du global energy overview 5 6 09

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GLOBAL ENERGY GLOBAL ENERGY OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

WHY WE NEED TO SET A WHY WE NEED TO SET A COMPREHENSIVECOMPREHENSIVE

VISION & STRETCH GOALS FOR USA VISION & STRETCH GOALS FOR USA TO REGAIN GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN SEITO REGAIN GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN SEI

(SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES)(SUSTAINABLE ENERGY INITIATIVES)

BY PROBIR GHOSH BY PROBIR GHOSH PRESIDENT & CEO VSNIPRESIDENT & CEO VSNI

A STRATEGIC THINK TANK & ADVISORY SERVICES FIRMA STRATEGIC THINK TANK & ADVISORY SERVICES FIRMWWW.VSNICORP.COMWWW.VSNICORP.COM

PART I: Global Energy OverviewWelcome & Introductions

Global Energy Usage Perspective: Cause & Effects Escalating Energy Costs & Security Caused by Growth

Climate Change from Fossil Fuel based Energy

Global Overview of Sustainable Energy Initiatives

This presentation was gleaned from many months of intensive research from hundreds of databases, articles, journals and books, as well as discussion and debates around world energy dynamics, renewable energy and global climate change with several thought leaders in the industry. This is a work in progress and will continually get updated as more inputs come in from everyone involved. This presentation is the property of VSNI and express written permission is required before any part of the presentation is used for commercial benefits.

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PART II: Enabling SEI Global Leadership for USA invVEST Purpose & Strategy Overview

invVEST specific initiatives Inter actions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up.

Developed Countries vs. Developing Countries Population & GDP Growth Profile

Economies need to grow consistently to avoid Recession

USA :06 pop. 307M

India: 06 pop. 1,100M

China: 06 pop. 1,280M

Japan06 pop. 127M

3rd in 1990 to 3rd in 2030

2000 GDP: $ 9.8T2030GDP: $20.8T-2-4% growth

2nd in 1990 to 1st in 2030

2000 GDP: $0.5T2030GDP: $ 4.9T6- 9% growth

8 -12% growth 2000 GDP: $1.1T2030GDP: $ 14.3T

1st in 1990 to 2nd in 2030

9th in 1990 to 15th in 2030

2000 GDP: $4.2T2030GDP: $ 5.8T

OECD* Europe:06 pop. 400M

1990 to 2030 practically flat

2000 GDP: $11T2030GDP: $20T-1-3% growth

Adapted from IMF & Goldman Sachs data

Population & Economic GrowthPopulation & Economic Growth specially from China will CAUSE…..specially from China will CAUSE…..India while projected to have the largest population in the world will have a much smaller GDP compared to China in 2030.

China will be 70% of US GDP by 2030China will be 70% of US GDP by 2030 without considering without considering PPP…PPP…With PPP China will exceed US GDPWith PPP China will exceed US GDP

3*OECD abbr. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Brazil

Russia

A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTOECD Europe & USA Energy Usage Overview

USA‘06 pop. 307M 3rd in 1990 to 3rd in 2030

Quad

rillio

n Bt

u

Steady Economic Growth in USA & OECD Europe CAUSES…

……increased demand for Energy… adapted from EIA databases

OECD:06 pop. 400M1990 to 2030 practically flat

2000 GDP: $11T2030GDP: $16T

While 23 countries under OECD Europe have higher population & GDP than USA,it consumes 25% less energy & creates40% more energy from renewables compared to USA & the gap has been increasingIssue # 1:USA Consumes 54% more energy/capita than OECD Europe while having the same GDP/Capita Profile4

19902010

2030

A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTImplications of rapid growth in developing countries

China will consume more energy than USA by 2020& by 2030 will consume 30% more energy than USAJockeying for limited fossil fuel resources increases exponentially

USA‘06 pop. 307M ‘06 pop. 1,280M

CHINA 3rd in 1990 to 3rd in 2030

1st in 1990 to 2nd in 2030

Quad

rillio

n Bt

u

CAUSES

Population & High Economic Growth in China and other developing countries CAUSES…

……Rapid Growth in Energy Consumption… adapted from EIA databases

India is a non player as far as current energy generation trends and pollution it causes globally.

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19902010

2030

FOSSIL OIL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVES

Proven Fossil Oil Reserves: Quadrillion BtuWorld 100% 7,719 Saudi Arabia 20.03% 1,546 Canada 13.41% 1,035 Iran 10.39% 802 Iraq 8.64% 667 Kuwait 7.81% 603 Emirates 7.34% 567 Venezuela 6.54% 505 Russia 4.51% 348 Nigeria 2.72% 210 USA 1.57% 121 China 1.20% 93

MidEast 59.40% 4,585 Venezuela 6.54% 505 Russia 4.51% 348 Nigeria 2.72% 210

73.17% 5,648

Dominant use of Oil:• Transportation 70 - 80%• Industrial Process Heating

While Oil pollutes less than Coal, the

sheer volume of usage/year, 170Qbtu

vs. 130Qbtu for coal, made it

the largest CO2 polluter until 2007

Middle-East, Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria control almost 75% of proven reserves

USA Energy Security & Prosperity Issues

6

FOSSIL OIL STATUS QUOLimited Resources will Escalate Price and Energy

Security Issues Exponentially

Mid-East Oil

Russia

Canada

Qbtu 2007 2030USA 39 45

Qbtu 2007 2030China 15 48

As per IEA:The world has to invest $30 Trillion by 2030 to tap new oilfields as current ones dwindle to meet the increased demand.

INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIMITED RESOURCES OF FOSSIL OILWILL ESCALATE PRICES AND INCREASE ENERGY SECURITY ISSUES EXPONENTIALLY

Intake figures are in Quadrillion BtuNumber of years if current oil consumptionProjections by EIA are followed

Black Arrows are reliable sources to USARed Arrows are not so reliable sources to USAUSA prosperity will hit a wall every-time economy heats upEconomic volatility & confrontations will escalate even more.

NigeriaVenezuela

Wall Street Article Nov 14th 2008

World: Years of Oil leftYear intake No new 100% new

2007 170 45 91 2030 229 27 54

Without imports US runs out of oil rapidly

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FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE

Proven Natural Gas Reserves: Quadrillion BtuWorld 100% 6,316 Russia 25.11% 1,586 Iran 15.66% 989 Qatar 14.31% 904 Saudi Arabia 4.08% 258 Emirates 3.60% 227 USA 3.34% 211

Dominant use of Natural Gas:

• Building Heating

• Electricity Peak Loads

• Industrial Process Heating

• Transportation

Compared to Coal & Oil, Natural Gas is

the cleanest burning fossil fuel

Russia controls 25% of proven reserves Iran & Qatar, 30% of proven reserves

Energy Security & Prosperity Dependencies

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FOSSIL GAS GLOBAL STATUS QUOBridge Fuel to SEI?

Russia Europe High dependence

Iran &Iran & QatarQatar

US* self sufficient in Natural Gas Reserves??Myth or Reality?

Qbtu 2007 2030USA 24 35

Qbtu 2007 2030China 2.2 15

While US may not run out of natural gas in the short term(100 years?)Russia has a strangle-hold on Europe gas supply…and will increasingly manipulate to control. Iran & Qatar will be wooed by rest of the worldeven if they do not agree with their ideologies.

World: Years of Natural Gas leftYear intake Proven Total2007 103 61 184 2030 165 34 102

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FOSSIL COAL GLOBAL ENERGY RESERVE

Proven Coal Reserves: Quadrillion BtuWorld 100% 25,653 USA 27.00% 6,926 Russia 17.30% 4,438 China 12.60% 3,232 India 10.20% 2,617 Australia 8.60% 2,206 South Africa 5.40% 1,385

Dominant use of Coal:• Power Generation• Steel Production• Industrial Process Heating

Coal is the dirtiest burning fuel among the three fossil fuelsHighest CO2, NOx and SOx emissions + toxic particulate emissions especially among older generation plants, But has lowest cost of energy.

USA, Russia, China & India have good Coal ReservesCO2 emission and pollution issues are key concerns

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FOSSIL COAL STATUS QUOGHG FROM COAL BASED POWER PLANTS IN CHINA ARE MAJOR CONECERNS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

World: Years of Coal leftYear intake No new 100% new2007 130 197 355 2030 203 111 199

Qbtu 2007 2030USA 23 34 Qbtu 2007 2030

China 52 120US has sufficient coalreserves for 200+ yearsThe issue is cleaner energy

70% of China’s energy comes from Coal, the only fossil fuel China can tap cheaply internally. At the projected rate of consumption, China may run out of coal in less than 50 years.Very soon China will have to import Coal too.China is aggressively setting up its footprint in South Africa and Australia to tap its resources.

On a given day in 2008, 25% of pollution in LA comes from China

The world’s coal energy reserves are two times more than oil and gas reserves combined. USA needs to lead the world in finding innovative solutions to find clean coal technologies as the owner of world’s largest coal reserves .

Japan faces an exponential pollutionISSUES from China compared to USA

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A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTImplications of Key Dynamics Shaping

Energy & Climate Tsunami

Energy Consumption in Quadrillion BtuChina will consume more energy than USA by 2030

China exceeded USA in total CO2 emissions by 2008

and will emit double of USA by 2030GLOBALLY, GHG emissions

will double by 2030From 1990 levels

CO2 Emissions Million tons/yr1990 2010 2030

USA 4,989 6,011 6,851China 2,241 6,898 12,007OECD Europe 4,101 4,512 4,834World 21,226 28,051 42,325

QBtu

CAUSE

SOURCES OF ENERGY EFFECT

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A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTImplications of Key Dynamics Shaping

Energy & Climate Tsunami

Energy Consumption in Quadrillion BtuChina will consume more energy than USA by 2030

‘06 pop. 307M ‘06 pop. 1,280M 3rd in 1990 to 3rd in 2030

1st in 1990 to 2nd in 2030

The Debate: per capita or absolute

On per Capita Basis:USA emitted 5 times more CO2 than China in 2006and will STILL emit twice as much in 2030UNLESS WE CHANGE THE WAY WE GENERATE ENERGY

CO2 Emissions Million tons/yr1990 2010 2030

USA 4,989 6,011 6,851China 2,241 6,898 12,007OECD Europe 4,101 4,512 4,834World 21,226 28,051 42,325

QBtu

CAUSE

EFFECTPer Capita Data

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Climate Change: Our Kids Survival at Stake1950 2006 2030 2050

CO2 PPM 280 380 500? 800?

The “FAT TAIL”

by 2050- 2100 at the current trend rate of greenhouse gas release: There is a 99% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit There is a 50% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 5.5 degrees Celsius or 10 degrees FahrenheitThe world will see severe environmental impact that may be irrevocable There is a 10% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 10+ degrees Celsius or 18 degrees FahrenheitHigh likelyhood of Environmental Calamity impact that will be irrevocable

For a more complete presentation please refer to “Carbon Dioxide: What is Earth’s Point of No Return?”Alexander E. MacDonald, Director, NOAA ESRLSee VSNI website: Data& Links & NOAA website for more .

A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTWhat is the Take Away from the last Few Slides?

Climate change is an EFFECTThe way we use our energy is the CAUSE.

Can we change the way we use our energy to create avibrant economic growth engine AND cure climate change?

Our future generation is depending on us.

You treat the cause to change the effectYou treat the cause to change the effect

We need a National Comprehensive Vision and Deployment Strategy.We need stretch goals to overcome our severe Economic & Environmental

crisis.

Stretch goals will take people out of their comfort zone, but has a deeply researched deployable strategy designed to overcome crisis of gigantic proportions….

Competing for the Future: Hamel & Prahalad

A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOTWhat is the Take Away from the last Few Slides?

Because of the policies of the past, USA does not havea comprehensive Energy Vision & Deployment Strategy

that realistically tackle the looming EnvironmentDisaster, while reviving the Economy

We cannot change the past, but we can certainly control our destiny, even at this late hour. We just need resolve as a nation to take on stretch

goals.To start the process we adapted the model from the German Advisory Council for Global Change, who seem to have one of the most aggressive vision for a comprehensive energy initiative to tackle climate change.

WE NEED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TOWARDS CLEAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY. WHERE IS USA SEI COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?

Oil

Wind

Hydropower

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

BiomassSolar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants

Solar Thermal Heating

Other Renewables

Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive VisionBy the German Advisory Council for Global Change

Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year(equivalent)

Germans represent in exajoules

Energy from Fossil Fuels

Energy from Renewable

Fuels

17Note: Germans do not have any Fossil Fuel Resources

$20Trillion

$5 Trillion

$10 Trillion

Oil

Wind

Hydropower

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

BiomassSolar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants


Other Renewables

Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive VisionOverlaying the EIA trend-line on the GAC model and potential impact of GHG

Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year(equivalent)

Energy from Fossil Fuels

Energy from Renewable

Fuels

1950 CO2 280 ppm

1850 CO2 230 ppm?

2006 CO2 380 ppm

2030 CO2 500 ppm?

2050 CO2 800 ppm?

Current EIAUSA , China China &

IndiaFossil Fuel

ConsumptionTrend line

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Countries with Leading Renewable Energy Initiatives& 2007 USA Energy Consumption Profile

Hydropower: Norway98% of electric60% of total energy needs

Nuclear: France80% of electric39% of total energy needs

Wind & Solar: GermanyWind installed: 22.2 GWSolar PV Installed: 3.8GW>20% of Electric

Bio fuels: Brazil40% of Transportation fuel11% of total energy needs

Use of Energy USATransportation 8,510 28.64%

Residential 6,362 21.41%

Commercial 5,391 18.14%

Industrial 9,453 31.81%

Total 29,716

USA is a poor second on all Renewable Energy components when compared to OECD EuropeWhile still being the first by a huge margin for Fossil fuels.

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Offshore Wind Power: Denmark30% of electric needs

Energy Source USA 2007

Billion KWH/Yr 2007 % of TotalWorld Rank Trend

Fossil Oil 11,644.56 39.185% 1 Imports 70%+

Coal 6,691.07 22.516% 2 Exports 2%

Natural Gas 6,955.18 23.405% 2 Imports +2%

Nuclear 2,459.78 8.277% 1 low growth

Hydropower 839.43 2.825% 2 Flat

BioMass 775.08 2.608% 1? Growth

Wind 31.91 0.107% 2 H Growth

Solar 0.76 0.003% 4? V.H Growth

BioFuels 299.50 1.008% 2 H Growth

Biogas 2.67 0.009% 2? H Growth

Other Renewables 16.57 0.056% 2? Growth

Total Energy 29,716.51 100.000% 1

Electricity 11,874.82 39.96% 1

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Petroleum11,664 B kWh

Coal6,682 B kWh

Natural Gas 6,916 B kWh

Nuclear Energy 2462 B kWh

Renewable Energy 1,993 B kWh

Transportation8,499 B kWh

Industrial6,271 kWh

Residential & Commercial3,106 B kWh

Electric Power11,899 B kWh

USA Primary Energy Consumption by Source & Sector for 2007

SOURCESECTOR

CONSUMPTION

Adapted from EIA

51%10%30%

9%

100%

30% 34%34%

3%

91%<1%8%

2% 5%24%

70%96%

2%

2%51%

1%

9%

2%

2%

37%

75%

17%21%

9%

6%

9%

Total= 29,717 B kWh Total= 29,776 B kWh

OUTPUT

67% loss3,970B kWh

40%

21.1%

10.4%

28.5%

8.3%

6.7%

22.5%

23.3%

39.3%ICE 82.4% loss1,496B kWh

44%

Wind

Solar PhotovoltaicSolar Thermal

Understanding the CSF’s for Power Parity Index for SEIA perspective adapted from

Vinod Khosla’s presentation at NREL Forum Oct, 2008

Cost/W

Time

Coal

2020

6 Cents/KWh

12 Cents/KWh

30 Cents/KWh

2008

Relevance of ScaleRelevance CostRelevance of Technology Adoption Curve

Need to Subsidize

2040?21

PPI = 1

PPI < 1

PPI = 5

We will need radical new innovations to go beyond15% of Total Global Energy needsfrom Renewable Energy, and it needs to be sustainable:stand on its own legs and be economically compelling

We can get to 15% of Total Global Energy Needsfrom Renewable Energy, especially Solar and Windwith current technologiesby setting stretch goals & speed of deployment.* Need to work together

Eliminate Fossil Oil Use totally by 2020Eliminate Fossil Oil Use totally by 2020Al Gore: Repower America?Al Gore: Repower America?

Shai Agassi Project Better PlaceShai Agassi Project Better Place

Renewable Energy InitiativesPowerful Stretch Goals forRenewable Energy Choices

RE<C - Eric Schmidt, GoogleRenewable Energy costs less than Coal

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ENERGY LIFECYCLE BY SOURCE& GLOBAL CORE COMPETENCIES OVERVIEW

we will use solar PV as an example, scale 1 (Lowest) -10 (Highest)

InnovationFundamental R&D

Hype Cycle

GrowthCommercialization & Market CreationApplication R&DDFMS

MaturityLife extensionIncremental R&D

Declinecash cow

End of Life

Oil

WindWind

SolarSolarAlgaeAlgae

GasGas

Breakeven line without subsidies

Time

MktCap

NREL Involvement:

Basic Research Applied Research Development Demonstration Testing & Validation Commercialization

USA 2008

2012?

Innovation fundamental R&D

9 10

Application R&D

6 9

Manufacturing 3 7Market Size 3 10Install Services & jobs

3 8

Industry Growth

4 9

Non OECD Asia

2008 2012


2 5

Application R&D

5 6


1 5

Industry Growth

7 7

Subsidy & funding $ needed

USA has much larger Leadership gaps in other Renewable areas:eg: Batteries & Plug-in cars

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OECD Europe

2008 2012


7 7

Application R&D

8 7


8 8

Industry Growth

9 6

grams of CO2 eq. Emmission 20 year lifecycle

Fossil Oil 150

Coal 200

Natural Gas 100

Nuclear 4

Hydropower 10

BioMass 12

Wind 8

Solar 10

BioFuels 60 -120

Biogas 70-100

Other Renewables

Renewable Energy InitiativesPowerful Stretch Goals & Structured Approach to Economically Viable

Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices

CSF: Critical Success Factors

Energy Security, vanishing resource, High Pollutant

Highest Pollutant, High Risk Clean Coal Technology

Medium air Pollutant, Fractioning may contaminate earth

Nuclear Waste Issue?

Resource overtapped in most regions

improve cost effeciences, reliability

maturing effeciencies, storageInfinite resource, Cost follows Moore's curve? Storageexponential improvement in cost effeciences through scaling & GMOLimted recsources, can supply up to 2% of energy needs

2007 avg. Cost/KWH eq.

0.124$

0.045$

0.064$

0.035$

0.040$

0.110$

0.300$

0.200$

0.096$


0.247$

0.059$

0.072$

0.039$

0.048$

0.108$

0.150$

0.170$

0.108$



0.371$ 0.682$

0.072$ 0.094$

0.114$ 0.209$

0.054$ 0.070$

0.059$ 0.077$

0.092$ 0.100$

0.075$ 0.038$

??? ???

??? ???

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Colorado Renewable Energy InitiativesWhere are we? A State Level Perspective

Most Data : 2007 California Colorado Texas

Population in millions 36.6 4.9 23.9GDP per capita 41,571$ 41,042$ 37,187$ State GDP $ Billion 1,813$ 236$ 1,142$ Farmland million of acres 27.60 31.10 129.90

Total Energy Consumption Trillion Btu 8,360 1,426 11,558 Energy Consumption per Capita Million Btu 232 305 506

Carbon Dioxide metric tons 59,389,047 41,847,344 257,552,164 Sulfur Dioxide metric tons 26,537 58,569 558,350 Nitrogen Oxide metric tons 90,597 65,600 260,057

Total Electric Generation 2006 Data MWH 216,799 50,698 400,583

Geothermal 12,821 Solar 495 Wind 4,883 866 6,671 Wood/Woodwate 3,422 901 MSW Biogenic/Landfill gas 1,684 219 Other Biomass 585 31 44 Renewable Generation (without Hydro) 23,890 897 7,835 % of total 11.0% 1.8% 2.0%Hydro Conventional 48,047 1,791 662

Total Renewable 71,937 2,688 8,497 % of total 33.2% 5.3% 2.1%

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Significant increase in Renewable Energy Initiative since 2007 in all 3 states.

Colorado has since installed:

• 10 MW residential & commercial solar panels • Commissioned 8.2 MW utility scale solar plant in Alamosa. 2nd largest in US. • RFP to install 600MW solar plant, which may become the largest install in the world?

Significant increase in Wind turbine installs

NREL and Xcel working on several wind, solar, hydrogen fuel cell, hybrid designs…

Xcel Smart Grid pilot in Boulder…

Conoco Philips Renewable Center, Louisville

NREL going through major expansion…

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PART II: Enabling SEI Global Leadership for USA invinvVESTVEST Vision, Purpose & Strategy Overview

Understanding the Current State & Desired Future State Matrixed Tools we plan to use

invinvVESTVEST specific initiatives Inter actions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace

Should we introduce SEI into our education system? Ideas to get the Education community involved in invVEST SEI

Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up.Probir Ghosh, CEO* & President

invinvVEST VEST team* CEO = Chief Enabling Officer

Twenty years from now instead of fighting over a dwindling resource like fossil based oil to generate our energy that increases our pollution levels to the point of no return for our planet, we generate more and more clean, sustainable energy because it actually helps clean up the environment while fueling our economic growth.

invinvVESTVEST plans to transform this imagination into reality.

Imagine a paradigm shift:

We believe the 30 million student community in USA in high schools, colleges and universities can be GAME CHANGERS in the way we currently generate and use our energy and help in the rapid transition to clean sustainable energy initiatives.

Here is How we Plan to do it:

OUR VISION: Enabling Massive Scale

Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while protecting

our planet for future generations to enjoy.

Together, We can. invinvVEST VEST Sole Purpose: to Enable Global Sustainable Energy Initiatives Leadership (SEI) for USA through Massive Scaling. We will lead by example.The initiative needs significant investment of our mindshare, resources & time hence the name invVEST. We are investing in our future through a massive network of collaborative virtual teams, involving student communities and citizens as well as thought leaders and influencers, hence the name invVEST.Massive Scaling supported by long term structured policies need to drive down prices of SEI below fossil fuel prices it replaces to create and “AND” not an “OR” situation.

Our goal is to create a Vibrant economy AND A Clean Planet for our Future Generation.

GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMY REACHES TEN TRILLION US$ 2030.

60% NEEDS TO BE SEI

CREATES BILLION+ JOBS

TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE USA NEEDS TO BE THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SEI TO CREATE A VIBRANT ECONOMYEvaluate Current State Vs.Desired StateStrategic Tools COLORADO CAN BE THE NEW

ENERGY ECONOMY HUBLEAD BY EXAMPLEUSA<CO STATE< County <Community level implementations

WHAT’S IN IT FOR US?

invVEST SEI COMMUNITYSEI Market Place

UNDERSTANDING THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE invVEST VISION & PURPOSE

We use energy in almost anything we do Our Energy source & how we use energy will drive or sink the new economy

Top Down InitiativeSEI MarketplaceIdea Exchange &

Implementation CenterGenerate, debate, deploy

Focused initiativesAmong thought-leaders & Influencers

AMBASSADORS

THOUGHT LEADERS

SUPPORTERS

BOA

Bottom-up InitiativeMassive Ground Swell Support

From Student & Citizens CommunitiesSEI COMMUNITY PAGE

What’s Hot, What’s Cool Challenge

BOD

Launch5/26/09

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2015

BOA 6 - 10 12 - .20 30 -50 100

Ambassadors 8 - 12 20 - 40 60 - 100 200

Thought Leaders 30 -50 100 - 300

400+ 1,000

Supporters 1,000 10,000plus

100,000plus

1 M+

Economic Impact & Funding

$1- $3M

$1M

$50 - $100M

$2M+

$200BPlus

$20M

GLOBALNATIONAL

invinvVEST VEST Business ModelA Nonprofit Organization

The invinvVESTVEST team has identified three SEIs for massive scaling:1. Break-Through Solar Energy Initiative: 5 GW installed in 2010 with structured but flexible policy & legislation for 12 years in place PPI of <1 by 2015

20% of total US energy consumption by 2030Ramp-up complementary SEI like Wind, Geo Thermal, Hydro, Clean Coal, Energy Storage & Transmission & related smart grid Infrastructure. Ramp up electric energy usage to keep pace with Breakthrough SEI

2. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Initiative: USA consumes 54% more energy than a comparable OECD country. Reduce energy consumption per capita incrementally by 1% a year for 12 years for a total 12% reduction by 2020.

3. Garner massive support from the students and citizens communities. Involve Students, Faculty & Admin of Schools, Colleges and Universities in a grassroots movement to change our behavior and knowledge on how we use energy by introducing relevant curriculum and activities around SEI. The mass movement will also be extended to include all citizens communities for their deep involvement.

Other well defined ideas that hold the promise of meeting SEI definition will be given serious consideration.

The invVEST Virtual Market Place Matrix for Sustainable Energy InitiativesUse this Matrix to Map & identify the right ambassadors and thought-leaders

Thought Leaders & Influencers Energy Cluster

Customers to Energy Clusters

Funding & Financial Sector Cluster

Policy and Regulatory cluster

Behavorial change cluster

Education Services Cluster

Job Creation Services Cluster

Marketing & Strategy Planning Cluster

Media & Promotion Cluster

Initiatives common to all forms of Sustainable energy

Energy Efficiency & Conservation Cluster

Solar Energy Cluster

Wind Energy Cluster

Geo Thermal Energy Cluster

Bio Fuels Energy Cluster

Biomass Energy Cluster

Nuclear Energy Cluster

Hydro Energy ClusterOther Sustainable Energy Clusters

Energy Storage Cluster

Energy Transmission ClusterEnergy Transportation and infrastructure cluster.

Coal Energy cluster

Oil Energy cluster

Gas Energy Cluster

Functional Clusters

Energy Clusters

Visit www.invVEST.org to get to SEI market place, Strategy Papers & useful resources.

http://www.invvest.org/

Massive Scalability in future Carbon FootPrint PPI slope

Reducing Energy Dependence on one Region or Source Side Effects Job Creation

Energy Efficiency & Conservation Cluster

Solar Energy Cluster

Wind Energy Cluster

Geo Thermal Energy Cluster

Bio Fuels Energy Cluster

Biomass Energy Cluster

Nuclear Energy Cluster

Hydro Energy ClusterOther Sustainable Energy Cluster

Energy Storage Cluster

Energy Transmission ClusterEnergy Transportation and infrastructure cluster.

Coal Energy cluster

Oil Energy cluster

Gas Energy Cluster

Vertical Clusters

SEI Traits0-10

BASE MAPPING TOOL: SEI Selection Criteria. 6 Traits Defined for Sustainable Energy (SE). The index of 0 means worst, 10 means best.

If the energy source does not have the potential satisfy these six criteria It may not qualify for SEI, but it may still be a renewable energy source.

The Current State USA Energy Usage ProjectionsUSA will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Imported Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro ConventionalBioMass

Other Renewables remain only 2%of total energy consumption(Wind, Solar, Geo Thermal ,etc)

Domestic Oil

our fossil fuel usagecontinue to increase

from 24,731 B kWh eq. in 2009to 27,260 B kWh in 2030

B kWhEquivalent

84.5%

82.1%

1.7%

2.1%

Oil

Wind

Hydropower

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Biomass

Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants


Other Renewables

Three Strategies We Plan To Use for USA focused invinvVEST VEST initiativesAdapting USA Centric Vision from German Advisory Council for Global Change

Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year

Dynamic 1:Fossil Fuel USE Shift

Dynamic 2:Energy Efficiency& ConservationReduce Total Global Energy Use

Dynamic 3:Technology Enablersfor faster economic parityto fossil fuels

Time 35

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Incremental Energy Efficiency & Conservation PlanIncremental Rooftop solar PVIncremental Central Solar PV & CSPIncremental CST: Solar Thermal with StorageIncremental WindIncremental Geo ThermalIncremental Other

Bold Energy Efficiency & Conservation Project:Reduce per capita energy consumption 1% per yearuntil we reach 12% by 2020Quick Wins & Quick Job Creation

BillionkWh

Central SolarThermalBreaktrough

PV & CPVSolarCentralBreaktrough

Wind

Energy Effeciceny &Conservation ProjectsMaintain at 12%after 2020

Geo Thermal

Breakthrough point fromRadical InnovationsMassive ScalingAggressive programs &Funding put in place in 2009

Speicific Initatives for invVEST SEI

Initiative 3 Students & Citizens Community Groundswell in invVEST initiativesWill strongly influence

Initiative 1BreakthroughSolar Initiative

Rooftop solar

Initiative 2

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

FOSSIL FUELS : OIL, COAL, GASusage reduces from24,423 B kWh eq. in 2009 to10,747 B kWh usage in 2030

The dip in total energy usage is occuring due to the stretch energy efficiency& conservation programGoal 12% per capita energy consumptionreduction by 2020 & maintain in future years

BIO FUELSNUCLEAR

HYDRO CONVENTIONALBIOMASS

OTHER RENEWABLESwind,solar, geothermal, etc

INCREMENTALGEO THERMAL

INCREMENTALWIND

INCREMENTALSOLAR PV & CSP

B kWh

83.5%

34.6%

1.7%

29.7%

breakthrough innovationrequired for solar & wind energy storage

71.5%

8.3%

The Outcome of successful invVEST SEI Energy Usage shifts to SEI majority (65%)

Total energy needed globally is 100,000 times less than the amount of solar energy falling on earth.

Solar Energy generates less than 0.05% of total global energy. If solar energy generates 25% of global energy, it needs to scale 10,000 times, creating a $3 Trillion Solar Energy Market.

Focus on slicing the pie or make the pie exponentially bigger through massive scaling?

Total energy need of the world

Total energy from Sun falling on earth surface Total energy

need of the world

Current Solar Energy generatedas % of total energy needs

Initiative I: Solar Energy OpportunityUnderstanding the Exponential Size of the Pie

USA & Germany: A Perspective:Land Area: USA has 26 times more land mass & 1,000 times free/arid land space.Sun Radiance: SW corner of USA (5 times larger than Germany) has 40 - 60% more sun radiance.USA GDP is 4 time more than GermanyYet, USA installed a mere 340MW of Solar PV compared to Germany’s 1,800MW in 2008. USA should have deployed 8,000MW to be on par

What is wrong with this picture?

1 KW panelProduces1530 kWh/yr40 -70% more

Germany Solar Energy

I KW panelProduces947kWh/yr

Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative

Initiative I: Break Through Solar Initiative

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

VSNI Breaktrhough Solar

Jigar Shah Consulting

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

VSNI Panel

Jigar TF Panel

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

VSNI BOS

Jigar TF BOS

invVEST Breakthrough Solar Initiative

350GW

85GW

Panel PricesBOS (Balance of Systems) Prices

Massive Scaling can generate by 2030: A $ 2 Trillion Solar Energy Industry Aggressively bring down SEI prices Create 3 Million+ Jobs Colorado can be one of the Hubs Breakthrough Solar initiative will save Trillions of $ for USA over the next 50 years in energy prices & environment cleanup cost

Exponential GameChanging Growth

If we can get the Public & PrivateSector to work collaboratively on reducing the price of Solar Energy.

The Weak LinkFundamental Technology in place. Cd Te can beThe low price game.

41

CountryGermany

CountryUSA

SateColorado

CountyBoulder

Population 80M 307M 5.1M 400KGDP $3.5 T $14.5 T $241B $22BSolar Installed in 2008 1,800MW 340 MW 30MW 1MW?Equalized to USA GDPTo match Germany

7,400 MW

123 MW 11 MW

Breakthrough SolarFor 2010

6,000 MW

120 MW ???

Breakthrough SolarFor 2020

137 GW 18GW

Investment next 7 yrs Return by 2030

$240B1,200B

Solar Revenue 2030 $1,400B $110BSavings from Oil -$20/B$

$3,000B

Jobs 2030 3.8M 700,000

Initiative I: Why Break Through Solar Initiative . Vital Statistics

Colorado based Renewable Energy Initiatives

Boulder

Denver

Golden

Windsor

Fort Collins

School of Mines

CU

CSU

Xcel

NREL

abound Solar Vestas

Ascent Solar

Conoco Philips 2010?

UCD

DU

RMI

Governor's AggressiveEnergy Initiative

NREL & Governor’s Aggressive Renewable Energy Initiative are the biggest reasons for spawning the industry…

We now need to take it to the next levelWe now need to take it to the next level

42I-25

I-70

Primestar Solar

More than 250 SEI based entities in Colorado and growing…

Growing Opportunities for SEI savvy workforce& Management

Visit www.invVEST.orgLook for resourcesUnder media center tab.

http://www.invvest.org/

Initiative II: Energy Efficiency & Conservation

43

CountryUSA

StateColorado

CountyBoulder*

CommunitySuperior*

Population 307M 5.1M 400K 12,000GDP $14.5 T $241B $22B $780MEnergy Usage 29.5T

kWh490B kWh

38B kWh 1.1B kWh

1% Energy Saved in next 12 months

295B kWh

4.9B kWh 0.38B kWh 11 M kWh

Approximate $ ValueEnergy saved

$30B $500M $40M $1.2M

Investment RequiredWith avg. 3 years ROI

$90B $1.5B $120M $3.6M

Energy Saved in 2020

$360B $6B $480M $14.4M

Jobs Created $ Value

$120B $2B $160M $4.8M

Jobs 2.4M 40,000 3,200 96

* Guesswork, need to have real data

invVEST Education Forum

Integrating Communities….. Creating a Sustainable Energy Future•University Sponsorship•Sustainability Student Council Leads•Community Educational Forums•University Curriculum Refinement•Lead Multi-Community Initiatives•Establish Citizenship Community Projects•Technology Co-Development•Energy Sustainability Competitions•Education Leadership Development for K12

•Education Forums•Initiative Sponsorships•Community Grants•Award Recognition Sponsorships

•Community Grants•Curriculum Refinement & Internships•Community Education Forums•Technology Co-Development•Award Recognition Sponsorships

•Community Education Forums•Multi-Community Initiatives•Multi-Community Leadership•Resource Management•Curriculum Recommendations•Scholarships•Award Recognition Sponsorships

45

Initiative III: Mass Student Community InvolvementNavigating the invinvVESTVEST interactive website

Interactions in SEI Community & SEI Marketplace Should we introduce SEI into our education system? Ideas to get the Education community involved in invVEST SEI

Q&A & Feedback, Wrap up. Visit: www. invVEST.org

Probir Ghosh: [email protected]

“Imagine a Handoff Clean Sustainable Energy Fueling our future economy, curing our environment…

Thank You

Energy Initiatives

Back up slides

47

Renewable Energy InitiativesWhat will Stretch Goals look like? A Global Perspective

The 20:20 Vision: What will it take for US to generate 20% of total energy or 21 Quadrillion Btu in 2020 from Non fossil based sources? CSF: Regain Leadership

Leverage & deploy every single source of renewable energy available Fifteen Trillion $ global investment over the next 12 - 20 years?

The investment pales when you consider the world has to invest about 30 Trillion dollars in the next 20 years just to keep the fossil based oil production at the current levels (IEA: Wall Street report Nov 14 th 2008).

Emergence of Energy Economy driving jobs, innovation, rapid execution Six Million New Energy Jobs by 2012, Twenty Million by 2020 The current economic crisis can be the biggest opportunity if a significant >30% of Govt. Funds are strongly linked to renewable energy initiative. If we do not invest now we may lose the window of opportunity

The 50:50 VISION: What will it take for US to generate 50% of total energy or 60 QBtu in 2050? Rest of the World (RoW) to generate 40% of total energy or 240 QBtu in 2050? Maintain Leadership

Key: Revolutionary innovations in energy storage & efficiencies

How can we make Colorado a much more significant player? Lead by Example

48

Taking on Global Leadership in New Energy Initiatives

49

Some Stretch Goals & Radical Thinking for Renewable Energy (RE): Extreme Makeover: Energy Efficiency & Conservation Programs

Reduce Energy consumption per capita: 12% by 2012, create 1,000,000 plus jobs while doing so,

identify quick hit programs with attractive ROI that can be deployed by 2009 -2010

Stretch Goals: USA generates 20% of energy needs from Wind and Solar by 2020? Wind to generate 12% & solar to generate 8%Start with signing up for 80% of Solar Panel Global Supply Demand Gap in 2009 (6 GW)

Suppliers can get profits with 85% capacity utilization with prices as low as $5/W for rooftops 80% or 4.8 GW goes on roof tops in 2009, creating 70,000 plus incremental jobs in 2009

o Federal & States take up 3 GW, 1.8 GW to Residential and commercialo 1.2 GW contracts for centralized, mainly from Thin Film, at $4.00/Wo By 2015, the model flips: 80 % to Centralized, price target $1.75/W, creating 1.5M jobso Like Germany, suppliers locate plants close to source, and Colorado, Arizona are ideal

Radical: As we generate more RE, ship coal to China & sell clean coal technologies

Renewable Energy InitiativesWhat do we do now?

Creating a Comprehensive Vision and Strategy for using every

single source of renewable energy best suitable for USA.

Deeper dive to deploy each initiative and setting stretch goals for

Colorado & USA to take our Renewable Energy Initiatives to the

next level and become a globally recognized leader.

Colorado & USA already has many initiatives going How can we make Colorado & USA a much more significant player?

50

NEXT STEPS…NEXT STEPS…

OUR VISION:OUR VISION:Enabling Massive ScaleEnabling Massive Scale

Sustainable Energy Initiatives will Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while generate the next vibrant economy while

protecting our planet for protecting our planet for future generations to enjoy.future generations to enjoy.

Together , we can.Together , we can.

51

Five Framework Questions for Panelists

1. Size and current focus and what are your near term goals and long term vision?

2. Which technology holds the most promise & when will it break even and when to expect large scale production for the general consumer, what can consumers expect near term?

3. What are the key challenges, resource constraints, sustainability issues & the lifecycle carbon footprint for the 2 most promising technologies?

4. Where does USA stand in terms of innovation, market creation, manufacturing in terms of leadership? What needs to be done?

5. How can we make Colorado an even more prominent and relevant player in your area? What will be your priorities & stretch goals?

52

VSNI Renewable Energy InitiativesWhere are we? A Global Perspective

Norway provides 98% of electricity through hydro electric power

Denmakr provides 30% of electricity through Wind Turbines mostly placed offshore.

France provides 75% of electricity through Nuclear Power

Germany, a sun-poor country, has the largest solar panel installations

Germany also has the largest wind farms with a 22,247MW installed capacity

Brazil generates 25% of its liquid fuel from sugarcane, production cost $25 per barrel

In North America, Canada provides 55% of electricity through hydro electric power

In the US, Washington State provides 20% of electricity through hydro electric power

In the US, Texas has the largest wind farms installed & doubling their capacity by 2010

OPEC and Russia control most of the known oil resources in the world

Russia has 27% of known natural gas in the world. Iran & Qatar controls 29%.

US has the largest reserve of Coal with 28%, providing a 200+ year supply.

With fossil Oil based energy resources running out in 40 -100 years, non fossil based renewable

energy needs to be established for mankind to survive. The environment issue compounds the need.

Energy dependence & security volatilities & crisis will escalate exponentially

53


Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2030(Quadrillion Btu)

Region/Country History Projections1990 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OECD OECD North America 100.7 120.6 121.3 126.4 132.3 137.8 143.4 148.9 0.8 United States /a 84.7 100.1 100.1 103.3 107.3 110.8 114.5 118.0 0.7 Canada 11.0 14.0 14.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 1.2 Mexico 5.0 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.6 2.1 OECD Europe 70.0 81.0 81.4 83.9 86.8 88.5 90.4 92.0 0.5 OECD Asia 26.8 37.8 38.2 39.3 41.4 42.7 43.7 44.9 0.7 Japan 18.5 22.7 22.6 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.4 0.1 South Korea 3.8 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 1.6 Australia/New Zealand 4.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 0.8 Total OECD 197.5 239.4 240.9 249.7 260.5 269.0 277.6 285.9 0.7

Non-OECD Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia 67.3 49.5 50.7 55.1 59.5 63.3 66.0 69.1 1.2 Russia 39.4 29.9 30.3 32.7 34.9 36.7 38.0 39.6 1.1 Other 28.0 19.6 20.4 22.4 24.5 26.5 28.0 29.4 1.5 Non-OECD Asia 47.4 101.0 109.9 137.1 164.2 189.4 215.3 240.8 3.2 China 27.0 59.9 67.1 87.3 104.0 120.6 138.0 155.2 3.4 India 7.9 15.5 16.2 19.4 23.2 26.6 29.9 33.2 2.9 Other Non-OECD Asia 12.5 25.6 26.6 30.5 37.0 42.2 47.3 52.4 2.7 Middle East 11.2 20.9 22.9 26.4 29.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 1.9 Africa 9.5 14.0 14.4 16.5 18.9 20.9 22.5 23.9 2.0 Central and South America 14.5 22.5 23.4 27.7 30.5 33.2 35.7 38.3 2.0 Brazil 5.7 9.0 9.3 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.5 17.0 2.4 Other Central and South America 8.8 13.5 14.1 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.3 21.3 1.7 Total Non-OECD 149.9 207.9 221.3 262.8 302.5 339.4 374.2 408.8 2.5

Total World 347.4 447.3 462.2 512.5 563.0 608.4 651.8 694.7 1.6

Average Annual Percent Change, 2005-2030

In 2005, Colorado consumed 1.43Quadrillion Btu/year or 1.4% of total US consumptionIn 2005, Colorado consumed 1.43Quadrillion Btu/year or 1.4% of total US consumption

China becomes the largest consumer of energy by 2020

Total CO2 eq. emissionExceeded US in 2008.

China will run out of coal & oilin less than 30 years

54


some extrapolations made to update 2004 data to reflect 2007.Most Data : 2006-2007 USA Norway Germany UK France Japan Russia Brazil China India WorldPopulation in millions 305 5 82 63 64 127 140 198 1,366 1,122 6,900 Country/State GDP $ Billion 13,100$ 271$ 2,913$ 1,883$ 1,644$ 4,550$ 795$ 630$ 3,050$ 1,018$ 39,000$

Total Energy Consumption Trillion Btu 101,600 1,977 14,995 10,628 11,955 22,600 32,421 9,951 74,762 16,205 505,933 Percentage energy from Coal 22.41% 2% 22% 16% 5% 20% 14% 5% 70% 53%Percentage energy from fossil Oil 39.19% 27% 36% 35% 36% 47% 19% 39% 20% 33%Percentage energy from Fossil Natural Gas 23.27% 8% 24% 34% 16% 14% 56% 7% 3% 8%Percentage energy from Hyroelectricty 2.42% 60% 1% 0% 5% 3% 6% 36% 6% 5%Percentage energy from Nuclear 8.29% 0% 11% 11% 39% 13% 5% 1% 1% 1%Percentage energy from other renewables 4.43% 0% 11% 1% 1% 3% 0% 11% 0% 0%

Total CO2 eq. million metric tons 6,198 45 871 612 428 1230 1,834 385 5,385 1165 32,637 GDP per capita 42,951$ 57,778$ 35,353$ 30,010$ 25,685$ 35,883$ 5,679$ 3,182$ 2,233$ 907$ 5,652$ Energy Consumption per Capita Million Btu 333.11 422.18 181.98 169.37 186.80 178.23 231.58 50.26 54.74 14.44 73.32 Electric Consumption/capita MWH 13.14 25.61 6.50 5.90 7.37 7.68 6.13 1.99 1.98 0.50 2.49 CO2.eq.metric tons/person 20.32 9.61 10.57 9.76 6.68 9.70 13.10 1.95 3.94 1.04 4.73 Energy consumption by source Quadrillion BtuEnergy from Coal 22.8 0.0 3.3 1.7 0.6 4.5 4.5 0.5 52.3 8.6 121.4 Energy from fossil Oil 39.8 0.5 5.4 3.7 4.3 10.6 6.2 3.9 15.0 5.3 187.2 Energy from Fossil Natural Gas 23.6 0.2 3.6 3.6 1.9 3.2 18.2 0.7 2.2 1.3 101.2 Energy from Hydroelectric 2.5 1.2 0.1 - 0.6 0.7 1.9 3.6 4.5 0.8 30.4 Energy from Nuclear 8.4 - 1.6 1.2 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.1 0.7 0.2 55.7 Energy from Other renewables 4.5 - 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.7 - 1.1 - - 10.12 Total Energy Reserves Quadrillion BtuCoal 6,740 NA NA NA NA 4,022 NA 3,253 3,110 25,653 Fossil Oil 121 45 2 23 1 NA 348 65 93 32 7,719 Natural Gas 211 73 10 21 0 1 1,586 9 93 37 6,316 Reserves in years if 100% of current consumption comes from only it's own reservesCoal 296.04 - - - - - 886.11 - 62.16 362.11 211.27 Fossil Oil 3.04 83.56 0.39 6.28 0.21 - 56.51 16.75 6.19 6.06 41.24 Natural Gas 8.92 461.61 2.72 5.76 0.24 0.44 87.35 12.63 41.40 28.74 62.42

World’s highest %, using internal resources World’s highest %, using imported resources

Significant exporter or abundant resource

4,022 6,704

55

Imagine a Dinner Table Conversation in 2030…

Imagine sitting down for dinner with your teenage children or grandchildren 20 years down the road and having to explain why they cannot do any of the things that was common 20 years ago? Simple things like, not driving to their friends place across town for a party because gasoline is rationed …Having to wear heavy thermals indoors in winter because natural gas is too costly to heat the house…Sweating it out in summer because air conditioners are banned as there are electricity blackouts ….Why a lot of their older friends are being sent off to fight wars over Mid-east and other far off places….

or worse why do they have to go to so many of their friends funerals…Why do they have to use oxygen masks every now and then. Why more and more of their friends seem to be developing acute breathing problems….Why there are all too frequent hurricanes & tornadoes, tidal floods and ….. Global dimming

What ever happened to their country where everyone dared to dream to be whatever they wanted to be in the most vibrant country in the world….All indications* point towards this scenario unless we come together to set & meet much more aggressive stretch goals to resolve this on coming Economic & Environment Tsunami.. NOW.* While we can debate about concrete proof, how much warning did we have for the Asian Tsunami that caused 250,000+ deaths, Katrina, or the current Global Financial Crisis or 9-11? There is significantly more evidence and body of work by scientists, the world over, that we are heading towards an environmental calamity. The future of our very next generation is at stake.

56

Renewable Energy InitiativesStrategic Approach to Economically


If solar performance & efficiencies track Moore’s Law for computing price performance,Solar installed cost and $/KWH will drop much more dramatically than this scenario.Will need exponential improvements in networked storage, smart grid technologies.

POINTS TO PONDER:Area & cost for Solar to generate The German Advisory Council Scenario:

2010 2020 2030 2040 2100

Trillion of KWH per year 0.1 1 10 100 250

Global Energy Requirements Trillion KWH eq. 150 200 230 280 470

% of Gloabal Energy supplied 0.07% 0.50% 4.35% 35.71% 53.19%

MW capacity that need to be installed 72,098 720,981 7,209,805 72,098,053 180,245,133

Acres Needed per MW capacity 10 5 3 2 1

Sq.miles needed 1,127 5,633 33,796 225,306 281,633

USA area in sq.miles 3,838,527

World Land Mass sq.miles 57,577,910

Available for Solar arrid lands/deserts 287,890

% of available land 0.39% 1.96% 11.74% 78.26% 97.83%

Installed Cost in $/W 6.00$ 2.00$ 1.00$ 0.50$ 0.25$

Cost in Billions of US $ 433$ 1,442$ 7,210$ 36,049$ 45,061$

current Global GDP 2008 US $ B 60,000$

% of current global GDP 0.72% 2.40% 12.02% 60.08% 75.10%

Radical /Revolutionary Technology needed

57

Renewable Energy InitiativesStrategic Approach to Economically


Solar CSF: Replicating Moore's Law for Cost, Exponential improvement in storage & smart grid

Algae CSF: GMO for exponential increase in yield & extraction efficiencies, economies of scale for bioreactors

A Hypothetical Comparative Scenario Solar vs Algae2010 2020 2030 2040 2100

Solar MW capacity per acre 0.1 0.2 0.33 0.5 1

KWH generated per year 146,000 292,000 481,800 730,000 1,460,000

Cost $/W 6.00$ 2.00$ 1.00$ 0.50$ 0.25$

Cost to install 601,000$ 401,000$ 331,000$ 251,000$ 251,000$

Cost to operate annually 1,000$ 1,195$ 1,428$ 1,707$ 2,040$

Amortized cost over 20 years @6% (53,398)$ (36,156)$ (30,286)$ (23,590)$ (23,923)$

Cost $ per KWH 0.366$ 0.124$ 0.063$ 0.032$ 0.016$

Algae production capacity gallons per acre 1,200 6,000 15,000 30,000 60,000

KWH Equivalent generated per year 18,002 90,009 225,022 450,044 900,088

Cost to Install 101,000$ 105,000$ 120,000$ 150,000$ 200,000$

Cost to operate annually to get end use energy 6,800$ 12,524$ 20,768$ 24,524$ 66,524$

Amortized cost over 20 years @6% (15,606)$ (21,678)$ (31,230)$ (37,602)$ (83,961)$ Cost $ per KWH equivalent 0.867$ 0.241$ 0.139$ 0.084$ 0.093$

58

GLOBAL ELECTRICITY USAGE USA, OECD Europe & China consumed 54% of global electricity produced

Electricity constitutes 40% of Global Energy ConsumptionA Strong Case for Energy Efficiency & Conservation Programs

59

World Total Net Electricity Consumption, Most Recent Annual Estimates, 1980-2006 (Billion Kilowatthours) USA Rest of World

OECD Europe

Country 1980 1990 2000 P2006 %of 06 ChinaBermuda 0.29 0.43 0.55 0.62 0.0%

United States 2,094 2,837 3,592 3,817 23.3% 23.3%

North America 2,461 3,372 4,265 4,544 27.7% 4.4%Antarctica - - - - 0.0%Central & South America 270 423 649 802 4.9% 4.9%

Europe, OECD/Non OECD 2,013 2,536 2,956 3,297 20.1% 15.2% 5.0%

Eurasia 1,169 1,461 1,034 1,196 7.3% 7.3%

Middle East 85 205 383 558 3.4% 3.4%Algeria 6 13 20 27 0.2%Gambia, The 0 0 0 0 0.0%Africa 170 278 367 480 2.9% 2.9%

China 261 549 1,178 2,529 15.4% 15.4%India 98 220 375 517 3.2%Indonesia 11 38 78 111 0.7%Japan 524 776 946 982 6.0%Kiribati 0 0 0 0 0.0%Asia & Oceania 1,166 2,133 3,558 5,502 33.6% 18.2%

World Total 7,333 10,407 13,211 16,379 100.0% 53.9% 46.1% 100.0%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use, International Energy Statistics Team.Table Posted: December 8, 2008USA consumes 53% more Electricity than OECD Europe

Which has 25% more population and 15% more GDPCan we have quick wins with Energy Efficiency & Conservation?We can quickly ramp up 1,000,000 plus jobs, with attractive ROI