drought testbeds example richard r. heim jr.* · task wa-06-02: droughts, floods and water resource...
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National Climatic Data Center
Drought Testbeds – The NIDIS
Example
Richard R. Heim Jr.*NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center
Asheville, North Carolina, USA
* Chad McNutt, Roger Pulwarty, Jim Verdin, Lisa Darby (NIDIS Implementation Team)
* Mike Brewer (NIDIS Portal Manager)
GEO-DRI Drought Monitoring WorkshopWinnipeg, Manitoba, Canada – 10-11 May 2010
National Climatic Data Center
Relationship to GEO 2009-2011 Work Plan
Societal Benefit Area – 2.5: Water
Task WA-06-02: Droughts, Floods and Water Resource
Management
Sub-task WA-06-02-d: Prototype Regional Drought Early
Warning Test Beds
Task Definition: ―Explore expanding the concept of the North American
Drought Monitor and drought portal through prototype drought early
warning test bed activities in specific international river basins, such
as on the US-Canada border, basins in Central America and the
Caribbean, the Mediterranean, and other drought-sensitive regions.‖
NADM & NIDIS Drought Portal
The US-CN GEO Bi-lateral 5 testbeds and 2 drought studies
The 9 EC/NOAA proposed cooperative projects
Global Drought Assessment Workshop (GDAW) International Clearinghouse
Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS)
National Climatic Data Center3
NIDIS Objectives
o Coordinating national drought monitoring and forecasting systems
o Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
o Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning
Begin with a series of pilot projects to create local drought early warning systems
Creating a drought early warning information system
From Pilots to a National DEWS
Southeast
Colorado
River
Basin
California
Prototyping
approaches /
methods
Regional DEWS:Chesapeake Bay; Great
Plains; Tennessee Valley;
Montana; Columbia River
Basin, etc.
National DEWS Transferability
Missouri
Oklahoma
Montana
Chesapeake Bay
NIDIS Early Warning Systems PilotsHighlighted-first round prototypes;
Others-Regional DEWS & transferability
Southeast
Colorado River Basin
California
Columbia River Basin
Great Plains
Great Lakes
Tennessee Valley
o Categories of drought information users & scales of analysis
Pilot Implementation
Upper Colorado River Basin:
oUpper Basin down to Lake Mead:
oCoordinated reservoir operations: Low
flow shortage triggering criteria
(Powell/Mead)
oSub-basin:
oInter- and Intra-basin transfers; Front
range urban-agriculture--Changing water
demand during drought
oEcosystem health/services including
recreation and tourism impacts
Kremmling
Actions from the Scoping Workshop (held to explore
existing mandates, decision cycles, and organizational capacities)
• Develop a UCRB-specific drought monitor
• Inventory and assessment of drought indicators and
triggers presently used in the UCRB
• Facilitate web access to indicator and trigger
observational data and information products
• Perform a monitoring networks gap analysis for the
UCRB
• Develop new/improved monitoring and impacts
information
NIDIS – Upper Colorado River Basin
Pilot
Interviews and Focus Groupsconducted by the Colorado Climate Center exploring drought
indicators, triggers and data needs by sector
o USBR (Grand Junction and Loveland offices)
o Colorado Division of Wildlife
o Colorado DNR (state and local)
o Denver Water and other smaller water providers
o Northwest Council of Governments (water quality)
o Watershed protection groups
o USDI (BLM, NPS) and other resource managers
o Colorado River Water Conservation District
o Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District
o EXCEL Energy
o Grand County interest group
o Summit County interest group
o Fraser Experimental Forest
o Water Availability Task Force
o Winter Park Resorts and other ski area representatives
o Other (discussed with WY and UT State Climatologists, but no interviews with users outside Colorado)
General Findingso Results vary by sector and by individual user based on ―exposure to drought
risk‖
o Most (not all) users systematically track available hydro-climatic data and projections from existing sources, at least at critical times of year
o Water rights and the prior appropriation doctrine dictates ―exposure and potential risk and impacts‖ for pretty much all surface water users. River ―calls‖ are the ultimate triggers and indicators
o Operators of the major reservoirs systematically said ―our jobs are easiest during drought but our critical decisions and errors are made during high flows‖
o Most surface water interests said ―I’m not that worried about drought in this basin until it is at least a 3-year drought‖
o Drought indices are less likely to be used in decision making but more likely to be used for general comparison with other geographic regions and to communicate to the public or to non-technical oversight groups (Boards) why drought actions like conservation or curtailment may be needed
Requested information by users
o More detailed local monitoring
o better forecasts
o ―hand holding‖ for interpretation and application of complex drought information (including the use of available indexes)
o better elevational knowledge of precip and anomalies
o better historical perspective on streamflow and reservoir data
o easier one-stop shopping for all information
o inclusion of water demand
o emphasis on ―Familiar Analogs‖ ―It is now as dry as 19__‖
Other UCRB Activitieso NRCS Revised Surface Water Supply
Index (SWSI) for Colorado
o Partnership with CUAHSI to Develop
Drought Index System Architecture
o Integrate CPC objective climate forecasts
into RFC Ensemble Streamflow
Predictions (ESP)
o UCRB Water Demand Spatial Analysis
o Reconciling Projections of 21st Century
Colorado River Flows
o Coordination with Colorado Water
Conservation Board and Revision of State
Drought Mitigation and Response Plan
Digital Watershed
NHDPlus
NOAA NCDCand ASOS
USGS NWIS Streamflow
Connecting geospatial and temporal water
resources data
NRCSSnotel
David Maidment, U Texas
Year 2 Actions
Prototyping/gaming: Given better data and information coordination, would responses have been improved for past events? Assess:
1. Value of improved information using past conditions
2. Responses for projections/scenarios (seasons, decadal, change)
3. Develop EWS Fora
4. Feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to Executive Council
Pilot Implementation
Upper Colorado River Basin
Impacts on Native American Lands in the
Four-Corners Region
(Nature, 2009)
o Sustained interactions, e.g. precipitation data and how
these data could feed into developing drought indices
o Help with integrating resource planning with drought
planning
o Characterize how to provide early warning of likely water
conflict among tribal lands
o Education campaign on water usage and planning
o Streamlining current monitoring network
Principal
Elements
of Climate
Risk
Reduction
Framework
(Wilhite…
of course)
SUMMARY
NIDIS offers a framework for developing
and mainstreaming information services to support adaptation strategies as climate varies and changes
The Pilot Projects are trailblazers to show us the way
Thanks!
EXTRA SLIDES
o National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
o National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
o USDA: Natural Resources Conservation Service
o USFS: Region 2
o USBR: Eastern Colorado Area Office, Great Plains Region, Office of Policy and Programs, Research and Development
o USGS: Colorado Water Science Center, Central Region, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center
o NOAA: Earth System Research Laboratory, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Climatic Data Center, National Weather Service
Scoping Workshop to explore existing mandates, decision
cycles, and organizational capacities
o Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR)
o Colorado State Climatologist
o Colorado River Water Conservation District (CRWCD)
o Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB)
o CU – Western Water Assessment, CIRES, and CADSWES
o Denver Water Board
o Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (NCWCD)
o Wyoming State Engineer
o Wyoming State Climatologist
o Utah State Climatologist
o Desert Research Institute/WRCC
NIDIS – Upper Colorado River Pilot
Upper Colorado River Low-Flow Project
Identification of low flow/stage impacts near 164 forecast points
National Drought
Mitigation Center,
Lincoln Nebraska
Impacts data
incorporated into the
NWS Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction
System (AHPS)
NRCS Revised Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) for Colorado
Mike Gillespie, NRCS
NIDIS – Upper Colorado River Pilot
Drought Index System
Architecture
Data Processing andIndex Calculation
HIS Server
ODMGetSitesGetSiteInfoGetVariableInfoGetValues
WaterOneFlowWeb Service
WaterML
NWIS
SNOTEL
NOAA-NCDC/NWS ASOS
HIS Data Services
Data Products and Services•Web Map Based Display of Index•WaterOneFlow Web Service(s) for inputs and outputs•GIS Data Services
• WMS, WFS, WCS• Digital Watershed• Drought Index Results
WaterML
DigitalWatershedNHD Plus
CUAHSID. Tarboton
J. Horsburgh
Utah State University
• Integrate CPC objective climate forecasts
into RFC Ensemble Streamflow
Predictions (ESP)
• Introduce time-varying potential
evapotranspiration into ESP water supply
forecasts
• Provide USBR operations management
model with continuous, probabilistic ESP
forecasts of hitting EIS trigger points, as
opposed to single value water supply
forecasts
NIDIS – Upper Colorado River Pilot
Enhancements to Water Supply Forecasting
UCRB Water Demand Spatial
Analysis
o Develop drought vulnerability GIS database that represents topological relationships among water users and their respective sources of water supply
O. Wilhelmi and K. Sampson, NCAR
Reconciling Projections of 21st Century
Colorado River Flowso Recent research: mid-century reductions in flow from
+5 -45%
o Need for examining the wide range of predictions, to
better meet information needs of planners and decision
makers
o Four cooperating RISAs: WWA, CAP, CLIMAS, and
CIG
o Coordinated by Robin Webb, NOAA/ESRL
NIDIS – Upper Colorado River Pilot
Coordination with CWCB
• Revision of the Plan to meet
drought requirements of the
State Natural Hazard
Mitigation Plan, as well as
FEMA and EMAP
• Development of indices that
incorporate current surface
water conditions and a
forecast component
• Evaluate trigger points and
the responses that they
activate
Low Flow Impacts Report on
ACT/ACF River Basinso Identified impacts related to low
flow at AHPS forecast points
o Partnership between National
Drought Mitigation Center and
NOAA-NWS
o Key Questions:
o Typical impacts of low river
levels/flow
o At what stage/flow do impacts
occur
o What is the timing
o Other considerations
o Forecast Points=58
o ACF=33
o ACT=25 27
28
“If we don’t get NIDIS right, we can’t
get a National Climate Service right”
Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center
6th Drought Monitor Forum
Austin, Tx Oct. 7-8, 2009