dynamics of livestock production systems, drivers of ... · sara mcclintock, margaret...

3

AGRI 2008 42 3-27

SummaryThis overview analyses the key drivers of change inthe global livestock sector and assesses how theyare influencing current trends and future prospectsin the worldrsquos diverse livestock production systemsand market chains and what are their consequentimpacts on the management of animal geneticresources for food and agriculture The trends areoccurring in both developing and industrializedcountries but the responses are different In thedeveloping world the trends are affecting the abilityof livestock to contribute to improving livelihoodsand reducing poverty as well as the use of naturalresources In the industrialized world thenarrowing animal genetic resource base inindustrial livestock production systems raises theneed to maintain a broader range of animal geneticresources to be able to deal with futureuncertainties such as climate change and zoonoticdiseases

This chapter discussesbull What are the global drivers of change for

livestock systems Economic development andglobalization changing market demands andthe ldquolivestock revolutionrdquo environmentalimpacts including climate change and scienceand technology trends

bull How are the livestock production systemsresponding to the global drivers of changeTrends in the three main livestock productionsystems (industrial crop-livestock and pastoralsystems) the range and rate of changesoccurring in different systems and how theseaffect animal genetic resources The implicationsare that breeds cannot adapt in time to meet newcircumstances Hence new strategies andinterventions are necessary to improve themanagement of animal genetic resources insituations where these genetic resources aremost at risk

Dynamics of livestock production systems drivers of change andprospects for animal genetic resources

C Sereacute1 A van der Zijpp2 G Persley1 amp E Rege1

1International Livestock Research Institute PO Box 30709 Nairobi 00100 Kenya2Animal Production Systems Group Department of Animal Sciences Wageningen University

PO Box 338 6700 AH Wageningen The Netherlands

This paper has benefited from inputs from several reviewersand other contributors and we thank all for their thoughtfulinsights We acknowledge the contributions of our colleaguesat FAO particularly Irene Hoffmann Dafydd Pilling andHenning Steinfeld and at the International LivestockResearch Institute (ILRI) Ade Freeman Mario HerreroOlivier Hanotte Steve Kemp Sandy McClintockSara McClintock Margaret MacDonald-LevySusan MacMillan Grace Ndungu An NotenbaertMwai Okeyo and Robin Reid

bull What are the implications for animal geneticresources diversity and for future prospects oftheir use - Industrial livestock productionsystems are expected to have a limited demandfor biodiversity while crop-livestock andpastoral systems will rely on biodiversity toproduce genotypes of improved productivityunder changing environmental and socio-economic conditions All systems will rely onbiodiversity albeit to varying degrees to copewith expected climate change

bull What immediate steps are possible to improveanimal genetic resources characterization useand conservation Appropriate institutional andpolicy frameworks are required to improveanimal genetic resources management and theseissues are being addressed at national andintergovernmental levels in a process led byFAO to promote greater internationalcollaboration on animal genetic resources Basedon an analysis of the current situation thecontinuing loss of indigenous breeds and newdevelopments in science and technology thereare several complementary actions that canbegin to improve the management of animalgenetic resources and maintain future options inan uncertain worldThese are summarized here asa ldquoKeep it on the hoofrdquo ndash Encouraging the

continuing sustainable use of traditionalbreeds and in situ conservation by providingmarket-driven incentives public policy and

httpswwwcambridgeorgcoreterms httpsdoiorg101017S1014233900002510Downloaded from httpswwwcambridgeorgcore ILRI International Livestock Research Institute on 11 Feb 2017 at 101049 subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use available at

4Dynamics of production changes and prospects for AnGR

other support to enable livestock keepers tomaintain genetic diversity in their livestockpopulations

b ldquoMove it or lose itrdquo ndash Enabling access to andthe safe movement of animal geneticresources within and between countriesregions and continents is a key factor in usedevelopment and conservation of animalgenetic resources globally

c ldquoMatch breeds to environmentsrdquo ndashUnderstanding the match between livestockpopulations breeds and genes with thephysical biological and economic landscapeThis ldquolandscape livestock genomicsrdquo approachoffers the means to predict the genotypesmost appropriate to a given environmentand in the longer term to understand thegenetic basis of adaptation of the genotype tothe environment

d ldquoPut some in the bankrdquo ndash- New technologiesmake ex situ in vitro conservation of animalgenetic resources feasible for criticalsituations and are a way to provide long-terminsurance against future shocks

The multiple values functions andconsequences of livestock production systems andtheir rapid rate of change lead to divergent interestswithin and between countries Conversely theuncertainty about the implications of rapidmultifaceted global change for each livestockproduction system and the resulting future changesin the required genetic make-up of animal geneticresources make collective action to tackleconservation of animal genetic resources a long-term global public good Conserving animal geneticresources will not by itself solve these problems butit is an important first step towards maintainingfuture options

Advances in science and the technology inareas such as reproductive technology genomicsand spatial analysis as well as progress inconceptualization of global public good productionfor the future management of animal geneticresources should enable the internationalcommunity to address both the short- and long-termchallenges in innovative ways

ReacutesumeacuteCe reacutesumeacute analyse les facteurs cleacutes qui ont subi deschangements dans le secteur eacutelevage et propose uneeacutevaluation de lrsquoinfluence qursquoils ont eu sur lasituation actuelle et les prospectives futures dansles diffeacuterents systegravemes drsquoeacutelevage et de marcheacute au

niveau mondial On analyse eacutegalement les impactssur la gestion des ressources geacuteneacutetiques animalespour lrsquoalimentation et lrsquoagriculture Cette tendancese retrouve aussi bien dans les pays industrialiseacutesque dans ceux en deacuteveloppement mais les reacuteponsessont diffeacuterentes Dans les pays en deacuteveloppementces tendances ont une influence directe sur lacapaciteacute que preacutesente lrsquoeacutelevage agrave contribuer agravelrsquoameacutelioration de la qualiteacute de vie et agrave la reacuteductionde la pauvreteacute ainsi qursquoagrave lrsquoutilisation desressources naturelles Dans le monde industrialiseacutela proximiteacute de la base des ressources geacuteneacutetiquesanimales avec les systegravemes de production drsquoeacutelevageau niveau industriel ont porteacute au besoin deconserver une plus grande gamme des ressourcesgeacuteneacutetiques animales pour faire face aux incertitudesfutures telles que le changement climatique et leszoonoses

Dans lrsquoarticle on discute debull Quels sont les principaux facteurs de

changement dans les systegravemes drsquoeacutelevagebull Comment reacutepondent les systegravemes de production

drsquoeacutelevage aux facteurs de changement au niveaumondial

bull Quelles sont les implications sur la diversiteacute desressources geacuteneacutetiques animales et pour lesprospectives drsquoutilisation futures

bull Quels sont les deacutemarches immeacutediates quipermettront une ameacutelioration de lacaracteacuterisation des ressources geacuteneacutetiquesanimales leur utilisation et conservationDrsquoapregraves une reacutecente analyse de la situation

actuelle de la perte continue de races indigegravenes etdu nouveau deacuteveloppement de la science et de latechnologie il existe diffeacuterentes actionscompleacutementaires qui pourraient aider agrave ameacuteliorer lagestion des ressources geacuteneacutetiques animales etconserver des options pour le futur dans un mondeplein drsquoincertitude

Ces actions peuvent se reacutesumeacutes comme il suitbull Encourager lutilisation durable des races

traditionnellesbull Permettre laccegraves et la vente de ressources

geacuteneacutetiques animales dans et entre paysbull Compreacutehension du rapport entre eacutelevage races

et gegravenes avec le milieu physique biologique eteacuteconomique

bull La formation de stock comme assurance futureLrsquoincertitude sur les implications des

changements rapides sur chacun des systegravemes deproduction animale et les changements futurs quecela entraicircne en terme de demande de ressourcesgeacuteneacutetiques animales requiegravere drsquoune actioncollective pour faire face agrave la conservation desressources geacuteneacutetiques animales en tant que bien


5

Animal Genetic Resources Information No 42 2008

Sereacute et al

public La conservation des ressources geacuteneacutetiquesanimales en soi ne reacutesoudra pas les problegravemes maisil srsquoagit drsquoun pas important pour conserver lesoptions futures

ResumenEste resumen analiza los factores clave que hancambiado en el sector ganadero y hace unaevaluacioacuten de coacutemo han influenciado la corrienteactual y las prospectivas futuras en los distintossistemas de produccioacuten ganadera y mercados en elmundo Tambieacuten se analizan los consiguientesimpactos sobre la gestioacuten de los recursoszoogeneacuteticos para la alimentacioacuten y la agriculturaLa tendencia se da tanto en paiacuteses industrializadoscomo en viacutea de desarrollo pero las respuestas sondistintas En los paiacuteses en viacutea de desarrollo estastendencias estaacuten afectando la capacidad ganaderapara contribuir a la mejora de la calidad de la vida yreduccioacuten de la pobreza asiacute como la utilizacioacuten delos recursos naturales En el mundo industrializadola proximidad de la base de recursos zoogeneacuteticoscon los sistemas de produccioacuten ganadera industrialplantean la necesidad de mantener un mayor rangode recursos zoogeneacuteticos para hacer frente a lasincertidumbres futuras tales como el cambioclimaacutetico y las zoonosisEn este capitulo se discutebull Cuacuteales son los principales factores de cambio en

los sistemas ganaderosbull Coacutemo responden los sistemas de produccioacuten

ganadera a los factores de cambio a nivelmundial

bull Cuacuteales son las implicaciones para la diversidadde recursos zoogeneacuteticos y para las prospectivasfuturas de su utilizacioacuten

bull Cuacuteales son los pasos inmediatos que puedanpermitir la mejora de la caracterizacioacuten de losrecursos zoogeneacuteticos su utilizacioacuten yconservacioacutenSobre la base de un reciente anaacutelisis de la

situacioacuten actual la peacuterdida de razas indiacutegenas y elnuevo desarrollo de la ciencia y la tecnologiacuteaexisten distintas acciones complementarias quepueden empezar a ayudar a mejorar la gestioacuten delos recursos zoogeneacuteticos y mantener opcionesfuturas en un mundo lleno de incertidumbres

Tales acciones se resumen asiacutebull Fomentar la continua utilizacioacuten sostenible de

razas tradicionalesbull Permitir el acceso y movimiento para venta de

recursos zoogeneacuteticos dentro y entre paises

bull Conocer la relacioacuten entre poblacionesganaderas razas y genes con el entorno fiacutesicobioloacutegico y econoacutemico

bull Conservar stocks para hacer frente aincertidumbres futurasLa incertidumbre sobre las implicaciones decambios raacutepidos multifaceacuteticos y globales paracada sistema de produccioacuten ganadera y losconsiguientes cambios futuros en la demanda derecursos zoogeneacuteticos requieren una accioacutencolectiva para hacer frente a la conservacioacuten derecursos zoogeneacuteticos a largo plazo como bienpublico mundial La conservacioacuten de losrecursos zoogeneacuteticos por siacute sola no resolveraacute losproblemas pero es un paso importante paramantener las opciones futuras

Keywords Global livestock sector Livestock productionsystems Market chains Environmental effects Climatechange Management Sustainable use

IntroductionThis overview paper analyses the key drivers ofchange in the global livestock sector and assesseshow they are influencing current trends and futureprospects in the worldrsquos diverse livestockproduction systems and market chains and whatare their consequent impacts on the management ofanimal genetic resources for food and agricultureThe trends are occurring in both developing andindustrialized countries but the responses aredifferent In the developing world the trends areaffecting the ability of livestock to contribute toimproving livelihoods and reducing poverty as wellas the use of natural resources In the industrializedworld the narrowing animal genetic resource basein industrial livestock production systems raises theneed to maintain a broader range of animal geneticresources to be able to deal with futureuncertainties such as climate change and zoonoticdiseases

The range of livestock covered here aredomesticated species particularly the five majoreconomic species (cattle sheep goats chickens andpigs) There are no detailed figures yet to linkspecific breeds with specific production systemsWe are tackling the problems from a productionsystem angle Throughout the paper and based onthe findings of The State of the Worldrsquos Animal GeneticResources for Food and Agriculture we use theapproximation that commercial breeds as asubgroup of international transboundary breedsare used in intensive high-external input livestock



production systems (termed ldquoindustrial systemsrdquo)and that local breeds are the basis in most extensiveand low-external input systems These are calledhere ldquopastoral systemsrdquo and ldquocrop-livestock systemsrdquorespectively

This paper covers four main areasbull What are the global drivers of change for

livestock systemsbull How are the three main livestock production

systems (industrial crop-livestock and pastoralsystems) responding to the global drivers ofchange and what are the implications of therange and rate of changes for the management ofanimal genetic resources in these systems

bull What are the implications for animal geneticresources diversity and future prospects of theiruse

bull What immediate steps are possible to improveanimal genetic resources characterization useand conservation

Drivers of change in globallivestock systems

Economic development andglobalization

Livestock production is a complex andheterogeneous part of global agriculture It rangesfrom highly automated intensive large-scaleproduction of pigs and poultry and to a lesserdegree cattle to small-scale largely scavengingproduction of backyard pigs and chickenDomestication of livestock started several millenniaago and humans have shaped the genetic make-upof domesticated animals to respond to human needsin different production environments

This genetic make-up of livestock that resultedfrom this long-term process has been put understress by fast-paced changes over the past fewdecades across the entire range of biophysicalsocial and economic contexts in which humanskeep animals These changes can be subsumedunder terms of economic development andglobalization These are themselves largely drivenby technical progress plus the global exchange ofknowledge and products These trends are alsocharacterized by unequal access to naturalresources financing markets technology andpersonal mobility

Since 1945 the world has seen anunprecedented economic growth starting in theindustrialized economies (countries of the

Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment [OECD]) and expanding into the restof the world over the past two decades The latter isepitomized by the economic growth path of ChinaA number of developing countries mainly in Asiaand Latin America have undergone majortransformations associated with significant growthin their economies and increases in per capitaincomes

The socio-economic indicators for selectedcountries are given in table 1 The followinginferences can be drawn from the databull The contribution of livestock to agricultural

gross domestic product (GDP) demonstrates thesignificance of the livestock sector in manyeconomies (providing value addition) thisoccurs even in countries that are experiencingrapid economic growth (India and China)andor have a growing share of industriallivestock systems (China Brazil and Argentina)

bull The key demand drivers of GDP growth andurbanization point towards growing demand forlivestock products across all regions in thedeveloping world This ldquolivestock revolutionrdquo isdiscussed further below

bull The trends in foreign direct investment (FDI)show that increases in FDI are concentrated in afew countries (China and India) These countriesare ones in which the industrialization oflivestock production has been rising sharplySome other countries in Africa (eg Kenya andBotswana) have also recorded significantincreases in FDI over the past decade althoughfrom a lower baseEconomic development has led to important

changes in the spatial distribution of the worldrsquospopulation leading to a rapid process ofurbanization in the developing world At the sametime breakthroughs in medical research and theirapplications have led to dramatic increases of thehuman population in developing countries In theindustrialized world population growth rates havedeclined in the last decades as social securityfemale employment in labour-scarce economies andculturalsocial changes have led to declining birthrates and gradually aging populations In terms ofconsumer demand there is more demand forldquofast foodrdquo and processed animal products Foodsafety requirements are becoming increasinglystringent due to disease problems such as bovinespongiform encephalopathy (BSE) associated withprocessed animal products A similar trend isoccurring in developing countries althoughcurrently limited to the affluent urban class


7


Sereacute et al

Tabl

e 1 S

ocio

-eco

nom

ic in

dica

tors

for s

elect

ed co

untr

ies

U

rban

pop

ulat

ionb

FD

Ic

C

ontr

ibut

ion

of

lives

tock

to a

gric

ultu

ral

GD

P (in

)

GD

P gr

owth

(a

nnua

l cha

nge)

a -

(in

)

Tota

l po

pula

tion

(in

)

Ave

rage

an

nual

gr

owth

(in

)

Ann

ual a

vera

ge in

US$

mill

ion

1990

ndash199

5 av

erag

e 20

00ndash2

005

aver

age

1990

19

95

2000

20

05

1990

20

04

1990

ndash200

4 19

97ndash1

999

2000

ndash200

2 20

03ndash2

005

Sub-

Saha

ran

Afr

ica

Bo

tsw

ana

850

82

1

68

45

83

62

42

52

30

77

161

363

K

enya

42

5

445

4

1 4

3 0

6 5

8 25

40

6

1 15

48

50

Sout

h A

fric

a 46

1

440

-0

3

31

42

51

49

57

30

1 95

5 2

991

2 58

1 La

tin A

mer

ica

and

the

Carib

bean

Arg

entin

a 45

9

365

-1

3

-28

-0

8

92

87

90

14

13 4

80

4 91

1 3

552

Br

azil

418

44

4

-42

4

2 4

3 2

9 75

84

2

3 26

713

23

942

14

501

Peru

36

0

331

-5

1

86

30

64

69

74

22

1 90

8 1

370

1 89

0 Ea

st A

sia a

nd P

acifi

c

Cam

bodi

a 20

5

201

1

1 6

5 8

4 13

4

13

19

55

226

148

198

Ch

ina

269

24

6

38

109

8

4 10

4

27

40

36

42 2

47

43 9

83

60 3

80

V

iet N

am

167

18

0

50

95

68

84

20

26

34

1 76

8 1

333

1 67

1 So

uth

Asia

Indi

a 26

51

307

5 6

0 7

6 5

3 9

2 26

29

2

5 2

794

4 89

4 5

552

Pa

kist

an

491

53

5

45

50

43

80

31

34

33

585

505

So

urce

s a IM

F (2

007)

b W

orld

Ban

k (2

006)

c U

nite

d N

atio

ns (2

007)



Another key driver of change that is leadingtowards larger-scale cereal-based animalproduction systems around the world has been therise in labour costs in the industrialized economiesand in some parts of the developing world as aresult of economic growth and rising incomes

Changing economic policy associated withrapid economic growth in parts of the developingworld (eg Asian ldquotigerrdquo economies) has changedthe investment climate in emerging economies andled to massive inflows of FDI Similarly labourmigration from developing to industrializedeconomies has generated capital flows back todeveloping countries which are often larger thanofficial development assistance Capitalinvestments from outside the farming communityfor example in the feed industry and livestockproduction chains in Southeast Asia are alsoinfluencing changes in livestock productionsystems

The effects of globalization and growingincomes have by no means been evenly distributedwithin or between countries In the context of rapidpopulation growth many countries and social andethnic groups within countries have notparticipated in the growth process Large numbersof poor people particularly in rural areas havebeen left behind or adversely affected by thechanges For example such communities mayactually suffer from loss of access to naturalresources bear the brunt of environmental impactsand be characterized by the breakdown oftraditional social and economic ties and valueswithout a better (or at least viable) alternative Alsolocal breeds of animals are often not competitive inthis changing world

These inequalities pose a major challenge for theglobal community which has responded by settingthe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) aUN-driven process to address several core problemsfacing the world The MDGs include a commitmentto halve the numbers of people living in poverty by2015 as well as setting several other keydevelopment targets including protecting theenvironment and conserving biodiversity Thesustainable use and conservation of the worldrsquosanimal genetic resources for food and agriculturesupports the Millennium Development Goals 1and 7 and is also covered by the Convention onBiological Diversity (CBD)

Market demand for livestockproducts ndash the ldquolivestock revolutionrdquo

Growing demand for animal products ndash as well ashigher standards to improve the quality and safetyof the products ndash and more processed animalproducts have substantial consequences for theevolution of livestock production systems Overallthe processes of economic development populationgrowth urbanization and changing patterns ofconsumption have led to a dramatic increase in theconsumption of animal products in the developingworld a process that has been termed the ldquolivestockrevolutionrdquo FAO data suggest that this trend isexpected to continue for several decades because ofthe strong direct correlation between rising incomeand increasing animal product consumption

Figure 1 shows the expected percentage changesin per capita consumption of selected foodcommodities in developing and industrializedcountries between 2001 and 2030 providingevidence of the ldquolivestock revolutionrdquo occurring in thedeveloping world There are large differencesbetween the projected per capita growth rates inconsumption of livestock products (meat and milk)between developing and industrialized countriesThere are also marked differences in the per capitagrowth rates of the different products in developingcountries with meat and milk being the highestfollowed by oil seeds Growth rates for cerealconsumption as human food are stagnatingeverywhere but increasing for other uses especiallyfor animal feed and biofuels

The consumption of milk and meat per capitaare shown in figures 2 and 3 respectively Thesedata illustrate substantial differences in currentconsumption of meat and milk betweenindustrialized and developing countries the ratesof growth in consumption are higher in thedeveloping world This trend is part of theldquolivestock revolutionrdquo and is the result of increaseddemand and increased incomes economic growthand urbanization in developing countriesConsumption per capita of milk and meat iscurrently between two and four times higher inindustrialized countries than in the developingworld but in absolute terms demand is higher inthe developing world

The growing demand for animal products in thedeveloping world is associated with the changes inproduction location facilitated by the increasingease of transporting feed and animal productsaround the world Animal products werepreviously produced close to where the consumerslive Increasingly livestock production now takes


9


Sereacute et al

Figure 1 Expected percentage changes in per capita consumption of selected food commodities in developing andindustrialized countries 2001ndash2030Source adapted from IAASTD (2007)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

developing countries industrial countries

chan

ge 2

001

- 203

0 (

)

cereals foodcereals all usesveg oils oilseeds and by-productsmeatmilk

Figure 2 Milk consumption per capita to 2050 (kgperson)Source adapted from IAASTD (2007)

0

50

100

150

200

250

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

milk

con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson

)

developing countries industrial countries World



place close to the locations with good access to feedeither in feed production areas or ports The animalproducts are then transported to markets This trendis changing the competitiveness of diverse livestockproduction systems worldwide with more animalproducts being produced in lower cost economies(mainly in industrial and crop-livestock systems)and traded in domestic regional and internationalmarkets

At the same time large numbers of poor peopledepend on livestock production for their livelihoodsand for some of them livestock offer a pathway outof poverty These smallholders and pastoralistsfrequently compete for markets with the commercialsector which is producing animal products inindustrial systems worldwide Smallholders andpastoralists together with their traditional breedsare increasingly being pushed out by the industrialsystems coming into the developing world Hencethere is pressure for smallholders and pastoraliststo replace their traditional breeds with moreproductive but less resilient breeds in order to beable to compete in the expanding livestock marketsin the developing world

Technological developments associated withinternational transport partially related to theincreased access to capital and the opening of manyeconomies have dramatically increased the role of

international trade in animal products Theexpansion of international trade in animal productshas brought to the fore the need to establish morestringent animal health and food safety standardsin order to manage the risks to the domestic sector ofindividual countries and to protect consumersThese health and food safety requirements havebeen driven by the growing problems of animaldiseases including zoonoses These disease risksare linked to a number of factors includingincreasing stock numbers the intimate cohabitationof poor families with their animals and theincreased global movement of animals and animalproducts

Domestic markets including the informallivestock product markets handle the largest shareof the livestock products consumed in developingcountries However in urban areas the modernfood retail sector is also growing rapidly andimposing specific requirements in terms of qualityassurance and homogeneity of the products (ofnational and international origin) The termldquosupermarket revolutionrdquo has been coined for theseprocesses These two marketing systems requiremarkedly different food safety and biosecuritystandards affecting livestock production systemssupplying these markets

Figure 3 Meat consumption per capita to 2050 (kgperson)Source adapted from IAASTD (2007)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

mea

t con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson



11


Sereacute et al

Table 2 shows that the share of supermarkets infood retailing has been increasing over the past twodecades in much of the developing world If currenttrends in expanding urban populations continuethe share of supermarkets in the urban food retailsector in the developing world will increase tolevels that they are now in the industrializedeconomies (ie about 80 percent of the total foodretail sector) The changing set of actors implied bythe supermarket revolution and the growingimportance of agribusiness in food retailing willhave important implications for poor farmers

The coexistence of three markets for animalproducts in the developing world (the traditionalfrequently informal markets the growing formal(super)markets for the urban middle classes and theregionalinternational export markets) posesparticularly daunting challenges for policy-makersin pursuing mutually compatible policies of1 protecting livelihoods among the smallholder

livestock keepers and pastoralists2 upporting efficient markets for the urban

population and

3 encouraging active engagement of livestockproducers and their traditional breeds in theregional and global livestock marketsThe livestock product markets in industrialized

countries are evolving along quite different pathsBesides consuming relatively inexpensive livestockproducts from large-scale industrial systems thereis increasing demand for niche products frequentlylinked with certification of origin often produced intraditional ways or with specific breeds by ldquoorganicagriculturerdquo andor with particular concern foranimal welfare

Animal welfare is an increasing area of concernespecially in markets in industrialized countriesThese concerns include caring for animals in alltypes of production systems There is particularcriticism of intensive housing systems for animals(eg chickens pigs dairy cows) This is leading tomore animal friendly housing systems such asgroup housing of sows and free range hens asalternatives for the caging for laying hens Someconsumers in industrialized countries are preparedto pay a premium for animal products coming from

Table 2 Trends in share of supermarkets in total food retail for selected countries

Waves of diffusion and average market share Country Year

Supermarket share in food retail ()

Industrialized country example

United States of America 2005 80

Argentina 2002 60 Brazil 2002 75 Taiwan Province of China 2003 55 Czech Republic 2003 55 Costa Rica 2001 50 Chile 2001 50 Republic of Korea 2003 50 Philippines 2003 50 Thailand 2003 50

First wave of developing countries

(10ndash20 market share

around 1990)

South Africa 2001 55 Mexico 2003 56 Ecuador 2003 40 Colombia 2003 47 Guatemala 2002 36

Second wave of developing countries


around 1990) Indonesia 2001 30 Bulgaria 2003 25 Kenyaa 2004 20 Nicaragua 2006 20 China 2004 30

Third wave of developing countries

(Virtually zero market

share around 1990) India 2007 9 aShare of urban food retail Source Reardon Henson and Berdegueacute (2007)



such production systems that take account ofanimal welfare concerns Animal welfare concernsare highly culture-specific and while important insome societies others consider them to be non-tarifftrade barriers Some of these trends will dictatebreeds and breeding practices ndash for exampleperformance under range conditions andldquobroodinessrdquo of hens will be important attributes forthe niche markets

In the industrialized countries hobby farminghas become a popular activity using relativelysmall land areas for limited numbers of livestocksuch as sheep goats horses and cattle For in situconservation of species and breeds within speciesthese part-time farmers are important contributors

Environmental effects of livestockproduction

The rapid population growth and the growingconsumption of goods and services by peoplewhose incomes are growing puts pressure onnatural resources and the environment Livestockproduction under certain conditions is drivingdegradation processes and is at the same timeaffected by them Increasing land use for food cropsand crops for biofuels is increasing the pressure onrangelands and other open access or communitymanaged resources This affects the viability of thelow-input production systems the sustainable useof traditional breeds and thus the livelihoods ofpastoralists and smallholders

At the same time the rapid growth of large-scaleintensive animal production units puts a seriousconstraint on the capacity of the environment todeal with carbon dioxide and methane outputnutrient loading in certain areas effluent into riversand seas loss of biodiversity because of landclearing to grow feeds (for example soybeans inLatin America) and other environmental impacts

The recent FAO (2006) report Livestockrsquos longshadow environmental issues and options focused onthe effects of livestock on the environment Theldquolong shadowrdquo refers to the negative effects of thelivestock food chain on almost all aspects of theenvironment livestock production is associatedwith carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxideemissions water depletion soil erosion soilfertility damage to plants loss of biodiversity andcompetition with wildlife

As population and living standards grownatural resources become a limiting factorParticularly in marginal zones for rangeland-basedanimal production (pastoral systems) alternative

land uses such as provision of opportunities forcarbon sequestration through trees or wildlifeconservation may become increasingly competitivewith livestock production On the other handlivestock production in pastoral systems can becomplementary to other services ndash for examplelivestock production provides a means to maintainshrubrangeland systems with grazing reducingthe risk of fire in extensive rangelands andproviding other ecological services

Climate change effects

The relationship between livestock production andclimate change works in both directions On the onehand livestock contributes significantly to climatechange via carbon dioxide methane and nitrousoxide production (calculated in FAO (2006) at18 percent of the total global greenhouse gasemissions from human sources) On the other handclimate change will have important effects onfarming systems and on the role of livestock bothdirectly and indirectly

For example large parts of Africa and CentralAsia are likely to experience reductions in thelength of growing period as a result of increasedtemperatures and lower rainfall This is likely tolead to lower crop yields and reduced rangelandproductivity thus affecting the provision of feedsfor animals Climate change is also likely to changethe distribution of animal diseases and theirvectors Large parts of South and Southeast Asia arelikely to experience increases in rainfall and in thenumber of extreme climatic events (eg cyclones)This could lead to increased exposure of livestock todiseases such as those caused by helminths Croplosses due to extremes in climate could result in lessanimal feed being available especially incrop-livestock and pastoral systems

Science and technology drivers ofchange general aspects and in relation toanimal breeding and genetics

Science and technology have had a major influenceon the transformation of animal production inindustrialized economies and increasingly indeveloping countries With increasing labourscarcity larger high-output and more productiveanimals were bred From multipurpose breedshighly specialized breeds were developedGenerally disease resistance was sacrificed for


13


Sereacute et al

higher output taking into account that throughcapital investments it became possible to adapt theenvironment to the existing animals in ways thathad not been possible in the past Research intohousing and mechanization allowed significantlabour productivity increases These advancesoccurred in many species but particularly inshort-cycled monogastric species such as poultryand pigs

Animal nutrition research linked with breedinghas made major contributions to improving feedefficiency and shortening production cycles andthereby reducing maintenance feed requirementsand allowing a more efficient use of the capitalinvestments and natural resources

In the developing world the impact of modernlivestock science and technology has been unevenIndustrial livestock production systems (mainly forchickens) with limited links to the local resourcebase have been developed in some locations close tourban demand andor to ports given their frequentdependence on imported feed Smallholdercrop-livestock systems are much more reliant onlocally available feed and traditional breeds Thesecrop-livestock systems are highly complexdelivering multiple products and services Progressin improving the sustainable productivity of thesesystems has been much more limited and is asignificant research challenge System-basedresearch is required to help these systems change inline with the changing social economic andenvironmental context in which they operateCurrently the speed of change of animal productionsystems and market chains is very high in somelocationsregions and is accompanied by loss ofanimal genetic resources (This is discussed furtherbelow)

Science and the management of animal geneticresources

The science related to the management of animalgenetic resources has made significant progressbased mainly on advances in molecular biology andgenetics as well as new developments ininformation and communications technology (ICT)The main advances are summarized in this paperand are discussed in more detail in the followingpapers The advances includebull Technologies are increasingly available for

characterizing animal genetic resourcesMolecular characterization is providing a betterunderstanding of the genetic diversity in globallivestock populations Functional genomics is

also making it possible for genomes to becharacterized specific genomic regions andgenes identified and gene functions elucidatedThese technologies are based on a combinationof genetic analysis and bioinformatics

bull New technologies are becoming increasinglyavailable for utilizing animal genetic resourcesbetter to meet changing needs threats andopportunitiesNew genetic technologies enable the bettercharacterization of breeds and populationsOther technologies such as geographicinformation systems (GIS) enable the bettercharacterization of the environment Linkingthis knowledge will enable making a better fitbetween a genotype and an environment and inthe longer term understanding the genetic basisof genotype x environment interaction In thisway we can begin to identify appropriategenotypes for fast-changing environments Forexample there are increasing threats from drierclimates that increase the need for hardieranimals tolerant to drought and diseaseAnimal reproduction technologies such as sexedsemen and in vitro fertilization of embryos willenable the rapid development of newpopulations and faster distribution of superioranimal genetics These technologies are not yetwidely used in developing countries but offerfuture options in areas where a genetic solutionis possible

bull Technologies are increasingly available forconserving animal genetic resourcesNew technologies are available for improvedcryopreservation of embryos and semen that areapplicable in more species These technologieslead to new options for ex situ in vitroconservation of animal genetic resources Forexample use of testes and ovaries obtained fromlivestock as sources of frozen semen and in vitrofertilization (IVF) embryos for long-termcryopreservation of animal genetic resources ingene banks

bull ICTs enable more precise linkage of genotypesand locationsproduction environmentsNew developments in ICTs also haveimplications for animal genetic resourcescharacterization and conservation Thesedevelopments are linked to improvement ofinfrastructure and communication systems suchas the widespread use of mobile phones ICTsalso allow georeferencing to link particulargenotypes with specific geographic locationsThis knowledge provides the scientificunderpinning of in situ conservation practices



In order to take full advantage of theopportunities presented by advances in ICT it isnecessary to develop common standards forcharacterizing animal genetic resources in terms oftheir genetics phenotype and production system sothat knowledge can be shared among differentcommunities and countries Given such systematicand standardized descriptions of livestock theintersection between new ICTs and moderngenetics through genomics and bioinformaticspresents opportunities to examine genome functionby integration of these rich data sets

Current status and trends inlivestock production systemsIn the light of the above drivers of change thissection discussesbull The relative importance of the three main

livestock systems worldwide (industrialcrop-livestock and pastoral) and the breeds theyharbour

bull The implications of global drivers of change forthe different livestock production systems

bull The implications for livelihoodsbull The implications of the scope and rate of

changes in the main livestock productionsystems for current and future animal geneticresources management

Livestock species by region

The geographic distribution of the major livestockspecies worldwide is given in table 3 This tableshows that for all species the majority of animalsare in the developing world It also shows theimportance of different species by region Forexample ruminants are most important insub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Latin America (LAC)both continents with vast areas of savannah andrelatively low population densities Poultry is mostimportant in East Asia and the Pacific and LACregions of either high economic growth or withmiddle-income countries with high degrees ofurbanization and adequate market infrastructure

Livestock production systems by region

Three major types of livestock production systemscan be identified worldwide ndash industrial livestocksystems (IS) croplivestock systems mainly in highpotential areas (CLS) and pastoral systems mainlyin marginal areas (PS)

The share of livestock in each of these systems indifferent geographic regions is shown in table 4These data show that most livestock are located incrop-livestock systems The proportion of livestockin industrial systems by region is mainly a functionof economic status and rate of growth (eg higherproportions of industrial systems in theindustrialized world and Asia)

Implications of global drivers of changefor livestock production systems

Current status of livestock production systems

Each of the three main livestock production systemsresponds differently to the effects of the globaldrivers of change and therefore has differentdevelopment and investment needs Theoverarching trends are increasing intensification inboth industrial systems and in crop-livestocksystems in order to meet increasing demand foranimal products and consumer preferences forhigher-quality products that meet stringent foodsafety standardsbull Intensification and scaling up trends in

industrial and crop-livestock productionsystemsThe demand for livestock products has been metby intensification of livestock productionsystems in both developing and industrializedcountries Among other factors thisintensification has been based on using cerealgrains as livestock feed For example in OECDcountries livestock feeding in intensive systemsaccounts for two-thirds of the average per capitagrain consumption In contrast crop-livestocksystems in sub-Saharan Africa and India useless than 10 percent of grains as feeds as theyrely mostly on crop-residues (40ndash70 percent offeed) grazing and planted fodders

bull Market characteristics and demandThe trend towards intensification of industrialsystems and crop-livestock systems is largelydriven by consumer demands for livestockproducts both fresh and processed The marketcharacteristics are increasing demand for animal


15


Sereacute et al

Table 4 Share of livestock (total livestock units [TLU] cattle goats sheep pigs and poultry) per livestock production system for selected regions and countries

TLU shares () Livestock production system PS CLS IS Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana 80 19 014 Kenya 34 50 14 Mali 47 51 09 South Africa 55 36 8 Latin America and Caribbean Argentina 42 40 16 Brazil 18 63 17 Peru 44 21 33 East Asia and Pacific Cambodia 6 73 20 China 9 70 19 Viet Nam 075 82 16 South Asia India 2 82 15 Pakistan 25 63 10 Developed World European Union 9 67 22 Russian Federation 16 50 32

Source FAO (2004)

products in developing countries plus qualitypreferences and food safety requirements in allmarkets Public-private partnerships thatprovide services and market opportunities alsoplay a key role in intensifying industrial andcrop-livestock systems

Future trends in livestock production systems

Intensive systems Intensive systems are facingincreasing restrictions owing to their associatednegative environmental effects such as problems ofwaste disposal and water contamination Demand

Table 3 Geographic distribution of livestock (millions of head)

Cattle Sheep and

goats Pigs Poultry Sub-Saharan Africaa 219 365 22 865 Near East and North Africaa 23 205 0 868 Latin America and Caribbeana 370 112 70 2 343 North Americaa 110 10 74 2 107 East Europe and Central Asiaa 84 121 72 1 160 West Europea 83 119 125 1 072 East Asia and Pacifica 184 514 543 7 168 South Asiaa 244 303 15 777

Industrial worldb 318 390 284 4 663 Developing worldb 1 046 1 460 659 12 735

aAverage 2000ndash2005 number bReported number for 2004 Source FAOSTAT (2007)



for cereals is also increasing for other purposes(eg biofuels) and this is driving up the price ofcereals and subsequently the price of livestockproducts coming from intensive systems

Crop-livestock systems Crop-livestock systemsin developing countries are constrained by farmsize and lack of access to inputs and services Theseconstraints affect soil fertility crop yields incomegeneration and ultimately livestock productionthrough the limited provision of high-quality feedsThere is also increasing competition for land andassociated opportunity costs

Pastoral systems The remoteness and thelimited agricultural potential of pastoral systems inmarginal areas of the developing world createdifficulties for these systems to integrate into theexpanding markets for livestock products Thisposes a set of different needs related to adaptationof systems to reduce the vulnerability of livestockkeepers and their animals and expanding access tomarkets

A major driver of change in pastoral systemsover the past decades has been the widespreadpolicy to settle pastoralists and allocate themindividual land rights This approach and theincreasing encroachment of crop production haveseriously affected the viability of these systems byreducing the mobility of livestock and access to feedresources Although the negative aspects of thesepolicies are increasingly acknowledged they willcontinue to shape political processes in manydeveloping countries

Future implications of structural changes inlivestock production systems

In the industrial and mixed crop-livestock systemsrising demand for livestock products will continueto drive structural changes in these livestockproduction systems and markets Markettransformation particularly in urban markets willlead to the increasing importance of supermarketslarge livestock processors and transformation ofwholesale livestock markets Much of thistransformation has taken place in the industrializedcountries This pattern is expected to increase in thedeveloping world with a growing share ofindustrial livestock systems

Farmers in intensifying crop-livestock systemswill diversify their production into dairy and otherlivestock products even more in response to marketopportunities arising from rising demand forhigh-value foods Similarly income growth andurbanization will increase diversification of

consumer diets and the share of livestock productsin diets

The major changes in livestock markets aregoing to take place in domestic markets The relativeimportance of domestic markets versus trade in thefuture will reflect past trends in which domesticmarket dynamics were far more important thantrade For example in 1980 and 2001 meat exportsand imports were approximately four percent ofoutput and consumption in the developing worldIn contrast the share of domestic urban markets intotal livestock consumption has been increasingover the past 25 years

The growing importance of domestic urbanmarkets as opposed to international trade implieschanges of actors in domestic livestock industriesparticularly in agribusiness in wholesale marketslivestock processing and the retail industry withmore fresh and processed animal products beingsold through supermarkets

These structural changes in marketstransformation in urban markets and in retail anddistribution sectors in the livestock industry willhave profound impacts for the future ofsmallholders and poor livestock keepers incompeting with intensifying industrial andcrop-livestock systems in high potential areasEmpirical evidence from Asia shows thatsmallholder farmers provide up to half of the shareof production in dairy and meat marketsUndercapitalized small producers are likely to besqueezed out of dynamic domestic livestockmarkets Policy action that supports smallproducers who can be helped to become competitivewill have substantial equity pay-offs In the absenceof such pro-poor policies in the livestock sectormarket changes and the entry of new actors inlivestock processing distribution chains and theretail sector can marginalize poor people whodepend on livestock for their livelihoods

High transaction costs and limited access tomarkets will lead to a dramatic decline of share oflivestock production from pastoral systems inmarginal areas Without significant publicinvestments in infrastructure and services poorproducers in these areas will become increasinglymarginalized and many will have to leave livestockproduction as a source of income Livestock willcontinue to be important in traditional pastoralsystems as sources of food and fulfil multiple otheruses providing traction transport skins and hidesfor shelter


17


Sereacute et al

Implications for livelihoods

In terms of livelihood impacts the above changeswill lead to changes in the role of animal geneticresources for livelihoods in two divergent ways inintensive systems livelihoods will have a weak linkto genetic resources which will play veryspecialized production roles The major livelihoodimpacts will be through employment Frequentlythis will be limited direct employment in large-scaleoperations but some increased employment will beexpected along the value chain Consumerlivelihoods will be affected in terms of impact ofprices and of changed attributes of the animalproducts coming from these intensive systemsSociety-wide there may be negative impacts onlivelihoods of traditional smallholders displacedfrom markets by industrially produced animalproducts The net effects will depend significantlyon the policy environment and the extent ofsubstitution between animal products produced byindustrial systems and smallholder systems

In cropndashlivestock systems livelihoods will beaffected by the pressures to intensify and specializeproduction Systems may change from grazing tozero-grazed systems increasing milk productionwhile reducing animal traction This will implychanges in the labour patterns and possibly genderdistribution of work and benefits from animalproduction More intensively kept animals willrequire higher levels of management and externalinputs Increasing livelihood opportunities can beexpected to develop in these forward and backwardlinkages associated with these commodity chains

Pastoral systems in developing countries tend tohave very strong linkages to diverse species andbreeds of animals which allow them to adapt to theexploitation of natural resources with very uniqueattributes and generally very limited alternativeuses Livelihoods are intimately linked to theanimal genetic resources under these conditionsRisk is a major issue and the management ofmultiple species and multiple outputs is a key wayof coping Increasing competition for the resourcesas well as policy orientations towards settlingpastoralists significantly affect these peoplesrsquolivelihoods

In the industrialized world highly specializedpastoral production systems rely heavily on theiranimal genetic resources ndash normally a narrowgenetic base comprising one or two commercialbreeds of one or two species or a defined crossbredanimal population In relation to pastoral andsmallholder systems in developing countries thesesystems do not involve much labour Therefore the

livelihoods of fewer people are generally involvedin these production systems

Implications of the scope and rate ofchanges in livestock production systemsfor animal genetic resources management

The drivers of change and the evolution of thefarming systems that they induce will haveimportant effects on livestock biodiversity and itsuse This in turn implies that needs andopportunities for human intervention will vary

In industrial systems where it is largely possibleto adapt the environment to the needs of theanimals highly productive commercial breeds andhybrids are going to be the main genetic pillarGenetic resources are handled by the specializedprivate sector firms and traded internationallyTheir interest in hardiness or disease-resistancetraits will be limited unless diseases emerge forwhich no alternative control strategies are availableor policies require important changes in themanagement systems eg free-ranging instead ofcaged laying hens

In crop-livestock systems pressure to intensifywill be a major force shaping the production systemand the genetic resources underpinning itSignificant increases in productivity will berequired to meet demand and these will be achievedby simultaneously improving the conditions (feedhealth etc) and adapting the genetic resourcesGiven the heterogeneous environments manydifferent breeds will be required In higher potentialareas with good market access this specializationwill increasingly involve crossbreeding with exoticbreeds Given the relatively small numbers ofanimals of each breed required in these nichesthese genetic materials will not be produced byprivate multinational companies but will requireactive engagement of farmers public sector andnon-governmental organizations (NGOs) Thesesystems will continue to be an important source ofgenetic diversity and will also demand a range ofsolutions to fit their specific conditions As scienceimproves its capacity to understand the role ofspecific genes and their interaction withenvironmental factors triggering their expressionthe value of local breeds in targeted breedingprogrammes for these systems will increase Thesesystems will naturally use a diverse genetic baseand will be amenable to engage with in situconservation Supportive institutionalarrangements will be key to driving such efforts



In pastoral systems in developing countrieshigh levels of diversity can be encountered andtraits of disease-resistance and tolerance of harshenvironments are widely present These systems arefrequently declining in livestock numbers and inparticular small endemic populations are at risk Inthese settings conservation will require publicaction because of the limited resources of thegenerally poor pastoralists This will be an areawhere NGOs can be expected to play a key role inassisting in in situ conservation

Given the fragility of institutional arrangementsin many developing country contexts and theirexposure to natural and human-induced crisesthere is merit in designing ex situ in vitroconservation strategies as a back up and long-terminsurance against loss of diversity in the fieldThese conservation strategies will need to becoordinated at national and regionalinternationallevels to be efficient and cost-effective

Climate change considerations add animportant dimension to the discussion of livestockbiodiversity Different systems will be affected indifferent and highly uncertain ways but access togenetic resources could be a critical ingredient formost adaptation responses in the medium to longterm Table 5 summarizes major trends in livestocksystem evolution and their implications for themanagement of animal genetic resources

Conclusions and next steps

What immediate steps are possible toimprove animal genetic resourcescharacterization use and conservation

Appropriate institutional and policy frameworksare required to improve animal genetic resourcesmanagement and these issues are being addressedat national and intergovernmental levels in aprocess led by FAO to promote greater internationalcollaboration Based on an analysis of the currentsituation the continuing loss of indigenous breedsof farm animals new developments in science andtechnology and the strategies suggested for thefuture management of animal genetic resources (assummarized in table 5) there are severalcomplementary actions that can begin to improvethe management of animal genetic resources andmaintain future options in an uncertain world Thescientific basis that underpins these proposedactions is discussed in more detail in subsequentpapers Four areas for action to improve the

sustainable use and in situ conservationcharacterization and long-term ex situ conservationof animal genetic resources are summarized hereand are addressed in further detail in thecompanion papers

Sustainable use and in situ conservationof animal genetic resources

ldquoKeep it on the hoofrdquo ndash Encouraging the continuingsustainable use of traditional breeds and in situconservation of animal genetic resources by providingmarket-driven incentives public policy and othersupport to enable livestock keepers to maintain geneticdiversity in their livestock populations

In this context sustainable use refers to thecontinuing use of traditional breeds by livestockkeepers as a result of market-driven incentives Insitu conservation refers to animal genetic resourcesconservation measures supported by public policyand on occasion public investments to supportin situ conservation of traditional breeds bylivestock keepers

In regard to encouraging the sustainable use ofanimal genetic resources market-driven incentivesapplicable in developing countries includefacilitating access to markets for livestock productscoming from traditional breeds This may includeidentifying niche markets for traditional productsand providing infrastructure (such as transport) tohelp livestock keepers to get their products tomarket

Increasing the productivity of traditional breedsthrough breeding is also an incentive for livestockkeepers to retain these breeds (The companionpaper discusses the role of breeding in more detail)These breed improvement strategies could alsomake more use of the widespread crossing that hasoccurred in traditional populations over time aslivestock keepers seek to improve their breeds

In regard to encouraging in situ conservation ofparticular breeds especially in the diversity-richcrop-livestock and pastoral systems in developingcountries the incentives include having publicpolicies that support the conservation of traditionalbreeds and providing public services (eg humanand livestock health services schools roads) tosupport communities in livestock producing areasSuch services may encourage people to stay withtheir animals in rural areas rather than migrate tourban areas where more services are available

In situ conservation makes use of local andindigenous knowledge which can also be validatedscientifically For example some farmers have


19


Sereacute et al

realized that by crossbreeding part of their herd toan exotic breed they can make more profit duringthe good times but avoid the risk of losing all theiranimals when conditions are bad Exotic animalstend to be poorly adapted to harsh conditions andtend to die during droughts for example Thusgenetic variability reduces vulnerability to suddenchanges and shocks in the system

The concept of in situ conservation also extendsto conserving livestock as part of the landscapewithin an overall biodiversity conservation strategyas a long-term global public good

ldquoMove it or lose itrdquo ndash Enabling access and safe movementof animal genetic resources within and between countries

regions and continents

Maintaining mobility of animal breedspopulations and genes within and betweencountries regions and continents is one of the keyactions for facilitating the sustainable use andthereby the conservation of animal genetic

resources Safe movement of animal geneticresources enables their access use and conservationfor mutual benefit by livestock keepers worldwideMobility here refers to facilitating informed access togenetic diversity based on systematic breedevaluations and analysing the potential usefulnessof various breeds in different environments

There are benefits and risks in increasing themobility of animal genetic resources The benefit isthat in a fast-changing unpredictable worldmobility of animal genetic resources enablesflexibility in response to changing climatedisasters civil strife etc For example when civilstrife has occurred in some part of Africa animalsare moved across borders to avoid their unintendeddeath in conflicts One risk of increased mobility isthat animals moving to different environments maynot be adapted to their new environment livestocksystem or social system There are also animalhealth risks in terms of the possible spread ofdisease or by animals not being tolerant to thediseases prevalent in a new environment For

Table 5 Trends in livestock system evolution and their implications for the management of animal genetic resources

Livestock production system description and trends

AnGR ndash current status in system

AnGR management future strategy for each livestock production

system Industrial systems (IS) Industrial systems changing quickly expanding globally Controlled system almost ldquolandlessrdquo environment able to adapt environment to genetics Systems changing to reduce negative environmental impacts meet market demands and consumer preferences and address new issues (eg animal health and welfare) Changing systems require broader genetic base to address new issues and future shocks

Breeding by private sector with narrow genetic base in pigs poultry cattle High-value genetic stock protected by know-how and traded internationally Limited interest or incentive for private firms in conserving speciesbreed biodiversity

Commercial systems will continue to adapt environment to suit genetics (IS prefer to use most productive breeds and manage other production issues by non-genetic means) IS need to be able to respond to future shocks (eg identify tolerance to zoonotic diseases such as avian influenza and also identify more disease-resistant breeds able cope with diseases of intensification without antibiotics) Conserving AnGR of main industrial species (pigs poultry cattle) to maintain biodiversity is a long term public (and private) good to enable IS to deal with future options and new shocks






system Crop-livestock systems (CLS) Diverse systems with broader genetic base in industrialized and developing countries CLS dependent on natural resource (NR) base CLS less in control of environment than IS Future of CLS affected by market demands NR availability climate change land-use options CLS changing and intensifying production especially in developing countries but rate of change less than for IS Intensification options ndash better feed land water use genetic improvement

Developing and conserving AnGR by use in CLS (in situ) Genetic base more diverse than IS as animals need to be in balance with system and co-evolve with natural resource base Sustainable delivery of genetic material occurring in some CLS

Need to adapt animal genetics to changing environment CLS need to be able to respond to changing environment climate change effects other drivers of change conserving diverse AnGR in CLS is a public good Sustainable use of AnGR will help CLS maintain diversity and ability to respond to future drivers of change Smallholders may require incentives to continue to conserve AnGR in situ with changing more productive CLS (eg foster niche markets to encourage farmers to keep traditional breeds for short- and long-term value) Mobility of AnGR critical to maintain future options as CLS change in response to global drivers (mobility favours sustainable use of AnGR) Example of moving adapted AnGR to new areas when climate change affects system such as moving hardier animals to areas more prone to drought Institutional development to support sustainable AnGR management in CLS (eg farmers associations environmental food safety and animal health regulations)

( continued)


21


Sereacute et al




system Pastoral systems (PS) in marginal areas PS comprise rangelands in industrial and developing countries Systems determined by NR base usually in marginal environments Multiple value and uses of animals in traditional PS in developing countries PS changing more slowly than IS or CLS as least likely to be influenced by global drivers of change Some PS changing more quickly (eg in parts of India where there is competition for pastoral land for alternative uses) PS closely related to traditional (cultural) practices and institutions for the management of natural resources and traditional knowledge

PS in industrial countries have narrow genetic base PS in developing countries have diverse AnGR conserved through sustainable use Traditional AnGR conservation in situ by livestock keepers linked with indigenous knowledge of animals and land

Need to adapt animal genetics to marginal environment Maintaining diverse AnGR is desirable to reduce vulnerability of livestock keepers Future need to improve productivity of PS maintain livelihoods with less people likely to be living in marginal lands (eg animal health interventions) Genetic solutions through hardier animals able to adapt to harsher environments with few interventions Incentives to maintain in situ conservation practices and promote sustainable use (eg improve market access through better infrastructure foster niche markets for traditional animal products) Risk mitigation (eg better forecasting and strategies for handling risks in PS such as droughts) Payments for environmental services may mean alternative land-use options that complement or compete with livestock production requires adaptation of PS and related AnGR depending on the nature of the environmental service Institutional development to support policies and practices for grazing water and land-use rights

( continued)



transboundary movements these risks as well asthe benefit should be identified and shared withstakeholders prior to importation and riskmitigation steps taken before importing semenembryos or live animals into a country

Characterizing animal genetic resources

ldquoMatch breeds to environmentsrdquo ndash Understanding thematch between livestock breeds populations and genesand the physical biological and economic landscape

This ldquolandscape livestock genomicsrdquo approach offers themeans to predict the genotypes most appropriate to a

given environment and in the longer term to understandthe genetic basis of adaptation of the genotype to the

environment

In regard to the long-term prospects for thisresearch the advances in our ability to describe thegenome of an animal in unprecedented detailcoupled with our ability (through spatial analysis)to describe the landscape in which it resides ndash alandscape description that includes biotic abiotichuman and market influences ndash are beginning toprovide an opportunity to probe genome function ina unique way This is an approach already used tostudy the distribution of particular alleles inlivestock and to probe the human genome fordisease-causing genes Its potential forunderstanding the fit between livestock genotypeand landscape is significant and it depends onsophisticated data-management tools It also offersthe opportunity not only to understand the functionof the genome but also to predict the genotype mostappropriate to a given environment

This is a long-term research objective that can belinked with existing data-gathering exercises to addto their value For example building in systematicsampling of DNA of livestock breeds incombination with a careful description of thesystems under which each population presentlyfunctions and georeferencing the data will addgreatly to our ability to understand and utilizeanimal genetic resources For example we can beginto ask ldquowhat combination of genotypes is appropriate fora milking cow under a given management regime undera given range of disease pressures and under a given setof physical stressesrdquo Knowing this will enhance thevalue of genotypes ldquoin the bankrdquo or ldquoon the hoofrdquo andwill provide the tools we need to identifyintelligently appropriate genotypes for specificagro-ecological niches (Approaches to

characterizing AnGR are discussed further in thecompanion paper)

Ex situ conservation of animal geneticresources in gene banks

ldquoPut some in the bankrdquo ndash New technologies make ex situin vitro conservation of animal genetic resources feasible

for critical situations and a way to provide long-terminsurance against future shocks in all livestock

production systems

Improving technology (eg cryopreservation) ismaking long-term ex situ in vitro conservation ofsemen and embryos more feasible affordable andapplicable to a wider range of species Thechallenge is to decide which animal geneticresources to conserve how to collect them where tostore them when and how to characterize themand who can access use and benefit from them inthe future It is particularly important to collect therich diversity of traditional livestock breeds in crop-livestock and pastoral systems in developingcountries before it is lost forever

A risk is that ex situ in vitro gene banks canbecome ldquostamp collectionsrdquo put away in the deepfreeze and never characterized Another potentialrisk is that this approach may be a disincentive toin situ conservation through sustainable use wherethe genetic resources are more accessible in theshort to medium term and where not only thegenetic resources but also the traditional knowledgeassociated with them are conserved In fact in situand ex situ conservation approaches arecomplementary rather than competing approachesserving short- and long-term needs Ex situ in vitroanimal genetic resources conservation is along-term insurance policy and an important firststep in conserving animal genetic resources forfuture generations (Further details on conservationapproaches are given in the companion paper)

Closing remarksSeveral important drivers of change are leading torapid changes in the livestock production sectorthat have implications for the future management ofanimal genetic resources The multiple valuesfunctions and consequences of livestock productionsystems and their rapid rate of change lead todivergent interests within and between countriesConversely the uncertainty about the implications


23


Sereacute et al

of rapid multifaceted global change for eachlivestock production system and the resulting futurechanges in the required genetic make-up of theanimals makes collective action to tackleconservation of animal genetic resources along-term global public good Developing andconserving animal genetic resources will not bythemselves solve all these problems but areimportant first steps towards maintaining futureoptions

Advances in science and technology in areassuch as reproductive technology genomics andspatial analysis as well as progress inconceptualization of global public good productionfor the future management of animal geneticresources should enable the internationalcommunity to address both the short- and long-termchallenges in innovative ways

List of referencesFAO 2004 Working files produced by

Environmental Research Group Oxford UKunpublished

FAO 2006 Livestockrsquos long shadow ndashenvironmental issues and options by H SteinfeldP Gerber T Wassenaar V Castel M Rosales ampC de Haan Rome

FAO 2007 FAOSTAT statistical databaseRome (available at httpfaostatfaoorg)

IAASTD 2007 International Assessment ofAgriculture Science and Technology forDevelopment World Bank Washington DC (inpress)

IMF (International Monetary Fund) 2007World economic outlook database WashingtonDC

Reardon T amp Timmer PC 2005Transformation of markets for agricultural output indeveloping countries since 1950 how has thinkingchanged In R Evenson P Pingali amp TP Schultzeds Handbook of agricultural economics Vol 3AAmsterdam Elsevier

Reardon T Henson S amp Berdegueacute J 2007Proactive fast-trackingrsquo diffusion of supermarkets indeveloping countries implications for marketinstitutions and trade Journal of EconomicGeography 7 399ndash432

United Nations 2007 Common databaseNew York USA

World Bank 2006 World developmentindicators Washington DC

Bibliography for further readingDe Fraiture C Wichelns D Rockstrom J

Kemp-Benedict E Eriyagama N Gordon LHanjra MA Hoogenveen J Huber-Lee A ampKarlberg L 2007 Looking ahead to 2050 scenariosof alternative investment approaches Water forfood water for life In A comprehensive assessmentof water in agriculture London Earthscan andColombo International Water ManagementInstitute pp 9ndash145

Delgado C Rosegrant M Steinfeld HEhui S amp Courbois C 1999 Livestock to 2020 thenext food revolution Food Agriculture and theEnvironment Discussion Paper 28 WashingtonDC International food Policy Research Institute

Fisher P Hedeler C Wolstencroft KHulme H Noyes H Kemp S Stevens RT ampBrass A 2007 A systematic strategy for large-scaleanalysis of genotype-phenotype correlationsidentification of candidate genes involved inAfrican trypanosomiasis Nucleic Acids Research(in press)

Gibson J Gamage S Hanotte OIntildeiguez L Maillard JC Rischkowsky BSemambo D amp Toll J 2006 Options andstrategies for the conservation of farm animalgenetic resources Report of an internationalworkshop 7-10 November 2005 MontpellierFrance Rome CGIAR System-wide GeneticResources Programme (SGRP)BioversityInternational pp 53

ILRI (International Livestock ResearchInstitute) 2002 Livestock a pathway out ofpoverty ILRI rsquos strategy to 2010 Nairobi

ILRIFAO 2006 The future of livestock indeveloping countries to 2030 Workshop Report onFuture of Livestock in Developing Countries13-15 February 2006 Nairobi ILRI



adfbg

Kierstein S Noyes H Niessens JNakamura Y Pritchard C Gibson J Kemp S ampBrass A 2006 Gene expression profiling in amouse model for African trypanosomiasis GenesImmun 7 667ndash679

Lockhart DJ amp Winzeler EA 2000Genomics gene expression and DNA arraysNature 405 827ndash836

MacKenzie AA ed 2005 Biotechnologyapplications in animal heath and productionScientific and Technical Review 24(1) April 2005

Pittroff W Cartwright TC amp KothmannMM 2002 Perspectives for livestock ongrazinglands Archivos Latinoamericanos deProduccion Animal 10(2) 133ndash143



other support to enable livestock keepers tomaintain genetic diversity in their livestockpopulations

b ldquoMove it or lose itrdquo ndash Enabling access to andthe safe movement of animal geneticresources within and between countriesregions and continents is a key factor in usedevelopment and conservation of animalgenetic resources globally

c ldquoMatch breeds to environmentsrdquo ndashUnderstanding the match between livestockpopulations breeds and genes with thephysical biological and economic landscapeThis ldquolandscape livestock genomicsrdquo approachoffers the means to predict the genotypesmost appropriate to a given environmentand in the longer term to understand thegenetic basis of adaptation of the genotype tothe environment

d ldquoPut some in the bankrdquo ndash- New technologiesmake ex situ in vitro conservation of animalgenetic resources feasible for criticalsituations and are a way to provide long-terminsurance against future shocks

The multiple values functions andconsequences of livestock production systems andtheir rapid rate of change lead to divergent interestswithin and between countries Conversely theuncertainty about the implications of rapidmultifaceted global change for each livestockproduction system and the resulting future changesin the required genetic make-up of animal geneticresources make collective action to tackleconservation of animal genetic resources a long-term global public good Conserving animal geneticresources will not by itself solve these problems butit is an important first step towards maintainingfuture options

Advances in science and the technology inareas such as reproductive technology genomicsand spatial analysis as well as progress inconceptualization of global public good productionfor the future management of animal geneticresources should enable the internationalcommunity to address both the short- and long-termchallenges in innovative ways

ReacutesumeacuteCe reacutesumeacute analyse les facteurs cleacutes qui ont subi deschangements dans le secteur eacutelevage et propose uneeacutevaluation de lrsquoinfluence qursquoils ont eu sur lasituation actuelle et les prospectives futures dansles diffeacuterents systegravemes drsquoeacutelevage et de marcheacute au

niveau mondial On analyse eacutegalement les impactssur la gestion des ressources geacuteneacutetiques animalespour lrsquoalimentation et lrsquoagriculture Cette tendancese retrouve aussi bien dans les pays industrialiseacutesque dans ceux en deacuteveloppement mais les reacuteponsessont diffeacuterentes Dans les pays en deacuteveloppementces tendances ont une influence directe sur lacapaciteacute que preacutesente lrsquoeacutelevage agrave contribuer agravelrsquoameacutelioration de la qualiteacute de vie et agrave la reacuteductionde la pauvreteacute ainsi qursquoagrave lrsquoutilisation desressources naturelles Dans le monde industrialiseacutela proximiteacute de la base des ressources geacuteneacutetiquesanimales avec les systegravemes de production drsquoeacutelevageau niveau industriel ont porteacute au besoin deconserver une plus grande gamme des ressourcesgeacuteneacutetiques animales pour faire face aux incertitudesfutures telles que le changement climatique et leszoonoses

Dans lrsquoarticle on discute debull Quels sont les principaux facteurs de

changement dans les systegravemes drsquoeacutelevagebull Comment reacutepondent les systegravemes de production

drsquoeacutelevage aux facteurs de changement au niveaumondial

bull Quelles sont les implications sur la diversiteacute desressources geacuteneacutetiques animales et pour lesprospectives drsquoutilisation futures

bull Quels sont les deacutemarches immeacutediates quipermettront une ameacutelioration de lacaracteacuterisation des ressources geacuteneacutetiquesanimales leur utilisation et conservationDrsquoapregraves une reacutecente analyse de la situation

actuelle de la perte continue de races indigegravenes etdu nouveau deacuteveloppement de la science et de latechnologie il existe diffeacuterentes actionscompleacutementaires qui pourraient aider agrave ameacuteliorer lagestion des ressources geacuteneacutetiques animales etconserver des options pour le futur dans un mondeplein drsquoincertitude

Ces actions peuvent se reacutesumeacutes comme il suitbull Encourager lutilisation durable des races

traditionnellesbull Permettre laccegraves et la vente de ressources

geacuteneacutetiques animales dans et entre paysbull Compreacutehension du rapport entre eacutelevage races

et gegravenes avec le milieu physique biologique eteacuteconomique

bull La formation de stock comme assurance futureLrsquoincertitude sur les implications des

changements rapides sur chacun des systegravemes deproduction animale et les changements futurs quecela entraicircne en terme de demande de ressourcesgeacuteneacutetiques animales requiegravere drsquoune actioncollective pour faire face agrave la conservation desressources geacuteneacutetiques animales en tant que bien


5


Sereacute et al




































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Sereacute et al

Tabl

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9


Sereacute et al


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population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















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5


Sereacute et al




































7


Sereacute et al

Tabl

e 1 S

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nom

ic in

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tors

for s

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ed co

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ran

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tsw

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9


Sereacute et al


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30

40

50

60

70


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ge 2

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- 203

0 (

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0

50

100

150

200

250

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

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con

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

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t con

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11


Sereacute et al




population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg

























7


Sereacute et al

Tabl

e 1 S

ocio

-eco

nom

ic in

dica

tors

for s

elect

ed co

untr

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pop

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)

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pula

tion

(in

)

Ave

rage

an

nual

gr

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(in

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Ann

ual a

vera

ge in

US$

mill

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1990

ndash199

5 av

erag

e 20

00ndash2

005

aver

age

1990

19

95

2000

20

05

1990

20

04

1990

ndash200

4 19

97ndash1

999

2000

ndash200

2 20

03ndash2

005

Sub-

Saha

ran

Afr

ica

Bo

tsw

ana

850

82

1

68

45

83

62

42

52

30

77

161

363

K

enya

42

5

445

4

1 4

3 0

6 5

8 25

40

6

1 15

48

50

Sout

h A

fric

a 46

1

440

-0

3

31

42

51

49

57

30

1 95

5 2

991

2 58

1 La

tin A

mer

ica

and

the

Carib

bean

Arg

entin

a 45

9

365

-1

3

-28

-0

8

92

87

90

14

13 4

80

4 91

1 3

552

Br

azil

418

44

4

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4

2 4

3 2

9 75

84

2

3 26

713

23

942

14

501

Peru

36

0

331

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1

86

30

64

69

74

22

1 90

8 1

370

1 89

0 Ea

st A

sia a

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acifi

c

Cam

bodi

a 20

5

201

1

1 6

5 8

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4

13

19

55

226

148

198

Ch

ina

269

24

6

38

109

8

4 10

4

27

40

36

42 2

47

43 9

83

60 3

80

V

iet N

am

167

18

0

50

95

68

84

20

26

34

1 76

8 1

333

1 67

1 So

uth

Asia

Indi

a 26

51

307

5 6

0 7

6 5

3 9

2 26

29

2

5 2

794

4 89

4 5

552

Pa

kist

an

491

53

5

45

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43

80

31

34

33

585

505

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urce

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007)

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orld

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k (2

006)

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nite

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ns (2

007)













9


Sereacute et al


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


chan

ge 2

001

- 203

0 (

)



0

50

100

150

200

250

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

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con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson

)










0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

mea

t con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson



11


Sereacute et al




population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg

















9


Sereacute et al


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


chan

ge 2

001

- 203

0 (

)



0

50

100

150

200

250

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

milk

con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson

)










0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

mea

t con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson



11


Sereacute et al




population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg













0

20

40

60

80

100

120

196971 197981 198991 199901 2030 2050

year

mea

t con

sum

ptio

n (k

gpe

rson



11


Sereacute et al




population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg






11


Sereacute et al




population and












around 1990)
























13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg





















13


Sereacute et al






























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg
























15


Sereacute et al



Source FAO (2004)





Cattle Sheep and



















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg




















17


Sereacute et al




























19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg






















19


Sereacute et al























( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg













( continued)


21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg






21


Sereacute et al







( continued)








environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg












environment







production systems





23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg






23


Sereacute et al






















adfbg







adfbg






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