www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Fuels Used in Electricity Generation
For
U.S. Nuclear Infrastructure Council
June 05, 2013 | Washington, DC
By
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation
2
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
U.S. electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
25%
19%
42%
13%
1%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2011 ProjectionsHistory
17%
16%
35%
30%
1%
1993
53%
13%
19%
11%
4%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Key results from the AEO2013 reference case relating to the electric power sector
• While coal still remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, it’s role declines as natural gas and renewables pick up increasing market share
• Natural gas production is higher throughout the reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market
• Role of nuclear power in the U.S. generation mix stays relatively steady
• The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 reference case
• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Why we might could will be wrong?
• Changing policies and regulations
• Changing consumer preferences
• Faster / slower economic growth
• Faster / slower technological progress
• Different relative fuel prices
• Technological breakthroughs
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Electricity demand: growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040
19501954
19581962
19661970
19741978
19821986
19901994
19982002
20062010
20142018
20222026
20302034
2038-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
History Projections
2011
Electricity Use
GDP 2.4%
0.9%
2011 – 2040average
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Natural gas and coal prices: coal regains competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20342036
20382040
0
2
4
6
8
ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
0
2
4
6
8
10
History Projections
2011 2011 dollars per Btu
History Projections2011
Competitive parity
Energy prices to the electric power sector
Coal
Natural gas
7
Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
shale gas production (dry)
billion cubic feet per day
Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30Rest of US
Marcellus (PA and WV)
Haynesville (LA and TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Bakken (ND)
Woodford (OK)
Fayetteville (AR)
Barnett (TX)
Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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New power plant costs: levelized cost of electricitycosts for new U.S. electricity power plants in 2018
2011 dollars per megawatthour
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Offshore Wind
Solar PV
Pulverized Coal with CCS
IGCC Coal
Biomass
Nuclear
Pulverized Coal
Natural Gas Combined Cycle with CCS
Onshore Wind
Natural Gas Combined Cycle
0 50 100 150 200 250
Levelized Capital Cost
Fixed O&M Cost
Variable O&M Cost Including Fuel
Transmission Costs
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, based on Form EIA-923
National Average Minimum Maximum
Coal 42% 0% 80%
Natural Gas 25% 2% 87%
Nuclear 19% 0% 41%
Renewables 13% 1% 65%
Oil / Other 1% 0% 5%
Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
National Average Minimum Maximum
Coal 35% 0% 69%
Natural Gas 30% 2% 81%
Nuclear 17% 0% 36%
Renewables 16% 1% 53%
Oil / Other 1% 0% 2%
Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Additions to electricity generation capacity, 1985-2040U.S. electricity generation capacity additions
gigawatts
Source: EIA Form 860 & EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20092012
20152018
20212024
20272030
20332036
20390
10
20
30
40
50
60 Coal HydroNatural Gas Nuclear WindSolar
ProjectionHistory
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Changes in nuclear capacity for the AEO2013 reference case
gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
101.18.0
5.5 5.5 7.1113.1
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Nuclear relevant side cases in AEO2013
• High/low nuclear
• High/low oil and gas resource
• Small modular reactors (SMRs) ???
• CO2 fee cases
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
14
High Oil and Gas Resource (low natural gas prices)
Low Oil and Gas Resource (high natural gas prices)
Low Nuclear
High Nuclear
Reference
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
capacity additions
gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Planned Unplanned
Nuclear capacity additions in AEO2013 vary under different assumptions
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
15
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
20162018
20202022
20242026
20282030
20322034
20362038
20400
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
If natural gas prices stay low, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future
billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Natural Gas
Reference
High Oil and Natural Gas Resource
Projections
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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2011
Reference
Low Oil and Gas Resource
High Oil and Gas Resource
Low Coal Cost
High Coal Cost
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250
capacity
gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Oil/gas steam
Natural gas combined cycle
Nuclear
Natural gas combustion turbine
Renewable/other
2040
Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
17
Small Modular Reactors (SMR)
• SMR technology differs from traditional, large-scale light-water reactor technology in both reactor size and plant scalability
• EIA conducted a side case to evaluate the effect of a shorter construction period on future nuclear capacity expansion
• The case showed that there are potential cost saving from the shorter construction periods but uncertainty about potential future operations costs remains.
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side casesU.S. electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
0
1
2
3
4
52013 Reference Case
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
2011
24%
13%
19%
42%
30%
16%
17%
35%
Natural gas
$15 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
34%
22%
27%
16%
$25 Carbon Fee
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
34%
23%
38%
4%
19
U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demandU.S. liquid fuel supply
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20122015
20182021
20242027
20302033
20362039
0
5
10
15
20
25
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
37%
ProjectionsHistory
Petroleum Exports
-8%
32% STEO forecast for 2014
2014
40%
2012
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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Keynote Speakers
Dr. Ernest J. MonizU.S. Secretary of Energy
Lisa MurkowskiUnited States Senator
Alaska
Thomas FanningChairman, President and CEO
Southern Company
Aldo Flores-QuirogaSecretary GeneralInternational Energy Forum
Hans RoslingChairmanGapminder
EIA.gov
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
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For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual