dr. sara via - university of maryland extension...dr. sara via, professor, umd [email protected]...
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
Managing Risk in a Changing Climate
Dr. Sara ViaDept. of Entomology & UME
UMD, College [email protected] Source: NASA, Climate Central
Difference from average temperatures 1881-1910
2016 the hottest year ever
400How do we know this is not part of a natural cycle?
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2013 CO2 concentration: 400 ppm
0800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000
Age (years Before Present)Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
~9 deg
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tion
Tem
pera
ture
Some energy is radiated back into space asinfrared (heat) waves
Some energy is radiated back into space asinfrared (heat) waves
Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss*more gas molecules, **slower heat loss***more warming
Greenhouse gas molecules absorb infrared waves and reflect some heat back to Earth, slowing heat loss*more gas molecules, **slower heat loss***more warming
Most solar radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it
Most solar radiation is absorbed by theEarth and warms it
More CO2 in the atmosphere slows heat loss
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
-Warmer air-Warmer ocean-More water vapor in air-Higher sea levelThese cause- Severe weather; more extreme extremes- More variable weather- Warmer winters, earlier springs, hotter summers
- More rainfall comes as downpours; flash flooding- Rainy springs & falls (MD)- Dryer summers- More tidal flooding and storm surge
Useful to start planning NOW
The “New Normal”
2/8/2017
What does this look like for Maryland? Temperature
Source: NOAA
Average, maximum & minimum temperatureincrease in all seasons
1950 20145-year intervals
Annual Temperature
Days over 80 deg
Days over 100 deg
Nights over 70 deg
Nights over 80 deg
1950 2014 1950 2014
1950 2014 1950 2014
The New Normal in Maryland Growing Degree Days
30-year average
The New Normal in Maryland Growing Degree Days
2016
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
- Northeast nights 4.4o warmer than in 1970- Fewer cold nights for required plant chilling
- perennials, bulbs, fruit trees (apples, peaches)
Effects of Climate Change: Temperature
Wolfe DW et al. 2005. Internat J Biometeor 49:303-309.]
Warmer winters = earlier bloomingNY apples bloom 8 days earlier than in the 1960s
Grapes bloom 6 days earlier
Late spring cold snap freezing, fruit lossPlant new orchards on hilltops, plant longer season varieties?
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Effects of warmer winters, earlier springsPest insects
- better overwinter survival
- earlier appearance
- more generations/yr
- range expansion
- be vigilant & scout!!
- expect the unexpected
Mismatched timing in species interactions
Corn earworm in New Zealand
Species respond differently to warming– impacts biocontrol:- Host adds a generation,
but parasitoid doesn’t
Also affects plants and pollinators
Hysoppus pallidus, parasitoid of codling moth
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
Insect controlInsectary plants attract beneficials,
increase their diversityProvide natural enemies nectar, pollen& protection from predators
Plant mixtures?
Bachelor buttons in celery, beneficials reduce aphids
Lacewing eggs
Heat stress: sun scald
ozone damage!
scald
Adapting to increased temperature- Plant earlier in spring, later in summer- Stagger planting dates to hedge bets- Mulch (plant material, white or reflective)- Try heat tolerant varieties- Build shade, evaporative cooling?
2104: Oakmoor Orchard, BC lost 40% Granny Smith yield to sun scald. Saved $47,000/yr with overhead evaporative cooling
http://www.sustainability.vic.gov.au/services-and-advice/business/energy-and-materials-efficiency-for-business/case-studies/agriculture-case-studies/oakmoor-orchards
Precipitation: 5” more/year than in 1900
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
What does this look like for Maryland?Rainfall
Source: NOAA
Observed rainfall inSpring Summer Fall
1950 20145-year intervals
Observed number of rains > 4”
1950 2014 1950 2014 1950 2014May delay planting, wash out or contaminate fields,
stunt or kill plants, increase disease, cause soil compaction, risk of hail
-Improve drainage
- Improve soil health forbetter infiltration
- Prevent erosion/ cover crops- Use flood-resistant rootstocks- Stagger planting dates- Diversify crops
Spring/Fall flooding: adaptation strategies
Beware: Floods can compromise food safety
Summer drought: adaptation strategies
- Add irrigation (if water available)increase water storage?
- Build up the soil- more organicmatter holds water
- Add mulch?
- Grow cover crops betweenrows and mulch?
- Fruit trees need water mostearly in season, late summerdrought not a problem?
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Dr. Sara Via, Professor, UMD [email protected] 2/16/2017
Drip Irrigation for Fruits &Vegetables Irrigation: Use water wisely
Use online tool to time irrigation:Cornell Climate-Smart Farming
Water Deficit Calculator
Useful Resources for Climate-Smart Farming
Would you like to work on an adaptation plan for your farm?Interested?? Leave your email on the sign-up sheet
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