EcoTipping PointsEcoTipping Points

Systems Thinking for Systems Thinking for SustainabilitySustainability

Gerry MartenGerry Marten

Do you think Do you think environmental and social environmental and social

problems are problems are easyeasy or or difficultdifficult??

How are environmental and How are environmental and social problems difficult?social problems difficult?

Environmental problems are Environmental problems are powerful and complexpowerful and complex

Overwhelmingly complex (hard to know Overwhelmingly complex (hard to know what to do).what to do).Overwhelming social and ecological Overwhelming social and ecological forces.forces.Attempts to solve the problems: Attempts to solve the problems: ““swimming against the currentswimming against the current””..

Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein

““We can’t solve problems by using We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” when we created them.”

Systems thinking is about Systems thinking is about connections and changeconnections and change

Things usually stay the same, but Things usually stay the same, but sometimes they change a lot.sometimes they change a lot.

Tipping PointTipping Point: A threshold for : A threshold for dramatic change.dramatic change.

““LeversLevers” – Actions that push change ” – Actions that push change past a tipping point.past a tipping point.

ConnectionsConnections – Chain of effects from – Chain of effects from the lever to other parts of a system.the lever to other parts of a system.

LeversLevers

Can you think of examples Can you think of examples

of small changes leading of small changes leading

to larger changes?to larger changes?

Success storySuccess story

Two parts:Two parts:

1)1) Decline (“Negative tip”)Decline (“Negative tip”)

2)2) Restoration (“Positive tip”)Restoration (“Positive tip”)

Success stories offer lessons about Success stories offer lessons about how to achieve a turnabout from how to achieve a turnabout from decline to restoration.decline to restoration.

VIDEOVIDEO

EcoTipping Points Success Story: EcoTipping Points Success Story: Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India)Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India)

Part 1: “Negative Tip”Part 1: “Negative Tip”

Change happens Change happens because of connections. because of connections.

Feedback loopsFeedback loops(change makes more change)(change makes more change)

Trace some feedback loops (vicious Trace some feedback loops (vicious cycles) in the negative tip diagram.cycles) in the negative tip diagram.

A B

D C

VIDEOVIDEO

EcoTipping Points Success Story: EcoTipping Points Success Story: Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India)Escaping the Pesticide Trap (India)

Part 2: “Positive Tip”Part 2: “Positive Tip”

Do success stories like this Do success stories like this happen where you live?happen where you live?

If not, do you think If not, do you think they can happen?they can happen?

““EcoTipping Point” leverEcoTipping Point” lever

Eco-technology Eco-technology (Non-Pesticide (Non-Pesticide Management)Management)Appropriate Appropriate social organization social organization to put to put the eco-technology into practice.the eco-technology into practice.Non-Pesticide Management generated Non-Pesticide Management generated a chain of far-reaching effects to cause a chain of far-reaching effects to cause a switch from unsustainable to a switch from unsustainable to sustainable.sustainable.

Put in the arrows and write the Put in the arrows and write the direction of change (“more” or “less”) direction of change (“more” or “less”)

Trace some feedback loops (virtuous Trace some feedback loops (virtuous cycles) in the positive tip diagram.cycles) in the positive tip diagram.

““EcoTipping Point” leverEcoTipping Point” lever

Reversed vicious cycles to form virtuous Reversed vicious cycles to form virtuous cycles.cycles.Created additional virtuous cycles and Created additional virtuous cycles and spin-offs (“Success breeds success”), spin-offs (“Success breeds success”), reinforcing restoration and locking it reinforcing restoration and locking it into sustainability.into sustainability.

Lesson from the storyLesson from the story

Solving problems is not simply Solving problems is not simply treating the treating the ““symptoms.symptoms.””

ItIt’’s not even tracing back from s not even tracing back from ““symptomssymptoms”” to to ““root causesroot causes”” and and fixing the fixing the ““root causesroot causes””..

““SymptomsSymptoms”” and and ““root causesroot causes”” are all are all connected in mutually reinforcing connected in mutually reinforcing circles (feedback loops), which circles (feedback loops), which ““drivedrive”” the problem. the problem.

Lesson from the storyLesson from the story

Reversing vicious cycles may be Reversing vicious cycles may be difficult because the vicious cycles difficult because the vicious cycles can be very strong.can be very strong.

But anything less is But anything less is ““swimming swimming against the currentagainst the current””..

Good news: Once reversed, the same Good news: Once reversed, the same feedback loops drive restoration with feedback loops drive restoration with as much force as they drove decline.as much force as they drove decline.

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles?

What were some of What were some of

the “keys to success” in the the “keys to success” in the

““Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles?

How did each of the “Ingredients for How did each of the “Ingredients for Success” in the handout appear in Success” in the handout appear in the “Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?the “Escaping Pesticide Trap” story?

What does it take to reverse the vicious cycles?

“Ingredients for success”:Outside stimulation and facilitation

Local democratic institutions with persistent local leadership

Co-adaptation between social system and ecosystem – “Social commons for environmental commons”

Ingredients for successIngredients for success

“Letting nature do the work”

Rapid results – quick payback to stimulate commitment

A powerful symbol to mobilize community support

Overcoming social obstacles. Autonomy helps to cope with “social complexity”

Overcoming social obstacles

Competing demands for people’s attention, energy, and time

Dysfunctional dependence on the Dysfunctional dependence on the status quo status quo

People threatened by innovation

Outsiders grab valuable resources Outsiders grab valuable resources

Lack of local autonomyLack of local autonomy

Ingredients for successIngredients for success

Social/ecological diversity. More choices mean more possibilities for good choices.

Social/ecological memory (tradition)

Building resilience (adaptive capacity)

Epilogue: Bt-cottonEpilogue: Bt-cotton

Genetically modified (“GMO”) cotton Genetically modified (“GMO”) cotton contains a gene for contains a gene for Bacillus Bacillus thuringiensisthuringiensis toxin. toxin.

The toxin kills cotton bollworms when The toxin kills cotton bollworms when they eat cotton.they eat cotton.

Bt-cotton became very popular in Bt-cotton became very popular in India (2005 → Present)India (2005 → Present)

Farmers must buy the seed from Farmers must buy the seed from Monsanto each year. Monsanto each year.

Bt-cottonBt-cotton

The cotton bollworm is now resistant The cotton bollworm is now resistant to Bt-cotton in some places.to Bt-cotton in some places.

Recently, there has been a short Recently, there has been a short supply of Bt-cotton, so the seed price supply of Bt-cotton, so the seed price is very high, and some farmers can’t is very high, and some farmers can’t get it.get it.

Farmers are losing money, and Farmers are losing money, and suicides have increased.suicides have increased.

Group workGroup work

Think of an environmental or social Think of an environmental or social problem of particular interest to you.problem of particular interest to you.Draw a “negative tip” diagram that Draw a “negative tip” diagram that shows the interconnected vicious cycles shows the interconnected vicious cycles driving decline.driving decline.

Be prepared to explain the “negative Be prepared to explain the “negative tip” diagram: the arrows and the vicious tip” diagram: the arrows and the vicious cycles that are driving change.cycles that are driving change.

Group workGroup work

Using the negative tip diagram, think of Using the negative tip diagram, think of one or more points of intervention one or more points of intervention (i.e., action: EcoTipping Point “lever”) (i.e., action: EcoTipping Point “lever”) to turn the decline around to restoration.to turn the decline around to restoration.

Think how to make the lever effective Think how to make the lever effective by means of “ingredients for success.by means of “ingredients for success.

Email address:Email address:marteng@eastwestcenter.orgmarteng@eastwestcenter.org

EcoTipping Points Website:EcoTipping Points Website:www.ecotippingpoints.orgwww.ecotippingpoints.orgOne hundred success storiesOne hundred success storiesExplanation of the principlesExplanation of the principles

“How Success Works” educational package“How Success Works” educational package

Human Ecology Human Ecology book:book:www.gerrymarten.comwww.gerrymarten.com