economy watch - moderngov.sutton.gov.uk · 2015/16 and 38.9% fewer than q4 2014/15. the average...

Economy Watch

2015/16, Quarter 4: January – March 2016

London Borough of Sutton

1 Agenda Item 5

Contents

1. Introduction & Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 3 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3

2. Indicator Summary Tables ........................................................................................................ 5

3. Full Indicator Tables ................................................................................................................. 7 1. Businesses .................................................................................................................................. 7 2. Benefits & Employment ........................................................................................................... 16 3. Housing ..................................................................................................................................... 32 4. Planning .................................................................................................................................... 37 5. Children’s Centres and Schools ................................................................................................ 41 6. Sutton Citizen’s Advice Bureaux (CAB) ..................................................................................... 45

4. Appendix – Data Sources ........................................................................................................ 47

Page 12Agenda Item 5

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1. Introduction & Executive Summary

Introduction The economic health of the borough can be reflected by a wide range of statistics; from employment rates to high street vitality, or from debt advice to planning and development activity. The purpose of this Economy Watch report is to provide a six monthly overview of the borough’s economic health and its impacts on residents, businesses and the council, as demonstrated by a range of performance indicators. The report draws together contributions from a wide range of council departments, Sutton Housing partnership, Sutton Citizens Advice Bureau and other data sources. Due to time lags in data becoming available, national data sources are not always relevant for presenting a timely and holistic picture of the borough’s current economic health. Consequently, the national data sources presented here have been complimented by data drawn from within the council and local partners, so as to provide a more complete picture of the local economy. The data presented here is reported regularly and feeds into the Opportunity Sutton growth programme to assess the impact on jobs and growth throughout the Borough.

Executive Summary

The percentage of empty and exempt properties (borough wide) in Q4 2015/16 saw an increase of 2.4% from Q3 2015/16. There was no increase from Q4 2014/15.

On average, 54 businesses a month defaulted on NNDR payments in Q4 2015/16, an increase of 13.4% on Q3 2014/15. This is a small cohort.

In Q4 2015/16 1 business went into administration.

In Q4 2015/16 there were 343 new business start-ups, 2.7% more than in Q4 2014/15.

82.7% of the working age population in Sutton were economically active during the year up to and including December 2015, higher than the London and GB averages. This is an increase of 1.5% when compared with the previous quarter.

On average 1,050 residents claimed JSA in Q4 2015/16, 13.7% fewer than in Q3 2015/16 and 38.9% fewer than Q4 2014/15.

The average number collecting JSA for 12 months or more was lower in Q4 2015/16 (300), a fall of 2.6% on the previous quarter. Compared to Q4 2014/15 this is a 28.6% reduction.

In Q4 2015/16 the number of 18-24 year olds collecting JSA was 49.5% lower than in Q4 2014/15.

There has been a 42.9% reduction in the number of JSA claimants aged 25 to 49 in Q4 2015/16 compared to Q4 2014/15.

The number of 50+ year olds claiming JSA in Q4 2015/16 was 21.1% lower than in Q4 2014/15.

1. Businesses

2. Benefits & Employment

Page 13 Agenda Item 5

4

An average of 647 people per month defaulted on Council tax payments in Q4 2015/16, a decrease of 4.7% when compared with Q4 2014/15. Compared to Q3 2015/16 this was an increase of 343%.

In Q4 2015/16 house prices of all types of property have continued to increase in Sutton. In Q4 2015/16 there was a 12.6% increase on Q4 2014/15 and a 3.9% increase on Q3 2015/16.

In Q4 2015/16 emergency placements saw a fall of 9.6% on Q4 2014/15. Costs are up 89.9% on Q4 2014/15 and 45.1% on Q3 2015/16.

In Q4 2015/16 there was an increase of 2.9% in the number of minor planning applications as compared to Q4 2014/15. Major planning applications received by the council increased in Q4 2015/16 by 200% when compared to Q4 2014/15.

Residential Units granted planning permission has seen a 59.2% rise in applications from Q3 2014/15 to Q3 2015/16.

By Q2 2015/16, the baseline for teen parents reached by children’s centres had been exceeded. In Q4 2015/16. The percentage of lone parents reached was 60%, and for workless households the percentage reached was 30%.

The proportion of full-time primary school children who are claiming for free school meals (FSM) has continued to decrease. Compared to January 2015 there has been a 0.5% reduction on the number of children claiming FSM in Primary Schools. In secondary schools, for the same period, there was a 9.5% decrease in those claiming FSM.

Children attending special schools are still most likely to be eligible for FSM with 43.6% of children in a special school claiming FSM in January 2016. This was a decrease of 12.3% since January 2015.

There has been a 10.6% increase in the total number of enquiries made at CAB in Q4 2015/16 compared to Q3 2015/16.

Council Tax Debt enquiries have increased by 65% between Q3 2015/16 and Q4 2015/16.

Welfare and Benefit enquiries continue to be the major reason for enquiries with a rise of 70.6% between Q4 2014/15 and Q4 2015/16.

3. Housing

4. Planning

5. Children’s Centres and Schools

6. Citizens Advice Bureau


5

2. Indicator Summary Tables

1. Businesses Period Data

% Change from

previous year

% Change from last quarter

1a. Empty properties Q4 2015/16 470 0.5% 2.7%

1b. Businesses defaulting on NNDR payments Q4 2015/16 54 13.4% 544%

1c. Businesses going into administration Q4 2015/16 0 -66.7% 0%

1d. Town centre footfall Q4 2015/16 1,898,400 -6.2% -7.37%

1e. Business Start ups Q4 2015/16 343 2.7% 0.0%

1f. Net business growth Q4 2014/15 88 -37.1% 19%

2. Benefits and Employment

Period Data

% Change from

previous year


2a. Economic activity rate: aged 16-64 Jan 2015 to Dec 2015

82.7% 0.7% 1.5%

2b. Job Seekers Allowance Q4 2015/16 1050 -38.9% -13.7%

2c. JSA claimants: 12+ months Q4 2015/16 300 -28.6% -2.6%

2d. JSA claimants: aged 18-24 Q4 2015/16 162 -49.5% -21.9%

2e. JSA claimants: aged 25-49 Q4 2015/16 562 -42.9% -14.9%

2f. JSA claimants: aged 50-64 Q4 2015/16 325 -21.1% -6.3%

2g. Employment & support allowance & incapacity benefit

Aug-15 5270 -2.6% -1.9%

2h. Lone parents benefit Aug-15 1190 -6.3% -3.3%

2i. Active claimants of Housing benefit Q4 2015/16 11894 -7.1% -2.6%

New claims Q4 2015/16 170 -38.7% -27.5%

2j. Active claimants of Council Tax reduction Q4 2015/16 11392 -9.6% -2.0%

New claims Q4 2015/16 246 -10.9% -12.1%

2k. Number defaulting on council tax payments Q4 2015/16 647 -4.7% 343.4%

3. Housing Period Data

% Change from

previous year


3a. Average price of house sales (Detached) Q4 2015/16 758,205 12.6% 3.9%

3a. Average price of house sales (Semi) Q4 2015/16 440,011 12.6% 3.9%

3a. Average price of house sales (Terraced) Q4 2015/16 341,929 12.6% 3.9%

3a. Average price of house sales (Flat) Q4 2015/16 256,182 12.6% 3.9%

3b. LHA rates (see main body of report) Q4 2015/16 - - -

3c. Number of placements in Emergency Accommodation

Q4 2015/16 104 -9.6% 5.1%

3d. Net cost of Emergency Accommodation Q4 2015/16 203,201 89.9% 45.1%


6

4. Planning Period Data

% Change from

previous year


4a. Minor planning applications received Q4 2015/16 106 2.9 -10.2%

4b. Major planning applications received Q4 2015/16 21 200% 110%

4c. Number residential units approved through minor and major planning permissions

Q3 2015/15 382 59.2 75.2

4d. Non-residential Sq. ft. approved through minor and major planning permissions

Q3 2015/15 -6808 N/A N/A


Period Data

% Change from

previous year


6a. Children’s centre reach (see main body of report)

Q4 2015/16 - - -

6b. Free school meals: primary pupils Jan-16 11.5% -0.5% 3.6%

6c. Free school meals: secondary pupils Jan-16 7.8% -9.5% -3.2%

6d. Free school meals: special school pupils Jan-16 43.6% -12.3% -17.6%

6. Citizen’s Advice Bureau

Period Data

% Change from

previous year


7a. Total number of enquiries Q4 2015/16 2156 -17.2% 10.6%

7b. Debt advice enquiries Q4 2015/16 16.5% 3.8% -9.3%

7c. Employment enquiries Q4 2015/16 10.8% 12.5% -2.7%

7d. Family/relationship enquiries Q4 2015/16 13.5% 35.0% 8.9%

7e. Housing enquiries Q4 2015/16 21.7% 27.6% 4.3%

7f. Welfare benefit enquiries Q4 2015/16 34.3% 70.6% 3.6%

7g. Council tax enquiries Q4 2015/16 3.3% 65.0% -26.7%

Improvement

No Change

Deterioration


7

3. Full Indicator Tables

1a. Number of Empty Properties The number of empty properties can indicate both the resilience of businesses to survive in economic decline as well as confidence by businesses to fill properties. Empty properties can also have a negative effect on the high street and customer/shopper experience. Context The total number of empty or exempt properties in 2010 averaged 517 a month, decreasing to 471 in 2011, 426 in 2012 and 419 in 2013. In 2014 this had increased up to an average of 450. Since Q1 2015/16 where numbers reached 484, the number of properties empty or exempt has been falling. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16 when compared to Q3 2015/16 there was an increase in the number of exempt or empty properties of 2.7%. When compared to Q4 2014/15 there was an increase of 0.5%.

Figure 1: Number of empty properties, April 2010 – Mar 2016

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and benefits

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2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Quarterly Average

Rolling Quarterly Average

1. Businesses


8

Table 1: Empty properties, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change

from previous quarter

% Change

from previous

year

Q4

Average Q3

Average Jan Feb Mar

Q4 Average

No. empty/ exempt

properties 468 458 466 470 474 470 2.7% 0.5%

% of empty/ exempt

properties 11.3% 11.0% 11.2% 11.3% 11.4% 11.3% 2.7% 0.0%

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and benefits Note: Empty properties are exempt for the first three months and then pay empty property rate. If the property has a low rateable value then it may be exempt after the first three months.

1b. Number of businesses defaulting on National Non-Domestic Rates (NNDR) payments This is an early indicator of businesses which may go into administration. Context NNDR defaults are based on the number of businesses that have received a summons for late payment. The delivery of a summons is dependent on the scheduling/timetabling of court dates, as there must be a certain number of weeks between delivery and the date of the summons. The number of summons issued in a month can therefore be influenced by the number of working days within a month. There are also a number of specific seasonal variations: in March there is not normally a summons run; in May and June, there is the first summons run of the year, which normally has a high count, creating a steep peak in Q1; and there are usually less summons in December over the Christmas period, which often creates a spike in January. The monthly profile of businesses defaulting on NNDR payments is therefore erratic; however, reporting this indicator as a quarterly rolling annual average smoothed out these short-term seasonal fluctuations and highlights longer-term trends. This reveals that the number of companies defaulting on NNDR slowly reduced from an average of 198 in 2008/09 to 128 in 2010/11. Numbers then rose and fell again with a significant rise in the year to Q2 2013/14 to 232. The highest point in the series was an average of 389 businesses defaulting on NNDR payments in Q1 2013/14. The last peak was in Q1 2014/15 which saw an average of 351. Latest figures There were no summonses in March 2016. The number of businesses defaulting on NNDR payments in Q4 2015/16 when compared to Q4 2014/15 has increased by 13.4%.


9

Figure 2: Number of NNDR defaults, Q1 2007/08 – Q4 2015/16


Table 2: NNDR defaults, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change from

previous year

Q4

Average Q3

Average Jan Feb Mar

Q4 Average

No. defaulting on NNDR

47 8 125 36 0 54 544.0% 13.4%


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2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Quarterly Total

Rolling Annual Average


10

1c. Number of businesses going into administration This indicator monitors how many businesses are susceptible to economic decline. Unlike empty properties, it includes businesses which may not be run from an office/shop. Context Other than high counts in May and June 2010, peaks of 4 businesses going into administration occurred in five of the six months from August 2011 to January 2012. 5 businesses also went into administration in October 2012. Throughout 2013, a total of 11 businesses went into administration. Some months saw no businesses going into administration. 2014 saw a total of 12 businesses going into administration. Latest figures Q4 2015/16 saw one company going into administration. This was the first one of the financial year.

Figure 3: Number of businesses going into administration, Q1 2010/11 – Q4 2015/16


0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1

Q2

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Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Quarterly Total



11

Table 3: Businesses going into administration, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4

Average Q3

Average Jan Feb Mar

Q4 Average

Businesses going into

administration 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0% -66.7%


1d. Town Centre footfall

This measure shows how many people are visiting the town centre, and can be used to review the success of certain town centre initiatives. Context Town centre footfall data are available from monitoring points at three locations on Sutton High Street. Figures are reported on a monthly basis; since footfall exhibits a seasonal pattern, the figures have also been presented here as a moving annual average, so that the longer term trend can be observed. Comparable footfall data for both Greater London and “UK High Streets” are available in terms of the month-on-month percentage change. Consequently, these two data series are presented here on an indexed basis, baseline at 100.0 in April 2013. From 2011 to 2013, Sutton experienced a steady downward trend in town centre footfall. 2014 saw an upturn in town centre footfall with a peak in March 2014. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16 town centre footfall showed a decrease of 7.4% when compared to Q3 2015/16. Both Greater London and UK High Streets have seen decreases in footfall since Q1 2014/15. The long-term trend, based on the rolling annual average continues to travel in a downward direction.


12

Figure 4: Sutton High Street footfall, April 2013 – March 2016

Source: Springboard Table 4: Change in footfall, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4 Avg

Q3 Avg

Jan Feb Mar Q4 Avg

Sutton footfall

2,023,348 2,049,452 1,791,848 1,733,616 2,169,735 1,898,400 -7.4% -6.2%

Sutton – indexed

114.5 116.0 101.4 98.1 122.8 107 -7.4% -6.2%

Greater London - indexed

93.2 86.1 76.1 79.5 79.6 78 -9.0% -15.9%

UK Towns & Cities - indexed

98.6 94.3 78.7 83.7 83.9 82 -12.9% -16.7%

Source: Springboard

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(in

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April 2010)

Fo

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all

(mill

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Sutton - monthly footfall

Greater London - moving annual average (indexed)

UK high streets - moving annual average (indexed)

Sutton - moving annual average


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1e. Business Start Ups This measure provides a good indication of the levels of entrepreneurialism within the borough and levels of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs); however, it should be noted that not all businesses will have a business account, and a business registered in Sutton will not necessarily practice in Sutton. Context There is no definitive seasonal pattern to business start-ups, although historically, there have been fewer each December and more each March. Rolling annual averages show that whilst there was a period of ‘buoyancy’ from the end of 2008 through to May 2012, new start-ups entered a period of decline. 2010 saw an average of 146 new start-ups per month, 2011 saw 159; 2012 saw 135; 2013 saw and 2014 saw 109. 2015 has seen the trend start to go up again with an average of 117. All data is produced by Bank Search by calendar year rather than financial year. This means that their data appears to be ahead by one quarter on the other data presented in this report. Latest figures The data is provided by calendar year. Between Q1 2015 and Q1 2016 was an increase of 2.7% in the number of start-ups. There was, however, no change between this and the last quarter. Figure 5: Number of business start-ups, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016

Source: Bank Search Please note that data is produced by calendar year.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

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Q3

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Q1

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Table 5: Business start-ups, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change from

previous quarter

% Change from

previous year

Q4 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Q4

Sutton 334 343 108 115 120 343 0.0% 2.7%

Source: Bank Search Please note that data is produced by calendar year.

1f. Net Business Growth Net business growth provides a much more accurate picture of companies’ resilience within the borough, because, unlike business start-ups, it factors in the number of companies which are closing per quarter. Context Net growth monitors the opening and closing of registered companies. There are no definitive seasonal patterns. Data shows that after a significant dip in Q1 2009/10 there has been a continual increase in the net growth of companies, both in Sutton and the UK. Figures provided are for the town of Sutton only comprising postcodes in SM1, SM2 and SM3.

Latest figures In Q4 2014/15 there was a fall in net business growth in Sutton of 37.1% compared to Q4 2013/14. Over the same period there was an increase of 4.8% in the UK. When compared to Q3 2014/15, there was an increase in net growth in Sutton of 18.9% compared to 46.7% for the UK. We have had no update in data from Duport since the Q4 data set of 2014/15. An alternative source data is being prepared for the next report.


15

Figure 6: Net growth (number of opened and closed companies), Q4 2008/09 – Q4 2014/15 (financial year).

Source: Duport Confidence Reports

Table 6: Net company growth in Sutton and UK

2013/14 2014/15 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sutton 59 140 108 70 74 88 18.9% -37.1%

UK 36,396 68,352 55,172 41,744 48,846 71,633 46.7% 4.8%

Source: Duport Confidence Reports

Most recent data: March 2015.

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2a. Economic Activity Rate This provides a picture of how the working age population of Sutton are faring with reduced employment opportunities. Context Economic activity rate measures the proportion of people of working age who are in employment; this includes both people who were not working but looking for work and available to start work within 2 weeks, and full-time students who are economically active. Data is published on a quarterly basis, with each publication covering a year’s data. The rate of economic activity is relatively stable for London and GB; however, it is less stable within Sutton. This can be attributed to the fact that the working age population is smaller in Sutton than London and GB, making the rate more volatile. The rate of economic activity in Sutton has remained above the London and GB averages since Jan 2004. The peak in economic activity in Sutton was July 2013 to June 2014 when it hit 85%. Latest figures The proportion of Sutton’s residents who are economically active has increased by 1.5% in Q4 2015/16 from Q3 2015/16. The change from Q4 2014/15 to Q4 2015/16 is an increase of 0.7%. These increases are above those for London and Great Britain. Figure 7: Rate of economic activity, January 2004 – December 2015

Source: DWP: Nomisweb Note: Percentages are of the working age population.

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London

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2. Benefits & Employment


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Table 7: Rate of economically active residents, Jan 2014 to December 2014 – January 2015 to December 2015.

Jan 14 - Dec 14

Apr 14 - Mar 15

Jun 14 - Jul 15

Oct 14 - Sep 15

Jan 15- Dec 15

% Change

from previous Quarter

% Change from

Previous Year

Sutton 82.1% 80.4% 80.9% 81.5% 82.7% 1.5% 0.7%

London 76.7% 77.0% 77.4% 77.3% 77.7% 0.5% 1.3%

Great Britain 77.3% 77.4% 77.5% 77.5% 77.8% 0.4% 0.6%

Source: DWP: Nomisweb Note: Percentages are of the working age population Most recent data published April 2016.

2b. Numbers claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) JSA is the measure of the number of job seekers who are registered with the Job Centre as looking for work and are entitled to receive JSA. People in receipt of JSA may also be entitled to other benefits like Housing Benefit, Free School Meals etc. which leads to additional costs by the local authority. Context The proportion of residents claiming JSA in Sutton has remained lower than the proportion of JSA claimants in London and GB since January 2006. Whilst this figure is lower in Sutton, the increases and decreases are directly consistent with those for London and GB. The shape of the graph for JSA claimants in Sutton mirrors that of both London and GB because employment and therefore unemployment is effected by the wider economic climate and national trends. Data is available monthly. The numbers claiming JSA have continued to fall since Q4 2012/13. Latest figures Q4 2015/16 saw a 13.7% decrease in the number of claimants compared to Q3 2015/16. In comparison with Q4 2014/15 there was a decrease of 38.9%. Sutton has a lower rate of claimants compared to both London and Great Britain.


18

Figure 8: Percentage of working age population claiming JSA, January 2006 to December 2006 – April 2015 to March 2016

Source: NOMIS

Figure 9: Number of working age population claiming JSA, Q1 2006/07 – Q4 2015/16

Source: NOMIS

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Ap

r14-M

ar1

5

Jul1

4-J

un15

Oct1

4-S

ep15

Jan

15-D

ec1

5

Ap

r15-M

ar1

6

Sutton

London

Great Britain

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Quarterly Average

Rolling MonthlyAverage


19

Table 8: Number and rate of JSA claimants, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/

15 2015/16

% Change

from Previous Quarter

% Change

from previous

year Q4 Avg Q3 Avg Jan Feb Mar Q4 Avg

JSA Claimants

Sutton 1,718 1,217 1,125 1,060 965 1,050 -13.7% -38.9%

% claiming JSA

Sutton 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% -16.7% -40.5%

London 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 3.7% -11.1%

Great Britain

2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 9.8% -6.7%

Source: DWP: Nomisweb Note: Percentages are of the working age population

2c. Job Seeker Allowance (JSA) claimants: 12+ months

Since long term unemployment is considered to be most damaging socially, this is an important indicator as it highlights the proportion of the population who may need more support to re-enter employment. Please Note: these figures are going to become less reliable over time as Universal Credit is rolled out. Though JSA will continue to be recorded as an element of Universal Credit, start dates will be from the start date of Universal Credit and not of JSA so these figures will begin to drop off. Context Similarly to overall JSA claimants, the percentage of residents who claim JSA for 12+ months is always proportionally less in Sutton compared to London and GB. This measure also experiences the same peaks and troughs over time. The number of residents who had been claiming for 12+ months was relatively stable in Sutton between January 2006 and January 2007, but then declined to a low (between 240 and 170) from June 2007 to October 2009. Since that point the number of residents claiming JSA for 12+ months reached a high of 890 in August 2013, but has continued to fall since then. Since January 2014, numbers who are claiming JSA for 12 months or more has been decreasing. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16 there was a continued decrease in the number of JSA claimants that had been claiming for 12+ months. Q4 2015/16 saw this number drop by 28.6% on Q4 2014/15 with an average of 300 people claiming for 12+ months.


20

Figure 10: Number of working age population claiming JSA and claiming JSA for 12+ months, January 2006 – March 2016

Source: DWP: Nomisweb

Table 9: Number and rate of JSA claimants for 12+ months, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/

15 2015/16

% Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4 Avg

Q3 Avg

Jan Feb Mar Q4

Avg

JSA Claimants

420 308 300 305 295 300 -2.6% -28.6%

% working age

population 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -33.3%


2d. Numbers claiming JSA aged 18-24 Young people have been most impacted by the economic down-turn because they often have less professional experience with which to gain employment. Consequently, there has been a great deal of media attention focused on the effects of the recession on young adults.

0

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7

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-08

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8

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r-09

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9

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-10

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Total JSA Claimants

Claimants for 12+ months

Rolling Annual Average JSAClaimants

Rolling Annual Average JSAClaimants for 12+ months


21

Context Children aged 16 and 17 are no longer eligible for JSA, apart from unusual circumstances. Therefore, we have now revised the full series to show only 18 – 24 year olds who are claiming JSA. In January 2006, 4.4% of all 18-24 year olds in Sutton were claiming JSA. This then increased steadily to September 2006 with 665 young people, 4.7%, claiming JSA. This peak was prevalent across London. Since then, numbers have fluctuated. The month with the highest number of claimants was August 2009 with 1,075 (7%). Numbers have steadily fallen since November 2011 to October 2012 when the proportion was 5.3%. In Sutton the greatest proportion of 18-24 year olds claiming JSA for 12+ months was from August 2012 to September 2012 at 1.0%. The proportion of 18-24 year olds claiming JSA has continued to decrease with since that time. Latest figures The number of 18 - 24 year olds claiming JSA reduced by 49.5% between Q4 2014/15 and Q4 2015/16. For Q4 2015/16 the average number of claimants a month was 162. Figure 11: Percentage of 18-24 year olds claiming JSA and claiming JSA for 12+ months, January 2009 – March 2016


0.0%

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Ap

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r13

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Jun13

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r14

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Jun14

Oct1

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Ap

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r15

Jul1

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Jun15

Oct1

4-

Sep15

Jan

15 -

Dec15

Ap

r15 -

Ma

r16

Sutton

Sutton 12+m

London

London 12+m


22

Table 10: Number and rate of JSA claimants aged 18-24, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4 Avg Q3 Avg Jan Feb Mar Q4 Avg

Claimants aged 18 – 24

320 207 180 165 140 162 -21.9% -49.5%

% All 18 - 24 year olds

2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% -24.4% -48.5%


45 35 25 30 25 27 -23.8% -40.7%

% of all 18 -24 year old claimants

0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -33.3%


2e. Numbers claiming JSA aged 25-49

Context Residents aged 25-49 represent the largest group claiming JSA. As with other JSA indicators the peaks and troughs are similar to those of London and GB and therefore influenced by national trends. The proportion claiming for 12+ months has ranged from 0.3% in 2006 to 0.7% in June 2012. Numbers have continued to fall since January 2015. Latest figures The average number of claimants of JSA in this age group for Q4 2015/16 has reduced by 42.9% since Q4 2014/15. Q4 2015/16 has also seen a reduction in the number of claimants claiming for 12+ months, with an average number of monthly claimants of 153, the lowest level since July 2012.


23

Figure 12: Number of 25-49 year olds claiming JSA and claiming JSA for 12+ months, January 2006 – March 2016


Table 11: Number and rate of JSA claimants aged 25-49, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change from

previous year


Claimants aged 25 –

49 983 660 600 560 525 562 -14.9% -42.9%

% All 25 - 49 year olds

1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% -11.1% -38.5%


247 165 155 155 150 153 -7.1% -37.9%

% of all 25 - 49 year old claimants

25.1% 25.0% 25.8% 27.7% 28.6% 27.3% 9.2% 8.8%


0

500

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-12

No

v-1

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3Se

p-1

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ov-

13

Jan

-14

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-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-1

5M

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5Se

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5N

ov-

15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

Total Claimants Claimants for 12+months

Rolling Annual Average Rolling Annual Average 12+months


24

2f. Numbers claiming JSA aged 50 + Socially and economically it is important for this group to be able to access paid employment. Trends however, show that this group is increasingly becoming unemployed. Loss of employment can lead to major financial stresses, loss of savings, increased risk of mortgage arrears, and reduction in pension payments, all of which can represent a financial burden to the authority. Context As with the other age groups, the proportion of claimants of JSA aged 50 + has followed the same peaks and troughs as London and GB. The number of 50 + Sutton residents claiming JSA has remained high since the period July 2011 to June 2012. Since April 2013 numbers have continued to reduce. Please note that as of Q3 this indicator has been recorded by the DWP as JSA claimants aged 50+ rather than 50 to 64. This change reflects changes to the retirement age. Latest figures The number of JSA claimants aged 50 + has continued to decrease with a reduction in Q4 2015/16 of 21.1% compared to Q4 2014/15. However, the proportion of 50+ claimants who have claimed for over 12 months has increased between Q3 2015/16 and Q4 2015/16 by 2.6%.

Figure 13: Number of 50 + claiming JSA and claiming JSA for 12+ months, January 2006 – March 2016


0

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ep-0

7N

ov-0

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-08

Ma

r-08

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y-0

8Jul-0

8S

ep-0

8N

ov-0

8Jan

-09

Ma

r-09

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9Jul-0

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ep-0

9N

ov-0

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-10

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r-10

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y-1

0Jul-1

0S

ep-1

0N

ov-1

0Jan

-11

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11

Ma

y-1

1Jul-1

1S

ep-1

1N

ov-1

1Jan

-12

Ma

r-12

Ma

y-1

2Jul-1

2S

ep-1

2N

ov-1

2Jan

-13

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3Jul-1

3S

ep-1

3N

ov-1

3Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jul-1

4S

ep-1

4N

ov-1

4Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5Jul-1

5S

ep-1

5N

ov-1

5Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Total Claimants

Claimants for 12+months

Rolling Average

Rolling Average 12+months


25

Table 12: Number and rate of JSA claimants aged 50 +, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year


Claimants aged 50+ 412 347 345 335 295 325 -6.3% -21.1%

% of all aged 50 + 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% -3.3% -19.4%


137 117 120 120 120 120 2.6% -12.4%

% of all aged 50 + claimants

33.2% 33.7% 34.8% 35.8% 40.7% 37.1% 10.1% 11.7%


2g. Numbers claiming Employment & Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefit This indicator provides an insight into one of the more vulnerable resident groups of Sutton. Context Since 2000 there has been an upward trend in the number of residents claiming Incapacity Benefit (IB) and/or Employment Support Allowance (ESA). Proportionally, however, levels have remained relatively stable. In April 2013 IB was replaced with ESA. ESA is only for new claims; those receiving IB will continue to receive it. Since August 2014, numbers have slowly decreased overall. This measure is only available quarterly as a rolling annual average, with data being reported every February, May, August and November. The latest available data covers the period up to May 2015. Latest figures There has been a slight decrease in the numbers claiming ESA and IB in August 2015 when compared to May 2015 of 1.9%. The percentage of working age population claiming has reduced to 4.2% throughout 2015.


26

Figure 14: Number and rate of ESA and IB claimants, May 2000 to August 2015.

Source: DWP: Nomisweb August 2015 is the latest data available

Table 13: Number and rate of ESA and IB claimants, February 2015 – August 2015

Feb 2015

May 2015

Aug 2015

% Change from previous

Quarter

% Change from previous

year

Claimants Sutton 5,410 5,370 5,270 -1.9% -2.6%

% of working age

population

Sutton 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% -2.4% -2.4%

London 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% -1.9% -3.6%

Great Britain 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Source: DWP: Nomisweb August 2015 is the latest data available

2h. Numbers claiming Lone Parent Benefit

Evidence indicates that parental unemployment has links to a child’s subsequent unemployment. It is therefore of economic importance to ensure this group is able to access the support required to enter paid employment.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Ma

y-0

0A

ug-0

0N

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ay-0

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ay-0

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ov-0

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ay-0

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ug-0

8N

ov-0

8F

eb-0

9M

ay-0

9A

ug-0

9N

ov-0

9F

eb-1

0M

ay-1

0A

ug-1

0N

ov-1

0F

eb-1

1M

ay-1

1A

ug-1

1N

ov-1

1F

eb-1

2M

ay-1

2A

ug-1

2N

ov-1

2F

eb-1

3M

ay-1

3A

ug-1

3N

ov-1

3F

eb-1

4M

ay-1

4A

ug-1

4N

ov-1

4F

eb-1

5M

ay-1

5A

ug-1

5

Perc

enta

ge o

f R

esid

ents

To

tal C

laim

ants

Rolling Average of Total Claimants

Rolling Average of Resident Proportion


27

Context Between February 2006 and May 2013, there was a downward trend in the number claiming lone parent benefit. In May 2012, changes were introduced to make it easier for lone parents to return to work. The most significant change was that parents moved onto JSA once their child reached the age of 5, rather than 7. Numbers have steadily declined since February 2009. This measure is only available quarterly as a rolling annual average, with data being reported every February, May, August and November. The latest available data covers the period up to May 2015. Latest figures The number of lone parents continues to decline steadily, with a fall of 3.3% between May 2015 and November 2015. The proportion of Lone Parent Benefit claimants in the working age population also continues to decline and is now below 1% of the working population. Figure 15: Percentage of claimants on lone parent benefit, November 2007 to Aug 2015

Source: DWP: Nomisweb August 2015 is the latest data available Table 14: Number and rate of claimants of lone parent benefits, November 2014 – August 2015

Feb 2015

May 2015

Aug 2015

% Change from

Previous Quarter

% Change from

previous year

Claimants Sutton 1,270 1,230 1,190 -3.3% -6.3%

% of working age

population

Sutton 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% -10.0% -10.0%

London 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% -8.3%

Great Britain 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%

August 2015 is the latest data available

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Nov-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Au

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8

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Fe

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1

Ma

y-1

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1

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1

Fe

b-1

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Ma

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Au

g-1

2

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2

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

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3

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

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4

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Sutton

London


28

2i. Number of active claimants and new claims of Housing Benefit (HB) 2j. Council Tax Reduction and new claims The number of Housing Benefit claimants is a good indicator of the Sutton economy, because it reveals the number of residents who are economically less stable/resilient to changes. The number of Council Tax Reduction claims reveals the numbers of residents who require assistance paying their council tax. Context Up until April 2013, the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) operated Council Tax Benefit (CTB) as a centralised benefit. However in April 2013, this was replaced by Council Tax Reduction (CTR). There is no longer a centralised DWP benefit, but locally set rate reductions. Certain groups are protected, for example pensioners, but others will be expected to pay a greater proportion of their council tax. Prior to April 2013, HB and CTB were reported together. However, since the introduction of CTR it is not possible to report on combined HB and CTR due to double counting, therefore HB and CTR are monitored as separate indicators. Since November 2014, the number of HB claimants has reduced. The number of active CTR claimants reduced significantly in June 2013, two months after its introduction. This reduction has steadily continued since that time. Latest figures There has been a decrease in active claimants of HB claimants in Q4 2015/16 of 7.1% when compared to Q4 2014/15. The number of new HB claimants has decreased by 27.5% when compared to Q3 2015/16. In Q4 2015/16 there has been a decrease in new claimants of CTR of 10.9% when compared to Q4 2014/15. The number of active CTR claimants has reduced by 9.6% when compared to Q4 2014/15.


29

Figure 16: Number of active and new claimants of HB and CTR, April 2013 – March 2016

Source: LB Sutton. Revenues and Benefits

Table 15: Number of active and new claimants of HB, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

HB

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year


Active Claimants

12,809 12,208 12,060 11,921 11,700 11,894 -2.6% -7.1%

New Claims

277 234 209 140 160 170 -27.5% -38.7%

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and Benefits Table 16: Number of active and new claimants of CTR, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

CTR

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year


Active Claimants

12,603 11,626 11,492 11,401 11,283 11,392 -2.0% -9.6%

New Claims

276 280 280 229 229 246 -12.1% -10.9%

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and Benefits Introduced in April 2013

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Num

ber

of new

cla

imants

Num

ber

of active c

laim

ants

HB Active

CTR Active

HB New

CTR New


30

2k. Number defaulting on Council Tax payments The number of people unable to pay their council tax will have a direct impact on the income of the authority. More generally though, this measure reflects the economic resilience of Sutton residents. If residents are defaulting on council tax this may well reflect an increasing level of debt. Context Council tax defaults are based on the number of households that have received a summons for late payment. The delivery of a summons is dependent on the scheduling/timetabling of court dates, as there must be a certain number of weeks between delivery and the date of the summons. The number of summons issued in a month can therefore be influenced by the number of working days within a month. There are also a number of specific seasonal variations: in March there is not normally a summons run; in May and June, there is the first summons run of the year, which normally has a high count, creating a steep peak in Q1; and there are usually less summons’ in December over the Christmas period, which often creates a spike in January. The monthly profile of households defaulting on Council Tax payments is therefore erratic; however, reporting this indicator as a quarterly rolling annual average smoothed out these short-term seasonal fluctuations and highlights longer-term trends. The number defaulting in Q1 2015/16 was particularly high with 1062 people defaulting. Latest figures No summonses were made in March 2016. This affects the quarterly figures. The total number of households defaulting on council tax payments has seen a decrease between Q4 2014/15 and Q4 2015/16 of 4.7%.


31

Figure 17: Number of residents defaulting on council tax payments, Q1 2007/08 – Q4 2015/16

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and benefits Note: Defaulting is defined as issuing a liability order or summons to a household

Table 17: Number of residents defaulting on council tax, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year


Residents Defaulting

679 146 1,320 622 0 647 343.4% -4.7%

Source: LB Sutton: Revenues and benefits Note: Defaulting is defined as issuing a liability order or summons to a household

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3/1

4

Q4-1

3/1

4

Q1-1

4/1

5

Q2-1

4/1

5

Q3-1

4/1

5

Q4-1

4/1

5

Q1-1

5/1

6

Q2-1

5/1

6

Q3-1

5/1

6

Q4-1

5/1

6

Quarterly Average



32

3a. Average price of house sales Context Apart from an expected dip in house prices in 2008, house prices have continued to increase in Sutton since 1995. The price of detached houses has increased at an above average rate, thus creating a greater gap between the average price of a detached house and all other property types. Latest figures House prices of all types of property have continued to increase in Sutton. The average price increase between Q3 2015/16 and Q4 2015/16 was 3.9%. Between Q4 2014/15 and Q4 2015/16 the increase was 12.6%. Figure 18: Average house price by type, rolling annual average January 2005 –March 2016

Source: Land registry Latest Data March 2016

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Jan

05-D

ec0

5M

ar0

5-F

eb06

Ma

y05-A

pr0

6Jul0

5-J

un06

Se

p05-A

ug06

Nov05-O

ct0

6Jan

06-D

ec0

6M

ar0

6-F

eb07

Ma

y06-A

pr0

7Jul0

6-J

un07

Se

p06-A

ug07

Nov06-O

ct0

7Jan

07-D

ec0

7M

ar0

7-F

eb08

Ma

y07-A

pr0

8Jul0

7-J

un08

Se

p07-A

ug08

Nov07-O

ct0

8Jan

08-D

ec0

8M

ar0

8-F

eb09

Ma

y08-A

pr0

9Jul0

8-J

un09

Se

p08-A

ug09

Nov08-O

ct0

9Jan

09-D

ec0

9M

ar0

9-F

eb10

Ma

y09-A

pr1

0Jul0

9-J

un10

Se

p09-A

ug10

Nov09-O

ct1

0Jan

10-D

ec1

0M

ar1

0-F

eb11

Ma

y10-A

pr1

1Jul1

0-J

un11

Se

p10-A

ug11

Nov10-O

ct1

1Jan

11-D

ec1

1M

ar1

1-F

eb12

Ma

y11-A

pr1

2Jul1

1-J

un12

Se

p11-A

ug12

Nov11-O

ct1

2Jan

12-D

ec1

2M

ar1

2-F

eb13

May12-A

pr1

3Jul1

2-J

un13

Se

p12-A

ug13

Nov12-O

ct1

3Jan

13-D

ec1

3M

ar1

3-F

eb14

Ma

y13-A

pr1

4July

13-J

une

14

Se

p13-A

ug14

Nov13-O

ct1

4Jan

14-D

ec1

4M

ar1

4-F

eb15

Ma

y14-A

pr1

5July

14-J

une

15

Se

p14-A

ug15

Nov14-O

ct1

5Jan

15-D

ec1

5M

ar1

5-F

eb16

Detached

Semi Detached

Terraced

Flat

3. Housing


33

Table 18: Average house price by type, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 Change from

previous quarter

Change from

previous year


Detached 673,153 730,079 749,776 761,037 763,802 758,205 3.9% 12.6%

Semi 390,643 423,679 435,109 441,644 443,279 440,011 3.9% 12.6%

Terraced 303,573 329,245 338,127 343,206 344,453 341,929 3.9% 12.6%

Flat 227,445 246,679 253,334 257,139 258,073 256,182 3.9% 12.6%

Source: Land registry

3b. Local Housing Allowance (LHA) Rates When presented alongside a regional comparison of market value rental, this measure can reflect how those receiving housing allowance may be disadvantaged by where they are able to live. Context The majority of Sutton is located within the Outer South London region for LHA rates; only a portion of Worcester Park is situated within the Outer South West London region. From April 2013 annual increases in LHA rates used to calculate Housing Benefit for customers in the private rented sector were restricted to equivalent increases in the Consumer Price Index. The change is intended to exert a downward pressure on rents, restricting increases in LHA rates to CPI inflation. Latest figures The Rent Officers (Housing Benefit and Universal Credit Functions) (Local Housing Allowance Amendments) Order 2015 SI 2015/1753 provides that LHA rates will remain at the April 2015 levels (or be set at the 30th percentile point for local market rents, if this is lower). In the Summer Budget 2015 (para 1.137) the Chancellor announced that these rates will be frozen from 2016/17 to 2019/20. Rates for both the Outer South London and Outer South West London areas remain the same as last year.


http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2015/1753/made

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2015/1753/made

34

Table 19: LHA rates, April 2015 - April 2016

Outer South London Outer South West London

April 2015

April 2016

Change from

previous year

April 2015

April 2016

Change from

previous year

Shared £82.46 £82.46 0.0% £84.91 £84.91 0.0%

1 bed £167.22 £167.22 0.0% £209.77 £209.77 0.0%

2 bed £210.57 £210.57 0.0% £280.60 £280.60 0.0%

3 bed £279.14 £279.14 0.0% £336.96 £336.96 0.0%

4 bed £344.38 £344.38 0.0% £417.02 £417.02 0.0%

5 bed £344.38 £344.38 0.0% £417.02 £417.02 0.0%

Source: www.directgov.co.uk Note: Prices are fixed annually from April

3c. Number of Placements in Emergency Accommodation 3d. Net Cost of Emergency Accommodation The Housing (Homeless Persons) Act 1977 placed a duty on local housing authorities to secure permanent accommodation for unintentionally homeless people in priority need. The number of people identified by the council as in priority need can be impacted upon by economic conditions and also demand for affordable housing within the borough. Context The three main reasons for homelessness are: termination of assured short hold tenancy, parents no longer willing to accommodate, and relationship breakdown with a non-violent partner. When a family is placed into emergency accommodation, they agree to pay charges for the provision of that accommodation. Since October 2015 the number of placements seems to be going down month on month. Latest figures The number of placements for Q4 2015/16 has increased by 5.1% from Q3 2015/16. The net cost of Emergency Accommodation has increased by 89% from Q4 2014/15 to Q4 2015/16.


35

Figure 19: Total Number of Placements in Emergency Accommodation, April 2012 – March 2016

Table: Placements in Emergency Accommodation, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4

Total Q3

Total Jan Feb Mar

Q4 Total

Number of Placements

115 99 36 34 34 104 5.1% -9.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r-12

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan

-13

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun

-13

Jul-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

Th

ou

san

ds

Total Number of Placements



36

Figure 20: Net Cost of Emergency Accommodation including B&Bs, April 2012 – March 2016

Table 20: Net Cost of Emergency Accommodation including B&Bs, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q4

Total Q3

Total Jan Feb Mar

Q4 Total

Cost of Placements

£106,979 £140,049 £70,840 £77,230 £55,131 £203,201 45.1% 89.9%

Source: Homlessness Watch Report

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000A

pr-

12

Ma

y-1

2Jun

-12

Jul-1

2A

ug-1

2S

ep-1

2O

ct-

12

Nov-1

2D

ec-1

2Jan

-13

Fe

b-1

3M

ar-

13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-1

3A

ug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-1

4A

ug-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5Jun

-15

Jul-1

5A

ug-1

5S

ep-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6M

ar-

16

Total Cost

Rolling Average Cost


37

4a. Number of minor planning applications received 4b. Number of major planning applications received A minor planning application refers to all small scale developments that require planning permission. These can include residential or commercial extensions or conversions. A major planning application refers to all large scale developments. These include residential developments of 10 or more units, or commercial developments over 1,000ft. The number of applications received implies a desire to invest in Sutton. The figures are reported here a quarter in arrears.

Context The number of minor and major planning applications received appears to have no clear seasonal pattern. The number of minor applications has been increasing since Q2 2014/15. Major applications have dropped since Q1 2015/16. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16 there were 106 minor planning applications. This was an increase of 2.9% when compared to Q4 2014/15. There were 21 major planning applications received, an increase of 200% when compared to Q4 2014/15.

Figure 21: Number of minor planning applications received, Q2 2009/10 – Q4 2015/16

Source: LB Sutton Development Control

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Minor

Rolling Average

4. Planning


38

Figure 22: Number of major planning applications received, Q2 2009/10 – Q4 2015/16


Table 21: Number of minor and major planning applications received, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

2014/15 2015/16 % Change from

previous quarter

% Change

from previous

year

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Minor applications received

103 122 133 118 106 -10.2% 2.9%

Major applications received

7 14 13 10 21 110.0% 200.0%


4c. Number of residential units approved through minor and major planning permissions 4d. Non-residential Sq. ft. approved through minor and major planning permissions

A minor planning application refers to all small scale developments that require planning permission. These can include residential or commercial extensions or conversions. A major planning application refers to all large scale developments. These include residential developments of 10 or more units, or commercial developments over 1,000 sq. ft. There is a time lag between applications received and permissions approved. Approved planning applications will not result in completion, but are more likely to; they are also monitored for the units or space they may yield, as well as start and completion. Context The net gain from minor planning applications for residential units seems to be more stable in comparison to the number of major residential applications approved; larger major planning

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Major

Rolling Average


39

applications of 100 plus units are generally more sporadic due to the time required to put together an application as well as the availability of land for development. The net gain of commercial floor space is even more erratic. Negative net gain suggests renewal of areas and the creation of alternative land use; a corresponding positive gain in residential units would indicate that planning permissions were intending to create residential units in these areas. The number of major and minor planning applications approved appears to have no seasonality. Figures quoted are a quarter out from the financial year cycle. Latest figures The latest data available is for Q3 2015/16. The trend has fluctuated throughout the year though Q3 2015/16 has seen a large increase on the number of planning applications for major and minor residential units. The change from Q3 2014/15 to Q3 2015/16 is 162.5% for minor residential units and 248% for major residential units.. Figure 23: Number of residential units approved through major and minor planning applications, Q3 2013/14 – Q3 2015/16

Source: LB Sutton Development Control Q3 2015/16 is the most recent data available.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q3 1

3/1

4

Q4 1

3/1

4

Q1 1

4/1

5

Q2 1

4/1

5

Q3 1

4/1

5

Q4 1

4/1

5

Q1 1

5/1

6

Q2 1

5/1

6

Q3 1

5/1

6

Major Residential

Minor Residential


40

Figure 24: Sq. ft. of non-residential land approved through major and minor planning applications, Q3 2013/14 – Q3 2015/16

Source: LB Sutton Development Control Q3 2015/16 is the most recent data available. Table 22: Net gain of residential units and non-residential floor space from minor and major planning applications approved, Q2 2013/14 – Q2 2014/15

Net dwelling units / Net commercial Sq.

Ft

2014/15 2015/16 % Change


% Change

from previous

year

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Approved minor residential units

72 90 64 32 84 162.5% 16.7%

Approved major residential units

168 218 119 86 300 248.8% 78.6%

Approved minor non-residential Sq. ft.

-1394 -1134 -460 3 244 N/A N/A

Approved major non-residential sq. ft.

-7993 -7230 -8754 -3037 -7052 N/A N/A


-40000

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000Q

3 1

3/1

4

Q4 1

3/1

4

Q1 1

4/1

5

Q2 1

4/1

5

Q3 1

4/1

5

Q4 1

4/1

5

Q1 1

5/1

6

Q2 1

5/1

6

Q3 1

5/1

6

Minor Non-Residential PlanningApplications

Major Non-Residential PlanningApplications


41

5a. Children’s Centres reach Children’s centres are well positioned to help parents and carers who may suffer economic hardship. Their ability to reach out and provide services to vulnerable groups can work towards improving their and their child’s life chances. These services include health checks, literacy and numeracy help (for parent/carers and children) and assisting parent/carers into employment. Context Children’s centres have a number of target groups which they aim to engage through a variety of services. Of those target groups, the groups who are most vulnerable to economic hardship are teen parents, lone parents and children of workless households. The term “Workless Households” refers to there being at least one person in the household who was recorded as claiming out of work benefits. Data on the number of families registered with Children’s Centres and the number of sessions/events attended, referred to as “reach” is gathered on a year to date basis. Because registrations can happen without a parent/carer visiting a centre, reach provides a clearer picture of service/events accessed. Reach for these target groups is compared against an estimated baseline taken from either previous registrations or from DWP data. As at April 2014, the recording of activities that constitute reach has changed to cover activities by Children’s Centres that previously had not been recorded. Figures are produced by quarter on a year-to-date basis. This means that the figures are collated by quarter for all quarters that financial year. The proportion of teenage mothers reached in 2013/14 was almost 90 per cent; the proportion of Lone Parents and Children in Workless Households reached was around 50 per cent; and the reach to Workless Households was a bit lower, at just over 42 per cent. All three showed an increase since the previous year; the proportion of teenage mothers was almost 2 percentage points higher than in 2012/13, the proportion of Lone Parents and Children in Workless Households reached was around 4 percentage points higher, and the reach to Workless Households was around 5 percentage points higher. 2014/15 saw the proportion of teenage mothers reached at 111%, Lone Parents at 72% and Children in Workless Households at 40%. The baseline for Teenage Mothers is based on the number of registrations the previous year. This would suggest that there were more Teenage Mothers in Sutton in 2014/15 when compared to 2013/14 and that is why it is possible for the reach to exceed 100%. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16 the percentage of teenage mothers reached by children’s centres was 13.6% higher than in Q4 2014/15. The baselines for Teenage Mothers are based on the number registered the previous year. In Q4 2015/16 the proportion of lone parents reached has seen a decrease of 16.3% from Q4 2014/15. In Q4 2015/16 the proportion of workless households reached has seen a decrease from Q4 2014/15 of 24.6%.



42

Figure 25: Percentage reach of target groups by children’s centres, Q1 2012/13 – Q4 2015/16

Source: LB Sutton:

Table 23: Proportion of teenage and lone parents and children from workless households reached by Children’s Centres, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

Target Group

2014/2015 2015/16 %

Change from

Previous Quarter

% Change

from Previous

Year

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Teen 110.9% 92.3% 129.5% 160.3% 182.1% 13.6% 64.2%

Lone 71.7% 31.5% 45.2% 52.7% 60.0% 32.7% -16.3%

Workless 39.8% 14.3% 21.0% 26.1% 30.0% 42.9% -24.6%

Source: LB Sutton: All data is collected on a Year to Date basis.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Q12012/13

Q22012/13

Q32012/13

Q42012/13

Q12013/14

Q22013/14

Q32013/14

Q42013/14

Q12014/15

Q22014/15

Q32014/15

Q42014/15

Q12015/16

Q22015/16

Q32015/16

Q42015/16

Teenage Parents

Lone Parents

Workless Households


43

5b, 5c, 5d. Percentage of children receiving free school meals (FSM) This is a good indicator of the life chances for the children of Sutton. It not only adds to the narrative of those on benefits, but also indicates how the economic downturn is directly affecting children and their access to an equal education.

Context Data is provided termly through the School Census and shows the number of children who are registered in a school as being entitled to FSM. The school is then able to use this data to claim the Pupil Premium. However, not all families who are entitled to FSM claim it. From September 2014, all pupils in Key Stage 1 (ages 4 to 7 in Reception, Year 1 and Year 2) became entitled to a free meal at school, irrespective of their FSM status. This appears to have a negative impact on the number of pupils who are registering their entitlement to Free School Meals. Numbers of Primary pupils were in decline from 2012. Take up in special schools has been increasing since 2008. Latest figures In primary schools, between January 2015 and January 2016 there has been a decrease of 0.5% in the number of children claiming FSM. In secondary schools there has been a decrease of 9.5%. Children attending special schools are most likely to be eligible for FSM, with 43.6% of children in a special school being eligible for FSM in January 2016. This was a decrease on January 2015 of 12.3% Figure 26: Yearly average percentages of Sutton pupils registered for FSM, 2007 - 2016

Source: LB Sutton

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Primary

Secondary

Special


44

Table 24: Proportion of Sutton pupils registered for FSM, January 2015 – January 2016

Academic Year 2014/15

Academic Year 2015/16

% Change


% Change

from Previous

Year Jan

2015 May 2015

Oct 2015

Jan 2016

Primary Pupils

11.6% 12.2% 11.1% 11.5% 3.6% -0.5%

Secondary Pupils

8.6% 8.6% 8.0% 7.8% -3.2% -9.5%

Special School Pupils

49.7% 53.2% 52.9% 43.6% -17.6% -12.3%

Source: LB Sutton: School Census


45

6a, 6b, 6c, 6d, 6e & 6f. Enquiries The Citizens’ Advice Bureau is a charity that provides information and advice on a variety of issues to anyone who lives or works in Sutton. In recent years the service has been affected by funding cuts and volunteer numbers, therefore total count is not necessarily a measure of demand for CAB, but is more likely to represent the number of clients who have been able to access the service. Context The different measures represent different types of enquiry as a proportion of the total number of enquiries. Most types of enquiry have remained proportionally very similar since Q1 2009/10, with the exception of welfare benefit enquiries which in 2009/10 accounted for an average of 13%; this has steadily increased to now account for, on average, over 20% of all enquiries. The total number of enquires a quarter has decreased since Q2 2013/14. It should be noted that enquiry type is based on the primary ‘issue’ mentioned during initial contact; enquirers may have more than one, but these are not measured. Latest figures In Q4 2015/16, the highest proportion of identified enquiries dealt with by the CAB was Welfare Benefits at 34.3%. The next highest was Housing at 21.7% and Debt Advice at 16.5%. The number of enquiries received by CAB when compared to Q4 2014/15 has decreased by 17.2%. The total number of enquiries increased by 10.6% between Q3 2015/16 and Q4 2015/16. Figure 27: Proportion of CAB enquiries, Q4 2009/10 – Q4 2015/16

Source: Sutton CAB

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Debt advice enquiries

Employment enquiries

Relationship breakdown enquiries

Housing enquiries

Welfare benefit enquiries

Council tax debt queries

6. Sutton Citizen’s Advice Bureaux (CAB)


46

Table 25: Total number of CAB enquiries and proportion by type, Q4 2014/15 – Q4 2015/16

Source: Sutton CAB

2014/2015

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Total 2603 2005 2125 1950 2156 206 -447 10.6% -17.2%

Debt Advice 15.9% 19.0% 18.8% 18.2% 16.5% 0.0 0.0 -9.3% 3.8%

Employment 9.6% 11.9% 10.9% 11.1% 10.8% 0.0 0.0 -2.7% 12.5%

Family

relationship10.0% 14.7% 14.9% 12.4% 13.5% 0.0 0.0 8.9% 35.0%

Housing 17.0% 22.6% 19.4% 20.8% 21.7% 0.0 0.0 4.3% 27.6%

Welfare

benefit20.1% 29.2% 32.4% 33.1% 34.3% 0.0 0.1 3.6% 70.6%

Council tax

debt2.0% 2.7% 3.6% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 -26.7% 65.0%

% Change

from

Previous

Year

Change

from

Previous

Quarter

Change

from

Previous

Year

% Change

from

Previous

Quarter

2015/16


47

4. Appendix – Data Sources

Section Number Internal Data Source External Data Source

1a, 1b, 1c Revenues and Benefits Department – London Borough of Sutton

1d Successful Sutton – www.successfulsutton.co.uk

Springboard

1e Bank Search – www.banksearch-consultancy.com

1f Duport Confidence Reports – www.duport.co.uk/confidence-reports/

2a, 2b, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f, 2g, 2h

ONS / Nomisweb - https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

2i, 2j, 2k Revenues and Benefits Department – London Borough of Sutton

3a Land Registry – www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales

3b Revenues and Benefits Department – London Borough of Sutton

www.directgov.co.uk

3c & 3d Homelessness Watch Report - Property Management Team – London Borough of Sutton

4a, 4b, 4c, 4d Strategic Planning / Environment and Neighborhoods – London Borough of Sutton

5a, 5b, 5c, 5d Policy and Customers Services – London Borough of Sutton

6a, 6b, 6c, 6d, 6e, 6f Citizen’s Advice Bureau


http://www.successfulsutton.co.uk/

http://www.banksearch-consultancy.com/

http://www.banksearch-consultancy.com/

http://www.duport.co.uk/confidence-reports/

http://www.duport.co.uk/confidence-reports/

https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales

http://www.directgov.co.uk/

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economy watch - moderngov.sutton.gov.uk · 2015/16 and 38.9% fewer than q4 2014/15. the average...

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