economics $2008 vaughn nelson cost of energy$0.06-0.08/kwh landowner$4,000-6,000/mw/yr land removed...
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ECONOMICS $2008Vaughn Nelson
Cost of Energy $0.06-0.08/kWh
Landowner $4,000-6,000/MW/yrLand removed from production 1-3 acres per turbine, primarily roads
Construction jobs/100 MW 100
O&M Jobs/100 MW 10-14
Renewable Energy Credits $3/MWh
Carbon trading ? $20/metric ton/yr
Green pricing $0.03/kWh
INCENTIVESRegulations Federal: PURPA 1978,
open transmission 1997
Production Tax Credit (PTC) $0.21/kWh1985, $0.015/kWh for 10 years (inflation factor), extended a number of times, now through 2011
Green pricing; ~$3 per block of 100 kWh
Tax breaks; PILOT, payment in lieu of taxesTX: Renewable Energy Credits (1 REC = 1 MWh) Utilities must acquire % of sales, 08 values ~ $53
INCENTIVESDatabase of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (www.dbsireusa.com)
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)TX, 1999; 900 MW by 2003: 2005; 5,880 MW by 2015 (500 MW from other renewables) plus goal of 10,000 MW by 2025 (will surpass in 2010)
NM: RPS, investor utilities, 20% (wind 4%) by 2020, wind; rural coops, 10% by 2020
OK: RPS, none
04/10/23
LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY
COE = (FCR * ICC) + LRC + AOM
AEP
COE = LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY, $/kWh or $/MWh
FCR = FIXED CHARGE RATE, per year
ICC = INITIAL CAPITAL COST, $
LRC = LEVELIZED REPLACEMENT COST, $/yr
AEP = NET ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTION, per/yr
AOM = ANNUAL OPERATION & MAINTENANCE, $/yr
PERCENT ICCTurbine 74-82
Foundation 1-6
Electric 2-9
Connection to grid 2-9
Finance 1-5
Land 1-3
Roads 1-5
Consultants 1-3
WIND FARMS, COST OF ENERGY
04/10/23
COE EXAMPLE50 MW WIND FARM, 1 MW TURBINESFCR = 8% = 0.08ICC = $2,000/kW = $2,000,000LRC = $15,000AOM = $0.01/kWh availability elevationAEP = 2,700,000 98% 1000 mCOE = (0.08 * 2,000,000) + 15,000 + 27,000
2,700,000COE = $0.065 / kWh
04/10/23 AEI
WIND FARM EXAMPLE50 MW WIND FARM, IC = $100,000,000
AEP = 50 * 2.7 *106 = 1.35*108 kWh/yr$.025-.03/kWh, with PTC $.045-.05/kWh Project Income $6-6.5 million/yr Land Owner royalty on $3-4 million/yr
4% = $120,000 - 160,000/yr$4,000-6,000/MW/yr = $200,000 - 300,000/yr
3,000 acres, 5 X 10 D spacing, Land removed from production 2 acres/turbine
@ $4,000/turbine = $2,000/acre/yr
ESTIMATED ANNUAL ENERGY
AEP = CF*GS*8760
CF = Capacity factor (0.30-0.45)
GS = Generator rated power
8760 = # hours in year
AEP = 0.35 * 1000 kW * 8760 hr/yr
= 3,060,000 kWh/yr
Then adjust for elevation and availabilityAEP = 0.9*0.98*3,000,000 = 2,700,000 kWh/yr
CAPACITY FACTOR = AVG POWER/RATED POWER
CALCULATED ANNUAL ENERGYSpeed Power Hours Energy m/s kW kWh
1-4 0 1051 0
5 34 868 29,538
6 103 914 94,060
7 193 904 174,381
11 748 531 396,855
14 1000 234 233,943
20 1000 40 39,540
SUM 8760 3,060,545
04/10/23 AEI
WIND FARM EXAMPLE
SPACING, based on terrain and prevailing wind direction
Plains, row 3 - 5 D, row-row 8 -10 D
Mesa, row 1.5 - 2 D, 1-3 rows
General, row 2 - 5, row-row 5 - 7 D D = rotor diameter
Land removed from production, 1 to 5 %
1-2 acres/turbine in plains
Satellite view, part of Sweetwater Wind Farm
Aerial view, White Deer Wind Farm, yellow lines, 1 sq mile
WIND FARM SALESFixed $0.025-0.035/kWh or $25-35/MWh
Market (time of day?), Fuel CostsPrice of natural gas at Henry Hub
FERC (quarterly reports, MWh, $); have to know official wind farm name.
http://eqrdds.ferc.gov/eqr2/frame-summary-report.asp
To calculate capacity factor, need wind farm capacity, MW; time period.
EXAMPLE INCOMEGreen Mountain Holdings, Lamar, CO
162 MW, 2008 by quarter
# $1,000 1,000 MWh $/MWh
1 4,333 131 33.00
2 4,415 134 33.00
3 4,726 130 36.36
4 5,347 147 36.36
$18,821,000
INSTITUTIONALNOISE, VISUAL, ENVIRONMENTAL
(birds, bats, habitat)
15% in favor, 10% opposed, rest neutral
$$$$ Landowner
maximum - medium - none
RURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTBIG BUCKS, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20,000 MW, Installed cost ~ $40 BB
O&M 2,000 – 3,000 jobs