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Italcementi Group Strategic Plan – Economic Studies Economic Profile in ITC Group Countries –

April, 8th 2014 1

Economic profile in

ITC Group countries

April, 8th 2014

GSP - Economic Studies


April, 8th 2014

Contents

Real indicators

Financial indicators

United States

Canada

France

Belgium

Italy

Spain

Greece

Bulgaria

Egypt

Morocco

India

Thailand

Kazakhstan

Country highlights

Global economic conditions

Legenda

Overall country assessment

Latest short-term forecasts

Overview

N.B: Hyperlinks work only in presentation mode


April, 8th 2014 3

Legenda

Key to Abbreviations ann annualised

ar annual rate

avg average

bn billion

ch change

d day

GVA gross value added

lhs left hand side

m month

ma moving average

mn million

mom month-on-month

nsa not seasonally adjusted

o/n overnight

pa per annum

Q quarter

rhs right hand side

sa seasonally adjusted

saar seasonally adjusted at annual rate

tn trillion

wda working days adjusted

y year

yoy year-on-year

Based on information up to April, 8th 2014

Available in i.like


April, 8th 2014

Stable Worsening Softening Slight improvement Improvement

4

Overall country assessment

US: despite a softer start of the year the economy

is gathering pace

Developed

countries

France: uncertainty surrounding economic

prospects as fiscal/competitiveness imbalances

are still unresolved

Belgium: moderate recovery on track driven by

both domestic and external components

Italy: improving real economy expectations are

easing financial tensions

Greece: the worst may be over though a full-blown

recovery is still not in sight

Spain: recovering financial and real fundamentals

(to start with competitivenss) are driving the

country out of the woods

Bulgaria: slightly better prospects ahead mainly

thanks to stronger European demand

Emerging

countries

Egypt: the economy is displaying continuing

resilience despite a still uncertain political scenario

Morocco: a more normal harvest should be

compensated by accelerating non-agriculture

activity

India: moderate improvement in sight depending on

expected new effective policy making

Kazakhstan: overall positive prospects are partially

clouded by disruption in oil production

Thailand: political turmoil is significantly affecting

activity levels and darkening short-term prospects

Canada: the economy is set to loose some

momentum although a weaker CAD$ should lift

exports


April, 8th 2014 5

Latest short-term forecasts

GDP Inflation GDP Inflation

US 2.9 1.8 2.7(1)

1.7(1)

Canada 2.3 1.6 2.2(1)

1.5(1)

Euro area 1.1 1.0 1.1(1)

1.0(1)

France 0.8 1.1 0.9(1)

1.1(1)

Belgium 1.0 1.3 1.2(1)

1.1(1)

Italy 0.6 1.0 0.5(1)

0.9(1)

Spain 0.8 0.7 0.8(1)

0.4(1)

Greece 0.0 -0.5 0.0(1)

-1.0(1)

Bulgaria 1.6 0.5 1.6(1)

1.1(1)

Egypt 2.5 10.0 2.7(1,fy)

10.0(1,fy)

Morocco 4.0 3.0 4.2(3)

2.9(3)

Thailand 2.5 2.0 2.8(2)

2.4(2)

India 5.0 8.5 4.7(2,fy)

9.7(2,fy)

Kazakhstan 5.5 6.0 6.0(1)

6.6(3)

ITC Group countries: real GDP and inflation forecasts

(% change)

(March '14)

Latest ITC outlook Other sources

(March '14)

(1) Consensus Bloomberg, March 2014 ; (2) Consensus Forecasts, March 2014 ; (3) Global Insight,

March 2014; "fy": fiscal year data beginning April 1st for India, ending June 30th for Egypt


April, 8th 2014 6

Real indicators

Leading and coincident indicators signal that economic conditions are

improving in advanced economies while increasingly differentiated trends

are prevailing among emerging markets. In particular, as for the Group

major emerging ones, subdued growth is presently affecting Egypt, India,

and Thailand

In the euro area, as fiscal consolidation is on track, the focus is gradually

shifting towards growth prospects given unacceptably high unemployment

levels. There is widespread consensus that the economic momentum will

strengthen in the months ahead

Inflation is at extremely low levels in the euro area also in those countries

where activity is more buoyant. This is not helping the competitiveness

adjustment in countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece. Price dynamics are

also moderating in most emerging countries of the Group

Commodity prices are generally displaying a subdued trend with the

exception of food and natural gas, led by unfavorable weather for crops and

political tensions over Ukraine

2011 2012 2013

GDP OECD 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.0 Q4

US 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.6 Q4

Euro area 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.5 Q4

Japan -0.4 1.4 1.6 2.7 Q4

Inflation US 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.1 Feb

Euro area 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.5 Mar

Current account balance US -3.0 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 Q4

(% GDP, cumulated 12m) Euro area 0.1 1.4 2.3 2.3 Q4

Japan 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 Q4

Oil Price Level (Brent, $/barrel) 111.0 112.0 108.8 107.9 Mar

(yoy % ch) 39.4 0.9 -2.9 -1.6

yoy % ch (unless otherwise indicated) Latest

* latest four quarters


April, 8th 2014 7

Real indicators


April, 8th 2014 8

Real indicators

Sources: Bloomberg, Economist, IMF, OECD, PACE


April, 8th 2014 9


While financial conditions in advanced economies have sensibly improved,

tensions have surfaced in recent months in the emerging markets

Very loose monetary policies in the major industrial countries coupled with

reduced worries on the stability of the euro area and more upbeat

economic expectations have resulted in strong stock markets gains,

extremely low levels of interest rates and a dramatic reduction in long-term

interest rate differentials versus the German benchmark

US 10y government yields have instead risen on the back of the gradual

unfolding of the tapering of quantitative easing

Emerging economies have suffered losses on stock markets and

significant currency depreciation given the change in market sentiment

whereas investors have been leaving these countries to widen their

positions in mature economies. In turn, the euro has continued to remain

strong given that large inflows of funds – also coming from outside the area

- have returned also on sovereigns issued by peripheral countries of the

euro area

2011 2012 2013

1.392 1.285 1.328 1.370 *

US (federal funds target) 0.0/0.25 0.0/0.25 0.0/0.25 0.0/0.25 16/12/08

Euro area (repo) 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.25 13/11/13

US 2.78 1.80 2.36 2.72 Mar

Euro area 3.15 2.20 1.96 1.84 Mar

US (NYSE) 8.7 1.9 17.8 0.1 7/4/2014

Euro area (EuroStoxx) -6.1 -7.6 15.8 2.5 7/4/2014

Latest

* average year-to-date

Dollar/Euro exchange rate

Policy rates (end of period)

Stock markets

10-years government bond yields


April, 8th 2014 10



April, 8th 2014 11



April, 8th 2014 12

United States

Particularly adverse winter weather in the first months of the year coupled

with the expiration of unemployment benefits for the long-term

unemployed, and inventory corrections have somewhat dented the good

economic momentum which had emerged over the past year

However, this should be an only temporary effect as the US economy’s

fundamentals remain broadly favourable. Notably, the job market is slowly

but steadily tightening with short-term unemployment falling and wage

dynamics regaining steam

The fiscal drag is set to moderate over the year. Most importantly, the past

two years uncertainty climate which had surrounded Washington’s policy-

making has subsided thanks to the recent budget and debt ceiling deals

Real indicators* 2011 2012 2013

GDP 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.6 Q4

Industrial production 4.0 3.6 2.6 0.6 Feb**

Construction investment -1.7 7.4 3.9 1.8 Q4

Consumer prices*** 3.2 2.1 1.5 1.1 Feb

Producer prices – finished goods*** 6.1 1.9 1.2 1.3 Feb

Hourly earnings – manufacturing*** 2.0 1.7 0.7 1.5 Mar

Standardised unemployment rate (%) 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.7 Mar

Current account balance (US$bn) -457.7 -440.4 -379.3 -379.3 Q4°

as a percentage of GDP -3.0 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3

Real effective exchange rate index§ 95.4 98.2 99.5 99.1 Feb


Short-term interest rate pa (Eurodollar 3m) 0.41 0.42 0.28 0.23 Mar

Long-term interest rate pa (benchmark 10y) 2.78 1.80 2.36 2.72 Mar

Stock exchange (S&P 500) index (% ch)* 11.2 8.8 19.2 -0.2 7/4/14**

Latest

* % yoy ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest four quarters; § 2010=100

* Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/13


April, 8th 2014 13

United States

Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, OECD


April, 8th 2014 14

Canada

The Canadian economy accelerated over the past year progressively

mainly driven by exports which in turn reflect strengthening economic

growth south of the border and strong inventory accumulation

Inflation, which has been so far subdued, may come under upward

pressure given the significant slippage of the CAD$ in recent months. This

has been the (expected) result of unfavourable fundamentals such as a

relatively large current account deficit, low interest rates, and an almost

flat outlook for commodity prices

Looking ahead some softening may be in the cards due to a struggling

manufacturing sector, inventory drawdown, and the much delayed need

for households to deleverage, although the weak loonie (CAD$) may lift

further exports


GDP 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 Q4

Industrial production 3.9 0.9 1.5 1.4 Jan

Construction investment 3.9 5.8 1.0 -0.5 Q4

Consumer prices*** 2.9 1.5 0.9 1.1 Feb

Producer prices – manufacturing*** 6.9 1.1 0.4 2.3 Feb

Hourly earnings – manufacturing*** 3.3 2.9 -0.2 -2.6 Jan

Unemployment rate (%) 7.4 7.3 7.1 6.9 Mar

Current account balance (Can$bn) -52.3 -67.1 -60.1 -60.7 Q4°




Short-term interest rate pa (o/n) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Mar


Stock exchange (TSE) index (% ch)* 7.3 -6.6 5.4 4.8 7/4/14**

Latest




April, 8th 2014 15

Canada

Sources: Bloomberg, OECD


April, 8th 2014 16

France

The economy returned to growth in Q4 13 thanks to an acceleration in

private consumption which was, however, partly driven by temporary

factors (i.e. households bringing forward their purchases in anticipation of

an increase in the VAT on last January, 1st)

Most economic indicators point to an ongoing muted recovery. Confidence

among consumers and businesses has been improving over the past

months but remains still relatively depressed and volatile while industrial

production gains have been so far modest

High unemployment, fallen levels of competitiveness of French enterprises,

relatively unfavourable credit conditions, and tight fiscal policy are

hampering a full-blown recovery. Notably, budget measures for this year

are more tilted towards spending cuts, but also significant tax increases

have to be taken into account and further tightening may be in the pipeline


GDP (wda) 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 Q4

Industrial production 2.3 -2.7 -0.6 -0.3 Jan**

Construction investment 1.4 -0.9 -2.5 -1.4 Q4

Consumer prices - harmonised index*** 2.3 2.2 1.0 1.1 Feb

Producer prices - manufactured goods*** 5.2 2.0 -0.1 -1.5 Feb

Hourly earnings - manufacturing (ouvriers)*** 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.6 Q4

Standardised unemployment rate (%) 9.6 10.2 10.8 10.4 Feb

Current account balance (€bn) -35.2 -44.4 -33.2 -33.2 Q4°




Short-term interest rate pa (Euribor 3m) 1.39 0.57 0.22 0.31 Mar


Stock exchange (CAC) index (% ch)* -4.3 -6.7 18.1 3.3 7/4/14**

Latest




April, 8th 2014 17

France



April, 8th 2014 18

Belgium

Stronger than expected household consumption, recovering investment and

good export performance helped lift GDP in the second part of last year

providing 2014 with a positive carry-over and ending almost two years of

stagnation

Industrial production is recovering as are confidence levels and very low

inflation is keeping wage dynamics at bay. The lowering of VAT on

household electricity consumption (starting from April) should add further

downward pressure

Despite continuing fiscal consolidation, the mix of measures taken (from

increases in excise duties, expenditure cuts, a fiscal amnesty, efforts to

reduce the cost of labour, among others) will result in a broadly stable

deficit to GDP ratio this year compared to 2013 (at around 2.6%)


GDP (wda) 1.8 -0.1 0.2 1.0 Q4

Industrial production 4.4 -3.4 0.8 -0.6 Jan**

Construction (GVA) 8.1 1.0 -1.6 0.4 Q4


Producer prices - manufacturing*** 6.8 2.9 -0.2 -2.4 Feb

Hourly earnings - industry*** 2.8 3.1 2.8 1.2 Q4


Current account balance (€bn) -4.1 -7.3 -6.0 -6.0 Q4°






Stock exchange (BEL20) index (% ch)* -5.5 -5.3 17.7 7.0 7/4/14**

Latest

* % yoy ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q4 included; § 2010=100



April, 8th 2014 19

Belgium



April, 8th 2014 20

Italy

GDP eked out a tiny 0.1% qoq in the last quarter of 2013 pointing to a halt in

a nine-quarter-long recession and to a moderate recovery ahead. Consumer

and business confidence have steadily improved over the past year and

industrial production, particularly export oriented, is improving

Tight credit conditions, high unemployment, and continuing fiscal austerity

are weighing down on the nascent recovery. Record low yields are,

however, helping rein in the fiscal deficit while attempts are being made to

lower the tax burden and the government is committed to keep repaying

overdue arrears to the private sector

Inflation has trended down markedly displaying an exceptionally low, if not

hardly visible, pass-through effect of last October 1% hike in VAT. Overall

price dynamics remain subdued owing to weak demand, a strong euro,

limited labour cost pressures, and a large output gap


GDP (wda) 0.4 -2.4 -1.9 -0.9 Q4

Industrial production 1.3 -6.4 -3.0 1.0 Jan**

Construction investment -3.7 -6.1 -6.7 -6.0 Q4


Producer prices - manufacturing*** 4.9 1.9 0.0 -0.9 Feb

Hourly earnings - manufacturing*** 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 Jan


Current account balance (€bn) -48.3 -8.4 12.1 12.1 Q4°

as a percentage of GDP -3.1 -0.5 0.6 0.6





Stock exchange (FSTE MIB) index (% ch)* -11.5 -19.1 13.5 15.9 7/4/14**

Latest




April, 8th 2014 21

Italy

Sources: Bloomberg OECD


April, 8th 2014 22

Spain

Beating expectations, Spain returned to positive quarterly GDP growth

since Q3 13 with both private consumption and investment finally

recovering mildly while exports continued to drive the economy

The improving economic climate is also visible in steadily recovering

confidence, positive figures in industrial activity and some relaxation of

financial conditions (reflected in falling sovereign yields)

On the downside, the unemployment rate is still painfully high - although it

has somewhat retreated in recent months - , credit conditions remain tight,

fiscal austerity keeps biting, while the heavy debt load calls for further

deleveraging

Nevertheless, Spain is not expected to request further financial EU

assistance, via the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), after it has

successfully exited the EU backed bank aid programme late last year


GDP (wda) 0.1 -1.6 -1.2 -0.2 Q4

Industrial production -1.6 -6.9 -1.7 0.2 Jan**

Construction investment -10.9 -9.7 -9.5 -8.5 Q4


Producer prices - manufacturing*** 6.5 2.7 0.0 -2.4 Feb

Hourly earnings - manufacturing*** 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.0 Q4

Standardised unemployment rate (%) 21.7 25.0 26.4 25.8 Jan







Stock exchange (MSE) index (% ch)* -9.8 -20.9 14.6 7.2 7/4/14**

Latest




April, 8th 2014 23

Spain



April, 8th 2014 24

Greece

Over the past year the recession has softened steadily also thanks to a

strong revival in tourism since last year spring. While credit conditions and

the fiscal stance remain tight and unemployment is at record highs recent

data signal that a turnaround may be in the pipeline

Confidence indicators have trended upwards since last summer particularly

in the manufacturing sector which bodes well for future activity levels. In

addition, the repayment of government arrears and faster absorption of EIB

and EU funds (mainly aimed at large infrastructure projects) should help

alleviate liquidity constraints and support investment

Widespread price deflation is good news for competitiveness while it is also

a great risk as it pushes real interest rates and the debt burden higher

On the fiscal front, preliminary estimates show that a general government

primary surplus in 2013 has been reached for the first time in 10 years


GDP*** -7.1 -7.0 -3.9 -2.3 Q4

Industrial production -8.4 -3.7 -3.6 0.1 Jan**

Construction investment*** -21.0 -22.7 -17.9 -14.8 Q4

Consumer prices - harmonised index*** 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -0.9 Feb


Standardised unemployment rate (%) 17.7 24.3 27.3 27.5 Dec







Stock exchange (ASE) index (% ch)* -31.8 -38.8 40.9 12.6 7/4/14**

Latest




April, 8th 2014 25

Greece



April, 8th 2014 26

Bulgaria

Albeit the economy remains weak there are some signs of improvement.

Both private consumption and investment activity have slightly accelerated

in H2 13 while export performance has been buoyant throughout the past

year despite the subdued European environment. Also industrial activity is

somewhat improving together with confidence levels and retail sales

Continued austerity in government spending coupled with slow credit

expansion and high unemployment are, however, hampering the unwinding

of a robust recovery

Inflation has turned negative signalling persistent weak demand but also a

temporary effect of last year rollback of energy tariffs for consumers

introduced in July 2012 and reduced last July in the wake of mass protests

A strong bull trend has emerged over the past four months in the stock

market, up around 30%, reflecting increased risk appetite


GDP (wda) 1.8 0.6 0.9 1.2 Q4

Industrial production 5.9 -0.2 0.2 1.5 Jan**

Construction (GVA) -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 -0.4 Q4

Consumer prices - harmonised index*** 3.4 2.4 0.4 -2.1 Feb



Current account balance (€bn) 0.2 -0.5 0.8 0.8 Q4°

as a percentage of GDP 0.4 -1.3 2.0 2.0



Short-term interest rate pa (Sofibor 3m) 2.86 1.63 0.76 0.56 Mar


Stock exchange (SOFIX) index (% ch)* -0.3 -19.6 36.4 25.3 7/4/14**

Latest



http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ag1zTTkKS6s/Tf7I078J1yI/AAAAAAAAM3Q/jlhAEO2mrFc/s1600/bulgaria+flag+map.png


April, 8th 2014 27

Bulgaria

Sources: Bloomberg, NSI, National Bank of Bulgaria

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April, 8th 2014 28

Egypt

Political instability continues to hurt the economy, particularly the tourist

sector. Only thanks to substantial amount of financial help from Gulf

countries GDP is not contracting. However, Egypt is yet to receive

5US$bn of the total promised 18US$bn aid package

Complimentary free oil supplies from Gulf countries (worth US$4bn)

helped contain the trade deficit. In the light of the poor balance of payment

fundamentals and of continued forex shortages the need to resume talks

with the IMF appears unavoidable while an overvalued pound may be

subject to a depreciation

As foreign investors seem to favour the return of a military-backed rule the

stock exchange staged an impressive rally since last July (the CASE index

surged by almost 90% from the peak-low in early July). Most recently,

however, a downward correction is occurring on profit taking


GDP -0.8 3.2 1.2 1.3 Q4

Construction (GVA) -2.9 6.5 5.7 3.5 Q4

Consumer prices 10.2 7.0 9.4 9.8 Feb

Producer prices 14.7 2.5 3.4 8.7 Jan

Unemployment rate (%) 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.4 Q4

Current account balance (US$bn) -7.8 -9.8 -3.3 -3.3 Q4




Short-term interest rate pa (overnight) 9.0 9.7 9.5 8.3 Mar

Short-term interest rate pa (3m T-bill) 11.8 13.6 12.3 10.2 Mar

Stock exchange (CASE) index (% ch)* -26.1 2.0 11.3 11.0 7/4/14**

Latest

* % yoy ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; national account data are shown on a solar year basis after transforming the

original fiscal year data; ° latest four quarters; § 2000=100



April, 8th 2014 29

Egypt

Sources: Bloomberg, Central Bank of Egypt


April, 8th 2014 30

Morocco

A strong rebound in agriculture last year more than compensated a weak

performance in mining and construction as well as disappointing demand in

the euro area leading to healthy GDP growth. However, a more normal

agriculture season will weigh down on growth this year although the gradual

recovery in European countries should spur tourism, remittances and

exports

Earlier this year, the government has slashed subsidies significantly on fuel

oil, gasoline, and diesel, in an attempt to rein in its cash-strapped finances

amid popular discontent with the stated objective to index energy prices to

global energy price trends

Despite fuel price increases the Central Bank has remained on hold in its

latest policy committee as inflation is not forecast to accelerate significantly.

In fact, the Bank decided to halve the required reserve ratio to combat the

liquidity shortage in money markets


GDP** 4.7 2.7 4.3 4.5 Q4

Industrial production - manufacturing 2.4 1.3 0.2 2.2 Q4

Construction (GVA) 4.2 2.1 -1.9 3.2 Q4


Producer prices 14.8 4.8 -2.5 -3.4 Feb

Unemployment rate (%) 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.4 Q4



Real effective exchange rate index§ 95.7 93.8 95.6 96.4 Jan


Short-term interest rate pa (interbank) 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 Mar

Stock exchange (MASI) index (% ch)* -0.1 -14.0 -11.9 5.3 7/4/14**


Latest

* % yoy ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ** sa; ° latest four quarters; § 2005=100


April, 8th 2014 31

Morocco

Sources: Bloomberg, Haut Commissariat au Plan


April, 8th 2014 32

Thailand

The latest escalation of political violence is taking a heavy toll on the

economy and threatens to throw the country back into recession. Private

consumption and investment demand have fallen in Q4 13 at rates not

seen since the last financial crisis while industrial activity has been

contracting over the past 11 months

In addition, export performance has remained volatile and tourist arrivals

dropped in recent months. Sinking imports recently led to a surge in the

trade balance which is in turn supporting the baht

To help the ailing economy, also given a tame inflation environment, the

Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate by 25bp last month

The lifting of the emergency decree, replaced by a less severe Internal

Security Act, which should last until the end of April, has given some hope

for a recovery in the tourism sector while propping up the stock exchange


GDP*** 0.1 6.5 2.9 0.4 Q4

Industrial production - manufacturing -8.5 2.2 -3.2 -0.4 Feb

Construction investment -5.3 8.9 0.7 -9.6 Q4

Consumer prices*** 3.8 3.0 2.2 2.1 Mar

Producer prices*** 5.5 1.0 0.3 1.4 Mar

Unemployment rate (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 Feb

Current account balance (US$bn) 8.9 -1.4 -2.8 -2.8 Q4°

as a percentage of GDP 2.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7



Short-term interest rate pa (overnight) 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.0 Mar

Short-term interest rate pa (Bibor 3m) 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 Mar

Stock exchange (SET) index (% ch)* 20.7 17.9 20.9 7.2 7/4/14**


Latest



April, 8th 2014 33

Thailand

Source: Bloomberg


April, 8th 2014 34

India

GDP growth continues to underperform amid subdued industrial activity and

weakening private consumption and investment demand while the reform

momentum has stalled and hopes of a sustained recovery rely mainly on

post-election political developments

The new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has so far succeeded

in reining in the rupee and inflation with three successive policy rate hikes.

As the policy focus may now shift on growth monetary policy should remain

on hold at least until upward inflationary pressures resurface

Despite a weak economic context and an uncertain political scene ahead of

next April-May general election, the stock exchange has been recently

rallying steeply on foreign funds inflows

Consequently, also the rupee has regained some ground after last summer

sharp devaluation albeit remaining still around 7.5% weaker than last June

vis-à-vis the US$


GDP 7.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 Q4

Industrial production 4.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 Jan

Construction (GVA) 9.9 3.0 4.6 0.6 Q4


Wholesale prices 9.5 7.5 6.3 4.7 Feb





Short-term interest rate pa (3m T-bill) 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 Mar

Stock exchange (SENSEX) index (% ch)* -2.4 -0.9 12.0 5.5 7/4/14**


Latest

* % yoy ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; national account data are shown on a solar year basis after transforming the

original fiscal year data; ° latest four quarters; § 2000=100

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SBXK8ObX64I/TghwXDHT1OI/AAAAAAAANDw/CjxG4FrwaGg/s1600/india+flag+map.png


April, 8th 2014 35

India

Source: Bloomberg

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April, 8th 2014 36

Kazakhstan

Growth has been reasonably strong in H2 13, but supply problems in the

Kashagan field is clouding the outlook. Oil extraction in the new field started

last September but was suspended shortly after due to a gas leakage and it

is still not clear when will production resume

The almost 20% devaluation of the tenge last February took most analysts

by surprise for its magnitude. The National Bank of Kazakhstan justified its

move with the need to pre-empt further downward speculation, fuelled also

by a weakening rouble, in addition to the key target of boosting

competitiveness

In the wake of the devaluation, financial risks remain high given the

persistent non-performing loans problem and the still weak banking sector

As a result of the devaluation, inflationary pressures are building up quickly

following a period – about one year – of moderating inflation


GDP 7.5 5.0 6.0 6.8 Q4

Industrial production 3.8 0.5 2.3 -0.6 Feb

Consumer prices 8.4 5.1 5.8 6.2 Mar

Producer prices 27.3 3.8 -0.3 9.1 Mar

Unemployment rate 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 Feb

Current account balance (US$bn) 10.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 Q4°

as a percentage of GDP 5.4 0.3 0.1 0.1



Refinancing rate (end of period) 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Mar

Short-term interest rate pa (interbank 90 days) 1.5 1.9 4.0 6.0 Mar

Stock exchange (KASE) index (% ch)* -9.3 -27.8 -10.7 15.8 7/4/14**


Latest

* % yoy ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ° latest four quarters; § 2010=100


April, 8th 2014 37

Kazakhstan

Sources: Bloomberg, National Bank of Kazakhstan, Statistics of Kazakhstan

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