Drought, the Lumbering Walrus of

Canadian Natural Hazards Past, Present, and Future

Harvey Hill, Kristin Bruce, Darrell Corkal Drought: In the life, Cultures and Landscapes of the Great Plains

40th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium April 3, 2014

40th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium

• Katlin Strobbe • Monica Hadarits • Robert Armstrong

• Where were we?

• Where are we?

• Where could we be going?

But first a little background

North American Water Consumption • Canada receives 3300 KM3 of renewable water

per year1. • The United States receives 3060 KM3 of

renewable water per year. – A cubic kilometer of water being 1 trillion liters.

• The total renewable water per capita is – 94 million liters in Canada, and – 10 million liters in the United States

• Simplistically Canadians have 9 times more water per capita than their U.S. counterparts.

• In reality not all parts of Canada are equally endowed

1 Gleick, Pacific Institute

• The Prairies often receive less than 350 mm precipitation per year between snow and rain. – Known as the Palliser

Triangle (13, Marchildon et al., 2007)

Current Drought Conditions on Canadian Prairies(1, AAFC, 2013)

• These challenges make drought hard to quantify; spanning large distances and slowly moving into new sectors as a situation worsens.

Sauchyn, D, J. Vanstone and R. Armstrong , 2013

Relief for Farmers, 1930s, PFRA

Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (11, Wark, 2006)

• Established by the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Act, 1935

• Branch of AAFC • Original mandate: Help mitigate

effects of drought in 1931-1941 namely, soil erosion and lack of water resources required for ag. development in drought effected areas of SK, MB, and AB

• In 2012, the Federal government announced the termination of PFRA (14)

Source: http://branimirphoto.ca/blog/article-about-pfra-community-pastures-by-laura-stewart/

Source: OECD 1995 and 1996

Where are we?

• 2001-2002 (Wheaton et al., 12)

– Coast to coast effects (similar to 1914)

– First to have a name ‘Ada’ – Ag. production declines $3.6 B – GDP fell $5.8 B across Canada – Research resulted in a call for a

national drought adaptation network (DAN)

Photo sources: theglobleandmail.com, PFRA, cbc.ca; drinetwork.ca

Most common adaptations:

• Crop insurance, water conservation and management • Income stabilization programs • Shared costs • Irrigation, not funded by Federal Government in recent

times

• Zero-till

• Tree planting

• Fallow covering

• Livestock tax deferral.

Management Plans

• Dealing with Drought Handbook, British Columbia

(2004)

• Drought Risk Management Plan, Alberta (2010)

• Hydrologic Drought Risk Management Plan,

Saskatchewan (2010)

• Drought Management Plan, Prairie Adaptation

Research Collaborative (2005)

Policy

• Ontario Low Water Response Plan (2012)

• Drought Response Plan, British Columbia

(2010)

• 25 Year Water Security Plan, Saskatchewan

(2012)

• Tomorrow Now, Manitoba (2012)

http://www.parc.ca/mcri/

Drought Research Initiative (DRI) (24)

• To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and to contribute to their better prediction, through a focus on the recent severe drought 1999 – 2004/2005.

Photos courtesy of the PFRA

• VACEA’s goal is to provide new knowledge to strengthen the capacities of governance institutions and rural populations in Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia.

A Modest Attempt to Take the "I" out of the “Hydro-Illogical” Cycle

Harvey Hill 1, Terry Rolfe 2, Elaine Wheaton 3, Richard Lawford 4, John Pomeroy 5, Ronald Stewart 6, Nancy Lee 7

CMOS Congress, Kelowna, May 28, 2008

1 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2 Consultant, Saskatchewan Research Council, 4 Drought Research Iniatitive, 5 University of Saskatchewan, 6 Mcgill University, 7 Agrculture and Agri-Food Canada Contact: hillh@agr.gc.ca

22

1 Panic 2 Competition 3 Discover/”War Game”

4 2

year/Game

5

Partnerships/Deliver

6

Multi-year Drought/Discover

The Genesis of the Invitational Drought Tournament

Climate Adaptation for Resilience in Agriculture (CARA) project:

• Visualization

• Valuation

24

Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT)

• Discussion-support tool – Helps institutions tackle drought preparedness. – Forum for multi-disciplinary stakeholders to

discuss climate preparedness and adaptation.

Decision Theatre, Arizona State University?

Providing Decision makers a methodology to improve climate resiliency through cost effective adaptation

Source: soundwaves.usgs.gov

Where Are We Going?

?

I heard that WWF Guy yesterday.

• Can we set a target from 1 liter per 1

calorie to 0.8 liter per calorie, 0.6 liter per calorie?

A Drought 20 years From Now Matters Even More

• Political stability, • Ratio of arable acres to per capita declining, • Lose market share, • When does the non-negotiable become

negotiable? – Water diversion, – GMOs, – Land use diversification?

• Can we look at the landscape in terms of the drought we can’t cope with?

• Petra? • Israel/Jordan? • Queensland? • The Southwest Indians? • Strategic use of forecasting

– Shell foresighting exercise

33

Declining hectares out of commission due to climate extremes

2040 Today

Declining Emergency Response Costs

Bench Mark Reduction by Emergency Payments and Land Out of Commission

Costs of Resilience investing lower than Response Post Extreme

1. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2013) Current Conditions. Drought Watch Website. 2. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2013) Synthesis Report: Lessons Learned from the Canadian Drought Years 2001 and 2002, www.agr.gc.ca. 3. Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Wesbite (2014). Retirved on March 24, 2014 from http://www.parc.ca/vacea/ 4. The Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT), AAFC, 2013, AgriWiki. 5. Statistics Canada. (2013). Agricultural Water Use in Canada 6. Statistics Canada. (2011). Environment Accounts and Statistics Division, Agricultural Water Survey (5145) 7. Environment Canada. (2013). Residential Water Use Data. Retired from http://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=553CC57B-1 on Feb.

25, 2014. 8. Environment Canada (2013). Water Withdrawal and Consumption by Sector Data. Retrieved from http://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-

indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=E4F451B5-1 on Feb, 25, 2014. 9. Econonics (2010). British Columbia Drought Response Plan. Prepared for Ministry of Environment. Retrieved from www.livingwatersmart.ca/drought/ Feb.27, 2014 10. Government of Alberta. (2010). Alberta’s Agriculture Drought Risk Management Plan. Policy, Strategy and Intergovernmental Affairs Division. Retrieved on Feb. 27,

2014 from http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/ppe3883. 11. Wark, W. (2006). Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA). The Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan Website.

http://esask.uregina.ca/entry/prairie_farm_rehabilitation_administration_pfra.html 12. Wheaton, E., Koshida, G., Bonsal, B., Johnston, T., Richards, W., & Wittrock, V. (2007). Agricultural Adaptation to Drought (ADA) in Canada: The Case of 2001 to

2002. Saskatchewan Research Council. Prepared for the Government of Canada’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program. SRC Publication No. 11927-1E07

13. Marchildon, G.P., Kulshreshtha, S., Wheaton, E., & Sauchyn, D. (2007). Drought and institutional adaptation in Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914-1939. Retrieved from www.researchgate.net on Feb. 27, 2014.

14. Canadian Cowboy Country (2012). The Death of the PFRA. Retrieved on Feb. 17, 2014 from www.cowboycoountrymagazine.com/2012/10/the-death-of-the-PFRA 15. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority (2010). Saskatchewan Drought Activities: Drought Research Initiative. Presented in Winnipeg May 12-14, 2010. Retrieved from

www.drinetwork.ca/10annual/oegema.pdf on March 4, 2014. 16. SaskAdapt (2014). SaskAdapt Website. Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative. Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from http://www.parc.ca/saskadapt/ 17. Water Security Agency (2012). Saskatchewan’s 25 Year Water Security Plan. Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from www.wsask.ca 18. Ontario Government (2010). Ontario Low Water Response. Retrived on March 4, 2014 from

http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/Business/Water/2ColumnSubPage/STEL02_165451.html

References

18. Government of Manitoba (2010). Update on Manitoba Drought Management Plan. PARC Workshop Presentation September 20-21, 2011. Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from www.parc.ca/.../1_five_Update_MB_drought%20_Plan_PRAC_Worhsop_ Sept%2020_21%202011.pdf 19. Wheaton, E.E., Arthur, L.M., Chorney, B., Shewchuk, S., Thorpe, J., Whiting, J., and Wittrock, V. (1992). The Prairie Drought of 1988. Climatological Bulletin, 26(3), pp. 188-205. 20. Natural Resources Conservation Service (2013). United States Department of Agriculture. Website. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/site/national/home/. 21. U.S. Drought Portal (2013). NIDIS Information. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/what-nidis. 22. NOAA (2013). Climate Section, NOAA Website. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html. 23. Ontario Government. (2010). Ontario Low Water Response. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from www.lowerthames-conservation.on.ca/publications/mnr_e002322.pdf 24. Drought Research Initiative Website (2014). www.drinetwork.ca 25. Hoekstra, A.Y. and ·A. K. Chapagain (2007) Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resource Management (2007) 21:35–48 DOI 10.1007/s11269-006-9039-x, Received: 18 January 2005 / Accepted: 12 October 2005

Drought: In the life, Cultures and Landscapes of the Great Plains

40th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium