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NoMoreBorderWalls!CriticalAnalysisoftheCostsandImpactsof
U.S.ImmigrationEnforcementPolicySinceIRCA
Dr.RaulHinojosa-OjedaUCLAProfessorand
ExecutiveDirectorUCLANAIDCenterAugust30th2016
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CriticalAnalysistheCostsandImpactsofU.S.ImmigrationEnforcementPolicySinceIRCA1
Over the last decades, the enforcement component of Comprehensive Immigration
Reformhasconsistentlybeenregardedasanecessitytoreforminspiteofdecliningmigration
flowsandescalatingcosts.ArepeatedmisconceptionbyDonaldTrumpandothercandidatesin
the2016presidentialcampaignhasbeenthebeliefthatthereisanenforcementdeficitalong
theUSMexicanborder,andthatAmericahassomehowlostcontrolofitsborderswithmassive
influxof immigrants2. However,thereality isthatexpendituresalongtheUS-Mexicanborder
areout-of-control.Ratherthanhavingadeficit,enforcementexpenditureshaveboomedinthe
lastthreedecades3.
Sincethepassageofthe last"Comprehensive" ImmigrationReformandControlActof
1986, expenditures onwhat are today Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agencies have increased from an initial $574million a
year to nowover $18.4 billion in 20154with a cumulative total ofmore than a quarter of a
trillion dollars including the budget of 2016. The growth in the amounts dedicated to
enforcement has been regularly fed by a series of enacted bills to increase enforcement
expendituressince1986(seefigure1)5.
1 This research report was produced by the UCLA NAID Center at the request of the William C. Velasquez Institute. Marcelo Plietez and Maksim Wynn provided valuable research assistance to this report. 2 Hinojosa,Raul.“SixHUGENumbersWhichShouldAutomaticallyDisqualifyTrumpfromBeingPresident”.September2015.AccessedAugust2016http://www.naid.ucla.edu/uploads/4/2/1/9/4219226/hinojosa_six_trump_numbers_final2.pdf3USDepartmentofJustice(DOJ),JusticeManagementDivision.(2002).BudgetTrendData:From1975ThroughthePresident's2003RequesttotheCongress.Washington,DC:DOJ.p.106.4Ibid.5Fordetailsofeachenactedbill,seethetableattachedinappendix
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Figure1(Forasummaryofbillspassedseeappendix)
MostofthisrapidenforcementexpendituregrowthoccurredundertheGeorgeW.Bush
administration, where expenditures grew from 4.2 billion in 2000 to 16.3 billion 2008. This
growth however, coincided, with the precipitous decline in unauthorized crossings and
apprehensionsofundocumentedimmigrants6(seefigure2).
6 Ibid.
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Figure2
The increasing expenditure and decreasing apprehensions are resulting in an absurd
consequence; whereas in 1992 it took approximately $1,100 per apprehension, we are now
spending close to $45,000per apprehension7 (See Figure 3). Throughout the same time, the
numberofborderpatrolagentsgrewfrom4,100 in1992toover20,000agents in2015,plus
morethan5,000EnforcementandRemovalOperations(ERO)agents(SeeFigure4)8.
7 Ibid. 8 US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Customs and Border Protection (CBP). (2014). US Border Patrol Agent Staffing by Fiscal Year FY 1992-FY 2013. Washington, DC: DHS, CBP. http://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/U.S.%20Border%20Patrol%20Fiscal%20Year%20Staffing%20Statistics%201992-2013.pdf US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS). (2014). Immigration Enforcement Actions: 2013. Washington, DC: DHS, OIS.
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Figure3
Figure4
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ItisalsoimportanttopointoutthatcontrarytothepopularbeliefthatObamaisquote
“TheDeporterinChief”,thetotalnumberofapprehensionshavecontinuedtoplummetsince
20099.What, in fact,haschanged is thatapprehension thatpreviously resulted in“voluntary
departurereturns,”havemorerecentlyresultedinaprocessofdetention,appearancebefore
immigrationjudges,andformaldeportations. It isalso importanttonotethatsince2013,the
total number of deportations has also significantly declined, alongwith the continuing steep
declineofapprehensions10.
Figure5
AspreviouslycalculatedbytheUCLANAIDCenterin2009andthencorroboratedbythe
Congressional Budget Office in 2013, the projections of future immigration is expected to 9 US Department of Justice (DOJ), Justice Management Division. (2002). Budget Trend Data: From 1975 Through the President's 2003 Request to the Congress. Washington, DC: DOJ. p. 106. 10 Ibid.
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continueitsdecline.Duetoavarietyoffactorsbeginningwiththeslowingdemographicgrowth
inMéxico.Inaddition,itisestimatedthatlegalizationwouldsignificantlyreducethenumberof
undocumentedcrossingsasoccurredafter1986.Lastly, it isestimatedthattheU.S.economy
willexperiencemoderateemploymentgrowthandmoderateunemploymentwhichwillrequire
lessnumberofimmigrantworkersfromMéxico(SeeFigure6).
Figure6
Given the lack of evidence to indicate that the effectiveness of immigration control
relies on enforcement measures, we explored other factors of possible association to
immigration.Oneofthestrongesttherelationshipwefoundwasthatbetweenunemployment
rate in the United States and net undocumented migration. The importance of the US
demand… As the slide shows (See Figure 7), there is a strong correlation between the
unemploymentrateandtheannualnetchangeofmigration,whichindicatesthatabetterfocus
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forimmigrationpolicyshouldbechanginglaborsupplyanddemandrelationsbetweenMéxico
andtheUnitedStates.11
Figure7
It is important to note that there is a similar counter cyclical correlation between the
unemployment rate and the annual changes in the apprehensions of Central American
accompanied and unaccompanied juveniles, despite attempts to intercept the flow of migrants to
the U.S. border though increase apprehensions within Mexico , 12
11 Hinojosa, Raul, ¨5 Basic Lessons from the “Crisis” of Central American Migrants: Poverty and Violence are Root Causes, but US Labor Demand Remains the Key Driver¨. September 2014. Retrieved August 2016. 12 Hinojosa, Raul. ¨5 Basic Lessons from the “Crisis” of Central American Migrants: Poverty and Violence are Root Causes, but US Labor Demand Remains the Key Driver¨. September 2014. Retrieved April 2016.
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Figure8(Fordetaileddataseetheappendix)
Source:statisticsfromInsitutoNacionaldeMigraciones(INM)ofMexico,CongressionalResearchServiceandCBPFYprofiles
Despite these already high enforcement costs, recent congressional attempts at
comprehensive immigration reform have continued to call for huge expansions and
expenditures as an incentive to anti-immigrant republicans to join the reform effort. For
example,thelasttwoCRIbills:SenateBill1348in2007andSenateBill744in2013,requested
huge increases in enforcement expenditures. These bills, which were supported by both
senatorsClintonandSanders,call foranadditional twentytwobilliondollars inexpenditures
over a ten year periodof timewith thenumber of border agents expanding from18,000 to
40,000by202313(SeeFigure9).
13 US Department of Justice (DOJ), Justice Management Division. (2002). Budget Trend Data: From 1975 Through the President's 2003 Request to the Congress. Washington, DC: DOJ. p. 106.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
AccompainedandUnaccompainedAlienChildreninUSandMexicoApprehensions2003-2015
TotalJuvenileapprehensionsUS
AccompaniedAlienChildrenMX
UnaccompaniedAlienChildrenMX
"AccompaniedAlienChildren"US
"UnaccompaniedAlienChildren"US
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Figure9
Data from the Congressional Budget Office, indicates that projected cost per
apprehensionwouldincreaseto$140,000perapprehension(SeeFigure10),andthenumberof
apprehensionsperborderpatrolagentwouldplummeteven further to14apprehensions for
theentireyear,barelyoneapprehensionpermonthperagent14(SeeFigure11).
14 Ibid.
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Figure10
Figure11
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Incomparison,thetotalcostofTrump’sevenmoreradicalenforcementagendawould
be$1.1Trillionincluding1)thecostsofmassdeportations,2)thecostsofpresumably
impenetrablewalls,and3)thebuildupandmaintenanceofahugelyexpandedimmigration
controlandenforcementapparatus.15
1)DeportingtheelevenmillionunauthorizedimmigrantsintheU.S.isamassivetask,
theequivalentofcapturing,detaining,processingandexpellingthecombinedpopulationsof
NewYork,SanFrancisco,Boston,SeattleandDetroit.Thecenter-rightAmericanActionForum
estimatesthatthepricetagformassdeportationwouldbeasmuchas$300billiondollars.3
2)Buildingacompletewallalongthe1,954mileborderwithMexicowouldalsobea
majorundertaking---thecompletedwallwouldbemorethantwiceaslongasthe858mile“iron
curtain”thatseparatedEastandWestGermanyduringtheColdWar.Giventhat670milesare
alreadywalled,aTrumpWhiteHousewouldpresumablyneedtobuildanadditional1,284
milesofwalls,whichat$16millionpermilewouldcost$20billionintotal.FulfillingGOP
candidateScottWalkers’callforasimilarborderwallwithCanadawouldaddanadditional
3,987milesofwalls,withanother1,538milesfortheAlaska-Canadaborder---costingan
additional$88.4billion.
3)FinallyTrumphascalledforsignificantlyincreasingthe$41billionannualbudgetof
theDepartmentofHomelandSecurity(DHS),specificallytriplingthenumberofImmigration
andCustomsEnforcement(ICE)officers.Conservativelyestimatinga$60billionannually
increaseintheDHSbudgetaddsanadditional$600billioninspendingoverthenexttenyears.
15 Hinojosa,Raul.“SixHUGENumbersWhichShouldAutomaticallyDisqualifyTrumpfromBeingPresident”.September2015.AccessedAugust2016http://www.naid.ucla.edu/uploads/4/2/1/9/4219226/hinojosa_six_trump_numbers_final2.pdf
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Appendix
MajorImmigrationEnforcementLawsEnacted1986–2015
Year ImmigrationEnforcementLaw BriefDescription1 EstimateExpenditure2
1986 IRCA:ImmigrationReformandControlAct
Increasein50%theborderpatrolstaffingaswellasimposesanctionstoemployerswhoknowinglyhireorrecruitunauthorizedimmigrants
1988 1:Anti-DrugAbuseAct “Aggravatedfelony”isincludedasanewbutlimitedgroundfordeportation.
1990 2:1990ImmigrationAct Amongotherthings,expandsthescopeofaggravatedfelonytoincludenonpoliticalcrimesofviolenceforwhichaprisonsentenceofatleastfiveyearswasimposed.
1994 3:ViolentCrimeControlandLawEnforcementAct
Penaltiesforalienssmugglingandreentryafterdeportationwereenhanced,aswellasgivestheUSAttorneythediscretiontobypassdeportationproceedingsforcertainalienaggravatedfelons.
1996 4:AntiterrorismandEffectiveDeathPenaltyAct
Establishthe“ExpeditedRemoval”procedureforarrivingnoncitizenswhoborderofficialssuspectoflackingproperentrydocumentsorbeingengagedinfraud.
1996 5:IllegalImmigrationReformandImmigrantResponsibilityAct
Amongotherthings,thislawintroducesnewbordercontrol
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measures,reducesgovernmentbenefitsavailabletomigrants,mandatesanentry-systemtomonitorbotharrivalsanddeparturesofimmigrants,aswellasreinforcesthe“AntiterrorismandEffectiveDeathPenaltyAct”actions.
2001 6:USAPatriotAct ExcludealiensfromenteringtheUnitedStatesthroughthebroadenofterrorismgroundsandincreasesmonitoringofforeignstudents.
$104millionsinFY2002,$50millionovertheperiod2003-2006and$20millionsyearlyafter2006
2002 7:EnhancedBorderSecurityandVisaEntryReformAct
Relevantinformationtoalienadmissibilityandremovabilityissharedbythedevelopmentofaninteroperableelectronicdatasystem
Isestimatedthattheneteffectislessthan$500,000annually
2002 8:HomelandSecurityAct AllthefunctionsoftheUSImmigrationandNaturalizationService(INS)aretransferredtoDepartmentofHomelandSecurity(DHS)
$4.5billionovertheperiod2003-2007.Therewereprojectedthatdirectspendingfromfederalretirementsfundsincreasedaround$1millionin2003andby$5millionoverthe2003-2012period
2005 9:REALIDAct Includesmeasurestoimproveborderinfrastructure,andrequiresstatestoverifyanapplicant’slegalstatusbeforeissuingadriver’slicenseorpersonalidentification
$120millionovertheperiod2006-2010tothestate,localandsometribalgovernments
2006 10:SecureFenceAct Mandatestheconstructionofmorethan700milesof
Estimatedin$4.1billion
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doubled-reinforcedfencetobebuiltalongtheborderwithMexico
2010 11:DepartmentofHomelandSecurityAppropriationsAct
MakesappropriationsfortheDepartmentofHomelandSecurityforFY2010fortheOfficesoftheSecretaryofHomelandSecuritytheUnderSecretaryforManagement,theChiefFinancialOfficer,theChiefInformationOfficer,theFederalCoordinatorforGulfCoastRebuilding,andtheInspectorGeneralandforintelligenceanalysisandoperationscoordinationactivities.
2010 12:MakingemergencysupplementalappropriationsforbordersecurityforthefiscalyearendingSeptember30,2010,andforotherpurposes
Foradditionalamountforsalariesandexpenses,bordersecurityfencing,infrastructure,andtechnologyfortheUSCPBandICE.
2012 13:JaimeZapataBorderEnforcementSecurityTaskForceAct
AmendstheHomelandSecurityActof2002andauthorizestheSecretaryofHomelandSecurityto:EstablishBESTunits,Directtheassignmentoffederalpersonneltotheprogram,Takeotheractionstoassistfederal,state,local,andtriballawenforcementagenciestoparticipate
2015 14:DepartmentofHomelandSecurityAppropriationsAct
ProvidesFY2015appropriationsfortheDepartmentofHomelandSecurity(DHS),includingU.S.CustomsandBorderProtection(CBP),theU.S.CoastGuard,U.S.ImmigrationandCustomsEnforcement(ICE),the
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TransportationSecurityAdministration(TSA),theFederalEmergencyManagementAgency,theU.S.SecretService,andotherDHSprograms.
1. Informationhasbeenobtainedfrom:“MajorImmigrationLaws,1790–Present”;PewResearchCenter,web:http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/timeline-1790
2. InformationhasbeenobtainedfromCongressionalBudgetOffice(CBO)CostEstimatesweb:https://www.cbo.gov/cost-estimates
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AccompainedandUnaccompainedAlienChildreninUSandMexicoApprehensions2003-2015
Year"UnaccompaniedAlienChildren"
US
"AccompaniedAlienChildren"
US
TotalJuvenileapprehensions
US
UnaccompaniedAlienChildren
MX
AccompaniedAlienChildren
MX2003 4,792 81,805 2004 6,200 103,294 2005 7,787 106,776 2006 7,746 94,206 2007 77,778 2008 7,500 52,078 2009 20,000 20,461 2010 18,500 12,791 1,535 2,1862011 16,067 7,022 1,456 2,4422012 24,481 6,548 2,554 3,2002013 38,833 8,564 3,793 5,4372014 68,631 38,892 11,808 10,7112015 40,035 22,132 15,330 17,363 Source:statisticsfromInsitutoNacionaldeMigraciones(INM)ofMexico,CongressionalResearchServiceandCBPFYprofiles
Unaccompanied Alien Children Encountered by Fiscal Year: Fiscal Years 2009-2015, FY 2016 through July Years El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico 2009 1,221 1,115 968 16,114 2010 1,910 1,517 1,017 13,724 2011 1,394 1,565 974 11,768 2012 3,314 3,835 2,997 13,974 2013 5,990 8,068 6,747 17,240 2014 16,404 17,057 18,244 15,634 2015 9,389 13,589 5,409 11,012 2016 14,343 15,243 8,128 9,853