dr. gene leon imf senior resident representative, jamaica ......trinidad and tobago dominican...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Gene Leon
IMF Senior Resident Representative, Jamaica
May 2, 2013
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We can and should do better
Embrace unbounded imagination
Uphold credibility as the handmaiden of ability
Adopt a holistic approach
Can KIDS be a transformative vision?
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Take a hard look at where we are - assess initial conditions
Don‟t get stuck in “glue” – denial is probably the greatest impediment to growth
Summon the „fire‟ to transform – need emotion (passion), confidence, and discipline
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0
100
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800
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1000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
GDP per capita
Trinidad and Tobago St. Lucia Chile Singapore
base= 1980
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
base= 1995
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-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Average Real GDP Growth (%)
Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia
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-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Current Account (% of GDP)
Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia
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0 50 100 150 200
St Kitts and Nevis
Jamaica
Grenada
Barbados
Average
Dominica
St Lucia
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Trinidad and Tobago
Dominican Republic
Haiti
Caribbean: Public Debt-to-GDP, 2011(Percent)
Source: IMF staff calculations.
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-10
-5
0
5
10
Average Overall Public Sector Balance (% of GDP)
Barbados St. Lucia Trinidad & Tobago
10
St Lucia performed best in…
88
69
64
53
37
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Barbados
Trinidad and Tobago
Ghana
St Lucia
Chile
Singapore
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St Lucia performed best in… 020406080
100120
Starting a Business
Dealing with Construction
Permits
Getting Electricity Protecting Investors
Paying Taxes
Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago
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0
50
100
150
200
Registering Property
Getting Credit
Trading Across Borders
Enforcing Contract
Resolving Insolvency
Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Barbados Chile Ghana Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago
Corruption Perception Index
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Ghana St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago
Barbados Chile Singapore
Human Development Index
Halving poverty requires rapid sustained economic growth and a reduction in inequality
Focusing social spending on reducing poverty and hunger, and for investing in human capital
Strengthening social institutions to ensure transparency, efficiency, and accountability
Increasing investment in infrastructure
Implementing early warning systems to reduce vulnerability to natural disasters
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Requires:
◦ Unbounded Imagination
◦ Unlimited exploration
◦ Departure from current paradigm
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Address core areas of development
◦ Consider resource and financial constraints
◦ Develop clear prioritization relative to objectives
◦ Pay attention to sequencing
◦ Stay the course
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In general, we are net importers of: ◦ Capital
◦ Skills
◦ Technology
◦ Energy
Can we be net exporters?
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Transform
Exchange
Create
Extinguish
Transfer
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Build consensus for implementation
◦ Government
◦ Political Parties
◦ Private Sector
◦ Civil Society
◦ Thought Leaders
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Ability takes us 50 percent of the way, the last 50 percent is our choices
Choices build or break credibility
Some choices are more critical than others
Not all choices are equal
(critical)
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Embrace good governance
◦ Transparency
◦ Accountability
◦ Responsibility
◦ Communication
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Governance covers:
◦ Economic policies and regulatory framework
◦ Adherence to the rule of law
◦ Anti-corruption policies that promote trust and build integrity
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Macro Economic
& Financial
Stability
Social
Development
Regulatory
Environment
Institutional
Building
Global
External
Environment
Promotes a functional view to economic development
Fosters linkages
Reduces self-serving behaviors
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Beliefs
Potential
Action
Results
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Technology
Physical Capital
Human Capital
Natural Resources
Social Infrastructure
Aggregate Production Function
REAL GDP
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Natural Resources
Industry
Gas, Oil, Gold
Manufacturing
Qatar Saudi Arabia South Africa
Brazil Germany
Services Logistics, Financial Panama Cayman
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Technology
Physical Capital
Human Capital
Natural Resources
Social Infra-
structure
Aggregate Production Function
REAL GDP
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Knowledge Accumulation
Innovation Diagnostics
Strategies
Develop a value-chain around a backbone
o Infinite supply of knowledge
o vs unlimited supplies of labour (Lewis)
o Creation of high value-added industries
o Can afford higher than subsistence wage
o Many modalities of implementation
o No natural comparative disadvantage to limit boundaries
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KIDS
Avoid thinking there are limits to small physical size or critical mass (economic space)
o Forge linkages across networks (CoPs)
Maintain competitive advantage
o Embrace dynamic change
o Invest in R&D – forward looking vision
o CAPSICUM [Caribbean Association for Plant Science, Industry, Commerce and Use in Medicine]
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KIDS
Archive our cumulated experience in a regional database
Share benefits of sourcing, data entry, and classification
Utilize the accumulated experience of our richly talented diaspora
Broaden with successful endeavors
from the global village
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KIDS
Promote success factors – constant in human existence: o Leverage information into value-added
products
o Create a locus of knowledge excellence
o Leverage educational establishments as complementary knowledge centers
o Establish knowledge tourism
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KIDS
Develop a knowledge locus able to craft specific strategic solutions
Consult to foreign corporations on success
factors relating to opportunities in the region or elsewhere
Develop sub-field specialties at the regional level
Become a net exporter of knowledge capital
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KIDS
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A group of people who share a concern or a passion for something they do and learn how to do it better as they interact regularly (Etienne Wenger)
(e.g., RATS; Farmers)
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Community
of Practice
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Domain: Passion and interest of the
members drives their need to learn
Community: Relationships and
collective learning bind members
together over time
Practice: A shared repertoire of
resources influences members’
work
Community
of Practice
•Standardize best practices, create consistency
•Organize and manage a body of knowledge for members‟ use
Knowledge
Transfer
•Develop a particular capability
•Build and apply intellectual capital to solve challenges
Knowledge
Application
•Create a breakthrough of ideas, knowledge and practices
•Cross boundaries, and capture emerging approaches
Knowledge
Diffusion
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• Improved outcomes
•Efficiencies
• Index and store
•Publish to database
•Collect, vet and store
information and best
practices
•Lower cost
•Reduce Risk
Drivers Key
Activities
Reward Technology
Queensland Police Service
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•Professional assistance
•Creative inspiration
•Greater adoption and
diffusion
•Library
•Threaded discussion
•Enlist key experts
•Build intellectual capital
•Synthesize and apply
knowledge
•Technical Excellence
•Thought Leadership
Drivers Key
Activities
Reward Technology
* Fujitsu Akisai Cloud Initiative
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•Competitive edge
•Entrepreneurship
Resources and Skills
•Face-to-face forums
•Teleconference
•Social media discussions
•Create new
breakthroughs
•Foster adoption of new
approaches
•Technical leadership
Drivers Key
Activities
Reward Technology
Anguilla Commercial Online Registration Network
Can we develop dynamic and sustainable new paradigms? Yes!
Need bold leadership and vision
But buy-in and concerted and collective national responsibility are essential
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Uncertainty Adulthood
Imagination Holistic
Change
KIDS
Responsibility
Credibility Safety Net
Governance
Integrity
Timing Transformative
Vision Create
Emot
ion
Passion
Confidence
Discipline
High Value-Added
Proa
ctive
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