draft update to ocean going vessels (ogv) emissions inventory

37
Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only Draft Update to Ocean Going Vessels (OGV) Emissions Inventory 1 2022 AQMP Mobile Source Working Group August 24, 2021

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Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Draft Update to Ocean Going Vessels (OGV) Emissions Inventory

1

2022 AQMP Mobile Source Working Group

August 24, 2021

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

South Coast 2037 Draft Attainment Goal

Stationary and Area

Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

Aircraft

Ocean Going Vessels

Off-Road Equipment and Vehicles

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Baseline Carrying Capacity 2037

SCA

B N

Ox

Emis

sio

ns

(tp

d)

Stationary and Area

Cars/Light-Duty Trucks/SUVs/Motorcycles

Medium-Duty & Heavy-Duty Gas Trucks

Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

Aircraft

Locomotives

Ocean Going Vessels

Commercial Harbor Craft

Recreational Boats

Off-Road Equipment and Vehicles

Carrying Capacity

Locomotives

Passenger Vehicles

Carrying Capacity55-85 tpd

2

More than 70% Reduction Needed to Meet 2037 Goals

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

OGV NOx Emission Contribution in South Coast

3

On-Road43%

OGVs19%

Aircraft10%

Trains4%

Off-Road Equip.24%

2037

On-Road56%

OGVs10%

Aircraft5%

Trains5%

Off-Road Equip.24%

2017

• OGV emissions (out to 100 nautical miles) make up 20% of mobile source NOx emission in 2037, up from 10% in 2017

Source: CEPAM 2019 Summer Emissions, with 2020 At Berth Regulation amendments

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

OGV Inventory• OGV inventory covers marine vessels over

400 feet, 10,000 tons, with large engine displacement

• At-Berth inventory updated in 2020

• Inventory updates for transit, maneuvering, anchorage are needed

o Improve base year accuracy and location specificity

o Review growth forecast and future engine Tiers for visiting vessels

o Review literature on emission factors for main/auxiliary engines and boilers

42016 Container Vessel Tracks

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Modes of Operation• At-Berth: Operations while moored to a dock

• Anchorage: Operations when vessel drops anchor near the port

• Maneuvering: Slow speed vessel operations while in port areas

• Transit: Vessel operations between ports

5

Transit Maneuvering Anchorage

At-Berth

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Data Sources: Overview

6

Emission Factors

Characteristics

Vessel Activity Forecasting

2020 AIS Records

2020 IHS Records

2020 EPA EFs FAF 4.4

Engine Defaults

2020 IHS Records

2020 Starcrest Historical Port Calls

Mercator ReportControl Measures

2019 Compliance

2019 Industry

FAF: Freight Analysis Framework

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Activity Data Source: AIS• Automatic Identification System (AIS) is an onboard navigation safety device that all OGVs

are required to equip for improved navigation and collision avoidance.

7

• AIS reports provide vessel location and movement information in US waterways.

• This massive data source is made public through collaboration of the USCG, NOAA, and the Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management (BOEM) via Marine Cadastre.

https://coast.noaa.gov/htdata/CMSP/AISDataHandler/2020/index.html

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Geographic Domain

Statewide

8

South Coast

0 – 3 nm

3 – 24 nm

24 – 100 nm

Point Fermin

20 nm

40 nm

Over-water Boundary

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Processing AIS

9

• OGV records are matched with EPA emissions factors and default loads by vessel type, engine type, and activity.

• Activity defined by location and speed.

* This figure depicts one month of cleaned AIS data for illustration purposes only. Berth Hotelling

Activity Modes:

Berth Hotelling• Within 4 km of port, not in

anchorage zone, and speed of 0 kts

Anchorage Hotelling• Within anchorage zone with

speed < 1 kts

Maneuvering• Within 3 nm, speed < 3 kts

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

South Coast 2020 OGV by Type

10

Anchorage Hotelling Maneuvering TransitBerth Hotelling

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Container Tanker Bulk Cargo

Tota

l Ob

serv

ed H

ou

rs, T

ho

usa

nd

s

Vessel Type

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Container Tanker Bulk CargoEn

ergy

Use

d k

Wh

, x1

00

,00

0

Vessel Type

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Engine Default Loads

• Boiler proposed default values from Ports’ emissions inventory (developed by Starcrest) were used directly for all vessels.

• Tanker loading and discharge activities in Richmond were adjusted with custom power operations based on 2019 industry data.

• Auxiliary engine max power was derived from IHS annual averages by type and size, then combined with Starcrest loads by activity.

Operational kW = [engine load] * [Max aux power]

11

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Example: Applying Aux LoadsOn average, IHS registry shows 3180 kW max aux power for all 8,000 TEU capacity containerships identified in 2020 AIS records.

12

Activity StarcrestDefault

Fractional Load = (Starcrest/IHS)

Transit 1,553 0.4885

Maneuvering 2,485.5 0.7818

Berth 1,116.5 0.3512

Anchorage 1,250.5 0.3933

Records with known max aux power:2020 activity record shows an 8,401 TEU capacity containership at anchor with max installed aux engine power of 3,300 kW. The estimated operational kW for aux engines for that record would be 1,298 kW.

Records without known max aux power: Using default values for operating power instead of adjusting unique vessel power. In example record above, the estimated operational aux power in unknown max power case would be 1,250.5 kW.

Statewide average max power of some vessel types and sizes were lower than Starcrest reported defaults. Fractional loads were adjusted to not exceed 1 for those types and sizes, as shown in following slides.

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Aux Operational kW: Maneuvering

13

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000A

uto

Car

rier

Bu

lk

Bu

lk -

Hea

vy L

oad

Bu

lk -

Sel

f D

isch

argi

ng

Co

nta

iner

1

Co

nta

iner

2

Co

nta

iner

3

Co

nta

iner

4

Co

nta

iner

5

Co

nta

iner

6

Co

nta

iner

7

Co

nta

iner

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Co

nta

iner

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Co

nta

iner

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Co

nta

iner

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Co

nta

iner

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Co

nta

iner

13

Co

nta

iner

14

Co

nta

iner

17

Ge

ner

al C

argo

Oce

an T

ug

(ATB

/ITB

)

Ree

fer

Ro

Ro

Tan

ker

Ch

emic

al

Tan

ker

Han

dys

ize

Tan

ker

Pan

amax

Tan

ker

Afr

amax

Tan

ker

Su

ezm

ax

Tan

ker

VLC

C

Tan

ker

ULC

C

Op

erat

ion

al k

W

Vessel Type and Size

Starcrest Proposed Defaults 2020 CARB Applied Defaults

Note: Container size bins in thousand TEU capacity

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Aux Operational kW: Other Modes

14

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Container 1 Reefer

Op

erat

ion

al k

W f

rom

Au

x En

gin

es

Transit

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Reefer

Anchorage

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

General Cargo Reefer

Berth

Starcrest Proposed Defaults 2020 CARB Applied Defaults

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3

HSD HSD HSD HSD MSD MSD MSD MSD SSD SSD SSD SSD

NO

x (g

/kW

h)

Engine Tier and Type

Old Inventory Draft Update

NOx Emissions Factors Comparison: Main Engines

15Note: High Speed Diesel (HSD), Medium Speed Diesel (MSD), Slow Speed Diesel (SSD)

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3

HSD HSD HSD HSD MSD MSD MSD MSD Boiler

NO

x (g

/kW

h)

Engine Tier and Type

Old Inventory Draft Update

NOx Emissions Factors Comparison:Auxiliary Engines and Boilers

16Note: High Speed Diesel (HSD), Medium Speed Diesel (MSD), Slow Speed Diesel (SSD)

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Auxiliary Engine Boiler Main Engine, HSD Main Engine, MSD Main Engine, SSD

PM

(g

/kW

h)

Engine and Type

Old Inventory Draft Update

PM Emissions Factors Comparison:Distillate Fueled Engines and Boilers

17Note: High Speed Diesel (HSD), Medium Speed Diesel (MSD), Slow Speed Diesel (SSD)

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Forecasting Data Source: FAF

18

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

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15

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48

20

49

20

50

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

Calendar Year

Containership FAF4.4 Growth in LA Region

Base Growth Hi Forecast Lo Forecast Lo with 2 Year Delay

Mercator, Base Mercator, Upside Mercator, Downside

FAF 4.4 Lo Scenario has 2.32 % growth rate in 2020

COVID adjustment to delay Lo Scenario 2021 growth rates by 2 years, before resuming at expected 3.52 % growth in 2023.

Note: Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Containership Capacity Trends

19

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tota

l Arr

ival

s (P

oLA

+ Po

LB)

Calendar Year

Containerships Calling to SPBP Have Larger Capacity Over Last 14 Years

Less than 4000 4001 - 8000 8001 - 16000 More than 16000TEU TEU TEU TEU

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Containership Capacity Adjustment• On average, containerships deliver

about 64% of their max capacity, estimated from SPBP TEUs 2012 –2019.

• We assume the average containerships by size bin will continue to operate as they have historically.

• Container vessels above 8000 TEU capacity were grown enough to meet increased freight forecast from FAF4.4 slow growth scenario.

20

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

Jul-

18

Jan

-19

Jul-

19

Jan

-20

Jul-

20

Jan

-21

Tota

l TEU

s

Month-Year

SPBP Historical TEU, Monthly Jan 2012 - May 2021

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Containership Capacity NOx Impacts

21

0

2

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NO

x (t

pd

)

Calendar Year

South Coast Containership NOx by Size Bin Group

Less than 4000 TEU 4001 - 8000 TEU 8001 - 16000 TEU More than 16000 TEU

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Tier Assumptions

• Based on Mercator report, growth of Tier III vessels delayed until 2030.

• Main engine duty cycle adjustment: All Tier III main engines operating at less than 25% load are assumed to be operating at Tier II levels.

22

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

South Coast Containership NOx by Tier

23

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NO

x (t

pd

)

Calendar Year

Tier 0 Tier I Tier II Tier III

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

South Coast NOx Emissions Out to 100 nm

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NO

x (t

pd

)

Calendar Year

Draft AIS Update by Vessel Type

Auto Carrier Bulk Cargo Container Cruise General Cargo

Reefer RoRo Tanker Vessels (Other) Old Inventory

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

South Coast NOx Emissions Out to 24 nm

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NO

x (t

pd

)

Calendar Year

Draft AIS Update by Vessel Type

Auto Carrier Bulk Cargo Container Cruise General Cargo

Reefer RoRo Tanker Vessels (Other) Old Inventory

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

What Are Your Thoughts

• Tier III Penetration: Is it reasonable to assume that growth of Tier III vessels will be delayed until 2030?

• Tier III Low Load Operation: What do you think about the emission rate assumptions for Tier III engines operating under 25% load?

• Forecasted Freight Growth Rates: Considering recent congestions at the ports, what are your thoughts about the long-term growth rate assumptions embedded in this draft?

26

Send your comments and suggestions to: [email protected]

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Next Steps

CARB Public Workshop

• More statewide level details

• Sep 2021

Draft Release • Open for public comments

• Oct 2021

Final Release• Inclusion in 2022 South Coast SIP

emissions inventory

• Nov/Dec 2021

27

Draft – Deliberative – For discussion only

Contact Information• Nancy Bui, Inventory staff

[email protected]

• Cory Parmer, Manager, Off-Road Diesel Analysis [email protected]

• Sam Pournazeri, Chief, Mobile Source Analysis [email protected]

• Useful Links:o 2019 At Berth Emissions Inventory:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/regact/2019/ogvatberth2019/apph.pdf

o 2011 OGV Emissions Inventory: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/regact/2011/ogv11/ogv11appd.pdf

o 2022 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/2022-state-strategy-state-implementation-plan-2022-state-sip-strategy

28

Ocean-Going Vessel RetrofitWater-in-Fuel Project Update

South Coast AQMP Mobile Source Working Group

August 24, 2021

Background

• Ocean-Going Vessels (OGV) are expected to be one of largest NOx emission sources in the near future

• Forecast showed limited Tier 3 vessel calls at our local ports

• Upgrading an OGV is costly

• OGVs are designed to remain in service for over 25 years

• Need for developing retrofit technologies

Technology Assessment and Selection

• Technologies assessed:

• Selective catalytic reduction (SCR)

• Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR)

• Water-in-Fuel (WiF)

• Alternative fuel conversion

• Battery and fuel cell

• 1st project selection- WiF • Easy to install on the existing ship• Cost-effectiveness• Partnership

Project Partners• Funding: SCAQMD, Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach

• MAN Energy Solutions –Technology Provider• Design and develop the WiF unit• Oversee the manufacturing of WiF• Supervise the installation • Commission and optimization • Emission Testing

• MSC- Demonstrator• Provide vessel specification, access and on-board support• Coordinate ship routes and schedule• Vessel –MSC ANZU

• Built in 2015 Tier 2, container ship with 8800TEU capacity• MAN 9S90ME engine (main)

Water-in-Fuel Retrofit• The WiF unit manufactured into 2 parts:

• Emulsion Mixer

• Emulsion booster

• Elevated foundation installation

• Installation time: 4-6 weeks, while vessel at berth and on route

• Commissioning and optimization

• Emission testing and verification

• Operation range: 10-50% engine load

• Total project cost: $3M

• Expected NOx reduction: 40% or 2.2 ton/call

Project status

June 2020

Project Kick off

October 2020

Engineering and design complete

February 2021

CARB emission test plan approved

April 2021

WiF unit manufactured and Shipped

July-September 2021

Installation

October 2021 Commissioning

Next Steps• Obtain marine approval

• DNV GL

• Installation inspection – August 15, 2021, at Antwerp

• Finalize the vessel route for Q4 2021

• Commissioning and optimization

• Emission Test and verification

• Expected project completion: June 2022

• Expected San Pedro Bay Port vessel call: 5-7 times/year

Challenges

•Uncertainties of vessel routes due to the congestion at the ports around the world

• COVID restrictions• Travel• Board the ship•Deliver materials to the ship