ed miller poker strategy columns from cardplayer magazine, october 2007 to december 2008
DESCRIPTION
Poker strategy columns written by Ed Miller aka Noted Poker Authority -- mostly small stakes no-limit holdem.TRANSCRIPT
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The Biggest No-Limit Hold'em MythBig stacks can 'bully' the table, by Ed Miller | Published: Oct 24, 2007
Live $1-$2 and $2-$5 no-limit hold'em cash games can, for many
players, be some of the most lucrative games in the cardroom. Several
years ago, I was a committed limit player (and even wrote a couple of
books about it), but nowadays I'm sold on no-limit. It's great because, at
least at the low levels, learning a winning strategy isn't too difficult. And
furthermore, a wide array of approaches can win, as long as you play
accurately and with discipline. My Card Player columns will focus on
teaching you how to beat this great game.
"What a bully!" the big blind said lightheartedly as he threw in his cards.
"That's just the way the big stack is supposed to play," mused his friend
next to him.
They were talking about me. I had just stolen the blinds in a $2-$5 no-
limit hold'em game. After a series of fortunate events, I had run my stack
up from the maximum buy-in of $500 to around $1,300, enough to have
everyone at the table comfortably covered.
The big blind and his friend had unwittingly repeated what I consider to
be the biggest no-limit hold'em myth: Big stacks can "bully" the table,
and short stacks have to sit and take it. I hear this idea everywhere -
from TV commentators, from table coaches, and even in a book or two.
I once overheard someone counsel a friend not to buy into a $10-$25
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game because he had only $2,000 that day to play with. (He had a lot
more in his bankroll.) "The big stacks will eat you alive. You gotta have
at least five dimes to play that game. You might as well take your two
dimes and burn it. If you can't buy in full, don't buy in at all. You gotta
give yourself a fighting chance."
They're all wrong. Big stacks don't hold any inherent advantage over
small stacks. Just because you cover everyone doesn't mean you have
any special mathematical privilege to bully the table. And if you try to do
so against astute opponents, you might find yourself the one busted by
the end of the night.
Now, I'm talking about cash games here, not tournaments. In
tournaments, the "bullying" concept has some merit, though it's hardly
what some people would have you believe. In cash games, however, it's
utter hogwash. A deep stack holds no inherent advantage whatsoever
over shorter stacks - none.
Let's see why. Let's say you and I are playing heads-up $2-$5. We each
have $3,000 in our pockets. You buy $3,000 worth of chips. I buy $300
and leave the rest in my pocket. Naturally, we're playing with the table-
stakes rule, so once I've bet my entire $300 on a hand, we're all in and
there's no further betting. That means that the most you can bet on any
hand is $300, the same as me. Even though your stack is 10 times the
size of mine, when we play a hand, all of your excess money sits
harmlessly unused, just like the money in my pocket.
Strategically, it's completely irrelevant that you have a big stack and I
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have a small one. If you try to "bully" me by raising a lot with weak
hands, I can punish you by reraising more often with better hands. If you
want to avoid steadily losing your big stack over time, you'll have to put
on the brakes and play a more "normal" strategy.
"Sure," you might say, "that's obvious. If we both start with $3,000 and
you buy in for $300, it doesn't matter on the first hand whether I buy in
for $300 and keep the rest in my pocket or if I buy in for $3,000. Either
way, we're playing for $300. But what happens over time? You're a lot
more likely to bust out than I am."
That's true. If we both play equally well (which is not likely if you waste
your money trying to bully me), I'm 10 times more likely to lose my $300
than you are to lose your $3,000. Fortunately, I have 10 $300 buy-ins,
while you have only one $3,000 buy-in. If I rebuy for $300 every time I
go broke and we play until one of us has all the money, we both have an
equal shot. The fact that I've played the short stack throughout doesn't
affect my chances one bit.
Indeed, if the rules would allow it, I could buy in for just the $5 big blind
every time and still have totally equal chances. All you could do with
your mighty stack is call my big blind and watch the boardcards
helplessly.
So, what's the deal? Why does everyone talk about big stacks bullying
and short stacks getting bullied? In cash games, it's primarily a
psychological thing. Typically, someone gets a big stack by winning a
few big hands in a row. Naturally, it can be a bit intimidating to watch
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one of your opponents drag a few monster pots and sit in front of a mini-
Everest of chips. You start thinking that your chips might be the next
addition to the mountain.
Don't think that! It's not true. Maybe your opponent is a great player, but
chances are that he mostly just ran good for a few hands. You have
nothing to be afraid of, and your opponent's big stack confers no
advantage whatsoever. Don't buy in to the myth. If you have $200, it
doesn't hurt you at all if your opponents have $2,000 or even $20,000.
You're playing for $200, and when your opponents play against you,
that's what they're playing for, also.
If you're the one with the big stack, you don't have a mathematical
advantage, but you may have a psychological one. I've noticed that
after I build a big stack in a cash game, some players start to play
scared against me. Where they might have check-raised a good hand or
tried a bluff against me before, they'll play more cautiously now. You can
take advantage of the timid play by - bullying. But always remember,
you aren't bullying because you have a bigger stack; you're bullying
because your opponents are afraid of you.
So, that's it, the biggest no-limit hold'em myth. Go ahead and buy in for
whatever you desire. Those sharks with deep stacks aren't going to get
the best of you. In fact, you may well be getting the best of the sharks,
because while it's not true that big stacks have an inherent advantage
over short stacks, the opposite sometimes is true! You actually could
give yourself an edge merely by buying in short. I'll show you how it
works in the next issue.
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Ed will personally answer your questions at his online poker advice
column, www.notedpokerauthority.com. He has authored four books on poker, most recently Professional No-Limit Hold'em: Volume 1.
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The Virtues of Playing the Short StackTwo major advantagesby Ed Miller | Published: Nov 13, 2007
In the last issue, I tackled the biggest no-limit hold'em myth: Big stacks
can bully small stacks to gain an advantage. Not only is it not true, small
stacks can actually gain an edge over big stacks! Before I tell you how,
let's revisit the biggest myth.
It's very common to hear people talking about big stacks "bullying" small
stacks, usually by playing loosely preflop and raising a lot.
Unfortunately, in a cash game, this tactic doesn't actually offer any edge
to the big stack, since the extra chips don't play. That is, if you have
$100 and I have $1,000, we'll be all in after the first $100, and my
remaining $900 plays no role whatsoever in the hand. I could put that
extra $900 in my pocket, and it wouldn't help (or hurt) you at all.
But if you have $100 and everyone else at the table has $1,000, you
actually have an advantage over your opponents. In fact, you have two
major advantages.
Avoiding Mixed-Stack PlayMixed-stack play is one of the most complex aspects of no-limit hold'em.
Strategy can change dramatically due to different stack sizes. If you are
playing $1-$2 blinds, with a given hand you might push all in with a $20
stack, just call with a $200 stack, and perhaps raise (but not all in) with
a $1,000 stack. When your opponents in a hand have very different
stack sizes (that is, you're playing against mixed stacks), your best play
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could be different against each of them due to their different stack sizes.
For instance, let's say that you have $500 in a $1-$2 game. A tight
player under the gun goes all in for $20. A weak player with $400 calls next. You're on the button with the 2 2 . What should you do? I'd call, since I might flop a set and win a nice pot off the weak player. But if
the weak player had folded instead, I'd fold, since I'd likely be either
about even money (against overcards) or a big underdog (against a
bigger pair), and I'd probably be taking the worst of it alone against the
all-in player.
Unfortunately, even with the weak player in the pot, I'm still taking the
worst of it against the all-in player. The weak player's call doesn't
change the fact that I have to beat the tight player to win the $63 main
pot. I'm calling despite the all-in player, because I think the chance of
winning a big pot off the weak player is worth it. Because of the mixed
stack sizes, I have no perfect play. If I want to win money off the deep
stack, I have to cede equity to the short stack.
Now put yourself in the shoes of the tight all-in player. Let's say that you have the Q Q . You just got called by not one, but two players as a big favorite. You have a great chance to triple up. And you got called by
the second player only because his stack was a lot deeper than yours. If
he had had only $20, also, he would have folded. He called only
because he and the weak player were much deeper than you.
Playing against mixed stacks complicates your decision-making and
forces you to take compromises. Playing short allows you to face a
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uniform stack size (yours), and enables you to benefit when your
opponents face mixed-stack situations.
Fold Equity Without RiskFold equity is the value you get from opponents who fold. The typical
way to generate fold equity is to bet or raise. Your opponents will
sometimes fold, and your chances to win the pot improve. This fold
equity comes at a risk, however, since you could lose whatever amount
you bet. When you're a short stack, though, sometimes you can get fold
equity without having to risk anything.
Let's say that you're playing a $1-$2 game, you have a $20 stack, and you have the J J . Two players, each with a $500 stack, limp in to you, and you push all in. They both call. The flop comes A 9 6 . (Doesn't an ace always seem to come?) Your opponents both check.
The turn is the 10 . One player bets $20, and the other folds. The riveris the K . Your opponent shows the Q 10 , and your jacks hold up.
Then, the other player starts to complain: "Why'd you have to bet? I had
a king! I would have won." Because your opponent bet the turn for you,
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and your other opponent folded, you won a pot that you otherwise would
have lost. That bet carried fold equity, not just for the bettor, but also for
you. But unlike the bettor, you didn't have to risk anything to get the fold
equity. It came automatically.
If everyone had started the hand with $20, you would have lost the pot.
Because your opponents had extra money, however, you turned a loss
into a win. That's the second advantage of having the short stack at the
table; you can gain fold equity without risk.
"But," you might say, "having a short stack means I can't push anyone
off a hand. Maybe I get fold equity for free sometimes, but I also can't
generate fold equity when I want it because I don't have enough to bet."
That's true. But it doesn't invalidate either advantage of being the short
stack at the table. It's just a result of what I said at the beginning, that
different stack sizes require different strategies. You have a very
different set of options at your disposal with $20 in a $1-$2 game than
with $200. All I'm saying is that if you're going to buy in for $20, you're
generally better off if your opponents all have $200 than if they have
$20. And likewise, if you're going to buy in for $200, you're generally
better off if your opponents all have $2,000 than if they have $200.
The peddlers of the biggest myth will tell you that having a shorter stack
than everyone else puts you at a disadvantage. Not only are they
wrong, but the opposite is true. No matter what stack size you play, you
enjoy advantages when your opponents play much deeper stacks.
Next issue, I'll teach you how I use some of these ideas to beat real no-
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limit hold'em games.
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Sizing Up a GameDeveloping a ritual when entering a gameby Ed Miller | Published: Nov 27, 2007
Many students want to know how I size up a game. Once the
brushperson assigns me a table and a seat, what do I do then? How
much do I buy in for? What's my strategy on the first few hands? What
am I looking for? How do I use those initial moments to gain an
advantage that will last throughout the session? I'll share with you how I
approach these initial decisions. Other players I know do things
completely differently, so know that my way isn't the only way. But even
if you do things differently, you might find it useful to know how other
people approach the game.
I beat no-limit hold'em games by outthinking my opponents. In order to
do that, I need two things: knowledge of their weaknesses and a
strategy to exploit them. Without those two, I can't outthink anyone, and
I'm stuck relying on fundamentals to beat the game. Over time, solid
fundamentals will win, but a custom-tailored exploitative strategy will win
faster and better.
When I first sit in a game, I want to learn about my opponents as quickly
as possible. To that end, I generally buy in for about half of the
maximum. For instance, in a $2-$5 game, I'll often buy in for $300 rather
than the $500 maximum. In previous columns I pointed out that playing
a shorter stack than your opponents bestows a couple of inherent
advantages. So, when I first sit down in a game, while I still know
relatively little about my opponents, I harness those advantages by
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playing short. Usually after an orbit or two, I top-up my stack to the table
maximum. But occasionally if I think I'm better off playing short, I won't
buy more. Buying in for less than the maximum gives you flexibility:
Before any hand you can always buy more chips, but you can never
take chips off the table.
I also play tight. I personally find that I'm more observant when I'm not in
a hand than when I am. Perhaps the emotional involvement clouds my
thinking, but my hand reading is sharper and my strategic thinking is
cleverer when my money isn't on the line. So unless I get dealt
something obviously worth playing, I sit out the first 10 hands or so and
let my brain focus totally on profiling my opponents and formulating
strategies.
What sorts of things am I looking for? First, I want to know what the
"standard" preflop raise size is and how often people call it. In online
games, initial preflop raises generally stay fairly small, but live games
frequently will have their own standard size that can range from three
times the big blind to 10 times or even more. (I've played in $1-$2
games in which players were routinely opening for $25 or $30.) I don't
always stick to the standard raise - not at all, in fact - but I need to know
what the other players expect and what looks ordinary and out-of-the-
ordinary to them. I also want to know how many players call preflop
raises. Let's say two players limp in a $2-$5 game, and then someone
makes it $30. Are those limpers likely to call the raise or fold? Should
the raiser expect one opponent or four? These observations help me to
determine what hands I'll raise preflop and how big a raise I'll make.
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Next, I'll look for a player who seems to be playing very loosely. If
someone limps in and calls a raise more than once, I'll begin to focus on
him. Not only are loose opponents very profitable, but also since they
enter so many pots, it's likely that I'll play hands against them.
When I focus on a player, I try to develop a model for his post-flop
decision-making. Just because someone is loose preflop doesn't mean
he'll be loose throughout the hand. Some players are quite the opposite,
in fact; they are happy to see the flop for a raise or reraise with a weak
hand, but reluctant to play for big post-flop bets without a monster.
That's my favorite kind of opponent, so I'm always delighted to see that
pattern. I'll suspect such a player if I see him call a few preflop raises,
but then fold to flop or turn continuation-bets.
Some loose players aren't so obliging. If they aren't folding, I try to figure
out what sorts of hands they're calling with. Do they call the flop
automatically, even if it seems they've missed? Do they call outsized
bets with draws? (Just recently, within my first 10 hands at the table, I
saw a loose player call a $900 all-in bet on the turn in a $200 pot with
just a flush draw. Naturally, he got there on the river.)
I also look for tricky or aggressive players. When your opponents are
docile, waiting for strong hands to make big bets or raises, you can get
away with a lot of shenanigans. For instance, if it looks like no one
wants a $40 pot, you can bluff only $5 or $10, saving considerable
money when you get called. Or if you have a decent top pair but don't
want to face a big bet, you can make a smallish value-bet, confident that
you'll be raised only by better hands and called by the ones you beat.
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These shortcut plays can turbocharge your win rate in a soft $1-$2 or
$2-$5 game.
Against aggressive players, however, they can backfire. Tricky players
will sniff out your weakness and pressure you with bluffs and thin value-
raises. So I try to figure out which players won't punish me for "getting
out of line," and which ones might, and I don't use the shortcuts against
the dangerous players.
That's my ritual when I begin a game. I buy in short, knowing that I can
always buy more chips but can't take chips off the table. I throw away
most of my early hands, and I spend my mental energy on identifying
game conditions (especially how much people are raising preflop and
how often they're calling) and profiling a few interesting-looking players.
If someone seems particularly loose, I'll watch his post-flop play and try
to develop a model for how he makes decisions. Then I'll tailor my
strategy to exploit his mistakes. All the while I'm on the lookout for
dangerous players who might prevent me from using some of my more
obvious ploys.
In my next few columns, I'll put these ideas into practice, choosing somehypothetical game conditions and explaining how I'd react to them.
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A Foolproof Strategy for Wild GamesBuy in a little shorter and get your money in early with good handsby Ed Miller | Published: Dec 05, 2007
Recently I was in a crazy $2-$5 no-limit hold'em game. I could tell it was
a crazy game even before I watched one hand. The maximum buy-in
was $500, but at least $8,000 was on the table. Four players each had
more than $1,500. Either the game had been going with the same
lineup for a very long time or people were playing a lot of all-in pots,
sloshing money around to one another (and rebuying over and over).
While not completely reliable, the amount of money on the table is a
reasonable indicator of how aggressive the game is. If all of the stacks
are short and medium, expect a quiet, perhaps even weak-tight game. If
everyone is deep, you probably should expect fireworks. If one player is
really deep and everyone else has a normal-size stack, there's a good
chance the deep player is loose and aggressive. It's not always the case
- he could be deep just because he got really lucky or because he's
been glued to the seat for 48 hours (look for 32-ounce coffee cups and
bloodshot eyes) - but loose-aggressive players are the most likely ones
to build deep stacks in a game with a maximum buy-in.
Back to my crazy $2-$5 game. Usually I would buy in for the maximum,
$500, to give myself the best chance to win a big pot. But I wanted to try
out a strategy that I consider foolproof for beating crazy no-limit games.
I bought in for $300, 60 big blinds. Last issue, I said that I often buy in
for around that much to scope out a game. After all, I can buy more
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chips before any hand, but I can never take money off the table.
But this buy-in was a little different, because the foolproof strategy relies
on a short buy-in in order for it to work. In a crazy game, many players
will play very loosely preflop, even for a raise. After watching a few
hands (and after losing my first buy-in right off the bat with pocket jacks
against 6-5 on a 6-5-2 flop), I saw that the "standard" preflop raise at the
table was to $30-$40, and, typically, between three and six people
would call it. So, a typical hand would see five or six players to the flop
for around $150 - a crazy game, indeed.
Naturally, if five or six players are seeing every flop, their standards are
none too high. Many players were playing (for raises) any two suited
cards, nonsuited connectors, and hands like K-7 offsuit. Now, if
everyone at the table has $2,000 in front of him, and if everyone is
playing loose like this, the low standards don't actually hurt anyone. To
get an advantage in poker (or to get taken advantage of), someone
needs to adjust his strategy to exploit the weaknesses. If no one is
taking advantage of it, playing loose is harmless.
But the foolproof strategy is designed to take advantage of it. First, you
don't have $2,000 in front of you. You have only $300, making the $30
preflop bet a sizable 10 percent of your stack. And, by the elegant
symmetry of the table-stakes rule, it's also 10 percent of all of your
opponents' stacks when they're playing against you. (Remember, their
extra money is irrelevant when they're playing against you. It's as if it
weren't even on the table.)
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Playing K-7 offsuit for 1 percent of the stacks can work out fine. Playing
it for 10 percent is a recipe for disaster. They simply can't outflop or
outplay you often enough to make up for building such a big pot with
such a stinker of a hand.
So, what's the foolproof strategy? Buy in for 40 to 60 big blinds. Wait for
strong starting hands: pocket pairs, big aces, and K-Q. In position, you
can add some more hands. Ask yourself, "Is this hand better than what
my opponents are probably playing, or am I playing this to try to get
lucky?" If you're playing to get lucky, don't play. For instance, if you see
the 8 6 , throw it away. It can be a good hand when the stacks are
deep and you have some control over your opponents, but it will only
cost you money in a wild and woolly game.
So, you're waiting for good hands. If you have a medium or big pocket
pair, or two big cards, raise preflop. With small pocket pairs or on the
button with your somewhat weaker hands, you can just limp.
If the pot is raised and you hit the flop well, move all in. For instance,
let's say you raise to $35 preflop with the K Q and five players call.
The pot is $210 before the flop, and you have $265 remaining. The flop
comes Q 9 7 . If everyone checks to you, push all in. Even if
someone bets in front of you, push all in. The pot is too large to consider
folding a hand as strong as yours. Indeed, that's what makes this
strategy "foolproof." Your goal is to get your money in early with good
hands, so that there are no tough decisions. You aren't relying on your
hand-reading skills or your creativity to give you an advantage; you're
relying on raw math.
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That's the basic idea. Obviously, you won't push with every hand on
every flop. If you raise preflop with pocket jacks and the flop comes A-K-
6, check and fold. If you have A-K and the flop comes J-9-7, check and
fold. If you limped in preflop with pocket fives and the flop comes Q-10-
3, check and fold. But if you connect solidly with the flop, the pot will be
big enough and your stack will be small enough that you can just put
your money in and be confident that, over time, your bets will earn you
money.
You can mix it up a little bit. For instance, you can try limp-reraising if
you get a strong hand in early position. Or, you can try a squeeze-bluff if
a loose player raises and a few people call. For example, if someone
raises to $40 and three people call, you can try moving all in with the J 9 . If no one calls, you win $160 for your $300 risk. If you get
called, you're getting 3-to-2 on your money, enough to compensate you
even if you run into A-K.
The reason many people have trouble in wild games is that they
repeatedly leave themselves in a no man's land. They flop a decent
hand, but then the big bets start pouring in, and they second-guess
themselves. By buying in a little shorter, you can get your money in with
confidence and with a mathematically guaranteed, foolproof advantage.
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Crushing Wild No-Limit Hold'em GamesThe foolproof strategy in actionby Ed Miller | Published: Dec 19, 2007
Wild games give many players fits. The betting gets so big, so fast, it
takes them out of their comfort zone. "Sure, this top pair is better than
what I usually see out of my opponents, but do I really want to bet $500
on it?"
If you avoid wild games, though, you're missing out on some of the
easiest poker money there is. Last issue, I outlined my foolproof
strategy for beating wild games. The basic idea is to buy in somewhat
short, 40 to 60 big blinds, wait for strong starting hands, and get your
money in fast preflop or on the flop. It's foolproof because if you do
faithfully wait for the good hands and keep your stack short, you
eliminate the chance that you'll get outplayed by your crazy, but
sometimes clever, opponents. They may intimidate you or read your
hands well, but they can't outmaneuver the math.
Here are a couple of examples of the foolproof strategy in action:
You have the A K on the button in a $2-$5 blinds game. Your stack is around $250 (50 big blinds). A loose player opens for $30, and three
players call. Move all in. It's a no-brainer. Obviously, you're at least
going to call, which would make a pot of $157. You can raise $220 more
for the chance to win without a fight, or you can just call and hope to
catch a pair against four (or more) opponents. Overall, you're much
better off trying to pick up the sizable pot immediately.
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Some of you may be saying, "I don't like it. This is just another guy who
likes to overplay A-K." But I assure you, it's not overplaying; indeed, not
moving in would be a big mistake. It's all because of the pot size
compared to the stack size. You intentionally bought in short, so while
your raise is all in, it's not for that much actual money. And because of
the loose raise and several loose calls, there's a lot of dead money in
the pot.
The only hands you're concerned about are A-A and K-K. If someone
with 6-6 calls you, it might appear at first to be a "coin flip," but it's really
not. Sure, you'll be about 50-50 to win the pot, but you're risking $250 to
win $370 (or even more, depending on who calls). Getting 3-to-2 on an
even-money shot is a terrific outcome! Don't disparage it with the term
coin flip. If I could flip coins over and over while getting 3-to-2 each time,
in a month I'd be the richest man in the world.
So, you're really worried only about A-A and K-K. Those hands aren't
likely. The original raiser is loose, so he could have any number of
hands. And the callers are even less likely to have a monster. This is a
soft situation, and it's a perfect place to pounce with impunity.
Indeed, I'd move all in here with A-Q, or 8-8, as well. And depending on
how wild the game really is, I might do it when even weaker. See, I told
you the strategy is foolproof. Even a fool can move all in with A-K after a
raise and a few calls.
Here's another example: You have the K J on the button. The
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same loose raiser opens for $25, and this time only one player calls. You call with your $250 stack. The big blind calls. The flop comes K 7
3 . The blind checks, and the preflop raiser bets $50. The next
player calls. Move all in again. You'd obviously at least call, which would
make the pot $250. You have only $175 more, so you can make a
natural raise of three-quarters of the pot size to protect your top pair. In
this wild game, you may get called by weaker kings, by flush draws, or
possibly even by weaker hands. Don't worry about whether your top pair
is good or not; there's more than enough in the pot already to
compensate you for those times that you run into a better hand.
Again, it's the foolproof strategy at work. If you had bought in for more,
you might have had a tougher flop decision. You would think twice about
losing $600 or $1,000 in this $200 pot with just top pair with a moderate
kicker. But your short buy-in makes the play automatic.
Wild games cause some people trouble because their hand-reading
skills get out of whack. It feels sort of like playing "blind." Add in the big
and fast betting, and crazy games can present some problems. While
buying in full can help you get the most out of wild games if you're
already a master at playing them, buying in short is the key to a
foolproof strategy. Limit your exposure to the crazy betting, and get your
money in fast - preflop and on the flop. Doing that enables you to
harness the built-in advantage of playing better hands. You can ride thatadvantage to a solid, long-term winning strategy.
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Beating No-Limit Hold'em Games With Just a Chip and a ChairA theoretical discussion that's worth the effortby Ed Miller | Published: Jan 02, 2008
My last few columns have been about the advantages that short stacks
have over deep stacks in no-limit hold'em and about how to harness
those advantages to beat wild games. I want to step back now and
explore what I mean by the advantage a short stack gives you.
A few issues back, I said that short stacks have two main advantages
over deeper stacks: They avoid mixed-stack play, and they gain fold
equity without risk. Strategies differ depending on the stack sizes: You
might play a hand very differently with 200 big blinds than you would
with 40 big blinds. So, if you have two opponents, one with 200 big
blinds and one with 40 big blinds, oftentimes you have a problem. You
can't play perfectly against either of them for fear that the other one will
get the better of you. So, you have to compromise. Mixed-stack
"compromises" ultimately cost you money. If you play short, generally
you will never have to play these mixed-stack situations, and thus will
never have to compromise.
Furthermore, if you are the short stack against two deep stacks,
sometimes your opponents will still be duking it out in a side pot after
you've gotten all in. If one gets the other to fold, you've gained winning
chances without risking anything extra. That's a bonus you'll get only if
you're a short stack.
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Typically, I like practical poker advice. Theoretical discussions make my
eyes glaze over. But I'm going to break that pattern here by going
theoretical for a bit. I think it's worth the effort.
Let's say you are playing in a sixhanded game against five copies of
yourself. You play well with deep and short stacks, and your opponents
play exactly as you do. It's a $1-$2 no-limit hold'em game, and you each
buy in for $200 (and rebuy every time you dip below $200). Thankfully,
this game isn't raked. If you play it for a long time, you should expect to
break even, and you should expect the same for each of your five
opponents. Getting a long-term edge in poker depends on imbalances.
It depends on exploiting weaknesses. If you play the same way your
opponents do, you won't have an edge, and ultimately you'll just break
even. So, you against five copies of yourself is a break-even game for
everyone.
Now let's say you are playing in a sixhanded game against five copies
of yourself, but you buy in for $100 while your opponents all buy in for
$200. You play only three hours at a time, so after every three hours of
play, the stacks are reset to their original sizes. You should expect to
make a profit in this game. Even though you're playing against players
as good as yourself, the inherent advantages of playing a short stack
will win the day and make you money over time.
Now let's say you are playing in a sixhanded game against five copies
of yourself, and you are allowed to buy in for $2 (just a chip and a chair)
while your opponents all buy in for $200. You always rebuy for $2 if you
go broke, and after three hours, all of the stacks are reset to their
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original sizes. You still should expect to make a profit at the expense of
your normal-stacked opponents! Perhaps this conclusion seems
ridiculous to you. After all, how can you "beat the blinds" if all you have
is one big blind in your stack?
When you play with one big blind, the table-stakes rule says that your
opponents play with only one big blind, as well, when they're in a hand
with you. Imagine a game in which you play against five copies of
yourself and everyone has only $2. It's a break-even game for
everyone. Sure, someone for this hand has the crippling disadvantage
of posting the blind, but that will rotate for the next hand, and eventually
everyone will share the burden of the blinds equally. Since no money
leaves the table and no one has an inherent advantage, everyone
breaks even.
Because of the table-stakes rule, however, when you play with $2, it is,
to you, as if everyone were playing with just $2. Sure, they have more
money with which they play against other players, but to you that money
is irrelevant. So, if you would break even at a table full of $2 stacks, you
will at least break even against bigger stacks. But you'll actually do
better than that, as the advantages of a short stack will once again kick
in. For instance, let's say you limp in, someone raises, the blinds fold,
and you're heads up. The pot is $7, and you have only one opponent.
You're getting 5-to-2 on your money, and you have to beat only one
player. Those are very attractive odds, and they come from the short-
stack advantage.
When I say that short stacks have a natural advantage, this effect is
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what I'm talking about. Obviously, you won't find yourself in a sixhanded
game against five copies of yourself very often, so one might dismiss
this entire exercise as impractical. But it's not. Sure, if you're the best
player at a table full of gamblers looking to drop their stack on the first
gutshot they see, you'll probably make the most by buying in for the
maximum and waiting for your payday. But if you find yourself in a wild
game full of cagey players (and plenty of these exist), remember that
you can get the best of a table of players who are just as good as you
merely by buying in short.
There are two other real-life lessons from this mythical game against
five copies of yourself. First, when you're in a tournament and you have
just a tiny stack, don't give up! You may have lost most of your winning
chances, but remember that your remaining chips are more powerful
and more valuable than they might at first seem. Second, don't take the
short stacks too lightly. If you try to "bully" them too much with loose
raises, you just may be playing into their hands.
So, while you perhaps shouldn't try to buy in to every game for just one
big blind, know that if you could and if you tailored your strategy to make
the most of your miniature buy-in, your chip and chair would ultimately rule the day.
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Conquering Crazy GamesFour simple stepsby Ed Miller | Published: Jan 16, 2008
Several issues ago, I gave you a foolproof strategy to beat wild no-limit
hold'em games by buying in short. Since then, a number of readers
have asked me the natural question, "So, I use your strategy and double
up. Then what?"
Good question. Fortunately, the strategic ideas stay much the same.
Just follow these four simple steps:
Prepare Yourself Mentally to Get Stacked
You will get stacked in crazy games. It's not uncommon to get stacked
two or three times in a session. You can't protect yourself from this. If
you plan your strategy around not getting stacked, you will lose. Sure,
you won't lose it all in one hand, but if you refuse to get all in, over a
series of hands you will eventually lose it all. Wild players will escalate
the betting and challenge you to play all-in pots. Don't hide from it;
embrace it. Big pots are fun, after all. They're even more fun when you
have the edge, which you will if you keep reading.
Always bring at least five buy-ins with you to the cardroom. If that's too
much money, drop down in stakes. If you can't drop down, buy in for
less. You are far better off splitting your $300 into six $50 buy-ins than
you are buying in for $200 and playing like a wimp.
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Play for Made Hands, Not Draws
In crazy games, a large percentage of the money gets bet preflop and
on the flop. If you've bought in short, you might be all in on the flop. But
even with 100 big blinds or deeper stacks, oftentimes, half or more of
your stack will be bet by the flop, and you'll essentially be committed to
your hand. You don't have time to draw. If you're playing $1-$2 with
$200 stacks and it's $20 four ways preflop and $80 on the flop, you've
likely already passed the point of no return.
For instance, let's say five players limp, and you make it $20 to go with
A-Q. Four players call, so there's $100 in the pot. The flop comes A-J-8
with two of a suit. Everyone checks to you. You could move all in
immediately. Or, depending on the situation, you could bet
approximately the size of the pot. But by betting less, you're not holding
back so that you can fold if things get a little scary. That money is going
in eventually, just not this minute. If a scary turn card comes and
someone else bets, you're calling. This is a crazy game, after all, and in
crazy games, people do crazy things. You have only $80 left, and
there's already at least $380 in the pot. There's no folding.
That's why you want made hands, not draws. Even if the stacks are 100
or 150 big blinds, your most critical "should I stay or should I go"
decisions will still come on the flop. You want to make that decision
when holding a flopped set or top pair, not a gutshot draw or bottom
pair.
Keep an Eye Out for Dead Money
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Dead money makes crazy games worth playing. What's dead money?
It's all of those preflop calls made by people with hands like 7-6 that
make gutshots or bottom pair. If you're playing $1-$2 and you see the
action go raise to $15, call, call, call, you can be fairly certain that a lot
of that $60 pot is dead money.
It's dead because those callers generally can't back up their $15 with
the rest of their stack. Take advantage of that fact by putting in reraises
with hands with which you might not normally think of trying them.
For instance, I was in a wild $2-$5 game once with about a $500 stack.
Before the flop, a player limped, and I also limped with pocket deuces.
The next player made it $50 to go and got five calls back to me. I moved
all in.
You might think I was crazy. As many people are happy to point out
when I relate the hand, deuces are either a "coin flip" or are way behind
a bigger pair. If I had gotten called, I likely would have been a significant
underdog.
But the dead money makes the play. Whenever five players have
entered the pot, you can be certain that many of them have weak
hands. They called the $50 with 9-7 or A-4 or K-10, hoping to catch a
good flop. Unfortunately, that's too much initial risk to take with those
hands. Since you know that your opponents figure to have weak hands,
you have a good chance to pick up all of the dead money.
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After I moved all in, the initial raiser thought for a bit and folded. The
next four players all folded quickly. The final player, who originally
limped in from under the gun, thought for a long time. He kept repeating,
"I know you don't have a big hand," and, "I probably have the best
hand," to try to rattle me. Eventually, he too folded, showing me his K-Q.
Given that I likely would have at least called the original $50 with my
deuces, I risked $450 more for the chance to win the $350 pot
immediately. Even if the K-Q player had called, I still would have made
out well for the hand. I'd have been a very slight favorite, and I'd have
been risking $500 to win $750. Getting 3-to-2 odds on an even-money
shot is nice, though not quite as nice as winning without a fight. Either
way, my all-in move had a strong upside, and it was financed by the
dead money.
Act Decisively
Beating wild games is about taking calculated risks for big chunks of
your stack. Don't chicken out! There was a time in my no-limit career
when I would have talked myself out of the deuces play. "I limp after a
limper, and now all of a sudden I represent pocket aces? No one's going
to believe me. Someone's going to call with a pair, I just know it."
The fear is justified. The story could have ended very differently, and in
a future hand when I try it again, I may get the play stuffed back in my
face. But that's how you win. It's not taking the sure thing that makes
you a great player. Everyone knows how to take the sure thing. It's
taking the risk the good risk that other players either never think of
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or talk themselves out of that enables you to stand above the crowd.
So, the formula is fairly simple. Stick to pocket pairs or big cards before
the flop. Look for opportunities when you know the pot is fat with weak
calls, and then seize the moment by moving in preflop with your small
pocket pair or on the flop with your modest top pair. And if and when you
fall on your face and the pot goes the wrong way, hold your head high, get out your wallet, and shout, "Rebuy!"
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Three No-Limit Hold'em PlaysTry them todayby Ed Miller | Published: Jan 30, 2008
The unwillingness to try new things dooms many poker players to
lackluster results. It's very easy to develop a style, a pattern of play, and
just follow it without thinking. How do you play? If you flop a set, do you
always check it on the flop? If you flop top pair, do you always make a
small raise to "see where you're at"? In similar situations, do you always
tend to adopt a similar approach? If you're honest with yourself, the
answer is probably that you do tend to play on "autopilot" much of the
time.
Unfortunately, if you never try new things, you'll never improve. Unless
you're consistently taking thousands of dollars per month out of your
game, chances are that you don't play perfectly. You do stuff wrong. So
the next time you play, why not try to break your pattern? Force yourself
to try out something you don't normally do. You might be surprised with
how well it works. I suggest trying out these three plays the next time
you're at the table.
An All-In SemibluffDo you usually play your draws passively? If you flop a flush or straight
draw, do you immediately start thinking, "Hmm, do I have odds to call?"
Do you typically check and call, perhaps occasionally throwing in the
occasional cheeky flop bet? Try going for the full monty next time. Push
all in.
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Here's an example: You're playing $1-$2 and everyone has around a
$200 stack. An early-position player makes it $10 to go, and one player calls. You call with the K J on the button. The big blind calls. There's $41 in the pot, and you have $190 remaining.
The flop is Q 8 6 , giving you a flush draw, an overcard, and a runner-runner straight draw. The preflop raiser bets $30, and the next
player folds. Try moving all in for $160 more.
Obviously, it's not guaranteed to work. Your opponent might have A-Q
(or maybe even better) and call. It's a calculated risk, but it's a fairly
solid one. Your flush draw will come in at least one time in three, and
sometimes catching a king will also be enough to win.
There are a couple of rules of thumb. Don't try it if your raise will be
more than twice the size of the pot. In this example, there was $41 in
the pot preflop, $30 from your opponent, and $30 worth of call from your
push, making the pot $101. Your raise was $160 more, less than twice
the $101 pot.
Don't try it if someone has shown exceptional strength in the hand. If a
really tight player who never reraises preflop without pocket aces
reraises preflop, don't try it. If there's a bet and a raise to you on the
flop, don't try it. Try it only when the action is "normal," as whenever
that's the case, there's a good chance that your opponents won't have
the hand strength to look you up.
A River Value-Bet
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A lot of no-limit players, if they flop a pair, will bet once on the flop and
then check it down on the turn and river. It's a safe option, but it also
wastes a lot of value. If you're a chronic pair checker-downer, try a river
value-bet next time out.
For example, let's say you have the A 10 in the big blind. Again, it'sa $1-$2 game with $200 stacks. Two players limp, the small blind folds, and you check. There's $7 in the pot. The flop comes K 10 2 , giving you middle pair. You bet $5, hoping either to win immediately or
to get called by a weaker hand. The first player folds, and the second
calls. The turn is the 8 . You check, and your opponent checks. The
river is the 7 . Try a value-bet of maybe $10 or so.
Your opponent called your small bet, with position, on the flop. That play
doesn't necessarily represent strength. But since you're out of position
and don't have much hand yourself, you check the turn. When your
opponent checks, also, it suggests a weak or moderate made hand
(likely no better than a weak king) or a draw. When another blank
comes on the river, there's a fairly good chance that you have the best
hand. In addition, with all the weakness you've shown, your opponent
may not be able to resist seeing a showdown with a small pair for just
$10 more.
This may seem like small-time stuff. After all, we're talking about only
$10. But when I play, I see one player after another check down decent
pairs with which they could have won an extra $10, $20, or $50 if they'd
had the guts to bet it. All of that money adds up. It's not about winning
$10 on this hand; it's about learning to find all the situations where you
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can win a little extra.
A Double-Barrel BluffBluffs and golf swings have something in common: follow-through is a
key to both. Throwing out one $25 bet may seem like a cheap way to try
to pick up a pot. But sometimes it just isn't enough, and you need to
back that first bet up with another one.
If you're a chronic chicken when it comes to backing your bluffs up with
the big money, throw caution to the wind the next time you play. Give it a
shot.
Here's an example: Everyone folds to you on the button, and you have the 10 8 . You make it $15 to go in your docile $2-$5 game. Only the big blind calls. The flop comes K 9 4 , giving you a flush draw. Your opponent checks, you bet $20 into the $30 pot, and he calls.
The turn is the A , and your opponent checks again. Try a $50 or $60
bluff into this $70 pot.
Your opponent could have called the flop with a wide range of hands.
Good hands like a set, two pair, or top pair are all possible. So are
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weaker hands like a smaller flopped pair or pocket pair, a flush draw, or
a gutshot draw. The offsuit ace on the turn weakens most of your
opponent's possible holdings. In addition, since you raised preflop, your
opponent has to worry that you might hold an ace. Your second barrel
has a good chance to win immediately.
Force yourself out of your comfort zone. Sharp poker doesn't feel "right"
at first. It's not cozy. It may even make your stomach queasy. Push
yourself. Try out these three plays at your next session. If they don't
work out, try them again the next time - and again the time after that. If
you practice them enough and incorporate them into your game, you may be pleasantly surprised with the results.
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Plays That Tip Your HandThree no-limit hold'em 'giveaways'by Ed Miller | Published: Feb 13, 2008
Being too readable can really hurt your no-limit hold'em game. Winning
no-limit hold'em depends on fear and surprise. If your opponents are
uncertain about your holding and fear the hands you could have, you
can steal a lot of pots. And if they are surprised by what you have when
you get all in, you can win some monster pots. If you're too readable,
you won't have fear or surprise on your side, and your results will suffer.
Readable opponents are always my favorite. I don't care if they are tight
or loose; if I know what they have a lot of the time, I will pick them apart.
One key to reading many players is to pick up on plays that I call
"giveaways." They are specific plays that are very reliable and
immediately enable me to narrow my read to just a few possibilities.
Here are three common plays that I consider giveaways:
The Weak Continuation-BetA player opens for $20 in a $2-$5 game. The button calls, and the big blind calls. Everyone has at least $500. The flop comes K J 5 . The big blind checks, and the preflop raiser bets $25. This less-than-
half-pot bet is often a telltale sign of weakness. The board is big and
coordinated. The preflop raiser got called in two places and believes he
should make a continuation-bet. But he's not feeling good about his
hand or chances, so he throws out a small bet. If you're on the button,
raising to $75 or so will quite often win this pot immediately.
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Most players - if they flopped a hand they were proud of, like A-K -
would bet more on this semidangerous flop. They'd want action with
their good hand, and they'd want to protect it. If they flopped a monster,
like top set, they might underbet or even check. But even if they made a
smallish bet every time they flopped a monster, they'd still have a weak
hand far more often than not (weak hands being far more common than
monsters).
Some very sophisticated players have learned to turn this play around,
betting small intentionally to invite a bluff-raise. But many players aren't
sophisticated and are happy to give away their hand strength with a
weak bet.
The Turn Give-upThis giveaway is similar to the weak continuation-bet and is just as
simple. A player opens for $20 preflop, and just the button calls. Both players have more than $500. The flop comes K J 5 . The preflopraiser bets $30, and the button calls. The turn is the 4 , and the raiser
checks. This too is generally a giveaway for a weak hand.
Often, the preflop raiser will fire one barrel on the flop, hoping to take
the pot down. When called, he'll give up on the turn and just check-fold.
Again, some players have learned to reverse this giveaway by
sometimes check-raising the turn. Since any player, no matter how
good, will sometimes play a weak hand exactly this way (raise preflop,
bet the flop, and give up if called), you should indeed sometimes mix up
this pattern by check-raising the turn with good hands.
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The Preflop OvercallSomeone raises (maybe after a limper or two). Another player calls.
Then, someone else calls. This third player has overcalled - called a
raise after someone already called. For a large majority of amateur
players, this preflop overcall is a giveaway for a marginal or drawing
hand. It could be a small pocket pair, it could be suited connectors, it could be a suited ace, or it could even be the A Q . But it's not pocket aces, and it's not pocket kings. Why am I so sure? Because
most players would always reraise with these hands. People sometimes
get tricky with big pairs when they're first in the pot, or even when
they're heads up against a raiser. But once multiple players have
entered the pot, most players play their monsters "straight," raising and
reraising, given the opportunity.
This giveaway also usually holds for overlimps - a limp after one or
more limpers - but it's not quite as reliable.
There are two ways to use this information. First, you can try a preflop
squeeze, whereby you put in a big bluff-reraise in a pot with one or
more overcallers. Your bluff is more likely than average to work
because, by overcalling, your opponents have defined their hands as
likely too weak to call a big raise.
Second (and more rarely), you can sometimes pick off some
spectacular bluffs. Let's say a loose-aggressive player open-raises, and
three players call. You make a big reraise from a blind with pocket tens.
(Assume the stacks are such that this raise makes sense.) The original
raiser folds, as do several of the callers. But the last caller, a tricky
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player who reads hands and sometimes makes plays, moves all in from
the button. You can call, because this play is more likely than not to be a
bluff. Your opponent almost certainly wouldn't overcall from the button
with A-A or K-K. She couldn't expect you to raise from one of the blinds,
since you typically don't. She called with a medium-strength hand that
plays well in multiway pots. But after you raised (a possible squeeze,
she's thinking), and everyone else folded, she saw an opportunity. She
reraised as a "resqueeze." Her original overcall is a reliable enough
giveaway that it's safe to call. You won't run into a better pair very often.
This last example is an exception to a general hand-reading principle. If
your opponent takes an early action for small money that suggests one
thing, but a later action for larger money that suggests another, the later
big-money action is far more likely to represent what your opponent
actually has. Limp-reraising follows this principle: Your opponent limps
early, a seemingly weak move, but then reraises strongly for much more
money, implying a strong hand. Usually, your opponent will indeed have
the strong hand. It's a principle that will serve you well. This overcalling
giveaway is an exception, however, because for many players, it's
nearly 100 percent accurate. Many players will literally never with
pocket aces merely overcall a raise and three calls.
Final ThoughtsYou can use these giveaways in two ways. First, look for other players
making them in your next session. Chances are, you'll see each of them
a number of times. By pairing your sharp reads with the guts to try a
bluff or two, you can take your no-limit game to the next level.
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Second, watch your own play for these giveaways. Don't try to eliminate
the plays entirely from your play. After all, sometimes you have to give
up on the turn. Just reverse the plays sometimes or mix things up
enough so that you won't be an easy target for any of your opponents who may have read this column, too.
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Plays That Tip Your HandThree more no-limit hold'em 'giveaways'by Ed Miller | Published: Feb 27, 2008
All poker players like to think they're sneaky, but some aren't quite as
unpredictable as they think. In my last column, I discussed three
"giveaway" plays that will tell your opponents what kind of hand you
have - if they're paying attention. In this column, I have three more
giveaway plays for you to look for when you play.
The Fooling-Around RaiseThis play has been around forever. I saw it in limit hold'em games, and
now I see it again in no-limit hold'em games. Only a few players do it,
but those who do tend to do it again and again. I'll call it the "fooling-
around" raise.
Here's how it goes in no-limit: Some guy limps in, or maybe he calls a
regular-sized raise. Then, another player behind him raises. There might
be a call or two, and then our original caller decides to reraise. But it's
not a big reraise (that might imply a big hand). It's a small raise, perhaps
a minimum raise. Recently in a $1-$2 game, I saw this fool-around
raiser call $2, and then when it was $12 back to him, he made it $22 to
go. He had pocket threes.
Then, after a $10 raise and a call, I saw him make it $20 to go. He had
J-9 that time.
Then he limped in for $2, and I made it $15 with pocket queens. A tight
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player called from one of the blinds (very likely a small or medium
pocket pair or A-K). The fool-around guy made it $30 to go. I reraised
$60 more. The tight player whined about wanting to see a flop and
folded. Then, the fool-around guy grinned and folded.
I've seen these fooling-around raises regularly for as long as I've been
playing. Again, only a small percentage of players make them, but those
who do tend to make them regularly. They usually choose drawing
hands, such as connectors or small pocket pairs. Be on the lookout.
They are very exploitable, so if you find one of them in your game,
rejoice.
The Nervous RaiseA player who typically makes preflop raises of $30 or so in a $5-$10
game makes it $60 to go from under the gun. For some players, this
raise screams one thing, "I have pocket jacks!" It could be tens, maybe
A-K, perhaps queens. But that's about it. And the prime suspect? Jacks.
The psychology is simple. The raiser is thinking, "I know that pocket
jacks is a good hand, but I hate it. I always seem to lose with it. I'd
rather everyone just fold so that I can pick up the blinds. Let me raise an
extra-large amount this time to help make that happen." The irony is that
the out-of-position, extra-large raise often just creates difficult situations
that a normal raise wouldn't. That's especially true if you call gleefully
behind them, knowing exactly what they have. But irony aside, for some
players, this nervous raise is a dead giveaway.
The Speech
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If you play live, or if you've watched live play on TV, you've heard it. You
make a bet, and then your opponent goes into the tank. He starts
babbling. "You must have hit it. You hit it, huh? You made a flush. You
made the darn flush on me." Blah, blah, blah.
The speech means one of two things: Your opponent is genuinely in the
tank and is retching about whether to call or not, or he's Hollywooding,
has the nuts, and wants to seem weak so that he can get the last of
your cash.
The giveaway, then, is how your opponent reacts after the speech. If it's
the river and he just calls, he was honestly in the tank. If it's the river
and he raises, however, he was Hollywooding and actually has a
monster. People don't give the speech and then raise as a bluff. The
speech followed by aggression is a dead giveaway for a huge hand.
I played a hand recently that made me think of this giveaway. It was a
$2-$5 blinds game, and my opponent had about $450 total. I had him covered. I had the 2 2 in the big blind and called a $5 raise in a fourhanded pot. The flop came 7 5 5 . I checked, and it was checked around. The turn was the 2 , and I bet $35. Two players
called. The river was the 9 , putting a possible straight and a backdoor
flush on board. I had a somewhat bluffy image (I thought so, at least) at
the time, so I bet $200, hoping to perhaps get a suspicious call. The
next player started with the speech. "You hit the backdoor flush, huh? I
knew I should have bet earlier. Darn flush." Blah, blah, blah.
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After about a minute of the speech, he moved in for a little over $200
more! The other player folded, and I called. He showed 7-7 for the
flopped full house.
Giving the speech and then raising is such a strong giveaway for a
monster hand that it's getting close to correct for me to fold my full
house! I'm getting nearly 4-to-1 to call, but once he mentions that he's
"afraid" of the backdoor flush and then puts me all in, the worst hand he
really can have is the nut flush - or maybe a king- or queen-high flush.
And, of course, he could have a full house in numerous ways. With the
worst-possible full house, I'm a significant dog. Getting 4-to-1, I'm not
going to worry too much about it, and if my call was wrong, I don't think
it was too bad. But this example just shows the giveaway power of the
speech. If he had just quietly raised all in, I would have called and
expected to win. Since the speech came first, though, I was expecting to
lose when I called.
As a footnote, the speech becomes more reliable the later in the hand
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you get. If your opponent hems and haws preflop, and then says, "I
guess I'm ready to go home now," as he pushes all in, that's not
necessarily pocket aces. It could still easily be, but sometimes your
opponent legitimately is on the fence about what to do, and just says,
"What the heck," and pushes. But on the river, no one hems and haws
legitimately and then pushes all in. If you hear the speech and then your
opponent moves in, he was putting you on.
Final ThoughtsI see giveaways frequently when I play. Sometimes all they do is
confirm what I was already planning to do, but occasionally they can
really change dramatically the way I play a hand. In particular, hearing
the speech on the river has helped me fold straights and flushes that I
never would have folded otherwise. Learning to use giveaways is a fun and lucrative skill to add to your playing arsenal.
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Fearsome Check-Raise Bluffs Made EasyPlaying out of positionby Ed Miller | Published: Mar 12, 2008
Playing out of position in no-limit hold'em puts you at a big
disadvantage. Consequently, I recommend avoiding it as much as
possible. Does that bully in seat 4 keep raising your blind? For the most
part, I say, let him have it. When you're playing with $200 stacks, a
measly $2 blind isn't a big deal. And it's quite easy to lose a nice chunk
of your stack by trying to "take a stand" with a hand like J-7 after a 7
flops. So, I usually just fold the J-7 and wait until I have the button.
But you can't help but play out of position sometimes. Let's say that you
have K-Q in the big blind, and a loose-aggressive player raises from the
cutoff. You have too much hand to fold. Calling is good, as is reraising.
(I would choose one or the other depending on the specifics of the
situation.) Let's say that you call. Now, you're playing out of position.
The hand will continue most commonly as follows: You will miss the flop,
you will check, and your opponent will bet.
Aggressive players will continuation-bet the flop a large percentage of
the time. Some players will bet every time. If you simply fold every time
you miss, you are playing into your opponent's hands. To win your due,
you sometimes have to check-raise bluff.
But you definitely don't want to check-raise bluff every time. If you try
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that, your opponents will catch on and your success rate will plummet.
So, you have to pick your spots. Here's my guide to choosing the best
situations:
Pick on Loose Players: Joe McRock has just opened from under the gun. He is ultratight from up front, so you think he probably has pocket
aces, kings, queens, jacks, or A-K. One player calls, and you call from
the big blind with the 3 3 . The flop comes J 7 4 . You check,
Joe bets two-thirds of the pot, and the other player folds. This is a weak
opportunity for a bluff. Your opponent's range of hands is simply too
strong, on average, to bluff profitably.
This would be a much more attractive bluffing opportunity if the raiser
were loose. If you could expect the raiser to sometimes have hands like
the A 3 , 8 6 , or K 9 , a check-raise bluff would work much
better.
Watch the Stack Sizes: Stack size is the most critical factor in nearly every no-limit decision, and bluffing is no different. When you check-
raise bluff, you don't want the stacks too shallow or too deep. You want
them just right.
They're too deep if your opponent might think that he can call your
check-raise and "wait and see" what happens later in the hand. For
instance, let's say that you're playing $1-$2 with $500 stacks. Someone
opens for $10, and you call from the big blind. The pot is $21. The flop
comes, you check, your opponent bets $15, and you check-raise to $50.
It's $35 to go to your opponent, but there's still more than $400 left in
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the stacks. Your opponent may call with hands as weak as a gutshot or
a weak pair, reasoning that the betting hasn't really gotten "big" yet. If
you check-raise bluff with these deep stacks, you should be prepared to
sometimes fire another barrel later in the hand if you get called.
Now let's say that your opponent has a $60 stack. He opens for $10,
and you call. The flop comes, you check, he bets $15, and you check-
raise to $50. Since that's all your opponent has left, he might well call
you with just modest draws or weak made hands, figuring that he can't
lose a whole lot even if he's beat.
You want the stacks to be deep enough for your opponent to fear losing
a big pot, but not so deep that he believes the betting isn't even big yet.
Attack Weak Bets: Your opponents will often give away information about the strength of their hands as early as their flop bet. The natural
inclination for many players is to bet more with good hands and less
with weak ones. When they're weak and just want you to fold, these
players might bet half the pot. And when they're fairly strong and hoping
to protect their hand, they might bet closer to the full pot.
If you pick up on a pattern like this one, you can choose to check-raise
when your opponent makes a smaller bet and let it go against a bigger
one.
Leverage Dry Flops: A dry flop is one that naturally hits few hands. For example, the 7 2 2 is an extremely dry flop. No flush or straight
draws are available, and to have a really strong hand, you need to hold
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the card that people are least likely to raise preflop, a deuce. Your
opponent is far more likely to miss a dry flop than a coordinated one (for
instance, Q 10 8 ), and therefore your bluff is more likely to
succeed.
Indeed, 7-2-2 is maybe even a little too dry to make for a perfect bluffing
flop (though it doesn't have to be perfect to be worth check-raising). It
has two problems. First, your opponent will likely have at least two
overcards, which may be enough to convince him to continue. Second,
your opponent, if he is thinking, will know that it's hard for you to have
hit the flop, as well, and may suspect a bluff and play back at you.
A flop like the K 7 3 is somewhat less dry, but it makes for a
great bluffing opportunity. If your opponent doesn't have either a king or
a fluke monster hand, you'll likely get the fold you want as long as the
other conditions are in place (namely, your opponent has a wide range
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of hands, the stack sizes are right, and perhaps his continuation-bet
was on the weak side).
A Fearsome Check-Raise Bluff: So, that loose-aggressive player from the opening example makes it $8 to go from the cutoff in a $1-$2 game
with $200 stacks. You call from the big blind with the K Q . The flop
comes J 7 7 . You check, your opponent bets $10, and you make
it $35 to go. Your opponent folds instantly.
This well-timed bluff worked because:
1. Your loose opponent could have a wide range of weak starting hands.
2. The stack sizes threatened your opponent with a big loss if you
actually showed up with the 7 you were representing.
3. Your opponent's continuation-bet size didn't exude confidence in his
hand strength.
4. The board was a dry one that would hit only a relatively small
percentage of your opponent's possible holdings.
Keep these guidelines in mind, and you'll soon be winning your share ofpots when you happen to be playing out of position.
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The Squeeze PlayA good way to mix up your playby Ed Miller | Published: Mar 26, 2008
The squeeze play has a bit of a daring and clever feel to it. It's a bluff (or
semibluff) perpetrated against not one, but several opponents.
Someone bets, one or more players call, and you raise. When it works,
you feel like a champ, and you rake a big pot. When it doesn't work,
"Oops."
Here's a quick-and-dirty squeeze example:
You're playing $5-$10 no-limit hold'em with $1,000 stacks. A loose and
aggressive player makes it $30 to go. Two average players call. You're
in the big blind with the Q 6 . You raise to $150. Everyone folds, and
you pick up the pot.
The squeeze is a terrific weapon, and it's one that every no-limit player
should use. At first blush, it seems risky, since you're trying to bluff a
number of players at the same time. If any one of them calls, you're
toast. But actually, its risk/reward profile is often quite good. Here's why:
1. Since you're bluffing after a bet and several calls, the pot is bigger
than a "usual" bluff. In the above example, there's already $105 in the
pot when it's your action. Your bluff is $140 to win $105, so it has to
succeed only about 58 percent of the time to be profitable.
2. After you get past the initial raiser, oftentimes the callers will go down
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easily. Calling tends to put an upper limit on hand strength. For
instance, the loose-aggressive raiser could have pocket aces (though
he would raise with lots of hands). The first caller could also possibly
have aces, but it's less likely. And the second caller is even less likely to
have aces. After all, few players would flat-call with aces after a raise
and a call. So, once you get lucky and the raiser folds, the callers (who
could only call the first time) often go down easily.
3. The initial raiser is "squeezed." That is, while the callers will usually
fold, sometimes they'll be sitting on a monster (or sometimes they'll just
be stubborn). If the callers didn't exist, the raiser could call with position,
closing the action. But since they do exist, the raiser could call, only to
get reraised or overcalled. That danger might induce the initial raiser to
fold a marginal calling (or reraising) hand.
An additional advantage to trying the occasional squeeze is that it
balances your play. If someone raises preflop and two players call, with
how many hands will you make a "straight" big reraise from the big
blind? Not many, only the very best. If you never try a squeeze, that big
blind reraise gives away far too much information about your hand.
When no-limit games first started being spread again in Vegas (in
2004), many of the "good" players in the games had this problem. If
they made a big reraise from the big blind, they had pocket aces or
kings every time. You can't play like that! You have to mix it up, and the
occasional squeeze is a great way to do that.
You can use the squeeze on any betting round, not just preflop. Indeed,
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the play is equally useful after the flop. I remember a TV hand from
several years ago in which Gavin Griffin pulled off a remarkable
squeeze play. I don't recall the details of the hand, but the gist of it went
like this: They were playing the final table of a World Series of Poker
event, and all of the relevant stacks were deep. Gavin opened the pot
from middle position with 8-7. Someone called from the button, and the
big blind called. The flop came 6-6-5, giving Gavin an open-end straight
draw. Both of his opponents were excellent players. The big blind bet,
and Gavin called. Then, the button raised. The big blind called, and
Gavin made a big reraise squeeze! Both players thought, and eventually
folded.
This play relied on Gavin's opponents being tough players and excellent
hand-readers themselves. Gavin opened the pot, and the flop came 6-6-
5. From Gavin's perspective, the big blind could have a wide range of
hands, including many bluffs. After all, how many "raising hands" does a
6-6-5 flop hit? His opponent could be betting nothing just trying to pick
up the pot.
Gavin had a straight draw, though, so he called. Then, the button raised.
Could it be a squeeze? It might be. The button had position, and neither
player had shown much strength yet on the 6-6-5 flop. He might be
trying a squeeze or putting in a raise with a weakish holding to define
his hand.
When the big blind called, it defined his hand much more strictly.
Obviously, he had something, or else he would have folded. But with
trips or a full house, he might have reraised again. So the call indicated
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a hand of medium strength, with a lingering possibility of a monster.
Gavin took a shot by reraising big.
He knew that his opponents couldn't mistake his reraise for anything
other than a slow-played monster. The call-reraise play on a 6-6-5 flop
was unmistakably a huge hand: a full house or maybe A-6. His
opponents would need a similarly big hand to call. Given the action so
far, combined with the already large size of the pot, the squeeze had a
good risk/reward profile. He had a good chance of success, and he'd
win a big pot. And if he got called by trips, he'd have a chance to draw
out with a straight.
That squeeze relied on finely tuned hand-reading and solid opponent
familiarity. Most squeezes aren't so dramatic. There are two main
conditions for a squeeze to possibly work:
1. The player who made the original bet or raise is marked with a broad
range, including bluffs and other weak hands. Don't try to squeeze
someone who will bet the flop only with a set! Many aggressive players
will bet with lots of hands. They are your targets.
2. The calling players aren't so clueless that they'll just call the raise with
whatever they called the original raise. They have to know that a reraise
usually means business. Most players do.
Once those conditions are met, try the occasional squeeze. It will mix up
your play, and let you experience the unique poker satisfaction of executing a well-timed bluff.
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How Suited Connectors Cost You MoneyThey're played too oftenby Ed Miller | Published: Apr 09, 2008
You're playing $1-$2 no-limit hold'em at your local casino. Everyone
folds to you in middle position, and you limp in with the 9 7 . Another
player folds, and then someone with about a $150 stack raises to $10.
Everyone folds to you. You call, eager to see what prize the flop will
bring.
Does that story sound familiar to you? If it does, I fear that I'm the
bearer of bad news. Suited connectors are costing you money!
Most players play suited connectors too often and not-so-suited
connectors and suited not-so-connectors. We can be inclined to play
any of these hands if we're antsy to see some action.
Sometimes suited connectors are fine to play, but often they're not, and
it pays to know when is when. They're fine to play if and only if your
primary plan with them is to find a place to steal the pot. If you're going
in thinking, "Let's get lucky and hit the flop hard and stack these
donkeys," I think you're making two mistakes. First, you're
overestimating how often you'll hit the flop hard. You're a huge underdog
to flop two pair or better, which means that most of the time, "hitting the
flop hard" will mean flopping a draw. Draws can be good hands, but a lot
of their value comes from stealing equity.
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Second, you're overestimating how much you'll win on average when
you do hit the board hard. Let's say you have the 6 5 , for instance,
and flop the K J 7 . That's a decent flop, but not a great one.
Why? Because everyone and his brother will notice if a third heart
comes, and they'll be cautious, so you'll rarely win a monster pot by
making your flush. And when you do play a big pot, you'll find yourself
up against a bigger flush fairly often. Your big pot-winning chances are
generally better if you make a straight than if you make a small flush.
The bottom line is, small-card hands (excluding small pocket pairs)
aren't that great at winning huge pots. Sure, they win huge pots
sometimes, but A-K wins huge pots sometimes, too. When you play a
small-card hand, you should be thinking, "Maybe they'll let me slip into
the pot and then steal it."
I play a lot of hands on the button. I avoid stuff like J-4, but I often play
hands like 10-8 offsuit or 6-3 suited. I'll raise preflop with them.
Sometimes I'll even call a raise with them (usually only if the raiser is the
only other player in the pot, and is someone I believe I have control
over). My plan is to try to find a spot after the flop to steal. Maybe it'll be
as simple as, raise preflop, bet the flop, and win. Maybe it will be a more
complicated steal that relies on a read of weakness. Maybe I'll flop a
draw and try a big semibluff. Having the button is flexible and lets me
formulate new plans on the fly. But the majority of the pots I win when
playing these hands, I win by stealing, not by making a big hand.
In fact, when I do accidentally make a monster with one of the trashy
hands, I often end up just "stealing" the pot anyway. The harder I hit the
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board, the less likely it is that my opponent hit it, too. You can't win a big
pot without your opponent's cooperation.
I don't touch any of these hands when out of position. And while 9-8
suited is better than 10-8 offsuit or 6-3 suited, it's not that much better. I
usually don't play 9-8 suited when out of position, either. It's harder to
steal when you don't have position. It's harder to play your draw when
you don't have position. It's harder to win a big pot when you don't have
position. You don't make your money playing out of position. It's that
simple.
Let's go back to the hand with which I started this column. You limp in
with 9-7 suited, a player with position and a $150 stack makes it $10 to
go, and you call. This is a bad situation for 9-7 suited. You're out of
position, so it will be hard to steal. If you do happen to hit the hand,
most of the time you'll have nothing more than a weak bottom or middle
pair. If you flop a flush draw, it will be a small one that could get you
stacked by a bigger flush. And even if you do happen to make a big
hand and get paid, you'll win only $150 on your $10 investment. That's a
decent score, but it's not enough to make up for all the small and
medium losses. When you strip away the hopes and dreams of flushes
and straights, all you really have is a mediocre hand, out of position.
So, what would I do with the 9 7 in middle position? I'd fold it the
first time around. If something came over me and I happened to throw
$2 in the first time around, I'd definitely fold it to the raise. And then I'd
wait for the button to come around to me before thinking again about playing any of those small suited cards.
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Playing Big Slick Against a ReraiseConsider pushingby Ed Miller | Published: Apr 29, 2008
Recently, I was playing in a fairly loose $2-$5 live no-limit hold'em
game. An early-position player with about $300 limped in. I was two off
the button and made it $20 to go with the A K . The button, with
about $325 total, made it $75 to go. He was an unremarkable, slightly
loose player. The limper thought for a while, and then called. I had both
players covered.
1. How should I respond? Should I fold, call, raise a bit, or move all in?
2. What's my plan for the rest of the hand (should I need one)?
Answer those two questions for yourself before you read on.
I'll tell you what I did.
I pushed for $325 total, roughly a pot-sized $250 raise. The reraiser
folded fairly quickly. The limper/cold-caller lingered, then folded pocket
queens faceup.
Why did I push? It's in the fold equity: I turned my hand into a semibluff.
My all-in four-bet looks very much like aces to my opponents. Indeed, if
they'd read Phil Gordon's Little Green Book, they'd think it was almost a
certainty that I held aces. So, I can expect many players to fold good
hands, up to and including pocket queens.
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Naturally, some will call with pocket queens and perhaps even weaker
hands. That's where the semibluff aspect comes in, as I still have solid
equity against those hands. (Indeed, I have so much equity against
pocket queens and worse that I'd be willing to call if they had gone all in,
instead, provided I knew they had queens or worse.)
At my turn to act, there's $177 in the pot. By pushing, I risk $280 more
against the $300 stack and $305 more against the $325 stack.
I think it's quite unlikely that the limper/cold-caller has aces or kings.
He's had two opportunities to raise and hasn't, and I find that the
overwhelming majority of the time, a player with those hands will find
either an initial raise or a limp-reraise. The way he thought about his
cold-call further confirmed my suspicions, as it seemed he was
genuinely concerned by the action, not putting on an act to conceal
strength. I think he's most likely to have a pocket pair, queens or lower.
He also may have unpaired cards such as the J 10 and simply be a
loose preflop caller.
Naturally, the preflop reraiser could have aces or kings, but given even
a relatively tight reraising range of pocket aces through nines and A-K,
he'll have me dominated only a modest fraction of the time (15 percent
of the time, in this instance). If he's a looser reraiser (and I thought he
might be at the time), it's fairly unlikely that I'm in real trouble.
So, I think that most of the time, let's say at least 75 percent of the time,
I'm not up against either aces or kings. In those situations, I have a very
profitable semibluff, risking $280 to win $177 with roughly 50 percent
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equity when called. When I'm up against kings, I'm still OK, as I have
about 30 percent equity and I'm getting more than 1.5-to-1 from the pot.
It's not enough to break even, but it will help cushion the blow.
Calling makes little sense in this situation due to the stack sizes. If I
were to call, there'd be one pot-sized bet remaining, and I'd be first to
act on the flop. On an ace or king flop, I'd have good winning chances,
but the flop might scare off lower pairs. On a non-ace or king flop, I'd
have poorer chances, but I might risk getting bluffed by a weaker hand.
In any event, my opponents stand to gain more by seeing a flop than I
do.
Folding is the most natural alternative to pushing. If the reraiser were to
have an exceedingly tight range, folding might be the best play. As it
was, however, I thought the reraiser might be a bit loose, so I rejected
folding.
The stack sizes in this hand were very well-suited for pushing. Since
only one pot-sized bet remained after the preflop reraise, a final preflop
semibluff push was a natural play. If the stacks were a bit deeper,
however, I may have folded, as the risk of pushing might have been too
great. And if the stacks were deeper still, I may have called, hoping to
flop well and win a huge pot.
Also, if my opponents see me pu