PAUL REIG, TOM PARRIS, AND FRANCIS GASSERT February 20, 2013
AQUEDUCT DATA & METHODOLOGY
AGENDA
Introduction
Modeling Water Supply and Demand – Tom Parris
Aqueduct Indicators – Paul Reig
Aggregation and scoring – Francis Gassert
Q&A
Photo: NOAA
RISKS TO: GOVERNMENTSCOMPANIES INVESTORS
DETAILED, COMPARABLE, GLOBAL WATER RISK INFORMATION
Photo: NASA
UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
WHERE WE PILOT TESTED: KEY BASINS
HOW WE EVOLVED: GLOBAL MAPPING
BUILDING ON SCIENCE: EXPERT REVIEWERS
CDP Water Disclosure Project
Ceres
Columbia University
Deloitte Consulting LLP
Global Adaptation Institute
Global Water Strategies
Nanjing University
National Geographic
Pacific Institute
The Nature Conservancy
The World Bank
US Environmental Protection Agency
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
University of Virginia
Water Footprint Network
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Yale University
DATA: SELECTION CRITERIA
Step 1: Literature review
Step 2: Public domain & global coverage
Step 3: Comparative analysis to evaluate: granularity, time coverage source
Step 4: Selection of data source
MODELING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Tom Parris | Vice President | ISciences
UNDERSTANDING RISK: AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
OVERVIEW
Catchments
Demand: Withdrawals & consumptive use
Source: Runoff
Flow accumulation
Supply: Total and available blue water
Flow accumulator
Total blue water (Bt)
Available blue water (Ba)
Hydrologically connected catchments
Runoff Withdrawals & consumptive use
MODELING: WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Catchments
Global Drainage Basin Database (GDBD; n=73074)
Aggregated to <100,000 km2 target
Mean area = 8804 km2 (n=14998)
CATCHMENTS
1. Source data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas
(2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World
(2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: BASELINE 2010
Withdrawal Disaggregation Methodology WATER DEMAND: INPUT DATA
Sector Variable Source
All sectors Water withdrawals FAO Aquastat Pacific Institute
GDP World Bank
Population World Bank Average annual precipitation FAO Aquastat Total renewable water supply FAO Aquastat
Sectoral water withdrawal ratio Calculated
Agricultural Irrigated area FAOSTAT
FAO Aquastat Freydank & Siebert 2008
Agricultural land area World Bank
Industrial CO2 emissions World Bank Electricity, total net generation Energy Information Administration
Coal production Energy Information Administration Refinery Processing Gain Energy Information Administration
Domestic Urban population World Bank
Start with reported national withdrawals (FAO Aquastat) by sector (domestic, industrial, agricultural) (black points)
Project using two random and two fixed effects regression models (light points)
Withdrawals reported 2008-2010 were not modeled (vertical dashed line)
Average four models to estimate national withdrawals for 2010 (dark red points)
Regressions explained 94-99% of the total variation.
WATER DEMAND: BASELINE TO 2010
Withdrawal Disaggregation Methodology
1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated
Areas (2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the
World (2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: DISAGGREGATION
Global Map of Irrigation Area
WATER DEMAND: AGRICULTURE
Nighttime Lights (2010)
WATER DEMAND: INDUSTRY
Gridded Population of the World
(2010)
Nighttime Lights (2010)
WATER DEMAND: DOMESTIC
Total withdrawals (Ut) are the sum of agricultural, domestic, and industrial withdrawals
𝑈𝑡 = 𝑈𝑎𝑎𝑎 + 𝑈𝑑𝑑𝑑 + 𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑑
WATER DEMAND: TOTAL WITHDRAWALS
1. Input data: withdrawals by sector (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) reported by country (FAO), baselined to 2010
2. Spatially disaggregate by sector Agricultural withdrawals disaggregated by Global Map of Irrigated Areas
(2000) Domestic withdrawals disaggregated by Gridded Population of the World
(2010) and Nighttime Lights (2010) Industrial withdrawals disaggregated by Nighttime Lights (2010)
3. Multiply each sector by consumptive use ratio
4. Re-aggregate to basins and sum sectoral consumptive and total withdrawals
WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE
Consumptive use (Ct) is the sum of sectoral use times the sectoral consumptive use ratio (cr) (Shiklomanov and Rodda 2003)
𝐶𝑡 = 𝑈𝑎𝑎𝑎 × 𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑎𝑎 + 𝑈𝑑𝑑𝑑 × 𝑐𝑐𝑑𝑑𝑑 + 𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑑 × 𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖𝑑
WATER DEMAND: CONSUMPTIVE USE
evaluated 4 datasets (UNH/GRDC, CFSR, MERRA-Land, GLDAS-2)
GLDAS-2, 1°, NOAH monthly (summed to annual)
1948-2008 (used 1950-2008)
directly resampled to 1km without interpolation
WATER SOURCE: RUNOFF
Runoff Precipitation minus
evapotranspiration, loss to groundwater, and increase in soil moisture.
Total Blue Water (Bt) Accumulated runoff Equivalent to naturalized flow.
MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa
runoffb Bta
Btb
Runoff Precipitation minus evaporation,
transpiration, deep groundwater recharge, and change in soil moisture
Total Blue Water Accumulated runoff Equivalent to naturalized flow
Available Blue Water (Ba) Upstream runoff minus consumptive
use, plus runoff Loosely equivalent to surface water
and shallow groundwater
MODELING: FLOW ACCUMULATION runoffa
runoffb Baa
Bab
consumptive useb
consumptive usea
Total blue water (Bt) is the sum of naturalized (uninhibited) runoff
WATER SUPPLY: TOTAL BLUE WATER
Available blue water (Ba) is the sum of upstream runoff minus consumptive use
WATER SUPPLY: AVAILABLE BLUE WATER
AQUEDUCT’S WATER RISK INDICATORS
Paul Reig | Aqueduct Project | WRI
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐁 𝐰𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐰 𝐁𝐰𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐁 =𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 𝑤𝑤𝑇𝑤𝑤𝑐𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤 (2010)
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑎𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑎𝑇𝑤 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
𝐈𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐈𝐁𝐁 𝐯𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐯𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐰𝐯 =𝑆𝑇𝑇𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑐𝑤 𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑜 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
𝐒𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐒𝐁𝐁𝐁 𝐯𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐯𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐰𝐯 =𝑆𝑇𝑇𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑐𝑤 𝑤𝑤𝑎𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑇𝑀𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑜 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑜𝑇𝑀𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑜 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
𝐔𝐔𝐁𝐰𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐔 𝐁𝐰𝐒𝐰𝐁𝐬𝐁 =𝑈𝑈𝑤𝑇𝑐𝑤𝑇𝑜 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑐𝑇𝑠𝑤 𝑐𝑇𝑈𝑇𝑐𝑤𝑇𝑜
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
Data: Lehner et al. GRanD
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
𝐔𝐔𝐁𝐰𝐰𝐁𝐁𝐔 𝐔𝐰𝐒𝐰𝐁𝐩𝐰𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐁𝐁𝐩 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 𝑜𝑐𝑇𝑜 𝑈𝑐𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐𝑇𝑤𝑤 𝑇𝑇𝑀𝑤𝑤 1950 − 2008
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 1950 − 2008
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Data: IUCN, UNEP
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
𝐑𝐁𝐰𝐈𝐰𝐁 𝐟𝐁𝐒𝐰 𝐰𝐁𝐰𝐁𝐒 =𝑈𝑈𝑤𝑇𝑐𝑤𝑇𝑜 𝑀𝑇𝑀𝑐𝑇𝑀𝑤𝑏𝑜𝑈𝑇𝑤𝑎𝑤 𝑏𝑤𝑤 (2010)
𝑀𝑤𝑇𝑀 𝑇𝑎𝑇𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑎𝑇𝑤 𝑎𝑇𝑏𝑤 𝑤𝑇𝑇𝑤𝑐 (1950 − 2008)
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
Indicator Data Source Scale
Flood occurrence Brakenridge, Dartmouth Flood Observatory Polygons
Drought severity Sheffield and Wood 1 degree raster
Groundwater stress Gleeson et al. Major aquifers
Media coverage Google Country
Access to water WHO, UNICEF Country
Threatened amphibians IUCN Red List Polygons
OTHER INDICATORS
AQUEDUCT’S WATER RISK FRAMEWORK
Francis Gassert | Aqueduct Project | WRI
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
ENABLING COMPARABILITY : THRESHOLDS
Thresholds: 1. Create categories for communication 2. Enable scoring and aggregation
Thresholds determined using: existing literature governmental or intergovernmental guidelines range and distribution of indicator values expert judgment
NORMALIZING AND SCORING
Values mapped over thresholds using continuous functions
0.1 1
0.2
2
0.4
3
0.8
4
Raw value (r) :
Score :
0
5
𝑜BWS 𝑐 = min(5, max(0,ln 𝑐 − ln 𝑇1
ln 𝑎𝑇𝑤𝑤 + 1 ))
PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATION
PUTTING IT TOGETHER : AGGREGATION
Weighted average For each region (j):
Re-normalize to display full range of relative values Final displayed “overall water risk” (sj):
𝑤𝑗 = 5𝑇𝑗 − min(𝑇)
max 𝑇 − min(𝑇)
𝑇𝑗 =∑𝑥𝑖𝑗𝑤𝑖∑𝑤𝑖
𝑜𝑇𝑐 𝑤 𝑤𝑀 {𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝑤𝑀𝑤𝑤𝑐𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑐𝑤 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑐𝑤 𝑥𝑖𝑗 ≠ 𝑀𝑏𝑇𝑇}
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
WRI Default
Agriculture
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
Electric power
Semi-conductor
Oil & Gas
Mining
Construction Materials
Textile
UNIQUE USERS : TAILORED WEIGHTING
Quantity Quality Regulatory and reputational
BALANCING INDICATORS : SETTING WEIGHTS
Exposure to risk varies– users can set own weights
Default weights set by: WRI water expert panel Corporate disclosure documentation Industry leader review
PUBLICATIONS
Aqueduct Global Maps 2.0:
http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-metadata-global
Aqueduct Water Risk Framework:
http://www.wri.org/publication/aqueduct-water-risk-framework
Aqueduct Data and Methodology: in prep
Thank you for joining!
CONTACT US
Paul Reig | [email protected] Francis Gassert | [email protected]
WRI.org/Aqueduct