Economic CalendarAugust 28, 2015 to September 1, 2015

Jacob Nielsen

GDP Q2 (Aug 27th)Most significant measure of economic growth

Total growth rate of economic output

Lagging indicator

Real GDP (adjusted for inflation) increased .6% up from .4% in the previous quarter

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

27-Aug 8:30 ETGDP-Second

Estimate Q2 3.7% 3.1% 2.3%Very Good

Personal IncomeMeasures income from all sources

Largest component is wages and salaries

Both an indicator of economic growth and future consumer spending

Not an indicator of consumption but rather possible consumption

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

28-Aug 8:30 ET Personal Income Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Neutral

PCEPersonal Consumption Expenditure

Inflationary measure broken down into 3 parts: durables, nondurables, and services

Differs from CPI in the fact that the index is a chain index that accounts for changing consumer behavior rather than fixed basket of goods

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

28-Aug 8:30 ETPCE Prices-

Core Jul 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Neutral

PCE ContinuedPurchases of Durables: +1.3% compared to a

decrease of .9% in June

Purchases of Non-Durables: +0.1% (same as June)

Purchases of Services: +0.1% compared to .2% in June)

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Survey conducted by University of Michigan that asks consumers about expectations of the overall economy

Indicator of how consumers feel about the economy

Downside is that it’s a regional survey (even though Michigan is a major manufacturing region)

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

28-Aug 8:30 ETMichigan Sentiment Aug 91.9 93.0 92.9 Negative

Chicago PMIChicago Purchasing Manager’s Index

Regional manufacturing survey that measures manufacturers sentiment

Survey is important because it is released just prior to the national ISM index reading

Surveys a variety of managers and asks them to indicate if performance is better, worse, or neutral compared to previous quarter

Chicago PMI Continued

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

31-Aug 9:45 ET Chicago PMI Aug 54.4 54.7 54.7 Negative

ISM IndexSurvey conducted by Institute of Supply

Management of 300 manufacturing firms

Asks managers about general sentiment with regards to employment, production, supplier deliveries, and new orders

A number greater than 50 indicates growth, and any number less than 50 indicates contraction

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

1-Sep 10:00 ET ISM Index Aug 51.10 52.60 52.70 Negative

Construction SpendingShows change in layout for construction

spending across residential, non-residential, and public projects

Measure is extremely volatile month to month so the indicator is not a great measure of economic progress

Quarterly trends much more valuable measure

Date Time Statistic For Actual Market Expects Prior Sentiment

1-Sep10:00

ETConstruction

Spending Jul 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% Positive

Yuan/USD

Euro/USD

USD/Yen

Oil Futures

Oil 5 Day

Oil Cont.Oil continues to be extremely volatile

Was up nearly 8 percent yesterday on news that US inventories had decreased and OPEC was to hold conference focusing on solutions to the oil price

Energy markets will continue to follow with the oil price volatility

10 Year Treasury

Fed Jackson Hole SummitConcerned with volatility in foreign markets

September rate hike unlikely

Main question focuses on inflation rate

Dollar will continue to strengthen against other currencies putting upward pressure on inflation already

Seems that a rate hike may be closer to December

Chinese MarketsChinese manufacturing purchasing manager’s

index fell to three year low

World continues to doubt prospective economic output of the world’s second largest economy

Will this cause china to devalue currency even further?

S&P 5 Day