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Early warning systems in disaster-risk reduction

Rohan Samarajiva & Nuwan Waidyanatha

IDRC-CIDA workshop12 July 2007, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

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Agenda

Disaster risk reduction: what must be done The LIRNEasia-Sarvodaya community-based approach to

early warning Pilot project research design

Different communication technologies ERP [Emergency Response Planning] training v no training Organized villages vs. less organized villages

Findings Efficacy of Hazard Info Hub at SCMDC Reliability of technologies Reliability of systems Training Organizational development Women

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Physical world wherehazards occur

Symbolic worldwhere action

originates

Mediatedinterpersona

l

Sri Lanka on December 26th, 2004

With a few insignificant exceptions,a world without ICTs

One in 500 died in Sri Lanka without one minute of official warning

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netPhysical world where

hazards occurSymbolic worldwhere action

originates

Mass media

Mediatedinterpersonal

Warnings

Warnings

How ICTs should be deployed

More time to run; more lives saved

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Who should act?

Early warning is a classic public good Government must supply

Early warning is based on incomplete, probabilistic information and judgment Government must take the responsibility

75% of tsunami warnings in the Pacific are false; false warnings can be dangerous

Community preparedness (e.g., “tsunami ready” designations in the US) is vital

But if government appears unready to act . . . Second-best options must be explored

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Early warning chain (standard form)

CitizensNational early warning center

First responders

Media

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Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)

ERP1

National early warning center

VillagersSCDMC

ERP4

ERP3

ERP2ICT GuardiansFrom domestic &

international sources

ERP1

National early warning center

VillagersSCDMC

ERP4

ERP3

ERP2ICT Guardians

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Pilot project design, 32 villagesWith ERP Training No ERP Training

Sarv

odaya S

tage 1

, 2,

3

VSAT Urawatha(Galle)

MoPNidavur(Batticalo)

FxPThirukadalar(Trincomalee)

AREAMoratuwella(Colombo)

MoPMeddhawatha(Matara)

MoP Thambiluvil (Kalmunai)

FxPOluville(Kalmunai)

AREA Maggona(Kalutara)

AREA + RAD Modarapallassa(Hambantota)

AREA + FxPWathegama North(Matara)

AREA + MoPPalmunnai(Batticalo)

Control VillageAbeyasinghepura(Ampara)

AREA + RADThondamanar(Jaffna)

AREA + FxPKarathivu(Kalmunai)

AREA + MoPMunnai(Jaffna)

Control VillageModara(Colombo)

Sarv

odaya S

tage

4

VSATModaragama(Hambantota)

MoPDiyalagoda(Kalutara)

FxPPeriyakallar (Batticalo)

AREAPanama North(Ampara)

MoPSatur-kondagnya(Batticallo)

MoPSamodhagama(Hambantota)

FxPIndivinna(Galle)

AREA Brahamana-wattha(Galle)

AREA + RAD Kalmunai II(Kalmunai)

AREA + FxPSamudragama(Trincomalee

AREA + MoPValhengoda(Galle)

Control VillageMirissa South(Matara)

AREA + RADVenamulla(Galle)

AREA + FxPKottegoda(Matara)

AREA + MoPThallala South(Matara)

Control VillageThalpitiya(Kalutara) AREA: Addressable Radio for Emergency Alerts, Class B configuration of WorldSpace System

MoP: Java enabled Mobile Phone, Dialog-Microimage innovation MiDews application

RAD: Remote Alarm Device, Dialog-University-of-Moratuwa Innovation

FxP: CDMA Wireless Fixed Phones with 1xRTT functions, Sri Lanka Telecom

VSAT: Very Small Aperture Terminals coupled with Internet Public Alerting System Innovative-Tech & Solana Networks

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Research questions

What technology is best for reaching the community?

What emergency response plans are best for saving lives of villagers? How important is training? How significant is the level of organization in the

village?

How does the intervention affect women? Will the ICTs be integrated into everyday

life?

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netCDMA Fixed Phone GSM Mobile Phone Remote Alarm Device

Addressable Radios for Emergency Alerts

Very Small Aperture Terminals

ICTs used in reaching communities

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Reliability is the difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to issue the CAP message and the time the message is received by the ICT Guardian.

HIH-Monitor

ICT GuardianRelay Alert

ERP CoordinatorsDissemminate

Report Status

Acknowledge

Resolve CAP Alert()

Activate ICTG ERP()

Activate Community ERP()

Relay Results

Activate HIH ERP()

Download Alert()

T0

T1

T2

t0

t1

t2

Reliability is the difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to receive message and the time the message is received by the Community.

Reliability of technologies & systems

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Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)

ERP1

National early warning center

VillagersSCDMC

ERP4

ERP3

ERP2ICT GuardiansFrom domestic &

international sources

HIH

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Reliability of HIH Monitor Tasks

1.00

0.39

0.81

0.97

0.69

Task

Reli

ab

ilit

y

0.06090.7725HIH Monitor

Message Relay Process

VarianceAverage

Expected value = 95%

Download was quick because the simulation was staged within a defined three-hour time period. Acknowledgement was rare, possibly because they knew it was a drill. Event of Interest step was time consuming (2-page form) and needs improvement. Approval was instantaneous because the SCDMC Director was on premises during drills. Issue of alert took time because Each ICT required its own interface to issue the alert.

Evaluation of Hazard Info Hub (HIH) actions

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What is being measured . . .

difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to issue the CAP message and the time the message is received by the ICT Guardian

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Coupled ICTs performed better than individual ICTs with the AREA + FXP combination being most reliable. Of the stand alone devices AREA is the most reliable with 13 of 16 working; The community had difficulty in installing and maintaining the MiDews Java applet on their MOPs and 7 of 10 participating MOPs failed; RADs were not tested as stand alone devices. FXP and MOP failed in North-East due to services being deactivated due to war.

Reliability of ICT Configurations in Last Mile Hazard Warning System

0.50

0.31

0.17

0.89

0.670.64

0.50

AREA FXP MOP AREA+FXP AREA+MOP AREA+RAD None

ICT Configuration in Community

Rel

iab

ility

Reliability of technology connecting HIH to ICT Guardians (inner circle)

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Early warning chain (community based; applicable to Last-Mile HazInfo project)

ERP1

National early warning center

VillagersSCDMC

ERP4

ERP3

ERP2ICT GuardiansFrom domestic &

international sources

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What is being measured. . .

difference between the time it takes HIH Monitor to receive message and the time the message is received by the Community

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Reliability of systems (outer circle)

AREA alone is unidirectional. Stand-alone AREA, RAD, and VSAT score low because alerts received in English only; all other ICT configurations accommodate three languages. Using a combination of FXP or MOP coupled with one-way Satellite communication device AREA is most effective because it

- Provides larger geographic coverage with Satellite covering GSM and CDMA shadow areas- Increases bi-directional capabilities of communities to report local events to the Hub- Language diversity reduces ambiguity in messages

Effectiveness of ICT Confiurations in Last-Mile Hazard Warninig System

0.08

0.39 0.43

0.09 0.07

0.7 0.69

0.13

ICT Configuration in Community

Eff

ecti

ven

ess

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Reliability of ICT w.r.t Training Regime for ICT Guardians

0.96

0.991.00

0.990.99 0.99

0.930.94

0.990.97

AREA FXP MOP RAD VSAT NONE

ICT Name

Reli

ab

ilit

y

Trained Untrained

Reliability of ICT w.r.t Training Regime for ERP Coordinators

0.740.720.83

0.630.63

0.87

0.71

0.580.67

0.59

AREA FXP MOP RAD VSAT NONE

ICT Name

Reli

ab

ilit

y

Trained Untrained

All 28 ICT Guardians received training. Only 16 of 32 Community ERP Coordinators received ERP Training. ICT Guardians were coached during live-exercises; random events over longer period would show different results. ERP Coordinators were also coached therefore results are not accurate. Still could not reach the required level.

Effects of training of ICT Guardians & ERP Coordinators

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Effect of organizational level of villages

Reliability of ICTs w.r.t Organizaional Level

0.29

0.43

0.17

0.28

0.130.13

0.46

0.17

0.09

AREA FXP MOP RAD VSAT NONE

ICT Name

Re

liab

ility

Stage 4 and 5 Stage 1, 2, & 3

Organizational capacity is unimportant in the adoption of existing technologies such as Mobile and Fixed Phones. This is also evident from the Control Villages, which used their own Mobile Phones and Fixed Phones. Organizational capacity is important when adopting new technologies such as AREA. Unfortunately RAD was not tested in less organized villages. It is easier to organize disaster preparedness activities in organized villages.

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Distribution of Male vs Female in Hazard Mitigation

Adult Male28%

Adult Female

72%

Adult Male Adult Female

72% of adult participants were female because the simulations were conducted between 0900 and 1200hrs when most men were out of the home. The women showed enthusiasm and willingness to participate in disaster management activities. High participation of children occurred because the mothers brought their children along as they could not be left at home alone.

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Integration of ICTs into everyday life

Expected to get data from Diaries that had been provided From use records

Both failed because Dairies were not maintained Use was very low

In some cases, District Sarvodaya Offices has reclaimed the phones for use in urgent IDP activities

Appeared that people thought we did not want them to use the ICTs for other purposes and did not volunteer information such as listening to BBC on AREA sets

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Conclusions

Critically important to get SCDMC running as a 24/7 operation and to have disaster risk-reduction embedded as a central element of the worldview of all at Sarvodaya Need to integrate management of all disaster projects Think beyond project horizon (has already started

through strategic planning process) Robust early warning for community-based approach

(as opposed to direct-to-citizen approach) requires Bidirectionality of media, for local reporting and

acknowledgement No stand-alone AREA sets CAP compliance and ability to send long messages in

multiple languages AREA sets in combination with other media

Mobile has potential, after software problems solved, but script limitations make it a distinct also-ran

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Conclusions

A community-based approach requires Training, both for ICT Guardians and for ERP

Coordinators Higher organizational levels

No conclusive evidence, but training through periodic simulations may be more effective than conventional training

No conclusive evidence, but integration into everyday activities may not be very important in the case of AREA+

No conclusive evidence, but women are unlikely to be marginalized from community-based approaches in Sri Lanka

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Project-specific conclusions

Pilot projects on truly novel problems require imagination and flexibility Example: change from strict adherence to “no-

training” condition in the face of demands from villages

Substitution of ham radios by other technologies

Those closest to the action know best Project Director and IDRC Task Managers gave the

main players the freedom to run the project