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ECONSABLAZE VOLUME II | 2012
CURRENCY Who broke the Bank of
England? Find out on Page 14.
2 :: ECONSABLAZE
Published by the ECONS EXCO
(From left) Ling Xin Chuan,
Benjamin Toh, Ong Liang
Kun, Xue Quan, Wilson Kong,
Chow Wen Kang, Phang
Zheng Xun, Teoh Jie Shun,
Ang Jia Xi
ECONSABLAZE :: 3
Credits The completion of the magazine would not have been possible without the following
people:
Our teacher advisors, Ms Clara Lee and Ms Winnie Law, who went through
the numerous drafts to ensure the perfection of the magazine.
The various tutors from the Economics department for their help.
Seniors who granted us interviews
Friends who shared their opinions and experiences for the EU Trip
All Rights Reserved to the Economics Exco 2011/2012.
Comics on Page 9 and 15 are drawn by our talented artist Liang Kun. This issue is
designed by Jie Shun.
Images used in this publication are as cited below.
Image Credits
Cover Page: Kaptain Kobold – Flickr Creative Commons http://goo.gl/Y8x5h
Content Page: xcode - Flickr Creative Commons http://goo.gl/cBakX [H&M] / osiatynska –
Flickr Creative Commons http://goo.gl/Se2nx [remember to thank all the books you
haven’t read over the past three years] / Mukumbura - Flickr Creative Commons
http://goo.gl/TH3JS [Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves]
Breaking the Bank of England: http://www.buzzle.com/img/articleImages/36130-14.jpg
4 :: ECONSABLAZE
Editor’s Note Paul Krugman famously remarked in his book, The
Accidental Theorist: and Other Dispatches from the Dismal
Science, that “nobody who has read a business magazine in
the last few years can be unaware that these days there
really are investors who not only move money in
anticipation of a currency crisis, but actually do their best to
trigger that crisis for fun and profit. These new actors on the
scene do not yet have a standard name; my proposed term is 'Soroi'.” This term is
especially pertinent when it comes to currency speculation in a country. The case of
George Soros is extremely fascinating- he made billions in investment profits during
a single banking crisis, leading to accusations from the public that Soros was solely
responsible for the crisis.
Going with the theme, this issue of Economics Ablaze will feature an article about
currency speculation written by Phang Zheng Xun (11S7D). Not only that, you will
also find a variety of articles that will stimulate your interest in economics, as well as
school events coverage to whet your appetite for Economics.
Also, be sure to read Wilson Kong (11S64)’s light and fun feature about the
economics of shopping, as well as Ling Xin Chuan (11S69)’s interesting feature about
the economics of higher education. Don’t forget to check out the interviews with
your seniors who will be going overseas for their undergraduate studies! They will
definitely prove to be interesting reads.
Happy Reading!
Chow Wen Kang
Chief Editor
On behalf of the Economics EXCO
OPINIONS
ECONSABLAZE :: 5
Opinions Find out your schoolmates’ take on our
big issue – Shopping.
I don’t shop. I think shopping is a
huge waste of time. Waste energy
and money. Makes me feel sad
because there when there is stuff I
like, I cannot buy because I do not
have money. – Tan Zher Yin, 11S6E
Shopping is good exercise and it's just
really fun to see all the pretty things
there are around but the stocks are
so limited!! A lot of common brands
like Zara, Topshop and Cotton On are
everywhere! Plus so overpriced! And
the stocks are quite repeated too
then you realise why Singaporeans
dress the same. LOL. – Jessie Zhang
Yeru, 11S75
I wish I could outsource my shopping
task. – Ang Jia Wei 11S7F
Shopping? It's ineffective allocation of
resources. It's a waste of time. I
mean, what's the difference between
a red and a yellow shirt if they have
the same design? – Chia Chingyee,
11S7D
I like shopping for clothes even
though I don’t buy most of the stuff I
try. I guess I don’t generate a lot of
demand for clothes… – Liow Wei Yuan,
11S69
I usually shop for clothes and shoes
at larger shops such as Cotton On. I
think they are luxury goods. I do it
during my free time [Habit]. If I have
more pocket money I will definitely
buy more. I prefer shopping at retail
outlets than online because I get to
try on clothes. I will not be sure of
the quality of goods if I shop online. –
Girl from 11S7H who wanted us to censor that she thinks shopping is a necessity.
I like shopping when I have money.
Shopping is good -- it stimulates the
economy. – Joshua Foo, 11S7D
I think everyone should go shopping
once in a while because this will help
in raising consumption for economic
growth. But we should not shop
excessively so that wastage of
resources is minimized. – Poh Yong
Keat 11S6G
OPINIONS
6 :: ECONSABLAZE
I think oligopoly and monopolistic
competition market structures are
quite common in Singapore. Shops
such as NTUC Supermarket operate
under an oligopolistic market
structure. But they got so little
variety. So boring. Cold Storage got
more variety. I like. We prefer to go
to the small shops at Bugis Street.
For girls, price is not the problem. But
more importantly, we must ensure
what we wear won’t be worn by
others. Thus we usually go Bugis
Street or Far East Plaza where there
is more variety. For example, even if
Checkered Shirts are popular, we still
want to wear different colour from
the rest. I think it is a good decision
for H&M, Uniqlo and other new
brands to set up their stores in
Singapore. If not girls can only go to
Forever 21, Far East Plaza. So boring
[Can be replaced by a 4 letter
Colloquial Singaporean English term
starting with the letter S]. A lot of
girls don’t like to shop in Singapore.
There is limited variety and not the
kind they want. Thus we shop online.
It is getting more and more popular
as it is convenient. It works under a
monopolistically competitive market
structure. Also, usually online shops
sell only 1 to 2 pieces per dress, so
you know it is unique. If others never
see what you’ve bought before, they
will ask you where you buy it from.
So there is satisfaction too. – from
11S7H who prefers to remain anonymous
I only shop when I need something.
Otherwise, no. – Dominic Cheong,
11S7F
I usually shop for ointments and
books which are necessities, as well
as sports attire. For ointments, I get
it every week because it runs out
quickly. For books, I buy them once a
month, and for sports attire, I buy
them once every 3 months. But if I
have more pocket money, I’ll spend on
other stuff. I think online shopping is
great and awesome as there are
more choices online. You can buy
things you’ll never buy outside as
people queuing behind you will see it,
but you can buy it online with
discretion. Unfortunately I do not
have a credit card. But there are
some limitations as well as there are
lots of pirated and fake goods online.
– Rolu Oyekanmi, 11S7H
OPINIONS
ECONSABLAZE :: 7
I usually shop for necessities at
different supermarkets such as
Carrefour and Sheng Siong and
would want to get goods at the
cheapest price. Sometimes you think
whether it is really worth going
around finding goods at the cheapest
price as there are opportunity costs
involved- wasting time to look around
plus the higher transport fares.
One interesting thing about shopping
is discounts. Sometimes I wonder
whether they are actually discounts.
Stores may mark up the prices of
their goods before offering a discount
at normal prices. Thus one may not
actually get a discount at all. Firms
are able to hide real marginal costs
of production and earn supernormal
profits as there isn’t any scenario
where we have perfect knowledge of
the costs of production involved or
the quality of the products. Also, even
if the goods are really cheaper, we
may be paying for something that
we do not actually need. That really
isn’t saving money at all. – Brandon
Tan, 11S7H
Too many options but too little
money to shop properly in Singapore.
– Kylie Liu, 11A15
I think shopping powers the economy.
I got no money thus although I have
the willingness, there is a lack of
ability. I prefer buying from big firms
as there is brand loyalty, strong
brand name and they got lots of
advertisement. Last year my parents’
income increased, so we purchase
more luxury goods such as sofa. –
Marcel Wong, 11S65
When shopping for clothes one must
first understand what and why he
likes a certain style, and then wear it
with pride and purpose in order to
achieve satisfaction for whatever he
spends on. – Solomon Poon, 11S79
Inflation rate is too high in Singapore.
Singaporeans turn to shopping
overseas and let the Chinese and
Indonesians propel our economy. –
Mao Shiyuan, 11S75
I like shopping for inferior goods! –
Oh Xin Hoon, 11S63
I hate shopping. It's a matter of
tastes and preferences. – Pang Si Hui
11S7F
Head to Page 16 for the article Shop Till
You Drop
FEATURED ARTICLE
8 :: ECONSABLAZE
Still Learning
By Ling Xin Chuan
Higher education does not come
cheap. With tuition fees easily going
into the tens of thousands, (not taking
into account the living costs that come
along with dormitory life), it can be
seen that higher education is rather
expensive.
Why then, do so many continue to
want it; and not simply “want” it, but in
many contexts (undeniably inclusive of
the local one) pursue it so ardently,
devoting significant amounts of their
time and effort to attain it?
This is because, with higher education,
comes a recognition of your academic
achievements or the acknowledgement
of attaining the necessary skillset in a
particular field. It increases
employability and hence, a potentially
higher degree of economic security, so
that your future is not all that
endangered. Hence, the opportunity
cost of not having higher education
seems to be rather substantial, as it
might block pathways for future career
advancement and compromise the
security of an individual’s future. But
with figures such as fees close to half a
million for studying abroad in the UK,
is it really that worthwhile an
investment?
There have been numerous stories of
college dropouts who have made it big.
The most publicized of which include
Bill Gates (founder of Microsoft and
the 2nd wealthiest person alive), Mark
Zuckerberg (CEO of Facebook) and the
late Steve Jobs (co-founder of Apple).
These men have all not completed
college and yet continued to set up
some of the world’s most successful
corporations and became some of the
world’s wealthiest people. In this case,
the opportunity cost of higher
education (or rather not having higher
education) becomes a three to six year
delay time obstructing people from
realizing their full potential. This is
most aptly put in Hayley Dunphy’s
words on popular sitcom, Modern
Family, as “If you had gone to college
you would have just done that 4 years
later. Or never.”
But one must realize that such stories
are the minority and not the norm.
Another way of looking at it is that
what higher education transcribes it
not necessarily limited to just a piece
of laminated paper that promises
higher employability or skill sets that
may or may not even be relevant in the
career of your choosing; higher
FEATURED ARTICLE
ECONSABLAZE :: 9
education also changes the individual
fundamentally and ultimately gives the
individual an opportunity to grow and
develop within its framework. This
allows the individual to open
himself/herself up to more
opportunities and broaden their
horizons. Many may argue that such
opportunities for individual growth
and development can be found
elsewhere, on your own,
notwithstanding higher education, and
this is indisputably true. However,
higher education is still a prodigious
gateway for that experience- more
accessible, plausible and meritocratic
than other gateways (such as the
radical notion of going on an endless
journey of self discovery around the
world).
What is presented in this article is but
a small agglomeration of different
ways of looking at higher education.
How higher education is ultimately
perceived is still dependent on the
individual. The opportunity cost of
having or not having higher education
is also relative to the individual. Be it
individual development, higher
employability or even an unnecessary
lag time, the investment that is higher
education is ultimately dependent on
the individual himself to decide
whether or not the said “investment”
was worthwhile, and whether or not it
was sufficient in reaping gains.
Read on to gain an insight on why our
seniors chose to further their education
in universities.
References
Dunphy, H. (Performer) (2011). Punkin chunkin
[Television series episode]. In Lloyd, C. (Executive
Producer), Modern Family . ABC.
The most successful college dropouts in history.
(2009). Retrieved from
http://www.retireat21.com/blog/the-most-
successful-college-dropouts-in-history
Articles from education,tuition fees, the guardian).
(2012). Retrieved from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/tuition-fees
FEATURED ARTICLE
10 :: ECONSABLAZE
Nettie Choo Studying Law at University of Oxford
What was the greatest motivation behind
your decision to choose the university of
your choice?
Since I was set on pursuing a
professional degree (law), my options
were naturally narrowed down to
either local universities or the UK. A
myriad of factors contributed to my
eventual decision – location, future
prospects, reputation – but in the end
I think reputation played the largest
role. Oxford is one of the best
universities in the world to read law.
I also like the philosophical slant
unique to its Jurisprudence course.
Why did you choose the overseas option
over the local option?
I guess it would be a lie to say that
reputation does not feature strongly
in this. Both international and local
firms value Oxford law students
highly.
I also really wanted the overseas
experience. Last December, I had the
opportunity to visit the university
and I fell in love with the place. The
beautiful school compound – uniquely
English architecture and amazing
parks – also became a huge pull-
factor in the end.
Lastly, I think I also wanted a change
of environment. Going overseas will
not be easy but I am simultaneously
excited and nervous for what is to
come. I trust that it will be a
challenging and fruitful experience.
What would you think would be your
greatest challenge while you are in an
overseas environment?
It would have to be living on my own,
definitely. I am also very reluctant to
leave my friends and family behind,
even if it is only for a few years.
Any advice to juniors regarding the
decision making process?
I think it is most important to make
a decision that is truly yours. A lot of
the time, pragmatic considerations or
the viewpoints of others might seem
to resonate strongly but at the end
of the day, you will be the one who
suffers (or benefits) from the
decision. Financial considerations
aside, it is your education and thus
your choice to make.
FEATURED ARTICLE
ECONSABLAZE :: 11
It might also be wise to decide early.
Working towards a specific, tangible
goal helps significantly in your
application.
Amaris Lim Shu Min Studying Medicine at NUS
What was the greatest motivation behind
your decision to choose the university of
your choice?
NUS is currently the only university
in Singapore offering the medical
course, and I really wanted to study
medicine, so I chose NUS over NTU
and SMU :)
Why did you choose the local option
over the overseas option?
There is no scholarship for students
who want to study medicine, and an
overseas education for medicine in
UK or Australia would cost about
500K. Medicine in USA is only offered
as a post-grad course so it isn’t really
an option. Although universities in UK
are said to offer a better education in
medicine, I think it's really a lot more
expensive than studying medicine in
Singapore (about 100+K) so I did not
think that it was worth the money.
Going overseas to study also means
giving up the comforts of life in
Singapore, and it means not seeing
your friends and family for a long
time too!
What would you think would be your
greatest challenge while you are in an
overseas environment?
I think having to be independent is
one of the hardest things about
studying overseas. We have to really
learn to take care of ourselves
because we don’t have our family
there to look out for us. We also
have to learn to adapt to a whole
new environment, and learn how to
adapt to new cultures and new ways
of life, which may be daunting
initially. Studying abroad will also
mean that we have to cope with
different styles of learning, because
schools overseas may use different
methods of teaching that we may
not be used to.
Any advice to juniors regarding the
decision making process?
Just apply overseas when you have
the chance! The application process
will allow you to gain experience and
help you greatly when you apply to
local universities! Especially if you're
applying to Medicine, attending
interviews by the UK university will
give you more confidence and help
FEATURED ARTICLE
12 :: ECONSABLAZE
you learn more for the NUS
interviews :) A place in an overseas
university is a very good back-up,
even if you are applying to local
universities. Ultimately, you just have
to weigh the pros and cons and
consider what's important to you! :)
All the best!
Ng Li Ki Studying Philosophy, Politics and
Economics (PPE) at University of
Oxford
What was the greatest motivation behind
your decision to choose the university of
your choice?
Being a debater, ideas fascinate me.
The crossroads between philosophy,
politics and ethics lies where my
academic interests are. The course
melds the quantitative rigour of
economics and logic (within
philosophy) with the qualitative
reasoning of other course options.
This I feel is a rounded development
of the mind, without compromising
depth or rigour. Oxford is the
birthplace of the course, and is
distinguished by its adoption of the
tutorial system - whereby your work
is critiqued in front of you by experts
in the field. This mode of learning, I
feel, promotes genuine understanding
of the material through your
personal lens.
Also, an education in the UK is only 3
years long, leaving the option of a
Masters' fairly open.
Why did you choose the overseas option
over the local option?
For the challenge, in short. There are
few better opportunities to immerse
yourself in a foreign culture and
expand your horizons, as well as to
get a better assessment of your
limits as an individual. It's part of a
voyage of self-discovery, and choosing
adventure helps with that. 'Not all
that glitters is gold, not all who
wander are lost' - studying overseas
isn't quite wandering, but I do feel it'll
help me find my bearing better.
What would you think would be your
greatest challenge while you are in an
overseas environment?
Geographical distance and its
attendant problems would be the
greatest challenge. Much as
technologies like Whatsapp and
Skype have become increasingly
prevalent, there is no substitute for
regular meet-ups and physical
proximity. The support networks that
I've grown to become comfortable
FEATURED ARTICLE
ECONSABLAZE :: 13
with will no longer be as robust or
relevant to me. This would entail
having to grow out of my comfort
zone.
Any advice to juniors regarding the
decision making process?
Consider more than just the opinions
of your direct seniors, or people who
are immediately convenient to talk to.
Make an effort to speak to seniors
who're already attending the
universities you're looking at, or those
who have graduated. Enrich your
perspectives before making a
commitment. Spend time researching
your options, and discuss them with
your friends. Often they will have a
very good idea of what suits your
personality, or what would be good
for you.
THE COVER STORY
14 :: ECONSABLAZE
Breaking the Bank of
England By Phang Zheng Xun
Suppose 1 British pound (GBP) = 3
Singapore dollars (SGD). You believe
that SGD will appreciate, so you sell
GBP 100 to buy SGD 300.
Months later, the exchange rate
becomes GBP 1 = SGD 2. Now you sell
the SGD 300 you own to buy GBP 150.
Since you started with GBP 100, your
profit is GBP 50.
However, if SGD depreciates e.g. GBP 1
= SGD 5, then the SGD 300 you own
can only buy GBP 60. This implies a
loss of GBP 40.
Furthermore, currency speculators
usually do not own that GBP 100 to
begin with, and they need much more
than that to make a meaningful profit
from small changes in currency values.
Hence, they often use what is called
"leverage".
For example, one may borrow GBP
100,000 by putting up USD 5000 as
collateral. If losses from speculation
become comparable to the value of
the collateral (USD 5000), then he must
either offer more collateral or exit this
trade with losses.
Such leverage can magnify profits or
losses. In the scenario above, the
speculator could profit GBP 50,000 if
the SGD appreciates, by investing only
USD 5000. This percentage return is
larger than that of profiting GBP 50 by
investing GBP 100.
Nonetheless, if the SGD depreciates
then the speculator could have lost all
USD 5000 (or even more if he gave
more collateral instead of closing the
trade). This percentage loss is greater
than that of losing GBP 40 from a GBP
100 investment.
Who broke the Bank of
England?
George Soros is a currency speculator,
known for "breaking the Bank of
England". He short sold £10 billion and
profited about £1 billion when the
pound devalued on 16 Sept 1992. How
did that happen?
The European Exchange Rate
Mechanism (ERM) was a system to
THE COVER STORY
ECONSABLAZE :: 15
minimise exchange rate fluctuations in
Europe. Member countries agree to
peg their currencies to the deutsche
mark (DM). This stability sets the stage
for introduction of a common currency;
the euro. In 1990, Britain entered the
ERM at 1 GBP = 2.95 DM.
At that time, Germany faced high
demand-pull inflation after the
reunification of East and West
Germany. Bundesbank (German central
bank) kept interest rates high to
mitigate inflation. Foreigners were
induced to deposit funds in Germany
to earn higher interest, thus raising
demand for DM and causing it to
appreciate.
All member nations of ERM then have
to raise interest rates to prevent their
currency from depreciating against the
DM. However, the Bank of England
faced a dilemma as Britain had a
recession in the early 1990s, so they
needed to lower interest rates.
In 1992, currency speculators like
George Soros believed that Britain
could not remain in the ERM for long.
If Britain leaves the ERM to employ an
expansionary monetary policy, then
GBP will depreciate. In expectation of
this, speculators started selling GBP
massively.
To support the GBP, the Bank of
England had to buy as much GBP as
possible with its foreign currency
reserves. Britain later realised that this
was unsustainable and left the ERM on
16 Sept 1992, causing GBP to crash.
The Bank of England lost £3.4 billion
from its attempt to defend the GBP.
Britain does not use the euro today
since it exited the ERM.
References
Upton, M. (24 Sep 2009). A brief history of Black
Wednesday. The Open University. Retrieved from
http://www.open.edu/openlearn/tags/black-
wednesday
THE BIG STORY
16 :: ECONSABLAZE
Shop Till You Drop
By Kong Wilson
During the recent Great Singapore Sale
2012, many people would have taken a
short break to shop for some great
deals out there. With international
megastores like Uniqlo and H&M
hitting Singapore’s malls, shopping has
certainly become a favourite pastime
for most Singaporeans. The desire to
shop is able to defy common logics
and make people behave uncommonly,
yet, has anybody taken a step back and
wondered what are the economic
concepts involved in shopping?
Most of us share this common
experience, we start shopping with a
well-defined shopping list in mind, but
end up buying more than what’s on
that list. This seemingly natural habit
underlines a fundamental economic
cost – the confusion between need
and want. More often than not, we visit
shopping malls to stock up on
essentials, goods that we truly need.
However, once we are in malls seeing
the wide range of product on sale, our
minds get clouded and start mistaking
wants as needs. We then end up
regretting over an impulsive purchase
which is of no use to us. Thus, it’s not
uncommon to see people selling their
2nd hand clothes which have not been
worn even once online. The inability to
differentiate between needs and wants
causes us to spend unnecessarily,
which in turn translates into economic
cost.
After deciding on what to buy, the next
stop would definitely be the cashier.
During sale season in particular, there
will always be a long queue in front of
the cashier counter, and we just have
to wait for our turn. This queuing
process highlights another economic
cost involved in shopping. Pay close
attention to those queuing the next
time you visit a shopping mall. The
chance is, you will observe that most of
them are not doing anything
productive – staring blankly at the
cashier, complaining about the long
queue, or simply standing there not
doing anything. This considerable
amount of time spent on queuing can
be used more effectively to get more
things done. Thus, by choosing to join
in long queues, they are forgoing the
next best alternative way to spend this
time, which highlights the high
opportunity cost involved in the
process of shopping.
Despite all these economics costs,
shopping is still embraced by people
THE BIG STORY
ECONSABLAZE :: 17
around the world because it leads to a
more than proportional increase in
national income through increased
consumption. In an economy,
everybody is both a seller and a buyer.
An autonomous injection of consumer
spending will lead to an increase in the
income of the boutique owner for
instance, who will then be induced to
increase his consumption on other
goods, e.g. food, and this increase in
the income of the hawker will further
induce him to spend on other goods.
These rounds of spending and re-
spending will continue until the
withdrawal equals the initial injection.
This scenario exemplifies the concept
of multiplier effect.
Moreover, shopping enhances the
societal welfare because it allows
consumers to enjoy a greater variety of
goods and services. As Singaporeans
gradually become wealthier, they
demand wider choices and better
quality products, hence providing an
incentive for retailers to differentiate
their products. As a result, most retail
industries in Singapore operate in a
monopolistic competition, with many
small firms producing differentiated
products and their behaviours being
independent of each other. Take
boutiques for example, there is not
one boutique which dominates the
market and dictates our choice of
clothing. We have the flexibility to
shop around in countless boutiques to
look for that perfect piece which suits
our liking and expresses our
individuality. To most people, this is
then the greatest appeal of shopping.
Amazed that your favourite pastime
has so much economic concepts
concealed within? Economics is
present in every aspect of our lives, try
paying closer attention to all the daily
events happening around you, and you
will be shocked at the sheer amount of
economics behind them.
Read more about your schoolmates’ take
on shopping in our Opinions section at
Page 5!
EVENTS BAZAAR
18 :: ECONSABLAZE
Economics Mastermind
By Teoh Jie Shun
The 2012 edition of the Economics
Mastermind was held on the 2nd of
May 2012. The 4 teams (11S63, 6H, 7B
and 7D) previously topped the
Preliminary Round and battled all out
for the ultimate glory in the finals in
front of an enthusiastic audience.
Questions asked during the finals
evolved around topics such as current
economic issues, Financial Literacy and
the Economics Syllabus. Teams first
answered 10 grueling MCQ questions
during the buzzer round, where all 4
teams attained around the same
number of points. The second round
was a speed round consisting of five
metaphorical steps where the objective
of each team was to be the first to
reach the end of the 5 steps. A correct
answer will move the team up a step
while a wrong answer demoted the
team down one step. 11S7D rose to
the peak after winning this round. The
final round consisted of 24 questions,
each of varying difficulty and worth
different number of points. Teams
could also re-direct the question
chosen to other teams as part of their
strategy. If the team who is directed
the question answers it correctly, they
will earn double the number of points
the question is worth. In addition,
these points will be deducted from the
team who chose the question. 11S7D
was heavily targeted during this round
by other teams, but converted this
danger to their advantage. Ultimately,
there could only be one winner, and
11S7D walked away as champions.
More pictures on the next page.
Try out sample questions on Page 21.
Our Champions – 11S7D! (above) and 1st
Runner-Up (below)
EVENTS BAZAAR
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10 Questions from the Economics Mastermind
Q1) A fall in the price of leather could be due to
A) The government imposing a
minimum price below the free market
price.
B) A rise in the demand for beef.
C) A fall in rental rates incurred by
leather manufacturing firms in the short
run
D) A rise in the quantity supplied of
leather
Q2) A common disadvantage of buying a house
is:
A) Few financial benefits
B) Limited mobility
C) Restrictions on decorating and having
pets
D) Conditions in the lease
Q3) Under monopolistic competition, long run
economic profits tend towards zero because of
A) Product differentiation
B) The lack of barriers to entry
C) Excess capacity
D) Inefficiency
Q4) Investments that may be difficult to convert
to cash quickly have a high _______ risk
A) Inflation
B) Economic
C) Income
D) Liquidity
Q5) Bankruptcy refers to the process of
A) Obtaining permission to be late with
credit payments
B) Obtaining assistance from a financial
planner
C) Using court action to reduce or
eliminate your debts
D) Using court action to have payments
owed deducted from your pay cheque
Q6) Which of the following assets is most
vulnerable to inflation risk?
A) Stock
B) Real estate
C) Currency
D) Commodity
Q7) The diagram below shows the demand and
supply curves for a good. The government
imposes a specific tax of $2 per unit. As a result,
equilibrium quantity drops to 800 units.
What is the after-tax revenue of producers?
A) 24,000
B) 38,400
C) 40,000
D) 48,400
Q8) An investor buys a stock with a high dividend.
Suddenly, it drops 15% a day. The portfolio
manager cannot find any apparent reason for the
sharp fall. The company’s reply states there is
nothing wrong with the market and no
company’s announcement pending. What risk is
this?
A) Interest risk
B) Price risk
C) Market risk
D) Company risk
Q9) At the start of the year, the Deutschmark-
Sterling exchange rate is DM 3.64: Pound 1.
During the year prices increase by 12% in the UK
and by 4% in Germany.
According to the Purchasing Power Parity theory,
what will be the Deutschmark-Sterling exchange
rate at the end of the year?
Q10) According to the purchasing power parity
theory differences in the interest rates in this
country compared with other countries causes
changes in the foreign exchange value of a
country’s currency. (True / False)
1.B, 2.B, 3.B, 4.D, 5.C, 6.C, 7.B, 8.B, 9. DM
3.38 : Pound 1, 10.False
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EU Trip 2012
By Benjamin Toh
On 20th May, 15 of us departed for a
trip to Central Europe that would take
us to Finland, Switzerland, France and
Germany. This trip came at a
particularly volatile time for Europe,
which is currently receiving much
global attention over its Eurozone
crisis. Our objectives for the trip were
cut out for us – to gather first-hand
experience and information into the
specific topic that each group of 3 had
to research into.
The first stop was Finland. It actually
served as a point of transit for our
flight from Singapore to Europe.
During our 10 hours in Helsinki, we
attended a talk by Finnair, the airline
that we had flown with, and learnt
more about its green efforts to cut
down on energy usage, yet meanwhile
still maintaining its high service
standards. We also learnt about
Finnair’s business model and its
ambitions to serve as the air transport
hub between Europe and Asia, taking
advantage of Helsinki’s convenient
location in Europe to make a transit
stop at. We then toured the city of
Helsinki and got a personal experience
of the city voted as the world’s most
liveable city.
After a short transit flight, we arrived at
Geneva, the French-speaking region of
Switzerland. We visited Geneve Finance
at the heart of Geneva’s Financial
Centre and listened to an informative
talk by its Managing Director about
the attractiveness of Swiss’s banks,
well-known for their high degree of
secrecy and security, as well as how the
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financial industry drives the economic
engine of Switzerland. Our speaker
also tackled questions asked by us,
such as the reasons for Switzerland’s
decision not to join the European
Union (the Swiss believe in upholding
their national sovereignty), as well as
adopt the Euro as the currency (the
Franc was a strong currency and there
was little reason to adopt the Euro, a
weaker one then). After the talk, we
had a short city tour of Geneva, which
gave much insight into a city with one
of the highest standards of living in the
world. We rounded off our trip in
Geneva with a visit to the Palais des
Nations, the Geneva branch of the
United Nations, which served as “the
arms of the United Nations” by
executing the UN’s charters. This is in
contradistinction to New York, the
official headquarters of the UN, which
served as “the brain” as aptly put by
our tour guide.
On our bus ride to Zurich, the German-
speaking region of Switzerland, we had
a short school visit to
Aiglon College, an
international boarding
school located at the
foot of the Alps. The
school hosts students
from all over the world
and is a true epitome of
globalization. The fact
that no nationality
dominates the student
population, mentioned by our guide, is
more than sufficient proof of that. We
got an insight into the differences
between the way the school curriculum
is conducted in Aiglon and that in Hwa
Chong from the school trip. One thing
that made us green with envy was that
the students had the opportunity to ski
in the Alps as part of their PE
curriculum, obviously aided by the
close proximity of the beautiful
mountains. Zurich, as mentioned by
our speaker at Geneve Finance, was a
different form of financial centre from
Geneva as it mainly dealt with
reinsurance and related policies
compared to the private banking-
dominated industry in Geneva. We
visited the Zurich National Museum
and gained a better understanding
into the long and celebrated history of
the city of Zurich. That concluded our
time spent in Switzerland and off we
departed to Strasbourg, located along
the border of the Franco-German
border. Strasbourg was a relatively
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small town, and might not possess the
glamour and fame of Paris. Yet, it
remains as one of the most important
towns in France as it is the seat of the
European Parliament. Even so,
Strasbourg is relatively laidback, which
belies the importance of the town.
With that we ended our trip in France
and headed for Germany, the
economic superpower of Europe. We
visited the Mercedes museum, which
proudly showed off its long history of
innovation and huge collection of
classy cars that remain popular
amongst people. Next, we visited the
famous city of Munich. Our first stop
was the BMW Welt (German for World)
and BMW Museum, which showcased
BMW’s own tradition of technological
advancements and focus on the
production of high-end cars. The 2
museum visits gave much intimate
understanding into the highly
competitive car market in Germany,
dominated by premium local car
manufacturers such as Volkwagen,
Porsche, Audi, Mercedes and BMW
itself. We also visited the Munich City
Museum, which underscored Munich’s
long history. It also described Munich’s
contributions to the Nazi movement
under the Third Reich and also the
resistance efforts to the fascist regime.
It was unfortunate that our stay in
Munich coincided with public holidays
in Germany, although it was
fascinating to see its premium
shopping district, not dissimilar to that
of Singapore’s own Orchard Road, with
almost all its shops closed, just like
Chinese New Year in Singapore. As a
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result, our original plans were
dashed and we made a trip to
Allianz Arena, home to FC
Bayern Munich and the host of
the Champions League Final
several days earlier, instead.
The trip had greatly enhanced
our understanding of the
European Union and the
differences of the standards and
costs of living in the various
member countries. It had also
allowed us to better understand
the history and the long
traditions of the various cities we
had visited. The visit had also
fostered opportunities for us to
collect primary empirical data
and information with regards to
our areas of research. Lastly but
certainly not the least, we had
certainly made
new friends in a
new land and
bettered the
understanding of
current ones.
Read the diaries
of other
participants on
this page and the
next.
Europe's a beautiful place to visit – and when
you think about the crisis that has beset this
community, it is indeed saddening. When talking
to some of the locals, especially those in
Germany, you get a sense of discontent and
unhappiness towards the continued bailouts
that Germany has been sponsoring.
That, however, shouldn't take anything away
from the rich and diverse culture in Europe, nor
the experiences we had in climbing cathedrals or
appreciating the picturesque and rustic scenery.
One of the highlights of the trip was definitely
the visits to the two automobile museums:
Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. We learnt
about the many ways as to how both
companies attempted to assert their own form
of market dominance through the marketing of
different lifestyles.
My favourite part of the trip was when we got
to explore things by ourselves – by trying new
foods, or even planning our own trip to the
Allianz Arena when we realized that our plans
had to be cancelled due to the Public Holidays in
Europe.
-Chee Yuan Jun, 11S69
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In a nutshell, this trip was a whirlwind of excitement, adventure and learning. Touring 4
countries in a narrow span of 10days and attempting to glean as much as possible from that
brief stint in some of the most breathtaking places I had ever been to was a phenomenal
experience.
The entire experience in European countries was vastly different from what one would have
gleaned in Asian countries. In the shops, paper bags were widely adopted, plastic bags required
extra charge, the cashiers and service personnel were upbeat, jovial and friendly as we cleaned
their shelves of Haribo, chocolate and ice-cream. On the roads, bicycles could be seen having
free rein, trams weaved seamlessly across traffic on designated tram lines, congestion was
not an issue, and the vast majority of vehicles did not sport Japanese logos. Food was almost
always downed with light beers. (Which was a cheaper alternative to water!) Although prices
of food were relatively exorbitant, the Swiss chocolates/croissants, French pastries/cake,
German bratwurst/pork knuckle more than justified the prices. Nary could a skyscraper be
seen, but rather the sparse skyline was dotted with magnificent cathedrals that bespoke an
ancient and glorious past. At the top of these cathedrals (yes they let you climb them) the
unparalled view goes on for miles. In the French countryside, we woke up at 4am to watch the
sunrise and look at alpaca-esque animals. In the German suburbs, we practised dunking using
water bottles. The list goes on and on.
Of course, one does not simply go on an Economics trip without learning about the Europe
economy! We explored the Geneva Financial Centre, one of the world leading centres of
banking, automobile firms such as BMW and Mercedes Benz, both cornerstones of the
German economy. We also experienced firsthand the importance of innovation and creativity,
concepts very much reiterated in H2 syllabus.
This was an experience like no other, enriching yet inordinately exciting. “Croissant Croissant
Croissant”
-Eugene Lim, 11S77
This trip had certainly been an eye-opener.
Learning about the situation of the crisis from
news articles is one thing, and being physically
present in those countries directly involved in it is
yet another experience altogether. The finance
talks by the respective companies/institutions we
have visited, such as the Geneve Place Financiere,
allowed us to gain deeper insights into the
myriad of issues at hand, and provided us with
the perfect opportunity to find out more about
the respective organizations.
-Crystal Ong, 11A15
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Humanities Week 2012
30JULY-05AUG2012 By Ang Jia Xi
“Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your
captain speaking…”
Welcome aboard the annual Hwa
Chong Humanities Week, jointly by the
Hwa Chong Arts Department and the
Economics EXCO! This year’s
Humanities Week explored a variety of
issues surrounding the central theme
of Europe – from austerity measures in
the EU and PIGS (Portugal, Italy,
Greece, Spain), to the diverse History
and Geography of the area.
The week began with exhibitions in the
Inner Plaza about the EU, by our peers
who visited the region during the June
Holidays. Previously, these students
also conducted a presentation about
their various research projects during
the C2 Humanities Week Economics
lecture.
On Wednesday, the Economics
Odyssey brought fellow JC1 students
together in an intense and exciting
battle. Participants sailed through a
(quirkily) unique European-themed
journey involving pails of water,
creative expression, junk bonds,
telepathy and of course, Economics! It
was always particularly exciting to
watch when one had to answer the
question, “Spell ceteris paribus” during
a challenge. Despite heavy rain right
before the event, Odyssey 2012 still
managed to end off with a blast and
lots of fun.
We would like to thank the participants
of the various activities for their
enthusiastic participation, and hope
that this year’s Humanities Week has
been an enjoyable and enriching
experience for all. Beyond all the fun
and laughter, we also hope that the
activities will serve as a starting point
for your own journey of discovery into
the sometimes bizarre, but always
wonderful world of the humanities.
The calling of the humanities is to
make us truly human in the best
sense of the word. – J. Irwin Miller
More photos on the following pages.
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POSTCARDS FROM
EUROPE! ECONOMICS ODYSSEY 01 AUGUST 2012
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BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
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Block Test Answers
By our dear teachers and students
C1 Block Test 1 Good Sample Scripts 30 Answer Scheme 38 C2 Block Test 2 Good Sample Scripts 66 Answer Scheme 72
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C1 Block Test 1 – Good Sample Scripts Paper 1
b) (ii) Discuss the usefulness of demand elasticity concepts in explaining the strategies adopted by Apple to maximise its profit level. [8] Answer by Alethea Tan 12A14
Demand elasticity concepts allow firms to consider price, output and reactive strategies in order to maximize profits. Price Elasticity of Demand (PED), Income Elasticity of Demand (YED) and Cross Elasticity of Demand (CED) can be used to explain Apple’s profit maximizing strategies. PED is the degree of responsiveness of quantity demand of a product in response to a change in its own price, ceteris paribus. If PED>1, demand is price elastic and if PED<1, demand is price inelastic. The PED for Apple products can be considered to be price elastic, such that a change in price results in a more than proportionate change in quantity demanded. This is because there are many substitutes available with many other companies such as Microsoft and Blackberry producing similar devices. As such, Apple’s strategy to sell the iPad 2 at $100 cheaper can be explained by PED concepts as a decrease in price will lead to a more than proportionate change in quantity demanded leading to an overall increase in revenue. However, PED may not be relevant as Apple may only be cutting the price of the iPad in order to clear inventories at minimal loss. YED is the degree of responsiveness of demand for a good to a change in consumer income, ceteris paribus. The YED value for Apple products is >1 since it is a luxury good such that a change in consumer income will lead to a more than proportionate change in demand. This concept can be used to explain Apple’s launch of several new products consistently on a yearly basis, especially in 2011; which also saw 3.5% growth in the world’s real GDP growth, indicating an increase in consumer income. Apple’s decision to produce improved products could be seen as a response to the trend of increasing consumer income, where they increase output of luxury goods in order to create a more than proportionate change in demand, thus maximizing profits. More importantly, Apple’s launch of the iPad can be seen as a shift to the output of luxury goods, as an iPad is not seen as a necessity the way computers are. However, judging from the increasing affluence of consumers, the increased output of such goods is bound to increase profit. However, YED may not be relevant as Apple may have developed and produced the iPad in response to consumer tastes and preferences, with a desire for increased protability. Moreover, Apple could have been considering entering the tablet PC market anyway, regardless of consumer income changes, and its entry merely coincided with the steady increase in consumer income. Therefore, YED may not be that useful in explaining Apple’s strategies. CED can also explain Apple’s strategies if one assumes that competitors
Marker’s Comments: More evidence needed on Microsoft and Blackberry Link to total revenue
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have slashed prices, since CED is the degree of responsiveness of demand to a change in price of another good, ceteris paribus. In order to differentiate themselves, Apple has developed iTunes and the App store which are “exclusively” for Apple users. This product differentiation could be explained by Apple’s need to increase CED value of its own products and competitors’ products such that the demand for Apple products will not be affected by decreases in competitors’ products. However, the iTunes and App store is a necessary complement to Apple products, and with a strong focus on consumers, Apple could merely be attempting to deliver a good service as opposed to reacting to rivals. In conclusion, it seems that while demand elasticity concepts are only useful to a limited extent in explaining Apple’s profit maximizing strategies as the company also considers many other factors. Moreover, the ceteris paribus condition does not always hold true and demand may be influenced by other factors such as change in consumer’s tastes and preferences. More importantly, total profits = total revenue – total costs. Demand elasticity concepts do not consider the costs side of the equation and thus may not be very useful in explaining Apple’s strategies to maximize profits.
Link to Fig 1
c) To what extent would China’s restrictions on exports of rare earth metals affect the American economy? [10] Answer by Xu Linfeng 12S7B
China’s restriction on exports of rare earth metals affect the American economy to a large extent. In this analysis, AD-AS model will be used to explained. AD= C+I+G+(X-M) An economy’s actual output is determined by the aggregate demand and aggregate supply of the economy, which refers to the sum of all the demand (supply, respectively) on the goods and services produced in various sectors of the economy. Economic growth include both actual growth (with increase in actual output) and potential growth (increase in productive capacity). With China’s restriction on exports of rare earth metals, it will shift the high manufacturing industries and investments away from America to China. This means the foreign direct investment (FDI) in USA will decrease as investors in order to gain more profits will shift to China due to lower cost of factor of production. Also, the business expectation for this sector of economy of USA will decrease and investment level decreases. Hence the “I” factor of AD decreases, causing leftward shift of AD curve. Also, with less exports of rare earth metal from China to USA, USA’s production of electronic devices will decrease. Hence its ability to export those finished products to overseas will decrease. As the cost of raw material increases, the final electronic products of USA will also have a increase in price leading the increase in its exported goods. Foreigners will import less US electronic goods as USA products are more expensives. Hence “X” factor decreases and since imports of rare earth metals are restricted, “M” factor increases, resulting in “X-M” decreases, hence a leftward shift of AD curve.
Marker’s Comments: Econs analysis of ↓AD? Secondary effect
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Also, since cost of production increases under the assumption that the price level of other goods in USA remains the same, the general price level might increase due to increase in price of electronic products. Since producers shift part of production cost to consumers, causing a upward shift of AS. Also, as there are less investment, the vertical range of AS stay the same since the productive capacity remains unchanged or even decrease. Hence the new equilibrium national income will be Y2, a decrease from original Y1. And USA economy may face negative growth in the short run. In the long run, since investment is reduced, the LRAS does not shift to right significantly. Hence the potential growth is also limited. However, electronic industries only represent part of USA’s entire economy, other sectors of its economy might be still as vibrant as before or even have great growth. Hence the economy of USA might not even slow down. Also, the price level of USA might decrease due to this trend, a good signal for price stability and low inflation. Besides, USA may able to find more domestic resources of rare earth metals and may not be as dependent on importing of those materials as now, hence, such a restriction in the long run may not have a significant effect on USA economy.
Why? Fig 1: US economy Spell out Real National Income Use evidence to support these! Overall conclusion?
Paper 2 - Question 1
The inflation rate in Singapore was recorded at 5.4% in April 2012. Subsequently, the Singapore government announced an additional spending of S$70 million aimed at helping companies transform their businesses to increase productivity. [25] Answer by Bernadette Lee 12S7B
In order to curb inflation in Singapore, which was 5.4% in April 2012, the government has increased its expenditure by S$70 million in order to boost productivity in businesses. This essay will explore how this boost has achieved the goal of curbing inflation and it thus has resulted in an improvement in the standard of living in Singapore. When the government increases its expenditure by S$70 million in order to help companies transform their businesses to increase productivity, as government expenditure is a component of aggregate demand, it will result in increased aggregate demand. However, by increasing the productivity of businesses in Singapore, the potential growth of the economy will increase, that is, the maximum output that can be attained
Marker’s Comments: Link to productive capacity
P1
P2
AD1
General Price Level
AS1
A1
AD2
P1
P2
RNI
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by the economy is now greater. This can be depicted in the diagram below: As seen in the diagram, initially, Singapore’s economy was producing near full capacity, which is Y1. As such, supply bottlenecks were present, and as the increase in aggregate demand was greater than the increase in real national output, as seen by the position of AD, near the vertical range of AS, demand-pull inflation occurred. However, firms could not increase real national output any further as the maximum real national output was reached, worsening the demand pull inflation and resulting in a 5.4% inflation rate. As such, by injecting S$70 million to improve the productive capacity of the economy, the vertical range of the AS curve would shift from AS1 to AS2. As firms could produced more output per unit of labour or capital, increasing productivity means that new technologies can be used in production or existing labour can go for skills upgrading courses or receive further education so they can perform their jobs more efficiently. As such, the vertical range of the AS curve will shift to the right and the upward sloping range would also shift in response to the increased productivity. As this shift is larger than the initial injection of governmental expenditure, it follows that the government will achieve its goal of curbing inflation. This is because AD2 now intersects AS2 at the bottom of the upward sloping range, thus indicating that the supply bottlenecks have been reduced. As such, the increase in general price level over a period of time will be reduced, thus curbing inflation. As the productive capacity of the economy has increased, it can be seen that real national income has also increased by a multiple from Y1 to Y2. This is due to the multiplier effect, where the increase in productivity has created spare capacity such that repeated rounds of expenditure, facilitated by the injection of S$70 million by the government, facilitates the increase in real national income by a multiple. The question is, will this increase in real national income, which is real GDP, brought about by the injection of governmental expenditure, improve the level of welfare of the
Use ruler to draw! Show on the diagram!
Y1 Y2
AS1 AS2
AD1 AD2
General Price
Level
Real National
Income
Fig.1: AD-AS Diagram for Singapore’s economy
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people living in Singapore. On the material side, this may be the case. Material standard of living refers to the quality and quantity of goods and services available to the average resident of a country to consume. As a key indicator of this is real GDP per capita, which indicates an increase in the material standard of living in a country, an increase in real GDP in a country such as Singapore, which has a low population growth rate, may result in an increase in real GDP per capita as it is likely that the real GDP growth rate surpasses the rate of growth of the population. As such, each resident of Singapore would have an increased material standard of living as a result of this measure. However, this may not be the case of the distribution and composition of the increase in real GDP is taken into account. As Singapore is a knowledge-based economy, with high emphasis placed on industries such as the biomedical industry, which employs high-skilled workers, the increase in real GDP may be distributed mainly amongst households, which work in such fields as the bulk of the injection will be used to develop the capital-intensive industries. Workers in labour-intensive industries may be left out, thus the increase in real GDP may not improve their material standard of living. In addition, as the bulk of the injection may have gone into increasing productivity in the capital goods industries, a significant component of the increase in real GDP may have been from the production of capital goods, which are not available to households for consumption. For example, refined oil and other petrochemicals may be of no use for households. As such, there will be little increase on the quantity of goods and services available for consumption. As such, the material standard of living may not necessarily improve. In addition, the non-material standard of living, or quality of life of residents, may not necessarily improve. To increase productivity of workers, they may have to divert their leisure time towards attending skills upgrading courses, thus reducing their time for rest and making them more tired. This reduces their non-material standard of living. Actually, the standard of living in Singapore may not necessarily improve immediately. As improving productivity takes time, such as the time taken to upgrade machinery or to train workers, it will take some time for the increase in real GDP to be felt. In fact, the real GDP may decrease during the upgrading process, as workers are involved in upgrading, thus they have less time to produce output. Old machinery may be decommissioned, further decreasing real GDP. Thus, in the short run, the material standard of living may fall so that upgrading can take place. As such, the material standard of living may not be improved in the short run. However, in the long run, it can be expected that the material standard of living in Singapore will improve. But real GDP is not enough.
Good link Yes! Good! Link to future vs current SOL ? Conclusion? Excellent!
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Paper 2 – Question 2
a) Explain the factors that will affect the extent of the contraction of an economy’s national income when net exports decline. [12] Answer by John Yap 12S7B
In a 4-sector economy, when net exports of the trade balance (represented by X-M) falls, aggregate demand and thus national income would fall by the multiplier effect. The magnitude of the decrease is represented by the multiplier k, and factors that affect this as well as other contributing components of the AD will be analyzed in this essay via AD-AS analysis. When there is an autonomous decrease in net exports, a component of AD, there is a corresponding decrease in income received by workers in the capital good industry. This would then reduce the income they spend on consumer goods by a magnitude dependent on the marginal propensity to consume. This then will decrease the income of households in the consumer goods industry, who will then too decrease their consumption spending on goods and services. This cycle will continue until the decrease in income is negligible, and by then, the national income has decreased by the multiplier k, which is equals to 1 / (1-MPC), or 1/ (MPW). Thus the factors that affect the magnitude of this decrease is the same as that which affects the MPW, which is equals to MPS + MPT + MPM, respectively the marginal propensity to save, of taxation and to import. The MPS is affected by the attitude towards thrift in the society. For instance, in an Asian society like Singapore or Japan, the MPS then tends to be higher. It is also affected by the presence of compulsory saving schemes, such as the Central Provident Fund in Singapore, and also prevailing interest rates, which represent the return of savings, of which an increased interest rates translates to an increased MPS. MPT is also affected by the progressivity of the tax system, as if the decrease in national income is not taxed as heavily, due to the MPT, the resultant multiplier would be lower. MPM is affected by a country’s attitude towards imports. In Singapore, the MPM tends to be quite high as we are an open, resource scarce economy, such that even our exports would require some degree of imports (such as refined oil). Thus, if the MPS, MPT, or MPM is high, the value of the multiplier would then tend to be lower, and the extent of contraction of national income is reduced. The decline in net exports in the preceding analysis is considered as autonomous in nature, which in reality, could affect other components of AD. If net exports decline due an increase in domestic consumption because of other factors, then the decrease in the magnitude of AD is not as large. The preceding analysis also assumes that the economy is below or at full employment equilibrium. When it actually might already be overheating such as in the Chinese economy. In this case, a decline in net exports might actually be welcomed and will contribute to a decrease in general price level without affecting national income significantly. The decline of net exports may also have more short term and long term effects, as if the decline consists of materials required to build infrastructure (e.g. sand and concrete), it may also be a signal of an overall
Marker’s Comments: At YF
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decrease in investment. This would affect the AD and further decrease it, but it would simultaneously decrease productive capacity and thus lead to further contraction of national income in the long run. In conclusion, when trade balance in the form of net exports worsens, national income contracts by the multiplier effect, and thus the extent to contraction is affected by the MPM, MPS and MPT, components of the multiplier. However, such a decrease may be mediated or even worsened if other components of AD assumed to be not affected changed or if the economy is above full employment equilibrium.
Good attempt!
b) Discuss whether a decline in national income necessarily meant that the standard of living for the average person in an economy has also declined. [13] Answer by Melissa Tay 12A14
Standard of living (SOL) refers to the average level of well-being that a citizen of a country has. It consists of two parts: material and non-material SOL. In this essay, I will first show how a decline of national income means that the SOL has decreased materially, then non-materially, and then how a decline of national income does not mean that the SOL has decreased. In this essay, national income refers to real GDP. Material SOL refers to the quality and quantity of goods available to a person for consumption. When national income declines, it means that the real output of the economy has declined, and less goods and services are available for consumption to maintain one’s SOL. As real GDP is being used here, it eliminates the possibility that national income has decreased due to a decrease in general price level without an actual decrease in output. Hence, materially, as there are less goods for consumption, the SOL has declined for an average person. However, a decline in national income does not necessarily mean that SOL has decreased materially either. It also depends on the population growth of the country. If national income has declined, and population has also seen negative growth, then an individual’s share of national income might still increase and SOL as well. For example, in 2009, Singapore had negative GDP growth. However, as there was low population growth rate, the real GDP per capita remained relatively unchanged. Hence, GDP per capita is necessary as well to determine if SOL has fallen. A decline in SOL also depends on the composition of the country’s national income. National income is the sum of the output of both capital and consumption goods, but only consumption goods affect the current SOL of a person. This means that a decline in national income might not lead to lower SOL, if the decline is due to lower output of capital goods. An example is US, which has seen lower GDP growth as its manufacturing industries move to China. However, citizen’s standard of living remains largely the same due to increased imports from China. Hence, the composition of national income is also necessary. The distribution of national income also needs to be considered in determining if a decrease in GDP lowers SOL. If national income is distributed inequitably, then some people could actually see an increase in
Marker’s Comments: Why? So? So? Link to SOL?
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 37
income and therefore an increase in SOL, while others suffer the effects of a reduced income and have lower SOL. An indicator such as the Gini coefficient might be useful in this. National income also does not reveal anything about the non-material standard of living for residents. Non-material SOL refers to the quality of life of residents. If national income has declined, but quality of life improves, then there might not be lower SOL. For example, the number of negative externalities such as pollution might be reduced as a result of lower output in the economy. Hence, people’s health could improve and their SOL actually increases. A reduction in disamenities might also negate the effect of GDP on SOL (People could have more leisure hours), and SOL increases. In conclusion, a decline in national income might not necessarily mean that the SOL for an average person decreases. GDP is an inaccurate measurement of SOL, even with all the factors accounted for. Hence, indicators such as the Human Development Index, which measures real GDP per capita, average life expectancy and literacy rate may be more accurate in assessing SOL instead.
How come? But your chosen indicator was real GDP.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
38 :: ECONSABLAZE
C1 Block Test 1 – Answer Scheme [Paper 1] Main areas for improvement:
You need to master the skill of using case material as evidence to support underlying economic theory.
You are not to use contextual knowledge to answer the questions unless otherwise instructed.
You may use contextual knowledge when you see words such as ‘possible’, ‘likely’, ‘your own
knowledge’ in the questions posed. And even so, you must first exhaust all information given in the
case study before you use contextual knowledge.
Remember, for case studies, you play the role of the JUDGE, where you make your decisions and pass
your judgment based on the evidence presented to you (in the form of the extracts, tables, charts, and
other data).
Read the questions carefully to understand question requirements.
(a) (i) Compare the trend in the prices of the rare earth metals in Figure 1. [2]
Similarities:
Generally prices of all 3 rare earth metals rose (and sharply in 2011) Difference (any 1):
DIFFERENT LEVEL
Price of Terbium was the highest amongst the three rare earth metals
Price of Neodymium was the lowest amongst the three rare earth metals DIFFERENT RATE OF CHANGE Price of Terbium increases at the fastest rate amongst the three rare earth metals
One similarity and one difference must be identified.
Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To test the basic principles used in identifying and comparing
trends.
The question asks for trend so it has to be of broader perspectives and not focus on
the ‘nitty gritty’. Learn to look at the big picture and consider the following:
Direction : All rising/increasing
Pace (slope) : Terbium rising at the fastest pace/rate
Magnitude/Level : Terbium highest price, neodymium lowest Also, learn to use comparative words.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 39
(ii) Suggest a reason for the difference observed in (a)(i). [2]
Reason for difference in LEVEL
Price of Neodymium was the lowest amongst the three rare earth metals
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 3, “Neodymium are more abundant and concentrated” o Explanation: So it is easier and thus cheaper to mine, hence higher supply of
neodymium. OR
Price of Terbium was the highest amongst the three rare earth metals
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 3, “Terbium is the rarest of the rare earth metals, and is getting less plentiful in world’s mining deposits and is harder to extract than the others”
o Explanation: Hence producers will incur higher cost of production, leading to lower supply of Terbium. Thus for any given demand of Terbium, its price will higher.
Reason for difference in RATE OF CHANGE
o Same evidence as above two. o Explanation: Due to limited spare capacity of Terbium, its supply is relatively
price inelastic compared to Neodymium which has more spare capacity. So for any given increase in price (due to increase in demand), price of Terbium will increase the most compared to the other rare earth metals.
NOTE: If the explanation for the difference doesn’t correspond to the difference
stated in (a)(i), no credit will be given, i.e. award 0m.
Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To test understanding that in a market, the relative scarcity of
supply will determine differences in prices.
Answer must be aligned to difference stated in a (i)
Most answers merely stated the evidence by pure lifting, without linking to the
relevant economic concepts of either supply or PES.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
40 :: ECONSABLAZE
(iii) With the aid of a diagram, account for the change in prices of the rare earth metals
in 2011.
[6]
Demand factor [1m]:
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 1, “Global appetite for rare earth metals has more than doubled over the past decade, as ever more devices make use of their unique properties”
o Explanation: Increase in derived demand for rare earth metals due to rise in the demand for final goods that comes about because of development of new products which requires rare earths.
Price inelastic supply of rare earth metals [1m]:
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 3, “new mines still take years to build”. o Explanation: This means that there is low or no immediate available spare
capacity, hence for any increase in price of rare earth metals (due to rightwards shift in demand), the quantity supplied will increase by less than proportionately, ceteris paribus.
Note: For any given change in demand, PES is relevant and should be explained in
conjunction with the former.
Supply factor [1m]:
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 2, “China’s reduction of exports by 40%” o Explanation Fall in market supply due to China’s reduction of exports would lead
to a fall in global supply of rare earth metals. Price inelastic demand for rare earth metals [1m]:
o Evidence: Ext 1 para 3: “There is no viable rare earth substitute.” o Explanation This means that consumers have no alternatives to turn to, hence
for any increase in price of rare earth metals (due to leftwards shift in supply), the quantity demanded will fall by less than proportionately, ceteris paribus.
Note: For any given change in demand, PED is relevant and should be explained in
conjunction with the former.
Diagram + reference [2m]: With reference to Fig 1, when supply of rare earth metals decrease from SS1 to SS2 and demand for rare earth metals increased from DD1 to DD2, this results in an increase in price of rare earth metals from P1 to P2. The price inelastic nature of demand and supply has led to sharp rise in the price of rare earth metals.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 41
Figure 1: Market for rare earth metals Deduct 1 m if not reference made to diagram Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To test understanding of the use of demand, supply and
elasticity concepts to explain sharp price increases.
You need to learn how to STATE the occurrence, then identify the EVIDENCE and then
EXPLAIN the link between the evidence and relevant economic concepts (SEE). Mere
stating of evidence without explanation will warrant zero credit.
There were a handful of students who failed to read instructions properly and drew
three diagrams, one for each rare earth metal. The question asks for a diagram, not
diagrams!
In some cases, the single diagram drawn had 12 different lines - illustrating different
demand and supply curves for each of the rare earth metals mentioned and tried
shifting each one of them in their analysis. It is highly unlikely for examiners to want to
test something so complicated!
Some scripts used information from Extract 2 to support their answers for this
question. Now, this is incorrect as the date of Extract 2 is 2012, whilst the question
specifically asked for 2011. So, really, need to read the question carefully.
Quantity DD1
DD2 P1
P2
Q2 Q1
Price SS2
SS1
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
42 :: ECONSABLAZE
(b) (i) Using relevant data, account for the difference between Apple’s revenue and profit
levels.
[2]
State the difference [1m]:
Fig 2: Revenue in general rises faster than profit, suggesting increasing cost of
production
Reason [1m]:
Ext 1 & Fig 1: Price of rare earth metals have increased over the years. This has
increased cost of production significantly for Apple. Since profit = total revenue –
total costs, with sharp increase in costs, profits hence increased at a slower rate.
Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To test understanding of the relationship between cost, revenue
and profitability.
It should be noted that both revenue and profit appear in Fig 2. So you should realize
that you have to make use of Fig 2 at some point in your answers.
Also, you should also take note that rare earth metals are used by Apple since Apple
produces ‘smartphones and tablet PCs’ which are mentioned in Ext 1 para 1. And from
Fig 1, price of rare earth metals are rising so that is the reason for the slower increase
in Apple’s profit.
However, you cannot really use Extract 2 to explain the increase in revenue as Extract
2 is for 2012 whilst Fig 1 has data till 2011.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 43
(ii) Discuss the usefulness of demand elasticity concepts in explaining the strategies
adopted by Apple to maximise its profit level.
[8]
Approach to the question:
1. Identify the strategies adopted by Apple 2. Thesis: Relevant demand elasticity concepts can be used to explain the strategies. This
means that not all demand elasticity concepts, so only choose the relevant ones. 3. Antithesis: Other reasons, apart from demand elasticity concepts, can be used to explain the
strategies. 4. Evaluation/Stand/Judgment: Limited extent, due to the fact that ceteris paribus is not held
in reality. Also, to maximise profit, cost considerations is necessary. Note the link from (b)(i).
Introduction
Relevant demand elasticity concepts will be examined to discuss whether and to what extent
strategies adopted by Apple will be effective in maximising its profit level. Demand elasticity
concepts are mainly used to maximise total revenue. To maximize profit, cost considerations are
necessary in the analysis.
Strategy: Lowering price for iPad 2 (Ext 2, para 3)
PED concept is useful in explaining Apple’s
pricing policy for iPad 2
PED concept is NOT useful
or less useful
PED is useful (definition & state application).
Ext 2: iPads have many global competitors so with more substitutes entering the market, it’s demand will be price elastic (PED > 1). So a fall in its own price would lead to a more than proportionate increase in quantity demanded, ceteris paribus. Total revenue for Apple will increase. Ceteris paribus, profit will also rise.
One should note that Apple lowered price of iPad 2 when they introduced the new iPad. This is perhaps a strategy to quickly sell away the old or soon-to-be obsolete stocks to make way for the new iPad.
With the new iPad, consumers switch away from iPad 2, leading to a fall in demand for iPad 2, hence its price will fall, ceteris paribus.
Evaluation:
The strategy may enable Apple to tap into another foreign market, where the new iPad has not been
launched yet, so that they can gain market share and then subsequently raise prices in the future to
increase their revenue.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
44 :: ECONSABLAZE
Strategy: Launch of new products (Tables 1 & 2)
YED concept is useful in explaining Apple’s
product launches
YED concept is NOT useful
or less useful
YED is useful (definition & state application).
iPhones and iPads are not likely to be inferior goods and can be considered up-market products with YED > 1 and using YED concepts, they should be launched when there is economic growth, since their demand will increase more than proportionately and hence raising Apple’s total revenue. Ceteris paribus, Apple’s profit will increase. By and large, Apple’s product launch has been consistent with this except for 2009. (Refer to Table 1)
Given that the iPhone’s YED > 1 as it is a more
luxurious phone than basic phone. The demand
for luxurious products would be expected to fall
more than proportionately when income fell
during recession in 2009 as seen in Table 1 and
the timing for introducing the iPhone 3GS would
seem to be wrong.
Evaluation:
However, for the launch of the iPhone 3GS, the ceteris paribus condition did not hold as the iPhone
3GS was deemed by consumers as a fashionable good and a gadget many were looking forward to
having it since it was first introduced in the US in 2007. Though income might be falling, consumer’s
taste and preference resulted in a high demand for iPhone.
Strategy: Product differentiation (Table 1):
Ext 2 para 4: can assume ‘growing competition’ to be price or non-price competition.
CED concept is useful in explaining Apple’s
product differentiation strategy
CED concept is NOT useful
or less useful
CED is useful (definition & state application).
Table 2: Apple keeps launching new and improved products as part of a product differentiation strategy. Assuming that this is a reaction strategy to rival’s pricing policy or pre-empting rival’s actions, and if successful, it may reduce the positive CED value (i.e. degree of substitutability) between Apple and its rivals. This means that it will be able to increase demand and hence total revenue. Ceteris paribus, profit will rise.
Since no info is given on rival’s pricing policy, CED may not be useful.
Such product differentiation strategies may not necessarily be a reaction to rival’s pricing policy but is used primarily to favourably influence the taste and preference of consumers and hence increase the demand for Apple products. Total revenue for Apple will increase. Hence, profit will also rise, assuming no change in costs.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 45
Ext 2, para 3: Given that the apps and music from iTunes and App Store are exclusive and cheap, and given that they are complements to the devices, this means the CED value is highly negative. This will increase demand of Apple devices and hence total revenue. Ceteris paribus, profit will rise.
Evaluation:
Whether Apple can eventually maximise revenue and hence profit from the product differentiation strategy will depend on how receptive consumers are to Apple’s products. The fact that Apple’s profits have increased rather exponentially since 2005 would suggest that their strategies have worked well relative to its rivals’ strategies.
Overall evaluation / Stand
Demand elasticity concepts can only explain Apple’s strategies to maximise profit to a limited extent.
Other factors can also explain their strategies.
From Fig 1, price of rare earth metals (raw material) was rising substantially in 2010 and 2011. Hence
costs of production for Apple would also have increased by a very large extent. Whether Apple can
eventually raise profit will depend on the extent of the increase in demand (ie total revenue) vs the
increase in cost of production.
Mark scheme
L3 L2 + reasoned overall judgment supported by sound economic analysis
L2
For an adequate and in-depth economic analysis of the effectiveness of any TWO of Apple’s
strategies with good and relevant references and application to the context. Use of relevant
elasticity concepts is evident.
Max Low L2 for an answer that has adequate scope but depth is lacking
Max Low L2 for an in-depth answer which is lop-sided (no anti-thesis)
Max Mid L2 for generic anti-thesis (eg. general statements on cost of production and ceteris paribus condition not realistic)
L1
For an answer that has identified the strategies but is descriptive or lacking in economic analysis
or analysis have major conceptual flaws.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
46 :: ECONSABLAZE
Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To test application of demand elasticity concepts to marketing strategies in
terms of the firm’s pricing and output decisions.
Note that for all elasticity concepts, one has to assume that there must be a trigger to elicit a
response. In other words, the key idea behind the concept is “responsiveness…to a stimulus”. It would
be meaningless to talk about “responsiveness” without a trigger or stimulus.
3 types of trigger / stimulus
PED is used to determine pricing policy (to increase total revenue). Trigger = change in Price. Evidence: Apple sold iPad 2 at $100 cheaper
YED is used to determine output decisions – whether to sell inferior or non-inferior high end goods. Trigger = change in income. Evidence: Table 2 product launches correspond to economic growth shown in Table 1.
CED is used to determine reaction strategies e.g. counter-marketing or joint marketing strategies. Trigger = change in prices of substitutes/complements. Evidence: iTune and App Store cheaper for Apple users. Either joint or counter-marketing strategy.
Note that the trigger/stimulus could be ‘actual’ (e.g. apple cut price of ipad by $100) or ‘potential’
(e.g. embarked on product differentiation to protect sales in case rival cut their prices).
Need to learn how to use evidence provided in the case to support explanation. Many scripts used
contextual knowledge to justify the PED of the iPad without using evidence. This resulted in incorrect
analysis.
The command word of ‘discuss’ requires a thesis / anti-thesis / evaluation structure, which
disappointingly many scripts failed to do so. Hence L1 marks were awarded as a result. Best answers
were able to elaborate on instances when Apples pricing and product differentiation policies had
NOTHING to do with the concepts of demand elasticity.
In addition, many scripts did not link to profit levels. Many simply stopped the analysis at total
revenue. Such scripts have not actually answered the questions fully and again marks are lost due to
careless reading of the question.
For evaluations, the usual ones were observed: ceteris paribus and cost considerations were ignored.
Most answers tend to be generic without specific reference to the case material. It should be noted
that (b)(ii) and (b)(i) are linked so the answers should rightfully link back to the rising price of rare
earth metals as increasing cost of production for Apple. And hence demand elasticity concepts alone
will not be sufficient to account for profit maximization.
For those who drew diagrams to illustrate the difference in total revenues, you need to make sure
Area B > Area A visually.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 47
(c) To what extent would China’s restrictions on exports of rare earth metals affect the
American economy?
[10]
Approach to the question:
1. Clarify that the answer will look into the effects of the action on America’s 4 macro-goals. 2. State the effect of China’s actions on the global supply of rare earth metals, which will raise price
of rare earth metals – answer from (a)(iii) 3. Thesis: Using AD-AS analysis, to explain impact on America’s 4 macro-goals 4. Antithesis / Evaluation: Explain the extent of the effects. 5. Overall judgment: Limited extent.
Introduction
Thesis: negative effects
Effects on AS
Ext 1: America is biggest importer of rare earth metals, which is an essential factor input for its
production of high-tech goods. So China’s exports restrictions will raise price of rare earth metals
and indirectly increases America’s cost of production. This will shift SRAS leftward, resulting in (cost-
push) inflation. As a secondary effect, inflation will reduce America’s export price competitiveness,
and its BOT may worsen, ceteris paribus BOP will also worsen.
Effects on AD
Ext 1: Given that demand for rare earth metals are price inelastic, an increase in its price will lead to
less than proportionate decrease in the quantity demanded, ceteris paribus. This means that
America’s expenditure on rare earth metal will increase. This is reflected as an increase in import
expenditure. Hence M falls, and BOT worsens. Ceteris paribus, BOP worsens.
Ext 3 para 1: Outflow of FDI from America to China represents a decline in investments.
Given that M increases and I falls, AD will also fall, via the multiplier, real national income will fall,
leading to slower or even negative economic growth. The unplanned increase in stocks will lead to
decrease in production levels and hence demand for labour will fall and (cyclical) unemployment will
increase.
Meanwhile, there could be a rise in unemployment as domestic workers working in the affected
high-tech manufacturing industries lose their jobs given the shift to China. This type of
unemployment is considered to be structural in nature since there is a permanent fall in demand for
such labour and they may not have the necessary skills to be employed in other sectors.
Moreover, the outflow of FDI from America will worsen the financial account and hence BOP
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
48 :: ECONSABLAZE
In the long-run, due to the fall in investments, the LRAS will shift left, leading to a further contraction
in real national income and increase in unemployment.
Combined effect (use AD-AS diagram)
Fall in real national income (hampers economic growth) and rise in unemployment rates
GPL may rise or fall, depending on the extent of the shifts in AD and AS
Overall BOP may worsen due to worsening of current & financial accounts Anti-thesis: Consider extent of negative effects
AS may not fall by a large extent (Fig 3): America still has reserves and can actually buy from other nations, instead of solely relying on China even though China dominates the production. So the effect of cost-push inflation would not be too great. And hence export price competitiveness may not be affected.
AD may not fall by a large extent (Ext 3): Main engine of economic growth for America is durable-goods and services. So high-tech manufacturing will have little impact on the overall economic growth of America.
Overall judgement
In theory, the rare earth metals saga may inflict damage to the US economy as suggested in the
above analysis, but in reality, the impact would be minimal. Even if the threat is carried out, it will
largely be confined to the ‘manufacturing’ aspect of the high-tech sector in the US e.g. smartphones
– which ironically has been already largely been outsourced to low-cost off-shore centres in China.
Hence, China’s actions would likely result in adverse effects on the American economy but the
extent of these effects may not be very significant.
Mark scheme
L3
For an adequate and in-depth economic analysis using the AD-AS framework to discuss the effects
of China’s actions on America’s macroeconomic goals.
Max Low L3 if did not include effects on external goals of BOT or BOP
L2
For an average economic analysis using the AD-AS framework to discuss the effects of China’s
actions on America’s macroeconomic goals.
Max Mid L2 if did not make reference to case material Max Mid L2 if lop-sided analysis (no anti-thesis) Max Low L2 if lop-sided analysis (either AD or AS)
L1 For an answer that is descriptive or lacking in economic analysis or analysis have major conceptual
flaws.
E E2: Reasoned judgment supported by sound economic analysis E1: Unexplained judgment
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 49
Examiner’s comments
Objective of question: To use of AD/AS to analyse impact on the 4 basic macro-goals
Disappointingly, many scripts did not realise that this is a macroeconomics question. Many assumed
that since the first few parts of the question is on micro and so the last question should also be the
same. This shows that students don’t read the question carefully. The phrase ‘…affect the economy’
refers to the need to link to the macroeconomic goals. This has been clarified and reminded in
Tutorials 12 and the revision lecture.
Moreover, many students did not use Ext 3 and Fig 3 extensively, so a large part of the analysis is
incomplete since the written answers would not have an anti-thesis.
Some general observations:
(1) Need to learn to use the right set of tools ie AD/AS analysis and not Dd/Ss analysis (2) Focus on macro-goals should be broad enough to cover not just NI but to also include prices,
employment and trade balance. (3) Cost-push inflation and NOT demand-pull inflation is likely to be the immediate impact. (4) Do not over-blow the multiplier effect because the context is NOT pump-priming during a
recession. (5) Need to provide Anti-thesis (otherwise lop-sided analysis) as a counter-balance to the thesis.
Many of the impacts suggested in the thesis are basically “potential” or plausible rather than probable outcomes. Without an anti-thesis, the answer would appear too sweeping, simplistic and bias.
(6) Do not over-play the adverse long run effect on productive capacity caused by rare earth metals (7) Diagram issue… As a rule of thumb, it is best to use 2 diagrams to separate SR and LR analysis.
The LR impact, is likely to be a remote possibility.
(8) Best not to use such non-quantifiable words like small, large, great extent. Note, the command word “to what extent”… is not intended to elicit a quantifiable response from you. It is intended for you to provide a “balanced” analysis ie thesis and anti-thesis and come to a reasoned conclusion that balances different perspectives so that the overall analysis is neither too sweeping, simplistic nor biased.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
50 :: ECONSABLAZE
C1 Block Test 1 – Answer Scheme [Paper 2] 1 The inflation rate in Singapore was recorded at 5.4% in April 2012. Subsequently, the Singapore
government announced an additional spending of S$70 million aimed at helping companies
transform their businesses to increase productivity.
Discuss whether the above measure adopted by the Singapore government will
necessarily improve the standard of living in Singapore.
[25]
Examiner’s comments
Majority of students chose this question over Q2. And a slight majority was able to understand the
requirements of the question. That is, they were able to see that there were essentially 2 segments to
the question:
(a) Analyse the impact of G spending on national income.
(b) Link the above to impact on SOL and discuss in the context of Singapore
The best answers were those that did not adopt a one-size-fit all generic approach. Instead their
approach was carefully and appropriately contexutalised to show their ability in applying the theory
to the context.
Mediocre answers tended to only focus on effects of AD due to government spending or effects of AS
due to the increase in productivity. Moreover, most scripts for the SOL segment were in the main very
generic without application to the given context.
Contextualising Segment (a)
Idea: Government spending to raise productivity: objective is to enable the economy to grow without
inflationary pressure ie achieve non-inflationary growth which in theory is the basis for achieving a
better SOL. Good scripts make use of this key idea to exemplify the impact on SOL. Thus, with non-
inflationary growth a country residents benefit from better SOL in terms of higher real incomes or
purchasing power. Note that the $70 million government spending is not pump-priming but rather
boosting the economy’s productive capacity.
Digressing
Some focused on the point that GDP must be measured in S$ (PPP) which has no relevance to time comparison.
Quite a number gave too much focus to the multiplier. The context is not pump-priming in times of a recession. Multiplier effects, if any are incidental rather than intentional.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 51
Contextualising Segment (b)
Some salient points to take note of:
Composition of NI: expenditure on investment in productivity growth is a non-consumption expenditure and hence does not directly increase production of consumption goods e.g. expenditure on better equipment or training of workers
Productivity increases should raise income of lower income workers and hence narrow the income gap.
Quality of Life: It was quite disconcerting to come across scripts that said raising productivity is likely to increase working hours, stress levels and pollution levels. This sounds like regurgitation and goes against the grain of raising productivity in the first place. The aim of raising productivity is to find ways and means of working SMARTER as opposed to HARDER ie produce more with less inputs (e.g. less hours of work) and using equipment and machines that are pollution free ( e.g. green technology). This is the acid test of good contextualisation.
Evaluation: If the use of the $70m is the result of diverting government funds away from social spending on health-care and education SOL would be adversely impacted, at least in the short term.
Approach to the question
1. Explain how the measure will eventually lead to increase national income using the AD-AS
framework
2. Explain why increase in national income will improve SOL
3. Explain limitations of using national income as a measure of overall SOL
4. Overall judgment
Introduction
The Singapore government injected $70 million into the economy with the aim of raising
productivity levels, (as well as to prevent soaring inflation). The issue of this essay is to discuss
whether and to what extent the above measure will improve the standard of living in Singapore. But
first, let us explain the effects of the measure using the AD-AS framework.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
52 :: ECONSABLAZE
Body
Explain how the measure will raise national income
Effects on AD:
Government spending of $70 million will increase G.
Since G is a component of AD, AD will rise and shift to the right (from AD1 to AD2).
Assuming there is spare capacity in the Singapore economy, an autonomous increase in aggregate expenditure will trigger a multiplier effect.
An increase in AD will lead to an unplanned decrease in inventory. Producers will increase output in the next period, and via the multiplier, there will be a greater increase in national income
Explain briefly the multiplier process (note that this is not focus of the question)
Effects on AS:
Since the aim is to raise productivity, it will have effect on the AS
In the short-run, with a rise in productivity, the unit cost of production will fall hence the SRAS shifts to the right.
In the long-run, this increase in productivity will also increase the productive capacity of the economy, hence the LRAS will also shift to the right (from AS1 to AS2)
Combined effect:
Fig 1: Effect of government measure to raise productivity
With reference to Fig 1,
Assuming increase in AD is in tandem with increase in AS, Singapore would experience non-
inflationary economic growth in the long run, with real national income increasing from Y1 to Y2 and
price levels remain stable.
Now that we have explained how the measure will raise national income, let us then discuss if this
increase in national income will necessarily lead to improvement in standard of living in Singapore.
Yf1
Real National Income
General Price Level
AS1 AS2
Yf2
AD1 AD2
Y2 Y1
P1
P0
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 53
Standard of living (SOL) in Singapore is said to have risen when both the material and non-material
aspects of SOL have improved. It refers to the economic and social well-being of the people in a
country. It includes both the material and the non-material aspects of life. Material aspects include
the quantity and quality of the goods and services available for consumption while the non-material
aspects refers to the quality of the environment, leisure hours and level of stress for example.
Clarify how this essay will quantify national income – i.e. which economic indicator will be used to
measure national income. This essay will assume Real GDP growth as an indicator of SOL (mainly
for the material aspects)
Explain how increase in national income will lead to improvement in SOL
Commonly used indicator for material SOL for citizens – Real GDP
Define Real GDP
Higher Real GDP in an economy in recent years Citizens ought to be enjoying higher material living standards as more goods and services are made available for consumption
Given that the measure adopted by the government has led to a rise in national income in Singapore,
this implies that there is an increase in the physical quantity of goods and services available for
consumption, hence proving that material SOL has improved. This is based on the assumption that
the bulk of the physical quantity of goods and services are consumer goods of an equivalent or
improved quality. Since the nominal growth rate outweighs that of inflation rate, this may be an
indicator of a healthy economy with aggregate demand rising steadily.
The information provided indicates there is a rising SOL in terms of economic well-being of the
people in Singapore. But the information provided is still not the best measure of SOL as they fail to
give more details like the composition and distribution of the GDP to arrive at a conclusion that the
people are indeed better off and it also neglects the non-material aspects of SOL.
Explain how increase in national income may not necessarily lead to improvement in SOL
Real GDP per capita
In order to properly judge the material SOL of people in Singapore, we need data for real GDP per
capita. The real GDP per capita figures are obtained by dividing GDP by the population size. This is
because real GDP per capita figures account for changes in population size together with the size of
the economy. This means that even though real GDP has increased, the SOL in Singapore might be
lowered if the population growth is more than real GDP growth rate. However, it is may be unlikely
that population has grown by a large extent in a year for Singapore due to its low birth rate. So
Singapore’s SOL may not necessary improve or may at best improved marginally.
Evaluation: In addition, inflation rate of 5.4% may remain high, hence real purchasing power may be
eroded and the real national income may not increase very substantially. In this respect, the material
SOL would have been reduced in the short-run, if the effects of increased productivity are not felt by
Singapore.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
54 :: ECONSABLAZE
Distribution of NI
Even if real GDP per capita shows an increase, there may not be equitable distribution, we cannot
say then that the average Singaporean is better off when there is an increase in real GDP per capita.
If income disparity worsens as the economy experiences high growth rate, SOL does not improved
for all but only for certain groups of people.
In Singapore, income inequality has gotten especially serious in recent years even though we have
experienced strong economic growth. If the increase in national income (or economic growth) was
confined to a particular sector, for example financial services, then bankers and financiers may be
better off compared to the workers from other industries, which means that income inequality has
worsened. Given that Singapore’s twin pillars of growth are financial services and high-end
manufacturing sector, employees of these two industries may experience higher income than those
in other industries. We need Gini Coefficient data to learn more about the income inequality in
Singapore and to complement growth figures to reach more accurate conclusions regarding SOL of
the average Singaporean.
Evaluation: Indeed, Singapore Gini coefficient has been steadily rising over the past decade. This
suggests that the income gap has widened and not every Singaporean has benefitted from the
increase in national income. Moreover, if the $70 million were to aid the knowledge-based
industries or other SMEs, then not everyone will benefit from the measure and hence distribution of
national income would not be fair.
Composition of NI
Apart from its distribution, the composition of GDP is also important. GDP measures a country’s level
of production but may be a poor indicator of the consumption level by a country’s residents. This is
because a country’s output includes both consumption goods and investment goods but current
living standards depend only on consumption goods. Hence, for judging changes in consumer
welfare, it is important to consider the composition of GDP as well as its size. If the increase in
national income is due to expenditure on defence or capital goods, then we cannot say that
consumers are better off especially if these goods are produced at the expense of consumer goods,
then the SOL may not have improved. For example, if the Singaporean government built more office
buildings and thus resulting in a higher GDP figure, there is actually no change in SOL for
Singaporeans.
Evaluation: However, in the context of Singapore, it is unlikely that expenditure on defence and
investment goods is reduced in order to spend more on consumption goods since this will affect the
SOL of the population currently and in future. But having a large expenditure on defence and
investment goods does not necessarily mean that SOL has deteriorated because we need to consider
how large consumer goods are represented in GDP. If the proportion of consumer goods remains
high or even higher, then current SOL would have improved. Moreover, if the $70 million is for the
capital goods industry then current SOL may not have necessarily improved.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 55
Non-material aspects
The measurement of SOL should include the non-material aspect of life as well. But the information
given did not include that. GDP statistics includes only monetary transactions. Thus, if a non-
monetary activity becomes a monetary transaction, this will increase the NI figures without a
corresponding increase in welfare. In addition, if the growth was achieved through longer hours
worked and lesser leisure time, this does not indicate a higher SOL in Singapore.
Evaluation: However, in view of higher productivity, workers may actually work less hours and yet
produce the same amount of output. This would have raise the non-material SOL.
Conclusion
It is difficult to conclude that there is a rising SOL based on what the Singapore government has
adopted. The prediction of the effects can at best indicate a better SOL in material aspect,
alternative indicators such as Net Economic Welfare which adds to GNP certain items such as leisure
and housewives’ services and subtracts from GNP unmet costs of pollution and other disamenities of
modern urbanization and Human Development Index which includes the intangibles such as life
expectancy at age one, infant mortality rate and literacy rate have to be used to further assess the
standards of living of Singapore.
OR
In the context of the question, whilst it is not certain whether government spending on improving
productivity can immediately raise current SOL, there is however, a high probability that in the long
run, raising productivity, should contribute to a better future SOL, not only materially if it leads to
sustained non-inflationary economic growth, but especially if it gives the residents more time and
less stress to enjoy a better quality of life.
Level
Descriptors
Level 3
High L3
Low L3
Answer shows excellent understanding of the requirements of the question.
Able to use AD-AS analysis very well to explain the effects of the measure adopted by the Singapore government. [Alternatively, used the AE-Y plus PPC to show both SR and LR effects respectively]
For the SOL part, answer was able to show balance in terms of discussing material and non-material aspects.
Excellent rigour in economic analysis and development.
Excellent use of diagrams that is adequately explained.
Excellent attempts at contextualisation with a variety of relevant examples.
Answer good knowledge of AD-AS analysis; or AE-Y plus PPC.
Answer is balanced in consideration of material and non-material aspects of SOL.
Good rigour in economic analysis and development.
Good use of diagrams that is adequately explained (which includes diagrams with simultaneous shifts).
Some attempts at contextualisation with some relevant examples.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
56 :: ECONSABLAZE
Level 2
High L2
Low L2
Answer shows adequate knowledge of AD-AS analysis; or AE-Y plus PPC
Answer is balanced in consideration of material and non-material aspects of SOL.
Some rigour in economic analysis and development.
Relevant diagrams drawn but not well explained or clear explanation in absence of diagrammatical analysis.
Minimal or no contextualisation.
Max of High L2 (capped at 14m) if answer did not consider long-run effects of
the measure by Singapore government.
Answer shows some knowledge of AD-AS analysis; or AE-Y plus PPC
Answer lacks balance in consideration: only material or non-material aspects of SOL.
Lacks sound economic analysis and development
Minimal or no contextualisation.
Max of Low L2 (capped at 10m) if answer is lop-sided – only discussed SR effects
of the measure and material aspects of SOL
Level 1
High L1
Low L1
Answer shows some basic knowledge of AD-AS analysis; or AE-Y or PPC.
Errors and inconsistencies occur in the explanation, showing lack of understanding of the economic concepts.
Minimal or no contextualisation.
Answer is mostly irrelevant.
Only few valid points which do not clearly address the question.
E1 Mainly unexplained judgment.
E2 Judgment based on analysis.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 57
2 (a) Explain the factors that will affect the extent of the contraction of an economy’s
national income when net exports decline.
[12]
(b) Discuss whether a decline in national income necessarily meant that the standard
of living for the average person in an economy has also declined.
[13]
Examiner’s comments
This is the less popular question and those who did this mainly fared worse than those who
attempted Q1.
Students should realize that despite being a part (a) – part (b) type of essay question, they must be
confident of the question requirements before attempting it. Not all 25m type of essay (like Q1) are
difficult.
Part (a)
Scope / Focus
Answers in the main were lop-sided and too narrow in scope. There was either too much focus on the
multiplier process, or too much focus on the changes in other components of AE e.g. government
spending, investment, etc. Many simply ignored the state of economy, whether the economy is
at/near full employment versus one that has a lot of spare capacity.
Part (b)
The skill of contextualising
Most answers to part (b) were awarded low L2 marks due to the lack of application to the context. A
lot of scripts can certainly gain better marks with better skills of contextualizing. For example: The
answer can could take the stand that sometimes an economic slowdown can make life better for
everyone ie gives a breather especially in terms of quality of life (intangibles). This is the reason why
sometimes Singaporeans find our pace of life too fast/stressful because of too much focus on
economic growth at the expense of quality of life.
Conceptual Issues:
Some seem to think that HDI is a BETTER indicator. If this is true, then it begs the question: Why use
real GDP per capita? Thus, it is best to say HDI is a supplementary indicator.
It is a fallacy to say that increased unemployment necessarily lower SOL. The basis for measuring SOL
is not unemployment but Real GDP per capita. It is possible for both unemployment and Real GDPper
capita to rise e.g. using more machines and less labour.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
58 :: ECONSABLAZE
Part (a)
Introduction
[Key Word(s) – Issue(s) – Approach (KIA) framework]
National income is the total value of final goods and services newly produced in a country within a
given period of time, usually a year. Net export is the difference between value of exports and the
value of imports of goods and services. A contraction of net exports will bring about a multiple fall in
national income due to the multiplier effect. This essay shall examine the factors that affect the size
of the multiplier which will then determine the extent of the fall in national income when net
exports declines.
Body
Generally, the extent of the contraction of an economy is dependent on three main factors – the size
of the multiplier, the size of the original change in aggregate expenditure and the overall state of the
economy.
FACTOR 1 – SIZE OF THE MULTIPLIER
State: A contraction in net exports works through the multiplier process and reduce national income.
Elaborate & Exemplify
o AE is total spending in the economy and comprises of consumer expenditure (C), investment expenditure (I), government expenditure (G) and net exports (X-M)
o Initial equilibrium national income is attained when national output is equal to aggregate expenditure
o Now with a reduction in net exports, a fall in AE occurs.
Decrease the level of AE leads to an unplanned increase in inventory. When AE < output (Y1<Ye), planned expenditure is smaller than planned output unplanned inventory
-AE
AE
Y1 Ye National Income
AE0
AE1
AE=Y
-NI = -AE*k
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 59
accumulation and hence a ↑ in stocks producers will ↓ output in the next period, and via the reverse multiplier greater fall in NI than the original fall in both C.
The reverse multiplier effect is generated through k, the multiplier: -∆NI = -∆ AE * k. The amount of the net exports that has fallen will have an impact on the extent of the
reduction in national income as this fall is the ∆ AE.
Explanation of the reverse multiplier process:
With autonomous decreases in net exports, it will reduce income for households employed by firms
in the export industries.
The household will tend to reduce a proportion of the income on consumption, depending on their
marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This further reduces income for households employed in the
consumer goods industry who will further reduce their spending on consumption (induced
consumption).
This cycle of reduction in spending will continue until the fall in income becomes negligible. The
eventual fall in national income is several times the initial decrease in AE. The reverse multiplier, k,
represents the number of times the national income decreases with respect to the initial change in
AE.
Explain the components of the k value
The size of the multiplier depends on the extent of leakages from the circular flow of income. The multiplier process comes to a halt because not all income received during one period (i.e. rounds) is passed on in the next period, as there are leakages in the form of savings, taxes and imports. In a four sector economy, the multiplier, k, is given by k = 1/ (MPS + MPT + MPM) = 1/MPW
MPW measures the change in withdrawal from the circular flow as national income changes. It is the sum of MPS, MPT and MPM.
MPS measures the change in saving as income changes, MPT measures the changes in tax as income changes while MPM indicates the changes in import as income changes.
The higher the MPW, the smaller the proportion of income that is re-spent at each round.
Explain the determinants of MPS (any well-elaborated 1 point)
MPS is largely affected by
the attitude towards thrift in the society. This may vary country to country. In general, Asians tend to have a more prudent attitude, whereby it is a common practice to save for the next generation.
social security system in the country. If government encourages savings, MPS will be higher. In Singapore, there is a national saving scheme whereby all working individuals have to make compulsory monthly contributions to the Central Provident Fund (CPF). CPF savings ensures that individuals have sufficient savings for retirement as well as medical expenses. This compulsory aspect of savings, together with the prudent attitude, results in Singapore being one of the countries with the highest saving rates in the world.
The higher MPS represents a larger leakage from the circular flow at each stage and hence will
result in a smaller change in income given a change in AE
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
60 :: ECONSABLAZE
Explain the determinants of MPT (any well-elaborated 1 point)
MPT is largely affected by
taxation policy of the country. A steeply progressive taxation system implies that MPT is larger at higher income level.
The extent of government benefits and transfer payments. A welfare state, e.g. the UK, usually have a higher level of MPT as the large amount of tax revenue has to be collected to finance the welfare benefits.
Given the higher leakages through taxation, the value of k will be smaller.
Explain the determinants of MPM (any well-elaborated 1 point)
MPM is largely affected by
Trade policies of the country – open-trade vs protectionism. A country which has high tariffs or quota on foreign goods will result in a lower MPM.
Openness of the economy. A country with high dependency on imports such as Singapore will have a high MPM. The lack of natural resources results in the dependency on imported raw materials for productions.
The high level of MPM will result in a small k value.
FACTOR 2 – SIZE OF THE ORIGINAL CHANGE IN AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE
The reverse multiplier effect is generated through k, the multiplier: -∆NI = -∆ AE * k. Hence, the amount of the net exports that has fallen will have an impact on the extent of the
reduction in national income as this fall is the ∆AE. Component of AE will also affect the overall ∆AE. But they have to be simultaneous change and
not resultant change due to the decline in net exports. FACTOR 3 – STATE OF THE ECONOMY
Another factor that will affect the decline in national income after a fall in net exports is the state of
economy. If the economy is operating at the inflationary gap, any reduction in net exports would
only reduce nominal national income and not real income.
Conclusion
To conclude, the extent of the fall in national income from a decrease in net exports depends largely
on the size of the multiplier, which depends on extent of the propensity of withdrawal through
savings, taxes and imports; the amount of net exports that has fallen; and the general state of the
economy.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 61
Knowledge, Understanding, Application and Analysis
L3
For an answer that has rigour in analysis, explaining in details the multiplier size and clearly
explains what happens when economy is at or near full capacity.
High L3 – good explanation of all THREE factors
Low L3 – including good explanation of only one other factor
L2
For an answer that gives a limited account of AE-Y model or uses the AD-AS analysis to
explain the multiplier. There is a general lack of rigour in economic analysis.
Low L2 for well-explained multiplier process and determinants of MPS, MPT and MPM
L1
For an answer that shows some superficial knowledge of net exports as an autonomous
expenditure or the consideration of the multiplier process, OR it is largely inaccurate with
conceptual errors.
Max High L1 for only multiplier process (without considering factors that could affect the size of the multiplier)
Introduction
[Key Word(s) – Issue(s) – Approach (KIA) framework]
Standard of living (SOL) in Singapore is said to have declined when both the material and non-material aspects of SOL have been worsened. The issue at hand is whether and to what extent a decline in national income necessarily meant that SOL for the average Singaporean has also fell. This essay shall examine some other factors that could affect SOL before coming to a conclusion.
Body
Clarify how this essay will quantify national income – i.e. which economic indicator will be used to
measure national income. This essay will assume Real GDP per capita growth as an indicator of
SOL (mainly for the material aspects)
Definition of Standard Of Living (SOL)
Involves the economic & social well-being of the people in a country. It includes both the material & non-material aspects of life. Material aspects - includes the quantity & quality of the goods & services available for
consumption Non-material aspects - quality of the environment, leisure hours & level of stress etc.
(b) Discuss whether a decline in national income necessarily meant that the standard
of living for the average person in an economy has also declined.
[13]
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
62 :: ECONSABLAZE
THESIS – A decline in national income means that SOL has worsened
Commonly used indicator for material SOL for citizens – Real GDP per capita
Define Real GDP per capita
Real GDP is used because it measures the value of output at constant prices and any decrease must mean a fall in output and hence living standards. On the other hand, a fall in nominal GDP could be due mainly to decreases in prices with negligible fall in output and hence negligible worsening in living standards.
Changes in population need to be considered. If population decreases faster than the decrease in national income, then the real GDP per capita might have improved.
Lower Real GDP growth rates in an economy in recent years Citizens ought to be suffering from a lower material living standards as less goods and services are made available for consumption.
To have meaningful inter-temporal comparisons of SOL – One can use growth rates over time (5 years at least)
Exemplification / Evaluation / Judgment: Generally, in the context of a severe recessions, it means
real output is contracting and together with the possibility of a larger population growth due to a
positive birth rate and increase of permanent residents (negative growth rate + higher population
growth rate) NI per capita falls significantly the SOL indeed has fallen especially if there is
massive unemployment.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 63
ANTI-THESIS 1 – A decline in national income does not necessarily mean that citizens are better
off… (Materially)
However, a fall in NI does not conclusively mean that the quantitative aspect of SOL is lower
Need to discuss difficulties in inter-temporal comparison and propose refinements to the NI statistics:
Changes in Distribution of NI A country’s real GDP per capita may be lower over time, but its living standards may still be improving for certain sectors / segments of the population due to differences in income distribution.
If real GDP per capita but there is more equal distribution of income, SOL of the majority may not decline. For instance, a reduction in the income of the top 5% income earners > that of middle and low income earners Exemplification: E.g. during the recent financial recession, both the rich and poor are affected. Many
wealthy people suffered from paper loss in shares and stocks; white collar workers especially in the
financial sector are retrenched. Hence workers in these sectors will be earning less than other
workers in other non-affected industries such as teaching, helthcare or public transport services.
Evaluation/Judgment: However, during a massive recession, it is likely that the poor are still the ones hit worst given that they do not have much savings and may not possess the skills to find another job. And thus they will be unable to maintain a certain SOL as before. Hence, the Real GNP per capita might need to be augmented by the Gini coefficient as a basis for a more meaningful inter-temporal comparison of living standards.
Changes in Composition of NI National income measures a country’s level of income but may be a poor indicator of consumption
level by a country’s residents. This is because a country’s output includes both consumption
expenditure and investment spending but current SOL depends only on consumption spending.
Hence for judging changes in SOL, it is important to consider the composition of GDP and not just
the fall or increase in its size.
Exemplification / Evaluation / Judgment: For example, for small and open economies like Singapore,
which is an export-driven economy in which exports 2-3 times of our GDP. The fall in NI is highly
due to a in the exports such as petrol chemicals. This will not lead to a fall in the current living standards. However, firms are indeed badly hit in this global recession and many have resorted to retrenching staff and thus SOL will be adversely affected.
General difficulties in measuring NI (especially for developing countries)
In practice, the collection and processing of national income statistics is a complex operation. The
data is compiled from millions of different returns to the government. Inevitably, mistakes are made
– returns are inaccurate or simply not completed. For instance, income tax returns may be
understated and may also fail to include the lower income groups who do not pay income tax. In
developing countries where proper accounting systems are not in place, officials frequently lack the
expertise in data collection and where there are many inaccessible areas, the difficulties involved in
data collection are compounded.
Other considerations:
Size of monetized sector
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
64 :: ECONSABLAZE
ANTI-THESIS 2 – A decline in national income does not inevitably mean that citizens are worse off
due to non-material aspects of SOL
Considering the material aspects of living standards are insufficient, we need to examine the non-
material aspects of living standard, such as Externalities and Disamenities.
Externalities
National income figures take no account of externalities produced by the economy. Many
production processes create harmful by-products, which harm the environment. Such external costs
are difficult to measure and are also not captured in the national income figures, which only reflect
private costs. For example, in Indonesia, if a forest is cut down, the value of the timber is counted in
national income but no account is taken of the loss of the benefits derived from the forests (e.g.
absorption of carbon dioxide). Thus, if decreases in output are accompanied by less in pollution then
the resultant fall in national income would actually improve the non-material aspects of the
economy.
Disamenities
When real GDP per capita falls and resulted in retrenchment, there may be more tension in the family. Crime rates may rise. Those who are still employed will be more stressful as they might have to double up their jobs and live in fear of being fired. However, if female workers who are dismissed and end up rendering more services to the families, it may even mean a happier family; also, people have more time for leisure which could be used to rebuild family bonds, pursue one’s own interests / hobbies or upgrade one’s skills. Evaluation/Judgment: However, this kind of so called more leisure time and family bonding is not ‘voluntary’ but due to unemployment and thus the stress level can be high.
Conclusion
It is difficult to conclude that there is a falling standard of living based on a large drop in national income statistics or real GDP per capita figures. However, in terms of material aspects of living standards, the average resident of a country might be worse off but similar conclusion is difficult to reach when we consider the non-material aspects of living standard.
Alternative indicators such as Net Economic Welfare (NEW) which adds to GNP certain items such as leisure & housewives’ services and subtracts from GNP unmet costs of pollution & other disamenities of modern urbanization and the Human Development Index (HDI) which includes the intangibles such as life expectancy at age one, infant mortality rate and literacy rate have to be used to further assess the standards of living of an economy.
Other possible evaluation points: A decline in national income due to a fall in net exports may have very adverse effects for small and open economies such as Singapore who are very trade-dependent (4 times GDP). For such economies, the decline in net exports is due to the fact that the whole world has plunged into a recession and they are not spared since it is expected the economy will shrink badly and unemployment rate is climbing. Hence, one can conclude that the standard of living for the average citizen of such economies would have indeed declined.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 65
Knowledge, Understanding, Application and Analysis
L3
Able to address all requirements of question with balance coverage of factors affecting
SOL.
Mid L3 if answers did not link to context of decline in net exports. For High L3, a balanced answer should discuss at least 3 key limitations with required
refinements to NI statistics (material SOL) and 1 aspect for measurement of Non-material SOL with examples
L2
Analysis lacking in depth: fail to provide economic analysis linking material and non-
material aspects of SOL.
Low L2 for largely accurate but “generic” theoretical answers with no examples
L1 Shows conceptually weak description of factors affecting SOL. Answer is descriptive with conceptual errors
Evaluation
E2 Insightful evaluative comments
E1 Limited evaluation without justification
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
66 :: ECONSABLAZE
C2 Block Test 2 – Good Sample Scripts Question 1
d) Discuss whether government intervention in the luxury goods market is justified. [8] Answer by Koh Jia Ren 11S70
Governments only intervene in a market when there is market failure, in this case it is widening income gap and imperfect information. China has experienced an increasing income distribution gap, Gini coefficient rising from 0.457 in 2004 to 0.480 in 2009, which is very high. The Chinese government has intervened in the luxury market by imposing hefty consumption taxes on luxury goods. Thus, this reduces the physical standard of living difference between the rich and the poor because the rich consumes less luxury goods. However, I find that this is a poor way of reducing income inequality; taxing luxury goods does not increase the welfare of the poor in China at all. It’s only benefit is redistribution of income as the government taxes can be used for social programmes for the poor. The redistribution of income would be effective if China could effectively enclose the market so the luxury Chinese consumers have no alternatives. But extract 2 says Chinese shoppers simply go to Hong Kong and Europe to avoid the hefty tariffs. Thus, while demand for luxury goods is inelastic, demand for luxury goods in China might be elastic due to the availability of substitute retailers, including luxury brands’ increased online presence. Thus decrease in quantity is proportionally greater than increase in price after tax, luxury brands total revenue is reduced, reducing their after tax profits and shifting the Marginal Efficiency of Investment left, which might decrease investment in China. Thus, the efforts at redistribution of wealth brings more harm than good to China, and it should not intervene in the luxury market The UK through the QSA, intervened in the luxury market by banning a series of advertisements by Louis Vuitton (LV) which misled the public through advertising. This, perceived private benefit was actually higher than actual PMB, because the expensive leather bags were not fully handmade, which decreases their value. Thus, total private cost, area XYQEQP > total private benefit area YZQPQE, resulting in welfare consumption loss of area XYZ. Thus, the UK government was right to intervene to correct the market failure, bringing PMBperceived to equal PMBactual, to nullify the welfare loss.
Marker’s Comments: How does this happen?
QE QP
Qty of luxury goods
Cost/Benefit
PMC = SMC
PMBperceived
PMBactual
X
Y
Z
Welfare loss
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 67
e) Discuss how firms in luxury goods retail market might compete with each other. [10] Answer by Chan Tuck Ging 11S6G
Luxury good firms operate in an oligopoly and not monopoly as there is increased competition [Extract 4 Para 2]. They can compete with price and non-price competition. There exist online discount luxury good sellers that carry time-limited offers for off-season luxury items at low prices. This means that the discount luxury good firms are practicing predatory pricing in an attempt to drive out rivals. Lower-end luxury firms have responded by venturing into discount outlets i.e. lowering their prices as well. This results in price wars. However, it is unlikely that oligopoly firms will sustain price wars as their overall revenue will be slashed severely unless one firm has significantly lower production costs than the rest. Thus it is unlikely for price wars to be their main mode of competition. This is possible when Hermes expanded its marketing with 32 new stores worldwide. They reap internal economies of scale when they expand to larger markets, resulting in lower unit costs. The other form of competition is non-price. Luxury firms build brand loyalty so as to make their product more price-inelastic. This is product promotion where luxury firms never lower their prices in discounts and sales, thus holding its band name’s value. Their marketing is also consistent, as well as production strategies. Majority of products are still made in home country [France] while shoes in Italy. Right celebrities are also contracted to endorse their brand, and store locations show their prestige. Hence, luxury firms can be said to engage in non-price competition by fostering brand loyalty. In conclusion, high-end luxury firms do not engage in price competition as it would nullify its brand name it has been building on since long time ago. Hence, they compete by making their product more and more unique. However, low-end luxury firms may resort to price wars as they reap economies of scale by expanding internationally, thus reducing cost of production.
Marker’s Comments: Evaluation
Question 2
b) (ii) In light of the data presented, comment on the likely impact of this change in value of the Euro described in a(i) on Greece’s Balance of Payments. [5] Answer by Lim Xin Tong 11S7B
The balance of payments in a summary statement of the monetary value of all economic transactions between the residents of a country and the rest of the world. It consists of the current account, the capital account and the financial account. Due to the depreciation in the Euro, Greece’s exports would be cheaper in terms of foreign currency and imports would be more expensive in terms of the Euro. Assuming the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, where the sum of the price elasticities of demand for exports and imports is more than one, the balance of trade will improve. This is evident by the current account figures in Table 3 that show an improving deficit from 2008 to 2011 as balance of trade improves.
Marker’s Comments:
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
68 :: ECONSABLAZE
The depreciation of the Euro is also “hurting investors’ confidence”, as the value of their profits is likely to decrease given the continually depreciating Euro. The poor business confidence is resulting in a fall in foreign direct investment as seen from Table 3, which decreased from 1.3% of GDP to 0.1% of GDP. Overall, it is likely that the balance of payments will improve due to the improving balance of trade; especially since import expenditure will drastically decrease as well due to the loss in purchasing power. Nonetheless, it will not improve from a deficit to a surplus, as the deficit in trade balance is significantly large, coupled with the fall in investment.
c) (ii) Discuss whether the data provided will lead one to conclude that the current and future standard of living for Germany is higher than Greece. [8] Answer by Park Ji Yeon 11S7H
The data seems to suggest that Germans enjoy higher current standard of living (SOL) as compared to the Greeks due to 2 main reasons. Firstly, they enjoy lower unemployment rate. This means that more people have a steady source of income with which they can buy goods, such as basic necessities and consumption goods. Hence, their material SOL is higher than Greeks whose larger proportion do not have steady source of income. Furthermore, financial consumption expenditure of households in Germany is much higher than those of Greeks, and is almost tenfold. This suggests they enjoy purchasing more goods which can raise their material standard of living. However, it is still quite inconclusive as the data does not show consumption expenditure per capita, and hence it is difficult to accurately judge the standard of living of a person. Furthermore, as of years 2001-2011, Greeks enjoyed similarly long life expectancies and low infant mortality rates as those of Germans, and it can be inferred that they enjoy similar non-material standard of living. Nevertheless, additional information such as stress levels and pollution index would be needed to accurately conclude their current SOL, together with other indices such as Gross Domestic Happiness etc. The data also seems to suggest that the Germans will enjoy higher standard of living in the future due to higher gross fixed capital formation. As there is inflow of capitals in the forms of investment, production possibility curve will be shifted further outwards, more than the Greeks. Hence, in the future, this can be translated to higher consumption goods produced and consumed by the Germans and thus higher material SOL. However, whether they will truly enjoy the increase in SOL would depend on the economy’s decision to choose between production of capital or consumption goods. If it chooses to divert its resources to producing more capital goods without producing more consumption goods, the material SOL might not increase. In fact, if the Greeks decide to divert their resources in the future more towards production of consumption goods, they might actually enjoy from higher material SOL. Furthermore, the current economic growth in Germany may be due to increased production of goods that might result in pollution. This, in turn, might lead to lower non-material SOL in the future. Hence, data is not sufficient to firmly
Marker’s Comments: Link to health standards Why not current?
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conclude that Germany will enjoy higher current and future SOL, but it is likely to be so.
d) Discuss how the austerity measures will help alleviate the recession EU? [10] Answer by Lim Xin Tong 11S7B
The austerity measures include "cutting government spending by pay freeze for most public sector workers", "government ministries to reduce expenses and cutting minister's salaries". Assuming that those workers were over-paid previously, which is stated in Extract 5 as the "government spent massively" on "extremely generous pay and pension benefits", it is likely that these pay cuts will allow the unit cost of production to decrease as the cost of hiring workers decrease without harming productivity. This will cause SRAS to increase. The overarching aim of the austerity measures is to "demonstrate to investors it can manage its deficits to bring back confidence to the region", and show "political will to increase productivity".
With an increase in investment, AD₁ shifts to AD₂. Through the multiplier effect, the increase in national income is several times that of the original increase in investment. Furthermore, investment will allow LRAS to shift outwards, resulting in an increased national income level of Y₂. This multiplier effect is achieved by the increase in income of workers in the capital goods industry, who then spend a proportion of the increased income on consumption, thus increasing the income of those employed in the consumer goods industry. This cycle of spending and re-spending will repeat itself until total withdrawal equals to the injection. National income increases to full employment output and unemployment decreases, purchasing power increase and effects of the recession are alleviated. Nonetheless, such a scenario is only possible if investor's confidence is actually regained. The pay freezes have to be effective by not discouraging productivity, and the budget deficits need to be improved significantly or the country would have to pay fines levied by the European Commission, shown in Ext 6. In reality, this is extremely difficult as the government will face much opposition when "tearing up labour laws that make hiring and firing difficult". The government must keep the power of workers' union in check and not succumb to the demand for higher wages as this will harm productivity. Furthermore, even if the investments were to increase the AD is unlikely
Marker’s Comments: Explain why.
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70 :: ECONSABLAZE
to shift to a large extent and may even decrease due to the nature of the austerity measures that oppress consumption. For example, the increase in taxes will reduce the disposable income of consumers and reduce their ability to consumer. Government spending has also decreased and the C + G components of AD are adversely affected. Pay cuts and higher taxes may also reduce incentive to work, lowering productivity. In Paul Krugman's words in Ext 6, such measures "depress the economy further" and make it even harder to finance debts due to the reduction of tax receipts. As such, the austerity measures may in fact make it even harder to recover from the recession and reduce the level of national income. In conclusion. The government needs to ensure that its measures effectively boost confidence of investors without suppressing too much consumption. This can be done by not reducing spending on areas that will allow improvement in necessary infrastructure and constantly improving productivity regardless of the opposition from the ground. This can only be done through strong political will and calculated, careful spending so that national income will increase to alleviate effects of a recession.
More elaboration required Good attempt!
e) [H1 Paper] Discuss whether the austerity measures mentioned in Extract 5 will help alleviate the recession in EU. [8] Answer by Cai Anni 11S7B
Austerity measures are designed to cut government spending to reduce budget deficit so as to clear the EU countries’ debt in the long run. In principle, clearing the debt will make the financial situation more stable and attract back investors repelled by the unpredictability of eurozome economy. If this succeeds, FDI levels may increase, thus improving the financial account. Greece’s FDI has declined steadily and it is hoped that balancing its finances will attract investors and reverse the trend. Investment will also spur capital formation and potential growth. Therefore, FDI increase AD in short run and increases LRAS as well. However, as Krugman pointed out, austerity measures can actually depress the economy further. As government spending is a component of AD, slashing government budget will lead to a decrease in AD. As seen in Fig. 4, a fall in govt spending will shift AD towards the left,
Marker’s Comments: Good. Decrease in AD. Be
General
Price
Level
Real National
Income
AS
AD0
AD1
Y1 Y0 YF
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leading to a decrease in real national income. Cyclical unemployment will also increase as Y0 drops to Y1, furthering the gap from YF. In fact, growth in EU is a mere 0.2% due to the harsh austerity measures (Ex 5). The austerity measures, therefore, are actually dampening growth and causing more unemployment. Greece’s unemployment rate has already reached 17.1% and even Germany’s is 8.1%. Prolonged unemployment can cause workers to lose their skills decreasing their productive capacity in future. Instead of increasing taxes, which will reduce disposable income and further decrease consumption – which is steadily decreasing in both Greece and Germany – the government should instead consider lowering taxes to encourage domestic spending so as to increase AD and hence increase national income. AS Extract 5 mentions, for EU to cure the recession it must increase productivity. This can be done via skill upgrading schemes to retrain their structurally unemployed workers so as to improve potential growth by shifting the LRAS curve. They can also focus on research and development to find new comparative advantages to benefit from globalization. Greece has a persistent current account deficit which can be improved by upgrading its technology and producing more value-add goods thus improving export revenue. In conclusion, austerity is probably rather limited in effectiveness. While it can stabilize debt levels, more must be done to restructure economy and improve productivity or find new CA before Europe can benefit from increased investment and trade. Moreover, contractionary fiscal policy in a time of recession is unsuitable as it can prolong the recession. While the govt can probably reduce its spending on pay and pension (Ex 4), it can instead divert those to public construction projects to provide more jobs and income for its citizens. This, coupled with aggressive retraining schemes, will keep the economy afloat long enough for foreign investments to flow in on account of better labour productivity and is a preferable alternate to short term austerity measures.
more precise. Or fall in LRAS Good understanding of austerity package.
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C2 Block Test 2 – Model Answers Question 1 a) i) Compare the trend of total retail sales and e-commerce sales from 2002-2010. [2]
i) Both total retail sales and e-commerce sales increased over the period. However, e-commerce sales increased at a higher rate than total retail sales. OR However, while total retail sales fell in 2008 and 2009, e-commerce sales still increased
but at a lower rate compared to previous years.
Note:
1. Do not award marks for answer that compares “growth” instead of “sales”. 2. Do not award marks if candidate did not use comparative word e.g. On the other hand, however,
etc
Markers Comments:
1. Use of signpost words like “both” and “however” are missing in some scripts. 2. Similarity & difference are not apparent in some scripts where students describe the trend for
both variables without contrasting them clearly. 3. Lack of interpretation of data in some scripts – Students just describe the % change 4. Students answered in terms of “growth in sales” instead of the “sales” 5. Some students use year to year analysis instead of general and specific trend
ii) Explain one reason for the above difference. [2]
Evidence: Websites are doing ever more and cleverer things to serve and entertain their customers,
and are delivering price and product information quickly and securely (Ext 1).
Explanation: The increased satisfaction of the online shopping experience which caters to the taste
and preference of consumers led to increased demand for goods and services sold online compared
to traditional brick-and-mortar channels.
OR
Evidence: During recession in 2008-2009 when GDP growth was negative (Table 1), shopping and
flaunting newly bought goods could be considered insensitive hence consumers who still wished to
shop preferred to shop privately online rather than in brick-and-mortar shops.
Explanation: e-commerce is a close substitute for retail. Consumers who shun retail shops switch to
shopping in online shops instead, increasing the demand for e-commerce and falling demand for
retail.
Note: Pure lifting [1] + Link to analysis [1]
Markers Comments
1. Limited credit can be given for answer w/o use of economic concepts 2. Too much lifting from case study, multiple “quotes” without using analysis 3. Did not know the difference between absolute and relative change. Some students wrote there
is “decrease in the price of good sold via ecommerce” instead of understanding that ecommerce goods are just generally relatively cheaper than retail
4. Incorrect to just say that retail & e-commerce are substitutes of each other – this would imply that they will always have a negative relationship instead of just in 2008/9.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 73
b) Explain how the increasing presence of retailers online has benefited consumers. [2] The increased retailers online presented increased competition. The internet lowers transaction
costs (Ext 1) hence allowing goods and services sold online to be sold at lower prices. Consumers
would enjoy increased consumer surplus with lowered prices.
OR
The greater competition posed by the increasing presence of retailers online will allow consumers to
purchase a greater variety of goods and services which benefits consumers by increasing their
consumers’ welfare.
Note:
1 well-elaborated reason gets full 2 marks
Variety consumer surplus = 0 (misconception)
Variety consumer welfare = 2
Transaction cost consumer surplus = 1 (missing link of price)
Transaction cost price = 1 (need to make further link to consumer surplus)
Transaction cost Price consumer surplus = 2
Increase in competition due to increase in no. of sellers (inclusion of online retailers) lower price
consumer surplus
Markers Comments:
1. Concept error from scripts: Increasing no. of retailers online will allow them to enjoy internal EOS. Note that internal EOS is due to the firm’s own expansion.
2. Misconception: Increasing variety leads to higher consumer surplus 3. Many lifted from the source and did not explain using consumer surplus/welfare. 4. Too much lifting from case study, multiple “quotes” without using analysis
c) With reference to Extract 2, i) Distinguish the types of costs faced by a firm in the luxury goods industry. [2]
ii) With the aid of a diagram, explain how the profits of luxury goods makers are likely to
change with “rising costs”. [4]
i) A firm in the luxury good market faces fixed costs, which are cost of production that do not vary with the level of output, such as that spent on advertising and celebrity endorsement.
On the other hand, it faces variable costs which are cost of production that vary
positively with level of output. This includes wages paid to labor and raw material costs,
which increase when more labor and materials are required to produce more output.
Note: definition [1] + show understanding of concept [1]
Markers Comments:
1. Misconception: wages and raw materials costs are fixed costs 2. Misconception: fixed cost are cost which are unavoidable and variable cost are cost which
are avoidable. This is clearly incorrect. 3. Failure to clearly contrast fixed and variable cost using connecting words. Instead candidates
often simply listed the definitions. 4. Many students saw advertising cost and raw material cost as types of costs. Note you have
to know that the examiner is fishing for concept from you. Advertising and raw material cost are examples of fixed and variable cost.
5. There are a handful of students who came up with marketing cost/technical cost/etc….
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ii) Explain with revenue-cost diagram of price-setter, showing limited upward shift of MC, AC and fall in supernormal profits] [2]
- There have been increase variable costs but these represent only a small part of the cost base, and wages have not increased much hence the increase in cost is relatively small (Extract 3) [1] Note: Not sufficient to just mention that costs had risen as it is obviously given in the question
- Overall, luxury good maker still makes supernormal profits, enjoying “bumper years” but less supernormal profits than before [1] Note: Normal profits acceptable
- Note: Kinked demand curve can be accepted but MC must cut the vertical portion of the MR curve
Markers Comments:
1. Mistake to use DD-SS diagram for the market to show change in profits. It only shows the total expenditure for the entire market, not profits from the firm perspective.
2. Diagram errors: - MC did not cut minimum AC - AC1 and AC2 intersect - Cost increasing show as cost curves shifting towards the right - Did not include average cost curves, hence students will not be able to determine the profit level
d) Discuss whether government intervention in the luxury goods market is justified. [8] Inequity
Explain problem (why govt needs to intervene): The free market does not respond to the needs and wants of those without sufficient ability to pay for goods and services and there is a lack of distributive efficiency, as resources do not flow to those who have the greatest need for them.
How government intervenes: Government may impose tax on luxury good to raise revenue from the rich who most often purchase these goods and can afford to pay for them. This helps to distribute wealth from rich to the poor.
Evidence Evaluate
Consumption taxes have long been imposed on luxury items in China to lessen the income gap (Extract 2)
This may be particularly relevant in emerging economies with a growing income gap, and where growth in sales of luxury goods is surging (Extract 2). In China, the gini coefficient has been increasing (Table 2), indicating increasing income inequality.
However, the tax does not achieve its aim of raising taxes from the rich as rich Chinese shoppers can easily travel to HK or Europe to purchase the goods tax free (Extract 2). Hence, it is likely PED>PES. Luxury goods makers bear more of the burden and lay off workers, worsening the income distribution, as these workers tend to be from the lower income group.
Hence not justified since the solution does not
effectively reduce inequity
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 75
Allocative Inefficiency due to Imperfect information
Explain problem (why govt needs to intervene): Misinformation through misleading advertising and insufficient information from online shopping leads to market failure, as PMBperceived> PMBactual leading to overconsumption [diagram required]
How government intervenes: How government intervention moves PMBperceived closer to PMBactual to achieve greater allocative efficiency
Evidence Evaluate
Online shoppers will not be able to see or try the goods before buying them (Extract 1), leading to possibility of suboptimal purchase decisions. Hence legislation involving e-commerce that calls for stricter government regulations may be necessary (Extract 1).
The luxury goods brand Louis Vuitton misled the public by suggesting its expensive leather bags were hand-made. (Extract 4)
Note: Any one of the above points are credited as
one source of government intervention
With an increased need for online presence of luxury retailers to reach out to the younger crowd and new luxury shoppers (Extract 3), there could be an increased incidence of imperfect information involving online shopping.
Luxury good makers and retailers often engage in advertising and creative branding hence misinformation in advertising could be a significant cause for concern.
Hence justified based on increasing prevalence of
the problem. Intervention via stricter regulations
would reduce allocative inefficiency in the luxury
goods market.
However, there is problem of government failure as it is difficult to enforce regulations on the internet realm.
At the same time, government intervention may not be necessary in the presence of independent industry regulators that monitor the truthfulness of the advertisements (Extract 4)
L1 Candidate did not manage to identify the relevant forms of government intervention in the
context, or merely described the forms of government intervention without economic
analysis, or rehash the theoretical analysis of imperfect info and inequity from lecture notes
without reference to case.
L2 Candidate made some reference to case with more detailed and accurate explanations for
government intervention. Candidate may not have explained satisfactorily if intervention is
justified.
L3 Candidate made good reference to case with excellent explanations on whether government
intervention is justified.
Note:
1 point well elaborated with evaluation = Max 4
2 points without any evaluation = Max 5
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Markers Comments
1. Quite a handful of students made no use of theory and gave a very layman description to the problem. E.g.: Inequity causes social problems hence government should intervene. Or, consumers are misled by the luxury goods producers and this is not fair, hence government should intervene.
2. Do note that the question ask if government intervention is justified i.e. what good reasons are there for the government to intervene in the market. There are quite a number of students who did not explain why intervention is justified, rather these students went into the discussion of the effectiveness of the intervention only.
3. A handful did not discuss and instead just explained the market failure. 4. Students often argued that consumption of luxury goods led to negative externality/demerit
goods. That is a far-fetched argument and most importantly the focus of the case was not on externality. It was clearly stated that it is income inequality.
5. Or students often argued that consumption of luxury goods led to income inequality, thus there was a need to reduce the consumption of luxury goods – which was NOT the aim of the consumption tax.
6. Many students argued that consumption tax reduces profits of luxury goods producers. Do not be confused with profit taxes. Profit taxes are imposed to reduce the profit of big firms.
7. Students use TARIFF analysis instead of consumption tax, just because there is a part that states “…shoppers swarmed to HK and Europe for products such as Rolex watches to avoid the hefty tariffs”. But that’s another scenario. What we can infer is that it is possible that consumers may also purchase goods from other countries to avoid CONSUMPTION tax. It’s quite appalling that they even drew tariff diagrams.
8. Students used Table 2 where gini coefficient for China is rising to argue that the consumption tax is ineffective in reducing the income inequality. This is not true. Table 2 only shows the gini coefficient up to 2009. Extract which talks about imposing the consumption tax is in 2012. Do be more sensitive to the details of the data given.
9. Some students argued that there should not be a ban of advertisements as it will reduce the profits of firms. This is similar to the mistake made in Timed Assignment 2. Why should the government place the firms’ profit level at top priority?
10. Some students also made the mistake of arguing that banning of advertisement should not take place as there is bigger welfare loss. Basically this group of students treated banning of advertisement as banning of the product.
11. Incorrect identification of deadweight loss area in diagram
12. Many actually concluded that since luxury goods is not public good or there is no externality hence government intervention is not justified!!! This shows that the candidate does not understand market failure. There are other sources of market failure other than public goods and externalities which can justify governments’ intervention.
13. Students did not use case materials to discuss justification for government intervention. Hence they use reasons such as market dominance which is not relevant in this case.
14. Also, this is not a macroeconomics question – governments do intervene to achieve microeconomic aims of equality & efficiency – do not link question to achievement of macro goals.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
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e) Discuss how firms in luxury goods retail market might compete with each other. [10] Price Competition
Lower end luxury brands and online discount retailers may practice price competition through
offering discounts on off-season merchandise. This lowering of price is to increase the quantity
demanded for the good and thereby increasing the share of the market.
Elaborate Evidence
As off-season luxury goods are less fashionable, consumers may be more sensitive to changes in prices of these items. Hence as these goods may have PED>1, charging a cheaper price will lead to a more than proportional increase in quantity demanded of the good, hence total revenue will increase for the firm.
Within the luxury good market there are online discount retailers that have built their brand on price, such as online flash sales sites. They may compete more in terms of price.
Manufacturers such as Coach and Polo Ralph Lauren have a legacy of using discount outlets to liquidate excess goods without diluting brands.
EV: Possible that this discounting is not an attempt
to undercut competitor but pricing in response to
lower demand. Demand for these unfashionable
goods may have decreased compared to when it was
first introduced, hence accounting for the fall in
price. At the same time, demand for these goods are
also more price-elastic.
Non-price competition
Promotions and discounting can boost their financial performance of high-end luxury retailers,
especially in the short term. However, in the long run shrinking profit margins are a real concern (Ext
4) due to the mutual interdependence of luxury goods retailers in the market.
Hence the retailers tend to avoid price competition.
Elaborate Evidence
Luxury good retailers and makers lack the freedom to engage in price competition due to the need to maintain exclusivity and value of their goods.
Lifting: Discounting and promotions could lead to loss of prestige, especially amongst more traditional luxury shoppers (Extract 1). Explaining: This means that if the luxury good is
not seen as exclusive and prestigious by
consumers, they will not buy the brand causing
demand for the luxury good to fall.
Their tendency to engage in non-price competition to differentiate their goods through branding (lower PED) also allows them to charge higher prices than competitors, without suffering a greater than proportional fall in quantity demanded and hence total revenue does not fall.
Hence there is lack of incentive to undercut their rivals’ price.
Lifting: Luxury retailers have built brands on image and lifestyle that can withstand greater competitive pricing differences (Extract 1). Explaining: Due to the successful branding which
helps to differentiate the brand from its rivals,
the CED is lowered. Ie. Even if rivals lowers price,
demand for the brand will only be affected less
than proportionately.
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78 :: ECONSABLAZE
Instead, these firms tend to engage in non-price competition.
Elaborate Evidence
The firms increase demand for their goods through expanding into new territories (increase number of consumers), advertising (changing taste and preference of consumers) and providing premium services.
The firms differentiate their products through branding and advertising. They also establish brand loyalty through maintaining the quality of goods and image of the brand; this makes the demand for their goods price inelastic (ability to raise prices). Or, Low CED (ability to withstand rivals’ price
cuts)
The supernormal profits they earn enable them to engage in product development and advertising.
Factors which attract customers include a sense of belonging, ensuring the right celebrity is attached to the brand, being highly selective about where new stores are opened and providing a premium service (Extract 4)
French rival Herm s moved fast as markets changed. Its growth strategy included opening and renovating 32 stores worldwide and forging into new territories (Extract 4).
High profit margins of 55-75 percent
Extract 4 suggests that maintaining exclusivity and never going on sale is an important consideration
for attracting customers to buy luxury goods. Luxury good retailers, particularly the higher end
brands such as LV and Hermes predominantly engage in non-price competition although lower-end
luxury brands such as Coach and online discount retailers may engage in price competition.
Online discount retailers of luxury goods have the ability and incentive to carry out price competition
as they face lower fixed costs (they do not pay rental as they run online shop front rather than luxury
boutiques) and hence can provide deeper discounts.
Also, discount and lower end luxury retailers target different markets than high end luxury brands.
Higher end brands target the more traditional prestige conscious shoppers. On the other hand,
lower end brands target the more budget conscious luxury consumers who have a more price elastic
demand for luxury goods.
L3 Good, balanced analysis based on the case material and good use of economic analysis
L2 Explains the strategies of luxury good retailers using economics and with some references made to
the case material.
L1 Describes strategies of luxury good retailers in a general manner (no/minimal use of economics)
and with little reference to case material.
E1 Attempts to synthesise when there are conflicting views.
E2 Provide good synthesis and a reasoned conclusion.
e.g. Ability to point out that non-price competition is the predominant form of competition
amongst luxury retailers due to importance of maintaining prestige of brand, while price
competition is only used in targeting certain segments of the market which are more price
sensitive through sale of goods that have lower demand from past seasons.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 79
Markers Comments
1. Candidates were often able to identify clearly whether a strategy in the case extract was price or non-price competition. However, there was lack of concerted effort in many scripts to apply economic concepts and theory to rationalize those strategies. At the other extreme, some students were contented to regurgitate theory on oligopoly, even explaining predatory pricing and price wars, without regard for case evidence and whether the points were relevant to the issue.
2. Quite a handful stated that luxury goods market is monopolistic competitive because the goods are differentiated. This is not a good way to decide whether a market is monopolistic competitive because differentiated goods is not a distinguishing characteristic.
3. Many were confused with price competition and price discrimination. 4. Many still had problems with application of PED, CED and YED. Note: if you are analyzing how
much the price cut by rival firms affect demand for your good, you should be using CED (and not PED). If you are analyzing how the performance of the economy affects the demand for your good, you should be using YED (and not PED). So when do you use PED? - When you are deciding whether to cut/raise price (not as a reaction to other factors but your own decision).
Question 2 a(i) How does the value of the Euro in 2010 compare to its value in 2008? [1]
Euro depreciated against the USD over this period (1m)
Examiner’s report:
Many students used decrease/lower to describe depreciation which is incorrect terminology.
A few students gave the answer as devaluation. This shows lack of conceptual understanding of between depreciation vs devaluation.
The examiners accepted weakened; but it should be noted that for future answers about exchange rate, one should use appreciated / depreciated in one’s answer.
a(ii) With the use of an appropriate diagram, account for this change in the value of the Euro from 2008 to 2010. [3]
Explain one factor leading to depreciation of the Euro, explaining the impact on both the demand and supply of the Euro – diagram (1m)
Explanation Evidence
Demand for Euro: Speculators/ Investors’ confidence in the Euro is lowered. They hence anticipate a fall in the value of the Euro. As such, there will be a fall in demand for the Euro (1m)
Supply of Euro: Investor sell off their holdings of Euro, increasing the supply in the Forex Market.
Introduction: “...and is hurting investors’ confidence” Extract 5: “..as investors wonder if Greece’s fiscal crisis will spread... The Euro in the past six months has fallen by about 17% against the USD as investors rushed to ditch the currency.
Examiner’s report:
Many students had problems with labeling of the axes.
For the y-axis, it should read Price of Euro in USD, and the x-axis should read Quantity of Euro.
In the analysis, students lost marks as they focus either on the demand OR the supply of Euro.
Full credit was awarded to students who were able to describe how BOTH a reduction in demand and increase in supply of Euro lead to the depreciation of the Euro.
A handful of students used what happened to Greece’s/Germany’s current account to account for the change in Euro. This is not the best figure to use as the demand and supply of Euro is affected by the demand for imports and exports of all the Euro countries not just Greece/Germany.
It is also important as a Case Study skill to link the factor affecting to Demand and Supply to the information given in the extract(s).
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 81
b(i) Describe the trend of Greece’s inward FDI from rest of the world from 2008 to 2010 in Table 3. [1]
Inward FDI into Greece fell from 2008 to 2010. Examiner’s report:
Many students were able to answer this question.
In terms of presentation, it should be noted that exact values/ numbers are not required to secure the 1 m.
Students should note that if they decide to quote figures, they should cite correct figures/ period. This is because even if they gave the right trend but gave the wrong figures/ period, then no marks will be awarded.
Although majority of the students were able to score 1m for this question, a minority struggled with the statistics. It is insignificant to say that the FDI is positive. This is inward FDI not a net figure hence it is obvious that it must be a positive figure. Also a few students actually said that the Inward FDI increased!!
(ii) In light of the data presented, comment on the likely impact of this change in value of the Euro described in a(i) on Greece’s Balance of Payments. [5]
Introduction: Depreciation of the euro is supposed to have a positive impact on the BOP of Greece.
Table 3: Current account (2m) Table 3: Financial account (2m)
Depreciation will make Greece’s exports relatively cheaper in terms of USD, while at the same time makes imports more expensive in terms of the euro. If we assume Marshal Lerner condition hold, then this will result in an improvement in the Greece’s BOT position and its BOP will improve. Evidences: Table 3: From the figures on current account, we do see that there is an improvement in Greece current acct from 2008 – 2010 as the deficit in the current acct is improving
With the depreciation of the euro, there could be an inflow of FDI into Greece as it is cheaper to do business in Greece. Evidences: Table 3: However, if one examines the FDI inflows into Greece, we see that from 2008 to 2010, the inward FDI as percentage of GDP has been falling in Greece. This could be explained by the fact that even though it may be cheaper to invest in Greece, business optimism could be very low due to the on-going crisis that no new investment is flowing into Greece Extract 5: Few investors or businesses are brave enough to make long-term bets on the Greek economy in these conditions.
Note: Students are required to comment on the impact on the current and financial accounts that make up BOP. Conclusion : The depreciation of the euro should lead to an improvement in the BOP position. However, based on the data presented, it is unclear if the BOP position of Greece will improve as the data shows an improvement in current acct position but a worsening financial acct. (1m) OR (Alternatively, students may point out that given that financial acct covers more components than inward FDI into Greece, we are unable then to conclude if BOP position will improve due to incomplete picture/ data).
Examiner’s report:
Many students were able to answer explain how depreciation leads to an improvement in the Balance of Payments.
There are a few points/ improvement that can be made to some of the answer(s)
There is a need to link theory to actual data; many students were able to explain how depreciation affected both the current and financial accounts under Balance of Payments in theory, however, they fail to link this to data to see if latter collaborate with this analysis.
In explaining the changes to exports and imports, there are still a handful of students that need to improve on their phrasing. They wrote that the price of exports is cheaper compared to foreign goods and the price of imports more expensive. This is not correct as the producers/ firms have not adjusted prices of exports/ imports.
The correct phrasing should be such that depreciation will result in the price of export being relatively cheaper in foreign currency (i.e. USD) and the price of imports is relatively more expensive in Euro.
Many students FAILED to understand that for a depreciation of the Euro, it is sufficient to simply explain the need for Marshal Lerner condition. It was incorrect to further attach the assumption that both price elasticity of exports and imports should be elastic. Do note that for ML condition to be satisfied it is possible that PEDx<1 and PEDm<1.
Many students also failed to understand that the data does not have enough information for us to conclude if the BOP will improve / worsen.
Other refinements to some answers are : “depreciation would result in an improvement in the current account” - more precisely, should be on Balance on Trade
“ export increase and import falls” – could mean quantity, should rephrase to export rev and import expenditure, not on the quantity
Student should learn to use the right terms to describe the BOP/ BOT position – worsen/ improve rather than increase/ decrease. In addition, there is no such word “deproving”
There are a handful of students that wrongly state that FDI is captured under capital or current account. It should be Financial account (as per HCI lecture notes)
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 83
c(i) Compare the unemployment rate for Greece and Germany over the period 2006 to 2011. [2]
Similar : Both show increasing trend (1m) Difference: Unemployment rate for Greece is always higher than that for Germany (1m)
Examiner’s report:
Many students were able to display the skill required for this question, by pointing out a similarity and difference.
Students failed to obtain full credit because they did not summarise the trend in unemployment and chose to explain year-to-year change in unemployment.
This is also important that even calculating rate of change for this question, the rate is not merely a difference in percentages. For example, the rate of change in unemployment for Greece is not a mere 8.2% (17.1 – 8.9 but 9%; (i.e 8.2/8.9*100)
c(ii) Discuss whether the data provided will lead one to conclude that the current and future standard of living for Germany is higher than Greece. [8]
Introduction (KIA)
Key Words The standard of living (SOL) encompasses both material and non-material aspect.
Issues / Approach
The answer will comment on the SOL between Greece and Germany using data given.
Current - Material SOL
Yes - Material SOL is higher in Germany
Unemployment rate in Germany is lower compared to Greece
Domestic consumption in Germany is higher than Greece When more people being employed and domestic consumption being higher in Germany, we can infer that the level of material SOL is higher for Germany
No - Material SOL is not higher in Germany
Domestic consumption does not measure how much each person consume, data should give consumption per capita.
There is also a need to include the income distribution (as measured by Gini coefficient) in Greece and Germany.
Other indicators such as the GDP per capita will also more useful as it consider the population of the countries.
In addition, a better indicator for comparing material SOL will be to use the GDP in PPP terms as it will measure the relative inflation between Germany and Greece.
If the increase in production leads to more NEGATIVE externalities generated (in the form of pollution), then cannot conclude if the non-material SOL for Germany is higher.
The higher level of production could also be at the expense of workers having to work longer hours and less leisure time.
Note: Students need to account for any 2 of these points.
Current - Non-material aspect of SOL is not higher in Germany If we compare social indicators such as life expectancy and infant mortality rates between the two
countries, inconclusive as to which country is better off in the non-material aspect of SOL
Future SOL
Future SOL – higher in Germany
If we compare the investment (i.e. Gross FCF), the fact that Germany is making more investment will meant that the increase in productive capacity will enable Germany to produce more in the next period (future) as compared to Greece
If we assume that the increase in German capacity in production of more G&S is for domestic consumption rather than imports, then we can conclude that the material SOL is higher for Germany)
Conclusion Based on the indicators given, it is inconclusive as to whether the SOL is higher for Germany.
L1 Candidate only explained material SOL with little or no elaboration on non-material and LT comparison in SOL. No attempt was made to link with data provided.
L2 Candidate explained material and non-material SOL but did not have LT comparison in SOL. Some references was made using data provided.
L3 Candidate provided an excellent explanation of the current and future SOL for Greece and Germany using data provided.
Examiner’s report:
Many students failed to understand that while we can use the real GDP growth as an indicator of the SOL for a particular country over time, it is not a good gauge of SOL across countries. A country could have higher growth rates over another but still have a lower GDP. Hence the data is insufficient as there is no real GDP per capita figures for Greece and Germany.
Many students did not understand that life expectancy and infant mortality are social indicators to measure non-material SOL.
Many students failed to recognize that gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) gives an indicator of the future production capability of the country. As such, Germany which has a higher level of GFCF would have the possibility of higher SOL in the future.
Instead, most students referred to the austerity measures in Greece and concluded that future SOL must be lower since austerity measures have contractionary impact on the NI of Greece. When the question asks for future SOL, the examiner is asking for the productive capacity so you have to look at capital formation/investment expenditure.
Though students recognize that there are certain limitations in the data, they still concluded that Germany has a higher SOL compared to Greece.
(d) Discuss how the austerity measures will help alleviate the recession EU? [10]
Introduction (KIA)
Key Words Austerity measures that countries need to implement to restore confidence in the economy.
Issues Austerity measures are meant to help Greece and other European economies in returning to the initial agreement to control / limit gov’t budget deficit (within 3% of GDP) and debt ratio to GDP (to 60%). However, this may not alleviate the situation in the SR for most EU countries.
Approach This answer will consider the short and long implications of these measures on alleviating the problems in the EU countries.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 85
Body (Use SEEDS) – State, Elaborate, Exemplify (Data/ Diagram), Synthesis Thesis: Will not help (in SR): In the SR, the austerity that involves spending cuts may not help to alleviate the situation. We will now consider what the SR impact on the economy using the AD-AS model.
State (Austerity measure)
Exemplify (Evidences) Elaboration
1. Reduction in budget deficit =>Reduction in G
Extract 6 “cut in government spending” “New powers … the right to levy fines on countries that fail to comply with austerity measures to bring budget deficits to within the European Economic and Monetary Union’s 3 percent target” Extract 6: As a result of the harsh austerity measures, growth in EU is expected to be 0.2% this year. Note: This is to convey idea that the austerity measures have a contractionary effect on EU economies. Table 3: Recession in Greece from 2008 to 2011.
A reduction in the budget deficit can be brought about by a fall in G or/ and a rise in T) =>a fall in the G (which is a component of AD) will cause a fall in AD This will lead to a multiple
decrease in real NY (Use AD-AS or Y = AE to illustrate) causing the economy to go further into a recession.
This is manifested in country like Greece where from table 4, we can use that Greece has been experiencing a recession since 2008.
The austerity measures will therefore make the situation in Greece worse
2. Reduction in wages =>Reduction in Consumption/ fall in AD and increase in unemployment => (Some students may interpret as fall in wages leading to rise in AS due to lower Cost of production)
Extract 6: A pay freeze for most public sector workers Table 4: A fall in final household consumption expenditure
This pay freeze/ reduction in wages will result in a fall in household consumption as households tighten their “belts”. As C is a component of AD,
there will be a multiple fall in real NY via the multiplier process.
This will also cause a fall in employment.
Note: Students could possibly analyse this as leading to a rise in AS (due to lower cost of production) as wages stagnate/ fall However, one would also
argue that this fall in cost of production may not be significant as it is the public
sector’s wages that is affected. This may not trickle to all sectors of the economy and would also be dependent on the size of the public sector in most of the EU countries. Thus it is inconclusive then to assert that AS would increase based on data presented.
3. Increasing taxes for high income earners =>Increase in Direct taxes, rise in personal income taxes
Extract 6: Some higher earners will
also face higher taxes.
This will reduce the disposable income of households and will lead to a fall in household consumption. In addition, the higher taxes may reduce the incentive to work and in LR lead to fall in LRAS. Both of these effects will cause a fall in real NY and rise in unemployment.
4. Un-intended consequences of austerity measure - Reduce business confidence and lead to fall in investments AND weakening of the euro
Extract 5: Few investors or
businesses are brave enough to
make long-term bets on the Greek
economy in these conditions.
Investment is down by almost half
from four years ago
Extract 5: The currency has come
under heavy pressure as investors
wonder if Greece’s fiscal crisis will
spread to other heavily indebted
economies within the EU. The euro
in the past six months has fallen by
about 17% against the US dollar as
investors rushed to ditch the
currency
Some of the un-intended consequences of the austerity measures is a fall in business confidence => this will lead to a fall in investments by firms This has the same
deflationary effect on the economy as FALL in C and G as I is a component of AD
In addition, investors may lose confidence in the euro and sell it in the forex market. This will cause the forex to depreciation of the euro viz-a-viz other currencies. An depreciation should have
an expansionary impact on the economy through an increase in X and possibly an inflow of FDI
However, from table 1, we can see that the inflow of FDI for Greece has fallen since 2009. So the impact on FDI is not positive one for Greece.
BLOCK TEST ANSWERS
ECONSABLAZE :: 87
Evaluation: However, it is to be noted that the austerity measures may not hurt all of EU countries in the same negative way as Greece. If we examine the German economy, we can see that the except for 2009, it has enjoying economic growth from 2006 to 2011 (TABLE 4).
Anti-thesis: Will help The austerity measures are aimed at restoring confidence. Extract 6 “In the short term, Europe is being forced to demonstrate to investors it can manage its deficits to bring back confidence in the region”. This will help the economies from sliding further into recesssion At the same time, Europe should use this as an opportunity to re-structure their economy to be more competitive by raising workers’ productivity. Extract 6, “But in the longer term, it will have to show a political will to increase productivity”.
State (Austerity measure)
Exemplify (Evidences) Elaboration
1. Many of the EU countries such as Greece must get their budget deficit down.
Extract 5: “Greece needs to reduce its debt to GDP ratio from the current 160% to 120.5% by 2020.” Extract 6: Europe is being forced to demonstrate to investors it can manage its deficits to bring back confidence in the region”.
Previously, the ease of credit has made many of these gov’t being laxed and they did not exercise prudence in their budget.
In reducing the public sector debt ratio in many of these countries, the intention is to restore investors’ confidence Note: In SR, this may not be beneficial to the economies but the aim of these measues is to prevent the economies from sliding further.
Evaluation: Even though it is mentioned in the extract concerning the supply-side slant of the austerity measures, there is no additional information other than curbing of budget deficit and to within the EMU 3 % target. (extract 6).
Synthesis (FEAST)
1. The austerity measures in themselves may not result in improving the competitiveness of European economies as the gov’t in many of these countries would still need to contend with powerful trade union with established “labour laws that make hiring and firing difficult”.
2. In addition, we are unclear of what the supply-side policies are. It seem that the over-riding aim is simply to tame the budget deficit / and the debt to GDP ratio. There is no mention of gov’t spending on infrastructure, education and training that will increase the LR productive capacity of the EU economies. In fact, if we examine the level of investment (for Greece, table 1), their focus on austerity is leading to a lower level of capital formation which may hurt their LR capacity (i.e. LRAS).
3. In the face of the deflationary effects of austerity measures, the more appropriate policy that should be pursued in the SR may be demand management policies (i.e. increasing G) while at the same time targeting productivity to raise the competitiveness of the economy; which are longer term measures. This is in line with such Keynesian economists like Krugman who felt that “the right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending AFTER the economy has recovered”. (extract 6)
Conclusion
The austerity measures will make the situation worse for EU countries but if it can use the time to restructure its economy, then will help in the LR as the economy becomes more competitive.
L1 Candidate was not able to explain what the austerity measures entailed and merely
explained any contractionary policies (such as fiscal or monetary) with no reference made to
case.
L2 Candidate made some references to case with more detailed and accurate explanations of
what the austerity measures entailed. They may not have use diagrams and only presented a
one-sided view.
L3 Candidate made good references to case with excellent explanations accompanied by
appropriate diagrams.
Examiner’s report:
This question is not well-attempted with many students getting a L1 for analysis.
The main weakness lie in the fact that students were generally not able to see the real intent of the austerity measures and were not able to see that in the SR, the austerity measures would actually contract the economy.
In terms of understanding context, there were some students that explained with the contraction in the economy, general price level (inflation) will decrease and this will boost the export sector as Europe’s exports will be more price competitive. While this is correct analysis, this failed to understand that in a recession, prices will be already low and a lowering of the AD over the Keynesian Range in the AD-AS framework may not work to further reduce the general price level.
Many students simply identified the measures as fiscal policies without recognizing the supply-side impact (i.e. wage cuts) on the economy. As such, they did not see tht SRAS could be increased due to the reduction in cost of production.
Many students also failed to give a good evaluation to the question with many simply saying that instead of fiscal policies, supply-side and monetary policies should be used.
Some students also confuse fiscal debt with balance of trade/payment deficit
Some students immediately equated austerity measures to contractionary fiscal policy or worse monetary policy
A handful of students explained that austerity measures help to reduce fiscal debt hence government can spend on other areas and G increases. These students failed to recognize that austerity measures aims to reduce government spending any increase in G should not be immediate.
Many students also failed to use AD/AS analysis in their analysis ie. These answers tend to be descriptive.