dr mark cresswell scenarios of the future 69eg6517 – impacts & models of climate change
TRANSCRIPT
Dr Mark Cresswell
Scenarios of the Future
69EG6517 – Impacts & Models of Climate Change
Sources of information
“But why? Why do we say the Earth is flat, when the vast majority says otherwise? Because we know the truth.”
Sources of information
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change………..
Sources of information
Royal Meteorological Society
IPCC Key Findings
“Observational evidence from all continents and most
oceans shows that many natural systems are being
affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases”
“Observational evidence from all continents and most
oceans shows that many natural systems are being
affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 8)
IPCC Key Findings
“A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown
it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence
on many physical and biological systems”
“A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown
it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence
on many physical and biological systems”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 9)
IPCC Key Findings
“More specific information is now available across a wide
range of systems and sectors concerning the
nature of future impacts, including for some fields not
covered in previous assessments”
“More specific information is now available across a wide
range of systems and sectors concerning the
nature of future impacts, including for some fields not
covered in previous assessments”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 11)
IPCC Key Findings
IPCC: Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 16)
IPCC Key Findings
“Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather,
climate and sea-level events are very likely
to change”
“Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather,
climate and sea-level events are very likely
to change”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 17)
“Some large-scale climate events have
the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the
21st century”
“Some large-scale climate events have
the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the
21st century”
IPCC Key Findings
IPCC: Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 18)
IPCC Vulnerability Findings
“Some adaptation is occurring now, to
observed and projected
future climate change, but on a
limited basis.”
“Some adaptation is occurring now, to
observed and projected
future climate change, but on a
limited basis.”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 19)
“Adaptation will be necessary to address
impacts resultingfrom the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past
emissions.”
“Adaptation will be necessary to address
impacts resultingfrom the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past
emissions.”
IPCC Vulnerability Findings
“Sustainable development can reduce
vulnerability to climatechange, and climate
change could impede nations’ abilities
to achieve sustainable development pathways”
“Sustainable development can reduce
vulnerability to climatechange, and climate
change could impede nations’ abilities
to achieve sustainable development pathways”
IPCC: Climate Change 2007Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 20)
“A portfolio of adaptation and
mitigation measures can
diminish the risks associated with climate change.”
“A portfolio of adaptation and
mitigation measures can
diminish the risks associated with climate change.”
IPCC Temperature Scenarios
IPCC: Climate Change 2007
Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 32)
IPCC Temperature Scenarios
IPCC: Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 34)
Future Vulnerability Thresholds
IPCC: Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 143)
Adaptation-Mitigation-Impacts
IPCC: Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability (page 748)
Economic Development
“Climate change poses a real threat to the developing world.
Unchecked it will become a major
obstacle to continued poverty reduction”
“Climate change poses a real threat to the developing world.
Unchecked it will become a major
obstacle to continued poverty reduction”
The Stern Review (2007)The economics of climate change (page 104)
“Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change because
of their geographic exposure, low incomes and greater reliance on
climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture”
“Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change because
of their geographic exposure, low incomes and greater reliance on
climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture”
Economic Development
The Stern Review (2007)The economics of climate change (page 104)
“Severe deterioration in the local climate could lead, in some parts of the
developing world, to mass migration and conflict, especially as another 2-3 billion
people are added to the developing world’s population in the next few
decades”
“Severe deterioration in the local climate could lead, in some parts of the
developing world, to mass migration and conflict, especially as another 2-3 billion
people are added to the developing world’s population in the next few
decades”
Economic Development
The Stern Review (2007)The economics of climate change (page 105)
“Little can now be done to change the likely adverse effects that some
developing countries will face in the next few decades, and so some adaptation
will be essential. Strong and early mitigation is the only way to avoid some of the more severe impacts that could
occur in the second half of this century”
“Little can now be done to change the likely adverse effects that some
developing countries will face in the next few decades, and so some adaptation
will be essential. Strong and early mitigation is the only way to avoid some of the more severe impacts that could
occur in the second half of this century”