Download - Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis
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Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis
1st Q ’07 -2.2 -2.92nd Q ’07 -2.4 -5.3
1st H ’07 -2.4 -4.3
July ’07 +1.5 -1.2Y-T-D -1.9 -3.9
TVB Estimates GTSS
Spot TV % Change Base Total
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Automotive -8.4Retail -2.7Telecommunications 8.2Restaurants 0.4Government & Organizations -22.5Insurance & Real Estate -10.6Media & Advertising 8.6Financial -7.8Travel, Hotels & Resorts 9.2Schools, Camps, Seminars -3.5
1st Half 2007 Category Analysis
Source: TNS Media Intelligence
% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories 2007/2006
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Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2007
Chrysler-Cerberus 765,905 757,118 1.2Ford 1,280,059 1,370,501 -6.6General Motors 1,417,699 1,779,371 -20.3
Subtotal Big 3 3,463,664 3,906,992 -11.3
BMW 124,421 108,129 15.1Daimler 124,340 151,978 -18.2Honda 548,827 529,324 3.7Hyundai/KIA 461,723 569,389 -18.9Isuzu 1,401 2,629 -46.7Mazda 178,661 177,846 0.5Mitsubishi 104,224 60,231 73.0Nissan 563,851 525,486 7.3Toyota 1,023,629 1,138,196 -10.1Volkswagen 154,900 209,232 -26.0
Subtotal All Other 3,285,980 3,472,444 -5.4
Grand Total 6,749,644 7,379,436 -8.5
Overall $ Overall $ %
Parent Co. 1st H 2007 1st H 2006 Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary
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Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2007
Chrysler-Cerberus 226,753 248,269 -8.7Ford 301,695 377,240 -20.0General Motors 339,908 416,872 -18.5
Subtotal Big 3 868,357 1,042,382 -16.7
BMW 32,773 27,400 19.6Daimler 37,983 46,159 -17.7Honda 209,035 210,022 -0.5Hyundai/KIA 103,832 126,847 -18.1Isuzu 347 310 11.9Mazda 44,084 45,639 -3.4Mitsubishi 54,071 19,978 170.7Nissan 172,453 148,324 16.3Toyota 341,662 369,652 -7.6Volkswagen 38,790 41,863 -7.3
Subtotal All Other 1,035,032 1,036,197 -0.1
Grand Total 1,903,390 2,078,579 -8.4
1st H 2007 1st H 2006Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %
Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary
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Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2007
Chrysler-Cerberus 29.6 32.8Ford 23.6 27.5General Motors 24.0 23.4
Subtotal Big 3 25.1 26.7
BMW 26.3 25.3Daimler 30.5 30.4Honda 38.1 39.7Hyundai/KIA 22.5 22.3Isuzu 24.7 11.8Mazda 24.7 25.7Mitsubishi 51.9 33.2Nissan 30.6 28.2Toyota 33.4 32.5Volkswagen 25.0 20.0
Subtotal All Other 31.5 29.8
Grand Total 28.2 28.2
1st H 2007 1st H 2006Parent Co. Spot TV Spot TV
% Share % Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary
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Automotive Spot TV Share
2001 29.02002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.1
Q1 2007 28.1 Q2 2007 28.3
AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV
Year of Share
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary
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Base Business Analysis
Year % Change
2000 8.72001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.52006 2.2Thru July 2007 -1.9
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2006/2007 Political Analysis
1st Half 506 41 -465 -91.9%
2nd Half 1,594 659 -935 -58.7%
Total 2,100 700 -1,400 -66.7%
Source: CMAG
Dollars (M) 2006 2007 $ Change % Change
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Now The Year Ahead
What Can We Expect?
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Here’s What the Financial Broadcast Analysts
Are Saying About 2008
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8 Financial Firms Participated
Bear StearnsBMO Capital MarketsGabelliJP MorganMerrill LynchThomas WeiselVogel CapitalWachovia Securities
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Bear Stearns
Local Spot 2.5 Nat’l Spot 15.0Network 4.0Syndication 1.0Network Cable 6.5Local Cable 3.0Brdcst Online 40.0
2008(% Change)
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BMO Capital Markets
Local Spot 1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 11.0 -11.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication -1.0 -3.0Network Cable 4.0 2.0Local Cable 2.0 -1.0Brdcst Online 5.0 8.0
(% Change)2008 2009
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Gabelli & Company
Local Spot 3.0 3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -2.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication 4.0 4.0Network Cable 4.0 4.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0Brdcst Online 15.0 12.5
2008 2009(% Change)
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JPMorgan Chase
Local Spot 6.0 -2.0Nat’l Spot 8.0 -6.0Network 2.0 2.0Syndication 1.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 35.0 28.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Merrill Lynch
Local Spot 7.0 -3.5Nat’l Spot 22.5 -11.25Network 4.0 0.0Syndication 5.0 2.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Thomas Weisel Partners
Local Spot -1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 7.0 -9.0Network 3.0 -5.0Syndication 1.0 0.0Network Cable 7.0 7.0Local Cable 8.0 8.0Brdcst Online 35.0 30.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 30.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Vogel Capital
Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -1.0Network 3.0 -2.0Syndication 2.0 -2.0Network Cable 4.0 0.0Local Cable 4.0 1.0Brdcst Online 8.0 5.0Brdcst Wireless 9.0 5.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Wachovia Securities
Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 14.0 -8.0Network 4.0 3.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 3.0 3.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 50.0 50.0Brdcst Wireless 25.0 25.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Local Spot 3.3Nat’l Spot 12.2Network 3.5Syndication 1.9Network Cable 4.8Local Cable 4.4Brdcst Online 26.9Brdcst Wireless 24.7
Summary of the 2008 Financial Forecasts
(2008% Change)
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Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Local Spot
-2-1012345678
Local Spot Ranges% Change
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Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Nat’l Spot
0
5
10
15
20
25
National Spot Ranges% Change
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Local Spot 3.3 -1.5Nat’l Spot 12.2 -6.9Network 3.5 0.3Syndication 1.9 0.4Network Cable 4.8 3.7Local Cable 4.4 3.7Brdcst Online 26.9 22.3Brdcst Wireless 24.7 20.0
Summary of the Financial Forecasts
2008 2009(% Change)
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Now What the Other Experts are Predicting
for 2008 & 2009
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Universal McCann
Local Spot 5.5 3.0Nat’l Spot 9.0 -2.0Network 6.5 1.0Syndication 3.0 2.0Network Cable 6.0 3.5Local Cable 10.0 4.0Brdcst Online 12.0 9.0Brdcst Wireless 200.0 150.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Local Spot 5.5 -4.5Nat’l Spot 9.4 -5.0Network 7.7 -3.4Syndication 4.7 2.8Network Cable 6.8 3.5Spot Cable 10.6 5.5Brdcst Online 35.0 24.7Brdcst Wireless 111.4 72.2
2008 2009(% Change)
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Jack Myers
Total Spot 13.5 -9.5Network 3.0 -1.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 3.0Local Cable 7.0 2.0Brdcst Online 35.0 75.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 120.0
2008 2009(% Change)
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BIA Financial
Total Spot 9.9 -1.6
2008 2009(% Change)
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Total Spot 9.4 -3.7Network 5.7 -1.1Syndication 3.2 1.9Network Cable 5.9 3.3Local Cable 9.2 3.8Brdcst Online 27.3 36.2Brdcst Wireless 117.1 114.1
Summary of Other IndustryExperts’ Forecasts
2008 2009(% Change)
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TV Rep Surveyfor 2008-2009
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National Spot 14.9 -8.8
National Online 69.4 40.6
National Wireless 50.0 62.5
11 Participants
TV Rep Survey
2008 2009(% Change)
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2008 Rep Survey
Mean14.9%
0
5
10
15
20
25
% Change
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And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2008 & 2009
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Market Drivers – 2008
Presidential year Political Cycle…with no incumbent.The consumer economy…credit crunch impacts…housing, discretionary spendingAuto sales…truck market shares…passenger cars“New media” momentum…beyond the early adapters…more scrutinyPressure on business practices and processesOlympics
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TVB Forecast 2008
Local Spot +5.0 to + 6.0Nat’l Spot +14.0 to + 16.0Total Spot +9.0 to + 10.0Station Website +40.0 to + 50.0Station Wireless +50.0 to + 75.0
Network +4.0 to + 6.0Syndication +3.0 to + 4.0Network Cable +5.0 to + 7.0Local Cable +5.0 to + 7.0
(% Change)
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Borrell Projection – Total Local Online
Source: © 2007, Borrell Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.
Local Online Ad Revenue Trends 2007 - 2010
$ in Millions
$4,810
$5,857
$243 $466$1,170 $1,398
$1,650$2,078
$2,687
$7,713
$8,896$9,500 $9,308
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
Mill
ions
Local E-Mail Ads
Local Paid Search
Local Banners/Listings
Local E-Mail Ads $151 $233 $291 $454 $691
Local Paid Search $420 $938 $1,837 $2,914 $3,657 $4,073
Local Banners/Listings $243 $466 $1,170 $1,398 $1,650 $2,078 $2,687 $4,390 $4,768 $5,643 $5,691 $5,389 $4,544
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f
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Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online
L oc al B roadc as t T V Web R evenues ($ in millions )
$75.0 $119.0$283.2
$446.6
$686.6
$978.8
$1,309.6
$1,592.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Borrell Associates
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(% Change)
TVB Forecast 2009
Local Spot +1.0 to +3.0
Nat’l Spot -10.0 to -8.0
Total Spot -4.0 to -2.0
Station Website +35.0 to +45.0
Station Wireless +50.0 to +75.0
Network -1.0 to +1.0
Syndication 0.0 to +2.0
Network Cable +1.0 to +3.0
Local Cable +1.0 to +3.0
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Base Business Comparison
2004 4.6% $1,600 10.1%2005 -1.5% 560 -5.5%2006 2.2% 2,100 8.5%2007(e) 0.3% 700 -5.0%2008(e) 2.0% 2,635 9.5%
TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)
Source: CMAG
(% Change)
At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
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2002 +11.9
2003 -2.4
2004 +10.1
2005 -5.5
2006 +8.5
2007* -5.0
2008* +9.5
2009* -3.0
Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.
+0.5
+5.8
+2.8
+5.1
Total Spot TV: 2 Year Increments
* TVB Estimate. Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
* TVB Estimate.
(% Change)
At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
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Index of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(‘94-’95 = 100)
At Mid-Point of Forecast Range
126.5133.9
137.6144.7
'02-'03 '04-'05 '06-'07 '08-'09
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Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations
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