edward_isc resentation_final
TRANSCRIPT
Adaptation to climate change using Analytical Hierarchy Processes
3rd International Sustainability Conference, Basel University, Switzerland
Edward Saja Sanneh*, Allen H. Hu, Chia-Wei Hsu and Momodou Njie Institute of Environmental Engineering and Management
National Taipei University of TechnologyE-mail: [email protected]
Outline
Introduction
Impact of Climate Change
Literature Review Methodology
FAHP
Results and Discussion Conclusion
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Climate change• Temperature rise• Sea-level rise• Precipitation change• Droughts and floods
Impacts on human and natural systems
• Food and water resources• Ecosystem and biodiversity• Human settlements• Human health
Socio-economic development paths• Economic growth• Technology• Population• Governance
Emissions and concentrations
• Greenhouse gases• Aerosols
Adaptation
Adaptation
Miti
gatio
n
Climate Change and Adaptation
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Location map of The Gambia
Study Area
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Gambia
The IPCC (2007) projects - in Sub-Saharan Africa, warming is expected to be greater than the global average and in parts of the region rainfall will decline
These anticipated climate changes pose great threats to food and water security, public health, natural resources, and biodiversity (McCarthyet al., 2001)
http://carbon-based-ghg.blogspot.tw/2007/12/sub-suharan-africa-bears-brunt-of.html
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Introduction
Impact of Climate Change in the Gambia July-August-September (JAS) rainfall less than 800mm on
average has dramatically increased from 36 to 96 percent of the national territory since 1965
Climate records also reveal an increase of 0.40 degrees centigrade per decade or higher in the average minimum monthly temperatures across the country
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Introduction
The area with average JAS rainfall less than 800mm has increased from 36 per cent to 93 per cent since 1965
Impact of Climate Change
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Spatial patterns and temporal changes in rainfall of Gambia in the last sixty years
Change in rainfall statistics at Yundum (16º35'W, 13º27'N), Janjangbureh (14º46'W, 13º32'N) and Basse (14º13'W, 13º19'N)
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Spatial patterns and temporal changes in rainfall of Gambia in the last sixty yearsImpact of Climate Change
Showing respectively increases of 0.67 and 0.40 degree Celsius per decade in the average minimum monthly temperatures Line slopes (i.e. rate of change) verified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
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Trends in minimum temperature of Gambia in the past 40 yearsImpact of Climate Change
Erosion of beaches and potential breaching of barrier dunes on the Atlantic seaboard The degree of flooding will be greater in coastal areas (Dr. Malanding S. Jaiteh using Gambia 50000 GIS Database
2003 and ArcGIS Spatial Analysis Extension)
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Area liable to permanent flooding in Gambia from a 100 cm sea level rise scenario
Impact of Climate Change
Authors Year Title
Roshan et al. 2010 Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions
Laukkonen et al. 2009 Combining climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at the local level
Twomlow et al. 2008 Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability due to climatic change in Africa
IPCC 2007Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
Smit and Wandel 2006 Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability.
Eakin 2005 Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico
Water/Africa et al.2004 The Africa water vision for 2025 : equitable and sustainable use of water for socioeconomic development
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Literature Review
Authors Year TitleBank et al 2003 Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation
Guranko et al. 2003 Introduction to the World Bank insurance practice: key lessons learned and the road ahead
Azar and Schneider 2003 Are the economic costs of non-stabilizing the atmosphere prohibitive?
Smit and Pilifosova 2001 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity
McCarthy et al. 2001 Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityFAO 2001 The state of food insecurity in the world
IPCC 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information relevant to interpreting
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Literature Review
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National Adaptation Program of Action For The Gambia
Methodology- Evaluation Framework
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This study used FAHP, a generic hierarchy model for assessing the relative importance to determine prioritization of measures and approaches to climate change adaptation discussed in Gambia’s NAPA
The authors identified aspects that threaten the livelihood of communities through the weight of sectors discussed in the NAPA of the Gambia
Overall, 25 measures of climate change adaptation were determined and categorized into five main aspects
Methodology- FAHP
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Names DepartmentMr. Bernard Gomez Department of Water Resources/ NAPA Project CoordinatorMr. Momodou Sarr National Environment Agency/ GEF Operational Focal PointDr. Almamy Camara Department of Parks & Wildlife Management/ UNCBD Focal PointDr. Momodou Njie Blue Gold SolutionsMr. Lamin Kambi Department of Livestock ServicesMr. Momodou Sowe Department of Water ResourcesMr. Ebrima Ceesay Department of Agricultural ServicesMr. Alpha Omar Jallow Department of Parks and Wild life ManagementMr. Samba Conteh Department of State for HealthMr. Momodou Njie Department of State for Forestry and the EnvironmentMr. Kemo Ceesay Gambia Renewable Energy OfficeMr. Amadou Saine Department of Fisheries
Expert List for FAHP
Suppose you would like to choose between Item A and Item B, the one you like better in comparison with the other. Making a relative scale to measure how much you like the item on the left compared to the item on the right, shows as follows:
(a)
(b)
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Methodology FAHP
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(a)
Membership function of a triangular fuzzy number
Membership function of linguistic variables for criteria comparison
(b)
Methodology FAHP
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Results and DiscussionsThe study shows health as the highest priority area adaptation follow by forestry, water, energy and food
The overall adaptive capacity of Africa is low due to poverty, low educational levels, the weakening of social safety nets, high morbidity rates and the prevalence of severe illnesses (Ifejika Speranza et al., 2008)
Adaptation is likely to play a key role in meeting the Millennium Development Goals, poverty reduction, and sustainable development
http://eastern-uganda-environment.blogspot.tw/
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Results and Discussions
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23947 http://www.idrc.ca/EN/Programs/
Adaptation options/activities developed by researchers are not entirely new and call for wider deployment/application
Recognizing the priority areas for adaptation to climate change is important because of the uncertainties of current weather, climatic outcomes and future climate change impacts
Relatively few scientists have addressed cultural factors, such as people’s perceptions of climate change in Africa, which can nevertheless be quite relevant in the decision-making process
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Results and Discussions
The anticipated effects of climate change pose great threats to food, water security, public health, natural resources and biodiversity
Better understanding of how poverty in general is affected by climate change is needed to influence all efforts to adapt to climate change.
http://ifrtd.gn.apc.org/en/about/Vision-Mission.php
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/exploringclimatechange/takeaction/ethics.asp
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Conclusions
The NAPA of the Gambia was the basis in formulating the FAHP model of this study, implying recognition of priority approaches for sustainability
The application of FAHP can be used to initiate policy relating to climate change adaptation.
The authors recommend that the creation of a national climate policy would be a big step towards enhancing climate change adaptation
http://owni.eu/tag/ecology/ http://theconversation.edu.au http://www.deepakchopra.com/blog/view/756/global_warming_and_the_meaning_of_doom
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Conclusions
Edward Saja SannehNational Taipei University of Technology
E-mail: [email protected]
Thank You All For Your Kind Attention
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