economic update ltm (june 2012)
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Leadership Team Meeting
Chicago, IL.
June 28, 2012
Annual Existing Home Sales:A Tough, Flat 4 years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
7.086.52
5.02
4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26
In million units
Homeownership Rate at 65.4%(Lowest in 15 years)
1965 - Q1 1971 - Q1 1977 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1995 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2007 - Q158
60
62
64
66
68
70%
Owner-Occupancy Sales Falling(All-Cash deals hiding the current dysfunctional mortgage market)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000 In thousands
QRM rulesRaising g-fees to fund non-housing issuesBanks hoarding cash! … from regulatory uncertainties and lawsuits?
Despite Second Home Sales Recovery
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
5001000150020002500300035004000
InvestmentVacation
In thousands
Buy a condo for your college student
53% of REALTOR® members own a residential investment property29% own a commercial property19% own a vacation home
2012 First Quarter Sales: Strongest in 5 years
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
20082009201020112012
Monthly Pending Home Sales IndexPoint to Strongest Second Quarter in 5 years
2007 - Jan
2007 - Apr
2007 - Jul
2007 - Oct
2008 - Jan
2008 - Apr
2008 - Jul
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - July
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012-Apr
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Homebuyer Tax Credit
Source: NAR
Year-over-Year Change in Pending Contracts:Up for 12 straight months
2010 - May
2010 - Jul
2010 - Sep
2010 - Nov
2011 - Jan
2011 - Mar
2011 - May
2011 - Jul
2011 - Sep
2011 - Nov
2012 - Jan
2012 - Mar
2012 - Apr
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
% change from one year ago
Improving Factors for Higher Sales in 2012:
1. High Affordability2. Growing Economy and Job Creation 3. Solid stock market recovery from 20084. Rising rents and a larger pool of qualified renters5. Pent-up release of Household Formation
• Rising demand for ownership and rentals as young-adults move out of parent’s basement
6. Smart money chasing real estate (i.e., investors)7. Consumer confidence in buying an appreciating
asset
Best Affordability Conditions
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Economy out of Recession and GrowingGDP growth for 11 straight quarters
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q4
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q2
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q4
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q2
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q2
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Corporate Profits … Sky High
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q4
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q2
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q4
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q2
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q2
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q1
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500$ billion
Residential Investment Spending Growth
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q4
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q2
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q4
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q2
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q2
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q1
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30Home Buyer Tax Credit
Total U.S. Payroll Jobs Increasing
2000 - Jan 2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2007 - Jan 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr124000
126000
128000
130000
132000
134000
136000
138000
140000
8 million job losses
4 millionjob gains
In thousandsIn thousands
Total Payroll Jobs(Recovered half of jobs lost a few years ago, but still down by 10 million compared to
long-term projections)
1970 - Jan1971 - M
ar1972 - M
ay1973 - Jul1974 - Sep1975 - N
ov1977 - Jan1978 - M
ar1979 - M
ay1980 - Jul1981 - Sep1982 - N
ov1984 - Jan1985 - M
ar1986 - M
ay1987 - Jul1988 - Sep1989 - N
ov1991 - Jan1992 - M
ar1993 - M
ay1994 - Jul1995 - Sep1996 - N
ov1998 - Jan1999 - M
ar2000 - M
ay2001 - Jul2002 - Sep2003 - N
ov2005 - Jan2006 - M
ar2007 - M
ay2008 - Jul2009 - Sep2010 - N
ov2012 - Jan
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150In millions Mind
theGAP
Rent Growth (Component from Consumer Price Index)
2000 - Jan 2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2007 - Jan 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
% change from one year ago
Visible Inventory of Homes(6-year low for Existing Homes and 50-year low for New Homes)
2000 - Jan 2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2007 - Jan 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Existing NewSource: NAR, Census
Shadow Inventory(Seriously Delinquent: 90+ days late or in foreclosure process)
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q4
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q2
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q4
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q2
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q2
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
U.S.
In millions
Housing Starts(Well Below 50-year average of 1.5 million each year)
2000 - Jan 2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2007 - Jan 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
multifamily single-familyThousand units (annualized)
Long-term Average
Source: Census, HUD
Latest Home Price Trend in early 2012(Lagging Indicator … reflects price negotiations from late 2011)
• NAR: Up in more than half of local markets
• FHFA: Up in deep-middle America, New England, South Atlantic, Mountain states
• Case-Shiller: Up in Charlotte, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa, Washington D.C.
• LPS and Core Logic: many markets with price gains
Equity and Underwater HomeownersPositive Equity Homeowners
Negative Equity Homeowners
Early 2012 About 65 million
Of which 25 million have no mortgages
11 to 12 million
After 5% price appreciation
67 million 9 million
After 10% price appreciation
69 million 7 million
Source: Census, Federal Reserve, CoreLogic, NAR estimates
Wealth Distribution(Federal Reserve data on median net worth, with 2011 NAR estimate)
Renter Owner$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
19982001200420072011 estimate
Data Source for Median Net Worth: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate for 2011
Producer Price Inflationary Pressure … Diminishing
2000 - Jan 2001 - Oct 2003 - Jul 2005 - Apr 2007 - Jan 2008 - Oct 2010 - Jul 2012 - Apr
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Finished Intermediate%
Consumer Price Inflation(Above Fed’s preferred 2% core inflation rate)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 forecast
2013 forecast
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rent All Items Core%
Prepare for Early Move (2014) by Federal Reserve
20052006
20072008
20092010
2011
2012 foreca
st
2013 foreca
st
2014 foreca
st01234567
Fed Funds 30-year Mortgage%
Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit
2000 - Jan 2001 - Dec 2003 - Nov 2005 - Oct 2007 - Sep 2009 - Aug 2011 - Jul
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
$ million; 12-month Total
Housing Forecast2011History
2012Forecast
2013Forecast
Existing Home Sales 4.26 million 4.6 to 4.7 million 4.8 to 5.0 million
New Home Sales 304,000 400,000 500,000 to 600,000
Housing Starts 610,000 770,000 1 million
Existing Home Price(Growth)
$166,100(-3.9%)
$170,100(+2.4%)
$177,300(+4.2%)
GDP Growth +1.8% +2.3% +3.1%
Payroll Job Gains +1.7 million +1.8 million +2.5 million
Fed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
30-yr Mortgage 4.7% 4.0% 4.5%
Risks to Forecast
• Washington Policy– QRM 20% down payment requirement?– Other Dodd-Frank rules? Help or Hurt?– Trim mortgage interest deduction?– Capital gains tax on home sale?
– Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013 … if no new compromised budget, then:
• Automatic deep cuts to military and domestic spending• Automatic higher taxes• 3% shaved off GDP
Commercial Real Estate
Source: Real Capital Analytics, 4Q 2011.
Big Transactions Coming Back$2.5 million property and above
13
REALTOR® Business Deals(Majority are less than $1 million)
Method of Finance
Underwriting Standards?
Multifamily Fundamentals
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0Completions Net Absorption Vacancy
Source: NAR/REIS
Office Fundamentals
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-150,000,000
-100,000,000
-50,000,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0Completions Net Absorption Vacancy
Source: NAR/REIS
Commercial Market ForecastOFFICE 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy Rate 16.6% 16.3% 15.9%Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 20,178 31,700 53,000
Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 11,659 25,474 37,847Rent Growth 1.4% 1.7% 2.4%
INDUSTRIAL 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy Rate 12.4% 11.9% 11.1%Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 61,957 41,249 59,855
Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 20,462 26,947 54,881Rent Growth -0.5% 1.8% 2.3%
RETAIL 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy Rate 12.9% 12.2% 11.0%Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 1,238 13,547 23,330
Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 4,207 12,677 19,878Rent Growth -0.2% 0.7% 1.4%
MULTI-FAMILY 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy Rate 5.4% 4.6% 4.5%Net Absorption (Units) 238,398 126,621 102,687
Completions (Units) 38,014 88,839 93,706Rent Growth 2.5% 3.5% 3.8%
International Home Buyers
Sales to International Buyers Up By 24 Percent on Yearly Basis
Twenty Seven Percent of Realtors® Reported Working with an International Client
Twelve Months Ending March 2012
32%
26%
23%
28% 28% 27%
20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perc
enta
ge o
f Res
pond
ents
Realtors® with International Clients
Residents from Most Countries Have Some Participation in U.S. Residential MarketMajor Purchasers Listed Below
International Buyers Are Throughout the U.S.But Concentrated in a Few States
Arizona California Florida Georgia Nevada New York Texas
2007 5% 16% 10% 2% 2% 4% 8%
2008 5% 11% 9% 3% 2% 4% 7%
2009 7% 13% 23% 1% 1% 2% 11%
2010 11% 12% 22% 5% 3% 4% 8%
2011 6% 12% 31% 2% 2% 3% 9%
2012 7% 11% 26% 4% 2% 4% 7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percent of International Sales by State
International PurchasersCash for Majority of Purchases
28%
43%46%
55%62% 62%
69%
54% 52%
44%36% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Type of Financing
All cash With mortgage financing