durero task: wp 4: water scarcity and droughts indicators grupo de investigación en hidrobiología...
TRANSCRIPT
DURERO Task: WP 4: Water Scarcity and Droughts indicators
Grupo de Investigación en Hidrobiología
Lisboa, 19 December 2014
E.T.S. Ingeniería de Montes, Forestal y del Medio NaturalUniversidad Politécnica de Madrid
Deliverable 1. Development of a WS&D riparian indicator
Judit Maroto, Marta González del Tánago, Diego García de Jalón, Vanesa Martínez Fernández
1.-Hydro-meteorological analysis
2. Land cover assessment
3.-Riparian vegetation characterization
1.-Hydro-meteorological analysis
Decreasing trend in annual runoff
Water table decline Period Station GW(m) τ
1985-2000 Lastras de Cuellar
-2.48 -0.236 *
2000-2008 Boecillo -10.38 -0.461**
Observations3.48 Hm3 (1942-1959) Mann-Kendall Test 0.236*3.70 Hm3 (1960-2008) Mann-Kendall Test -0.461*
Increase of intermittency Perennial Runoff (1942-1978): 0 days with 0 m3/s /year
Intermittent Runoff (1979-2011): 14.7 days with 0 m3/s /year
Interpretation
Probably increase of evapotranspirationNo trend in precipitationIncreasing trend in temperature (0.320**)
Groundwater explotation (although no data previous to 1978 found for piezometers)
Deliverable 1. Development of a WS&D riparian indicator (Cega River)
Deliverable 1. Development of a WS&D riparian indicator (Cega River)
2.-Land cover assessment
1956 20060%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Shrub and/herbaceous vegetation
Pastures
Open spaces with little or no vegetation
Forest
Artificial surfaces
Agricultural areas
Methodology: Air photo 1956 – Corine 2006
No significant temporal changes over time in forest area
Decrease of the agricultural area
Increase of shrub and herbaceous vegetation
Reinforcement of the hypothesis of groundwater extraction as the main cause of water decline
Deliverable 1. Development of a WS&D riparian indicator (Cega River)
3.-Riparian vegetation: Composition and structure
Cega River1956
1956 20120
20
40
60
80
100
Poplar plantationPasturesNatural vegetationActive Channel
Active Channel
Natural vegetation
Pastures
Poplar plantation
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40
Composition Structure
River bank mixed Salicaceae formation Seedling of Salix and Fraxinus angustifolia. Mature shrubs and trees of Salicacea species.
Floodplain Fraxinus angustifolia formation Mature forest of Fraxinus angustifolia, with shrub strata of terrestrial species
Deliverable 1. Development of a WS&D riparian indicator (Cega River)
3.-Riparian vegetation: Composition and structure
Riparian forest expansion
Salicacea formation recruitment in contact with the water flow
Ash formation stabilized and mature
What we are working in:Indicators-Species composition -Recruitment-Age-size structure
Deliverable 2.Development of a river connectivity WS&D indicator
Gonzalo Rincón, Carlos Alonso, Joaquín Solana, Diego García de Jalón, Santiago Saura
1.-Objective and graph-based representation
2.-Passability Index (PI) application
3.- Importance of nodes
1.-Main objetive: understand and quantify the loss of connectivity in the rivers Cega and Pirón due the presence of transversal obstacles and their impact in the natural movement of representative fish species like brown trout (Salmo trutta), barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) and the northern straight-mouth nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense).
Transform the Cega and Pirón fluvial network into a graph-based representation.
Nodes (grey circles) represent the stream segments of the
rivers.
Black circles represent transversal obstacles that alter longitudinal connectivity in this water basin.
Deliverable 2.Development of a river connectivity WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
2.-Passability Index (PI) (González Fernández et al 2010)
PI= P upstream + P downstream (for each species)
Cega River
Pirón River
PI = 100 Insurmountable.PI = 0 Totally surmountable.Intermediate values of PI crossing depends of flow conditions and the characteristics of the fish specie.
PI value Obstacles
0 - 9 13
10 – 30 10
31 – 50 2
51 – 80 4
80 – 100 39
PI Value
Deliverable 2.Development of a river connectivity WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
3.-Connectivity values (BC and PC index*):Importance of nodes (stream segments) in Cega-Pirón graph.
NodeBetweenness
Centrality
22 0.076
7 0.066
6 0.063
11 0.048
26 0.034
23 0.034
13 0.018
19 0.004
36 0.001
32 0.001
* Saura S, Pascual-Hortal L (2007)
The results of this index determines which are the main nodes in Cega and Pirón rivers for the connectivity and conservation of ecological processes and the importance of
its preservation for maintaining fish migration pathways.
Node dPC
11 62.56
7 55.09
22 50.43
6 45.34
26 41.16
13 21.01
30 19.71
27 12.04
8 7.53
23 6.32
Node dPCintra
11 10.06
4 4.76
30 1.21
13 1.10
21 0.77
26 0.73
22 0.66
7 0.55
27 0.43
29 0.17
Node dPCflux
11 40.10
30 18.50
13 17.73
26 14.77
22 14.16
7 13.06
27 11.61
8 7.36
6 3.60
23 2.58
Deliverable 2.Development of a river connectivity WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
Still working in:
• Application of a probabilistic index of connectivity to measure the connectivity upstream and downstream for the selected fish species.
• Determine the importance of each obstacle for the overall connectivity in a water scarcity context.
Deliverable 2.Development of a river connectivity WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
Deliverable 3.Fish based WS&D indicator
José María Santiago, Carlos Alonso, Diego García de Jalón
1.-Goal and methodology2.-Still working in
1.-Goal: assess climate change impact on the stream temperature and on the natural flow regimen in the Cega River basin
Deliverable 3.Fish based WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
What has been done
• Thermal behaviour of Cega and Pirón modelled relating water temperature and air temperature (11 termographs)
• 38 electrofishing sampling plots in Cega and Pirón river
• Climate change modelling with IPCC5 scenarios(air temperature and precipitation)
• General conclusion• Precipitation is predicted to decline at the end of the century• A severe increase in the air temperatures may exacerbate the
hydrological stress
Climate warming might drive a retraction up to 56% of the current brown trout thermal habitat
Deliverable 3.Fish based WS&D indicator (Cega and Pirón rivers)
2.-Still working in:Artificial neural networks methodology is being used to model the instantaneous flow from Cega and Pirón gauging stations data, and from meteorological data (precipitation
and air temperature) from several AEMET stations using different delays.
To predict trout response to increase in water temperature exarcerbated by hydrological stress
Ingrid Maldonado, Diego García de Jalón
Deliverable 4. Ecological Flow Regime WS&D indicator
1.-Ecological Flow of Cega River2.-Ecological Flow or Adaja River
Cega River: underground extractions
Deliverable 4. Ecological Flow Regime WS&D indicator
1 19 37 55 73 91 1091271451631811992172352532712893073253433610
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Annual discharge
Periodo 1942-1969
Periodo 1970- 2011
Disc
harg
e m
3/s
0 0 . 5 1 1 . 5 2 2 . 5 3 3 . 5 4 4 . 5 50
20406080
100120140160180
WUA and discharge
barbo adulto
barbo juvenil
barbo alevin
Discharge (m3/s)
WUA
(m2)
Octubre
Noviembre
Diciembre
Enero
FebreroMarzo Abril
MayoJunio
Julio
Agosto
Septiembre0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Ecological Flow
Q Min Lower quartileQ Ecol Casimir
Disc
harg
e m
3/s
Adaja River: flow regulation
Deliverable 4. Ecological Flow Regime WS&D indicator
1 20 39 58 77 96 11513415317219121022924826728630532434336202468
1012141618
Pre-1994 Post-1994
Days of the year from 1st october to 30th september
Med
ian
disc
harg
e m
3/s
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 70
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400WUA and discharge barbo adulto
barbo juvenilbarbo alevin
Discharge [m³/s]
WUA
m²
Octubre
Noviembre
Diciembre
Enero
FebreroMarzo Abril
MayoJunio
Julio
Agosto
Septiembre0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Ecological Flow
QminLower quartileQ ecol Casimir
Disc
harg
e m
3/s
Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Set0
50
100
150
200
250
WUA along the year
Qecol Casimir Q Min Q Medio
WUA
m2
SummaryD1.Riparian Indicator D2.River connectivity D3.Fish based
IndicatorD4.Ecological Flow regime
What has been done
1.Hydrologic, climatic, diagnosis. 2.Temporal changes in vegetation covers.3.Composition and structure of riparian vegetation 1-km reach
1.Fluvial network into a graph-based representation. 2.Passability Index (PI) 3.Connectivity values: Importance of nodes (stream segments)
1.Thermal behaviour of Cega and Pirón modelled relating data of termographs and air temperature. 2.Climate change modelling
1.Ecological Flow regime for Cega River2. Ecological Flow regime for Adaja River
Problems encountered
Lack of historical discharge information downstreamLack of conexion with water table level information
-Determine the number and value of nodes and links in the graph representation.-Obtaining information to quantify the values of the stream segments.
-problems arose when simulating rare events
Still working in
Riparian Indicators Application of a probabilistic index of connectivity to measure the connectivity upstream and downstream for the selected fish species
Modelling flow from existing gauging stations and existing meteorological data
Indicators
Timetable to fullfill
February 2015 February 2015 February 2015 February 2015
Muito obrigado
Deliverable 1. contact: Judit Maroto [email protected]
Deliverable 2. contact: Gonzalo Rincón [email protected]
Deliverable 3. contact: Jose María Santiago [email protected]
Deliverable 4. contact: Diego García de Jalón [email protected]
Grupo de Investigación en Hidrobiología
Cross section of river Cega in Lastras de Cuellar
Active channel in 2012
Active channel in 1956