GEOGRAPHICAL PROFILING OF VOLUME CRIMETESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND THE HEURISTIC POTENTIALERIC HALFORD MSC

Origin of Thesis

Austerity MeasuresNeed for value for moneyA necessity to embrace the three E's, Efficiency, Economy, EffectivenessHow do you apply science to policing?

The Literatureo Criminology, Psychology, Policing

o Problem Orientated Policing

o Intelligence Led Policing

o Absence of literature on methods to predict crime

o Crime Linkage – How do we predict two or more crimes are linked?

o Geographical Profiling – How do we profile these crimes to predict the offender?

o Heuristics – Greatest value for money if accuracy is comparable

o A lack of operational empirical literature across Policing academia

The Crime Linkage Thesis

Can crime be reliably linked using behavioural and physical characteristics?Can regression and ROC analysis provide decision making thresholds?Can it be done heuristically?Is heuristic accuracy comparable?

The Geo Profiling Thesis

Can 'volume' crime be profiled?Do the commonly held assumptions hold true?Can it be done heuristically?Is predictive accuracy comparable?

Combined Thesis

Can the two theories be drawn together?Will they continue to be accurate?Can they be combined heuristically?Can the heuristic approach remain competitive?

Geographical ProfilingIdentified as the area with least academic researchNo practical studiesMajority of research on major crime i.e. MurderAll research was historic i.e. post conviction

DEFINITION

“An investigative technique used to

determine the most likely location of a

criminal’s residence based upon the

geographic location of crime sites”

(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)

The History

Dr Kim Rossmo - Father of geo profilingDr Brent Snook - First to test heuristically'All' research retrospectiveVery little regarding volume crime

The Assumptions

Serious crime only5 or more crimesComplexity equates to accuracy i.e. more crimes and GISMarauders not commuters

The StepsOffencesCrime linkage – currently reliant on tangible linkage i.e. forensicsGeographical profilingTraditional policing techniques – subsequent use of resources to target the profiled area and suspects.

The Ultimate Goal

Volume crime - cradle to grave – crime linkage to geographic profile

Heuristic vs complexity - accuracy

Theory into practicality - operational effectiveness

Increase in the three Es and a reduction in crime

How Will it be Tested?Crime Linkage - Regression and ROC analysisCase study heuristic testing

Linkage – Profiling –Training – Repeat - Combined

ComparisonTrainingAction research

Literature Contribution

Re-contextualisation of existing theories within a new context.Corroboration and elaboration on existing theoretical models.Collaboration of multiple existing theories to produce new insights.Conclusion of the theories feasibility and utilityImplementation of a theoretical framework

The End ProductBest practice frameworkEmpirically testedRejuvenate two fields - GP and Policing AcademiaIncrease detections and convictionsDecrease crime

The Future

Can further predictive theories be incorporated?Optimal Forager theoryCould this produce a completely scientific framework to predicting crime?

Optimal Forager + Crime Linkage + Geographical Profiling

SIMPLE'S!ANY QUESTIONS?