economic indicators: february 1995 - fraser

104th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

FEBRUARY 1995(Includes data available as of March 7, 1995)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1995

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

CONNIE MACK, Florida, ChairmanJIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman

SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho)ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)RICK SANTORUM (Pennsylvania)RODNEY D. GRAMS (Minnesota)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESTHOMAS W. EWING (Illinois)JACK QUINN (New York)DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)MARSHALL (MARK) SANFORD (South Carolina)WILLIAM M. (MAC) THORNBERRY (Texas)FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)KWEISI MFUME (Maryland)

ROBERT N. MOTTICE, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

LAURA D. TYSON, ChairJOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, Member

MARTIN N. BAILY, Member-Nominee

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Comnvttee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreignmailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

For sale by the U.S. Government Printing OfficeSuperintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328

ISBN 0-16-046918-X


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTIn the fourth quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.8percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in 1987 dollars) rose 4.6 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.3percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

7,200

6,800

6,400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

^

xl

y

IN CURRGDPENTDOLLA

\\y

_ - _ -

i i i

1982

s/

/

/

i i I

1983

„ — " ~~

^

1 1 1

1984

'>

S'

i i i

1985

^

1 1 !

1986

.XIN

1 ! !

1987

r-cGDP

1987.DOLU

i i I

1988

^^RS

S

\RS

t i i

1989

f

_ .

i i i

1990

i i I

1991

^

„--'"

i i i

1992

I-""

- -" ~~

1 1 !

1993

^

.„.-•

i i i1994

7,200

6,800

6,400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198619871988198919901991199219931994 '1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV1990: IV1991: IV1992: IV1993- I

HIIIIV

1994: IIIIIIIV '

Grossdomesticproduct

4,268.64,539.94,900.45,250.85,546.15,724.86,020.26,343.36,736.13,195.13,547.33,869.14,140.54,336.64,683.05,044.65,344.85,597.95,796.66,169.36,235.96,299.96,359.26,478.16,574.76,689.96,791.76,888.1

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,850.63,052.23,296.13,523.13,761.23,902.44,136.94,378.24,628.02,128.72,346.82,526.42,739.82,923.13,124.63,398.23,599.13,836.63,955.74,251.34,294.64,347.34,401.24,469.64,535.04,586.44,657.54,732.9

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

717.6749.3793.6832.3808.9744.8788.3882.0

1,031.6464.2614.8722.8737.0697.1800.2814.8825.2756.4756.8822.0853.8869.7882.2922.5966.6

1,034.41,055.11,070.2

Exports and imports of goodsand services

Netexports

1325-143.1

1080-79.7-71.4

199-30.3

65 3-98.6-29.5-71.8

-107.1-135.5-133.2-143.2- 106.0-73.9-71.6-13.7-42.2-49.6

633-77.0-71.2-86.7

97 6-109.6-100.6

Exports

319.2364.0444.2508.0557.1601.1638.1659.1718.7265.6286.2308.7304.7333.9392.4467.0523.8577.6623.7649.2646.8660.1649.0680.3674.2704.5730.5765.6

Imports

451.7507.1552.2587.7628.5620.9668.4724.3817.3295.1358.0415.7440.2467.1535.6573.1597.7649.2637.5691.4696.4723.5726.0751.4760.9802.1840.1866.2

Government purchases

Total

833.0881.5918.7975.2

1,047.41,097.41,125.31,148.41,175.2

631.6657.6727.0799.2849.7901.4937.6994.5

1,076.51,097.91,138.11,137.11,146.31,152.91,157.21,159.81,166.71,188.81,185.5

Federal

Total

367.8384.9387.0401.6426.5445.8449.0443.6437.3281.4289.7324.7356.9373.1392.5392.0405.1436.5438.3454.8446.9445.2442.7439.8437.8435.1444.3431.8

Nationaldefense

276.7292.1295.6299.9314.0322.8314.2302.7292.2205.5222.8242.9268.6278.6295.8296.8302.5322.5311.6316.0307.0305.8299.0299.1291.7291.7300.5284.7

Non-defense

91.192.991.4

101.7112.5123.1134.8140.9145.175.966.981.988.394.596.795.2

102.6114.0126.6138.7139.9139.4143.6140.7146.1143.5143.8147.1

Stateandlocal

465.3496.6531.7573.6620.9651.6676.3704.7737.9350.3367.9402.2442.4476.6509.0545.7589.3640.0659.7683.3690.2701.2710.2717.4722.0731.5744.5753.7

Finalsales of

domesticproduct

4,260.04,513.74,884.25,217.55,539.35,726.66,017.26,327.96,684.23,241.43,527.13,818.14,107.94,355.44,623.75,027.35,314.65,621.85,782.36,160.06,215.86,281.46,345.46,469.26,550.66,622.56,729.16,834.5

Grossdomestic

pur-chases 1

4,401.24,683.05,008.45,330.55,617.55,744.76,050.56,408.66,834.73,224.63,619.13,976.24,276.04,469.84,826.25,150.75,418.75,669.55,810.46,211.46,285.56,363.36,436.36,549.36,661.46,787.56,901.36,988.7

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

4,277.74,544.54,908.25,266.85,567.85,740.86,025.86,347.8

3,222.63,578.43,890.24,156.24,340.54,690.55,054.35,365.05,630.05,810.76,167.06,243.96,303.36,367.86,476.26,574.06,682.56,779.6

1 GDP less exports of goods and sen-ices plus imports of goods and sen-ices. Source: Department of Com , Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1987 DOLLARS[Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198619871988198919901991199219931994 '

1982- IV1983- IV1984- IV1985- IV1986- IV1987- IV1988- IV1989- IV1990- IV1991: IV1992- IV

1993: I ..IIIllIV

1994- IIIinIV r.


4,404.54,539.94,718.64,838.04,897.34,867.64,979.35,134.55,342.4

3,759.64,012.14,194.24,333.54,427.14,625.54,779.74,856.74,867.24,880.85,060.7

5,075.35,105.45,139.45,218.0

5,261.15,314.15,367.05,427.2

Personaleon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,969.13,052.23,162.43,223.33,272.63,259.43,349.53,458.73,579.5

2,539.32,678.22,784.82,895.33,012.53,074.73,202.93,242.03,265.93,265.33,403.4

3,417.23,439.23,472.23,506.2

3,546.33,557.83,584.73,629.1

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonre-sidential

fixedinvest-ment

500.3497.8530.8540.0546.5515.4525.9591.6671.9

417.2449.6509.6525.5495.5510.6538.8536.7540.2506.9540.9

560.3581.0597.9627.2

643.6657.9680.0705.9

Resi-dentialfixed

invest-ment

226.2225.2222.7214.2194.5169.5196.9213.0231.1

131.2190.6198.8207.4230.5223.3225.3208.0176.3177.5207.7

210.4206.3211.0224.5

229.9233.8230.2230.6

Changein

busi-ness

inven-tories

8.526.319.929.85.7

-1.12.5

15.347.4

-44.929.347.930.2

-20.159.920.924.9

-20.913.56.6

18.518.913.010.8

25.459.257.148.1

Exports and imports ofgoods and sen-ices

Netexports

-155.1-143.1-104.0-73.7-54.7-19.5

32 3-73.9

-110.6

-19.083 7

-131.4155 4

- 156.0136 0

- 102.767 4

-36.8-16.9-38.5

576-69.3-86.3-82.2

1040-111.8

1170-109.6

Ex-ports

329.6364.0421.6471.8510.5542.6578.8602.5656.9

280.4291.5312.8312.0342.9386.1438.2487.7520.4562.6590.7

589.2600.2595.3625.2

619.6643.9666.5697.8

Im-ports

484.7507.1525.7545.4565.1562.1611.2676.3767.5

299.4375.1444.2467.4498.9522.1540.9555.0557.2579.4629.3

646.8669.6681.6707.4

723.6755.6783.5807.4


Total

855.4881.5886.8904.4932.6944.0936.9929.8923.0

735.9748.1784.3830.5864.8893.0894.5912.6942.4934.4940.6

926.5929.3931.8931.5

919.9917.1932.0923.0

Federal

Total

373.0384.9377.3376.1384.1386.7373.5356.6337.8

316.0322.2341.7363.7377.5391.6378.4376.1386.5374.1377.0

361.6358.3355.6351.1

341.7334.7343.5331.2

Nationaldefense

280.6292.1287.0281.4283.6281.4261.4243.7226.6

229.4242.9254.3272.1282.2295.0285.7281.5285.7265.8262.4

248.2246.8240.9238.7

228.5226.1233.0219.0

Non-defense

92.492.990.294.8

100.4105.3112.2113.0111.2

86.679.387.491.695.396.692.794.7

100.8108.2114.6

113.3111.5114.7112.4

113.2108.7110.5112.3

Stateandlocal

482.4496.6509.6528.3548.5557.2563.3573.1585.2

419.9425.9442.6466.7487.3501.4516.1536.5555.8560.4563.6

564.9571.0576.2580.4

578.3582.4588.5591.8

Finalsales of

domesticproduct

4,395.94,513.74,698.64,808.34,891.64,868.74,976.95,119.35,294.9

3,804.53,982.84,146.24,303.34,447.24,565.64,758.74,831.84,888.04,867.35,054.1

5,056.85,086.55,126.55,207.2

5,235.75,254.95,310.05,379.1

Grossdomestic

pur-chases '

4,559.64,683.04,822.64,911.74,951.94,887.25,011.65,208.45,452.9

3,778.64,095.84,325.54,488.94,583.14,761.54,882.44,924.14,904.04,897.65,099.2

5,132.95,174.75,225.85,300.2

5,365.15,425.85,484.05,536.8

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

4,413.54,544.54,726.34,852.74,916.54,882.34,985.75,140.3

3,791.74,046.64,216.44,349.54,430.84,633.04,789.04,875.14,895.44,893.95,061.0

5,083.95,110.15,148.45,218.7

5,262.75,310.55,359.9

1 GDP less exports of goods and sen-ices plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT[1987=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

19861987198819891990 . .1991199219931994r

1982- IV1983: IV1984- IV1985: IV1986- IV1987: IV1988- IV1989: IV1990: IV1991- IV1992: IV

1993: InIIIrv

1994: III .HIIV '


96.9100.0103.9108.5113.3117.6120.9123.5126.1

85.088.492.395.598.0

101.2105.5110.1115.0118.8121.9

122.9123.4123.7124.1

125.0125.9126.5126.9

Personal consumptionexpenditures

Total

96.0100.0104.2109.3114.9119.7123.5126.6129.3

83.887.690.794.697.0

101.6106.1111.0117.5121.1124.9

125.7126.4126.8127.5

127.9128.9129.9130.4

Durablegoods

96.9100.0102.0104.2105.7107.3108.9109.8111.2

90.693.394.495.997.8

101.0103.1104.9106.1107.8109.1

109.2109.8110.0110.2

110.5111.1111.7111.4

Nondura-ble goods

96.1100.0103.7109.3115.9120.0122.5124.2125.7

89.491.894.297.096.3

101.5105.6110.8119.2120.8123.3

124.0124.2123.9124.6

124.6125.1126.3126.6

Services

95.7100.0105.1110.6116.7122.5127.7132.3136.3

79.083.787.792.997.3

101.9107.1112.7119.2124.5129.8

130.8131.9132.7133.8

134.4135.9137.0138.0

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dentialfixed

98.4100.0102.8105.2107.3108.1106.7104.1103.7

95.395.096.497.399.2

100.7104.0106.0108.2107.3106.0

105.3104.9103.5103.0

103.4103.9104.3103.4

Residen-tial fixed

95.8100.0104.2107.8110.7111.9113.7117.6122.3

86.088.090.793.197.3

101.5105.3108.8111.1111.9115.1

115.9117.2118.2119.0

120.5121.3123.1124.4

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Exports

96.9100.0105.3107.7109.1110.8110.2109.4109.4

94.798.298.797.797.4

101.6106.6107.4111.0110.9109.9

109.8110.0109.0108.8

108.8109.4109.6109.7

Imports

93.2100.0105.1107.8111.2110.5109.4107.1106.5

98.595.493.694.293.6

102.6106.0107.7116.5110.0109.9

107.7108.1106.5106.2

105.2106.1107.2107.3


Federal

Total

98.6100.0102.6106.8111.0115.3120.2124.4129.4

89.089.995.098.198.8

100.2103.6107.7112.9117.2120.6

123.6124.2124.5125.3

128.1130.0129.3130.4

Nationaldefense

98.6100.0103.0106.6110.7114.7120.2124.2128.9

89.691.795.598.798.7

100.3103.9107.5112.9117.2120.4

123.7123.9124.1125.3

127.7129.0129.0130.0

Non-defense

98.6100.0101.4107.3112.0116.9120.2124.7130.5

87.784.393.796.499.2

100.1102.6108.4113.1117.0121.1

123.5125.0125.2125.1

129.1132.0130.1131.0

Stateand local

96.4100.0104.3108.6113.2116.9120.1123.0126.1

83.486.490.994.897.8

101.5105.7109.9115.2117.7121.2

122.2122.8123.3123.6

124.9125.6126.5127.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


CHANGES IN GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, ANDRELATED IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND PRICE INDEXES

[Percent change from preceding year or quarter; qunrterlv data at scasonallv adjusted animal rates]

Period

1981 ..19821983 ..19841985 ..19861987 ..19881989 .19901991 ..19921993 .1994"1990- III

IV1991- I

IIIIIIV

1992: IIIIIIIV

1993- IIIIIIIV

1994- IIIIIIIV '

Gross domestic product

Currentdollars

11.93.98.1

10.96.95.76.47.97.25.63.25.25.46.23.11.02.85.03.82.67.15.24.98.64.44.23.87.76.17.26.25.8

Constant(1987) dollars

1.8-2.2

3.96.23.22.93.13.92.51.2

-.62.33.14.0-.9

-3.2-2.1

2.21.0.1

3.12.43.55.71.22.42.76.33.34.14.04.6

Implicit pricedeflator

10.06.24.14.43.72.63.23.94.44.43.82.82.22.14.04.35.02.82.82.73.82.71.32.73.31.61.01.32.92.91.91.3

Fixed-weightedprice index

(1987 weights)

3.93.43.52.83.14.04.54.64.03.23.02.74.73.85.13.13.32.73.93.32.72.84.22.42.02.43.12.93.02.6

Personal consumption expenditures

Currentdollars

10.26.99.69.08.46.97.18.06.96.83.86.05.85.78.33.7.5

4.74.33.09.35.45.69.74.15.05.16.46.04.66.36.6

Constant(Him dollars

1.21.14.64.84.43.62.83.61.91.5

42.83.33.52.12 7

-2.82.11.3

-.55.81.73.95.61.62.63.94.04.71.33.15.0

Implicit pricedeflator

9.05.74.93.93.93.14.24.24.95.14.23.22.52.16.16.73.42.43.13.43.33.71.63.92.62.21.32.21.33.23.11.5

Fixed-weightedprice index

(1987 weights)

8.65.44.33.73.83.04.14.35.05.34.43.52.82.56.37.03.62.83.33.63.73.83.53.02.92.61.42.81.92.83.62.3


NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19861987 . ..1988198919901991199219931982: IV1983- IV1984: IV ..1985- IV1986- IV1987- IV1988- IV1989- IV1990- IV1991: IV .1992- IV1993- I

IIinrv ..

1994- III .. . . .Ill ...

Gross domestic productof nonfinaneial

corporate business(billions of dollars)

Currentdollars

2,386.32,547.32,764.82,913.53,045.53,089.73,222.93,409.7

1,806.32,037.22,228.22,338.82,422.82,627.62,843.22,951.53,052.53,125.93,307.8

3,324.43,386.33,428.73,499.3

3,568.63,626.73,679.4

1987dollars

2,439.32,547.32,684.82,718.92,747.42,716.72,802.82,942.9

1,999.62,204.22,328.42,396.92,463.32,604.02,719.02,722.72,725.02,740.92,870.2

2,868.42,920.52,963.33,019.5

3,062.63,098.93,131.2

Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) '

Totalcost andprofit2

0.9781.0001.0301.0721.1091.1371.1501.159

.903

.924

.957

.976

.9841.0091.0461.0841.1201.1401.152

1.1591.1591.1571.159

1.1651.1701.175

Consump-tion offixed

capital

0.111.110.111.117.120.126.126.123.119.119.111.110.112.110.112.120.123.125.123

.124

.123

.124

.120

.125

.121

.122

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.095.095.096.101.106.115.117.117.086.088.091.093.095.094.097.102.109.117.118

.117

.117

.116

.117

.117

.117

.118

Compen-sation of

employees

0.648.658.676.706.736.756.767.768.607.602.623.643.654.664.687.718.748.760.768

.776

.770

.766

.760

.763

.766,768

Netinterest

0.040.042.045.054.054.049.041.039.040.036.041.038.042.042.047.055.054.047.038

.039

.039

.039

.038

.038

.039

.040

Corporate profits with inventoryvaluation and capital consumption

adjustments

Total

0.084.096.102.094.093.092.099.112.051.079.091.092.081.099.102.088.085.092.107

.102

.111

.113

.123

.122

.127

.127

Profitstax

liability

OX)31.037.038.037.034.031.03).040.020.029.027

' .030.035.038.040.033.034.031.033

.037

.040

.038

.043

.043

.046

.047

Profitsaftertax *

0.053.059.064.057.059.061.067.073.030.050.064.063.045.060.063.055.052.061.073

.065

.071

.075

.080

.078

.081

.080

Outputper hour

of allemployees

(1987dollars)

22.73323.12723.57223.18923.44623.92624.64825.379

21.07021.89322.05522.34622.89123.35623.52123.14623.54924.21125.085

24.96225.23925.51625.810

26.01825.92326.054

Compen-sation per

hour ofall

employees(dollars)

14.73915.20715.83316.37717.24618.08118.91619.483

12.79113.18613.73214.35914.97515.51716.06916.61617.62318.40019.254

19.36519.43219.53919.608

19.85519.85220.012

1 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinaneial corporate business in 1987 dollars. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business with 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,

the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analvsis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1988198919901991199219931994 '1982- IV1983- IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987- IV1988: IV1989- IV1990: IV1991- IV1992: IV1993- I

IImrv

1994- III ...mIV r....

Nationalincome

4,002.64,249.54,491.04,608.24,829.55,131.4

2,551.52,834.33,134.43,341.93,486.03,828.84,127.64,305.24,539.24,663.94,964.95,031.15,094.05,138.55,262.05,308.75,430.75,494.9

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees1

2,921.33,100.23,297.63,404.83,591.23,780.44,004.61,940.42,101.22,288.12,442.52,582.52,785.13,004.93,162.83,344.23,459.13,671.03,713.13,761.13,801.73,845.83,920.03,979.34,023.74,095.6

Proprietors' incomewith inventory

valuation and capitalconsumptionadjustments

Farm

30.940.241.936.744.437.339.410.26.3

21.917.823.642.430.938.443.836.646.049.639.415.844.447.239.329.841.4

Nonfarm

293.4307.0321.4339.5374.4404.3434.2169.6193.8217.7250.9260.9282.6302.5311.4325.1349.8392.4394.8399.4404.5418.5423.8431.9437.1443.8

Rentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjust-ment

4.3-13.5-14.2-10.5-5.524.127.724.122.224.314.04.76.82.8

-21.6-11.1-8.1

5.116.523.426.330.315.334.132.628.8

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments

Total

365.0362.8380.6390.3405.1485.8

150.3229.1261.3284.9264.6343.3378.3354.5362.8394.7432.5442.5473.1493.5533.9508.2546.4556.0

Profits with inventory valuationadjustment and without capital

consumption adjustment

Total

320.3325.4354.7370.9389.4456.2

160.0216.2223.6228.0225.0293.4340.5320.6349.3372.3415.6421.5446.6461.7495.1471.2509.0518.5

Profitsbefore tax

347.5342.9365.7365.2395.9462.4

168.6223.8220.1231.8235.7311.2372.2334.1368.9373.1413.5432.7456.6458.7501.7483.5523.1538.1

Inventoryvaluationadjust-ment

-27.3-17.5— 11.0

5.8-6.4-6.2

-19.3-8.6-7.6

3.5-3.8

-10.7-17.8-31.7-13.5-19.5

-.82.1

-11.2-10.0

3.0-6.5

-12.3-14.1-19.6-31.2

Capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

44.737.425.919.415.729.537.796

12.937.756.939.649.937.933.913.522.416.921.026.531.738.837.037.437.538.8

Netinterest

387.7452.7463.7447.4420.0399.5

256.8281.8321.1331.9349.7368.6408.1459.8474.4431.8418.0414.6397.6396.7389.1394.2399.7415.7

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1987 DOLLARS[Billions of 1987 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1988198919901991199219931994r

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV1990: IV1991: IV1992: IV

1993: IninIV

1994: IninIV '.....

Totalpersonal

consump-tion

expendi-tures

3,162.43,223.33,272.63,259.43,349.53,458.73,579.52,539.32,678.22,784.82,895.33,012.53,074.73,202.93,242.03,265.93,265.33,403.4

3,417.23,439.23,472.23,506.2

3,546.33,557.83,584.73,629.1

Durable goods

Totaldurablegoods

428.7440.7443.1425.3•452.6489.9532.0272.3319.1347.7369.6415.7404.7439.2436.8433.2427.7468.8

472.5483.7492.7510.8

521.7522.2529.6554.6

Motorvehicles

andparts

194.8196.4192.7170.0181.8196.1208.2123.7151.6164.3173.9193.6183.6197.7188.3182.1171.6188.2

189.7195.1195.0204.7

213.7205.3202.0212.0

Furni-ture andhouse-Ma

equip-ment

155.4165.8171.6179.2193.3214.1238.6

96.4109.3118.7128.6141.4145.9160.3167.9172.3181.2202.0

205.2209.9216.6224.6

225.9232.5241.7254.3

Other

78.578.578.776.177.579.785.252.358.164.867.180.775.281.280.578.874.978.6

77.678.781.181.5

82.084.486.088.3

Nondurable goods

Totalnondura-ble goods

1,035.11,051.61,060.71,047.71,057.71,078.51,109.6

880.7915.2942.9968.7

1,000.91,014.61,046.81,058.91,057.51,040.41,074.2

1,070.01,074.31,081.71,088.0

1,098.31,104.31,113.41,122.4

Food

513.4515.0523.9518.8514.7524.0535.7458.3467.1475.1488.2496.9502.4518.0515.6525.8514.9522.0

520.7522.3525.1528.1

531.9536.1535.7538.8

Clothingand

shoes

178.9187.8186.2184.7193.2197.8208.8135.7147.7154.7161.7171.9174.5182.8190.9184.5182.8198.7

194.0196.1198.6202.4

203.8204.9210.2216.5

Gasolineand m\

86.187.386.483.185.686.587.373.476.979.079.584.685.487.588.684.682.486.0

86.185.787.586.686.186.788.088.5

Fueloil and

coal

12.011.410.510.711.212.111.910.511.411.111.412.411.912.012.09.5

10.711.3

12.011.812.212.2

13.411.411.711.1

Other

244.7250.2253.8250.5253.0258.2265.9202.8212.2222.9228.0235.2240.4246.4251.8253.1249.7256.3

257.2258.3258.4258.8

263.1265.1267.8267.5

Services

Totalservices l

1,698.51,731.01*768.81,786.31,839.11,890.31,937.91,386.21,443.91,494.21,557.11,595.81,655.51,716.91,746.31,775.21,797.31,860.4

1,874.81,881.21,897.81,907.4

1,926.31,931.41,941.81,952.1

Housing

461.8469.2474.6479.0485.2492.6501.3411.0419.7431.3438.1444.8457.0465.6471.3475.9481.4487.8

489.8491.5493.7495.4

497.7500.0502.6505.0

Medicalcare

399.4408.6424.6437.7454.3466.4479.0327.8334.8344.9359.1372.0390.7403.0411.8429.4444.7459.0

463.1464.3467.6470.4

473.2477.4481.0484.2

Retail sales of newpassenger cars

(millions of units)

Domes-tics

7.57.16.96.16.36.77.36.07.47.77.07.76.67.56.26.66.16.4

6.46.96.77.1

7.47.27.17.4

Imports

3.12.82.62.32.12.02.02.52.62.63.13.43.33.02.62.42.22.0

2.02.12.01.9

2.02.02.01.8

1 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $50.1 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $42.7 billion in December.The January change was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to several Federal transfer payment programs, byincreased Earned Income Credits, and by pay raises for Federal civilian and military personnel. The January changewas reduced by program changes affecting personal contributions for social insurance, by a decrease in farmsubsidy payments, and by retroactive social security benefits payments that had boosted December personalincome. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $43.2 billion in January.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE]

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

7,000

6,000

1987 1988 1989

• TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

\WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

OTHER INCOME

ITRANSFER PAYMENTS

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

4001995

COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19861987198819891990199119921993 ..1994 r

1994- JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOct 'Nov *Dec '

1995- Janp

Totalpersonalincome

3,590.43,802.04,075.94,380.34,673.84,860.35,154.35,375.15,701.95,483.95,576.05,607.55,639.45,665.45,674.95,704.45,730.65,768.45,844.95,842.55,885.25,935.3

Wage andsalary

disburse-ments *

2,105.42,261.22,443.02,586.42,745.02,816.12,974.83,080.83,279.03,198.23,206.73,220.13,241.43,263.43,267.03,282.63,289.03,310.23,351.63,349.53,368.83,399.0

Other laborincome 1 z

200.7210.4230.5251.9274.3299.0328.7355.3381.0371.4373.2375.0376.7378.4380.1381.9383.7385.5387.1388.7390.3391.8

Proprietors' income 3

Farm

22.331.330.940.241.936.744.437.339.443.149.548.846.938.832.330.029.630.048.934.840.635.8

Noofarm

261.5279.0293.4307.0321.4339.5374.4404.3434.2418.2424.3429.0430.2432.1433.5434.4437.6439.4441.3443.5446.6449.8

Rentalincome ofpersons *

8.73.24.3

13 5-14.2

105-5.524.127.7

-27.034.638.435.034.632.632.432.632.731.229.325.926.3

Personaldividendincome

104.7100.4108.4126.5144.4150.5161.0181.3194.3184.5185.4187.1189.9191.8193.4195.1197.0198.8200.8202.8204.4204.8

Personalinterestincome

531.7548.1583.2668.2698.2695.1665.2637.9664.3627.9631.1634.4642.0649.3656.9665.1674.0683.6693.1702.5711.6720.8

Transferpayments 5

517.8542.2576.7625.0687.6770.1860.2915.4963.4943.2947.4951.5955.9957.1960.0964.9969.8972.3977.0977.5984.4

1,000.4

Less: Personalcontributions

for socialinsurance

162.1173.6194.5211.4224.9236.2248.7261.3281.4275.7276.2276.9278.5280.2280.9282.0282.6284.1286.2286.1287.5293.4

Nonfarmpersonalincome 6

3,545.63,749.44,023.94,318.04,608.64,801.85,089.45,316.65,639.75,418.65,504.35,536.45,570.15,604.05,619.95,651.65,678.15,715.55,772.85,784.45,821.05,875.8

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions lor social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.

^Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,

and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in 1987 dollars rose again in the fourthquarter of 1994.

BIlilONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)5,5005,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE|

COLLARS* (RATIO SCALE]

2,500

DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE]20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

CURRENT DOLLARS\ — —

1982

_ _ ^

^

\ \ i

1983

^

i i i

1984

^ -

1985

«•» **" *~ ~~^_

1986

p— 1

1 1 i

1987

r\987 DOLLA

i i i

1988

P*

i \ \

1989i i i1990

. —

i i i

1991

—• '

^

1992

i i i

1993

-----

-

1994

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000


Period

19871988.19891990.19911992.19931994 r.

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV1990: IV1991: IV1992: IV1993: I

nm....IV

1994: Inm ...IV r...

Personalincome

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

F 1

Disposable

income

Less:Persona]outlays '

Equals:Personalsaving

Billions of dollars

3,802.04,075.94,380.34,673.84,860.35,154.35,375.15,701.9

512.5527.7593.3623.3623.7648.6686.4742.1

3,289.53,548.23,787.04,050.54,236.64,505.84,688.74,959.8

3,147.53,392.53,634.93,880.64,025.04,257.84,496.24,756.1

142.0155.7152.1170.0211.6247.9192.6203.7

Dispos-able

persona]income in

1987dollars

(billions)

3,289.53)404.33,464.9

3)538.53,'648.13,704.13',836.1

Per capitadisposable personal

income

Currentdollars

1987dollars

Per capita personalconsumptionexpenditures

Currentdollars

1987dollars

Dollars

13,54514,47715,30716,20516,76617,63618,15319,004

13,54513,89014,00514,10114,00314,27914,34114,698

12,56813)44814,24115,04815,44416,19216,95117,732

12,56812)90313,02913)09312,899

13)39113)715

Percentchange inreal percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersona]income

Percent

—0.12.5.8.7

— .72.0.4

2.5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

2,746.82,965.83,242.53,456.73,647.83,918.54,195.24,469.44,759.14,934.25,335.0

5,255.55,364.55,395.95,484.6

5,555.85,659.95,734.55,857.5

372.1371.6413.4448.8478.5528.6542.0605.1625.2631.2676.2

657.3685.9695.4707.0

723.0746.4744.1754.9

2,374.72,594.32,829.13,007.93,169.33,389.93,653.23,864.34,133.94,303.04,658.8

4,598.24,678.64,700.54,777.6

4,832.84,913.54,990.35,102.6

2,190.92,417.92,606.52,828.73,018.23,220.13,496.73,715.53,957.74,078.44,371.4

4,413.74,464.64,518.24,588.2

4,657.34,712.44,787.04,867.5

183.8176.3222.6179.2151.1169.8156.4148.8176.2224.6287.4

184.6214.0182.3189.4175.5201.1203.3235.1

2,832.62,960.63,118.53,178.73,266.23,335.83,443.13,480.93,519.03,552.13,729.6

3,658.93,701.33,708.43,747.83,779.23,811.53,840.93,912.6

10,18911,03311,92512,56513,12113,90714,85015,55816,46716,95718,154

17,87418,14118,17418,421

18,58818,85319,09519,476

12,15412,59113,14513,27813,52213,68513,99614,01514,01813,99814,533

14,22214,35114,33814,451

14,53514,62514,69714,934

9,1349,980

10,64911,44512,10112,81913,81414,49115,28315,58816,566

16,69316,85617,01717,233

17,44317,59817,82118,065

10,89511,39011,73912,09512,47212,61513,02013,05313,01012,86813,262

13,28313,33513,42513,519

13,64013,65113,71713,852

-0.57.21.01.8

-1.75.23.21.8

-1.7.7

9.3-8.3

3.7— .43.22.32.52.06.6

4.34.44.04.25.05.54.14.1

7.76.87.96.04.85.04.33.94.35.26.24.04.63.94.03.64.14.14.6

Population,includingArmedForces

overseas(thou-

sands) 2

242,860245,093247,397249,951252,688255,484258,290260,991

233,060235,146237,231239,387241,550243,745246,004248,372251,035253,758256,626

257,262257,908258,635259,356

259,997260,627261,340262,000

' Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer pay-ments to rest of the world (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter of 1994, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $15.9 billion (annual rate)and net farm income rose $13.9 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALEI240200

160

120

240200

160

40

20

10

2

^ ^-

\\ 'x\ '

\J

1 J J

1982

^sX

^

1 l\ i1 1 \i\ 1 *1 1II1

i i i1983

f

' V '1

1 1 1

1984

^

/*/ \

sj

1985

"C^

3ROSS FAR

\ ' V\'

1 1 1

1986

r- ^O ^

M INCOME

V '\ /

\^ — /

\/N

NET FARM INCOME

i i i1987

t 1 !

1988

r '

'--*/

i i i1989

^

i i i

1990

- -

s __ /

^S

i i i1991

/

i i i1992

-N ,

i \ \1993

r "

/ •X\/

1994

80

60

40

20

10

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1984198519861987198819891990199119921993

1992- IHTITrv

1993: InmIV

1994: Inm''

Income of farm operators from farming

Gross farm income

Total !

168.0161.2156.1168.5175.8192.8198.2192.3200.2201.4

200.3198.8202.0199.8

203.4202.6198.3202.8

211.7201.1217.0

Cash marketing receipts

Total

142.8144.1135.4141.8151.2161.1170.0168.8171.2175.1

165.2167.7181.2170.7

172.6175.4186.0167.6

178.0170.9196.2

Livestock andproducts

72.969.871.676.079.484.189.886.786.490.6

82.487.289.686.2

84.288.4

101.987.890.081.897.3

Crops

69.974.363.865.971.777.080.182.184.984.5

82.880.491.784.5

88.487.184.179.8

88.089.198.8

Value ofinventorychanges 2

6.02 3

-2.223

-3.44.83.4

34.3

-3.6

5.45.04.02.9

-6.55 1

-6.03.0

6.66.14.9

Productionexpenses

141.9132.4125.1128.8137.8144.9151.3151.2150.1158.0

147.4149.7151.5152.0

155.1157.5159.5160.0

159.3161.8163.8

Net farm income

Currentdollars

26.128.831.139.738.047.946.941.150.143.4

52.949.250.547.8

48.345.038.942.8

52.439.353.2

1987 dollars "

28.730.532.039.736.644.141.435.041.435.1

44.140.741.739.2

39.336.531.434.5

41.931.242.1

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the GDP implicit price deflator.

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1991 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to annual

data in table.

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter of 1994, corporate profits before tax rose $15.0 billion (annual rate). In the second quarter,profits had risen $39.6 billion, largely reflecting a rebound from the first-quarter effects of the Californiaearthquake.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

SEASONAIiY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES /

J\

TS BEFORE

V./

/•— , / for

x.

~ . _

— .

~-

1 1 1

1982

J

S """ '/

/

-••-**

/'• s'-'f

\ 1 11983

"" —

'"V^

! 1 !

1984

—/->

^ — -~ ~" \

S'- •»

i \ 1

1985

M7

y

X - -Z?"

\ ,'

1 1 1

1986

ss

/ ^.~._s'

s

'<~/ \'UNDISTRI

! 1 1

1987

3FITS AFTER

V^ S

'^•-"*

iUTED PRO

i i i1988

FAY ^ '

[\ /"~^V

TAX

S

>• J>

•^^

\

\N

N--

ITS

i i i1989

s

s/

-•"""•-

**

I 1 1

1990

\~^

/

AX LIABILIT\

__>_.

/

1991

f

f'\ 1*\l

1-. f

' V

S \\ -

V

1992

/

^ S

/'

/•-•'

f ,/

-'

i i i1993

-y

-

-

s-/

_

_ /

S

-

i i I1994

660

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1986 ..198719881989 ..19901991 ..19921993..1994"

1982: IV1983- IV1984: FV1985- IV1986: IV1987: IV1988- IV1989: IV1990- IV1991: IV .-... . .1992- IV

1993: Inmrv

1994: IIIinrv *

Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l

Total2

227.6273.4320.3325.4354.7370.9389.4456.2

160.0216.2223.6228.0225.0293.4340.5320.6349.3372.3415.6

421.5446.6461.7495.1

471.2509.0518.5

Domestic industries

Total

194.6233.9271.2266.0286.7302.4328.8391.0

130.8182.6192.9193.5192.5246.3285.9254.8273.8301.4361.0

354.0383.8392.6433.4

410.1448.2458.1

Finan-cial

35.836.441.850.665.784.381.9

103.7

23.022.120.329.034.739.446.152.566.684.686.7

95.9100.1103.9114.6

89.6106.4112.6

Nonflnancial

Total3

158.9197.5229.4215.3221.1218.1246.9287.3

107.8160.5172.6164.5157.8207.0239.7202.3207.2216.8274.3

258.0283.7288.7318.8

320.5341.8345.5

Manu-facturing

59.087.0

117.5108.0109.190.194.5

114.2

50.190.579.283.363.998.7

129.394.598.585.3

101.3

96.2114.2112.4134.2

145.1143.0143.3

Whole-sale and

retailtrade

46.339.937.139.737.246.754.861.2

33.840.750.839.043.139.339.339.236.247.464.6

56.063.362.063.7

59.072.070.1

Profitsbefore

tax

217.8287.9347.5342.9365.7365.2395.9462.4

168.6223.8220.1231.8235.7311.2372.2334.1368.9373.1413.5

432.7456.6458.7501.7

483.5523.1538.1

Taxliability

106.5127.1137.0141.3138.7131.1139.7173.2

58.782.283.897.6

116.6135.2146.2134.2137.0133.1148.6

159.8171.8169.9191.5

184.1201.7208.6

Profits after tax

Total

1H.3160.8210.5201.6227.1234.1256.2289.2

109.9141.6136.3134.2119.2176.0226.0200.0231.8240.0264.8

273.0284.8288.9310.2

299.4321.4329.5

Dividends

109.8106.2115.3134.6153.5160.0171.1191.7205.2

72.584.283.497.4

111.0106.3121.0141.3153.7160.9182.1

188.2190.7193.2194.6

196.3202.5207.9213.9

Undistrib-uted

profits

1.654.695.267.173.674.185.197.5

37.557.452.936.98.2

69.7105.058.778.179.182.7

84.794.195.6

115.6

103.0118.9121.6

Inventoryvaluation

adjust-ment

9.714.5

-27.3-17.5

11.05.8

-6.4-6.2

'- 19.3

-8.6-7.6

3.5-3.8

-10.7-17.8

31.7-13.5-19.5

.82.1

-11.2-10.0

3.0-6.5

-12.3-14.1

19.6r-31.2

* See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analys


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1987 DOLLARSIn the fourth quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in 1987 dollars rose$25.9 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $0.4 billion. There was a $48.1 billion increase ininventories, following an increase of $57.1 billion in the third quarter.

BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

/^

S

/

~x**

— .— . -•*'

'' \.1 1 1

1982

/s

*r

^•"""'

^

t

J

1 1 1

1983

^>

s

' XV

1 I 1

1984

s. — "

i i i1985

V^1

G

\

!OSS PRIVAINVES

REFIXED

^~"

TE DOMES!MENT

^ *- — ""

SIDENTIALINVESTME

\

CHANGE IN BUSINESSINVENTORIES

\

*• N

1 1 1

1986

\4

i i i

1987

i i i1988

^S

1C

H\ ^

\^^

.

\NONRESIDENTIAL

FIXED INVESTMENT

yr

~ ^ .»

i i i1989

-H

* * •*

i i i1990

i i i1991

^ *~

I 1 1

1992

f

s**"

s

1 1 1

1993

ss

„. — ._.

s *"" •*+

1 1 11994

BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198619871988198919901991199219931994 '

1982- IV1983- IV1984- IV1985- IV1986- IV1987- IV1988- IV ... .1989- IV1990- IV1991- IV1992- IV

1993- InTTTrv

1994. jUTTTIV '

Grossprivate

domesticinvestment

735.1749.3773.4784.0746.8683.8725.3819.9950.4

503.5669.5756.4763.1705.9793.8785.0769.5695.7697.9755.2

789.2806.2821.8862.5

898.9950.9967.3984.6

Fixed investment

Total

726.5723.0753.4754.2741.1684.9722.9804.6903.0

548.4640.2708.4732.9725.9733.9764.1744.6716.6684.4748.6

770.7787.3808.8851.7

873.4891.7910.2936.6

Nonresidential

Total

500.3497.8530.8540.0546.5515.4525.9591.6671.9

417.2449.6509.6525.5495.5510.6538.8536.7540.2506.9540.9

560.3581.0597.9627.2

643.6657.9680.0705.9

Structures

176.6171.3174.0177.6179.5160.6149.8147.7150.4

173.2162.6189.5198.3170.4177.9175.7179.8172.8151.4146.3

147.2147.3147.5148.7

144.1151.0151.6155.0

Producers'durable

equipment

323.7326.5356.8362.5367.0354.9376.2443.9521.4

244.0287.0320.1327.2325.0332.7363.1356.9367.4355.5394.6

413.0433.7450.3478.5

499.4506.9528.4550.9

Residential

226.2225.2222.7214.2194.5169.5196.9213.0231.1

131.2190.6198.8207.4230.5223.3225.3208.0176.3177.5207.7

210.4206.3211.0224.5

229.9233.8230.2230.6

Change in businessinventories

Total

8.526.319.929.85.7

— 1.12.5

15.347.4

-44.929.347.930.220.159.920.924.9

-20.913.56.6

18.518.913.010.8

25.459.257.148.1

Nonfarm

10.632.726.929.93.2

-1.3-2.018.540.4

-46.232.350.828.0

-18.662.130.531.2

-18.714.66.3

19.722.820.910.7

22.151.747.440.4



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAccording to the Commerce Department July-August 1994 survey, business spending for new plant and equipmentis expected to rise 8.8 percent in 1994, following a rise of 7.3 percent in 1993.

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

700

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

700

600SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1

--r-T

^ 1

s •>

1 1 11985

V

1 1 11986

..•*'

I i I

19S7

^-^

^~~~

\ i i1988

r^ \ALL INDl

'""-""\

NONMANUFy

--•""CMANUFAQ

! 1 1

1989

JSTRIES

OURING -^

URING

i i i

1990

' —.

I i i

1991

^ •""'

I I i

1992

_.

..

i i i

1993

^ —

s'~~" ""'

2/ 2/

1 1 11994

500

400

300

200

^SURVEYS) QUARTERLYi<SEEFOOTNOrcJBaOWSOURCE DBWrTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

198419851986198719881989..19901991199219931994 4

1992: InmIV

1993- InmIV

1994- Inm 4

rv4

Industries surveyed quarterly

Allindus-tries

373.83410.12399.36410.52455.49507.40532.61528.39546.60586.73638.37

534.23541.29547.82559.39

563.48578.95594.56604.51

619.34637.08651.92645.13

Manufacturing

Total

139.61152.88137.95141.06163.45183.80192.61182.81174.02179.47192.56

173.14172.52173.05176.74

173.99177.55182.48182.15

185.04193.99197.36193.83

Dura-ble

goods

64.5770.8765.6868.0377.0482.5682.5877.6473.3281.4592.78

73.2673.7472.6373.64

78.1980.3382.7483.64

86.0391.7198.9794.44

Non-durablegoods

75.0482.0172.2873.0386.41

101.24110.04105.17100.6998.0299.77

99.8798.78

100.42103.09

95.8097.2299.7498.51

99.02102.2898.3999.39

Nonmanufacturing

Total1

234.22257.24261.40269.46292.04323.60339.99345.58372.58407.26445.81

361.09368.77374.77382.65

389.49401.40412.09422.36

434.29443.09454.56451.30

Mining

11.8612.008.158.289.299.219.88

10.028.88

10.0811.24

8.999.208.968.43

8.989.10

11.0910.92

11.4310.7011.5711.27

Trans-portation

13.4414.5715.0515.0716.6318.8421.4722.6622.6421.7721.19

21.8223.3223.6621.66

22.3821.5021.3221.84

22.4719.5920.7321.98

Publicutilities

57.5359.5856.6156.2660.3766.2867.2166.5772.2175.9876.44

69.0972.5672.4873.79

73.7874.4575.9478.87

73.2076.5178.5077.57

Com-mercial

andother

151.39171.09181.59189.84205.76229.28241.43246.32268.84299.44336.93

261.19263.69269.67278.77

284.35296.35303.74310.73

327.20336.28343.76340.48

Addenda

Totalnon-farmbusi-ness2

418.38454.93447.11461.51508.22563.93591.96587.93607.71650.41

Manu-facturing

139.61152.88137.95141.06163.45183.80192.61182.81174.02179.47192.56

173.1417252173.05176.74

173.9917755182.48182.15

185.04193.99197.3619383

Nonmanufacturing

Total

278.77302.05309.16320.45344.77380.13399.34405.12433.69470.95

Sur-veyedquar-terly

234.22257.24261.40269.46292.04323.60339.99345.58372.58407.26445.81

361.09368.77374.77382.65

389.49401.40412.09422.36

434.29443.09454.56451.30

Sur-veyed

annual-ly3

44.5544.8147.7550.9952.7356.5359.3559.5461.1163.68

1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services andmembership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are nolonger sun-eyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data forthese industries.

2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is sun-eyed annually.3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services and

membership organizations; and reai estate.

4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1994, corrected for biases.

NOTE.—The quarterly Plant and Equipment Survey has been discontinued and replaced by anew semi-annual indicator survey: Business Inwsimeni and Pfans. The first new survey results for1993-95 were released February 23, 1995. The new survey data may be incorporated into Eco-nomic Indicators at a later date. See Plant and Equipment Expenditures and Plans release ofSeptember 8, 1994 for details.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

10Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESIn January, employment rose by 69,000 and unemployment rose by 343,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS *

134

130

126

118

114

110

IfVi

SEASONAUr ADJUSTED

. ., •"""'''"

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE _>—

-

_^^

^~^

-

V

' ""

- s**'*'

r^*"^

»^*~jr~

\

«-V -..

CIVILIAN 1EMPLOYMENT

^ ~"

-n*^ "

r —

___-• — "

_^''"-

-

V

134

130

126

11B

114

110

10A

1987

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVERSOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

19851986 "198719881989 .19901991199219931994 *

1994- Jan4

FebMarAprMay,"

July

SeptOctNovDec

1995- Jan

Civiliannoninstitu-

rionalpopulation

NSA

178,206180,587182,753184,613186,393188,049189,765191,576193,550196,814

195,953196,090196,213196,363196,510196,693196,859197,043197,248197,430197,607197,765

197,753

Chilianlabor force

115,461117,834119,865121,669123,869124,787125,303126,982128,040131,056

130,643130,784130,706130,787130,699130,538130,774131,086131,291131,646131,718131,725

132,136

Chilian employment

Total

107,150109,597112,440114,968117,342117,914116,877117,598119,306123,060

121,903122,208122,160122,402122,703122,635122,781123,197123,644124,141124,403124,570

124,639

Agricul-tural

3,1793,1633,2083,1693,1993,1863,2333,2073,0743,409

3,3283,3683,3963,4383,4133,2943,3333,4363,4113,4943,5003,532

3,575

Nonagricultural

Total

103,971106,434109,232111,800114,1421 14,728113,644114,391116,232119,651

118,575118,840118,764118,964119,290119,341119,448119,761120,233120,647120,903121,038

121,064

Part timefor

economicreasons '

5,3345,3455,1224,9654,6574,8605,7676,1166,1064,414

4,7484,4794,7064,5834,5834,5104,2734,1734,1544,2264,2464,254

4,430

Unemployment

Total

8,3128,2377,4256,7016,5286,8748,4269,3848,7347,996

8,7408,5768,5468,3857,9967,9037,9937,8897,6477,5057,3157,155

7,498

15weeks

and over

2,3052,2321,9831,6101,3751,5042,3233,3543,0522,860

3,0463,0663,0562,9722,8532,7402,8232,7732,7682,9342,6612,456

2,386

Not inlabor force

62,74462,75262,88862,94462,52363,26264,46264,59365,50965,758

65,31065,30665,50765,57665,81166,15566,08565,95765,95765,78465,88966,040

65,617

Percent 2

Laborforce

partici-pationrate

64.865.365.665.966.566.466.066.366.266.6

66.766.766.666.666.566.466.466.566.666.766.766.6

66.8

Employ-ment/pop-

ulationratio

60.160.761.562.363.062.761.661.461.662.5

62.262.362.362.362.462.362.462.562.762.963.063.0

63.0

Unem-ploy-mentrate

7.27.06.25.55.35.56.77.46.86.1

6.76.66.56.46.16.16.16.05.85.75.65.4

5.7

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full- 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data.time work, etc. * Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. See

2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unem- Employment and Earnings, February 1994.ployment as percent of civilian labor force. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

88-748 0 - 9 5 - 211


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn January, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.4 percent in December.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

20

15

10

BLACK

ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS

1991 1992

WHITE

1993 1994

PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

*UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1995

10

1991 1995


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 2

1994- Jan 2

FebMar

May

July

SeptOctNovDec ....

1995: Jan

Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

All civilianworkers

7.27.06.25.55.35.56.77.46.86.1

6.76.66.56.46.16.16.16.05.85.75.65.4

5.7

By sex and age

Men20 yearsand over

6.26.15.44.84.54.96.37.06.45.4

6.16.05.85.75.45.35.55.35.15.04.94.7

5.0

Women20 years

andover

6.66.25.44.94.74.85.76.35.95.4

5.95.75.95.65.45.45.35.35.25.05.04.7

4.9

Bothsexes16-19years

18.618.316.915.315.015.518.620.019.017.6

18.518.218.019.218.117.117.717.517.217.115.817.216.7

By race

White

6.26.05.34.74.54.76.06.56.05.3

5.85.75.65.65.35.35.35.25.15.04.84.8

4.9

Blackand

other

13.713.111.610.410.010.111.112.711.710.5

11.411.311.310.810.610.410.310.610.210.49.89.2

9.5

Black

15.114.513.011.711.411.312.414.112.911.5

13.012.712.411.911.711.311.211.310.711.110.59.8

10.2

By selected groups

Expe-riencedwageand

salarywork-

ers

6.86.65.85.25.05.36.57.16.55.9

6.66.46.46.25.95.96.05.85.75.55.45.3

5.4

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

4.34.43.93.33.03.44.45.04.43.7

4.24.34.13.93.73.63.63.53.43.33.23.2

3.4

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

10.49.89.28.18.18.29.19.99.58.9

9.39.59.49.18.98.87.98.88.98.98.78.8

8.9

Full-timeworkers 1

7.16.96.05.35.15.46.77.46.86.1

6.86.76.66.46.16.16.16.05.85.85.65.35.5

Part-timeworkers 1

7.57.46.96.46.26.36.97.47.16.0

6.26.16.36.26.25.96.06.25.85.65.45.9

6.2

1 Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Karnings, February 1994.2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. See

Employment and Earnings, February 1994.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSIn January, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose; thepercentages for 5-14 weeks, 15-26 weeks, and 27 weeks and over all fell. The mean duration of unemploymentfell to 16.7 weeks and the median duration fell to 7.9 weeks.

PER(

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

:ENT DISTRIBUTION *

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

\^ LESS THAN

^^-<^*-%vv

,

w

£>&

Illllllllll1991

./V*-14EEKS

r^vX

15-2oWEEKS

1992

rJ^^I

.'S<^17 WEEKSAND OVER

-J -rY

Illllllllll

1993

wv/CvV,

S~\ ^yV \

Illllllllll

1994

f

in, ,11,,,,1995

PER

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

:ENT DISTRIBUTION *

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

^

\.X-\.A

C^

NE

1991

jT^AJOB LOSE

R

W ENTRANT

!992

WXIS-"

[ENTRANTS

V— '

JOB LEAVER

S

1993

W/ x-v

S

r-~^

1994

-

1995

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDI/BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JOB LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBSSOUHCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1985..19861987 ..19881989..19901991 .199219931994 "

1994- Jan 3 . . . .FebMar

May

JulyAueSeptOctNovDec

1995: Jan

Unemploy-ment

(thousands)

8,3128,2377,4256,7016,5286,8748,4269,3848,7347,9968,7408,5768,5468,3857,9967,9037,9937,8897,6477,5057,3157,1557,498

Duration of unemployment

Percent distribution

Lessthan

5weeks

42.141.943.746.048.646.140.134.936.234.138.131.832.833.733.334.734.833.234.631.935.036.039.4

5-14weeks

30.231.029.630.030.332.032.329.428.930.127.031.730.730.230.930.929.732.129.629.629.129.928.5

15-26weeks

12.312.712.712.011.211.814.515.214.615.515.015.715.115.014.615.015.515.015.717.616.015.113.9

27weeks

andover

15.414.414.012.19.9

10.113.020.620.420.319.920.821.421.121.319.520.019.720.120.919.919.018.2

Number ofweeks

Aver-age

(mean)

15.615.014.513.511.912.113.817.918.118.818.418.819.219.119.418.419.018.918.819.318.217.816.7

Medi-an

6.86.96.55.94.85.46.98.88.49.28.58.99.19.29.29.19.29.29.5

10.19.18.77.9

Be

Joblos-ers1

49.848.948.046.145.748.354.756.454.647.750.648.547.845.546.047.848.347.146.646.847.547.649.2

ason for unemployment:percent distribution

Jobleav-ers

10.612.313.014.715.714.811.610.410.89.99.49.99.79.5

10.110.19.6

10.011.410.19.69.79.3

Reen-trants

27.126.226.627.028.227.424.823.724.634,832.534.235.137.136.235.734.635.034.235.035.034.933.4

Newentrants

12.512.512.412.210.49.58.99.5

10.07.67.47.47.48.07.76.47.47.97.88.27.97.78.0

Stateprograms

Insuredunem-

ploymentInitialclaims

Insuredunem-

ployment,all

regularprograms(unadjust-

ed)"

Weekly average, thousands

2,6172,6432,3002,0812,1582,5223,3423,2452,7512,671

'2,737r2,794r 2,739r2,713' 2,743r2,745'2,717'2,667'2,614'2,569'2,531'2,533'2,515

397378328310330388447408341340

'368351340

'349'365'350'348'328'323'328'329'326'335

2,6992,7392,3692,1352,2052,5753,4063,3482,8452,7403,5123,5073,3962,8732,6262,6352,5782,5732,1792,2032,343

'2,5143,279

1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Kico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-

men (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RB) programs included through 1993. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensationor Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.

s Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. See

Employment and Earnings, February 1994.Note.—Seasonally adjusted data for insured unemployment and initial claims have been revised

historically.Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Traininir Adminis-

tration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 134,000 in January, followingincreases of 210,000 in December and 534,000 in November.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

120

110

100

80

70

60

50

40

30

20 i l N i l i

1991

All NONAGRICULTURAt,ESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

I III I1992

\Mill

1993

mull1994

i n i il i1995

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* [ENLARGED SCALE)

6

4

CONSTRUCTION_ —

[imilmn

1992

1 —

imihmi1993 1994 1 1995 ^


{Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted]

Period

19851986198719881989 .. ..19901991199219931994"1994: Jan

FebMarAprMayJune ....JulyAugSeptGetNOTDec *....

1995: Jan"....

Totalnonagri-eulturalemploy-

ment

9738799,344

101 958105,210107,895109,419108,256108,604110,525113,427111,711111,919112,298112,699112,951113,334113,624113,914114,186114,348114,882115,092115,226

Goods-producing industries

Total2

24,84224,53324,67425,12525,25424,90523,74523,23123,25623,58323,32823,32723,39523,50623,51923,57623,59023,64023,67323,71523,82723,85823,927

fifit*%jon-struction

4,6684,8104,9585,0985,1715,1204,6504,4924,6424,9164,7444,7454,8064,8934,9074,9274,9444,9424,9724,9745,0445,0445,071

Manufacturing

Total

19,24818,94718,99919,31419,39119,07618,40618,10418,00318,06317,96817,97017,98018,00718,00918,04418,04518,09518,09618,14218,18318,21818,257

Tl. vnlllaifuraDlegoods

11,45811,19511,15411,36311,39411,10910,56910,27710,17210,26710,18210,18210,19010,21610,21710,25310,24910,29010,30610,33510,37110,40010,426

Non-durablegoods

7,7907,7527,8457,9517,9977,9687,8377,8277,8317,7967,7867,7887,7907,7917,7927,7917,7967,8057,7907,8077,8127,8187,831

Service-producing industries

Total

72,54474,81177,28480,08682,64284,51484,51185,37387,26989,84488,38388,59288,90389,19389,43289,75890,03490,27490,51390,63391,05591,23491,299

Trans-portation

andpublic

utilities

5,2335,2475,3625,5145,6255,7935,7625,7215,7875,8435,7935,8035,8165,7595,8435,8495,8575,8665,8655,8675,8885,9155,930

Whole-saletrade

5,7275,7615,8486,0306,1876,1736,0815,9975,9586,0595,9906,0036,0136,0286,0376,0496,0536,0796,0956,1066,1176,1326,148

Rotnilfteuultrade

17,31517,88018,42219,02319,47519,60119,28419,35619,71720,30919,92419,96520,02620,13720,15320,27920,38620,40520,47020,52320,65520,73620,748

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

5,9486,2736,5336,6306,6686,7096,6466,6026,7126,7896,7716,7766,7816,7916,7876,7986,7976,8016,7946,7866,7916,7916,792

Services

21,92722,95724,11025,50426,90727,93428,33629,05230,27831,80331,00431,12931,32631,49731,59831,76531,91832,03632,13832,23132,41432,49732,550

Government

Total

16,39416,69317,01017,38617,77918,30418,40218,64518,81719,04118,90118,91618,94118,98119,01419,01819,02319,08719,15119,12019,19019,16319,131

Federal

2,8752,8992,9432,9712,9883,0852,9662,9692,9152,8702,8932,8922,8842,8822,8702,8592,8592,8582,8632,8582,8542,8692,841

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments whoreceived pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month, Excludes propri-etors, self-employed persons, domestic sen-ants, and personnel of the Armed Forces, Total derivedfrom this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieulturai employment of the civilian laborforce, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad

weather, etc., even if they are Rot paid for the lime off; and which are based OH a sample of (heworking-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employingestablishments.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of tabor Statistics.

14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLYEARNINGS

PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1985.19861987.19881989.19901991199219931994 '

1994: JanFebMar

May, "

July

SeptOctNovDec*

1995: Jan »

Average weekly hours

Totalprivate

nonagri-cultural '

34.934.834.834.734.634.534.334.434.534.6

34.834.334.634.734.834.634.634.434.634.934.634.6

34.9

Manufacturing

Total

40.540.741.041.141.040.840.741.041.442.0

41.741.342.142.242.142.042.042.042.042.142.142.2

42.2

Overtime

3.33.43.73.93.83.63.63.84.14.7

4.54.54.74.84.74.74.64.64.74.74.84.8

4.9

Average gross hourly earnings

Total privatenonagricultura! '

Currentdollars

$8.578.768.989.289.66

10.0110.3210.5710.8311.12

11.0211.0311.0211.0511.0911.0811.1111.1311.1711.2511.2311.25

11.32

1382dollars *

$7.777.817.737.697.647.527.457.417.397.40

7.437.42

'7.407.407.427.397.38

r7.377.38

r7.427.397.39

7.41

Manufac-turing

$9.549.739.91

10.1910.4810.8311.1811.4611.7412.06

11.9512.0112.0012.0012.0012.0312.0512.0812.1212.1412.1712.19

12.23

Average gross weekly earnings

Total privatenonagricultura! '

Currentdollars

$299.09304.85312.50322.02334.24345.35353.98363.61373.64384.75

383.50378.33381.29383.44385.93383.37384.41382.87386.48392.63388.56389.25

395.07

1982dollars 2

$271.16271.94269.16266.79264.22259.47255.40254.99254.87255.99

r258.42••254.43•"255.90256.83258.15255.58255.25

'253.39255.27' 258.99255.80255.75

258.72

Current dollars

Manufac-turing

$386.37396.01406.31418.81429.68441.86455.03469.86486.04506.52

498.32496.01505.20506.40505.20505.26506.10507.36509.04511.09512.36514.42

516.11

Construc-tion

$464.46466.75480.44495.73513.17526.01533.40537.70551.81569.97

558.44545.25561.44559.02570.86567.73573.78569.66577.98575.53573.53578.79

580.26

Retailtrade

$174.64176.08178.70183.62188.72194.40198.48205.06209.95216.46

214.89212.21214.73216.05216.63216.63216.92216.75216.58220.75218.48219.93

222.21

Percent change from ayear earlier, total

privatenonagricultural 3

Currentdollars

2.11.92.53.03.83.32.52.72.83.0

3.72.53.53.52.83.13.01.83.33.82.73.0

3.1

1982dollars

-1.3.3

-1.0-.9

-1.0-1.8-1.6-.2— 0

.4

1.3.1

1.21.3.7.6.3

-1.0.3

1.2.0.3

.2

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Current dollar earnings divided bv the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical

workers <CPI-W) (on a 1982—100 base). Seasonally adjusted CPI-W data revised beginning 1990.

3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY

Period

1985: Dec1986' Dec1987- Dec1988- D e c . . . . . . .1989: Dec1990: Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec . . . ..1994: Dec

1992- Mar . ..

Sent .Dec . . .

1993- Mar

SeptDec . . . . . .

1994- Mar

SentDec . .

Index (June 1889 = 1001

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Benefits >

Percent change from

3 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Benefits '

12 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Benefits *

Not seasonally adjusted

87.390.193.197.6

102.3107.0111.7115.6119.8123.5

88.391.194.198.0

102.0106.1110.0112.9116.4119.7

84.687.590.596.7

102.6109.4116.2122.2128.3133.0

Seasonally adjusted

113.0113.8114.6115.7

116,9117.9118.9119.9

120.8121.8122.8123.6

111.0111.6112.1113.0

113.9114.6115.6116.4

117.3118.3119.1119.8

118.2119.5121.2122.9

124.8126.5127.7129.1

130.2131.5132.8133.8

1.0.7.7

1.0

1.0.9.8.8

.8

.8

.8

.7

0.8.5.4.8

.8

.6.9.7

.8

.9

.7

.6

1.31.11.41.4

1.51.4.9

I.I

.91.01.0.8

3.93.23.34.84.84.64.43.53.63.1

4.13.23.34.14.14.03.72.63.12.8

3.53.43.46.96.16.66.25.25.03.7

Not seasonally adjusted

4.23.73.43.5

3.53.63.73.6

3.33.43.33.1

3.43.02.72.6

2.72.73.13.1

2.93.12.92.8

6.35.55.25.2

5.65.85.45.0

4.43.94.03.7

1 Employer costs for employee benefits.NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the

influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.

Data exclude farm and household workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

19851986 .198719881989 ....19901991 ..199219931994 **

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV1987: IV1988: IV1989: IV1990: IV1991: IV

1992- Inmrv

1993: Inm ....rv

1994: Inm ....rv*.

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994P*

1992- Inmrv

1993: Innirv

1994: Inm ....rv".

Output per hour ofall persons

Businesssector

Nonfarmbusinesssector

Output l

Businesssector


Hours of allpersons 2

Businesssector


Compensation perhour3

Businesssector


Real compensationper hour 4

Businesssector


Unit labor costs

Businesssector


Implicit pricedeflator 5

Businesssector


1982 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

106.3108.5109.6110.7109.9110.7112.1115.5117.2119.9

101.1103.1105.4107.0108.3110.6110.8109.7110.5113.0

114.5114.8115.9116.8

116.2116.4117.3119.0

119.8119.2120.3120.8

105.6107.7108.6109.6108.6109.1110.7113.7115.4117.9

101.1103.3105.3106.0107.4109.5110.0108.5108.9111.5

112.6113.1113.9115.0

114.4114.5115.6117.0

117.9117.2118.2118.7

116.7119.9124.8130.1132.3133.3132.0135.5140.6148.1

100.0107.5114.4118.0120.6127.4131.7132.3132.1132.6

133.7134.4136.1137.9

138.1139.6140.9143.9

145.8147.2148.8150.8

116.8120.1125.0130.6132.7133.5132.2135.5141.0148.3

100.0108.1114.8118.2120.8127.6132.5132.7132.2132.8

133.6134.4135.9137.9

138.3139.9141.5144.3

146.1147.3148.8150.8

109.8110.5113.8117.5120.4120.5117.7117.4120.0123.5

98.9104.3108.5110.2111.3115.1118.8120.6119.6117.4

116.8117.1117.4118.1

118.9119.9120.1121.0

121.7123.5123.7124.8

110.7111.5115.1119.1122.2122.4119.5119.2122.2125.8

98.9104.7109.0111.4112.5116.5120.5122.3121.4119.2

118.6118.8119.3120.0

120.9122.1122.4123.3

124.0125.6126.0127.1

113.2118.8123.1128.5133.0140.6147.4154.9160.5165.6

102.1105.3109.9115.6120.9125.8130.6134.9143.5150.1

152.2153.7156.0157.7

158.8160.0161.2162.1

164.6164.7166.2167.5

112.8118.4122.5127.7132.0139.2146.2153.7158.7163.7

102.1105.2109.9115.0120.5125.1129.8133.9142.2148.8

150.9152.6154.7156.4

157.2158.2159.3160.2

162.6162.9164.1165.6

101.5104.6104.6104.8103.5103.8104.4106.6107.2107.8

100.6100.5100.7102.4105.6105.1104.7103.4103.4105.1

105.9106.1106.8107.1

107.0107.0107.3107.2

108.3107.6107.6107.9

101.1104.3104.1104.2102.7102.8103.6105.7106.0106.6

100.6100.4100.7101.8105.2104.6104.1102.6102.5104.2

105.0105.3106.0106.3

106.0105.8106.1105.9

106.9106.4106.3106.6

106.5109.5112.3116.0121.0127.1131.5134.2136.9138.1

101.0102.1104.3108.0111.6113.7117.9123.0129.8132.9

133.0133.9134.7135.1

136.6137.5137.4136.3

137.4138.2138.1138.7

106.8110.0112.8116.5121.5127.6132.1135.2137.5138.8

101.0101.9104.4108.5112.2114.3118.0123.4130.5133.5

134.0134.9135.9136.1

137.5138.1137.7136.9

137.9138.9138.9139.5

111.2113.6116.6120.8126.1131.2135.9138.8141.5144.0

101.1104.8109.0112.4114.6117.9122.8127.8133.2136.9

138.0138.8138.3140.1

140.8141.4141.6142.1

142.6143.8144.5144.9

111.6114.2117.2121.4126.5131.8136.7139.9142.6145.2

101.4105.2109.0112.9115.2118.5123.4128.2134.0137.9

139.0139.9139.5141.2

142.0142.5142.8143.1

143.5145.1145.9146.2

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

1.42.11.01.0

-.7.7

1.33.01.52.3

5.51.13.73.2

-1.9.6

3.35.7

2.9-2.0

3.71.7

•0.82.0.8

1.0-.9

.41.52.71.52.2

4.21.92.83.8

-2.0.4

4.04.9

2.9-2.1

3.21.8

3.62.84.14.31.7.7

-1.02.73.85.3

3.42.24.95.6

.64.24.08.6

5.53.74.55.4

3.42.84.14.41.7.6

-1.02.44.15.2

2.42.54.46.2

1.04.74.97.9

5.23.24.35.4

2.1.6

3.03.32.5.1

-2.3-.32.22.9

1 91.11.22.3

2.53.6

.72.8

2.55.9

.83.7

2.5.8

3.23.42.6

.2-2.4-.32.52.9

1 8.6

1.62.3

3.04.3

.92.9

2.35.51.13.6

4.55.03.64.43.55.74.85.13.63.2

5.84.06.14.4

2.63.13.02.4

6.3.2

3.63.4

4.15.03.54.23.35.55.05.13.33.1

5.74.65.84.5

2.12.42.82.4

6.1.7

3.13.7

0.93.1

— .1.2

-1.3.3.6

2.0.6.6

3.1.7

3.01.2

-.4-.01.1

-.6

4.1-2.5

01.1

0.63.1

-.2.1

-1.4.1.8

2.0.2.6

3.01.22.61.2

-.9-.7

.9-.6

3.9-2.0-.41.4

3.02.82.53.44.35.03.52.12.0.9

.32.82.41.2

4.62.5-.3

-3.1

3.32.3

21.7

3.32.92.63.34.35.13.52.41.7.9

1.42.62.9.6

4.12.0

-1.2-2.4

3.12.9-.11.9

3.32.22.63.64.44.13.52.21.91.7

3.32.2

-1.35.1

2.31.7.6

1.2

1.53.52.01.0

3.72.42.63.64.24.23.72.31.91.8

3.22.5

-1.25.1

2.21.6.7.8

1.24.52.3

.7

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1987 dollars.z Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family

workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private

benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to alt persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may

differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.

' Fourth quarter 1994 data are based on GDP data released -January 27, 199f>. The GDP datashown elsewhere in this issue of Economic. Indicators were released on March 1, l!)9.r>.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production and capacity utilization rose in January.

INDEX, 1987= 100' (RATIO SCALE)140

INDEX, 1987- 100* (RATIO SCALE)

130

120

110

100

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

I4U

130

120

110

100

90

UTILITIES AND MINING

unUTIES\

x / — - '«

/^-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1991

^ j**•*-•*

•*** — w^^

1992

- ;- r» ' s,-V' -4 ' -•

MINING

1993

f " ~^^

1994

1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 11995

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

FINAL PRODUCTS ^

BUSINESSEQUIPMENT

^^> '~-

X -•'"""

••_'

V

'\

Minium

/

,'-*"'

""*••+

"^AND SPACEEQUIPMENT

in i i l i i 1 1

w^

GOODS

'•V

^*\

in nil nil

^

,-- — '•

** • •»

*%

I l l l l i M i l l

CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)/

/

\y~^]1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1991

f

I I IM I1992

1 "~"~^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n)993

/"

in nl1994

mil l1995

COUNOI Of ECONOMIC ADVBEK

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 P.

1994- JanFebMar

May

July. "

Sept .Oct r.Nor r.Dec r

1995. Jan r

Totalindustrial

production

Index,1987 = 100

94.495.3

100.0104.4106.0106.0104.3107.6112.0118.1

114.7115.6116.6116.7117.4118.0118.2119.1119.0119.5120.4121.4

121.9

Percentchange

from yearearlier

1.7.9

4.94.41.5.0

— 1.73.24.15.4

3.73.94.74.85.75.85.56.15.86.05.95.8

6.2

Industry production indexes, 1987 = 100

Manufacturing

Total

91.694.3

100.0104.7106.4106.1103.9108.0112.9119.7

115.8116.7118.0118.4119.0119.3119.8120.9120.9121.5122.6123.8

124.2

Durable

91.893.9

100.0106.6108.6107.4104.2109.3116.1125.6

121.0122.1122.9123.7124.0124.6125.2127.0127.2128.0129.2131.0

131.9

Nondurable

91.594.9

100.0102.3103.7104.4103.6106.5109.3113.2

110.0110.7112.5112.4113.4113.4113.6114.0113.7114.2115.3115.9

115.7

Mining

109.0101.0100.0101.3100.0102.0100.298.998.299.8

97.899.5

100.5100.7100.7100.6100.1100.0100.199.298.499.9

100.2

Utilities

99.596.3

100.0105.0108.7109.9112.3111.9116.2118.1

120.3119.6117.9114.7115.8121.1119.0118.8116.5117.2116.9116.0

117.6

Capacity utilizationrate, percent 1

Totalindustry

80.379.281.583.783.782.179.280.281.784.0

82.783.283.783.683.884.184.184.584.284.484.885.4

85.5

Manufac-turing

79.579.181.683.683.281.378.079.280.983.4

81.882.282.983.083.283.283.383.883.683.884.485.0

85.1

1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 P

1994. JanFebMarAprMay

July

SeptOct 'Nov r

Decr.1995. Jan P

Products

Final products

Total

94.295.7

100.0104.8106.8107.0105.6109.0113.4118.4

115.9117.0117.4117.3117.8118.4118.5119.2118.9119.2119.9121.1

121.7

Consumer goods

Total

93.796.8

100.0102.9104.0103.4103.0105.9109.4113.1

111.5112.4112.9112.3112.8113.5113.3113.8113.0113.0113.9115.0

115.4

Dura-ble

goods

91.694.5

100.0104.6106.6102.395.5

102.6110.7119.4

118.6121.1119.0117.8116.4118.0118.0120.7119.1119.4120.6123.3

124.1

Nondur-able

goods

94.497.6

100.0102.4103.2103.8105.2106.9109.2111.6

109.8110.4111.5111.0112.0112.5112.2112.2111.7111.5112.4113.1

113.4

Equipment

Total1

94.894.5

100.0107.6110.9112.1109.4113.4119.3126.7

122.7123.8124.3124.9125.4125.8126.4127.5128.0128.8129.2130.5

131.5

Busi-ness

91.193.1

100.0110.7115.5116.9116.5124.1134.6146.9

140.4142.0142.6143.5144.5145.5146.9148.9149.5150.9151.4153.1

154.5

De-fenseand

spaceequip-ment

89.496.0

100.099.7

100.198.891.386.578.571.1

74.573.673.773.672.471.369.969.268.868.768.969.1

69.1

Intermediate products

Total

88.391.9

100.0101.8102.0101.296.998.8

102.4108.1

104.6104.9106.3106.9107.7108.5109.1109.2108.6109.9110.7110.7

110.5

Con-structionsupplies

89.193.8

100.0101.5100.598.291.895.098.9

106.7

102.9102.7103.2104.7106.1106.4107.9108.2108.6109.7109.7110.6

110.7

Busi-nesssup-plies

87.790.7

100.0102.0103.0103.2100.3101.3104.9109.2

105.8106.5108.4108.5108.8110.1110.0109.9108.7110.1111.5111.0

110.5

Materials

Total

96.695.9

100.0105.0106.7106.8105.4109.2114.1121.4

117.1118.1119.5119.7120.5121.2121.4122.8122.9123.4124.6125.9

126.4

Energy

103.499.5

100.0102.2103.1104.2104.4103.7103.6105.2

103.8104.7105.0104.8104.6106.7105.2106.1105.6105.2105.1105.8

106.6

1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.

[1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 f

1994- JanFebMarAprMay

July

Oct 'Novr

Dec r

1995. Jan p

Durable manufactures

Primary metals

Total

101.893.7

100.0108.7107.2106.598.7

101.9106.9114.2

108.0111.6112.1114.8114.8113.7112.7113.5116.0115.9119.2123.4

120.7

Ironandsteel

104.590.8

100.0112.7111.2111.5100.5105.1111.4117.8

110.8116.0116.7121.5120.9118.2116.1113.0118.2118.8121.9130.2

125.8

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

94.593.8

100.0104.2102.899.595.398.8

103.7110.7

107.2106.6108.5109.6110.0110.2111.7112.4111.6112.2113.3114.4

115.7

Industri-al

machin-ery andequip-ment

86.890.3

100.0113.0117.3117.6115.0124.6141.1160.0

150.3151.9154.0156.1157.7158.9160.6162.6164.6166.5167.6169.3

171.5

Electri-cal

machin-ery

93.194.3

100.0108.5111.0111.4113.4121.9139.3160.2

148.1150.1152.6154.3156.5159.5161.5164.1165.0166.9168.9172.2

174.6

Transportationequipment

Total

91.896.9

100.0105.2109.6107.0101.3105.1105.5109.9

110.8112.3110.7109.5107.6107.5105.7109.5108.8109.0110.4112.1

112.6

Motorvehi-clesand

parts

99.098.5

100.0105.7106.9101.094.3

107.4121.1138.0

138.7142.6138.8136.2131.6132.2129.6138.1137.4138.4141.5144.5

146.3

Lum-ber andprod-ucts

88.095.1

100.0100.199.497.190.595.8

100.2106.1

105.3103.8104.0103.9106.0106.2106.8105.5107.6106.7106.5108.3

107.1

Nondurable manufactures

Appar-el

prod-ucts

92.696.3

100.098.195.092.292.995.094.996.2

93.594.995.796.297.197.097.096.896.896.996.896.8

96.0

Print-ing and

pub-lishing

87.690.6

100.0100.9101.1100.897.097.299.3

101.3

98.298.8

101.3101.7101.6102.4102.1101.5100.9101.4102.1102.4

101.5

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

91.494.6

100.0106.0109.2111.8111.1114.7119.1123.9

121.3121.8123.1122.4124.0124.4124.7124.7123.7123.8125.7126.3

127.2

Foods

94.997.4

100.0101.5102.5103.7105.3107.0109.4112.8

109.9109.9112.9111.9112.8112.8113.4113.7114.6113.4114.2114.8

115.0

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 '

1994- Jan ..FebMar ...AprMay .., *

July ....AugSeptOctNov 'Dec r

1995- Jan *

Total newconstructionexpenditures

Private

Total

Residential

Total1 New housingunits

Commercialand

industrial «Other

Federal,State, and

local

Billions of dollars

377.4407.7419.4432.3443.7442.2403.6435.4466.4506.9

488.5485.9496.0497.0504.4506.1505.4505.5514.2521.4525.1530.9

529.7

299.5323.1328.7337.5345.5334.7293.5316.1341.1377.8

363.9361.9371.7374.1378.2379.3376.5376.2382.3384.9393.5395.2

393.1

158.5187.1194.7198.1196.6182.9157.8187.9210.5237.9

229.8233.3236.8238.0241.2240.7237.8236.9238.5239.3242.3243.9

242.8

114.7133.2139.9138.9139.2128.0110.6129.6144.1167.4

Annual rates

160.8164.2167.0168.4170.1168.9168.8167.9168.9167.8169.2170.4

169.2

89.884.484.088.094.396.477.065.866.474.0

67.366.370.373.373.773.573.474.076.476.781.281.1

83.9

51.351.650.151.554.655.458.762.564.265.9

66.762.364.662.863.465.165.365.467.468.870.070.2

66.4

77.884.690.694.798.2

107.5110.1119.2125.3129.2

124.6124.0124.4122.9126.1126.8129.0129.3131.9136.5131.6135.7

136.7

Construction contracts 3

Total valueindex

(1987=100)

9196

100101105958997

104111

r!09111113107

rl!2rl!0

112r!20rl!5rlll113104

104

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feel)

1,0971,0161,019

973961783577556589715

Annual raleg

r636'602r714'625r658r631'719'688r710r707771688

786

1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.2 Includes hotels and motels.3 F.W. Dodge series.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompany, F.W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

1985198619871988 ..198919901991199219931994 r

1994' Jan r

Feb r.Mar 'Apr 'May 'June'.July ' .Aue r

Sept ' .Oct 'Nov r

Dec '

1995- Jan *

New private housing units

Units started, by type of structure

Total

1,741.81,805.41,620.51,488.11,376.1,1,192.71,013.91,199.71,287.61,455.3

1 unit

1,072.41,179.41,146.41,081.31,003.3

894.8840.4

1,029.91,125.71,196.8

2-4 units

93.484.065.358.855.237.535.630.729.435.2

5 or more units

576.1542.0408.7348.0317.6260.4137.9139.0132.6223.3

Uniteauthorized

1,733.31,769.41,534.81,455.61,338.41,110.8

948.81,094.91,199.1

' 1,374.6

Unitscompleted

1,703.31,756.41,668.81,529.81,422.81,308.01,090.81,157.51,192.71,346.4

New private homes

Homes sold

688750671676650534509610666672

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1,2661,3181,4991,4631,4891,3701,4401,4631,5111,4511,5361,527

1,377

1,1221,1121,2591,2091,1971,1741,2191,1741,2351,1641,1861,223

1,072

233230313618324042396236

38

121174210223256178189249234248288268

267

1,3921,2791,3311,3771,3831,3361,3471,3821,4161,3911,3551,421

1,302

1,2311,3371,2661,3631,4381,3331,2801,3371,4001,3761,3711,388

1,410

640691722672689632630672691707648654

679

Homes forsale at end of

period1

346357366368365321284

'265r293341

295298299298302313317322328330335341

344

Vacancy ratefor rental

housing units(percent) 2

6.57.37.77.7

"7.47.27.47.4

»7.37.4

7.5

7.4

7.2

7.4

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data

have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.3 The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,332.3 thousand units (revised).

NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, unitsauthorized are for 17,000 places.

Seasonally adjusted data for housing starts, housing completions, and homes sold and for salehave been revised beginning 1992.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn December, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.4 percent and inventories rose $2.6 billion. According toadvance data, retail sales rose 0.2 percent in January, the same gain as in December.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

.

1991

MAITR,

---'-'"

M,M

1992

-CTT^\MUFACTURIN<ADE INVENTC

\\NUFACTURIIgD TRADE SA

1993

5 AND3RIES

^f— ','~~"~~

«LES

1994 1995

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

300

250

200

150

100

RETAIL INVENTORIES

RETAIL SALES

RATIO*

• SEASON4UY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

1.80

1.70

1.60

1.50

1.40

1.30

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

RETAIL

\v;>^

1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 M

1991

szrv /w/« ^--k MANUFACTURING "x

ANDTRyM 1 1 t 1 1 t 1 1 1

1992

« -1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M 1 1

1993

<t

f 1 1 1 1 I M 1 1 t

1994

COUNCIL OFB

i 1 1 1 1 1 1 | t M

1995

:ONOMCADV!SB!

Period

19841985.19861987.19881989 .19901991199219931994 *1993: Dec '1994: Jan

FebMar

May

July. 'AugSentOctNov r

Dec *1995: Janp

Manufacturing andtrade1

Sales » Inven-tories3

Wholesale

Sales2 Inven-tories3

Retail

Sales 2

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Inventories 3

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted

411,427423,940431,786459,107496,819523,260542,349537,598559,799592,201638,729611,127

'610,641619,103627,781625,080627,524632,863630,573651,210649,932651,917661,100670,125

651,551665,835664,624711,725767,538813,637837,120832,852841,831

'865,267921,011865,267867,692871,842870,189874,989885,185889,100894,689902,514906,731913,385918,393921,011

113,502114,816116,326124,340135,170143,754148,859146,834152,031160,213171,118160,889163,483165,330167,981167,408167,897169,208169,801175,157174,333176,153177,298181,159

144,223149,155155,445165,814180,535188,566196,935201,462208,757216,536234,613216,536217,278218,820217,359219,605223,213223,098226,639227,600228,755232,224234,078234,613

107,243114,586120,803128,442138,108146,782154,031155,246163,258173,468186,777180,516

'178,828181,958185,303183,429183,395185,089185,287187,973189,465191,789192,611

'192,913193,218

37,87341,51045,05747,98952,48254,89455,944'54,45658,94265,38373,99470,822

'70,07270,86073,30672,38871,94072,80572,50574,53275,46877,66477,944

'77,71877,428

69,36973,07575,74680,45385,62691,88898,088

100,790104,316108,085112,783109,694

'108,756111,098111,997111,041111,455112,284112,782113,441113,997114,125114,667

'115,195115,790

167,812181,881186,510207,836219,581238,160241,117245,042253,836

'271,306294,588271,306271,506272,954273,058274,739279,590282,896281,405287,902291,445293,098294,327294,588

79,07488,31589,983

105,481112,690121,716121,666119,739123,520

'135,508151,540135,508137,492138,061137,817139,242141,314142,792142,403147,508149,766150,490151,421151,540

88,73893,56696,527

102,355106,891116,444119,451125,303130,316' 135,798143,048135,798134,014134,893135,241135,497138,276140,104139,002140,394141,679142,608142,906143,048

Inventory-sales ratio *

Manufac-turing

andtrade1

.53

.55

.55

.50

.491.531.531.541.501.451.401.42.42.41.39.40.41.40.42.39

1.401.401.391.37

Retail

1.491.521.561.561.541.581.561.551.521.521.521.501.521.501.471.501.521.531.52.53.54.53.53.53

* See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are season-

ally adjusted totals for month.

3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period,4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSManufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders rose again in January.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

_ SHIPMENT.TOTAL ^^

-V, >

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

NO

I1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

XJRABLE GOC

;

/••(DURABLE GC

l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

IDS

f •*'

XDDS

1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M M Mi l l ! 1 1 1 !

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

MFW OPnFBS

TOTAI

-N^^

.

»

II 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1

1991

/

NONI

I I I i I IE H 1 11992

r~~ ""I

DURABLE GC

\

JURABLE GOC

1993

r~^

X3DS

'V

OS

1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1994 1995

8014010060

20

80

40

00

60

20

80

INVtNIOKIbS

— ===

1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1

TOTAL

"\ 1RABLE GOOD

\vIDURABLE GC

1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1

1

1 ! 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1991

•SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

1995


Period

19841985198619871988 .198919901991199219931994 '

1994' JanFebMarAprMay . .y 3

July

SeptOctNovDec *

1995: Jan '

Manufacturers' shipments *

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' new orders l

Total

Durable goods

Total

Capitalgoods

industries,non-defense

Nondurablegoods

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders z

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted

190,682194,538194,657206,326223,541232,724239,459235,518244,511258,520

• 280,835

268,330271,815274,497274,243276,232278,566275,485288,080286,134283,975291,191296,053

297,340

97,940101,279103,238108,128117,993121,703122,387119,151125,553135,981151,060

144,709146,260147,388146,932148,510150,010146,472155,619154,350152,586157,292159,299

160,660

92,74293,25991,41998,198

105,549111,022117,072116,367118,958122,539129,775

123,621125,555127,109127,311127,722128,556129,013132,461131,784131,389133,899136,754

136,680

339,516334,799322,669338,075367,422386,911399,068386,348379,238377,425391,810

378,908380,068379,772380,645382,382383,106386,645387,012386,531388,063389,988391,810

395,886

221,330218,212212,006220,776241,402256,065259,988249,117237,717236,303247,644

238,172238,832238,195239,164240,539241,039243,392244,116243,814244,925246,374247,644

250,432

118,186116,587110,663117,299126,020130,846139,080137,231141,521141,122144,166

140,736141,236141,577141,481141,843142,067143,253142,896142,717143,138143,614144,166

145,454

192,879195,706195,204209,389227,026235,932240,646234,354241,545255,701281,953

272,616271,786274,691275,182277,441279,788274,305287,222287,248285,985293,716-299,514

301,291

100,164102,356103,647110,809121,445124,933123,556117,878122,614133,273151,878

148,549145,882146,906147,345149,412151,212145,251154,675155,433154,150159,321162,310

164,036

23,66924,54523,98326,09530,72932,72532,25429,46829,65331,88937,530

36,63036,38236,12735,81535,49838,05536,31037,59539,05638,27640,78137,759

41,380

92,71593,35191,55798,579

105,581110,999117,090116,476118,932122,428130,074

124,067125,904127,785127,837128,029128,576129,054132,547131,815131,835134,395137,204

137,255

373,529387,095393,412430,288471,951510,459524,846511,122475,304441,947456,838

446,233446,204446,398447,337448,546449,767448,587447,729448,843450,853453,378456,838

460,789

Manufac-turers'inven-tory —

shipmentsratio 3

1.731.731.681.591.581.641.651.671.571.471.37

1.411.401.381.391.381.381.401.341.351.371.341.32

1.33

1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are season-ally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.

2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.

3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods fell0.6 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.7 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3percent. (Seasonally adjusted data revised.)

INDEX, 1982 . 100 (RATIO SCALE! INDEX, 1982 « 100 (RATIO SCALE)150

140

130

120

110

100

FINISHED GOODS PRICES SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED

-

CONSUM

\

CAPfTAL EQUIPMENT

\ ^

I M I I

1987

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT

*"~" /f

<<

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11988

OflAEOR

'a^-

' - J/ V~"

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11989

ER FOODS

y\,^-^>^~ f**

TOTAL /

i i i i 1 1 i i i i i1990

jnrr"*'"'

CONSUMER©EXaUDINGFC

| 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1

1991

^'-w.^'^

DODSX)DS

i i i i i I i i i i i1992

'^•^

i i i i i 1 i i i i i1993

r---''X-''

,/'X.-"'

i l l i1994

COUNCIL O

r

-

-

-

1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1

150

140

130

120

110

100

1995

F ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982=100; monthly date seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994 f1994- Jan '

Peb r.Mar r

Apr1"May r

July r.Aug r

Sept 'Oct r

Nov r

Dec T

1995- Jan

Finished goods

Totalfinishedgoods

104.7103.2105.4108.0113.6119.2121.7123.2124.7125.5124.9125.2125.2125.2125.1125.2125.5126.2125.8125.3126.0126.5126.9

Con-sumerfoods

104.6107.3109.5112.6118.7124.4124.1123.3125.7126.8127.4127.0127.4126.8126.1125.6126.1126.4126.2126.2127.2129.0128.2

Finished goods excluding consumer foods

Total

104.6101.9104.0106.5111.8117.4120.9123.1124.4125.1124.0124.6124.5124.7124.8125.0125.2126.0125.6125.0125.6125.7126.4

Consumer goods

Total

103.398.5

100.7103.1108.9115.3118.7120.8121.7121.6120.6121.3121.1121.2121.2121.4121.7122.7122.0121.4122.2122.1123.0

Durable

106.5108.9111.5113.8117.6120.4123.9125.7128.0130.9129.9130.0130.1130.3181.0131.1131.3131.8131.9130.9131.3131.7132.0

Nondurable

101.793.394.997.3

103.8111.5115.0117.3117.6116.2115.2116.2115.9115.9115.6115.8116.2117.4116.3115.9116.9116.6117.7

Capitalequip-ment

107.5109.7111.7114.3118.8122.9126.7129.1131.4134.1132.9133.1133.3133.7134.1134.3134.4134.7135.0134.3134.5135.0135.4

Totalfinished

con-sumergoods

103.8101.4103.6106.2112.1118.2120.5121.7123.0123.3122.7123.1123.1123.0122.8122.8123.2123.9123.4122.9123.8124.3124.7

Intermediate materials

Total

102.799.1

101.5107.1112.0114.5114.4114.7116.2118.5116.7117.1117.2117.2117.4117.8118.2119.0119.5119.9121.0121.5122.7

Foodsand

feeds1

97.396.299.2

109.5113.8113.3111.1110.7112.7114.8117.3118.1117.7117.2116.3115.3112.6112.9113.5112.5112.7111.8112.6

Other

103.099.3

101.7106.9111.9114.5114.6114.9116.4118.7116.6117.0117.2117.2117.4118.0118.5119.3119.8120.2121.4122.0123.2

Crude materials

Total

95.887.793.796.0

103.1108.9101.2100.4102.4101.7102.3101.7102.9103.5101.9103.0102.6102.6100.199.9

100.4100.0101.0

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

94.893.296.2

106.1111.2113.1105.5105.1108.4106.5112.3112.6111.8111.2106.9106.4103.9102.8102.6101.5102.2102.4102.3

Other

96.981.687.985.593.4

101.594.693,594.794.891.990.993.394.694.796.897.898.594.795.195.494.596.2

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.NOTE.-—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1990,

22

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.4percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.8 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusted datarevised.)

INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCAIE)

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

SEASONAUY ADJUSTS)

INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

160

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

150

140

130

120

110

100

901995

SEE NOli ON TABlf BELOWSOURCE: DERARTMfNT OF LABOR COUNO. Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19851986198719881989199019911992 . .199319941994:

Jan 'Feb r

Mar r.Apr 'May r

June r.July r

Aug '...<....Sept r

Oct r.NOT '.Dec '.

1995:Jan

All items '

Notseason-

allyadjust-

ed(NSA)

10001076109.61136118.31240130.7136.21403144.5148.2

146.2146.7147.2147.4147.5148.0148.4149.0149.4149.5149.7149.7

150.3

Sea-son-ally

adjust-ed

146.4146.8147.1147.4147.6148.1148.5149.1149.4149.6149.8150.1

150.6

Food

15.8105.6109.0113.5118.2125.1132.4136.3137.9140.9144.3

143.0142.7142.9143.2143.5143.9144.7145.4145.7145.8146.0147.1

146.7

Housing

Total1

41.3107.7110.9114.2118.5123.0128.5133.6137.5141.2144.8

143.1143.6143.9144.0144.3144.4144.7145.1145.4145.7145.9145.9

146.5

Shelter

Total

38.0109.8115.8121.3127.1132.8140.0146.3151.2155.7160.5

158.0158.5159.0159.3159.7159.8160.2160.9161.3161.8162.2162.3

162.8

ers'costs(Dec.

1982 =100)

8.0115.4121.9128.1133.6138.9146.7155.6160.9165.0169.4

166.6167.0167.6167.6168.1168.5168.5169.2169.1169.7170.2170.1

170.5

Home-own-ers'

costs(Dec.

1982 =100)

19.9113.1119.4124.8131.1137.3144.6150.2155.3160.2165.5

162.9163.6164.1164.4164.8164.9165.3166.1166.8167.3167.7167.8

168.4

Mainte-nanceand

repairs(NSA)

0.3106.5107.9111.8114.7118.0122.2126.3128.6130.6130.8

128.9129.4129.3130.2131.0131.5131.3131.2131.6130.8131.2132.7

133.1

Fueland

otherutili-ties

7.1106.5104.1103.0104.4107.8111.6115.3117.8121.3122.8

122.1123.1123.2122.9122.6122.6122.8123.0122.6122.6122.9122.7

123.3

Appar-el andupkeep

5.7105.0105.9110.6115.4118.6124.1128.7131.9133.7133.4

134.0133.5133.7133.6133.9134.7134.2133.0133.1132.8132.4132.1

133.0

Transportation

Total1

17.1106.4102.3105.4108.7114.1120.5123.8126.5130.4134.3

131.6132.3132.8133.2132.8133.7134.7136.0136.2136.1136.3136.6

137.4

Newcars

4.1106.1110.6114.6116.9119.2121.0125.3128.4131.5136.0

133.6134.0134.5135.0135.4135.9136.5136.9137.5137.6137.4137.6

137.7

Motorfuel

3.198.777.180.280.988.5

101.299.499.098.098.5

95.496.896.696.795.496.198.8

101.8101.1100.4101.1101.3

101.7

Medi-calcare

7.3113.5122.0130.1138.6149.3162.8177.0190.1201.4211.0

206.7207.4208.1209.2209.9210.7211.5212.4213.3214.3215.2216.2

216.9

Ener-gy2

7.0101.688.288.689.394.3

102.1102.5103.0104.2104.6

102.7103.8103.8103.6102.7103.0104.4105.9105.3105.0105.5105.4

105.7

Allitemslessfoodand

energy

77.3109.1113.5118.2123.4129.0135.5142.1147.3152.2156.5

154.7155.0155.5155.8156.2156.7157.0157.4157.7158.0158.3158.5

159.2

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.

excluded beginning 1983.3 Relative importance, December 1994.

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1990.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODSnVrwtit change from prm^ng period; monthly data srasonailv adjusted, except as noted by NSAJ

IVriod

198519861987198819891990199119921993 ...1994"

1994- Jan 'Febr. JMar ' jApr' ,Mav 'June r

July'Aug r

Sept 'Oct 'Nov 'Dec'....

1995: Jan. ..

Change from preceding period

Totalfinishedgoods

Consumer goods*

Poods delud-ing foods

Capitalequip-ment

Change, Dee. to Dec., NSA

1.8-2.3

2.24.04.95.7

— .11.6.2

1.7

0.62.8

— 2i.i5.22.61 aJ.62.41.0

2.1-6.6

4.13.15.38.7-.71.6

-1.41.9

2.72.11.33.63.83.42.51.71.82.0

Change, month to month

0.5.2

00

—.1.1.2.6

-.3A

.6

.4

.3

02-.3

.3-.5

— fi-.4.4.22

0.8

1.4-.6

0.7.6

-.2.1

0.2.2.8

-.6-.5

.7-.1

.7

0.4.2.2.3.3.1.1.2.2

-.5.1.4.3

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

2.62.62.91.0

-.301.03.61.9

-.6-.62.25.2

Consumer goods

Foods

6.2-.3

9-1.9

2 8-5.5-2.2

1.01.9.3

2.69.26.5

Excludingfoods

0.33.74.42.0

31.01.75.02.0

-1.0-1.6

.35.4

Capitalequipment

3.72.82.72.43.03.02.11.82.1-.3-.603.3

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

0.02.11.81.81.11.51.01.61.0.2

1.42.12.2

Consumer goods

Foods

4.02.92.92.1

-1.63.3

-2.0-.9

-1.9-.91.85.53.4

Excludingfoods

-2.61.71.31.21.72.71.82.31.5.3

1.71.22.1

Capitalequipment

2.12.12.33.12.92.92.32.42.6.9.6

1.01.5

Changefromyear

earlier,total

finishedgoods

NSA

1.0-1.4

2.12.55.24.92.11.21.2.6

.2

.2

.2-.4

4.1.6

1.91.51.01.31.71.6

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning J990, Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS(Pereeat change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA}

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994

1994: Jan * ....Feh ' ....Mar'....Apr ' ....May '....June ' ...July ' ...Augr....Sept ' ...Octr

Nov r ....Dec " ....

1995: Jan

Allitems * Food

Housing

Total1

Shelter

Total1Rent-ers'eosts

Home-owners'

costs

Fueland

otherutili-ties

An-parelandup-

keep

Transportation

Total' Newcurs

Motorfuel

Medi-cal

care

Ener-gy"

Allitemslessfoodand

energy

Change, December to December, NSA

3.81.14.44.44.66.13.12.92.72.7

2.63.83.55.25.65.31.91.52.92.9

4.31.73.74.03.94.53.42.62.72.2

6.04.64.84.54.95.23.92.93.03.0

6.35.03.93.94.56.74.22.82.62.3

5.94.65.34.75.14.73.72.93.23.3

1.8561.62.93.24.02.92.32.5.2

2.8.9

4.84.71.05.13.41.4.9

-1.6

2.6-5.9

6.13.04.0

10.4-1.5

3.02.43.8

3.45.91.82.12.31.43.32.32.83.2

3.130718.7

-2.16.8

36.5-16.0

1.8-5.4

5.9

6.87.75.86.98.59.67.96.65.44.9

1.81978.2

.55.1

18.1-7.4

2.0-1.4

2.2

4.33.84.24.74.45.24.43.33.22.6

Change, month to month

0.1.3.2.2.1.3.3.4.2.1.1.2.3

0.0-.2

.1

.2

.2

.3

.6_

.5

.2

.1

.1

.8-.3

0.1.3.2.1.2.1.2.3.2.2.1

0.4

0.3.3.3.2.3.1.3.4.2.3.2.1.3

0.1.2.4

0.3.2

0.4

-.1.4.3

— .1.2

0.2.4.3.2.2.1.2.5.4.3.2.1.4

0 2.8.12

-.20

.2

.2—.30

.2-.2

.5

0 1-.4

.11

.2

.6-.4-.9

.1-.2

g

-.2,7

0.0.5.4.3

-.3.7.7

1.0.1

-.1.1.2.6

0.2.3.4.4.3.4.4.3.4.1j

.1

.1

0 11.5

-.2.1

-1.3.7

2.83.0-.7-.7

.7

.2

.4

0.3.3.3.5.3.4.4.4.4.5,4,5.3

-0.31.10-.2— 9

.31.41.4

-.6-.3

.5— .1"

.3

0.2.2.3.2.3.3.2.3.2.2.2.1.4

Addendum: AH items, percent change(annual rate)

Fromprevi-ous

quar-ter3

2.2

2.5

3.6

2.2

From3

monthsearlier

1.92.22.22.82.22.73.04.13.63.01.91.92.7

From«

monthsearlier

2.52.62.92.32.22.52.93.23.23.03.02.72.8

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

3.61.93.64.14.85.44.23.03.02.6

2.52.52.52.42.32.52.82.93.02.62.72.72.8

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,

Deluded beginning 1383.

3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter,NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1390.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSIn February, prices received by farmers were unchanged from their January level. Prices paid by farmers in Januaryrose 0.9 percent from their October level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)

INDEX, 1990-92=100 (RATIO SCALE)

120

110

100

INDEX, 1990-92=100 (RATIO SCALE)

120

140

120

100

80

60

80

D-!' RAT

RATIO

'"" *~~\

-

i ! i i i 1 I I I I I

1QR7

r^~1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

loan

r^ — -^

i i i i i 1 i i i r i

IQflO

1 — y

, HI, 1

10W1

hi l l !

1051

-" ^

. 1 I III I 1 I I!

1OOO

-

11Q9T

~~" ~^1

1

1994

-

-

, , , , , ! , , , , ,199<5

O-L/140

120

100

80

60

_!/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1990-92=100; not seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994

1994- FebMarAprMay

July

SeptOctNovDec

1995: Jan....Feb

Prices received by farmers

All farmproducts

91878999

10410410098

101100

104105102101100979797959599

9898

Crops

988786

104109103101101102105

11010910610710810110110299

100106

r!03103

Livestock andproducts

86889193

1001059997

10095

1001011009794939491909090

9394

Prices paid by farmers

AH commodities,services,

interest, taxes,and wage rates l

868587919699

100101103106

.(3)<3)

107(3>

/ (3>106(3)(3)

106(3>(3)

107(3)

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wagerates

878587929799

100101103106

(3)(3)

107(3)(3)

105(3)<3>

104<3><3>

106(3)

Productionitems

918687909599

100101103106

(3)<3>

108<3><3>

105(3)(3)

105(3)(3)

105(3)

Ratio 2

10610310210810810599989894

9899959493929292909093

9292

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,

and wage rates. See also footnote 3.3 Prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the

received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1990-92= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESGrowth in M2 and M3 accelerated in January.

BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)4,8004,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

600

400 I

1987 1988

A-

1989 1990 1991

-M2.

1992 1993

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)4,8004,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

1994

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

600

1995

COUNdl Of ECONOMIC ADVBBS

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985- Dec1986- Dec1987- Dec1988- Dec1989* Dec1990' Dec1991- Dec

1992' Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec

1994' JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOctNovDec '

1995' Jan

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers' checks,

and othercheckable

deposits (OCDs)

619.9724.4749.8786.9794.2825.9897.3

1,024.41,128.61,147.8

,132.5,137.0,141.1,142.8,143.5,147.0,152.2,150.8,151.0

1,148.11,147.51,147.8

1,148.8

M2

HI plus overnightBPs and

Eurodollars,MMMF balances(general purpose

and broker/dealer),MMDAs, and

savings and smalltime deposits

2,576.12,820.32,922.33,083.63,243.13,355.93,457.93,515.3

'3,583.6'3,613.1

'3,589.1'3,586.1'3,597.4'3,605.3'3,608.43,605.3

'3,616.5'3,612.8'3,611.3'3,607.6'3,608.63,613.1

3,626.4

M3

M2 plus largetime deposits,

term KPa, termEurodollars, andinstitution-only

MMMF balances

3,200.23,488.73,675.83,915.74,066.14,123.04,176.04,182.94,242.5

'4,301.8

4,246.04,232.14,240.84,250.9

'4,251.5'4,256.7'4,274.2'4,271.6'4,276.9'4,284.0'4,290.24,301.8

4,326.7

L

M3 plusother liquid

assets

3,827.54,129.14,334.84,670.14,896.54,973.54,990.95,061.15,150.3

'5,283.1

5,165.6'5,163.0'5,165.9'5,181.4'5,188.7'5,185.6'5,208.7'5,205.8'5,208.1'5,231.4'5,244.0"5,283.1

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinancialsectors

(monthlyaverage) '

6,902.17,785.28,544.69,315.0

10,045.110,690.211,171.111,706.112,335.4

'12,973.8

12,379.612,430.412,496.012,555.212,613.612,655.512,683.412,749.112,809.5

'12,862.7'12,932.1"12,973.8

Percent change from year or 6months earlier 2

Ml

12.316.93.54.9.9

4.08.6

14.210.21.7

8.77.76.65.33.83.33.52.41.7.9.7.1

-.6

M2

8.39.53.65.55.23.53.01.71.9.8

2.62.12.22.31.81.21.51.5.8.1.0.4

.5

M3

7.39.05.46.53.81.41.3.2

1.41.4

2.11.31.31.3.8.7

1.31.91.71.61.82.1

2.5

Debt

14.812.89.89.07.86.44.54.85.45.2

5.25.15.35.65.65.24.95.15.0

'4.9'5.15.0

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govern-ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli-er at a simple annual rate.

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.


26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1985' Dec1986- Dec1987- Dee1988- Dec1989- Dec1990' Dec1991- Dec19921 Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec r

1994- JanFebMar

MayT '

July

SeptOctNovDec *

1995- Jan

Cur-rency

167.9180.7196.8212.2222.6246.8267.4292.8322.1354.5325.4328.9332.0334.5337.3340.0342.8345.1347.2350.0353.0354.5

357.7

De-maudde-

posits

266.6302.1286.8286.8279.3277.4289.5338.9383.9382.0386.9388.6388.6388.1385.6386.3388.0386.6386.5384.4382.3382.0

383.5

Othercheek-able

depos-its

(OCDs)

179.8235.6259.5280.9285.4293.9332.7384.6414.7402.9412.3411.6412.5412.0412.4412.5413.1410.8408.9405.4403.8402.9

399.2

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs),

net,plusover-nightEuro-

dollars '

NSA

76.384.987.385.181.577.779.983.196.6

117.5r98.0r94.9

' 100.0r98.9

' 102.5' 106.9' 110.7r!11.8r 113.2r!15.1' 113.6

117.5

126.0

Money marketmutual fundbalances 2

Gener-al

pur-poseand

broker/dealer

178.0210.6224.5245.9322.4358.2374.2356.9360.1389.7361.2359.5361.9370.5373.5370.7375.8376.2376.6379.7384.2389.7

392.6

Insti-tutiononly

64.184.591.190.5

107.2134.0180.0200.2198.1180.8194.6182.1183.8183.1177.5177.9178.7177.4176.3180.8180.5180.8

186.3

Savingsdeposits,includingmoneymarketdeposit

accounts(HMD As)

815.4941.0937.7926.7891.0920.5

1,041.21,183.61,215.71,143.91,221.11,221.91,222.01,220.01,214.81,206.81,201.21,192.61,183.71,171.01,157.61,143.9

1,129.5

Smalldenom-inationtime

depos-its3

885.7859.0922.7

1,038.61,153.71,174.01,066.6

869.2785.1816.6779.5775.0772.0770.1770.8772.9775.4780.7786.5796.0806.8816.6

831.9

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-its3

422.4420.2467.0518.3541.5480.9416.6353.8332.7361.4335.1331.8330.3329.8332.4335.0338.2341.5347.3353.0

r357.7361.4

361.4

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)

NSA

62.581.1

107.3123.2100.490.973.382.097.6

105.3'93.7r92.3r95.5r99.098.0

* 102.5T 103.1' 101.3' 102.2

102.3* 103.4

105.3

109.0

TermEuro-dollars

(net)

NSA

76.985.191.6

106.383.871.659.445.946.553.745.547.946.246.547.750.351.1

r51.4r52.153.1

r55.453.7

54.9

Sav-ings

bonds

79.591.8

100.6109.4117.5126.0137.9156.6171.5

" 180.3172.5173.2173.9174.8175.7176.7177.7178.5179.1179.5179.9

' 180.3

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

298.3280.1253.2269.5326.0333.4318.5336.2334.2

"364.5340.9

r341.7r 344.9r354.7r357.3r348.8' 353.1'356.5' 348.4r351.9r358.8"364.5

Bankers'accept-ances

42.137.144.540.240.635.923.820.814.9

"10.114.814.915.514.011.610.810.911.411.911.710.9

"10.1

Com-mercialpaper

207.5231.3260.6335.4346.4355.2334.8364.5387.1

"426.5391.4401.2390.8387.1392.6392.7392.8387.7391.7404.2404.0

"426.5

1 Includes continuing contract RPs.2 Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted.3 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of lees than

$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock bat are not shownhere.


AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures *; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1985- Dec1986' Dec1987- Dec1988- Dec1989- Dec1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec '1994- Feb '

Mar *Apr 'May '

July r

Sep *Oct 'Nov 'Dec '

1995- Jan *

Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements

Reserves of depository institutions

Total

31,45138,93538,84940,39640,49641,76945,53254,34160,47659.34260,77560,58760,48060,10559,98960,10559,83959,79459,49659,40159,34259,12458,909

Nonbor-rowed

30,13238,10838,07238,68140,23141,44445,34054,21860,39459.13360,70560,53260,35659,90559,65659,64759,37059,30759,11659,15259,13358,98858,849

Nonbor-rowed plusextended

credit

30,63238,41138,55539,92540,25141,46645,34054,21860,39459,13360,70560,53260,35659,90559,65659,64759,37059,30759,11659,15259,13358,99258,850

Required

30,41437,56537,80339,34939,57440,10544,55353,18659,41358,17459,63559,62059,32959,19058,88558,99858,83558,73458,69358,39458,17457,78557,951

Monetarybase

203,543223,576239,775256,870267,696293,157317,122350,609385,855418,223393,771396,668399,229401,680404,213407,175409,243411,337413,854416,788418,223421,047422,595

Borrowings of depositoryinstitutions from the Federal

Reserve (NSA)

Total

1,318827777

1,71626532619212482

2097055

12420033345846948738024920913659

Seasonal

563893

1308476381831

100152457

1342263644454443391641004633

Extendedcredit

499303483

1,244202311000000000000040

1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.NOTE.—Aggregate reserves and the monetary base data have been revised. Revised data prior to

February 1994 are not yet available.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKSTotal commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.4 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 2.0percent.

- ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

3,6003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

400

200

160

120 i i i i i I i i i i i

1988

i i i i i I I t i i t1989

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

\

OTHER SECURITIES

i i i I I ! i i i 1 i

1990

-VI 1 t 1 i i I 1 1 1 I

1991

i i i i i I i i i i i1992

i i i i i I t i i i

1993

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE!

3,6003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

i i i t i [ i t i i i M 1 i i i i i

1,200

800

400

200

160

120

1994 1995

COUNCil OF ECONOMIC ASVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted l]

Period

New series:1988: Dec1989: Dec1990: Dec1991: Dec1992: Dec1993: Dec1994: Dec1"

1994: Janr

Feb r.Mar r.Apr r.May r

June 'July r

Aug 'Sept r.Oct r

Nov r

Dec ".

1995: Jan

Totalbankcredit

2,435.52,608.52,749.22,854.72,949.33,105.73,319.7

3,146.73,155.33,176.13,203.43,209.73,221.73,256.63,269.33,281.53,290.63,300.63,319.7

3,351.2

Securities in bank credit

Totalsecurities

562.3584.6634.0745.0841.1914.9948.1

942.2942.9952.9967.8965.5969.0975.0969.4967.3959.0952.1948.1

946.4

U.S.Govern-

mentsecurities

367.1400.2455.9565.3

* 664.8730.2718.8

734.8735.5745.9756.4751.1751.5750.8745.2740.1730.5723.0718.8

720.2

Othersecurities

195.3184.4178.1179.7176.4184.7229.3

207.4207.4207.0211.4214.4217.5224.2224.2227.2228.5229.1229.3

226.2

Loans and leases in bank credit

Totalloans andleases 2

1,873.22,023.92,115.22,109.62,108.2

T 2,190.82,371.6

2,204.52,212.42,223.22,235.72,244.22,252.72,381.62,299.92,314.32,331.62,348.52,371.6

2,404.8

Commer-cial and

industrial

607.8639.0640.0619.7595.0584.5645.7

591.2592.4597.1603.0607.8611.3618.8623.5627.9634.3640.5C45.7

658.6

Beat estate

Total

674.5769.5854.2878.4898.7

r 938.6998.9

943.2942.9944.3948.8951.5957.5965.9973.4981.0985.8991.2998.9

1,013.4

Revolvinghomeequity

40.150.362.369.873.773.476.3

73.373.473.473.573.774.074.274.675.175.375.976.3

76.7

Other

634.5719.1791.9808.6825.0865.1922.6

869.9869.5870.9875.3877.8883.5891.7898.9905.9910.5915.3922.6

936.8

Consumer

357.8378.3383.3366.7358.8391.1449.7

394.8398.3402,6408.3412.5416.5423.5429.7435.0441.4444.4449.7

454.6

Security

40.941.744.954.063.285.873.5

81.383.084.379.078.176.277.275.069.771.271.873.5

71.6

Other

192.1195.4192.8190.8192.4190.9203.7

194.0195.7194.8196.5194.2191.2196.2198.3200.7198.9200.7203.7

206.5

1 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically char-tered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment com-panies, and foreign-related institutions. Data &re adjusted for breaks caused by ^classifications ofassets and liabilities.

2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (BPs) with, and loans to com-mercial banks in the United States.

NOTE.—Data for new series not yet available prior to 1988.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System,


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS


Period

1984198519861987198819891990199119921993

1992- InmIV

1993- InmIV

1994- Inmp

Sources

Total

511.4493.8538.8564.7634.2567.9535.5471.7560.5557.4

541.3570.7531.2598.9443.4548.8600.6636.8653.8656.8664.5

Internal *

336.3351.9336.7375.9404.3399.6411.6426.0438.4462.3

434.3432.9440.7445.6

436.4450.7476.4485.7

502.9500.4503.1

External

Total

175.0142.0202.1188.8229.9168.2123.945.7

122.295.1

107.0137.890.5

153.3

7.098.1

124.1151.1150.8156.4161.5

Credit market funds

Total

118.984.7

148.189.395.068.048.38.7

67.967.1

81.678.439.472.2

27.580.678.681.7

110.3114.475.9

Securitiesand

mortgages

-5.613.265.139.9

-4.7-37.6-20.1

96.167.081.2

94.395.331.047.2

83.968.0

101.971.1

12.436.7

-23.7

Loans andshort-term

paper

124.571.583.049.499.8

105.668.3

-87.4.9

-14.1

-12.7-16.9

8.325.056.412.723.310.697.977.799.6

Other 2

56.157.354.099.4

134.9100.275.637.054.328.0

25.559.451.181.1

-20.617.545.669.4

40.542.085.6

Uses

Total

495.4467.2501.7492.3575.8509.4488.7435.3527.8523.4

512.8528.7522.6547.0

426.1530.4550.0587.2

648.9652.0646.2

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

391.6370.2344.2361.5391.0401.1402.8379.8386.0440.4

362.1389.2394.1398.7

424.7441.5444.1451.2

474.7520.7535.2

Increase infinancialassets

103.897.0

157.5130.9184.8108.385.955.6

141.883.0

150.7139.5128.5148.3

1.488.9

105.9136.0174.2131.3111.0

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

16.026.737.172.458.458.446.736.432.834.0

28.442.08.6

51.9

17.318.450.549.5

4.84.8

18.3

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained Government.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,the U.S.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Period

1985- Dec1986- Dec1987- Dec1988- Dec 3

1989- Dec1990' Dec1991: Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec T

1994' JanPebMar

MavTJuneJuly

Sept . . . .Oct .Nov r.Dec T «

1995- Jan p

Installment credit outstanding (end of period)

Total

517,659572,006608,675662,553717,200734,898728,389731,098794,300911,311

798,844802,720813,750823,342836,936847,715854,469869,628879,961891,603904,757911,311

914,984

Automobile

210,238247,772266,295285,364291,531283,072259,594257,678282,036324,519

283,134284,447288,663293,018298,278303,526305,193309,721315,162318,036323,447324,519

324,230

Kevolving

121,758135,825153,064174,269199,162223,517245,281257,304287,875337,694

290,165292,604296,710301,260305,528309,472313,591321,365322,823327,707334,843337,694

342,406

Other 2

185,664188,408189,316202,921226,508228,309223,514216,117224,389249,098

225,545225,668228,376229,064233,130234,717235,685238,542241,976245,860246,467249,098

248,348

Net change in installment credit outstanding 1

Total

75,05754,34736,66953,878

(4)17,698

-6,5092,709

63,202117,011

4,5443,876

11,0309,592

13,59410,7796,753

15,15910,33311,64213,1546,554

3,673

Automobile

36,67437,53418,52319,069

(")— 8459

-23,4781 916

24,35842,483

1,0981,3134,2164,3555,2605,2481,6664,5285,4412,8755,4111,072

-289

Kevolving

21,47814,06717,23921,205

(4)24,35521,76412,02330,57149,819

2,2902,4394,1064,5504,2683,9444,1197,7731,4594,8837,1362,851

4,713

Other 2

16,9062,744

90813,605

(4)1,801

-4,7957 3978,272

24,709

1,156123

2,708688

4,0661,587

9682,8573,4343,884

6072,631

75x

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding 3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988month. and subsequent months.

2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc. * Because of breaks in series, net change not available.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates feii in February.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

A/ \

/

r'/

—

/-•./I \_.

I l l in ium1987

CORPORATE Aoa BONDS

(MOODY'S)

\ /•" V -'•» \-

TREASURY /BILLS\x

/r•v/

M i n i i i i i1988

\ /"^'V _

/ \

~\

— ' DISCOUNT

RATE

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK OF

NEW YORK

i t 1

1989

-••.

•" X.XI

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11990

^~_- N

X.

\

^ '4

\

ii ii1991

p-, .

T1--. -•••

i i i i i ! i i i i i1992

"X '"^^ 1

\ y

i1993

/'/

y\,/Hn n i l n i M

1994

•\

-

r

14

10

A

?

1995

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994

1994- Peb

May

JulyAueSeptOctNovDec

1995' JanFeb

Week ended:1995- Feb 4

111825

U.S. Treasury security yields

3-month bills(new issues) *

7.485.985.826.698.127.515.423.453.024.29

3.213.523.744.194.184.394.504.644.965.255.64

5.815.80

5.795.835.825.745.73

Constant maturities 2

3-year

9.647.067.688.268.558.266.825.304.446.27

4.835.405.996.346.276.486.506.697.047.447.71

7.667.25

7.417.397.287.076.95

10-year

10.627.688.398.858.498.557.867.015.877.09

5.976.486.977.187.107.307.247.467.747.967.81

7.787.47

7.627.567.487.367.27

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 3

9.187.387.737.767.247.256.896.415.636.19

5.445.936.286.266.146.196.196.336.506.966.76

6.536.24

6.386.226.206.176.08

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)

11.379.029.389.719.269.328.778.147.227.97

7.087.487.887.997.978.118.078.348.578.688.46

8.468.26

8.338.288.268.238.17

Primecommercial

paper,6 months *

8.016.396.857.688.807.955.853.803.304.93

3.624.084.404.924.865.135.195.325.706.016.62

6.636.38

6.586.386.386.306.28

Discount rate(N.Y. F.K.

Bank)*

7.696.335.666.206.936.985.453.253.003.60

3.00-3.003.00-3.003.00-3.003.00-3.503.50-3.503.50-3.503.50-4.004.00-4.004.00-4.004.00-4.754.75-4.75

4.75-4.754.75-5.25

4.75-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.25

Prime ratecharged by

banks4

9.938.338.219.32

10.8710.01

8.466.256.007.15

6.00-6.006.00-6.256.25-6.756.75-7.257.25-7.257.25-7.257.25-7.757.75-7.757.75-7.757.75-8.508.50-8.50

8.50-8.508.50-9.00

8.50-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.00

New-homemortgage

yields(FHFB)5

11.5510.179.319.19

10.1310.059.328.247.207.49

6.856.997.317.437.627.717.677.707.767.817.83

8.18

* Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De-

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges aswell as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in February.

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)

300

RO

r~S/

1 1 1 1 119

yy

'\

\^

1 1 1 1 187

/^

M i l l

19

/~"

I M I |

88

S

M i l l

19

/—"I

i i i i i89

\^

M i l l

19

•\V

M i l l

90

A\(NY

i i i i i19

^ '

SE)

M i l l

91

/~^~^~

i i i M19

, '

M M 1

92

^

i i i i i19

^

i i i i i93

^N -

19

•x~"""">1

i i i i i

P4

S

l l l l l19

M i l l

P5

JW

240

140

120

Rn

PER

20

15

10

5

0

CENT PERCE

EARNINGS-PRICE R

i i E

1987

SOURCES: NEW YORK

_ "

1 1 1

1988

STOCK EXCHANGE AN

--—__,

1 1 1

1989

3 STANDARD & POOR'S

1 " ^

1 1 1

1990

CORPORATION

ATIO ON COWv(S&P)

~TH1991

toN STOCKS

i i i1992

i i i1993

i i i1994

COUNCIL OF

i i i1995

-CONOMIC ADVISERS

NT20

15

10

5

0

Period

1985198619871988198919901991199219931994

1994: FebMar

MayT }

July. •>

SeptOctNovDec

1995- JanFeb

Week ended:1995- Feb 4

111825

Mar 4

Common stock prices 1

New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50, except asnoted) 2

Composite

108.09136.00161.70149.91180.02183.46206.r.1229.01249.58254.12

261.97257.32247.97249.56251.21249.29256.08257.61255.22252.48248.65

253.56261.86

256.89261.61262.45263.53263.55

Industrial

123.79155.85195.31180.95216.23225.78258.14284.62299.99315.25

322.41318.08304.48307.58308.66307.34316.55322.19321.53319.33313.92

319.93328.98

322.30328.15330.08331.46331.77

Transporta-tion

104.11119.87140.39134.12175.28158.62173.99201.09242.49247.29

276.67265.68250.43244.75246.64244.21244.67239.10230.71227.45218.93

230.25237.29

230.26232.63239.05242.91241.69

Utility 3

113.49142.72148.59143.53174.87181.20185.32198.91228.90209.06

220.85215.45210.08205.77206.54205.46211.26204.60203.35200.13200.02

201.16207.73

207.64209.53207.02206.91204.86

Finance

114.21147.20146.48127.26151.88133.26150.82179.26216.42209.73

217.12211.02208.12211.30215.89210.91214.77211.90203.33198.38195.25

201.05211.76

206.32212.00211.98213.21214.10

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 4

1,328.231,792.762,275.992,060.822,508.912,678.942,929.333,284.293,522.063,793.77

3,905.623,816.983,661.483,707.993,737.583,718.303,797.483,880.603,868.103,792.433,770.31

3,872.463,953.72

3,864.583,936.453,967.943,988.023,992.79

Standard &Poor's

compositeindex

(1941-43=10)5

186.84236.34286.83265.79322.84334.59376.18415.74451.41460.33

471.58463.81447.23450.90454.83451.40464.24466.96463.81461.01455.19

465.25481.92

472.15480.96483.19485.71485.48

Common stock yields(percent) 6

Dividend-price ratio

4.253.493.083.643.453.613.242.992.782.82

2.702.782.902.892.842.872.782.802.822.862.91

2.872.81

2.862.802.792.792.79

Earnings-price ratio

8.126.095.488.017.416.474.794.224.46

5.09

5.67

5.91

1 Average of daily closing prices.z includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NVSE.3 Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index

to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. AJ1 indexes shown here reflect the doubling.4 Includes 30 stocks.5 Includes 500 stocks.

8 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1995, there was a deficit of $58.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $76.3 billion ayear earlier.

BILLIOh1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

0

-300

-400

45 OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DC

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS --

OUTLAYS-' _ _- — ~

-.-'"*"' ^^

_„-.-"" _^-—

----''"' — —-— r- " "_ '""'' RECEIPTS -^

^^-'

/] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 |\V \l

^ - """"~--

*" ^~~~^~-— —__-—— -"~~~^

/I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N

^ 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ^

FISCAL YEARS

JLLARS1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

0

100

-200

-300

-400

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

197619771978197919801981198219831984

19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995 (estimates)

Cumulative total, first 4months: l

Fiscal year 1994Fiscal year 1995

Total

Receipts

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,090.51,153.51,257.71,346.4

410.1439.3

Outlays

371.8409.2458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4851.8

946.4990.3

1,003.91,064.11,143.21,252.71,323.41,380.91,408.71,460.91,538.9

486.4498.2

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-73.7-53.7

59 2-40.7

73 8-79.0

-128.0207 8

-185.4

212 3-221.2

149 8-155.2-152.5-221.4-269.2-290.4-255.1-203.2

192 5

-76.3-58.9

On-budget

Receipts

231.7278.7314.2365.3403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

547.9568.9640.7667.5727.0749.7760.4788.0841.6922.7995.2

308.7332.4

Outlays

302.2328.5369.1404.1476.6543.1594.4661.3686.0

769.6806.8810.1861.4932.3

1,027.61,081.81,128.51,142.11,181.51,246.9

402.2409.3

Surplusor deficit

(-)

70 5-49.8

549-38.7-72.7-74.0

-120.1-208.0-185.7

-221.7-238.0-169.3-194.0-205.2-278.0-321.4-340.5-300.5-258.8-251.8

-93.6-77.0

Off-budget

Receipts

66.476.885.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1

186.2200.2213.4241.5263.7281.7293.9302.4311.9335.0351.3

101.5106.9

Outlays

69.680.789.7

100.0114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8

176.8183.5193.8202.7210.9225.1241.7252.3266.6279.4292.0

84.288.8

Surplusor deficit

(-)

3 2-3.9-4.3-2.0-1.1-5.0-7.9

.2

.3

9.416.719.638.852.856.652.250.145.355.759.3

17.318.1

Gross Federal debt(end of period)

Total

629.0706.4776.6829.5909.1994.8

1,137.31,371.71,564.7

1,817.52,120.62,346.12,601.32,868.03,206.63,598.54,002.14,351.44,643.74,961.5

4,474.44,762.8

Held bythe public

477.4549.1607.1640.3709.8785.3919.8

1,131.61,300.5

1,499.91,736.71,888.72,050.82,189.92,410.72,688.12,998.83,247.53,432.23,640.1

3,329.53,505.6

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.

NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year1996, issued February 6, 1995.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1995, receipts were $29.2 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $11.8billion higher.

BILLIOr700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

•JS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DC

RECEIPTS

T_ \

INCOME JAXES TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONSOTHER RECEIPTS \

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

OUTLAYS „_--"•"

^^^ """

NONDEFENSE\ ---'

>„.--"

. ""

NATIONAL DEFENSE

\

A 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NV 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

J INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.OURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

5LLARS700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

197619771978 ....19791980 ...19811982 ...19831984

198519861987198819891990199119921993 ...19941995 (estimates)

Cumulative total, first 4 months: l

Fiscal year 1994Fiscal year 1995

On-budget and off-budget receipts

Total

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,090.51,153.51,257.71,346.4

410.1439.3

Indi-vidualincometaxes

131.6157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9298.4

334.5349.0392.6401.2445.7466.9467.8476.0509.7543.1588.5

203.7214.0

Corpo-ration

incometaxes

41.454.960.065.764.661.149.237.056.9

61.363.183.994.5

103.393.598.1

100.3117.5140.4150.9

36.539.7

Socialinsur-ancetaxesand

contri-butions

90.8106.5121.0138.9157.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2283.9303.3334.3359.4380.0396.0413.7428.3461.5484.4

136.4146.9

Other

34.336.637.740.850.669.569.365.671.8

73.073.174.378.982.390.992.3

100.598.0

112.8122.7

33.538.7

On-budget and off-budget outlays

Total

371.8409.2458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4851.8

946.4990.3

1,003.91,064.11,143.21,252.71,323.41,380.91,408.71,460.91,538.9

486.4498.2

National defense

Total

89.697.2

104.5116.3134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7273.4282.0290.4303.6299.3273.3298.4291.1281.6271.6

93.386.1

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

87.995.1

102.3113.6130.9153.9180.7204.4220.9

245.2265.5274.0281.9294.9289.8262.4286.9278.6268.6260.2

88.881.8

Inter-nationalaffairs

6.46.47.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.214.211.610.59.6

13.815.916.117.217.118.7

8.38.8

Health

15.717.318.520.523.226.927.428.630.4

33.535.940.044.548.457.771.289.599.4

107.1115.1

34.636.8

Medi-care

15.819.322.826.532.139.146.652.657.5

65.870275.178.985.098.1

104.5119.0130.6144.7157.3

45.949.8

Incomesecuri-

ty

60.861.061.566.486.599.7

107.7122.6112.7

128.2119.8123.3129.3136.0147.0170.3196.9207.3214.0223.0

70.167.1

Socialsecuri-

ty

73.985.193.9

104.1118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6198.8207.4219.3232.5248.6269.0287.6304.6319.6336.1

103.2108.3

Netinter-est

26.729.935.542.652.568.885.089.8

111.1

129.5136.0138.7151.8169.3184.2194.5199.4198.8203.0234.2

67.075.8

Other

82.893.0

114.7120.2131.4133.5125.4122.3118.6

131.8142.1125.9139.4158.8203.9224.8173.9159.7173.8182.8

64.165.5

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.

NOTE.—Data (except us noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year

1996, issued February 6. 1995.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter of 1994, Federal receipts rose $8.1 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $16.9billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $25.1 billion; receipts data areincomplete.

BIUJONS OF DOUARS

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

200

-200

SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

EXPENDITURES -

-400 I

1982 1984 1986

RECEIPTS

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT I - ]

1987 1988 1989

CALENDAR YEARS

1990 1992

BIUJONS OF DOUARS

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

1993

800

«00

400

200

-200

1994

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

Fiscal year:199219931994

Calendar year:1992 .'.19931994 '

1982: IV1983- IV1984: IV1985- IV . . .1986: IV1987- IV1988- IV1989- IV1990- IV1991: IV1992- IV1993- I

ninIV

1994- I ,IIHIIV ' .

Federal Government receipts

Total

1,161.21,241.01,349.4

1,178.31,265.7

632.3671.1739.8803.6856.8943.5

1,000.61,068.31,115.81,140.51,219.91,212.71,263.71,272.71,313.61,337.41,380.71,388.8

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

484.6511.8552.1

489.5520.35656301.6290.5323.5351.8371.7414.8420.0470.1483.9477.3511.6497.2519.8527.5536.8550.2571.1566.9574 3

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accru-als

112.4134.6161.2

115.6143.0

45.565.467.077.091,4

109.7118.5111.3115.1109.6122.6132.1141.8140.2157.8151.8166.3172.4

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

81.182.993.3

81.384.691.249.255.458.256.854.859.561.462.267.182.983.881.983.582.390.790.490.491.991.9

Contri-butions

forsocialinsur-ance

483.1511,7542.8

491.9517.8555.1235.9259.8291.1318.0338.8359.4400.7424.7449.7470.7501.9501.6518.8522.7528.3545.1553.0557.6564.7

Federal Government expenditures

Total

1,435.91,495.51,521.9

1,460.91,507.01,537.6

815.7855.7926.6990.8

1,034.31,096.31,135.51,209.81,306.91,386.31,492.01,496.21,500.61,497.61,533.71,513.71,525.91,542.81,567.9

Pur-chases

445.2446.3435.1

449.0443.6437.3281.4289.7324.7356.9373.1392.5392.0405.1436.5438.3454.8446.9445.2442.7439.8437,8435.1444.3431.8

Trans-fer

pay-ments

607.4651.5674.4

625.3658.0682.2346.0351.1360.1383.8404.2419.7444.5488.8526.6566.2643.1644.8652.8660.2674.1671.5676.2683.0698.3

Grants-in-aid

toStateandlocal

govern-ments

168.2180.7197.9

172.2186.11B7.284.386.997.7

104.5103.8102.9113.0121.9137.6162.6176.6176.7182.9187.8197.0190.0194.4200.3204.1

Netinter-estpaid

188.9183.5187.0

186.8183.6191.686.899.2

122.3129.2131.1143.1151.2168.9174.4191.6183.1182.5184.8183.6183.5179.3188.8194.4203.9

Subsi-dies lesscurrentsurplus

ofGovern-

mententer-prises

26.133.427.6

27.635.729.217.328.822.216.422.137.834.925.032.027.734.545.235.123.339.335.131.320.929.8

Less:Wage

accrualsless

disburse-ments

0.0.0.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.6

.0

.02.0.0.2.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0

Surplusor deficit

(-),nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-274.72544

- 172.5

-282.72414

1834-184.6- 186.8

187 2-1775- 152.7

134 8-141.5-191.0-245.8-272.1

2835-237.0

2249-220.1

1762-145.1

1540

Source: Department «f Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

19861987 ....19881989199019911992 ....19931994 ".

1993- OctNov ....Dec

1994: JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOctNovDec

1995- Jan "

Industrial production (1987=100; seasonally adjusted)

UnitedStates

95.3100.0104.4106.0106.0104.3107.6112.0118 1

112.7113.7114.7

114.7115.6116.6116.7117.4118.0118.2119.1119.0

'119.5' 120.4' 121.4

121 9

Canada

95.4100.0105.3105.2101.797.598.4

103.2

104.4104.8104.6

105.0104.7

r 106.2' 107.6' 108.7

109.9110.5111.7

'111.5111.6113.2

Japan

96.7100.0109.4115.7120.6122.9115.8111.0112.2

107.5109.0108.3

108.8108.3113.0110.5109.4112.3111.2115.7113.5112.5

'115.7115.2

France

98.0100.0104.6108.9111.0111.0109.7105.6

106.4107.1106.6

107.3107.4107.9110.2110.7110.3112.4112.4112.2111.4

Germany

99.6100.0103.9108.8114.5117.9115.6107.2110.6

107.3106.7107.3

105.6107.5108.1109.9109.8111.6113.3110.3111.5112.4

'112.7114.8

Italy

96.2100.0105.9109.2109.4108.4108.2

'105.5110.7

104.9104.2104.5

103.4105.1105.5111.7107.5109.4111.6116.8112.4

'112.7118.8110.6

UnitedKingdom

96.2100.0104.8107.0106.7102.5102.0104.5109.9

105.1106.6106.1

107.2'107.8'107.3

109.3'109.7'109.9

110.6110.8

'112.0'112.5'110.9

111.7

Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA)

UnitedStates'

109.6113.6118.3124.0130.7136.2140.3144.5148.2

145.7145.8145.8

146.2146.7147.2147.4147.5148.0148.4149.0149.4149.5149.7149.7

150.3

Canada

113.4118.4123.2129.3135.5143.1145.2147.9148.2

148.4149.1148.8

148.8147.7147.6147.6147.3147.6148.2148.3148.4148.2149.0149.2

Japan

104.8104.9105.7108.0111.4115.0116.9118.5119.3

119.2118.5118.6

118.7118.7119.3119.5119.6119.2118.6119.2119.5120.0119.7119.4

France

117.2120.9124.2128.6133.0137.2140.6143.5

'145.9

144.3144.4144.3

144.5144.9145.2145.6145.9145.9145.9145.9146.3146.7146.7146.7

Germany

104.7104.9106.3109.2112.1116.0120.6125.6129.4

126.4126.7126.9

128.0128.5128.7129.0129.3129.5129.6129.7129.8129.9

'130.1130.4

131.0

Italy

128.5134.4141.1150.4159.5169.8178.8186.3193.6

188.6189.5189.5

190.6191.3191.7192.2192.9193.3193.6194.2194.7195.8196.5197.2

197.9

UnitedKingdom

114.9119.7125.6135.4148.2156.9162.7165.3169.3

166.6166.4166.7

166.0167.0167.4169.4170.0170.0169.2170.0170.4170.6170.7171.5

171.5

1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysisand International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

198619871988198919901991199219931994 »

1993: Dec

1994: JanFebMaiAprMayJune ....JulyAugSeptOctNov '....Dec "....

Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)

BOPbasis

223.3250.2320.2362.1389.3416.9440.4456.9502.8

41.0

38.537.442.140.440.342.040.144.143.643.444.946.7

Census basis (by end-use category) l

Total,Census

227.2254.1322.4363.8393.6421.7448.2465.1512.7

41.7

39.238.142.841.141.142.841.045.144.444.345.747.7

Foods,feeds,and

ages

22.324.332.337.235.135.740.340.642.0

3.7

3.33.23.43.13.33.13.13.73.73.94.14.3

Indus-trialsup-plies

materi-als

57.366.785.199.3

104.4109.7109.1111.8121.3

9.6

9.08.7

10.69.69.99.8

10.310.710.310.610.711.3

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-

motive

75.886.2

109.2138.8152.7166.7175.9181.7205.3

16.9

16.015.317.316.716.617.716.317.717.816.918.118.9

Auto-motivevehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

21.724.629.334.837.440.047.052.457.3

4.5

4.44.44.84.74.54.74.35.25.05.04.95.6

Con-sumergoods(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

14.217.723.136.443.345.951.454.760.0

4.7

4.54.54.94.74.85.14.95.35.25.45.55.3

Goods: Imports (customs value)

BOPbasis

368.4409.8447.2477.4498.3491.0536.5589.4669.1

50.1

50.551.053.553.754.556.056.158.258.058.460.059.4

Census basis (by end-use category)

Total,Censusbasis 2

365.4406.2441.0473.2495.3488.5532.7580.7663.8

49.4

50.150.252.453.154.055.855.857.957.858.259.759.1

Foodsfeeds,and

ages

24.424.824.825.126.626.527.527.931.0

2.3

2.42.42.52.52.52.62.62.72.72.72.62.7

Indus-trialsup-pliesand

materi-als

101.3111.0118.3132.3143.2131.6138.6145.6162.0

11.5

11.711.912.712.813.214.014.414.714.314.014.514.2

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-

motive

71.884.5

101.4113.3116.4120.7134.3152.4184.5

13.9

14.114.014.514.714.915.115.215.316.516.617.016.8

Auto-motivevehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

78.285.287.786.187.385.791.8

102.4118.6

8.7

8.78.89.59.59.5

10.29.9

11.19.9

10.210.710.7

Con-sumergoods(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

79.488.795.9

102.9105.7108.0122.7134.0146.3

11.3

11.611.511.311.812.112.112.012.512.612.812.912.9

Services(BOP basis)

Ex-ports

86.197.8

110.0126.8147.2163.2176.6184.8193.6

15.8

15.115.416.315.616.016.316.216.216.516.516.716.9

Im-ports

79.890.297.9

101.9117.0117.6120.9128.0135.4

11.2

11.011.511.810.810.911.111.211.111.411.511.611.6

Balance of trade(exports minus imports)

Goods,Censusbasis

-138.3— 152.1-118.5— 109.4-101.7

— 66.7-84.5

— 115.6— 151.1

-7.8

-10.9-12.1-9.6

-12.0-12.9-13.0-14.8-12.8-13.4-13.8-14.1— 11.4

BOP basis

Goods

— 145.1— 159.6— 127.0— 115.2— 109.0

— 74.1—96.1

— 132.6— 166.3

-9.1

-12.0-13.5-11.4-13.3-14.3-14.0-16.0-14.1-14.4-15.1-15.1-12.7

Serv-ices

6.37.6

12.124.930.245.655.756.958.2

4.6

4.13.94.54.85.15.25.05.05.15.05.15.3

Goodsand

services

— 138.8— 152.0— 114.8—90.3— 78.8— 28.5—40.4— 75.7

— 108.1

-4.5

-7.8-9.6-6.9-8.6-9.2-8.8

-11.0-9.1-9.4

-10.1-10.0-7.3

1 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.2 Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.

NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOF data shownhere are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).

35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter of 1994, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $44.6 billion, from $41.6 billion in the secondquarter. The current account deficit rose to $41.7 billion, from $37.9 billion in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

15

-45

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *

15

1984* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1993 1994


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)]

Period

1981 .1982198319841985 .198619871988198919901991 .19921993 .

1992: mIV

1993: IIIIIIIV

1994- Inm p . ...

Merchandise *

Exports

237,044211,157201,799219,926215,915223,344250,208320,230362,116389,303416,913440,361456,866

109,546113,744

111,664113,787111,736119,679

118,018122,683127,817

Imports

-265,067-247,642-268,901-332,418-338,088-368,425-409,765-447,189-477,365—498,336-490,981-536,458-589,441

-136,906- 140,080

-140,855-147,514- 148,224-152,848

- 154,980-164,315-172,450

Netbalance

-28,023— 36,485-67,102

— 112,492-122,173— 145,081- 159,557-126,959-115,249-109,033

— 74,068-96,097

-132,575

-27,360-26,336

-29,191-33,727-36,488-33,169

-36,962-41,632—44,633

Services

Netmilitarytransac-tions 2 3

844112563

-2,5474,390

-5,1813 814

-6,3156 726

-7,567-5,485-3,034

-763

-5251 277

-105128

-87444

-337177376

Nettraveland

trans-portationreceipts

144992

-4,2278438

-9,7987,382

-6,4811,5115,0718,978

17,95720,88520,840

5,1385,005

5,3075,5655,2304,740

4,0985,3444,843

Otherserv-ices,net

12,55213,20914,09514,27714,26618,85517,90019,96126,55828,81133,12437,86236,773

9,9609,262

9,5679,2219,0878,897

8,8749,4659,903

Balanceon goods

andservices

-16,172-24,156-57,796- 109,200- 122,095- 138,789

151,981-114,824

90,345-78,810

28,472—40,384

75,725

-12,787-13,346

-14,422- 19,070-22,258-19,976

-24,328-26,646-29,511

Investment income

Receiptson U.S.assetsabroad

86,52986,20084,778

104,07592,76090,85899,239

127,414152,517160,300136,914114,449113,856

27,86426,158

27,72728,80128,51328,816

29,88831,87835,399

Paymentson foreignassets in

U.S.

-53,626-56,412-53,700-74,036-73,087-79,095-91,302

-115,806- 138,858-139,574-122,081-109,909-109,910

— 26,644-26,887

-25,872-28,133— 26,498-29,406

-30,699-34,687-39,347

Net

32,90329,78831,07830,03819,67311,7637,937

11,60713,65920,72514,8334,5403,946

1,220-729

1,855668

2,015-590

-811-2,809-3,948

Balanceon goods,services,

andincome

16,7325,632

-26,719— 79,161- 102,422- 127,026-144,045-103,217-76,686-58,085-13,639-35,844-71,779

-11,567- 14,075

-12,567- 18,402-20,243-20,566

-25,139-29,455-33,459

Unilateraltransfers,

net4

-11,702-17,075-17,741-20,612-22,950-24,176-23,052-24,977-26,134-33,663

6,687-32,042-32,117

-7,040- 10,308

-7,283-7,200-7,613

-10,021

-7,178-8,451-8,263

Balanceon

currentaccount

5,030-11,443-44,460-99,773

-125,372-151,201- 167,097-128,194- 102,820-91,748-6,952

-67,886- 103,896

- 18,607— 24,383

-19,850-25,602-27,856-30,587

-32,317-37,906-41,722

1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.2 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditu

(imports).

3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.4 Includes transfers of goods and sen-ices under U.S. r

See p. 37 for continuation of table.

Hilary grant programs.

36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $3.5 billion in the third quarter

of 1994, in contrast to a decrease of $15.2 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners

reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $16.8 billion in the third quarter, following an

increase of $25.5 billion in the second quarter.

BILUONSOFDOUARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS •

100

-20

-40

-60

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931992: m ....

IV1993: I

nm ....IV

1994: Inmp...

U.S. assets[increase/capit

Total

-114,147- 122,335-58,735-34,917-39,225

-104,818-71,443-99,360

-168,744-70,363-51,512

61 510-147,898- 10,806-29,395- 12,659

35 966-35,651

63 622-48,236

7 031-20,394

U.S.officialreserve

assets 3 5

-5,175-4,965-1,196-3,131-3,858

3129,1493 912

-25,2932 1585,7633,901

-1,3791,9521,542

98382254.5

-673-59

3,537-165

abroad, netsi outflow (— )

Other TJ.S.Govern-

mentassets

-5,097-6,131-5,006-5,489

2 821-2,022

1,0062,9671,2592,3072,900

-1,652-306-394

701

488281

-192321490462

-118

]

U.S.privateassets

- 103,875-111,239-52,533-26,298-32,547103 109

-81,59798414

-144,71070512

-60,175-63,759

-146,213

12 364-30,236

12 164-36,507

34915-62,628-48,667-11,030

20 111

Foreign assets in the U.S., net[increase/capital inflow (+)]

Total

83,03292,41883,380

113,932141,183226,111242,983240,265218,490122,19298,134

146,504230,69829,93542,58116,77251,82971,93490,16295,07849,25767,439

Foreignofficialassets 3

4,9603,5935,8453,140

-1,11935,64845,38739,7588,503

33,91017,19940,85871,681

-7,4176,363

10,96817,49219,25923,96211,5308,925

17,496

Otherforeignassets

78,07288,82677,534

110,792142,301190,463197,596200,507209,98788,28280,935

105,646159,01737,35236,2185,804

34,33752,67566,20083,54840,33249,943

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDKs)

1,093

Statistical discrepancy

Total (sumof the items

with signreversed)

24,99241,35919,81520,75823,41529,908

—4,443-12,712

53,07539,919

-39,670-17,108

21,096-522

11,19715,7379,739

-8,4274,047

-14,525-4,320-5,323

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

-6,375966

6,105435

-6,643103

5,810639

-6,919

U.S. officialreserve

assets, net 5

(unadjusted,end ofperiod)

30,07433,95833,74734,93443,18648,51145,79847,80274,60983,31677,72171,32373,44278,52771,32374,37873,96875,83573,442

76,80975,73276,532

5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve posi-tion in the IMF.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING h*

Gross Domestic Product 1Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product 2Changes in GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Implicit Price Deflators and Price Indexes 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment in 1987 Dollars 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries , 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Installment Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:,

p Preliminary.' Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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