Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author) Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report. The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker. This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability. Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FCA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.

Economics | October 16 2015

Week Ahead

Current Last Week Last month Last year October 15 October 8 September 15 October 15 2014

Cash Rate (%) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50

90 day bills (%) 2.16 2.18 2.18 2.71

10 year bonds (%) 2.58 2.64 2.69 3.68

AUD/USD 0.7318 0.7173 0.7114 0.8721

Gold ( US$/ounce) 1187.50 1144.30 1102.60 1244.80

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne) 53.20 54.80 56.40 82.20

Oil ( US$/barrel) 46.38 49.38 44.59 81.78

All Ordinaries 5265.6 5241.4 5046.6 5238.0

Australia

Date Event Consensus Last release

Tuesday October 20 Reserve Bank Board minutes ~ ~

Tuesday October 20 Business Sales Index (September) ~ ~

Tuesday October 20 Imports of goods (September) ~ ~

Thursday October 22 Detailed jobs data (October) ~ ~

Thursday October 22 Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey ~ ~

International

Date Event Consensus Last release

Monday October 19 Chinese economic data ~ ~

Monday October 19 US NAHB index (October) 62 62

Tuesday October 20 US Housing starts (September) 1.4% -3.0%

Thursday October 22 US Monthly home prices (August) 0.5% 0.6%

Thursday October 22 US Existing home sales (September) 0.9% -4.8%

Thursday October 22 US Leading index (September) 0.0% 0.1%

Friday October 23 “Flash” manufacturing surveys ~ ~

A quiet week lies ahead in terms of Australian economic data. The focus is very much overseas with Chinese economic growth figures due in China on Monday.

The week kicks off in Australia on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank releases minutes of the Board meeting held a fortnight earlier. The Reserve Bank Board left interest rates unchanged for the fifth month and there were scant changes made to the accompanying statement. So it would be surprising if the Board minutes provided much in the way of new information.

Also on Tuesday CommBank releases its latest indicator of economy-wide sales (Business Sales Indicator) while the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases data on the imports of goods (merchandise imports). Given these figures are for the September month, they are one of the timeliest indicators of economic activity. The main complication is that the weaker Aussie dollar may inflate the estimates of imports, via higher prices.

On Thursday the ABS releases the detailed labour market figures for September. While data on employment by industry won’t be available (the quarterly figures were released last month) there are break-ups on a demographic and regional basis.

Economic Insights