dr carl o’brien acom vice-chair

1

Dr Carl O’Brien

ACOM Vice-chair

Presentation to the BSRACPresentation to the BSRAC

Demersal Working GroupDemersal Working Group

Tuesday 9Tuesday 9thth June 2009 June 2009

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and FisheriesMinistry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries

Copenhagen, DenmarkCopenhagen, Denmark

ICES’ advice for 2010

• Released on the ICES’ web-site on 29th May 2009

• Advice released concerns:– Cod, herring, sprat and salmon stocks– Sea trout and flatfishes– EC request on multi-annual management plan for

Baltic pelagic stocks

• Advice for Western Baltic herring is being developed in conjunction with the advice on North Sea herring and will be released on 26th June 2009


• Advice on pelagic stocks:

– Herring (excluding Western Baltic) and sprat

will be presented by Steen Christensen on behalf of ICES on 15th June 2009.


1. General approach

2. Benchmarking

3. Management plan evaluation

4. Work programme (calendar dates)

ICES’ advice process - aspects

1. • Begins with an assessment of the status of the fish

stocks involving scientists from the Baltic countries• The assessments are reviewed by experts not involved

with the assessments• Draft advice is developed based on this reviewed

assessment by scientists from the Baltic countries and the reviewers

• Advice is approved by the ICES’ Advisory Committee (ACOM):– constituted by one scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member

countries plus a chair and four vice-chairs

ICES’ advice process - general

2. • Comprehensive and thorough investigation

– Biology … data … models … etcetera

• Inclusive process– Scientists … industry … policy … stakeholders …

• Stocks benchmarked in 2009 include:– Western Baltic cod– Eastern Baltic cod

• Results presented and discussed at BSRAC meeting on 18th March 2009

ICES’ advice process - benchmarking

3. • EC cod management plan evaluated by ICES in early March 2009:

– Western Baltic cod• Aim to reach and maintain a fishing mortality rate at 0.6; annual reduction

of fishing mortality by 10%

– Eastern Baltic cod• Aim to reach a fishing mortality rate no higher than 0.3; annual reduction of

fishing mortality by 10%

• Review Group on Cod Management Plans (16th – 27th March 2009)

– Coby Needle, UK– Jan Horbowy, Poland– Alexandre Kempf. Germany

ICES’ management plan evaluation

• ICES assumed that:

i. Current settings of the assessment model are largely maintained

ii. Effort reduction is fully achievediii. Biological parameters as assumed unchanged in the medium-

termiv. Exploitation pattern remains unchangedv. Observation error remains in the range of magnitude tested

• ICES concluded that each management plan is in accordance with the precautionary approach

– Applying the plan in its current design– Reference year of 2015

ICES’ management plan evaluation

4. • ICES’ WKROUND (16th – 23rd January 2009)

– Chair (Pamela Mace, New Zealand)– ICES’ co-ordinators (Chris Darby, Eero Aro)

• ICES’ Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group(22nd – 28th April 2009)

– Chair (Steen Christensen, Denmark)

• ICES’ Baltic Sea Review Group(11th – 15th May 2009)

– Chair (Asgeir Aglen, Norway)• ICES’ Baltic Sea Advice Drafting Group

(18th – 20th May 2009)– Chair (Reidar Toresen, Norway)

• ICES’ Advisory Committee(25th May 2009)

– Chair (Carl O’Brien, ICES)– Observers (Niki Sporrong, Ottilia Thoreson)

ICES’ advice process - dates

MP evaluation

10

Baltic cod and flatfish Baltic cod and flatfish stocksstocks


Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24– Estimated fishing mortality above target and has been

stable during the last three years– Discard estimates are considered uncertain, but not

very large compared to landings


Fishing Mortality

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

F (

ag

es 3

-6)

Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24– Recent recruitments have been weak– Surveys indicate that the 2008 year-class may be the

strongest since the 2003 year-class


Recruitment (age 1)

050

100150200250300350400450

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Recru

itm

en

t in

millio

ns

Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24– Estimated biomass less than Bpa (23 kt)

– Benchmark process has revised the time-series of weights-at-age and proportion mature-at-age


Spawning Stock Biomass

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

SS

B in

1000 t

• Historical performance– Gives results of recent assessments for spawning stock biomass, fishing

mortality and recruitment• Possible retrospective over-estimation of fishing mortality and under-

estimation of spawning stock biomass– Less pronounced than previous analytical method used by ICES– Within confidence limits


Cod in Subdivisions 22 - 24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1990 1995 2000 20050

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

1990 1995 2000 2005

Billions


Rationale Human Consumption

(2010)

Basis F Total(2010)

F HC

(2010)

F Disc

(2010)

Catch Total(2010)

Discards (2010)

SSB (2011)

%SSB change

1)

%TAC

change2)

Zero catch 0 F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 32.3 85% -100%

High long-term yield 8.6 Fsq*0.375 0.31 0.29 0.02 9.8 1.2 26.4 51% -47%

15.0 Fsq *0.7250.59 0.56 0.03 17.2 2.2 22.0 26%

-8%

Management plan 17.7 Fsq *0.9 0.74 0.70 0.04 20.3 2.6 20.1 16% +9%

Precautionary approach 13.3 B2011>Bpa 0.51 0.49 0.03 15.2 1.9 23.1 33% -19%

Status quo 7.0 Fsq*0.3 0.25 0.23 0.01 8.0 1.0 27.4 58% -57%

12.8 Fsq *0.60.49 0.47 0.03 14.7 1.9 23.4 35%

-21%

16.2 Fsq *0.8 0.66 0.62 0.03 18.6 2.4 21.2 22% 0%

17.7 Fsq *0.9 0.74 0.70 0.04 20.3 2.6 20.1 16% +9%

19.2 Fsq *1.0 0.82 0.78 0.04 22.1 2.9 19.2 10% 17%

20.6 Fsq *1.1 0.90 0.86 0.05 23.6 3.1 18.2 5% 26%

24.2 Fsq *1.4 1.15 1.09 0.06 28.0 3.7 15.8 -9% 48%

27.3 Fsq *1.7 1.39 1.32 0.07 31.6 4.3 13.8 -21% 67%

Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Estimated fishing mortality in 2008 uncertain but below Fpa (0.6) – Strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality– Estimated mis-reporting has decreased to 6% in 2008,

compared to 32-45% in previous years– Discard estimates are uncertain but not high compared to

landings


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

F(a

ge

s 4

-7)

Fishing Mortality

F

Flim

Fpa

Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Recruitment has been low over the last 20 years– 2005 and 2006 year-classes are estimated to be the

strongest in 20 years


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

mil

lio

ns

Recruitment (age 2)

Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Estimated spawning stock biomass in 2008 is at a low

level but estimated to be twice as high as in 2005– Biomass reference points not defined


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

SS

B i

n 1

00

0 t

Spawning Stock Biomass

• Historical performance– Gives results of recent assessments for spawning stock biomass, fishing

mortality and recruitment• No problems!

– Note that whilst the estimated fishing mortality for 2008 is considered to be rather uncertain, there is strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1990 1995 2000 2005

Fishing mortality: 4-7

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1990 1995 2000 2005

Billions

Recruitment. Age: 2


Rationale Landings (2010)1

Basis Total F(2010)

F Lan-dings (2010)1

F Discards (2010)

Discards(2010)

Total Catch(2010)1

)

SSB(2011)

%SSB change 2)

%TAC change 3)

Zero catch 0.0 F=0 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.0 469.2 45% -100%

Status quo 17.6 Fsq *0.2 0.05 0.05 0.001 0.50 18.1 449.4 39% -64%

42.6 Fsq *0.5 0.12 0.12 0.001 1.22 43.8 421.4 30% -14%

62.1 Fsq *0.75 0.18 0.18 0.002 1.80 63.9 399.6 23% 26%

73.4 Fsq *0.9 0.22 0.21 0.002 2.13 75.5 387.1 19% 49%

80.7 Fsq *1 0.24 0.24 0.003 2.36 83.0 378.9 17% 63%

98.2 Fsq *1.25 0.30 0.30 0.003 2.90 101.1 359.4 11% 99%

114.8 Fsq *1.5 0.36 0.36 0.004 3.43 118.2 341.0 5% 133%

130.5 Fsq *1.75 0.42 0.42 0.005 3.94 134.5 323.7 0% 164%

145.5 Fsq *2 0.48 0.48 0.005 4.44 149.9 307.2 -5% 195%

Precautionary limits

21.7 F(pa) *0.1 0.06 0.06 0.001 0.61 22.3 444.8 37% -56%

52.2 F(pa) *0.25 0.15 0.15 0.002 1.50 53.7 410.7 27% 6%

97.7 F(pa) *0.5 0.30 0.30 0.003 2.88 100.6 360.0 11% 98%

137.4 F(pa) *0.75 0.45 0.45 0.005 4.17 141.6 316.1 -3% 178%

162.6 F(pa) *0.9 0.54 0.53 0.006 4.96 167.6 288.1 -11% 229%

180.7 Fpa = Fsq *2.61 0.60 0.59 0.007 5.52 186.2 268.0 -17% 266%

198.8 F(pa) *1.1 0.66 0.65 0.007 6.07 204.8 247.9 -24% 303%

225.9 F(pa) *1.25 0.75 0.74 0.008 6.89 232.8 217.7 -33% 357%

271.1 F(pa) *1.5 0.90 0.89 0.010 8.27 279.3 167.4 -48% 449%

Management plan 56.8 +15% TAC deviation 4) 0.16 0.16 0.002 1.64 58.4 405.6 25% 15%

21

Baltic flatfish stocksBaltic flatfish stocks

… … no advice categoryno advice category


Flounder in Subdivisions 22-32– Stock structure is not clear (migration studies)– Uncertainties in age-reading are inadequate to establish reliable

assessments based on commercial landings data and to evaluate stock trends

– Considerable uncertainty about the level of discarding– State of the stock is unknown– No scientific basis for an advice

• Future analytical assessment– Improvement in basic data quality– Age-reading exchange programmes and reference collection of

otoliths– Discard sampling and analyses


• Landings have increased since the late 1990s


Flounder in SD 24 - 25 Total Landing [metric tonnes]

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

SD other

SD 25

SD 24

Brill in Subdivisions 22-32– Available information (landings: 1994-1996 ?)

is inadequate to evaluate stock trends– State of the stock is unknown– No scientific basis for an advice


Landings

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

La

nd

ing

s in

t

Dab in Subdivisions 22-32– Available information (landings) is inadequate

to evaluate stock trends– State of the stock is unknown– No scientific basis for an advice


Landings

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Land

ings

in t

Plaice in Subdivisions 22-32– Available information (landings) is inadequate



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Lan

din

gs in

t

Landings

Turbot in Subdivisions 22-32– Available information (landings) is inadequate



Landings

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,4001965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Land

ings

in t

28

Baltic cod and flatfish Baltic cod and flatfish stocks:stocks:

Comments and questionsComments and questions


dr carl o’brien acom vice-chair

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