1990 levels), combination of domestic action and use of international flexibility mechanisms

–Variants (low economic growth path, high renewable/biomass ambitions, increase/decrease use of nuclear energy, Maximum Feasible Reductions AQ)

Baseline and climate action scenarios compared to IPCC SRES scenarios

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

year

CO

2eq

conc

(pp

mv)

baseline 550mitigation A1B A2 B1 B2Climate action

Impact of a 75 year Convergence and Contraction global burden sharing Impact of a 75 year Convergence and Contraction global burden sharing

approach on the GHG emissions ceiling for various world regionsapproach on the GHG emissions ceiling for various world regions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

GH

G e

mis

ison

s re

lativ

e to

199

0 (1

990=

100)

202020302050

C&C75

Global development in energy use 1970-2100:Global development in energy use 1970-2100:

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1971

1980

1990

2000

2010

2016

2020

2022

2025

2030

2033

2037

2043

2047

2055

2065

2075

2085

2095

EJ

Baseline

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Biofuels

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1971

1980

1990

2000

2010

2016

2020

2022

2025

2030

2033

2037

2043

2047

2055

2065

2075

2085

2095

EJ

Climate action

Coal

Oil

Natural gas Biofuels

Global trend in CO2eq emissionsGlobal trend in CO2eq emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

Gto

n C

O2e

q

CO2-climate action CH4-climate action

N2O-climate action F-gases-climate action

CO2 baseline additional to climate action CH4 baseline additional to climate action

N2O baseline additional to climate action F-gases baseline additional to climate action

Baseline

Climate action

Focus on 2030: avoided COFocus on 2030: avoided CO22 emissions emissions

Climate action

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pro

ject

ed e

nerg

y-re

late

d C

O2

emis

sion

s (M

t) Transport

Services

Households

Industry

Energy Branch

Electricity and Steamproduction

CO2 Emission Climate action

Avoidable "baseline" emissions by sector:

0

20

40

60

80

100

NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3 PM10

Ind

ex (

year

200

0 =

100)

2000 2020 CAFE 2030 baseline 2030 LGEP 2030 LGEP-MFR

Change in emissions of air pollutants in the Change in emissions of air pollutants in the EU 25 region relative to 2000EU 25 region relative to 2000

Ancillary benefits of climate policy

Anthropogenic contribution to modeled grid-average PM2.5 concentrations (annual mean, µg/m3)

2000 2020 CAFE

2030 Climate Action

2030 Climate Action -

MFR

Percentage of total ecosystems area receiving nitrogen deposition above the critical loads

2000 2020 CAFE

2030 Climate Action - MFR

2030 Climate Action

Percentage of forest area receiving acid deposition above the critical loads

2000 2020 CAFE

2030 Climate Action - MFR

2030 Climate Action

Loss in statistical life expectancy that can be attributed to the anthropogenic contributions to PM2.5 (in months)

2000 2020 CAFE

2030 Climate Action - MFR

2030 Climate Action

Grid-average ozone concentrations in ppb.days expressed as SOMO35

2000 2020 CAFE

2030 Climate Action - MFR

2030 Climate Action

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

United K

ingdo

m (lon

don)

Finlan

d (hels

inki)

Denmark

(Cop

enha

gen)

Belgium (A

ntwerp

, Bru

ssel)

Poland (

Gdansk

, Kato

wice)

Portugal

(Lisb

on)

France

(Pari

s, M

arseil

le)

Czech

(Prag

ue)

German

y (Berl

in, Stut

gart)

Hungary

(Bud

apes

t)

Greece

(Athen

s, The

ssalonik

i)

Austria

(Graz

)

Italy (R

ome, M

ilan)

Spain (B

arcelo

na)

SOM

O-3

5 (p

pb.d

ays)

2000 2030-LGEP-CLE 2030-LGEP-MFR

Coverage:55 Million inhabitants

Ozone concentration in urban area’s: SOMO-35

SoEOR2005: Climate Change and SoEOR2005: Climate Change and Air Quality ConclusionsAir Quality Conclusions

Climate action scenario assumes GHG emissions to be reduced by 15-30 [20] % below 1990 levels by 2020 and 60-80 [65] % by 2050.

The analyses suggest that 40 % of the reductions could be achieved cost-effectively by actions outside the EU and that no fundamental transition in Europe’s energy system is needed

The domestic actions have significant ancillary benefits for air quality (yet to be quantified this year)

But to meet AQ objectives, (additional) air pollution policies remain necessary

SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005: CONCLUSIONS (II)SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005: CONCLUSIONS (II)

• SEP does initiate changes, but does not yet (2030) requires afundamental “transition” in the European energy system.

• A sustainability transition meeting all EU’s climate and energytargets appears to be feasible, but at significant costs (400Euro/household/year in 2030); there is not one optimal solution -> SEP variants.

• Integrated CC&AP policies can result in cost savings, avoidanceof trade-offs, and effective abatement of air pollutant and GHGemissions.

• A sustainability transition in Europe has to be viewed in a globalcontext.

• The costs for medium term GHG emissions reductions aresignificant dependent on the assumed economic growth, asshown by a lower economic growth variant.

Climate action

While such a transition can bring enormous benefits, it also While such a transition can bring enormous benefits, it also presents substantial challengespresents substantial challenges

• Benefits Decoupling of CO2 emissions from economic growth and reduced

European contribution to global climate change Reduced emissions of air pollutants Reduced energy import dependency (-20%) Employment in industrial and agricultural sectors selling biofuels

and clean and low energy technologies to Europe and the world

• Challenges Large changes required in the energy sector Difficult choices over controversial technologies such as nuclear

power and carbon capture and storage Potential for energy efficiency is well-known, but achieving energy

reductions in practice will require new policy approaches Costs may be small in relation to GDP, but are nevertheless large

in real terms

NederlandNederland

• Bij een gelijke koolstof tax zal NL, naar verwachting, achterblijven in binnenlandse CO2 reduktie vergeleken met het Europees gemiddelde (+2% versus -16% in 2030 tov Kyoto doelstelling)

• In combinatie met een Europees beleid voor hernieuwbare brandstoffen (2,5 Eurocent/Kwh in 2020 oplopend tot 5 Eurocent/Kwh in 2030) kan de reduktie oplopen tot -7% voor NL en -23% voor EU25.

• Door Europees klimaat beleid kunnen aanzienlijke co-benefits voor luchtkwaliteit worden gerealiseerd (inclusief financiele voordelen).

SoEOR2005: flow chart of models usedSoEOR2005: flow chart of models used

PRIMES

Economy

AEA-T model

CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6 (Europe)

CO2 (Europe)

Transport Agriculture

Regional concen-tration:SO2, NO, NH3, PM, O3

POLES

IMAGE

TIMER FAIR

WaterGap

Energy Price

CO2 Permit Price

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

Sinks

EMEPOFIS

AQ impacts

Urban conc. PM, NO2, O3

Emissions

OPSM

Street increments

CC impacts

GEM-E3, PROMETHEUS

RAINS

MERLIN

COPERT III, TREMOVE, TREND

Burden sharing regimes, impact for EU-27Burden sharing regimes, impact for EU-27

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Brazilian prop Preferencescore

Jacoby rule C&C 2050 Multi stage-v1

Multi stage-v3

C&C 2075 C&C 2100 Average

Inde

x co

mpa

red

to 1

990

202020302050

1990=100

Permit prices assumedPermit prices assumed

CAFE-KR SEP SEP-LE SEP SEP-LEAssumed permit price at EU-level1 Assumed global

permit priceYear

Euro (2000)/ton CO2

Low medium High2010 6 12 18 12 6 5 22015 8 16 24 20 6 6 12020 10 20 30 30 20 25 152025 10 20 30 50 40 45 352030 10 20 30 65 55 60 502040 - - - 105 802050 - - - 115 952075 - - - 165 1052100 - - - 190 105

Climate action Climate action

Past and projected Past and projected prices of fossil fuels and prices of fossil fuels and electricity 1970-2050electricity 1970-2050

OECD End-use costs (including tax) 1971-2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Eu

ro(2

000)

/Gj

Coal-industrial

Oil-transport

Electricity-residential

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

$(19

99)/

bar

rel s

tart

of

year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Pri

ces

$(19

99)/

GJ

Oil

Coal

Gas

Climate action

Fossil prices prices baseline and climate action 1970-2050Left axis oil prices per barrel, right axis gas and coal prices per GJ

Climate action

Costs (% of GDP) for various world regions to achieve climate change Costs (% of GDP) for various world regions to achieve climate change targets 2020-2100 under the climate action scenario. targets 2020-2100 under the climate action scenario.

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year

Cos

ts (

% o

f G

DP

)

Latin-America

USA & Canada

Enlarged EU

SE & E-Asia (e.g. China)

S-Asia (e.g. India)

Africa

Climate action scenario: Netherlands versus EU-15Climate action scenario: Netherlands versus EU-15

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

NL EU15 NL EU15 NL EU15 NL NL NL EU15

2000 2010 2020 2030

Baseline Climate action

CO2 non-CO2CO2 CO2

+ renewables Climate action Nuclear

+ -

Changes in the fuel mix of EU-25 gross inland energy Changes in the fuel mix of EU-25 gross inland energy consumption compared to the baseline in 2030consumption compared to the baseline in 2030

-100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%

Solids

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

Renewable energyforms

Change in gross inland energy consumption compared to baseline (in 2030)

Climate action

Climate action renewables

Climate action nuclear phase out

Climate action nuclear accelerated

Emission control costs EU-25 billion Euro/year

Climate change benefit

Air pollutant land-abatement cost; baseline compared to Climate action

EU 25

costs in billion €/year

Pollutant 2000 2020 2030 

  CLE baselineClimate

action

Climate action-

MFR

SO2 11,4 12,9 16,0 12 15

NOx 2 2,4 3,1 2 7,9

VOC 0,4 1,7 1,8 1,8 4

NH3 2 2,2 2,2 2,1 17,6

PM 10 6,4 6,5 7,4 5,5 17,6

Mobile 7,7 40,2 50,5 47,7 61,4

Total 30 66 81 71 123