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Crise de l’eau et crise alimentaire : pouvons-nous les surmonter ?
Alain VidalCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food
AgroParisTech, semaine ATHENSUV Gérer l’eau du local au global
20 novembre 2008
Content
What is causing the world’s food crisis?Do we also have a water crisis? How is it related to the food crisis?Can we overcome the crisis?
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Food crisis: is it new?
Kenya 1998-2000 drought: $2.4 billion losses
Remember! Every 5 seconds, one child younger than 10 dies of hunger
Food crisis: the hunger countdown?
3 billion do not eat their fill2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty
Reducing rural poverty Increase farmers income and resilience And NOT transform the rural poor into urban poor
Water, food and GDP
Many poor countries depend on food production as the basis of GDP (eg Sub-Saharan Africa)…
… and agriculture growth is strongly related to water (eg rainfall in Ethiopia)
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Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
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00
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
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10
15
20
25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Annual growth rate
(%)
ag grow th GDP grow th
What is causing the world food crisis?
Long-term trends… Increasing demand - Income growth and dietary change, climate
change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization Decreasing supply - Slow growing supply, low stocks, supply
shocks
…plus new short-term effects exacerbating long-term trends Speculation and biofuel production have disproportionately
affected the poor Uncertainties due to economic instability
Rapid variations in world food prices
What’s next?
Food consumption changes in emerging countries
Less grain, more meat and dairy products
More meat in China, more milk in India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
me
at
co
ns
um
pti
on
(kg
/ca
p/y
r) Meat China
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
milk
co
ns
um
pti
on
(kg
/ca
p/y
r)
Milk
China
India USA
USA
Food & feed demand will double The main driver
How much more cereal will we have to grow to meet growing demand? While world population will increase by 50%... … changes in diets will result in almost doubling
the food demand!
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Long-term effect of climate change
Decrease of main crops production by 2050 ! Maize 16% Rice 21% Wheat 42%
Eg rainfall change from 1990 to 2070-2100
Slow growing supply vs. low stocks
Cereal stocks from 4 months down to
2.5 months of world consumption
equivalent to 1 year of China consumption (40% being owned by China)
Biofuels: a significant short-term effect
Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%)
“A short-term threat for food security, a long-term opportunity for agricultural and rural development” (FAO State of Food and Agriculture, 2008)
What have we learnt from the 2008 crisis?
Food commodities is another casino where people gamble In face of the financial crisis, speculators and hedge funds have turned
towards food commodities Food prices have risen dramatically and first affected the poor : in
2008-09, the number of undernourished raised from 920 to 1000 million (FAO)
Consequences of the economic and financial crisis Temporarily slowed down the food demand increase, resulting in
lower food prices – but too low for farmers Decreased incomes and salaries and increased smallholders’ debt,
resulting in decreased investment in agriculture
What does the future of world food prices look like?
Do we also have a water crisis?
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The driving forces?
Growing populationDietary changeUrbanizationBiofuel productionNeed for environmental water Climate change
… similar to the food crisis drivers!
The Water Crisis in context
Vegetarian diet uses 2000 L/day - OR - Grainfed meat diet 5000 L/day
2-5L Daily
20-500L Daily
500-3000LPer Kg
Water consumption is increasing
Dietary water demand grows with GDP
Lundqvist 2008
GDP US$/cap/yr
La demande continue à augmenter
Eau, territoire et biocarburants d’ici 2030
irrigated
Million ha
Harvested area
irrigated
rain fed
rain fed
biofuels2003
2030
400 800 1200 1600
2000 4000 6000 8000
2003
2030
biofuelsirrigation
irrigation
directly from rain
directly from rain
Crop water consumption
km3
The water productivity challenge
Do we have enough water resources to grow enough food and meet future demand for biofuels?
No… with today’s practices, doubling food production in 2050 would require to almost double agricultural water use
…Unless we change the way we think and act on water issues
A simple and ideal scenario: if we doubled the amount of food produced per m3 of water, we would be safe
Change our thinking about water and agriculture
Far
from
Certainty
Ag
reem
en
t
Close to Far from
Clo
se to Simple
Plan, control
Zone of Complexity
Technically Complicated Experiment, coordinate expertise
SociallyComplicated Build relationships, create common ground
Source: Patton, 2007
• Formulaic solutions have limited applicability
• Past success is no guarantee of future success
• Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key
• Uncertainty of outcome remains
Increase the productivity of water to potential
Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability Water is often a constraint in productivityIntegration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water
Potential = 1-2 kg/m3
Water productivity and resource management
Before After
Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yrRice-shrimp profits: ca. USD 2150/ha/year
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Increasing water productivity requires external factors
Growth of agricultural GDP is 4 times more effective to increase people's income (WDR 2007), but…
…poverty also influences the capacity to increase crop productivity
Changer notre mode de pensée sur l’eau et l’agriculture ?
Source: FAO
Répondre aux besoins spécifiques des différentes catégories de producteurs
The resilience challenge
Not only should water productivity be increased…
…but communities and ecosystems producing food should be able to cope with global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…) , ie
become more resilient (persistent, adaptable, transformable)
Green water Blue water
Prod
uctiv
ity
MUS
MUS resilience zone
Single uses
unstable zone
Resilience of dry rainfed systems
Green water is the source of runoff and percolation of blue water
Ways to improve access to green water In-field soil water conservation techniques that increase
the rate of infiltration and percolation, e.g. mulching Micro catchment or runoff farming and supplementary ‐
irrigation to capture overland flow from areas adjacent to fields
Household crop income raised from US$200 to 600 per year
Resilience from wetlands: Nam Songkhram
Highly productive but contested waterscape Floods and droughts always presented as main obstacles
to development, whereas flood pulse is main driver of wetland productivity
Threat of ‘Water Grid’ and other mega projects hangs ‐over future of wetlands
But household income US$1100/y
“paa boong paa thaam”
Resilience from Multiple Use water Systems
Multiple use water systems are an effective way to fight poverty by improving access to agricultural waterExperience shows that farmers use/re-use multiple (up to 9!) sources of water
livestock
door
Total area 2 ha ; ponds, paddy fields; integrated farm; and forest
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Paddy field
Trees & fruits
Trees & fruits
12x24x5 m
Tre
es &
frui
ts Trees & fruits
Farm
Forest
Frog farm
Vegetables
Nursery
From domestic water to multiple-use
Homestead-scale multiple-use gives high resilience against natural- and human-made volatility Especially for the poor and for women
generates ‘more MDG per drop’ Multiple-use water ladder, with household water-derived
income ranging from US$40 to 300/year Costs for multiple-use supplies for homestead-based
production typically repaid within 3 years, from the income gained, therefore cross-subsidized domestic uses
Green water Blue water
Prod
uctiv
ity
Single uses
unstable zone
Multiple use/sources resilience
Rainfed humid
Rainfed dry
How to address the resilience challenge?
Multiple water uses, techniques and
sources, together with resulting community organization do increase resilience
Neglecting the natural and immemorial continuity between water natural and man-made systems creates unaffordable disruptive changes
Disruptive
Change
References and links
Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) www.waterandfood.org
The World Bank www.worldbank.org World Development Report 2007 on Agriculture
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) www.fao.org
International Water Management Institute (IWMI) www.iwmi.org Comprehensive Assessment on Water and Agriculture
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) www.ifpri.org
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Photo Credits
Challenge Program on Water and FoodThe World BankInternational Water Management InstituteInternational Livestock Research InstituteInternational Development EnterprisesReuters
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