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Yuri van Geest
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The best vision on the future is
peripheral vision
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Accelerating Technologies
Al Robotics Biotech Nanotech Medicine Neuroscience Energy Computing
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Exponential Technologies
Declining Costs Increasing Capabilities
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Audi RS 7 - Autonomous Car
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Reconstruction of brain activity and dreams
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Google & NASA - Quantum Computing
The D-Wave 2X quantum computer is 100 million times faster than a conventional computer with a proof-of-concept optimization problem. Leaps in Big Data and AI.
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NANO-MEMS (chips)& PAYMENTS GATX
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Platforms e.g.:
Graphene-based semiconductor
MEMS, NEMS, GPU’s
LED Technologies
Body Scan
Plant-based technologies
from WiFi to LiFi, wireless comm. by light
Hydrogen Technology
Energy Storage
Quantum Computing
World Data Base
Solar Panels & Solar Nanocoatings
LiFi Platform-of-platform
light-based technologies
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“Light, the essence of communication in the Universe”
Female of Lampyris noctiluca,
the Common Glowworm beetle The fungus Panellus stipticus Bobtail squid,
Euprymna berryi
Firefly
Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba
Every organism emits light ( bioluminescence) , which is unique
in wavelength, duration, timing and rhythms (information & communication)
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“The human body literally glimmers”
The light intensity emitted by
the body is 1000 times lower
than the sensitivity of our
naked eyes.
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“The average half life of a business competency has dropped from 30 years in
1984 to 5 years today”
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“89% of the Fortune 500 companies from 1955
are not on the list today”
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“The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has decreased from: 67 years (1920’s) to
15 years (today)”
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“In the next 10 years 40% of all S&P 500
companies will disappear from
this list”
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Market Cap to a Billion
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Why are there ExOs?
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Linear > Exponential
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Scarcity > Abundance
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Time to scale the organization
Source: McKinsey 7S model
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What are ExOs?
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An Exponential Organization (ExO) is one whose impact (or output) is disproportionally large — at least 10x larger — compared to its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage exponential technologies.
Definition
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Software is eating the world, in all sectors In the future every company will become a software company
Marc Andreessen founder of Netscape, renowned Venture Capitalist Andreessen-Horowitz
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Estimated Share of Capex by Industry
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Attributes
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MTP
Attributes
The Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP) is the higher, aspirational purpose of the organization, capturing the hearts and minds of those both inside and (especially) outside of the organization.
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Selecting an MTP
“Organize the world’s information”
“Ideas worth spreading”
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Attributes
Most ExOs are attracting and leveraging their community or the general public to scale. The crowd can be leveraged by harnessing creativity, innovation, validation and even funding.
Community & Crowd
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Community & Crowd
Attributes
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Attributes
As the world turns into data and information, ExOs are leveraging Algorithms, including Machine Learning and Deep Learning to get new insights about their customers and products.
Algorithms
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Attributes
ExOs use the Lean Startup & Design Thinking methodology and other techniques inside different organizational departments to constantly experiment with new ideas and processes, culturally enabling risk-taking and failure. Processes are constantly being tweaked with fast feedback loops.
Experimentation
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Linear vs Exponential
Strategy based on extrapolation from past
(5-year plans)
Strategy based on MTP and customer insights
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Linear vs Exponential
Linear, sequential thinking
Experimentation and feedback loops
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Linear vs Exponential
Process inflexibility and risk intolerance
Flexibility and smart failure celebration
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MTP
Staff on Demand Interfaces
Community & Crowd Dashboards
Algorithms Experimentation
Leveraged Assets Autonomy
Engagement Social
GitHub - GitHub is an open source code and collaboration community with 6.5 million members, 14.2 million repositories and market cap of $7B. Key differentiator: technical infrastructure of the internet as organizational design
Best ExOs
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MTP
Staff on Demand Interfaces
Community & Crowd Dashboards
Algorithms Experimentation
Leveraged Assets Autonomy
Engagement Social
Haier - Chinese appliance maker with 80,000 employees organized in 2005 in 2,000 self-managed units with decision-making authority (Autonomy). Market cap grew from $20B to $60B today in the last 3 years.
Corporate Example
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How to create ExOs?
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Strategies for Corporates
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Yuri van Geest Co-Author Exponential Organizations
+31 6 113 19 290 @vangeest
www.exponentialorgs.com