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Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
Energy Economics Group (EEG)At the Institute of Energy Systems and Electric Drives,
Vienna University of Technology, Lecture 2012/2013Gerhard Faninger
Block 1 and Block 2:State of the Art, Options and Assessment
of Renewable Energy Technologies
Economic Perspectives of Renewable Energy Systems
This lecture provides an overview on future perspectives of Renewable Energy
(RE) Technologies, focussing on economic and policy aspects.
PART 1• Energy, Energy Sources and Energy Forms,
• Transformation of Energy Forms,• Useful Energy and Energy Systems,
•Availability of Energy Sources, • Potential of Renewable Energy Sources,
• Energy Technologies on the Market, • Impacts of Energy Transformation and Consumption
to the Environment, • Energy Policy and Market Penetration of Renewable
Energy Technologies,• Options for Future Energy Systems
ENERGY ?ENERGY ?⇒ The availability of a
physical system to do work in an otherphysical system
What means Energy ?What means Energy ?
2
The Total Energycontained in an projectis identified with its
mass:
E = m * c²
E = m * c²
Energy and EvoluationEnergy and Evoluation
Nuclear FusionNuclear Fusion
(1) Energy cannot becreated or destroyed.
(2) Energy can beconverted in otherforms of Energy
Any form of Energymay be transferred in
an other form.
The forms of Energymay be devided intotwo main groups:
Kinetic and Potential Energy
Forms of Energy are:Radiant Energy
(the energy of electromagnetic radiation),Chemical Energy, Electric Energy,
Magnetic Energy, Mechanical Energy,
Thermal Energy, Nuclear Energy, Mass (E = m*c²)
3
Energy is measured in Joules (J),
Kilowatthours (kWh),Kilocalories
Energy(Energie, Arbeit, Wärme)
kWh, Joule
Power / Capacity(Leistung)
kW
Energy and Power Units
Leistungs- und Energie-Einheiten
• Die Einheit der Leistung ist W.
• Die Einheit von Energie (Arbeit) ist Wh bzw. Joule.1 Wh = 3.600 Joule
1 GWh = 3,6 TJ
Auch das Öläquivalent wird als Energieeinheit herangezogen:
1 toe: Tonne Öläquivalent = 41,858 GJ 1 GWh = 3,6 TJ = 0,000086 Mtoe (8,6*10-5)
ENERGIE: EinheitenENERGIE: Einheiten EnergieEnergie-- und und LeistungseinheitenLeistungseinheitenKilo: k = 103 , Mega: = M = 106 , Giga: = G = 109 ,Tera: = T = 1012, Peta: = P = 1015 , Exa: = E = 1018
GW: Gigawatt, GWh: GigawattstundeMW: Megawatt, MWh: Megawattstunde
kW: Kilowatt, kWh: KilowattstundeTJ: Terajoule (1012 Joules)
1 GWh = 3,6 TJ = 0,000086 Mtoe (8,6*10-5)1 TJ = 0,2778 GWh = 0,00002388 Mtoe (2,388*10-5)
1 Mtoe = 41868 TJ = 0,041868 EJ1 TJ = 10-6 EJ
1 TWh = 103 GWh = 3,6*103 TJ = 3,6*10-3 EJ1 GWa = 8.760 GWh = 31,536 TJ
1 SKE (Steinkohleneinheit) = 29,3 MJ1 toe : Tonne Öläquivalent = 41,858 GJ = 107 kcal
Brutto-Energieaufkommen /Total Primary Energy Supply : TPES
From where comes ourEnergy Sources ? Energy Sources on EARTH
are the result of an Interaction between
SUN & EARTH with
The Primary Energy „Solar Energy“
Solar Energy & Energy SourcesSolar Energy & Energy Sources
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Primary-Energy SUN
Solar Energy from SUN
Geothermal Energy Ocean Energy Nuclear Fusion
The Energy Sources of EARTHThe Energy Sources of EARTH
Nuclear Fission
Fossil Energy Sources:Coal, Oil, Gas
Fossil Energy Sources:Coal, Oil, Gas
Nuclear Energy Sources:Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion (?)
Nuclear Energy Sources:Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion (?)
Renewable Energy Sources:Bio-Energy, Hydropower, Solar Energy,
Wind Energy, Geothermal Energy, Tide Energy, Ocean Energy
Renewable Energy Sources:Bio-Energy, Hydropower, Solar Energy,
Wind Energy, Geothermal Energy, Tide Energy, Ocean Energy
What are Renewables ?What are Renewables ?
Renewable Sources of Energy Renewable Energy is energy that is
derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly at a rate equal to or greater then the rate of consumption.
In its various forms, Renewables derives directly or indirectly from the sun, or from
heat generated deep within the earth.
Included in the definition, Renewables are generated from
solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower and ocean resources,
and bio fuels and hydrogen derived from renewable resources.
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Commercial markets for Renewables are today:
Hydropower, Bioenergy, Solar Heating and Cooling,
Solar Thermal Power Plants, Photovoltaic, Wind Energy and
Geothermal Energy.
Renewable Energy Comes in Many FormsRenewable Energy Comes in Many Forms• HEAT from
Solarthermal, Geothermal and Bioenergy
• ELECTRICITY from Solarelectric (PV), Hydropower, Bioenergy, Geothermal, and Ocean Energy
• Bio-SPRIT and HYDROGEN, produced by Renewables
“Renewable” does not mean inexhaustible.
Furthermore the harnessing of Renewables, like all else, relies on
material resources which are finite and non-renewable. In other words they
have their limits and so do their environmental consequences.
Do we need Energy ?Do we need Energy ?
Energy is the base for Life and Survive
ENERGY ? For Life and SurviveENERGY ? For Life and SurviveENERGY is part of the evolution
of our Planet EARTH With Solar Energy and Carbon Dioxide
in the atmosphere and Water on theEarth - Hydro Carbons are produced, which are used as food for man and
animals - as base of Life and Survive.
Energy Production byPhotosynthesis
PhotosynthesisCnHmOn
Solar EnergyCarbon Dioxide
Water Mineral Sources
Useful Energy• For Heat,
• Electricity,• Mobility:
Produced from Energy Sources
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Fuel (Primary Energy)Fuel (Primary Energy)
End-EnergyEnd-Energy
Useful-EnergyUseful-Energy
Energy-ServiceIncluding Energy-Efficiency
Energy-ServiceIncluding Energy-Efficiency
Oil, Coal, Gas, Bio-Energy, Gasoline
Oil, Coal, Gas, Bio-Energy, Gasoline
Heat, ElectricityHeat, Electricity
Useful Heat, Mobility,Lighting
Useful Heat, Mobility,Lighting
From Fuel to Useful EnergyFrom Fuel to Useful Energy
Energy for• Economic Development
• Power• Political Instability/Crises
• Destruction
Energy and SocietyEnergy and Society
Energy and Development
Evolution in IndustryEvolution in Industry Evolution in the Transport-SectorEvolution in the Transport-Sector
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Evolution in Mobility / TrafficEvolution in Mobility / Traffic Evolution in the Lighting-SectorEvolution in the Lighting-Sector
Energy forPower and Destruction
Countries withEnergy Sources:
Danger forPolitical Instability !
Nuclear Power for Destruction !
Main Questions to ourPresent EnergyConsumption
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On the limits of energy consumption
Traffic of TODAYTraffic of TODAY
The Energy Problems of Today
ConflictsConflicts in in EnergyEnergy SupplySupplyResources/Technologies, Environment, Industry, Society
Limited Fossil and NuclearEnergy Sources
World Total Primary Energy Supply 2009Fuel Shares of TPS
Renewables13%
Nuclear6%
Fossil81%
About 90% of the present
energy sourceswill not be available
in the midterm-to longterm future
Welt-Primärenergie-Aufkommen 2008Anteile der Energieträger
Wasserkraft2,2%
Biogene Energie10,0%
Geothermie, Solar, Wind u.a.
0,7%
Kernenergie5,8%
Kohle27,0%
Erdöl33,2%
Erdgas21,1%
Gesamt 2008: 12.267 Mtoe= 513,58 EJIEA-World Energy Statistics 2010
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Welt-Primärenergie-Aufkommen 2009Anteile der Regionen
Mittlerer Osten4,8%
China17,4%
Nicht-OECD Europa0,9%
Asien11,5%
Lateinamerika4,7%
Afrika5,3%
World Marine Bunkers
2,7%
Ehemalige USSR8,5%
OECD44,2%
Gesamt 2008: 12.267 Mtoe= 513,58 EJ
IEA-World Energy Statistics 2010
AboutAbout 70% 70% -- 80% 80% of of thethe presentpresent
energyenergy resourcesresourceswill will bebe usedused byby20% 20% -- 30% of 30% of
worldworld populationpopulation
Non-Balance of Energy ConsumptionNon-Balance of Energy Consumption
The Greenhouse-Problem
The Greenhouse-Problem
Increasing Impacts to Environment –
With high Potential for fast Climate Change
Increasing Impacts to Environment –
With high Potential for fast Climate Change
Signals for climate ChangeSignals for climate Change
CO2-Emission and Global Warming
CO2-Emission and Global Warming
The natural CO2-CycleThe natural CO2-Cycle
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• CO2 is a natural emission and non-toxic.
• CO2 has to be in a cycle.
• If not, than CO2 will be absorbedin the atmosphere and will have
consequences for Global Warming(„Greenhouse Effect“).
Greenhouse Effect & Global WarmingGreenhouse Effect & Global Warming
Solar radiation at the high frequencies of visible light passes through the atmosphere to warm the planetary surface, which
then emits this energy at the lower frequencies of infrared thermal radiation. Infrared radiation is absorbed by
atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower
atmosphere.
The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by
atmospheric greenhouse gases.
As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only
warming mechanism.
The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect EnergierelevanteEnergierelevante COCO2 2 -- EmissionEmissionenen
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mill
ione
n T
onne
n C
O 2
World OECDTransition economies Developing countriesWeltweite CO2-Emissionen nehmen mit 1,8 % pro Jahr zu und
erreichen 38 Milliarden Tonnen im Jahr 2030 –70% über dem Kyoto-Ziel
Quelle: IEA World Energy Outlook 2002
Developing Countries
OECD
World
TransitionEconomies
Greenhouse -Gases WorldwideCO 2 -Equivalent, billion tons/year
14
5512
14
7
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 20501990 and Forecast 2050
CO
2-eq
uiv
alen
t, b
illio
nto
ns/
year
EU-Member States
Non-EU-Member States
Developing Countries
33
73
KLIMAWANDEL: Szenarios für globale Erwärmung
Durchschnittstemperatur weltweit, Abweichung vom Mittel der Jahre 1980 - 1999 in °C
-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Tem
per
atu
rerh
öh
un
g, °
C Szenario 1Szenario 2Szenario 3
Szenario 1: Einfrieren der Treibhausgas-Emissionen auf Stand 2000
Szenario 2: Weltweite Maßnahmen zur Emissions-Reduktion
Szenario 3: Wenig internationale Maßnahmen
Prognose
UNO-Klimabericht, Januar 2007
Nach Klima-Studien kann eine Klimakatastrophe (mit Abschmelzen der Polkappen, Auftauen von Permaböden mit Methan-Emission etc.) nur vermieden werden,
wenn die Erhöhung der globalen Durchschnittstemperatur unter 2 °C gehalten werden kann.
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Entwicklung der energiebedingten und umweltrelevanten Treibhausgasemissionen in Österreich
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
TH
G-E
mis
sio
n, M
io T
on
nen
/Jah
r
CO2, Mio Tonnen/JahrCO2-Äquivalent, Mio Tonnen/Jahr
68,8Kyoto-Ziel 2008
85,2,
2010: 390 CO2(p.p.m.)
CO2 and Consequences !
Treibhausgas-Emission nach Sektoren in Österreich 2009
Abfallwirtschaft2%
Verkehr27%
"Fluorierte Gase"2%
Industrie und produzierendes
Gewerbe29%
Energieaufbringung16%
Raumwärme und sonstige
Kleinverbraucher14%
Landwirtschaft9%
Sonstige Emissionen
1%
Gesamt 2009: 80,1 Millionen Tonnen CO2-Äquivalent (THG-Emission) Quelle: Umweltbundesamt 2011
CO2-Emission byCombustion of
Fossil Fuels and Biomass
0,29 0,290,26
0,35
0,40
0,33
0,19
0,39
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
Sp
ezif
isch
e K
oh
len
dio
xid
emis
sio
n,
kg C
O2/
kW
h
ERDÖ
L
Heizöl,
schw
er
Heizöl,
leicht
KOHL
E
Braunk
ohle
Steink
ohle
ERDG
AS
BIOMAS
SE
Kohlendioxidemission bei der Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger und Biomasse
CO2-neutral Combustion of BiomassCO2-neutral Combustion of Biomass
Sustainable Use:Regrowing =
Utilisation + microbiological losses
Carbon Dioxide-Balance
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Power Plantwith CO2 -Storage
Oil and Gas Yields
Salt-Aquifere
Coal Yields
PipelinePipeline Ocean
Concepts for CO2-StorageConcepts for CO2-Storage
The Danger of CO2-Emissions for Habitat and Climate
The Danger of CO2-Emissions for Habitat and Climate
Mögliche Folgen einer KlimaänderungMögliche Folgen einer KlimaänderungDie möglichen Folgen einer raschen Klimaänderung
-ohne Chance auf eine Anpassung des Menschen an einen neuen Lebensraum – sind vielfältig:
⇒ Extreme Änderungen im Wettergeschehen,Zunahme der Intensität von Unwetter-Katastrophen.
⇒ Rückgang der Gletscher mit Zunahme der Gefahren in den Alpen.
⇒ Abschmelzen der Polkappen mit Anstieg der Meeresoberfläche.
⇒ Noch unvorhersagbare Auswirkungen auf Flora und Fauna.
(1) Abschmelzen der Pole, (2) Auftauen von Permafrostboden,(3) Dürre und Brände, (4) Sintfluten und Stürme,
(5) Ozeane in Not, (6) Artenverlust
1
4
4
5
6
1
34
4
6
222
2
13
Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (1)Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (1)
Bedrohung des Lebensraumes der ERDE:
(1) Abschmelzen des Polareises:
Verlust von Trinkwasserreserven, Überschwemmung von Küstenstädten durch
Meeresanstieg, Austreten von im Eis gespeicherten Methan.
Eisfreie Arktisregion bedeutet aber auch Vorteile für Schifffahrt und leichterer Zugang zu
Bodenschätzen: Erdölquellen über von Eis bedeckten Meeresboden.
Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (2)Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (2)
(2) Auftauen von Permafrostboden:
Geographisch handelt es sich um große Teile Nordkanadas, Alaskas, Grönlands und Ostsibirien.
Dauerfrostboden sind bis zu Tiefen von 1.450 m das ganze Jahr gefroren. Taut die gefrorene aus
voreiszeitlich konservierter Fauna und Flora gebildete Biomasse auf, dann gibt der Morast Methan (CH4) frei, ein Treibhausgas mit noch
größerer Wirkung im Vergleich zu Kohlendioxid (CO2): um bis zu 80-mal stärker.
Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (3)Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (3)
(3) Dürre und Brände:
Verlust von Ackerland, Ernteausfälle und Hungersnöte.
(4) Sintfluten und Stürme:
Warme Luft speichert mehr Wasser – die Gefahr von starken Regenfällen steigt. Je wärmer das
Meerwasser, desto größer die Zerstörungskraftder Hurrikane und Taifune.
Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (4)Globale Erwärmung durch Klimawandel (4)
(5) Artenverlust:
Mit der Temperaturerhöhung sind vieleLandtierarten bedroht. Die frühe Eisschmelze
entzieht den Eisbären die Jagdgründe.
(6) Ozeane in Not:
Fische versuchen dem warmen Wasser zu entgehen, giftige Algen breiten sich aus. Das gesamte
Ökosystem wird gestört.
Der Golfstrom – Gefahren für das Klima (5)Der Golfstrom – Gefahren für das Klima (5)
Im Zusammenhang mit der globalen Klimaerwärmung kommt dem Golfstrom
eine besondere Bedeutung zu.
Durch die Erwärmung des Polargebietes vermindert sich die Abkühlung des Oberflächenwassers, wodurch die
Golfzirkulation geschwächt oder sogar ganz unterbunden werden könnte. Damit
verbunden wäre einer Verschiebung der Klimazonen.
Nuclear Power Accidentsand the unsolved problem to handle
the Nuclear Wastewill have consequences
for the further deployment of Nuclear Energy Power.
Has Nuclear Power a future ??Has Nuclear Power a future ??
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Nuclear Power Accidents (1)Nuclear Power Accidents (1)
Fukishima, Japan: 11. March 2011
Nuclear Power Accidents (2)Nuclear Power Accidents (2)
Tschernobyl, Ukraine: 26 April 1986
Gefährdungspotential durch radioaktiver AbfälleGefährdungspotential durch radioaktiver Abfälle Entsorgung radioaktiver AbfälleEntsorgung radioaktiver Abfälle• Derzeit werden jährlich etwa 9.500 Tonnen
Kernbrennstoff abgebrannt. Der dabei entstehende radioaktive Abfall enthält Elemente, die
Hunderttausend Jahre lang radioaktive Strahlung abgeben und damit eine potentielle Gefahr für die Umwelt darstellen – sofern ihr Endlager nicht von
der Umwelt abgeschottet bleibt.
• Derzeitige Bemühungen in Forschung und Entwicklung beziehen sich auf einen alternativen Brennstoff-Kreislauf, bei dem die Radioaktivität des anfallenden Atommülls schon nach 1.000
Jahren auf das Niveau einer natürlichen Uranerzlagerstätte fällt.
Are we Responsible for theLong-Term Availability
of Energy Sources ?
Energy & Ethos• Only few generations of human civilisation
consume the energy sources of EARTH –produced by natural processes
in billion years !
• And we are disturbing the Environmentand therefore danger future Human Life !
Is this fair to our following generations ??
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Do we have enough timeto substitute
Fossil and Nuclear Resourcesby Renewables ?
Open Questions to establish a New Energy Economy
Do we have time enough to substitute fossil and nuclear sources by Renewables ?
Will the market deployment of Renewablesfast enough to come on the market ?
Do we have the willingness to enter in a New Energy Economy ?
Long Time-Period for Market Deployment of New Energy Systems !
Long Time-Period for Market Deployment of New Energy Systems !
The Market deploymentof New Energy Systems
needs some decades !
Lessons Learned
Do we need Renewables ?Do we need Renewables ? TWO important Arguments:• Limited Fossil and Nuclear Energy
Sources• Impacts to Environment by CO2-Emission and Radioactive Emission
(Nuclear Waste and Power Accident)
Yes !!
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Proven Oil Reserves at End-2002
40 30
50 30
200 50
40 20
0 50 100 150 200 250
Years
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear (Uranium)
Availability of Fossil and Nuclear (Fission) Sources
Existing Yields Expected Yields (??)
Oil resourcesUndiscovered oil resources range from 494 billion
barrels at 95% probability to 1589 billion barrels at 5% probability. Oil reserves growth varies more widely,
from 229 billion barrels to 1230 million barrels. Ultimate oil reserves vary among regions, but, as is the
case for proven reserves, the Middle East and the transition economies hold the majority of them. By
2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built.
Typically Crude-Oil Production in Oil-Yields
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
TIME
Pro
du
ctio
n-R
ate,
%/Y
ear
Increasing Production Constant Production Rate Decline Phase
PEAK-OIL
Crude-Oil Yields in Operation 2007: 780In Decline Phase Yields: 580 (74%)
Average Annual Growth-Rate of Decline-Phase:From 6.7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030
Proven Oil Reserves at End-2002 Gas resourcesProven gas resources have outpaced production by a wide margin since the 1970s and are now equal to about 66 years of production at current rates.
With an annual grow rate of 2.3%, reserves would last 40 years.
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Coal resourcesProven coal reserves worldwide total 907 billion
tonnes are almost 200 years of production at current rates.
Coal production in Europe will continue to decline as subsidies are reduced and uncompetitive
mines are closed. Political instabilities in the main supply countries
of carbon fuels cause additional risks for the security of supply.
Nuclear resources and Power Plants (1)
Nuclear fission with the introduction of Generation IV reactors in combination with
effective waste disposal / recycling was convinced up to now as a good option from
the point of view of operating cost, life cycle emissions, and availability of primary fuel.
Nuclear resources and Power Plants (2)Although there were acceptability problems in some
Member States and since the reactor accident in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 more States are willing to
cancel the planning of new fission reactors and to close operating reactors when reached the planned lifetime of
30 years in operating. Also unsolved problems with a long-time (more than 1000 years) waste disposal and
the limited fuel resources (uranium, thorium) are important arguments which can not be ignored in planning of long-term sustainable energy systems.
Nuclear ResourcesNuclear Resources
• Uran-Supply 2005: 66 000 tons/yearUran-Production 2005: 40 000 tons/year
The difference of 26 000 tons in 2005 was coming fromsecundary resources: recycelt material from Military sources.
• Proven Resources: 3 million tonnesConsidering the present Supply: Reserves for 45 years
Nuclear Power Plants in Operation (January 2011): 437Operation Time > 20 years: 327Operation Time > 30 years: 87Operation Time < 20 years: 23
State of the ARTState of the ART
The Vision of Nuclear FusionThe Vision of Nuclear Fusion
Research Fusion Reactor ITERin Development
Cadarache, France
Research Fusion Reactor ITERin Development
Cadarache, France
The Nuclear Fusion Processis realized in the SUN,
but is not availableon EARTH - up to now -for Electricity Production.
If Nuclear Fusion will be possible,
than it would takemore decades
to come on the market.
Not before 2100!
Nuclear FusionNuclear Fusion
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Nuclear Fusion (1)Nuclear fusion energy has long been seen as a
potentially attractive new source of electricity. It tantalisingly offers most of the advantages of fission
power with even more readily available fuels and without the possibility of major reactor accidents
releasing large quantities of radioactive material, and without producing very long-lived radioactive wastes.
For many years even its technical feasibility was in doubt, but that has now been demonstrated with high
confidence.
Nuclear Fusion (2)
The uncertainty which still remains is whether it will be a practical and reliable energy source, given the
complexity of the technology and, in particular, whether the energy will be produced at anything like a
competitive cost. Unfortunately, because fusion technology is complex and inevitably large scale, the research is very expensive; it simply cannot be taken
forward at low cost.
Nuclear Fusion (3)To demonstrate fusion’s technical feasibility with
certainty and gain some experience with the operation of realistic-scale fusion technology and subsystems, the
International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) will be built in Europe, with international collaboration to share the costs, but with the EU
playing an active, leading role. New materials and new technologies have to be developed and demonstrated, which are needed for reactors when are used at high-
load factors. The realisation of nuclear fusion reactors for market introduction will take some decades.
Renewable Energy Sourceshave the potential to meet the
challenges of Climate Change and
Energy Security !
Renewable Energyand Energy Policy
Renewable Energyand Energy Policy
A New View aboutFuture Energy Systems
ENERGIENEUDENKEN
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ENERGIENEUDENKEN„Das Weltenergiesystem steht an einem Scheideweg. Die derzeitigen weltweiten
Trends von Energieversorgung und Energieverbrauch sind eindeutig nicht
zukunftsfähig. Es braucht nichts Geringeres als eine Energierevolution“.
Internationale Energieagentur, IEA/OECD
Energiestrategie Österreich
Political Goals for Future Energy Consumption and
Energy Sources
EU-Goals for Energy Supply in EU-Member States2000 ? 2020
EU-Goals for Energy Supply in EU-Member States2000 ? 2020
Improvement of Energy-Efficiency
Improved contribution of Renewablesto Energy Supply
Reduction of Energy-relatedCO2-Emission
+ 20%
+ 20%
- 20%
20 / 20 / 20
100 %
80 %
60 %
40 %
20 %
0 %
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU-Roadmap zur THG-Emissionsreduktion
Wege zur Verringerung der Treibhausgas-Emissionen in der EU um 80% (100% = 1990)
17501890
1500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
En
erg
y S
up
ply
, Mto
e
2005 2020 2020
Development of Total Primary Energy Supply in EU-25: 2005 - 2020: "Business as usual" and Goal
Supply GoalBusiness as usual
- 20%
Goals for Energy Efficiency in EU-25
2,7
2,6
2,8
2,2
1,6
1,4
1,5
0,9
1,9
1,3
1,8
0,4
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
Industry
Households
Trade, Energy Service
Transportation
%/Year
90 - 00 IST00 -20 Trend00 - 20 Scenario
20
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
En
erg
y, T
Wh
/Yea
r
Heat Demand EU 252004
Heat Demand EU 252030
Solar Thermal 2030 Solar Thermal 2050
Scenario for Contribution of Solar Heat to EU Demand by Sectors
Households
Commerce, Service
IndustryReduction of 40%
20%
50%
ENERGY DEMAND
SOLAR THERMAL
Who is responsible forEnergy Supply and Energy Security ?
Who is responsible forEnergy Supply and Energy Security ?
The STATESIn Europe with
Recommendations and Directivesof EU-Commission
Instruments of Energy PolicyInstruments of Energy Policy• Rules: Building Codes, …
• Financial Support: Subsidies, special tarriff for Renewable electricity
production, and other measures• Public RD&D Budget
• Programs and Initiatives for Market Deployment
The Potential of RenewablesThe Potential of Renewables
Energy from SUNEnergy from SUN
2 – 6 per year2 – 6 per yearWorld energy use16 TW -yrper year
COAL 1,8
Uranium 1,9
900Total reserve
900Total reserve
90 - 300Total
90 - 300Total
Petroleum 1,8
240total
240total
Natural Gas 1,8
215total
215total
WIND 1,2
Waves11,3
0.2-2
25 -70per year
25 -70per year
OTEC 1,4
Biomass 1,5
3 - 11 per year3 - 11 per year
HYDRO 1,6
3 – 4 per year3 – 4 per year
TIDES 1
SOLAR 10
23,000 per year
Geothermal 1,70.3 – 2 per year0.3 – 2 per year
© R. Perez et al.
0.3 per year0.3 per year
A N W R
The Power of Solar EnergyComparing finite and renewable planetary energy reserves (in TWh/year)
Total recoverable reserves are shown for the finite resources.Yearly potential is shown for the renewables.
Source: Richard Perez of the University of Albany, NY, USA and Marc Perez of AltPOWER Inc., New York, NY, USA
21
Solar radiation on collector surface
Solar RadiationSolar Radiation The Solar Energy on EarthThe Solar Energy on Earth
Absorbed Solar Energyon horizontal surface
800 und 2.200 kWh/(m², year).
Solar Radiation on horizontal surface kWh/(m², year)
Global Solar RadiationGlobal Solar Radiation The Solar Energy on EarthThe Solar Energy on Earth
Solar Power/ Capacityon horizontal surface
North: up to 800 W/m²Middle Europe: up to 900 W/m²
South: up to 1.100 W/m²
Solar RadiationkW/m²
Cloudless DayAustria
Global Radiation Direct RadiationkW/m²
Solar Power on EARTHSolar Power on EARTH
Hour
Winter
Summer
Spring
Maximal value when entering theatmosphere:
1.340 W/m²Solar Constant
Maximal Solar Power Maximal Solar Power
≈ 20.000 m above ground
22
On the Surface of EARTH absorbed Solar Energy
On the Surface of EARTH absorbed Solar Energy
About 5,5 - 6,0 Millionen EJ/Year
1 Exa-Joule, EJ = 1018 Joule, J
On the Surface of EARTH absorbed Solar Energy
5,50 – 6,00 Mill. EJ/Jahr
•
The Potential of Solar Energy UtilisationThe Potential of Solar Energy Utilisation
Considering the lossesin transport and storage of 30%,
the potential of useful solar energy(solar heat and solar electricity)
will amount to
0,039*106 * 0,70 = 0,027*106 EJ/year,58-times of World Energy Consumption 2004 (463 EJ)
Energy Sources – produced by Solar EnergyEnergy Sources – produced by Solar Energy
Solar RadiationDirect TransformationDirect Transformation Indirect TransformationIndirect Transformation
Direct Heat Production(Air, Ground, Water )
Photosynthesis(Hydro Carbons:
Fossil and Bio-Energy Sources)
Solar Systems:Thermal and Electric
(Solar Heat and Solar Electricity)
Hydropower,Windpower,
Ocean Energy,Ambient Heat
(Utilised with Heat Pumps)
• Theoretically Potential⇓⇓
• Technically possible Potential⇓⇓
• Realistically possible Potential⇓⇓
• Economically useful PotentialImportant Criteria‘s:
Ecomomic, Social and Political Framework
Potential of Renewable Energy SourcesPotential of Renewable Energy SourcesSource Potential, EJ/Year
Geothermal energy 500 5000 (?)Solar Electric (Photovoltaic) 5 15Solar Heating and Cooling 15 60
Windpower 200 700Hydropower 400 1200Tidal Energy 30 50
Solar Hydrogen 1 2Ocean Wave 30 300
Marine Current 3Salinity 7
Ocean Thermal (OTEC) 36TOTAL 1227 7400 (?)
Possible Useful Potential of WorldwideRenewable Energy Sources
23
Estimates for Technical Potential of Worldwide Renewable Energy Sources
30
500
15
400
200
5 0,5 20 30 1 3 2050
1000
60
1200
700
15 1 30
300
3 7 360
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Hydro
-Power
Geothe
rmal
Energ
y
Solar
Heating
and C
ooling Bioe
nergy
Wind-Po
wer
Solar
Elec
tric, P
V
Tidal E
nergy
Solar
Hydrog
en
Ocean W
ave
Ocean M
arine C
urrent
Ocean S
alinity
Ocean T
hermal,
OTEC
Ann
ual C
ontr
ibut
ion,
EJ/
year
Realistic Potential, EJ/year
Optimistic Potential, EJ/year
Proven Technologies not available
Worldwide Total Primary Energy Supply, TPES:2003:443 EJ/year 2030 (Outlook): 691 EJ/year
Renewable Energy Technologies on the Market
Renewable Energy Technologies on the Market
Renewable Energy Technologies
Hydropower
Geothermal Energy
24
Geothermal EnergyGeothermal Energy
Low Temperature HeatGeothermal Heat
until 200 m under the Ground-Surface
• Geothermal Heat Pumps (Soil and Ground Water)
• Thermal Water
Deep Geothermal EnergyFor direct Heat Production and thermal
Electricity (until 3000 m)
Geothermal Systems
Bioenergy
Bio-Energy Systems
Solid Biomass-Products in Austria 2010Solid Biomass-Products in Austria 2010
Brennholz Holzbriketts
PelletsHackgut
41,6 %
50,0%
1,5 %
6,9 %
Fire Wood
Wood Chips
Wood Briquettes
Wood Pellets
Wood PelletsWood Pellets
25
Mit Förderschnecke und Saugturbine
FRÖLINGFahrbarer Aschebehälter
Vollautomatische Beschickung von PelletskesselVollautomatische Beschickung von PelletskesselVollautomatische Beschickung von Pelletskessel
Pellets,Wood Chips,Briquettes
Biomass-Heating SystemsBiomass-Heating Systems
Biomass-Heat-Power-PlantsBiomassBiomass--HeatHeat--PowerPower--PlantsPlantsBio-Sprit from AgricultureBio-Sprit from Agriculture
Windpower
Wind-Energy Systems
26
Onshore-Wind Turbines
Onshore-Wind Turbines
Offshore-Wind TurbinesOffshore-Wind Turbines
Wind TurbinesWind TurbinesEonomic available
Onshore Applications near the Ocean
Under Development / Demonstration
Offshore Applications in the Ocean
Solar Thermal
Solar Heating Systems
CombinedSolar Heating Systems
CombinedSolar Heating Systems
Hot Water PreparationHot Water Preparation
Application Sectors for Solar Thermal Collectors in Austria
Swimming Pool HeatingSwimming Pool Heating
27
Non-Concentrating (a) and Concentrating Collectors (b, c)
Collector TypesCollector Types
Col
lect
or-T
ype
⇒ Concentrating Collector
Advanced Flat-plate Collector, Evacuated Collector
Flat-plate Collector, CPC-Collector
Plastic Absorber
Working-Temperatures, °C
Collector Types and Working Temperatures
0°C 50°C 100°C 150°C 200°C 250°C
Unglazed Collectors
Evacuated Tube-Collector
Plastic Absorber Solarwall (Air-Collector)
Glazed CollectorsFlat-plate Collector
Kollektor
Warmwasser
Evacuated Pipe Collector Collector Installation Today
28
Facade Collectors in Dwellings
Collector
Solar Compact System for Hot Water Preparation
Hot Water
(1),(2) Collector-Pipes
(3) Tank
(6)–(13) Control & Regulation
(5) AuxiliaryHeat
(4) Heat Exchanger
Cold Water
Solar Hot Water Preparation in Dwellings:Guideline for Planning
Solar Hot Water Preparation in Dwellings:Guideline for Planning
1 to 3 Persons:
6 m² Collector Area, 300 Litre Water Storage
3 to 6 Persons:
8 m² Collector Area, 500 Litre Water Storage
Solar Hot Water SystemSolar Heat output
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Solar heat, kWh/month
Stockholm Zurich Milan
Solar System for Household
Collector area: 8 m²(selective flat plate)
Storage volume: 500 litre
120 litre/day (50°C)
Annual heat output:
Stockholm: 2370 kWh/aZurich: 2569 kWh/aMilan: 2753 kWh/a
6675
80
6168
74
0
10
2030
40
50
60
70
80Solar share, %/a
8 m² / 500 litre 6 m²/ 300 litre
Collector area / storage volume
Solar System for Hot WaterCompact System for Household
Stockholm Zurich Milan
Selective flat plate collector
Azimuth: 0° (south), Inclination: 45°
120 litre/day (50°C)
29
7380
85
6774
79
0102030405060708090
Solar share, %/a
8 m² / 500 litre 6 m²/ 300 litre
Collector area / storage volume
Solar System for Hot WaterCompact System for Household
Stockholm Zurich Milan
Evacuatedcollector
Azimuth: 0° (south),
Inclination: 45°
120 litre/day (50°C)
0
1020
30
4050
60
7080
90
100
Solar share/month, %
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Solar Hot Water SystemCompact System for Household, 120 litre/day (50°C), Zurich
Solar Heat Auxiliary Heat
Annual Solar Share:74,8%
Selective flat plate collectorAzimuth: 0° (south)
Inclination: 45°
Collector area: 8 m²
Storage volume: 500 litre
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Solar share/month, %
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Solar Hot Water SystemApartment House, 16 flats, 1920 litre/day (50°C), Zurich
Solar Heat Auxiliary Heat
Annual Solar Share:60,6%
Selective flat plate collector
Azimuth: 0° (south)Inclination: 45°
Collector area: 96 m²
Storage volume: 4000 litre
26
3744
34
4654 50
66 72
58
78 82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Solar share, %/a
16 m²/1 m³ 25 m²/2 m³ 50 m²/5 m³ 80 m²/10 m³Collector area / storage volume
Solar CombisystemDetached Low Energy Single-Family House
Stockholm Zurich Milan
Selective flat plate collector
80 m² Collector Area und 80 m³ 80 m² Collector Area und 80 m³ WaterWater--Storage, AustriaStorage, Austria
Annual Solar Share : 90% – 100%(Hot Water & Space Heat)
Seasonal Storage for SolarCombi-SystemSeasonal Storage for SolarCombi-System
3242
5041
5563 60
7784
71
8695
010
2030
405060
7080
90100
Solar share, %/a
16 m²/1 m³ 25 m²/2 m³ 50 m²/5 m³ 80 m²/10 m³Collector area / storage volume
Solar CombisystemDetached Low Energy Single-Family House
Stockholm Zurich Milan
Evacuated collector
30
0
10
20
30
4050
60
70
80
90
100Solar share/month,
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Solar CombisystemDetached Passive House, Zurich
Solar Heat Auxiliary Heat
Annual Solar Share:36,5%
Selective flat plate collectorAzimuth: 0° (south)
Inclination: 45°
Collector area: 16 m²
Storage volume: 2000 litre
Hot Hot WaterWater & & SpaceSpace HeatHeat
Solar Supported District Heatingfor Appartment Buildings
Solar Supported District Heatingfor Appartment Buildings
AnnualSolar Share:
40% - 60%
100 m³ Water Tank
Solar Supported Biomass District HeatingSolar Supported Biomass District Heating
Solar Energy Utilisation in Buildings
Solar Electric Solar Thermal
35
High Temperature Solar Energy
Solar High-Temperature-Systems
High Temperature Solar Energy
UtilisationUtilisation of of DirectDirect Solar Solar RadiationRadiation
Parabolic Mirrors, Troughs und Heliostats
Concentrating CollectorsConcentrating Collectors
36
Solar-FurnaceOdeillo, FrankreichSolar-Furnace
Odeillo, Frankreich
Thermal Solar Power Plant in Barstow, USAThermal Solar Power Plant in Barstow, USA Thermal Solar Power Plant in Almeria, SpainThermal Solar Power Plant in Almeria, Spain
Plataforma Solar
Photovoltaic Electricity
Solar Electrical SystemsPhotovoltaic Systems
37
è
Solar Cell and Solar ModuleSolar Cell and Solar Module Materials for Solar CellsMaterials for Solar Cells
Photovoltaic SystemsPhotovoltaic Systems
Grid Connected Stand Alone
Grid-connected PV-SystemsGrid-connected PV-Systems
The PVT-GeneratorThe PVT-Generator
PV-Generator with PV-Cells in combinationwith a heat-exchanger for heat production.
Conversion of Solar Energy in 10% Electricity and 70% Heat.
Stand-alone PV-Systems in Alpine Regions
Stand-alone PV-Systems in Alpine Regions
38
Stand-alone Photovoltaic SystemsStand-alone Photovoltaic Systems Photovoltaic: Symbol for „clean“ Electricity Production
Photovoltaic: Symbol for „clean“ Electricity Production
The actual contribution of PV-Systems to the
world -wide ElectricityProduction is at thebeginning and small.
But the contribution of PV-Systems to improvement of
life-quality in developingcountries is high.
Contribution of PV-Systems to Electricity Production
Contribution of PV-Systems to Electricity Production
Photovoltaic Systems in Developing CountriesPhotovoltaic Systems in Developing Countries
Photovoltaic Systems in Developing CountriesPhotovoltaic Systems in Developing Countries
PV-Electricity for Mobility
39
PV-Electricity for Mobility• Storage Capacity (Lithium-Ionen):
15 bis 20 kWh
• Electricity Consumption: 12 – 15 kWh/100 km
• Distance: 80 – 150 kmGoal (midterm): 300 km
PV-Electricity for MobilityPV-Production: 900 – 1200 kWh/kWpeak
Austria. PV-Module: 9 – 10 m²
Example:10.000 km/a
15 kWh/100 kmElectricity Demand: 1.500 kWh/a
PV-Anlage:1,2 – 1,7 kWpeak (12 - 17 m² PV-Module)
New Developments onPV-Technologies
New Developments onPV-Technologies
Perspectives for Solar Cells
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Crystalline Solar Cells
Thinfilm Solar Cells
Organic Solar Cells
Coloured Solar Cells
"Tandem"-Solar Cells
New Concepts
Efficiency of Solar Cells, %
30% - 50%
12% - 15%
10% - 15%
6% - 10%
6% - 10%
20% - 40%
Actual on the Market
Potential for Development until 2030
Potential for Development later 2030
Perspectives for Solar Cells
0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16 0,18 0,2
Crystalline Solar Cells
Thinfilm Solar Cells
Organic Solar Cells
Coloured Solar Cells
"Tandem"-Solar Cells
New Concepts
Electricity Production Costs , Euro/kWh
0,6 - 0,8 €/kWh
= 0,6 €/kWh
0,06 - 0,14 €/kWh
0,06 - 0,14 €/kWh
0,06 - 0,14 €/kWh
0,06 - 0,14 €/kWh
Future Options
Novel Cell Concepts
Stacked Multispectral Solar CellLiquid Electrolyte Solar Cell
MIS – CellMetal Insul . Silicon
New Concepts for Solar CellsNew Concepts for Solar Cells
40
Ambient Heat & Heat PumpAmbient Heat & Heat Pump
StoredSolar Energy
and Geothermal Energy
Heat Pump Systems
Function of Electrical Driven Heat PumpFunction of Electrical Driven Heat Pump
Coefficent of Performance (COP)(Arbeitszahl)
Produced Heat (3) / Driving Energy (1)(Electricity)
Efficiency of Heat PumpsEfficiency of Heat Pumps
1
23
COP = 3
Heat Pump SystemsHeat Pump Systems
Outside AirGround, Soil
Ground Water
Soil-Heat Pump with Verticale BoreholesSoil-Heat Pump with Verticale Boreholes
Waterkotte
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Leistungszahl e als Funktion der Temperaturdifferenz ? T zwischen Verdampfer und Verflüssiger
Tem
per
atu
rdif
fere
nz
?T,
K
Leistungszahl e
?T = 25 K ? e = 6,0
?T = 40 K ? e = 4,0z.B. 10°C ? 50°C
z.B. 10°C ? 35°C
State of the Art of NewRenewable Energy Technologies
State of the Art of NewRenewable Energy Technologies
Time
Mar
ket D
eplo
ymen
t
Development Commercial MarketDemonstration
Solar-CoolingBio-Heat
Passive-Solar
Solar Hot WaterSolar Space Heating
Bio-Sprit
Solar High Temperature
Deep Geothermal Recources
GeothermalHeat Pumps
Windpower
Hydropower
Ocean Energy
Novel PV-Technologies
PhotovoltaicPV-Plastic Solarcells
Market Situation and Market Deploymentof Renewable Energy Technologies
Market Situation and Market Deploymentof Renewable Energy Technologies
Market Deployment of Solar Thermal SystemsFrom Research and Development to Market Deployment
Market Deployment of Solar Thermal SystemsFrom Research and Development to Market Deployment
Market Deployment
Research and Development Market Introduction Market Deployment
District Heating
Domestic Hot Water
Hot Water in Multi-family Housing
Solar-Combisystems
Facade Collector Systems
Sea Water desalination
Process HeatCooling
Swimming Pool Heating
Economics of Renewable Energy Technologies
Economics of Renewable Energy Technologies
1
10
100
kWh
Ko
sten
in E
uro
cen
ts
Installierte Leistung in kW pro Einwohner1 10 100 1000
Bio-Strom
199820102020
Geothermie
Klein-Wasserkraft
Solar elektrisch, PV
Solar thermisch
Wind
G. Faninger, 2004Quelle: IEA-REWP
Technologische „learning curve“ & Potential für Kostenreduktion
42
Quelle: PSE GmbH, 2005
Preisentwicklung der Silizium-SolarzellenPreisentwicklung der Silizium-SolarzellenKollektor- und Systempreisentwicklung von Solaranlagen zur
Warmwasserbereitung in Österreich
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Eu
ro/m
² Ko
llekt
orf
läch
e 1.140
905
440535Kollektorpreis
Systempreis
Typische PV-Systempreise 1 kWpeak Anlagen, netzgekoppelt in Österreich
2.800
4.216
5.500
3.300
4.4004.984
5.765
6.5007.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
2008 2009 2010
Euro/kWpeak (exkl. MWSt.)
Unterer Wert Mittelwert Oberer Wert
Wärme- und StromerzeugungskostenBezogen auf Jahreskosten für Betrachtungszeitraum
0,104
0,109
0,164
0,162
0,179
0,125
0,196
0,000 0,050 0,100 0,150 0,200 0,250
Solaranlage für WW
Solaranlage für WW&RH
Wärmepumpe
Pelletskessel
Heizölkessel
Gaskessel
PV-Anlage
Erzeugungskosten €/kWh
Strom
Wärme
Good NewsGood NewsAutomatisation and Mass-production
in the Solar SectorAutomatisation and Mass-production
in the Solar Sector
43
Solar -RoboterKollektor-ProduktionGREENoneTEC PV-Modul ErzeugungGREENoneTEC
Economics of Renewable Energy Technologies
Economics of Renewable Energy Technologies
Positive Influence• Successful market implementation,
• Mass ProductionNegative Influence
Increase of Material Costs(e.g. Copper, Aluminium for Collector-Absorbers)
Factors for the Cost-Development of New Energy Technologies
Factors for the Cost-Development of New Energy Technologies
Successful market implementation sets up a positive price growth cycle.
Market growth provides learning and reduces price, which makes the product more
attractive, supporting further growth which further reduces price, etc.
Successful Market Implementation of New Energy Technologies
Successful Market Implementation of New Energy Technologies Consequently, the experience effect leads to a
competition between technologies to take advantage of opportunities for learning
provided by the market. To exploit the opportunity, the emerging and
still too expensive technology also has to compete for learning investments.
44
The experience-curve phenomenon presents the policy-maker with both risks and
potential benefits. The risks involve the lock-out of potentially
low-cost and environmentally friendly technologies.
The benefits lie in the creation of new energy technology options by exploiting the learning
effect, e.g., through niche markets.
However, there is also the risk that expected benefits will not materialise. Learning
opportunities in the market and learning investments are both scarce resources.
Policy decisions to support market learning for a technology must therefore be based on
assessment of the future markets for the technology and its value to the energy system.
1
10
100
kWh
Ko
sten
in E
uro
cen
ts
Installierte Leistung in kW pro Einwohner1 10 100 1000
Bio-Strom
199820102020
Geothermie
Klein-Wasserkraft
Solar elektrisch, PV
Solar thermisch
Wind
G. Faninger, 2004Quelle: IEA-REWP
„Learning Curve“& Potential for Cost Reduction
Quelle: PSE GmbH, 2005
Preisentwicklung der Silizium-SolarzellenPreisentwicklung der Silizium-Solarzellen
Increasing Public Budget forEnergy-Efficiency
and Renewables
Increasing Public Budget forEnergy-Efficiency
and Renewables
Ausgaben der Öffentlichen Hand für Energieforschung in Österreich: 1977 - 2009
0
10.000.000
20.000.000
30.000.000
40.000.000
50.000.000
60.000.000
70.000.000
80.000.000
90.000.000
100.000.000
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Eu
ro/J
ahr
QuerschnittsthemenWasserstoff & Brennstoffzelle
Kraftwerke, Übertragung, Speicher
Kernenergie
Erneuerbare Energieträger
Fossile EnergieträgerEnergieeinsparung
BMVIT
45
Ausgaben der Öffentlichen Hand für Energieforschung in Österreich: 1977 - 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
An
teil
in %
Energieeinsparung Fossile EnergieträgerErneuerbare Energieträger KernenergieKraftwerke, Übertragung, Speicher Wasserstoff & BrennstoffzelleQuerschnittsthemen
BMVIT
Kollektor- und Systempreisentwicklung von Solaranlagen zur Warmwasserbereitung in Österreich
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Eu
ro/m
² Ko
llekt
orf
läch
e 1.140
905
440535Kollektorpreis
Systempreis
Typische PV-Systempreise 1 kWpeak Anlagen, netzgekoppelt in Österreich
2.800
4.216
5.500
3.300
4.4004.984
5.765
6.5007.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
2008 2009 2010
Euro/kWpeak (exkl. MWSt.)
Unterer Wert Mittelwert Oberer Wert
Market Deployment of NewRenewable Energy Technologies
Market Deployment of NewRenewable Energy Technologies
Der Kollektor-Markt in Österreich: 1975 - 2011Jährlich installierte Kollektorfläche
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1989
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ko
llekt
orf
läch
e, m
²/Jah
r
Kunststoff-KollektorVakuumrohr-Kollektor
Verglaster Kollektor
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faningerseit 2007: EEG-TU Wien
Quelle: BMVIT 2012
In Österreich jährlich installierte Flachkollektor-Fläche1975 - 2011
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1989
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ko
llekt
orf
läch
e, m
²/Jah
r
Selbstbau-KollektorIndustriell gefertigter Kollektor
Erster Solar-BoomÖlpreis-Krise
Zweiter Solar-BoomBegünstigt durch"Treibhausgase"-Diskussion
Dritter Solar-BoomBegünstigt durch
markterprobte Technik und mit finanzieller Unterstützung
?
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faningerseit 2007: EEG-TU Wien
Quelle: BMVIT 2012
46
Installierte Kollektorfläche in Österreich: 1975 - 2011Kumulierte Werte
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1989
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Inst
allie
rte
Ko
llekt
orf
läch
e, m
² Kunststoff-AbsorberVakuum-KollektorVerglaster Kollektor
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard FaningerSeit 2007: AEE INTEC Quelle: BMVIT 2012
Photovoltaik-Markt in Österreich:1991 - 2011Jährlich installierte Leistung in kW (peak)
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
100.000
Inst
allie
rte
Leis
tung
, kW
(pea
k)/J
ahr
NetzgekoppeltAutark
Netzgekoppelt 187 159 107 133 245 365 452 541 1.030 1.044 4.094 6.303 3.755 2.711 1.290 2.061 4.553 19.961 42.695 90.984
Autark 338 85 167 165 133 104 201 200 256 186 127 169 514 250 274 55 133 248 207 690
bis 1992
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faningerseit 2007: EEG-TU Wien Quelle: BMVIT 2012
Photovoltaik-Markt in Österreich: 1992 - 2011Kumulierte installierte Leistung in kW (peak)
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
Inst
allie
rte
Lei
stu
ng
, kW
(pea
k)
NetzgekoppeltAutark
Netzgekoppelt 187 346 453 586 831 1.196 1.648 2.189 3.219 4.263 8.357 14.660 18.415 21.126 22.416 24.477 29.010 48.971 91.666 182.65
Autark 338 423 590 755 888 992 1.193 1.393 1.649 1.835 1.962 2.131 2.645 2.895 3.169 3.224 3.357 3.605 3.812 4.502
bis 1992
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faningerseit 2007: EEG-TU Wien Quelle: BMVIT 2012
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1.100.000
1.200.000
Nennwärmeleistung, kW
Marktentwicklung der Biomasse-Heizungen in Österreich Installierte Heizleistung pro Jahr
Großanlagen über 1 MW 130.613 71.400 124.950 221.810 336.500 320.430 197.900 105.900 115.750 67.800
Mittlere Anlagen 101 bis 1000 kW 70.272 66.407 93.885 90.002 222.400 226.946 157.663 195.191 193.250 151.480
Kleinanlagen bis 100 kW 359.211 318.838 348.708 388.364 539.670 603.328 345.742 615.496 597.748 515.019
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
560 MW
907 MW917 MW
701 MW
1.151 MW1.099 MW
700 MW
568 MW
457 MW
Grafik: Gerhard Faninger
734 MW
-1.000
1.000
3.000
5.000
7.000
9.000
11.000
13.000
15.000
17.000
19.000
21.000
23.000
25.000
Stückzahl pro Jahr
Marktentwicklung der Biomasse-Heizungen in Österreich Stückzahl pro Jahr
Großanlagen über 1 MW 54 26 36 43 78 82 88 57 52 32
Mittlere Anlagen 101 bis 1000 kW 301 223 332 369 653 777 522 639 652 531
Kleinanlagen bis 100 kW 12.590 11.160 11.895 13.487 18.808 21.353 11.806 22.602 21.304 17.998
2001 2002 2003 2.004 2.005 2.006 2.007 2.008 2.009 2.010
12.945
22.00823,298
12.416
22.212
19.539
13.899
12.26314.409
Grafik: Gerhard Faninger
18.561
Der Wärmepumpen-Markt in Österreich: 1975 - 2011 Jährlich installierte Anlagen
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
An
lag
en/J
ahr
SchwimmbadentfeuchtungWohnraumlüftungHeizungBrauchwasser
Quelle: BMVIT 2012
Phase 1
Phase 3
Phase 2
?
Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faningerseit 2007: EEG-TU Wien
47
Der Wärmepumpen-Markt in Österreich: 1975 - 2011Installierte Anlagen (kumulierte Werte)
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
An
lag
en
SchwimmbadentfeuchtungWohnraumlüftungHeizungBrauchwasser
Quelle: BMVIT 2012Source: 1975 - 2006: Gerhard Faninger
seit 2007: EEG-TU Wien
Marktentwicklung der Windkraft in Österreich
77 94139
415
606
819
965 982 995 995 1.011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Inst
allie
rte
Lei
stu
ng
, MW
Ende 2010Installierte Leistung: 1.011 MW
Installierte Anlagen: 625
IG Windkraft Grafik: Gerhard Faninger
Bruttoinlandsverbrauch fester Biobrennstoffe in den Jahren 2007 bis 2010 in Petajoule
Quellen: Biomasseverband (2009), ProPellets Austria (2011a), EEG (Hochrechnungen für 2008 bis 2010)
Source: IEA SHC, 2006
Worldwide Market Development of Solar Thermal Systems1999 - 2004
Worldwide Market Development of Solar Thermal Systems1999 - 2004
Yearly Installed Capacityof Glazed and evacuated tube collectors [MW/a]
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Inst
alle
dC
apac
ity[
MW
/a]
China + Taiwan
Europe
OthersAustralia + New Zealand
Japan
United States+Canada
IEA- SHC-2006
Entwicklung des weltweiten PV-Marktes
Quelle: IEA
48
Electricity Productionin Austria
Electricity Productionin Austria
Inländische Stromaufbringung in Österreich: 1960 - 2009
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
GW
h/J
ahr
WasserkraftWärmekraft
Sonst. Erneuerbare Energie
Quelle: E-Control
Stromzuwachs und Ökostromertrag
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GW
h/J
ahr
Stromzuwachs Ökostrom
Quelle: E-Control
Ökostromanteil an der Stromaufbringung und am Stromendverbrauch in Österreich: 2009 - 2010
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%/J
ahr
Ökostrom/Wasserkraft & Wärmekraft
Ökostrom/Stromendverbrauch
Renewable Energy Technologies in
Development and Demonstration
Oceanpower
49
Energy from OceanEnergy from OceanCommercial Available
• Tide-Power Stations
Under Development / Demonstration• Energy from Waves,
• Energy from Thermal GradientOTEC-Power Plants
Hydrogen&
Fuel Cells
Hydrogen&
Fuel Cells
Solar-Hydrogen Energy Economy The Vision of Solar-Hydrogen EconomyThe Vision of Solar-Hydrogen Economy
Function of Fuel Cell
50
Function of Fuel Cell Solar Electricity from the Desert
Solarthermal Powerplants– Tower- and Parabolic Collector-Concept -since 1981 under development and allready
available for the market.
European „Solar Desert Project“ in the planning phase
Goal of DESERTEC15% contribution to the European
Electricity Consumption 2050 - with solar electricity, produced in Sahara.
Estimated Investment Costs: 400 Billion Euro
Potentially Investors: Large firms in Europe
Fuel Cell & HydrogenFuel Cell & Hydrogen
Function of Fuel Cell Function of Fuel Cell
51
The Energy System of Tomorrow
The „Intelligent“ Energy System for Utilisation of
Renewable Energy Sources
Combination of Centralized and Dezentralized Systems
With Energy Management
The Energy System of TomorrowThe Energy System of TomorrowProduction
Grid
Distribution
Consumer
Production
Production
Heat and Electricityfrom Solar, Biomass,
PV, Wind⇓
⇓
⇓
The Energy System of Tomorrow ?The Energy System of Tomorrow ?
Solar City of Tomorrow ?An Example of TODAY
Solar City of Tomorrow ?An Example of TODAY
SOLAR CITY AMERSFOORT, NLSOLAR CITY AMERSFOORT, NL Management ofRenewable EnergyManagement of
Renewable Energy
52
En
erg
yS
ou
rce
En
erg
yS
ou
rce
En
erg
yD
eman
dE
ner
gy
Dem
and
Management of Fluctuating Energy Sourceand Energy Demand
Management of Fluctuating Energy Sourceand Energy Demand
Back-Up-System
Energy Storage
StratifiedStorage
Solar-Storages for Hot Water and Space HeatingSolar-Storages for Hot Water and Space Heating
Tank in TankBivalent Heat Storage
DensitySensible Heat Low
SolidLiquid
Latent Heat
SorptionThermochemical Heat High
CriteriasMaterial, Volume, Energy Density
ENERGY MANAGEMENT with STORAGEBalance between Energy Supply and Energy Demand
Storage-TypesShort-term, Mid-term, Long-term (Seasonal Storage)
• Sensible Heat
≈ 100 MJ/m³
• Latent Heat
≈ 300 - 500 MJ/m³
• Thermo-chemical Heat
≈ 1000 MJ/m³
Seasonal Storage for Solar HeatDevelopment of new Storage MaterialsSeasonal Storage for Solar Heat
Development of new Storage Materials
1 kg Water
0°C1 kg ice
0 °C1 kg Water
0 °C1 kg Water
80°C
335 kJ
Latent heat
335 kJ
Sensible heat
Heat Q
Temperature T
T1
Tmelt
T2
solid melting liquid
latent
sensiblesensible
53
Fig. 2: Principle PCM or chemical reaction storage
SENSIBLE HEATwater, ground, rock, ceramics
T = 60°C - 400 oC
PHASE-CHANGE•inorganic salts, inorganic and organic compounds; classical
examples :•Na2SO4 × 10 H20 +heat (24 oC) ↔ Na2SO4 + 10H20
•CaCla × 6 H20 (30 oC)•Paraffin (melting at 20°C - 60 oC)
CHEMICAL REACTIONS•S × n G +heat ↔ S × m G + (n-m) × G ; G (g) ↔ G(liqu)
G=working fluid/gas S=sorption material
Medium Temperature Capacity[C-deg] [kWh/m3]
Water DT=50 °C 60Rock 40
Na2SO4x10H20 24 70CaCl2x6H20 30 47
paraffine 20 - 60 56lauric acid 46 50
stearic acid 58 45pentaglycerine 81 59butyl stearate 19 39
propyl palmiate 19 52Silica gel N+H20 60 - 80 250
Zeolite 13 X +H20 100-180 180Zeolite + methanol 100 300
CaCl2 + ammonia 100 1000MeHx + H2 50 - 400 200 - 1500Na2S + H20 50 - 100 500
The Building of TomorrowThe Building Envelope as Collector and Seasonal-Storage
The Building of TomorrowThe Building Envelope as Collector and Seasonal-Storage
Sensible Heat≈ 100 MJ/m³
Latent Heat≈ 300 - 500 MJ/m³
Thermo-chemical Heat Storage
≈ 1000 MJ/m³
.
Friedrichshafen, Deutschland
Pit StoragePit Storage
12000 m³
5600 m² Collector Area
54
Storage for Photovoltaic ElectricityStorage for Photovoltaic Electricity
Grid-connected
Stand-alone
Present Contributionof Renewables
to Energy Supply and Forecast
Present Contributionof Renewables
to Energy Supply and Forecast
Beitrag von Erneuerbaren Energieträgern zum weltweiten Energieaufkommen 2009
Bio-Energie, Nachhaltig
42%
Wasserkraft17%
Geothermie, Solar, Wind
2%Bio-Energie, Nicht-nachhaltig *
39%
Beitrag von Erneuerbaren Energieträgern zum weltweiten Energieaufkommen 2009: 13%
* aus nicht-nachhaltiger Forstwirtschaft
Anteil erneuerbarer Energieträger am Energieaufkommen (TPES) in Europa 2004
5,8
21,3
1,5 2,9
13,7
22,9
5,93,9 5,2 3,6
70,7
1,85,9
1,1 1,9
40,1
4,9
14,2
3,76,2
24,7
14,9
1,30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EU-19
Austria
Belgium
Czech R
epub
licDen
mark
Finlan
dFra
nce
German
yGree
ce
Hunga
ry
Icelan
dIrla
nd Italy
Luxem
bourg
Netherla
nds
Norw
ayPo
land
Portu
gal
Slova
k Rep
ublic Sp
ain
Swed
en
Switze
rland
United
Kingdo
m
Ern
euer
bar
e E
ner
gie
/TP
ES
, %
IEA Statistics 2005
Anteil erneuerbarer Energieträger bei der Stromerzeugung in Europa 2004, %
13,7
65,0
1,7 3,0
24,429,3
11,3 9,2 9,82,8
99,9
5,5
17,5
6,8 5,4
99,4
1,9
27,2
13,719,2
45,8
54,6
3,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
EU-19
Austria
Belgium
Czech R
epub
licDen
mark
Finlan
dFra
nce
German
yGree
ce
Hunga
ry
Icelan
dIrla
nd Italy
Luxe
mbourg
Netherl
ands
Norway
Polan
d
Portu
gal
Slova
k Rep
ublic Sp
ain
Swed
en
Switze
rland
United
King
dom
Ant
eil
erne
uerb
arer
Ene
rgie
träg
er,
%
IEA Statistics 2005
14,9 15,1 16,9 18,215,1 14,8
62,9 65,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Sha
re o
f R
enew
able
s, %
OECD, Gesamt OECD, Europa OECD, Nord Amerika Österreich
Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energieträgernin OECD und in Österreich: 2003 and 2004
20032004
IEA Statistics 2005
55
Energy Scenarios??? Bad NewsBad News
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:Problems to be solved
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:Problems to be solved
Substitution of Fossil & Nuclear Energy Sources for Energy SupplyAbout 87% of the present worldwide Energy Supply!
Additional Energy Sourcesfor the expected increase of Energy Demand:
• Development of Population: From 6 billion to 15 billion or more in 2050 (?) •Increasing Energy Demand in Developing Countries
and countries in Transition (China, Asia, South Africa, Latin America…)•Additional Energy Demand for the production of New Energy Technologies,
including a new infrastructure,
World Total Primary Energy Supply 2009Fuel Shares of TPS
Renewables13%
Nuclear6%
Fossil81%
Welt-Primärenergie-Aufkommen 2009Anteile der Regionen
Mittlerer Osten4,8%
China17,4%
Nicht-OECD Europa0,9%
Asien11,5%
Lateinamerika4,7%
Afrika5,3%
World Marine Bunkers
2,7%
Ehemalige USSR8,5%
OECD44,2%
Gesamt 2008: 12.267 Mtoe= 513,58 EJ
IEA-World Energy Statistics 2010
Development of World-Population ?
56
Development of World-Population
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1700
1720
1740
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Bill
ion
Inh
abit
ants
World-Population, billion: 1800: 1; 1930: 2; 1960: 3; 1974: 4;
1987: 5; 1999: 6; 2011: 7; 2024: 8 (?); 2045: 9 (?); 2050: 10 billion (?).
Per Year 83Per Day 228.200
Per Minute 158Per second 2,6
Growth of World Population, million inhabitants2010
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:Tasks to be done
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:Tasks to be done
Fast Market Deployment of efficient, emission-free, economic and social acceptableRenewable Energy Technologies
Further Research, Development and Demonstration in the sectors of Energy-Efficiency and
New Renewable Energy Sources and Technologies
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:The Challenges
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:The Challenges
To meet a Sustainable Energy System until 2050 many actions have do be done.
„Business as Usual“ will not be the right way.
A Revolution in the Energy Economyis neccessary.
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:The Challenges
Towards a World-wide Future Sustainable Energy System:The Challenges
Hopefully, the time for the beginningof a Sustainable Energy Economy could beextended with expected, but undiscovered
Oil- and Gas-Recources and withthe existing Coal Recources in combination
with CO2-Storage until 2100.
IEA World-Energy ScenarioInternationaal Energy Agency
IEA World-Energy ScenarioInternationaal Energy Agency
Welt-Primärenergie-Aufkommen 2008Anteile der Energieträger
Wasserkraft2,2%
Biogene Energie10,0%
Geothermie, Solar, Wind u.a.
0,7%
Kernenergie5,8%
Kohle27,0%
Erdöl33,2%
Erdgas21,1%
Gesamt 2008: 12.267 Mtoe= 513,58 EJIEA-World Energy Statistics 2010
57
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2030450 Policy Scenario
Share of Fuels
Hydropower3,4%
Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Biomass,
etc.18,6%
Nuclear9,9%
Coal/Peat18,2%
Oil29,5%
Gas20,4%TOTAL 2030:
14 389 Mtoe= 602.43 EJIEA-World Energy Outlook 2010
World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)Share of Fuels
46,1
33,2 29,7 29,5
16
21,121,2 20,4
24,5
2729,1
18,2
5,8 5,7
9,9
3,4
10,7 10,7 11,918,6
0,92,42,21,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1973 2009 RS 2030 "450" 2030
Sha
re o
f Fu
els,
% Other RenewablesHydropowerNuclearCoal/PeatGasOil
Energy Scenarios with Priorityfor
Energy-Efficiency and Renewables
Energy Scenarios with Priorityfor
Energy-Efficiency and Renewables
Gerhard Faninger, 2011
World-Energy-Scenario 2050Priorities for Energy-Efficiency and RenewablesWorld-Energy-Scenario 2050
Priorities for Energy-Efficiency and Renewables
Data: 2002 (Starting Point)Energy Supply: 433,121 EJ; Renewables: 58,531 EJ
Share of Renewables: 13,3%Annual Production Capacity for Renewables: 1,8 EJ
Average Annual Growth of Energy Consumption (1970 – 2004): 2%/a
Assumption and Results for 2050Average Annual Growth of Energy Consumption: 1%/a and 2%/a
Average Annual Growth of Renewable Production : 5%/aShare of Renewables in 2050:
Energy ConsumptionGrowth 1%/a: 33,4%Energy ConsumptionGrowth 2%/a: 20,8%
WORLD Energy ScenarioPriority for Energy-Efficiency and Renewables
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
En
erg
y S
up
ply
, PJ/
a
Assumptions:Average Annual Growth-rate:
Energy Supply: 1%/a & 2%/a.Renewables Production-rate:
5%/a
Energy Supply
Growth-rate: +2%/a
Growth-rate: +1%/a
Renewables Supply
AUSTRIA Energy ScenarioPriority for Energy-Efficiency and Renewables
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
En
erg
a S
up
ply
, PJ/
a
Assumptions:Average Annual Growth-rate:
Energy Supply: 1%/a & 2%/a.Renewables Production-rate:
5%/a
Energy Supply
Growth-rate: +2%/a
Growth-rate: +1%/a
Renewables Supply
58
Energy Supply Energy Supply Share Annual CapacityTotal Renewables Renewables RenewablesEJ/a EJ/a % EJ/a
443 59 13,3 1,8
Energy Supply Renewables 2020 2030 2040 20505%/a 17,4 21,5 27,2 35,210%/a 22,4 40 77,3 100
0,5 - 1%/a
Share of Renewables to Energy Supply, %/a
WORLD
2,0%/a
Energy Scenario2003 ⇒ 2020 ⇒ 2030 ⇒ 2040 ⇒ 2050
Data 2003Average Annual Growth 1970 - 2004
Energy Supply, %/a Renewables, %/a ~2%/a
Assumptions and ResultsAnnual Average Grow-rate, %/a
Energy Supply Energy Supply Share Annual CapacityTotal Renewables Renewables RenewablesPJ/a PJ/a % PJ/a
1.395 305 21,9 13
Energy Supply Renewables 2020 2030 2040 20502,68%/a 25,7 28,4 31,4 34,75%/a 36,3 49,1 67,1 92,010%/a 48,8 95,1 100 100
1%/a 38,4 57,2 80,8 1002%/a 32,8 44,3 56,7 75
2,68 %/a
Share of Renewables to Energy Supply, %/a
AUSTRIA
1,66%/a
5%/a
Energy Scenario2003 ⇒ 2020 ⇒ 2030 ⇒ 2040 ⇒ 2050
Data 2003Average Annual Growth 1970 - 2004
Energy Supply, %/a Renewables, %/a1,66 %/a
Assumptions and ResultsAverage Annual Growth-rate, %/a
Assumptions:Average Annual Growth of Energy Consumption:
2%/a and 1%/a
Average Annual Growth of Renewable EnergyProduction Capacity: 5%/a
Austria: 77% ( =90%)OECD: 12% (19%)World: 21% (33%)
Results of Energy Scenarios for 2050Results of Energy Scenarios for 2050
Goal 2050:Total Substitution of Fossil Energy Sources
for Heating and Cooling in Buildings
The Austria Energy Strategy 2050 for the Energy Consumption in Buildings
The Austria Energy Strategy 2050 for the Energy Consumption in Buildings
Strategy 2050 for Heat Production in Buildings in Austria
82
86
103
85
38,24
51,12
34,39
32,11
6,854,97
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2050
En
d-u
se E
ner
gy,
PJ
Electricity
Ambient Heat
Solar Heat
Biomass
Gas
Oil
317 PJ
206 PJ
- 35%
25,9
27,1
32,5
2,21,610,8
41,2
18,5
24,8
15,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sh
are
to E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n in
%
2009 2050
Strategy 2050 for the Share of Energy Sources for Heat Production in Buildings in Austria
ElectricityAmbient HeatSolar HeatBiomassGasOil
100% 100%
Strategy 2050 for Heating of Buildings in Austria
2,67
21,44
5
3
27
5
0,312,080
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009 2050
En
du
se-E
ner
gy,
PJ
Electricity for Space Heat & Hot Water
Electricity for Cooling & E-Equipment
Electricity for Heat Pumps
Electricity for Solar Thermal Systems
34,39 PJ32,11 PJ Electricity Consumption
59
0,96,0
14,5
78,5
8,3
66,8
9,3
15,6
0
1020
304050
607080
90100
Sh
are,
%
2009 2050
Strategy 2050 for Electricity Consumption in Buildings in Austria
Electricity for Space Heat & Hot Water
Electricity for Cooling & E-Equipment
Electricity for Heat Pumps
Electricity for Solar Thermal Systems
100%100%
Energy Outlook
Worst-Case Scenario for Future Energy System(1) Fossil energy resources will not be available
for energy supply.(2) Climate change will not allow the utilisation of fossil resources
for energy production.(3) Further marketdeployment of nuclear power plants will bestopped because of nuclear accidents and problems with long-term
nuclear waste disposal.(4) Nuclear Fusion could not be realised for
Electricity production.(5) The market deployment of Renewables was not fast enough to
substitute fossil resources.Result: The „Fossil Energy Period“ was only a short time period of
about 200 years of Evolution.
Forecast of Energy SupplyForecast of Energy Supply
Renewable Energy Renewables &Nuclear Fusion ?
Fossil Energy
Nuclear Fission
NuclearFusionFossil
Energy
RenewableEnergy
Solar /Hydrogen
Year