dundee city economic profile march 2016 · the dundee economic profile contains labour market...

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Dundee City Economic Profile

March 2016

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Foreword:

The Dundee Economic Profile contains labour market information and analysis on the

strategic situation of the Dundee City economy and of the labour market. This publication

contains high level national statistics, designed to inform on the overall performance of the

city and regional economy. Analysis is presented in order to give a more complete picture

of Dundee City’s current labour market and economic situation. All statistics in relation

industry relate to business and enterprise registered in Dundee unless stated. All statistics in

relation to employment, economic activity and out-of-work benefits is presented in relation

to the residential population of the Dundee City local authority area, as opposed to those

that work in Dundee, unless otherwise stated. All information within this document is

available publically and sourced from official government sources, unless disclosure and

restriction controls are stated. All information within is accurate as at April 2016.

Contents:

Economic Overview P.3

Population and Demographics P.4-9

Population Projections P.10-11

Business, Sectors and Enterprise P.12-30

Employment P.31-37

Economic Activity P.38-44

Unemployment P.45-53

Out of Work Benefits P.54-69

Income and Earnings P.70-76

Property and Housing P.77-79

Appendices P.80-81

All enquiries in relation to this publication can be directed to: Policy and Funding Team City Development Dundee City Council Tel: 01382 434651

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Dundee City Economic Overview: Dundee is the fourth largest city in Scotland, with a population of 148,300. Dundee has

a male population of 71,400, at 48.1 per cent and a female population of 76,900, at 51.9 per cent in 2014.

Dundee City has working age population of 98,700, representing 66.6 per cent of the total population, compared to the Scottish national average of 64.8 per cent. In 2014, Dundee City had the fourth highest working age population of any Scottish Local Authority area. Dundee City is the smallest local authority area in Scotland has but the second highest population density in Scotland.

Dundee City has the largest proportion population of people aged 18-24 in all of Scotland, at 13.6 per cent of the total population. Dundee has the second largest proportional population of those aged 18-29 in all of Scotland, at 22.2 per cent of the resident-based population.

Dundee City has the largest proportional student population in all of Scotland. In 2014, Dundee City had 2.8 per cent of the Scottish population, with 8.6 per cent of Scottish Higher Education students attending the city’s universities.

Between 2010 and 2015, the number of enterprises in Dundee City increased from 3,425

to 3,735. Turnover for all enterprise in Dundee City increased from £4,458 million in

2010 to £5,044 million in 2015.

By September 2015, Dundee City had the lowest employment rate of any Scottish local authority area, with 61,400 people and 63.3 per cent of the working age population in employment.

Dundee City has the fourth highest unemployment rate of any Scottish local authority, at 8.3 per cent and 5,500 people as of September 2015. By February 2016, the Claimant Count head-line unemployment rate for Dundee was 3.2 per cent, the third highest in all of Scotland.

By September 2015, Dundee City had the lowest economic activity rate and the highest economic inactivity rate in all of Scotland, with 69.0 per cent of the working age population economically active and 31.0 per cent economically inactive. Approximately 3 out of 10 of Dundee City’s working age population were not engaged within the labour market in 2015.

The performance of the Dundee economy is markedly higher from a regional

perspective, in comparison to the economic performance in relation to the resident-based population. Economic recovery and output has taken place, although the resident population has not experienced this, with the city having a large population of employment and income deprived residents.

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Population and Demographics Demographics

Population Estimates: Dundee and Scotland (2014)

Population Estimates: Dundee and Scotland 2014

Males % Females % All People

Dundee City 71,362 48.1 76,898 51.9 148,260

Scotland 2,596,384 48.6 2,751,216 51.4 5,347,600

Share of Working Age Population: Dundee and Scotland (2014)

Share of Working Age Population: Dundee and Scotland Mid-2014

Under 16 % Aged 16-64 % 65+ % Total

Dundee City 23,037 15.5 99,427 67.1 25,796 17.4 148,260

Scotland 911,282 17.0 3,467,929 64.9 968,389 18.1 5,347,600

(Source): GRO Mid-year Population Estimates 2014

In 2014, Dundee City had a significantly larger population of working age people than

the Scottish national average, with 67.1 per cent of the population of working age in

Dundee.

In 2014, 11.3 per cent of Dundee City’s population were females aged 18-29 and 10.9

per cent of the population were male aged 18-29.

7.1 per cent of Dundee City’s population were females aged 18-24 in 2014 and 6.5 per

cent of the City’s population were males aged 18-24.

5

Source: GRO Mid Year Population Estimates 2014.

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

Population

Dundee City Mid-Year Population by Sex 2014 Male Female

6

Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimates 2014

As of 2014, Dundee City had a significantly larger percentage of the population aged 20-24 and 25-29 than the Scottish national average. The percentage of Dundee City’s population aged 20-24 in 2014 was 10.5 per cent, compared to the Scottish national average of 6.9 per cent.

The percentage of Dundee City’s population aged 25-29 in 2014 was 8.6 per cent, compared to the Scottish national average of 6.7 per cent.

Dundee City has a substantially larger proportion of its population aged 20-30 than the Scottish national average. In 2014, 13.6 per cent of Dundee City’s population were aged 18-24, compared to the Scottish national average of 9.3 per cent. Proportionally, Dundee City has the largest population aged 18-24 in all of Scotland.

In 2014, 22.2 per cent of Dundee City’s population were aged 18-29, compared to the Scottish national average of 16.0 per cent.

In 2014, Dundee City had the second largest proportional population aged 18-29 in all of Scotland. The 2008 economic recession has had disproportionally larger impact on areas with younger populations. This is combination with existing levels of concentrated deprivation and weaker local economic performance, have had substantial impacts on Dundee City’s economic recovery.

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90+

Percentage

Population Estimates 2014 - Dundee City & Scotland

Dundee City Scotland

7

Source: ONS Population Estimates 2014.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0Population Aged 18-29 by Scottish Local Authority Area (2014)

Aged 18 - 24 Aged 25 - 29 years Aged 18-29

8

Source: ONS Population Estimates 2014.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

Population (%) Aged 18-24 by Scottish Local Authority Area 2014

Scotland

9

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011: *Socio-economic Classification by Household Reference Person.

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

12.00%

13.00%

14.00%

15.00%

16.00%

17.00%

18.00%

19.00%

20.00%

21.00%

22.00%

23.00%

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Socio-Economic Classification (HRP: Aged 16-74): Dundee City & Scotland 2011


10

Population Projections:

Dundee City Population Projections 2012- 2037

Source: NRS Population Projections for Scottish Areas

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Population Projection - Dundee City 2012-2037

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Change in Demographic Composition Dundee City 2012-2037

0-15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+

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Between 2012 and 2037, the population of Dundee City is projected rise 15.6 per cent and by 23,000, from 147,800 in 2012 to 170,800 in 2037.

It is projected that the percentage share of the Dundee City population aged 0-15 will increase from 2012 to 2037, from 16.0 per cent in 2012, to 17.5 per cent in 2037.

The percentage increase of Children aged 0-15 between 2012 and 2037 for Dundee City will be 26.0 per cent, compared to the Scottish national average which is projected to increase by 5.5 per cent within the same period.

The percentage increase of the Working Age population between 2012 and 2037 for Dundee City is projected to be 15.8 per cent, compared to the Scottish national average, which is projected to increase by 4.0 per cent within the same period.

The percentage increase of those of a Pensionable Age of 65 plus between 2012 and 2037 for Dundee City will be 6.1 per cent, compared to the Scottish national average over the same period, which is projected to increase by 26.7 per cent

It is projected that the percentage of the Dundee City population who are aged 65-74 and 75 plus will increase from 8.7 to 9.0 per cent and 8.3 to 10.4 per cent respectfully.

Although a projected increase is forecast in Dundee City of those of a Pensionable Age 65 plus, this figure the lowest percentage increase of all Scottish local authorities.

Dundee has one of the highest proportional working age populations of any Scottish Local Authority. The number of people aged 18-30 living in Dundee is substantially higher than the Scottish national average and Dundee City has the highest proportional population Aged 18 -24 in Scotland.

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Business, Sectors and Enterprise Between September 2009 and Spetember 2014, the Dundee City economy lost

approximatly 2,500 full time jobs. The sectors which have been affected by this most

have been Information and Comunication services, which lost 600 full-time jobs,

Construction, which lost 600 full-time jobs and Manufacturing, which lost apporximatly

500 full-time jobs. The total number of employee jobs declined by approximatly 1,900

within the same time period and 600 additional part-time jobs were created in Dundee

Cit between 2009 and 2014.

Approximatly 300 employee jobs were created within the Professional, Scientific &

Technical sector between 2009 and 2014. Within the Business Administration and

Support Service sector, an additional 300 part-time jobs were created. More than 1,000

additional full-time jobs were created between 2013 and 2014 within this sector in

Dundee.

Dundee has a proportionally higher percentage of the workforce employed within the

Public Sector, with 30.2 per cent of employment in Dundee in the Public Sector in 2014,

compared to the Scottish national average of 23.5 per cent of employees within the

Public Sector.

By 2015, the largest employment sectors in Dundee City were Wholesale, Retail &

Repairs, accounting for 12,270 employees, Education, Human Health & Social Services,

with approxiamatly 10,040 employees and Accomodation and Food Services, with

approximatly 4,650 employees.

Between 2010 and 2015, there were approximatly 300 more registered enterprises in

Dundee City, with 3,735 enterprises in 2015. Total employment within these enterprises

has retured to the approximate level in 2010, with 51,070 people employed within these

entterprises in 2015.

The approximate annual turnover of Dundee City enterprise increased from £4,458

million in 2010 to £5,044 million in 2015. The sector with the largest turnover was the

Wholesale, Retail and Repairs Sector, with £1,760 million generated in 2015 and

accounting for 34.9 per cent of enterprise turnover.

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Source: Businesses in Scotland, 2015.

In 2015, there were 298 registered enterprises per 10,000 adults in Dundee City, with

3,735 registered private sector enterprises. There were 382 private sector enterprises

pere 10,000 adults in Scotland in 2015.

The number of registered private sector enterprises in Dundee has increased from 3,425

in 2010 to 3,735 in 2015, from 280 private sectro enterprises per 10,000 adults to 298.

The number of registered enterprises in Dundee City increased by 6.4 per cent between

2010 and 2015. The number of registered private sector enterprises in Scotland

increased by 9.7 per cent between 2010 and 2015.

298

382

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Registered Private Sector Enterprise per 10,000 Adults


14

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey 2014.

Between 2009 and 2014, the total number of employee jobs declined by approximately 1,900 jobs, with 75,600 jobs within all sectors in 2009, to 73,700 in

2014. The number of Information & Communication and Construction jobs declined by approximately 600 each between 2009 and 2014.

-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Mining, quarrying & utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Motor trades

Wholesale

Retail

Transport & storage

Accommodation & food

Information & communication

Financial & insurance

Property

Professional, scientific & technical

Business admin & support

Public admin & defence

Education

Health

Arts, entertainment, rec & other

Change in Total Employment by Sector - Dundee City 2009-2014

15


Between 2013 and 2014, the total number of employee jobs increased by approximately 2,000 jobs, with approximately 71,700 jobs within all sectors in

2013, to 73,700 jobs within all sectors in 2014. There were approximately 1,000 more jobs in Business Admin and Support between 2013 and 2014.

-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100

Agriculture, forestry & fishing


Manufacturing

Construction

Motor trades

Wholesale

Retail

Transport & storage


Information & comm


Property

Professional, scientific & tech



Education

Health

Arts, ent, rec & other

Change in Total Employees by Industry Sector - Dundee City 2013-2014

16


The number of employees in Scotland between 2009 and 2014 increased by approximately 30,300, with approximately 20,500 more jobs being created

within the health sector. By contrast, the number of jobs within the Dundee health sector declined over the same period.

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000

Agriculture, forestry & fishing


Manufacturing

Construction

Motor trades

Wholesale

Retail

Transport & storage




Property




Education

Health


Change in Total Employees by Sector - Scotland 2009-2014

17


Between 2009 and 2014, the total number of full-time employee jobs declined by approximately 2,500, from 51,700 full-time jobs to 49,200. The

Construction and Information & Communication sectors lost approximately 600 full-time jobs; 500 full-time manufacturing jobs were also lost.

-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300


Manufacturing

Construction

Motor trades

Wholesale

Retail

Transport & storage




Property




Education

Health


Change in Full-time Employees by Sector - Dundee City 2009-2014

18


Between 2009 and 2014, the total number of part-time employee jobs increased by approximately 600, with 23,800 part-time jobs in 2009, to 24,400 part

time jobs in 2014. Approximately 300 part-time jobs have been created within the Business Administration and Support Services sector.

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350


Manufacturing

Construction

Motor trades

Wholesale

Retail

Transport & storage




Property




Education

Health


Change in Part-time Employees by Sector - Dundee City 2009-2014

19


Dundee has a comparatively larger proportion of its labour market employed within the public sector. In 2015, the public sector accounted for 30.2 per

cent of all employment and 23.5 per cent of all Scottish employment. Public sector employment has declined in Dundee since 2008.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

% t

ota

l em

plo

yee

s Employment Composition by Sector - Dundee City & Scotland 2014


20

Source: Scotland’s Census 2011.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

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Employment by Industry Sector & Age: Dundee City 2011

16 to 19

20 to 21

22 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 74

21

Source: The Scottish Government: Businesses in Scotland 2015.

In 2015, there largest sectors in terms of number of enterprises in Dundee City were Wholesale, retail and repairs (840), Professional, Scientific and

Technical (500) and Construction (395).

1.1%

6.2%

10.6%

22.5%

2.4%

9.8% 4.8%

2.1%

4.4%

13.4%

5.9%

7.6%

2.1% 7.0%

Number of Enterprises - Dundee City 2015

A, B, D, E, Primary Industries

C Manufacturing

F Construction

G Wholesale, retail & repairs

H Transport

I Accomodation & food

J Information & comms

K Financial & insurance

L Real estate activities

M Professional, scientific & tech

N Administrative & support

P, Q Education, health & social

R Arts, entertainment & rec

S Other activities

22


By 2015, the largest sectors in terms of total employment within Dundee were Wholesale, Retail & Repairs (12,270 employees), Education, Human Health

and Social Service (10,040 employees), Manufacturing (4,910 employees) and Accommodation and Food Services (4,650 employees).

0.8%

9.6%

5.5%

24.0%

3.4%

9.1% 5.5%

2.5%

1.6%

6.1%

5.7%

19.7%

3.6% 3.0%

Total Employment - Dundee City 2015


C Manufacturing

F Construction


H Transport









S Other activities

23


By 2015, the industry sectors with the largest annual turnover in Dundee were Wholesale, Retail & Repairs (£1,760 million), Manufacturing ($975 million),

Education, Human Health and Social Service (£346 million) and Information and Communication (£344 million).

5.0%

19.3%

5.8%

34.9%

2.5%

3.4%

6.8%

0.0%

1.6% 3.7%

4.0%

6.9% 5.2%

1.0%

Percentage of Turnover (£ millions) - Dundee City 2015


C Manufacturing

F Construction


H Transport









S Other activities

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3,425 3,350 3,430 3,465

3,610 3,735

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of enterprises - Dundee City 2010-2015

51,750

48,910 49,380 49,510 50,380 51,070

02,5005,0007,500

10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,00032,50035,00037,50040,00042,50045,00047,50050,00052,50055,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total employment - Dundee City 2010-2015

25


According to the Scottish Government’s Business in Scotland 2015 publication, between

2010 and 2015, the number of enterprises in Dundee City increased from 3,425 to 3,735.

Total employment within these enterprises was 51,070, having returned to the approximate

same level as 2010. Turnover for all enterprise in Dundee City increased from £4,458 million

in 2010 to £5,044 million in 2015.

The number of people employed within all enterprise in Dundee City fell to 48,910 in 2011.

By 2015, the number of employees had returned to approximate level recorded in 2010,

with 51,070 people employed in 2015.

In 2015, Dundee’s largest industrial sector was (G) Wholesale, Retail and Repairs, with 840

enterprises, 12,270 employees and an annual turnover of £1,760 million.

Between 2010 and 2015, the number of enterprises and total turnover for Dundee City has

increased, whilst the total employment has experienced comparatively weaker growth.

According to the Scottish Government’s Business in Scotland data, productivity in Dundee

City has increased in spite of weak employment growth.

4,458 4,398 4,610

4,783 4,916

5,044

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Turnover (£ millions) - Dundee City 2010-2015

26

Number of registered enterprises in Dundee City and their total employment and turnover, March 2010-2015 2015 2010

0-49 employees

Number of enterprises 3,165 2,830

Total employment 16,100 14,420

Turnover (£ millions) 1,145 1,110

50-249 employees

Number of enterprises 170 180


Turnover (£ millions) 722 632

250+ employees




Total




Source: The Scottish Government: Business in Scotland 2015.

Number of registered enterprises in Dundee City and their total employment and turnover by sector, March 2010-2015

2015 2010

A, B, D, E Primary industries


Total employment 410 320


C Manufacturing




F Construction




G Wholesale, retail and repairs




H Transport and storage




I Accommodation and food service



27


J Information and communication




K Financial and insurance activities



Turnover (£ millions) NA NA



Total employment 800 630


M Professional, scientific and technical




N Administrative and support service




P, Q Education, human health and social




R Arts, entertainment and recreation




S Other service activities




Total




Source: The Scottish Government: Business in Scotland 2015.

28

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, September 2015

SOC 2010 Employment Designations:

SOC 1: Managers, Directors and Senior Officials

SOC 2: Professional Occupations

SOC 3: Associate Professional & Technical Occupations

SOC 4: Administrative and Secretarial Occupations

SOC 5: Skilled Trades Occupations

SOC 6: Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations

SOC 7: Sales and Customer Service Occupations

SOC 8: Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

SOC 9: Elementary Occupations

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Employment by Occupation (%) - Dundee City SOC 1 SOC 2 SOC 3 SOC 4 SOC 5 SOC 6 SOC 7 SOC 8 SOC 9

29

Source: Scottish Annual Business Statistics, 2013.

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

£50,000

£55,000

£60,000

£65,000

£70,000

Productivity/GVA per capita (SOC 07) - Dundee 2013

GVA per capita

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

£50,000

£55,000

£60,000

£65,000

£70,000

GVA & Labour Cost per capita (SOC 07) - Dundee 2013

GVA per capita

Labour cost per capita

30


Large enterprise with more then 250 employees, account for 53.4 per cent of all

employment and 62.0 per cent of total turnover in Dundee.

Small enterprise, with total employees numbering 49 and less, account for 84.7 per cent of

the total number of enterprises and approximately 22.7 per cent of total turnover.

31.5%

15.1%

53.4%

22.7%

14.3%

62.0%

84.7%

4.6%

10.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Small (0-49 employees) Medium (50-249 employees) Large (Large 250+ employees)

Enterprise, Employment & Turnover - Dundee City 2015

Enterprise Employment Turnover

31

Employment In September 2015, 63,400 people and 63.3 per cent of the Dundee City working age

population were in employment. The Scottish national average at this time was 73.1 per

cent and almost 10 per cent higher than the Dundee City employment rate.

The employment rate for males in Dundee City in September 2015 was 69.5 per cent and the

employment rate for females was 57.5 per cent. Of those in employment in Dundee City,

57.7 per cent were employees and 5.6 per cent were self-employed.

The employment rate for Dundee City reached a historic low in March 2014, with 59.2 per

cent of the working age population in employment. In September 2008, the employment

rate for Dundee City was 70.2 per cent, demonstrating the disproportional impact of the

economic recession across different regional labour markets.

Dundee City has had a historically lower headline employment rate than other Scottish local

authorities. This is in part accounted for by the larger economically inactive population,

proportionally larger number of benefit recipients, large population of younger persons and

large student population.

Given normal economic circumstances, Dundee has a smaller potential labour market than

the Scottish national average. The abnormal levels of economic inactivity now present in

Dundee City have contributed to a large fall in unemployment with only a modest increase

in employment. This suggests that rather than more Dundee City residents gaining

employment, more and more people are being excluded from the labour market.

32

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey.

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Employment Rate - Dundee & Scotland 2012-15

Dundee Scotland

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

Employment Rate by Sex - Dundee City 2012-15

Total Male Female

33

By September 2015, Dundee City had the lowest employment rate of any Scottish Local Authority area, at 63.3 per cent.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Employment Rates by Scottish Local Authority - September 2015

Scotland

34

The strength of the Dundee Labour Market has displayed modest recovery from 2014, after a period of decline from 2010.

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labour Market Strength - Dundee City 2005-2015

Aged 16-64 Employment Rate

35

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0D

ec

20

04

Mar

20

05

Jun

20

05

Sep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5

Mar

20

06

Jun

20

06

Sep

20

06

De

c 2

00

6

Mar

20

07

Jun

20

07

Sep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7

Mar

20

08

Jun

20

08

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

Resident Working Age Population Employees (%) - Scotland 2004-2015

Aberdeen City Dundee City Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City Scotland

36


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

Logintudinal Labour Market Performance - Dundee City 2004-2015

Economic Activity rate Population Aged 16-64 Employment rate Unemployment rate Economic Inactive rate

37


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

Employment Rates by Age Group: Dundee City - 2008-2015

Aged 16-19 Aged 20-24 Aged 25-34 Aged 35-49 Aged 50-64

38

Economic Activity


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Economic Activity Rates - Dundee City 2004-2014

Aged 16 to 64 Economically Active Economically Inactive

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Economic Inactivity Dundee City (2008=100) - 2008-16

Economic Inactivity Rate

39


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

student looking afterfamily/home

temporary sick long-term sick retired other

Economic Inactivity by Circumstance - Dundee City

Sep 2014 Sep 2015

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

Economically Inactive - Dundee & Scotland 2012-15


40

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, September 2015

In terms of proportions, Dundee City and the Dundee Region have lower employment and

lower economic activity rates than the Scottish national average.

31.0 of the Dundee City working age population in September 2015 were classed as economically inactive.

Dundee City had the lowest Economic Activity Rate of any Scottish Local Authority area in

September 2015, at 69.0 of the working population either employed or actively seeking work, compared to the Scottish national average of 77.8 per cent.

This is in part due to demographics; Dundee accounts for 2.8 per cent of the Scottish

population but 8.5 per cent of Scotland’s University Students attend university in Dundee. Dundee has approximately the same student population as Aberdeen but is a much smaller city.

Dundee has one of the highest proportions of those designating as looking after families and

long-term sick within the working age population of any Scottish local authority area. These groups are also classed as economically inactive.

Taken together, Dundee City has one of the smallest potential and most vulnerable labour

markets of any area in Scotland. The effect of this can distort employment figures in Dundee to look proportionally weaker than they are in comparison to other areas, which have different working age population compositions.

49.3% 51.2% 54.0%

14.0% 16.1%

19.0% 5.7%

5.6%

4.8%

31.0% 27.2% 22.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dundee City Dundee Region Scotland

Population Aged 16-64 by Labour Market Status - Sept 2015 Full-time Employment Part-time Employment Unemployment Economically Incative

41

By September 2015, Dundee had the lowest economically active working age population in all of Scotland, at 69.0 per cent.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Economic Activity Rates by Scottish Local Authority - September 2015

Scotland

42

90.00

92.00

94.00

96.00

98.00

100.00

102.00

104.00

106.00

108.00

110.00

Employment & Economic Activity (2008=100) - Dundee City 2008-15

Economically Activity Rate Employment Rate

43

Dundee has the highest economically inactive population of any Scottish Local Authority, at 31.0 per cent of the working age population.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

Economic Incativty Rates by Scottish Local Authority - September 2015

Scotland

44

Economically Inactivity by Reason – Dundee City September 2010-2015

Se

p-1

0

Se

p-1

5

%

ch

an

ge

inactive student 7,700 10,400 35.1%

inactive looking after family/home 3,400 6,400 88.2%

inactive temporary sick 600 1,100 83.3%

inactive long-term sick 6,200 6,500 4.8%

inactive discouraged 300 100 -66.7%

inactive retired 3,900 3,300 -15.4%

inactive other 1,100 2,300 109.1%

Total 23,200 30,100 29.7%


Between 2010 and 2015, the number of economically inactive students in Dundee increase

by 35 per cent, from approximately 7,700 to more than 10,400. Economically inactive

students represent approximately 10.5 per cent of the Dundee City working age population.

Between 2010 and 2015, the number of economically inactive residents of Dundee City

looking after family or home increased by 3,000 and approximately 980 per cent.

Between 2010 and 2015, there was an approximate increase of 30 per cent in the numbers

of Dundee City residence classed as economically inactive.

45

Unemployment

In September 2015, approximately 5,500 people in Dundee City were unemployed. The

number of those unemployed and actively seeking working within Dundee City had returned

to the approximate pre-recession rate by 2015.

Dundee City had one of the fastest declining unemployment rates of any area in Scotland; by

September 2015, the unemployment rate reached 8.3 per cent. Despite this, Dundee City

had the 4th highest unemployment rate of any Scottish Local Authority by September 2015.

This is in part due to the elastic nature of unemployment in areas of lower economic

performance.

The unemployment rate for Dundee City reached a historic high in March 2014, with

approximately 9,200 people and 13.8 per cent of the population aged 16-64 being

unemployed. At this time, Dundee had the highest level of unemployment in all of Scotland,

with headline unemployment more than twice the pre-recession rate by March 2014.

Within a time period in which both unemployment rates and Jobseekers allowance claimant

rates evidenced marked decline, the number of working age people in Dundee City

registered as economically inactive drastically increased.

It is likely that the real number of people in Dundee City that are unemployed, but do not

meet the ILO unemployment definition criteria, is substantially higher than the official rate

as this only estimates the visible level of unemployment. The true level of unemployment or

underutilised potential labour is likely substantially higher. Given local labour market

circumstances and Dundee’s disproportionately high levels of economic inactivity, actual

unemployment is very likely higher than the headline figure.

Long-term unemployment has been historically higher in Dundee City than the Scottish

national average. Between August 2012-13, the number of long-term JSA claimants in

Dundee City was approximately 2.0 per cent of the working age population, with the

comparable Scottish national average at approximately 1.1 per cent within the same period.

46

Unemployment rates for Dundee City reached a historic high between December 2013 and March 2014, with 9,200 people unemployed.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000Longitudinal Unemployment Rates by Sex - Dundee City 2005-2015

Unemployment rate Unemployment males Unemployment females

47

In September 2015, Dundee City had the fourth highest unemployment rate of all Scottish Local Authority areas (8.3 per cent).

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Unemployment Rates by Scottish Local Authority - September 2015

Scotland

48

Between December 2013 and September 2015, the unemployment rate for Dundee City declined from 13.8 per cent to 8.3 per cent.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

Longitudinal Unemployment Rates - Dundee City & Scotland 2005-2015


49

By September 2015, the Dundee City unemployment rate was 21 per cent higher than the 2008 rate. The unemployment rate declined by 88

percentage points between March 2014 and September 2015.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

Dundee City Unemployment Rate (2008=100) - 2008-15

Unemployment Rate

50

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey; ONS Jobseekers Allowance.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0D

ec

20

04

Mar

20

05

Jun

20

05

Sep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5

Mar

20

06

Jun

20

06

Sep

20

06

De

c 2

00

6

Mar

20

07

Jun

20

07

Sep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7

Mar

20

08

Jun

20

08

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

JSA, Unemployment & Economically Inactive Jobseekers - Dundee 2004-15

JSA Unemployment Economically Inactive Jobseekers

51

Source: ONS Jobseekers Allowance.

In 2016, the number of working age people in Dundee City receiving Jobseekers Allowance for more than 12 months was 0.92 per cent.

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

No

vem

be

r 2

00

4

Feb

ruar

y 2

00

5

May

20

05

Au

gust

20

05

No

vem

be

r 2

00

5

Feb

ruar

y 2

00

6

May

20

06

Au

gust

20

06

No

vem

be

r 2

00

6

Feb

ruar

y 2

00

7

May

20

07

Au

gust

20

07

No

vem

be

r 2

00

7

Feb

ruar

y 2

00

8

May

20

08

Au

gust

20

08

No

vem

be

r 2

00

8

Feb

ruar

y 2

00

9

May

20

09

Au

gust

20

09

No

vem

be

r 2

00

9

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

0

May

20

10

Au

gust

20

10

No

vem

be

r 2

01

0

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

1

May

20

11

Au

gust

20

11

No

vem

be

r 2

01

1

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

2

May

20

12

Au

gust

20

12

No

vem

be

r 2

01

2

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

3

May

20

13

Au

gust

20

13

No

vem

be

r 2

01

3

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

4

May

20

14

Au

gust

20

14

No

vem

be

r 2

01

4

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

5

May

20

15

Au

gust

20

15

No

vem

be

r 2

01

5

Feb

ruar

y 2

01

6

Long-term JSA Claimant Rates: Dundee City & Scotland 2004-2016


52

*Employment Deprivation calculated using unemployment rate (economically active) plus economically inactive who would like a job.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000D

ec

20

04

Mar

20

05

Jun

20

05

Sep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5

Mar

20

06

Jun

20

06

Sep

20

06

De

c 2

00

6

Mar

20

07

Jun

20

07

Sep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7

Mar

20

08

Jun

20

08

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

Employment Deprivation - Dundee City 2004-2015 Unemployment rate Economically inactive who want a job Employment Deprived

53


0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

12.00%

13.00%

14.00%

15.00%

16.00%

17.00%

18.00%

19.00%

20.00%D

ec

20

04

Mar

20

05

Jun

20

05

Sep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5

Mar

20

06

Jun

20

06

Sep

20

06

De

c 2

00

6

Mar

20

07

Jun

20

07

Sep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7

Mar

20

08

Jun

20

08

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

Employment Deprivation - Dundee City & Scotland 2004-2015 (ILO Unemployment & Economically Incative Wanting Employment - Working Population Percentage)


54

Out of Work Benefits

Source: ONS Claimant Count.

3.2

2.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Jan

20

13

Ap

r 2

01

3

Jul 2

01

3

Oct

20

13

Jan

20

14

Ap

r 2

01

4

Jul 2

01

4

Oct

20

14

Jan

20

15

Ap

r 2

01

5

Jul 2

01

5

Oct

20

15

Jan

20

16

Claimant Count: Dundee & Scotland Jan 13- Feb 16


4.8

1.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Jan

20

13

Ap

r 2

01

3

Jul 2

01

3

Oct

20

13

Jan

20

14

Ap

r 2

01

4

Jul 2

01

4

Oct

20

14

Jan

20

15

Ap

r 2

01

5

Jul 2

01

5

Oct

20

15

Jan

20

16

Claimant Count by Gender: Dundee City Jan 13- Feb 16

Total Male Female

55

Claimants of Jobseekers Allowance January 2015 – January 2016

Males Rate Females Rate Total Rate

January 2015

Dundee City 2,522 5.2 1,009 2.0 3,531 3.6

Scotland 58,582 3.4 25,722 1.5 84,304 2.4

January 2016

Dundee City 2,097 4.4 766 1.5 2,863 2.9

Scotland 42,946 2.5 19,969 1.1 62,915 1.8 Source: ONS Jobseeker’s Allowance with rates and proportions, January 2016

Long-term Claimants of Jobseekers Allowance January 2015 – January 2016


January 2015

Dundee City 955 2.0 340 0.6 1,335 1.3

Scotland 16,550 1.0 6,885 0.4 23,440 0.7

January 2016

Dundee City 785 1.6 260 0.5 1,055 1.0

Scotland 13,180 0.8 5,320 0.3 18,500 0.5 Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count. Data rounded to nearest 5 (disclosure control). *Long-term classification

of a period exceeding 12 months (25 and over) and exceeding 6 months (24 and under).

Youth Claimants of Jobseekers Allowance January 2015 – January 2016


January 2015

Dundee City 560 4.9 250 2.0 810 3.4

Scotland 13,210 4.2 5,860 1.9 19,070 3.1

January 2016

Dundee City 410 3.6 180 1.5 595 2.5

Scotland 7,250 2.3 3,360 1.1 10,610 1.7 Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count. Data rounded to nearest 5 (disclosure control).

56

The areas of Dundee with the largest numbers of Claimants (JSA/UC) in February 2016 were Stobswell (225), Lochee (215) and The Glens (185).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Claimant Count by 2011 Intermediate Zone: Dundee City - February 2016

57



0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Economic Inactivity & JSA Claimants - Dundee City 2004-14

economically inactive jsa claimants

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

18-24 18-24, 6months +

18-24, 12months +

25 and over,1 year +

25 and over,2 years +

50 and over,6 months +

Total 12months +

Total 6months +

JSA Claimants by Age & Duration - Dundee City

December 2014 December 2015

58

Source: ONS Claimant Count.


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Claimant Count by Sex - Dundee City 2013-15

Total Male Female

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

Longitudinal Dundee JSA Claimants by Age & Duration

Aged 24 and under Aged 25+, 2 years + Aged 50+, 6 months + 12 months +

59

In February 2016, Dundee City had the third highest Claimant Count of all Scottish Local Authority areas, at 2.9 per cent.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

JSA Claimant Rates by Scottish Local Authority - February 2016

Scotland

60

The number of Claimants of JSA/UC* for Dundee is still relatively high in comparison, but has declined substantially over a two year period.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

JSA Claimant Rates by Scottish Local Authority - Feb 2014-Feb 2016

Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016

61

The gender gap between male and female JSA claimants has reached its lowest level since the 2008 recession.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Jobseekers Allowance Claimants by Gender - Dundee City 2008-2015

Male Female Total

62

The age profile of JSA Claimants has substantially changed, with claimants aged 16-24 and aged 50 plus accounting for a far larger proportion.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

JSA Claimant Count by Age Group - Dundee City 2013-2016

Aged 16-24 Aged 25-34 Aged 35-49 Aged 50+

63

JSA Claimants and Unemployment rates for Dundee have not followed an accepted causal relationship, demonstrating substantial departures.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0D

ec

20

04

Mar

20

05

Jun

20

05

Sep

20

05

De

c 2

00

5

Mar

20

06

Jun

20

06

Sep

20

06

De

c 2

00

6

Mar

20

07

Jun

20

07

Sep

20

07

De

c 2

00

7

Mar

20

08

Jun

20

08

Sep

20

08

De

c 2

00

8

Mar

20

09

Jun

20

09

Sep

20

09

De

c 2

00

9

Mar

20

10

Jun

20

10

Sep

20

10

De

c 2

01

0

Mar

20

11

Jun

20

11

Sep

20

11

De

c 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Jun

20

12

Sep

20

12

De

c 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Jun

20

13

Sep

20

13

De

c 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Jun

20

14

Sep

20

14

De

c 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Jun

20

15

Sep

20

15

JSA Claimants & Unemployment - Dundee City 2004-2015

JSA Unemployment

64

Between June and August 2013, there were 3,017 JSA sanctions issued to claimants (*JSA sanctions expressed as quarterly totals).

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

Unemployment, JSA Claimants & JSA Sanctions - Dundee City 2012-15

JSA Sanctions JSA Claimants Unemployment

66

Dundee City Benefits Recipients by Statistical Group (Number & Rate) – November 2015

2003 ward Total Claimants Job Seekers ESA & IB Lone Parents Carers Disabled Aged 16-24

number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate

Pitkerro 1,265 36.1 180 5.1 680 19.4 125 3.6 165 4.7 80 2.3 180 5.1

Longhaugh 955 25.8 150 4.1 470 12.7 100 2.7 140 3.8 70 1.9 135 3.6

Camperdown 945 28.8 155 4.7 520 15.8 95 2.9 100 3.0 55 1.7 135 4.1

Douglas 920 27.6 170 5.1 470 14.1 105 3.1 80 2.4 60 1.8 125 3.7

Stobswell 905 29.9 180 6.0 545 18.0 45 1.5 70 2.3 40 1.3 110 3.6

East Port 830 25.0 180 5.4 475 14.3 55 1.7 65 2.0 40 1.2 115 3.5

Balgowan 760 21.8 125 3.6 365 10.5 75 2.1 110 3.2 65 1.9 115 3.3

Hilltown 740 19.9 170 4.6 415 11.2 45 1.2 45 1.2 35 0.9 125 3.4

Lochee West 740 27.9 165 6.2 390 14.7 45 1.7 70 2.6 45 1.7 120 4.5

Bowbridge 725 24.2 135 4.5 430 14.3 45 1.5 55 1.8 40 1.3 75 2.5

Law 705 19.5 115 3.2 445 12.3 40 1.1 40 1.1 40 1.1 95 2.6

Fairmuir 700 24.9 110 3.9 440 15.6 40 1.4 45 1.6 40 1.4 70 2.5

Lochee East 615 22.7 110 4.1 365 13.5 30 1.1 55 2.0 40 1.5 70 2.6

Brackens 605 16.7 90 2.5 320 8.8 70 1.9 65 1.8 40 1.1 85 2.3

Ardler 590 26.6 100 4.5 325 14.6 45 2.0 75 3.4 35 1.6 70 3.2

Ninewells 560 16.9 105 3.2 325 9.8 60 1.8 35 1.1 25 0.8 90 2.7

Whitfield 515 21.6 85 3.6 265 11.1 45 1.9 60 2.5 45 1.9 70 2.9

Tay Bridges 505 9.4 120 2.2 315 5.8 20 0.4 20 0.4 20 0.4 75 1.4

Craigiebank 485 20.6 75 3.2 270 11.5 35 1.5 60 2.5 30 1.3 65 2.8

Logie 480 15.4 95 3.1 290 9.3 15 0.5 40 1.3 25 0.8 55 1.8

Claverhouse 475 15.0 70 2.2 255 8.0 25 0.8 70 2.2 40 1.3 65 2.0

Baxter Park 470 14.4 120 3.7 230 7.0 25 0.8 30 0.9 40 1.2 60 1.8

Balgay 450 14.3 65 2.1 275 8.7 35 1.1 35 1.1 25 0.8 50 1.6

Strathmartine 405 13.1 55 1.8 205 6.6 20 0.6 70 2.3 40 1.3 55 1.8

Broughty Ferry 295 9.5 35 1.1 185 6.0 10 0.3 30 1.0 20 0.6 30 1.0

Balgillo 265 6.4 25 0.6 140 3.4 10 0.2 40 1.0 30 0.7 30 0.7

Barnhill 245 8.1 30 1.0 155 5.1 10 0.3 20 0.7 25 0.8 25 0.8

Riverside 195 5.3 15 0.4 105 2.8 5 0.1 30 0.8 30 0.8 25 0.7

West Ferry 185 6.4 20 0.7 100 3.5 0 0.0 25 0.9 35 1.2 15 0.5

Dundee City 17,530 18.6 3,050 3.2 9,770 10.4 1,275 1.4 1,745 1.9 1,155 1.2 2,335 2.5

Source: ONS DWP Benefits Data, November 2015.

67

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Refe

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Refe

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Ad

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Rate

Oct-12 5,515 492 8.9% 252 4.6%

Nov-12 5,401 483 8.9% 236 4.4%

Dec-12 5,294 548 10.4% 200 3.8%

Jan-13 5,604 833 14.9% 273 4.9%

Feb-13 5,732 614 10.7% 194 3.4%

Mar-13 5,667 656 11.6% 240 4.2%

Apr-13 5,572 663 11.9% 244 4.4%

May-13 5,375 780 14.5% 307 5.7%

Jun-13 5,635 1156 20.5% 433 7.7%

Jul-13 5,490 1009 18.4% 426 7.8%

Aug-13 5,346 879 16.4% 378 7.1%

Sep-13 4,738 1181 24.9% 438 9.2%

Oct-13 4,496 906 20.2% 403 9.0%

Nov-13 4,318 682 15.8% 249 5.8%

Dec-13 4,385 537 12.2% 182 4.2%

Jan-14 4,598 661 14.4% 254 5.5%

Feb-14 4,654 652 14.0% 261 5.6%

Mar-14 4,514 597 13.2% 258 5.7%

Apr-14 4,328 516 11.9% 251 5.8%

May-14 4,179 618 14.8% 272 6.5%

Jun-14 4,314 581 13.5% 304 7.0%

Jul-14 4,187 413 9.9% 219 5.2%

Aug-14 4,058 372 9.2% 177 4.4%

Sep-14 3,671 388 10.6% 159 4.3%

Oct-14 3,504 343 9.8% 170 4.9%

Nov-14 3,375 414 12.3% 178 5.3%

Dec-14 3,397 317 9.3% 119 3.5%

Jan-15 3,531 259 7.3% 155 4.4%

Feb-15 3,644 192 5.3% 109 3.0%

Mar-15 3,474 204 5.9% 113 3.3%

Apr-15 3,462 178 5.1% 97 2.8%

May-15 3,397 141 4.2% 81 2.4%

Jun-15 3,467 204 5.9% 100 2.9%

Jul-15 3,543 207 5.8% 72 2.0%

Aug-15 3,476 139 4.0% 58 1.7%

Sep-15 3,050 199 6.5% 102 3.3%

Source: DWP Stat-Xplore; ONS Jobseekers Allowance.

Under the post-2012 JSA Sanction Regime, Dundee City JSA Claimants have experienced

sanction rates substantially higher than other areas in Scotland.

By September 2013, when unemployment in the city was at a historic high, 24.9 per cent of

JSA claimants received a JSA sanction referral, with 9.2 per cent, 440 of 4,700 claimants

receiving an adverse (upheld) sanction decision.

68

Source: The Scottish Government: NEET Statistics.

The number of people aged 16-19 Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) in Dundee City fell by 2.9 per cent between 2012 and 2014, from 10.6 per cent in 2012 to 7.9 per cent in 2014. The Scottish National average NEET rate fell by 2.8 per cent during the same period, from 9.2 per cent in 2012 to 6.4 per cent in 2014.

The NEET Rate for Dundee City in 2014 declined to the lowest point in the 10 year period as of 2014, having recovered to levels preceeding the global economic recession and economic auesterity.

In 2014, Dundee City had the seventh highest NEET Rate of all 32 Scottish Local Authority

areas, with West Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire, North Lanarkshire, Glasgow City,

South Lanarkshire and East Ayrshire having higher rates.

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Longitudinal NEET Rates: Dundee City 2004-2014 Dundee City Scotland

69

Source: The Scottish Government ‘Evaluation of Measurement Options for Those Aged 16-19 Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET).

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

NEET Rates by Scottish Local Authority 2014

Scotland

70

Income and Earnings

Median Gross Annual Pay (Full-Time employees) – 2012-2015

2015 2012 % change

Dundee City £24,090 £21,913 9.93

Aberdeen City £30,204 £28,342 6.57

Edinburgh, City of £30,033 £28,482 5.45

Glasgow City £27,417 £24,443 12.17

Scotland £27,732 £25,907 7.04

Median Gross Weekly Pay (all employees) – 2014-2015

2015 2014 % change

Dundee City £380.00 £390.20 -2.61

Aberdeen City £479.10 £467.70 2.44

Edinburgh, City of £459.80 £443.60 3.65

Glasgow City £412.80 £385.30 4.43

Scotland £425.10 £413.70 2.76

Income Distribution FTE Per Annum – Dundee City & Scotland 2015

Dundee City (£) Scotland (£) Proportion (%)

10th Percentile 14,512 15,437 6.4

20th Percentile 17,420 18,603 6.8

30th Percentile 19,440 21,369 9.9

40th Percentile 21,574 24,343 12.8

Median 24,090 27,732 15.1

60th Percentile 27,665 31,364 13.4

70th Percentile 31,725 35,229 11.0

80th Percentile 35,833 40,781 13.8

90th Percentile 41,760* 51,370 23.0 Source: ONS annual survey of hours and earnings 2015 (*estimate).

71

In 2015, median gross weekly pay for the resident workers of Dundee City for full-time

employees was £409.70. The Scottish national average median gross weekly pay for full-

time employees was more than £60 higher, at £474.00. This is a reflection of the structure

of sector employment in Dundee in relation to workers who live with Dundee, which had

substantially less full-time employment within the highest paying and gross value adding

sectors in 2015, such as energy and financial services.

Full-time gross median pay for females in Dundee was £80 less per week than the Scottish

national average, with weekly pay for males in Dundee being approximately £34 less per

week than the national average.

Gross annual income for Dundee City in 2015 was £24,090 for full-time employees,

compared to the Scottish national average £27,732 per annum.

Full-time employees in Dundee had a larger proportional share of gross annual income at

the lower end of earnings, whilst higher earning groups had a substantially less proportional

share compared to the Scottish national average.

Wages for those living in Dundee City were substantially lower than the national average

and for those working but not living in Dundee.

£567.20

£560.80

£526.00

£471.20

£474.00

£409.70

£527.70

£527.00

£463.30

£300.00 £350.00 £400.00 £450.00 £500.00 £550.00 £600.00

United Kingdom

Scotland

Dundee City

Median Gross Weekly Pay (FTE) 2015

Total Female Male

72

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earning 2015.

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earning 2015.

£14,512

£17,420 £19,440

£21,574 £24,090

£27,665

£31,725

£35,833

£41,760

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

Gross Annual Income FTE - Dundee City 2015

£15,437 £18,603

£21,369 £24,343

£27,732

£31,364

£35,229

£40,781

£51,370

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

£50,000

£55,000

Gross Annual Income FTE - Scotland 2015

73

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2015.

Gross Annual Earnings (All Employees) – Dundee City & Scotland 2015

Upper Tail Income Ratio (50th/90th Percentile)

Ratio 90th Percentile 50th Percentile

Dundee City 0.55 £41,460 £22,631

Scotland 0.49 £45,884 £22,476

Lower Tail Income Ratio (10th/50th Percentile)


Dundee City 0.38 £22,631 £8,779

Scotland 0.33 £22,476 £7,573

Total Income Distribution Ration (10th/90th Percentile)


Dundee City 0.21 £41,460 £8,779

Scotland 0.17 £45,884 £7,573 Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings 2015

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

£50,000

10percentile

20percentile

30percentile

40percentile

Median 60percentile

70percentile

80percentile

90percentile

Gross Anual Earning (All Employees) - Dundee & Scotland 2015


74

Median Gross Annual Pay for full time employees who lived in Dundee City was the second lowest of any Scottish local authority in 2015.

£0

£2,000

£4,000

£6,000

£8,000

£10,000

£12,000

£14,000

£16,000

£18,000

£20,000

£22,000

£24,000

£26,000

£28,000

£30,000

£32,000

£34,000

£36,000

Median Gross Annual Pay (FTE) by Scottish Local Authority 2015

Scotland

75

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2015; *Model-based estimate used for Dundee City FTE earnings at 90th percentile

24,090

27,732

£0

£2,500

£5,000

£7,500

£10,000

£12,500

£15,000

£17,500

£20,000

£22,500

£25,000

£27,500

£30,000

£32,500

£35,000

£37,500

£40,000

£42,500

£45,000

£47,500

£50,000

£52,500

£55,000

10 percentile 20 percentile 30 percentile 40 percentile Median 60 percentile 70 percentile 80 percentile 90 percentile

Gross Annual Earning (10th-90th Percentile/FTE) - Dundee & Scotland 2015


76

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2015

4.68%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

Change (%) in Gross Median (FTE) Annual Earnings - Scotland 2010-2015

Scotland

77

Property and Housing

Quarterly Residential Property Prices (Mean) – Dundee City &

Scotland, December 2015

Oct – Dec 2015

Oct – Dec 2014

Annual % change

Jul – Sep 2015

Quarterly % change

Dundee City

£134,945 £126,529 6.7 £131,043 3.0

Aberdeen City

£214,799 £218,804 -1.8 £216,656 -0.9

Edinburgh, City of

£233,255 £226,022 3.2 £228,538 2.1

Glasgow City

£140,837 £129,733 8.6 £140,534 0.2

Scotland £167,734 £165,138 1.6 £169,411 -1.0

Quarterly Residential Property Sales (Volume) – Dundee City & Scotland, December 2015

Oct – Dec

2015 Oct – Dec 2014

Annual % change

Jul – Sep 2015

Quarterly % change

Dundee City

710 576 23.3 646 9.9

Aberdeen City

1,274 1,447 -12.0 1,414 -9.9

Edinburgh, City of

3,532 2,909 21.4 3,464 2.0

Glasgow City

3,337 2,789 19.6 3,236 3.1

Scotland 28,779 25,130 14.5 27,491 4.7 Source: Registers of Scotland: Quarterly House Prices Report

78

Source: Registers of Scotland: Quarterly House Prices Report

£100,000

£110,000

£120,000

£130,000

£140,000

£150,000

£160,000

£170,000

£180,000

£190,000

£200,000

£210,000

£220,000

£230,000

£240,000

£250,000

£260,000

£270,000

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Average Residential Property Prices - Scotland 2008-2015

Aberdeen City Dundee City Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City Scotland

79

In December 2015, Dundee had the fifth highest annual increase of residential property prices in Scotland, increasing by 6.7 %.

-14-13-12-11-10

-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

1011121314

Average Residential Propoerty Prices (% Change) - Scotland Dec 2014-15

Scotland

80

Appendix 1: Labour Market Definitions Employment Rate – The number of people of working age currently either employed or self-employed. The headline employment rate is a measure of the percentage of people aged 16 to 64 who are employed as a proportion of the total population of that age group. Unemployment – Unemployment is measured by the International Labour Organisation’s Unemployment indicator. It is an internationally accepted measure of unemployment that assesses the number of jobless people who want to work, are available to work and are actively seeking employment. The Office for National Statistics measures this using the Annual Population Survey, sampling those without a job who have been actively seeking work in the past 4 weeks and are available or waiting to start work in the next 2 weeks. Economically Active – Persons aged 16 plus either employed, self-employed or unemployed. The economic activity rate at national and sub-national level is an expression of the working age population aged 16 to 64 who are either employed, self-employed or unemployed. Economically Inactive – Economically inactive people represent those of a working age 16-64 who are not employed and have not actively been seeking work in accordance with those classed as unemployed. This group includes students, those with illness and people looking after family. Claimant Count – The Claimant Count is a new figure, designated an experimental statistic by the Office for National Statistics. It represents the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit who are out of work. The Claimant Count replaces the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance as the headline indicator of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. The Claimant Count no longer holds the designation of a national statistic. Jobseekers Allowance – The principle out-of-work benefit for unemployed people actively seeking work. The introduction of Universal Credit means that this no longer accounts for the number of people principally claiming unemployment related benefits. Gross Value Added (GVA) – the value added by any unit engaged in production above the inputs of production. This represents the total level of productive output for any given industry sector.

81

Appendix 2: Sources Department for Work and Pensions. Stat-Xplore, 2015. Available from: https://stat-

xplore.dwp.gov.uk/

Office for National Statistices. Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Available from:

https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

Office for National Statistices. Annual Population Survey. Available from:


Office for National Statistices. Claimant Count. Available from: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

Office for National Statistices. DWP Benefits. Available from: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

Office for National Statistices. Guide to Labour Market Statistics, 2012. Available from:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/

Registers of Scoltand. Quarterly House Prices. Available from: https://www.ros.gov.uk/

National Records of Scotland. Scotland’s Census 2011. Available from:

http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/

The Scottish Government. Evaluation of Measurement Options for Those Aged 16-19 Not in

Employment, Education or Training (NEET). Available from: www.gov.scot

The Scottish Government. Businesses in Scotland, 2010-2015. Available from: www.gov.scot

The Scottish Government. Scottish Annual Business Statistics, 2009-2013. Available from:

www.gov.scot

The Scottish Government. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2012. Available from:

www.gov.scot

https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/

https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/





https://www.ons.gov.uk/

https://www.ros.gov.uk/

http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/

http://www.gov.scot/




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