and developing countries) and inspection ofpotential manufacturing facilities.Resistanceto intrusive inspections is still being encour-aged by Western pharmaceutical companiesconcerned about their proprietary informa-tion and the possible removal of biologicalspecimens collected on the swab samplestaken by visiting inspectors.

Having been involved personally in theinitial debriefing of the Russian biochemistand hearing his account of his work onplague — which, I confess, I found hard tobelieve at first — it is valuable to have Mangold and Goldberg describe how his evidence was used. What they do not say isthat the British government,after intensivelyinterrogating the scientist, was prepared tolet him fend for himself in a foreign country,knowing little English, and surviving onSocial Security payments. Fortunately,protests to the Foreign Office eventuallysecured funds for his retraining and theopportunity to work in a different field.

South Africa and North Korea also featurein the book.Research on biological warfare inSouth Africa was not far advanced. Althoughthere is some evidence for the successfulinsertion into Escherichia coli of the gene toexpress botulinal toxin,work on genetic engi-neering was limited. Much of the SouthAfrican work was low tech — lacing food anddrink with a range of bacteria. Plague Warsputs this work into context and points outthat, through James Bond-type assassinationacts, South Africa, under its former primeminister P. W. Botha, may have killed 200 ofits enemies through bacterial infections.

North Korea is almost a postscript toPlague Wars. Intelligence about its interest inbiological warfare is limited, but the subjectof serious war-games. Iraq, on the otherhand, provides much food for thought forthose concerned about proliferation. As themost intensively inspected country for anybiological weapons-related activity, there isconcern that much may still remain hidden.

The issues raised by inspections in Iraq arecomplex and only sketched out in PlagueWars.Similarly,other issues that fuelled suspi-cions on both sides during the 1980s, such as the claim that the Soviet Union, or a clientstate, was dispersing fungal toxins from aircraft in Laos and Cambodia as a form ofbiological warfare, is not mentioned. Thisweapon, notoriously known as Yellow Rain,was subsequently,and to much hilarity,shownto be nothing other than bee excrement.

But there is little light relief in biologicalwarfare, and so any respite is welcome.Plague Wars, as befits the work of seriousinvestigative journalists, provides little tojoke about. Excellent in parts, less so in oth-ers, the book is a good, sober introduction tothe biological warfare we think we know. ■

Alastair Hay is in the Unit of MolecularEpidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.

Ecological Scrabbleplayed in earnestFragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commonsby Simon LevinPerseus: $27, £18.95

Jeffrey A. Harvey

It takes no more than a casual observer tonotice the many tell-tale signs that the bio-sphere is in trouble. A range of environmen-tal articles appear almost daily in the world’spress revealing the extent of the problems —rising global temperatures, a thinning ozonelayer, acid rain, air and water pollution, andthe rapid depletion of natural capital, such asfertile soils, fresh water and biodiversity.These pieces are punctuated by the soberingknowledge that global changes are the resultof the collective actions of one of its evolvedinhabitants,Homo sapiens.

Why should this concern us? In spite ofthe technological strides made over the pastcentury, the dawning of a new millenniumcoincides with vast gaps in our knowledge ofmany key ecological processes. For instance,considering the scale of the current prob-lems, it is particularly alarming that ourunderstanding of ecosystem functioning isso rudimentary. Consequently, we still haveno idea how much biological diversity can belost before systems begin to collapse, andwith them the vital services that permithuman society to flourish.

Simon Levin’s book takes the reader on anintellectual journey through the naturalworld, exploring the evolution of biodiversi-ty, and explaining what its loss may mean forhumanity.Fragile Dominion is one of the first

books — certainly the finest— to attempt to synthe-

size existing ecologicaltheory and place it in thecontext of ecosystemevolution, assembly andfunction.

Levin’s introductoryoverview of the current

predicament sets the stage for the rest of thebook, which addresses six fundamental questions. What patterns exist in nature?What roles do the environment and historyplay in shaping these patterns? How doecosystems assemble themselves? How doesevolution, working on individual organisms,shape these assemblages? What is the rela-tionship between ecosystem structure andfunction? Does evolution increase or de-crease the resiliency of an ecosystem? Thesequestions culminate in the final chapter, inwhich Levin formulates eight command-ments for managing the global environmentso that it continues to provide the conditionsthat nurture life and humanity.

Levin argues that patterns we see innature are governed by a number of intrinsicand extrinsic rules working on different spa-tial and temporal scales. Which species exist,where and why, depends on the dynamicinterplay between adaptation to the physicaland chemical environment on the one handand interactions among the organisms with-in a defined community on the other. Levinpoints out that, although regularities occur,the patterns we see in nature are the by-prod-uct of infinite possibilities. History andchance are therefore also vitally important.Consequently, as Stephen J. Gould once said,a second roll of the evolutionary dice wouldyield a profoundly different outcome.Indeed, one of the recurring themes in thebook is that of heterogeneity, and how it is enhanced by local processes such as disturbance and uncertainty, which mediatecompetition and natural selection.

Unquestionably, Levin saves his mostimportant discussion for the later chapters.One of the most debated areas in modernecology concerns our understanding of therelationship between diversity and ecosys-tem functioning. One line of thought sug-gests that the health and stability of ecosys-tems is correlated with species number, andthat a reduction in diversity may compro-mise the integrity of the system. Anotherargues that ecosystem properties are influ-enced by the functional traits of dominantspecies, or the composition of functionalgroups, meaning that many species may be

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Micoureus demerarae, perched here, is one ofSouth America’s largest mouse opossums.Mammals of ecologically diverse South

America are catalogued in Mammals ofthe Neotropics, Volume 3: The CentralNeotropics: Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Brazilby John F. Eisenberg and Kent H. Redford

(University of Chicago Press, $80, £56).

A South Americantail or two

© 2000 Macmillan Magazines Ltd

superfluous to the needs of the system.Levin concludes that each model is, to

some extent, correct. Thus, whereas ecosys-tem processes may reflect the activities of afew dominant species, more diverse assem-blages may contain the most productivespecies. However, Levin emphasizes that sys-tem resilience is evolutionarily reinforced incomplex food webs through multiple inter-actions and feedback loops. The importanceof dominant species for system functioningmay therefore critically depend on inter-actions with their apparently less influentialneighbours. Indeed, a quarter of a centuryago ecologist Daniel Janzen said that the ultimate extinction is the extinction of eco-logical interactions. There is a subtle lessonhere for ecologists.

Throughout the book, Levin translatescomplex ecological jargon into more access-ible language by invoking the use of collo-quial models and analogies. There are somememorable gems in these pages: the assem-bly of ecological systems is played out in hisgame of“Ecological Scrabble”; cheese mouldis used as a metaphor for the spread ofinvasive species;Levin’s desk is actually a self-organized ecological system, complete withdominant species (ballpoint pens) and lessimportant organisms (paperweights). How-ever, Levin does not shy away from some ofthe recent advances in current ecologicaltheory. Working from an area close to hisheart, he uses innovative models to describevarious ecosystem properties. Two of thebest examples are Per Bak’s sandpiles to elu-cidate systems in self-organized criticality;and interactive particulate systems modelsto define assembly rules, which have alsobeen used elsewhere to illustrate a range ofdiverse phenomena.

There are many take-home messages inFragile Dominion. Clearly, since we know solittle about the function of the ecological sys-tems underpinning our own existence, itshould be patently obvious that tinkeringwith them poses substantial risks. We knowenough about natural systems to realize thatour continued assault brings them closer tothe edge. Levin argues that we must view thebiosphere as an integrated complex system,with the working components being thespecies that comprise it. Only in this way canwe truly appreciate how the system worksand ensure that it does not fail. I recommendthis book highly; it contains many fascinat-ing insights into the workings of nature’smachinery that will enlighten the non-expert while providing a perspective for sci-entists across a range of disciplines. Alwaysthought-provoking, sometimes disturbing,yet never pessimistic, Fragile Dominiondeserves to be widely read. ■

Jeffrey A. Harvey is in the Department ofMultitrophic Interactions, Centre for TerrestrialEcology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Postbus40, 6666 ZG Heteren, The Netherlands.

Turned out nice againThe Change in the Weather:People, Weather, and the Science of Climateby William K. StevensDelacorte: 2000. 432 pp. $24.95

Mojib Latif

The serious weather extremes observedthroughout the world in recent years havegenerated a lively debate about anthropo-genic (human-induced) climate change.Theproblem has reached high priority on theagenda of international politics: in 1997,84 countries signed an agreement known asthe Kyoto Protocol, aiming to reduce emis-sions of heat-trapping trace gases into theatmosphere. Yet one school of thoughtclaims that there’s nothing to worry about.Who is most likely to be right,and why?

In this timely book, William K. Stevensreviews not only the findings that led to theKyoto Protocol, but also the entire science of climate research, from its infancy whenLewis Fry Richardson developed the methods on which modern weather and climate models are based, to the present-daystate of the art. Numerous interviews withclimate scientists and others involved in thedebate add to the clearly explained scientificfindings to bring the book to life — one canalmost feel the temperature rising as onereads.

Stevens doesn’t hide his belief in the mainstream view — that anthropogenic climate change is a major issue and that itseffects can already be detected with relatively

high probability. However, he devotes some time to reviewing the views of the “contrarians”who claim that climate-changemodels are seriously flawed and thereforethat the projections are no cause for concern.

Stevens is rather optimistic about thedegree to which one can detect the impacts ofglobal warming on weather extremes, some-times seeming unable to distinguish betweenresearch results and scientific speculation.Another weakness is that his introductiontakes in the history of the Earth, the develop-ment of its climate and the evolution of thehuman race — an interesting outline,but toolong in this context and distracting from theclimate-change debate.

The rest of this very well-written andaccurate book, however, addresses the prob-lem comprehensively, including its socialand economic aspects. Stevens has an excel-lent understanding of the processes withinthe climate system and succeeds in commu-nicating this knowledge in an understand-able, easy-to-read style. He explains clearlythe concepts and physical principles onwhich climate research is based, while high-lighting the uncertainties in model projec-tions of the future.

Overall, The Change in the Weather is auseful contribution to the climate-changedebate, ideal for students wishing to find outmore about the field of climate research ingeneral and anthropogenic climate changein particular. A well-balanced assessment ofthe debate, this book provides a solid basisfor discussion and can be recommended toreaders outside the field, with or without ascientific background. ■

Mojib Latif is at the Journal of Climate,Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.

book reviews

814 NATURE | VOL 404 | 20 APRIL 2000 | www.nature.com

Going Insideby John McCroneFaber & Faber, £9.99“John McCrone’s Going Inside is far superior tothe vast majority of recent tomes on cognitiveneuroscience for the general reader. He roundsup the usual suspects, but at least he does so withsome care.”John C. Marshall, Nature 400, 132(1999)

Gout: The Patrician Maladyby Roy Porter & G. S. RousseauYale University Press, £13.95, $16.95 “Although Roy Porter and G. S. Rousseau notethe current expansion of gout to countries where it was once little known, as a ‘disease ofcivilization’, they are less concerned with itsmodern position than its cultural heritage …Underneath its fashionable phraseology, whichthe reader will appreciate according to taste, thisentertaining book succeeds very well as an

old-fashioned treatise on medical hubris.”Anne Crowther, Nature 396, 37–38 (1998)

A History of Molecular Biologyby Michel Morange (transl. Matthew Cobb)Harvard University Press, $18.95, £11.95“Morange’s account of the history of geneticengineering and of the developments thatfollowed shows how molecular biology wentfrom a highly intellectualized subject to one that became technologized and began to interact with the world outside. The heroes ofthe past are replaced by the manager andbureaucrats of today.”Sydney Brenner, Nature395, 762 (1998)

The Biological Universe: TheTwentieth-Century Life Debate and the Limits of Scienceby Steven J. DickCambridge University Press, £13.95, $22.95

New in paperback

© 2000 Macmillan Magazines Ltd