Savanth Sebastian, Economist (Author) Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report. The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker. This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability. Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FCA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.

Economics | October 9 2015

Week Ahead

Current Last Week Last month Last year October 8 October 1 September 8 October 8 2014

Cash Rate (%) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50

90 day bills (%) 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.70

10 year bonds (%) 2.64 2.61 2.68 3.31

AUD/USD 0.7173 0.7055 0.6953 0.8769

Gold ( US$/ounce) 1144.30 1113.70 1121.00 1225.30

Iron Ore ( US$/tonne) 54.80 54.50 56.40 79.50

Oil ( US$/barrel) 49.38 44.74 45.94 85.77

All Ordinaries 5241.4 5144.1 5133.5 5241.6

Australia

Date Event Consensus Last release

Monday October 12 Lending finance (August) 0.1%

Monday October 12 Credit & debit card lending (August) ~ ~

Tuesday October 13 Speech by Deputy Governor Philip Lowe ~ ~

Tuesday October 13 NAB Business survey (September) ~ ~

Wednesday October 14 Consumer confidence (October) ~ 93.9

Wednesday October 14 Building activity (June quarter) 5% ~

Thursday October 15 Employment report (September) 5,000 / 6.2% 5,000 / 6.2%

Thursday October 15 New car sales (September) ~ -1.6%

Friday October 16 Financial Stability Review ~ ~

International

Date Event Consensus Last release

Tuesday October 13 China Trade balance (September) $48.2bn $60.2bn

Wednesday October 14 China inflation (September) 1.8% 2%

Wednesday October 14 US Producer prices (September) (MoM/YoY) -0.2% / -0.8% 0.0% / -0.8%

Wednesday October 14 US Retail sales (September) 0.2% 0.2%

Thursday October 15 US Consumer prices (September) (MoM/YoY) -0.2% / -0.1% -0.1% / 0.2%

Friday October 16 US Industrial production (September) -0.2% -0.4%

A full schedule of domestic economic data awaits, with key indicators scheduled on each day in the coming week. Overseas, there are top shelf indicators for release in both China and the US over the week.

On Tuesday National Australia Bank releases the September business survey. As the Reserve Bank Governor is fond of stressing, business conditions and confidence levels are actually close to normal – in contrast to the media-driven perception that sentiment and activity are soft.

On Thursday the ABS releases the monthly job figures. Despite seemingly soft economic growth rates, the job market has been quite resilient. We expect that employment may have lifted by just 5,000 in September after strong gains in previous months while the jobless rate may have held steady at 6.2 per cent. Also on Thursday the ABS will confirm that car sales were at record highs in September. And on Friday, the Reserve Bank will hand down the bi-annual Financial Stability Review with most interest in comments on the housing sector

Economic Insights