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E-Mobilität in China Vorreiter oder Nachzügler?

Daniel Bongardt, GIZ 25. Januar 2011, Luzern

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Content

 Electric Mobility in China

 The joint Chinese- German Project

Picture: Münch

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China is now the biggest car market in the world

Vehicle Sales in China and the U.S. over the last 30 years

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Challenges of the automotive industry and potentials for electric vehicles

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China among the leaders concerning EV-industries and markets

EV-Demand

Japan China

Korea

USA Portugal

Ireland

Denmark

UK France

Italy

Spain Germany

"Heat Map“ Index EFI

EV-Supply Spain, Ireland

UK, Denmark Italy, Korea

Germany, China France

USA

Japan

Portugal

5

4

3

2

1

0

Quelle: Mc Kinsey

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Governmental Cooperation for the Promotion of New Energy Vehicles in China

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Strategy for Chinese New Energy Vehicle Commercialization

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20 Pilot Cities for public EVs in China

8

Shanghai (4.157)

Changchun (1.000)

Dalian (2.432) Beijing (5.000)

Jinan (1.610)

Hefei (1.400)

Hangzhou (3.000) Wuhan (2.500)

Changsha (4.000)

Nanchang (980)

Shenzhen (12.000) Kunming (1.000)

Chongqing (1.550)

Governmental Support for public EVs ▪  Target-Vehicles

–  HEV, BEV, FCV with 5% reduction in fuel consumption for PV and SUV and more than 10% for buses

–  City-buses, Taxis, Car fleets and pools, public transport

▪  Financial Support –  HEV –  BEV: 60.000 RMB for PV and

500.000 for buses –  FCV 250.000 RMB for PV and

600.000 for buses ▪  Beneficial OEM

–  i.e. Beiqi Foton

Tangshan (K.A.)

Haikou (K.A.)

Tianjin (K.A.)

Zhengzhou (K.A.)

Suzhou (K.A.)

Xiamen (K.A.)

Guangzhou (K.A.)

Source: McKinsey 2010

Pilotcities for public EV City (planned until 2012)

1. Wave: 13 Pilots, anounced in January 2009

2. Wave: 7 Pilots, anounced in May 2010

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Changchun

Hefei

Shenzhen

Governmental Support for private EV ▪  Target-Vehicles

–  PHEV, Battery more than 10 kWh, electrical drive about 50 km;

–  BEV, Battery more than 15 kWh; –  No Pb-Batteries

▪  Financial Support –  3.000 RMB/kWh; –  Financial Support for PHEV max.

RMB 50.000 per EV; –  Financial Support for BEV max.

RMB 60.000 per EV; ▪  Potentially beneficial OEM

–  SAIC (in Shanghai) –  FAW (in Changchun) –  BYD (in Shenzhen) –  Geely (in Hangzhou) –  Chery (Provinz Anhui1)

Pilot Cities for privat EV und Headquarter of beneficial OEM

Shanghai

Hangzhou

Source: McKinsey 2010

Subsidies for private EV-buyers

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Chinese Transport Energy Strategy

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 The decision-makers in the relevant ministries in China, related institutes and think tanks have access to the conceptual and technical background and related strategies to introduce Electro-Mobility in China in an climate-friendly and environ-mental sound way.

 Duration: 2010-2013

The Overall Objective of the Project

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Political Partner:   Ministry of Science and Technology of the People”s Republic of China

  Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety of Germany Implementing Agencies:

  China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC)   Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

Implementing Partner:   More national and international Implementing Partner mainly from the research side will

be taken on board for specific tasks in the Work Streams

Industrial Partner:   Volkswagen Group China   Other Chinese and German industrial Partner are most welcome to join the project

Sounding Board:   A multi-stakeholder Sounding Board will be installed in agreement with the Political

Partner of the project

Partner Setting

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Pillars of the Project: The 4 Work Streams (WS)

Electro-Mobility and Climate Protection

WS1

: Joi

nt S

cena

rio

Proc

ess

WS2

: Env

ironm

enta

l

Stan

dard

s

WS3

: Bat

tery

-

R

ecyc

ling

WS4

: Int

egra

tion

in

su

stai

nabl

e ur

ban

tran

spor

t

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Guiding Questions

  What are the climate and environmental impacts of Electro-Mobility in China in the future?

  How can the contribution of Electro-Mobility in China to climate and environmental protection be optimised?

  What are the measures which have to be taken? Tasks 1.  Set Up an appropiate Material Flow Model

2.  Design a Baseline Study to describe the trend scenarion 3.  Design alternative

Expected Outcome

  Recommendations on how Electro-Mobility in China can be introduced to contribute most to climate and environmental protection

Next Steps

  Joint workshop with potential implementing partner to design the overall scenario process most propable by the end of 2010.

  Set up the process in spring 2011 (final results should be available by the end of 2011).

Work Stream 1: Joint Scenario Process

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Another big challenge of the future : The environmental impacts of Electric Vehicles

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Coal is the main energy source for power generation in China therefore the power sector is the main contributor of CO2, SO2 and NOX emissions

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Another big challenge of the future : The environmental impacts of Electric Vehicles

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Emissions from fuel combustion will be shifted but unfortunately not avoided

Coal Mining

Coal Transportation

Coal Combustion Electricity

Transmission EV Recharging And Operation

Crude Recovery

Crude Transportation

Oil Refinery Gasoline Transportation

Refilling Vehicle Operation

Fuel cycle of EVs

Fuel cycle of ICEVs and HEVs

Primary stages of fuel-cycle emissions

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CO2 emissions of EVs compared with cars running on fossil fuels

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With the current generation mix EVs do not promise emission reductions

Source: He Kebin, 2010.

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Factors determining the climate protection benefits of EVs

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New Challenge: Integrated consideration of transport and energy sectors!

Source: OPTUM, 2010.

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Guiding Questions

  How should EVs be integrated in environmental standards and regulations that they help to contribute most to climate and environmental protection?

Tasks 1.  Identify relevant environmental standards and regulations for revision 2.  Assess the environmental impacts of the integration of EV in the

standards and regulations 3.  Develop recommendations for the integration of EVs in an sound way

Expected Outcome

  Recommendations on how to integrate Electro-Mobility in environmental standards and regulations in the transport sector in an climate and environmental sound way.

Next Steps

  International Workshop on how EVs (PHEV, BEV) should be considered in fuel economy standards in China early 2011 (follow up by policy recommendations).

  Identify other relevant environmental standards and regulations to be revised in 2011.

Work Stream 2: Environmental Standards

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Source: ICCT, May 2009

2002 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2020

Conclusions

  Japan historically most strict regulation

  Recently for 2020 EU most strict regulation

  USA with high relative reductions if proposed measures will be implementes

CO2-emissions in g/km

120

90

270

240

210

180

150

United States

South Corea

Australia China

European Union Japan

USA

South Korea

Australia

EU

CO2-regulation (Fuel Economy Standards) for passenger vehicles: What is in it for the development of Electromobility?

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Guiding Questions

  How can an efficetive and efficient battery-recycling system for EVs be set up in China to save the scarce resources and contribute to climate protection?

Tasks 1.  Assess the strength and weaknesses of today systems (i.e Electric Bikes) as well as the needs in the future

2.  Set up a joint feasebility study for a systematic battery-recycling

Expected Outcome

  Recommendations on how to set up an effective and efficient recycling system for batteries of EVs in China.

Next Steps

  Start a fact finding mission in February 2011.   Design the feasebility study in summer 2011.

Work Stream 3: Battery-Recycling for EVs

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Development of an industrial recycling solution for special metals

Source: LiBRi, 2010.

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Guiding Questions

  How can EVs be integrated in sustainable (urban) transport and mobility concepts?

Tasks 1.  Assess the international experiences with Evs on how they they may change the mobility pattern of customers concerning their environmental impacts

2.  Studies options on how EVs can be integrated in sustainable (urban) transport systems in China

Expected Outcome

  Recommendations on how to integrate Electric Vehicles in (urban) transport systems that they contribute most to climate and envirnmental protection.

Next Steps   Preparing a international conference to exchange the experiences with pilot and demonstration projects of EVs in China and Germany in Q2 2011.

  Design the further work on: 1. further fleet tests with accompanying environmental reserach: 2. assess the opportunities to link Electro-Mobility with sustainable transport modes and services (i.e. Car Sharing or Car Pooling); 3. Set up criteria for environmental sound EV-ready cities

Work Stream 4: Electric Vehicles and Sustainable Mobility

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Electro-Mobility may be one pillar of a more environmental sustainable mobility

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Environmental Sustainable Mobility

Fuel

Cel

ls

Hyd

roge

ne

Ele

ctro

mob

ility

Efficiency Alternative Fuels and Propulsions

Bio

fuel

s

Effiz

ienc

y IC

E

Modal Shift Traffic Avoidance

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Contact Christian Hochfeld

Project Director Electro-Mobility christian.hochfeld@giz.de

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Tayuan Diplomatic Compound Bld. 5, Entr. 2, Apt. 151 1 Xindonglu, Chaoyang District 100600 Beijing, PR China

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谢谢！ Thank you very much for your attention!

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Backup

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The future of car is also electric: Advances in Germany

  Electromobility part of the Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (Dec. 2007)

  National Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Innovation Programme (NIP) (2008)

  Foundation of a Task force of the German Government (BMBF, BMU, BMVBS, BMWi)

  Support of the first Field Trials of Evs (June 2008)   National Strategy Conference on Electromobility

(Nov. 2008)   500 Mio. Euro from the Recovery Package II until

2011 (Jan. 2009)   National Development Plan Electromobility (Aug.

2009)   Joint Governmental Office (Feb. 2010)   National Platform Electromobility (May 2010)

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Objectives of the National Development Plan Electromobility

  Integration of Electromobility in an environmental sustainable transport system

  Climate protection by expanding the share of renewable energies and its integration in the grid

  Securing and strengthening the competitiveness along the whole value chain (“Lead Market Electromobility Germany”)

  Cooperation of all relevant actors (National Platform)

  Milestone: 1 million EVs in 2020

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Phase 1 (2009 - 2011) Market Preparation

Phase 2 (ca. 2011 – 2016) Market Introduction

Phase 3 (ca. 2017 – 2020) Volume Market

Batteries Li-Ionen-Batterien •  Start of production 1. generation •  Technology 2. generation

Li-Batteries •  Mass production 1. generation •  Initial production 2. generation

•  Li-Batteries Mass production 2. generation •  New technologies for optimisation of costs and energy density

Vehicle Technology

•  PHEV and BEV as Prototypes •  PHEV / BEV in small series (all OEMs) •  Platform PHEV / BEV 2. generation

•  Mass production of PHEV / BEV 2. generation •  Production of PHEV/BEV of high energy power classes

Infrastructure •  Test grid integration •  Initial public charging stations

•  Charging infrstructure in many cities and regions •  Grid integration •  Coupling with RE

•  Areawide charging infrastructure •  Grid integration and feed back •  Fast charging, inductive charging

Framework •  Security standards •  Regulatory Framework •  Standardisation of interfaces

•  Incentive program •  Public procurement standards

Markets •  Fleet Tests •  First private user •  Business models for charging of the batteries

•  1 mio. Evs on the road in 2020 •  Germany is lead market for electromobility

Roadmap Electromobility in Germany

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BMWi   Energy research (i.e. Storage systems, smart grid integration)   ICT for smart grid solutions (E-Energy)   Transport research (propulsion systems, fleet

BMVBS   8 Model Regions for Electromobility   Test center for batteries

BMU   Fleet tests (passenger cars and (light) duty vehicles   Recycling of Li-batteries from vehicles   Incentives program for hybrid busses

BMBF   Development of production technologies for Li-batteries   Network of excellence systemic research Electromobility   Research Centre for electro-chemistry

Main activities of the federal ministries

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 Promotion of scientific exchange on a systematic environmental assessment of transport, in particular of different drive systems and fuels

 Harmonisation of methods of analysis to evaluate by means of scenario analyses the climate protection impact of the introduction and market penetration of electric mobility

 Definition of the potential contribution of electric mobility to climate protection in the transport sector in China through climate-friendly grid integration and optimisation of the well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles

Memorandum of Understanding – Goals - 1

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 Evaluation of options for responsible resource management, in particular with regard to saving critical metals and rare earths by eastablishing a recycling system for vehicle batteries

 Development of recommendations for action on shaping political framework conditions to ensure climate-friendly expansion of electric mobility in China

 Promotion of exchange on and cooperation in accompanying ecological research on pilot and demonstration projects in China and Germany

Memorandum of Understanding – Goals - 2

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 Assessment of the options for using electric mobility in intelligent and multimodal mobility concepts to optimise the transport system in ecological terms

 Promotion of the bilateral dialogue on future climate protection opportunities resulting from the development of electric mobility in China and Germany through the establishment of a dialogue platform

Memorandum of Understanding – Goals - 3

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Volkswagen China Group: First Industrial Partner

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How to generate environmental benefits from the use of EVs? (CO2 emissions)

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CO2 emissions reductions can be achieved with a higher share of renewable energies in the electricity generation and enhanced coal technologies

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How to generate environmental benefits from the use of EVs? (SO2 emissions)

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SO2 Emissions reductions can be achieved with enhanced coal technologies (i.e. SCR)

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Challenges and strategies for the integration of the increasing energy demand of EVs in the power sector

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Source: Oeko-Institut 2010

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Factors determining the climate protection benefits of EVs

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New Challenge: Integrated consideration of transport and energy sectors!

Source: OPTUM, 2010.