edora: european development opportunities for rural areas espon 2013 programme: first results dg...
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EDORA:European Development Opportunities
for Rural Areas
ESPON 2013 Programme: First ResultsDG Regio Open Day Brussels, 7th October 2009
Andrew Copus Centre for Remote and Rural Studies
The EDORA Consortium
• UHI Millennium Institute, Inverness• NORDREGIO, Stockholm• University of Newcastle• University of Valencia• University of Patras• TEAGASC, Dublin• University of Gloucester• University of Ljubljana• Von Thunen Institute, Braunschweig• BABF, Vienna• Dortmund University• Polish Academy of Sciences• Hungarian Academy of Sciences• Higher Institute of Agronomy, Lisbon• Scottish Agricultural College• International Organization for Migration, Warsaw
The EDORA Project Objectives(According to the Specification)
…to describe the main processes of change which are resulting in the increasing differentiation of rural areas.
…to identify development opportunities and constraints for different kinds of rural areas…
…to consider how such knowledge can be translated into guiding principles to support the development of appropriate cohesion policy.
Outline of Presentation:
1. General approach and structure of EDORA
2. Highlights from the Conceptual Phase – Understanding/characterising the process of rural change.
3. Highlight from the Empirical Phase – the EDORA Typology
4. Some policy issues emerging from the work so far…
The EDORA Approach
• A very wide-ranging task…• Rural data availability is strongly influenced by the
agrarian rural development tradition.• Being driven by the data availability risks “slipping
into well-trodden paths…” • A hybrid “deductive/inductive” approach – first
establish territorial concepts and theory, then empirical analysis and assessing policy implications.
• Work so far has been mainly conceptual and empirical… have not yet considered policy implications in any detail.
EDORA Project Structure
Typology
Policy Narratives Cohesion Policy Implications and Potential for TerritorialCo-operation
Future PerspectivesExemplar Regions
Grand Narratives of Rural Change
Review of literature:-Rural demography-Rural employment-Rural business development-R-U relationships-Cultural heritage-Access to services-Institutional capacity-Climate change-Farm structural change
Available Indicators
Database and Country Profiles
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Drivers - Opportunities - Constraints
PROCESSES OF RURAL CHANGE Economic PoliticalSocial
Environ-mental
Economic processes:
• Declining relative importance of agriculture,
• Refocusing of agriculture (multifunctionality, ecological modernisation, post-productivism etc).
• Opportunities presented by the “Consumption Countryside”.
• Semi-subsistence micro-farms as a social buffer (esp. in NMS12)
• Labour market segmentation – human capital issues.
• Rise of diversified New Rural Economy (NRE), especially in accessible areas.
• Importance of extra-local networks in growth and innovation.
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Drivers - Opportunities - Constraints
PROCESSES OF RURAL CHANGE Economic PoliticalSocial
Environ-mental
Social Processes:
• R-U Migration, counter-urbanisation, ageing.
• “New Rurality” in accessible rural areas, prosperous, urban characteristics…
• Service provision issues in remote and sparsely populated areas.
• Contrasting “live-work” models of NRE and NMS.
• Decline of traditional institutions and rise of individualism.
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Drivers - Opportunities - Constraints
PROCESSES OF RURAL CHANGE Economic PoliticalSocial
Environ-mental
Environmental Processes:
• Maintenance and commodification of the rural environment…
•Effects of climate change.
•Effects of anticipation of C. C. and mitigation efforts
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Drivers - Opportunities - Constraints
PROCESSES OF RURAL CHANGE Economic PoliticalSocial
Environ-mental
Political Processes:
• From Government to Governance, and the “Project State”.
• Changing welfare state systems, privatisation, fiscal pressures…
• Innovation strategies, emphasis on potential and competitiveness, (rather than compensation or support for weakness).
• Localism v central control (neo-endogenous) and managerial approaches.
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Drivers - Opportunities - Constraints
PROCESSES OF RURAL CHANGE Economic PoliticalSocial
Environ-mental
CONNEXITY
Urban-Rural
Agri-Centric
Economic Competit., Global Capital
META -NARRATIVES
Overarching theme of increasing “CONNEXITY” (Mulgan) – “network society”, “relational space”, “multi-level governance”. Freedom v interdependence.
1. Agri-centric narrative (post-productivism, duality, mutifunctionality etc.
2. Urban-rural (core-periphery) narrative.
3. Economic competitiveness and global capital penetration…
The Conceptual Phase: Understanding Rural Change
Interaction:(Rural-Urban,Local-Global)
Assets(Agglomeration or Place Shaping?)
KEY ISSUES DETERMININGLOCAL "PATH OF CHANGE"
CONNEXITY
Urban-Rural
Agri-Centric
Economic Competit., Global Capital
META -NARRATIVES
Two Key Issues Determining Local Path of Rural Change:
• Nature of Interaction (R - U or Local - Global?)
• Available regional assets agglomeration or “place shaping”
The Empirical Phase: The EDORA Typology
• Wished to review explanatory potential of the Dijkstra-Poelman version of the OECD typology.
• Explore potential to elaborate it; add structure and performance aspects to U-R dimension.
• Elaborated typology might then serve as a framework for analysis of recent trends, consideration of future perspectives, and policy implications.
N.B. It cannot be a typology of Rural Areas – two reasons:(a)Rural areas do not function separately from adjacent
urban areas – they are connected by a dense web of interactions.
(b)Smallest practicable data units are NUTS 3(2), most of these contain sizable towns/cities.
It is a typology of Intermediate and Predominantly Rural Regions.
The Empirical Phase: The EDORA Typology
• Typology should help us to understand the process of regional differentiation.
• Methodology and structure of the typology should not be driven by data availability or agrarian RD traditions.
• Nevertheless, need to work within the limits set by data availability.
• “Meta-Narratives” identified by EDORA highlighted various dimensions of change, only some of them can be “mapped” with existing data, e.g.:– commodification – “consumption countryside”– economic diversification – “restructuring”
The Empirical Phase: The EDORA Typology
…more of a three-dimensional framework for analysis, rather than a one-dimensional classification.
The three dimensions are:• Urban-Rural
(remote/accessible)• Accumulation –
Depletion (performance).
• Economic structure (diversification).
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Roma
Riga
Oslo
Bern
Wien
Kyiv
Vaduz
Paris
Praha
Minsk
Tounis
Lisboa
Skopje
Zagreb
Ankara
Madrid
Tirana
Sofiya
London Berlin
Dublin
Athinai
Tallinn
Nicosia
Beograd
Vilnius
Pristina
Ar Ribat
Valletta
Kishinev
Sarajevo
Helsinki
Budapest
Warszawa
Podgorica
El-Jazair
Ljubljana
Stockholm
Reykjavik
København
Bucuresti
Amsterdam
Bratislava
Luxembourg
Bruxelles/Brussel
Acores
Guyane
Madeira
Réunion
Canarias
MartiniqueGuadeloupe
Note:
This map shows the unweighted mean of the following indicators:(i) Annual rate of net migration(ii) Per Capita GDP (in PPS)(iii) Annual rate of change in GDP (excluding regions where GDPper capita is below NUTS 3 average)(iv) Annual percentage change in total employment(v) Average unemployment rate
Accumulation - Depletion Scores
NUTS 3
Unweighted Mean of Z Scores
>-1
-0.99 - -0.50
-0.49 - 0.00
0.01 - 0.50
0.51 - 1.00
>1
PU Regions
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Roma
Riga
Oslo
Bern
Wien
Kyiv
Vaduz
Paris
Praha
Minsk
Tounis
Lisboa
Skopje
Zagreb
Ankara
Madrid
Tirana
Sofiya
London Berlin
Dublin
Athinai
Tallinn
Nicosia
Beograd
Vilnius
Pristina
Ar Ribat
Valletta
Kishinev
Sarajevo
Helsinki
Budapest
Warszawa
Podgorica
El-Jazair
Ljubljana
Stockholm
Reykjavik
København
Bucuresti
Amsterdam
Bratislava
Luxembourg
Bruxelles/Brussel
Acores
Guyane
Madeira
Réunion
Canarias
MartiniqueGuadeloupe
Typology of Intermediate and Predominantly Rural AreasEDORA Project September 2009
NUTS 3
TYPES
PU Regions
Agrarian
Consumption Countryside
Diversified (Strong Secondary Sector)
Diversified (Strong Private Services Sector)
No data available
The Empirical Phase: The EDORA Typology
“Agrarian” and “Consumption Countryside” regions cover about 45% of the total area of the EU27, but only 19% of the population and 12% of the GDP. By contrast the diversified regions cover almost 50% of the area, 37% of the population and 32% of GDP.
Summary Statistics EDORA Typology (EU27)Type % of Regions % of Area % of Population % of GDPPU 32.4 8.5 44.3 56.0Agrarian 15.0 23.5 12.4 5.7Consumption Countryside 12.9 20.6 7.0 6.7Diversified (Secondary) 15.9 19.3 12.8 10.2Diversified (Market Services) 23.9 28.1 23.5 21.5
Looking ahead to the Policy Phase: Some Key Issues to Consider
• Rural-urban – still a meaningful dichotomy in a policy context?• How can rural-urban linkages be utilised to drive rural
development?• Are cohesion and competiveness objectives compatible in a rural
context?• If development policy focuses on potential what future do rural
regions with very limited potential have…? Can potential be created?
• How can policy design and implementation better accommodate rural complexity/heterogeneity?
• How can we achieve better synergy between EU policies in a rural context?
• Can EU rural policies better take account of national context, policy traditions, etc.
• How do we benchmark regions and how do we measure “success”.
Thank you for your attention…. [email protected]