dr. godfried williams1 project management – topic 6 lecture content planning tools/techniques...

Dr. Godfried Williams 1

Project Management – Topic 6

Lecture Content

Planning Tools/Techniques

Optimization TechniquesResource Planning & Allocation

Linear Programming


Planning Tools Tools/Techniques

List of activities Diaries Bar charts Gantt charts Networking

PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique) CPM (Critical Path Method)

Optimization & Resource Allocation


Overview of Project ManagementResources that a planning engineer has to co-ordinate.

People/Skill/Manpower money Materials/Logistics Machines ) eg. Computers time


Steps to achieve project objective. establish the objective/strategy define the scope of work/activities arrange the activities into a plan estimate the cost, time and

resources(CTR) for each activity analyze the network optimize the network to form a base

plan monitor progress against the plan measure variances and forecast/trends re-plan against objectives


THE OBJECTIVE To exploit the reserves of block x and

y at an acceptable profitability to the company.

Optimise or maximise resources x and y to achieve objective z.

(Linear Programming technique to allocate resources)


Scope of work Translate the objectives

into the scope of work. Feasibility stage Analysis stage Conceptual design stage Detailed design Construction or

Implementation(coding) conversion Changeover Production (going online or live)


Planning the project

Create a list of high level management activities. Convert high level activities to low level

tactical & operational activities. Construct the network by identifying

ES,EF,LS,LF.


PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique)

Addresses Uncertainty in the duration of the project using 3 time estimates Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

(These estimates are used in calculating the “expected time” of the project)


3 Time Estimates Optimistic Time

The minimum time, a , an activity will take.

Most likely time The most likely time, m, is the normal time

to complete the Job. Pessimistic time

The pessimistic time, b, is the maximum time an activity could take


How to derive the time estimates ?

The time estimates are obtained from the most knowledgeable experts about difficulties likely to be encountered and the variability in time during the project

Expert Estimators or those who will manage the project


Time Estimates based on Beta Distribution

Time estimates related in the form of a Beta Distribution because it is unimodal

(finite end points and not necessarily symmetrical). A property that is desirable for a distribution of activity times


Calculating the “Expected Time” Based on this distribution, the mean or expected time, te ,

and the variance, V, of each activity are calculated with time estimates a, m, b using the formulas:

te = a + 4m + b 6

V = b – a 2

6

The variance, V is a measure of variability in the activity completion time


Example – Figure 1 (See calculation on slide 14)

0 3 5

Start of Activity

Most likely, m

13

Optimistic, a Average, te

Prob. Of t

Activity duration time t (days)

Pessimistic b

6


Calculation for Figure 1

te = 3 + 4(5) + 13 = 6 days

6

V = 13 – 3 2 = (1.67 days) 2 = 2.78

6 The larger V, the less reliable te. and the higher the

likelihood that the activity will be completed much earlier or later than te, . In a standard project estimates a and b are close to each other, V is small and te is more reliable.


Expected Duration of Project

Te = te CP

Where te are expected times of the activities on the critical path


Variance in the project duration

VP = V CP

Variance of project duration distribution is calculated as the sum of the variances of the activity durations along the CP


Guidelines to forming a network. Start time

Earliest start time Latest start time

Finish time Earliest finish time Latest finish time

Float Total Float = LS - ES or LF - EF Free Float = float on the critical path

Activity Dummy activity

Events as Nodes - Milestones


Estimating

Rules to be observed estimating time. Duration should be estimated after

the logic has been defined. Duration should be based on scope

of work and resources required. Time estimate is based on

assumptions. Very few estimates are 100%

certain or unalterable.


Time Analysis Activity Number Description Duration(weeks) Earliest Start Earliest Finish(ES + Duration - 1) Latest Start Latest Finish Float

Total Float Free Float

Critical Path & Activities


Determining Critical Path & Activities

Rule 1 - The early start (ES) time for a particular activity is the same as the late start(LS) time.

Rule 2 - The early finish (EF) time for a particular activity is the same as the late finish (LF) time.

Rule 3 - The ES or LS added to the duration of the activity results in the EF or LF.


Resource allocation & Scheduling(optimization)

Allocating the right resource to the right activity. eg money time labour equipment materials Logistics (support)


PRINCE Structured Project Management Method

Programme plan

Project plan

Stage plan

Team plan

PRINCE Plans

Exception plan


PRINCE Project Management Method(Contents & stage plans)

Product breakdown structure Product flow diagram Activity network Financial budget Resource requirements Risk assessment Quality plan Gantt charts Product descriptions for major products


Example Network diagrams

dr. godfried williams1 project management – topic 6 lecture content planning tools/techniques...

Documents

likely time

expected time

pessimistic time

computers time slide

optimistic time

minimum time

maximum time

normal time